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Poll: Grading The J.T. Realmuto Trade

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After several months of nonstop rumors centering on J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins finally found an offer to their liking for the superstar catcher Thursday, when they dealt him to the NL East rival Phillies. Entering the offseason, it seemed inevitable the rebuilding Marlins would part with Realmuto, who made it clear on multiple occasions going back to last winter that he was uninterested in signing an extension with the club.

At times this offseason, Realmuto drew interest from nearly half the league (14 teams), and with such a vast market for his services, Miami spent the past few months holding out for a Godfather offer from one of those clubs. In the end, the Marlins accepted a three-player return consisting of major league catcher Jorge Alfaro, who will immediately replace Realmuto in their starting lineup, two pitching prospects (right-hander Sixto Sanchez and lefty Will Stewart) and $250K in international slot money.

For the Phillies, the Realmuto acquisition is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. Coming off their seventh straight non-playoff season and sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign, the Phillies are aiming to push for a playoff spot in 2019 with newcomers Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and possibly Bryce Harper or Manny Machado helping lead the way. And Realmuto – who was the undisputed premier catcher in the game last year – will help their cause beyond the upcoming campaign, as he’s controllable through 2020.

For the Marlins, the Realmuto trade is the latest win-later move dating back to last winter, when the low-budget club traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon for futures. In Alfaro, they received a player who showed a penchant for striking out and little ability to walk from 2017-18, his first two seasons of extensive major league action. But Alfaro was nonetheless respectable at the plate during that span, and the cannon-armed 25-year-old is fresh off a season in which he earned raves from defensive metrics. To this point, then, Alfaro has been a satisfactory pro. However, whether Alfaro will continue to serve as an acceptable starter or fall backward could hinge on improving his high-strikeout, low-walk ways, especially considering he won’t keep running a career .405 batting average on balls in play.

While Alfaro’s the only current major leaguer Miami got for Realmuto, Sanchez looks like the biggest prize. Despite the 5-foot-10, 185-pounder’s diminutive stature, each of FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law rank Sanchez between fifth and 35th on their list of the majors’ top prospects. All of those outlets and individuals agree the flamethrowing Sanchez has the upside of a front-line rotation piece, and at 20 years old, he’ll  breathe new life into the Marlins’ farm system. Although Sanchez hasn’t pitched above the High-A level yet, once he gets to Miami, he could emerge as its best starter since the Jose Fernandez era came to a tragic conclusion in 2016.

Stewart, 21, is far less intriguing than Sanchez, with MLB.com ranking him as the Marlins’ No. 25 prospect. Whereas Sanchez is a potential No. 1 starter who possesses electrifying velocity, MLB.com regards Stewart as a possible back-end type whose velocity is “average.” To Stewart’s credit, though, he did post tremendous results last year at the Single-A level, where he logged a 2.06 ERA with 7.13 K/9, 1.66 BB/9 and a 62.1 percent groundball rate, mimicking the best version of Dallas Keuchel in that regard.

With Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and a bit more international spending room in tow, there’s plenty for Miami to dream on going forward. The Phillies, meanwhile, made a substantial near-term upgrade behind the plate, albeit one that cost them their previous No. 1 prospect and another promising hurler. In your estimation, how did the two teams fare in this swap? Cast your votes below…

(Phillies poll link for app users; Marlins poll link for app users)

Catcher Notes: Posey, Giants, G. Sanchez, Athletics

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A few notes from behind the plate…

  • When Giants stalwart Buster Posey underwent season-ending hip surgery last August, there was some question as to whether he’d be ready in time for Opening Day this year. While Posey’s recovery has seemingly gone well enough for him to return at the outset of the season, the Giants are going to take a “smart” and “careful” approach as they break the six-time All-Star back into action, according to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). “Even if he’s ready to carry a full catching load to start the season, I’m not sure that would be the prudent course for us,” noted Zaidi, who added that the Giants are still in the market for depth at catcher. They did sign the seasoned Rene Rivera on Friday, but he only secured a minor league deal, which still leaves the Giants with Posey and Aramis Garcia as the only catchers on their 40-man roster. Of course, they also have experienced veteran Cameron Rupp joining Rivera as credible depth heading into camp.
  • The Yankees’ Gary Sanchez is also coming off surgery, having undergone an offseason procedure on his left (non-throwing) shoulder. Sanchez is now “healthy,” per general manager Brian Cashman (via George A. King III of the New York Post), but the Yanks will mimic the Giants in being cautious with their prized backstop this spring. The 26-year-old Sanchez joined Posey among the majors’ elite catchers from 2017-18, though the former’s now looking to bounce back from a shockingly rough season. Sanchez bombed at the plate, hitting .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in 374 trips, and also drew the ire of fans and media for leading the American League in passed balls (18).
  • It’s “unlikely” the Athletics will enter the season with their current catcher tandem of Josh Phegley and Chris Herrmann, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Ultimately, the A’s may take a similar route to the one they went down last spring, when they signed a veteran (Jonathan Lucroy) in March, but the team could have a greater sense of urgency this time around because it’s leaving for Japan on March 14, Slusser notes. Free-agent backstop options are dwindling, moreover, though at least one of the available players – Matt Wieters – has piqued the Athletics’ interest.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Moose, Marlins, Alfaro, Braves, Brantley

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The Phillies have reportedly shown interest in third baseman Mike Moustakas, who could be a fallback signing if they don’t win the battle for fellow free agent Manny Machado. But now, unless the Phillies miss out on both Machado and free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, the chances of Moustakas joining the team appear especially slim. If Philadelphia signs Harper over Machado, “it seems unlikely” the club would also add Moustakas, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Rather, the Phillies would probably be content with a revamped lineup that would include Harper and other high-profile newcomers in J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, Zolecki posits. In that scenario, Maikel Franco – who, at least offensively, was similar to Moustakas in 2018 – and Scott Kingery would be their top options at third base.

Here’s the latest on a pair of Philly’s division rivals:

  • The Marlins intend to strengthen their bullpen from outside in the coming days, president of baseball operations Michael Hill told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald and other reporters Saturday.  “Hopefully, we’ll get that taken care of before pitchers take the field [on Wednesday],” said Hill, who wants a “veteran bullpen piece to help with” the unit’s younger pitchers. There’s still a good amount of familiar free-agent relievers the low-payroll Marlins should be able to afford as they seek to bolster a relief unit that was among the majors’ worst in 2018.
  • Outfielder Michael Brantley accepted Houston’s two-year, $32MM back in December, but the Braves came “very close” to matching the Astros’ offer, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. A month after losing out on Brantley, the Braves brought back the less exciting Nick Markakis on a one-year, $6MM deal to fill their vacancy in the corner outfield. For the second straight year, Markakis, Ender Inciarte and young superstar Ronald Acuna are in line to accrue the lion’s share of playing time among Braves outfielders.
  • As you’d expect, the Marlins are high on catcher Jorge Alfaro, one of the players they acquired from Philadelphia in Thursday’s blockbuster trade centering on Realmuto. Manager Don Mattingly raved about Alfaro’s arm Saturday, saying that “J.T. threw great” but “[Alfaro] throws better,” via Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Indeed, Realmuto finished second only to Alfaro in arm strength in 2018, according to Statcast, and the latter also beat out the former (and nearly every other catcher in the sport) as an overall defender, per Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. But whether Alfaro succeeds offensively will help determine how well the Marlins did in this trade, of course, and Spencer points out the 25-year-old is no sure thing at the plate. Alfaro produced respectable bottom-line results from 2017-18, a 491-plate appearance span in which he slashed .275/.332/.432 (103 wRC+). At the same time, though, he struck out in nearly 35 percent percent of trips while walking just 4.3 of the time. Mattingly acknowledged that Alfaro has work to do in that area, but the skipper noted he has an “efficient” swing and improvement’s “just a matter of approach and thinking.”

Mariners Rumors: Encarnacion, Hernandez

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After the Mariners acquired designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion from the Indians in a three-team trade in December, the retooling M’s informed the slugger they were planning on flipping him elsewhere for prospects, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. While Enarnacion did generate interest from a few other teams after Seattle acquired him, he’s still a member of the Mariners nearly two months after the fact. The reason? Potential suitors for Encarnacion have faded, Divish relays, making it possible the 36-year-old will at least open the season with the Mariners.

The Rays, Astros and White Sox were reportedly “involved” in talks for Encarnacion in late December. Tampa Bay showed no interest in trading for Encarnacion, however, even if the Mariners ate half of the remaining $25MM guarantee left on his contract, according to Divish. Meanwhile, although the Mariners did shop Encarnacion to division-rival Houston, the Astros appear content with Tyler White and Yuli Gurriel as their top DH/first base options, Divish suggests. As for the White Sox, they don’t look like a clean fit for Encarnacion given the presences of lumbering sluggers Jose Abreu and Yonder Alonso.

With Encarnacion primarily being a DH at this juncture of his career, his market’s limited to the American League, where nobody is champing at the bit to acquire him, per Divish. The Mariners’ best hope of moving Encarnacion before the season may be if a contending team’s DH/first baseman suffers an injury during the spring, then, as Divish observes. Otherwise, it appears the M’s will be left to hope Encarnacion – a once-dominant offensive force who posted a 146 wRC+ and a major league-best 231 home runs from 2012-17 – can rebuild his stock in their uniform leading up to the July and August trade deadlines. Encarnacion did belt 32 homers in 579 PAs last year – his seventh straight campaign with at least 30 HRs – though his .246/.336/.474 line and 115 wRC+ fell flat in comparison to his tremendous output over prior seasons.

Like Encarnacion, right-hander Felix Hernandez is potentially a year from free agency and may be in his last several months as a Mariner. And the M’s have even less hope of finding a taker for the formerly marvelous Hernandez, owing to both his team-high salary ($27.5MM) and the hideous 5.13 ERA/5.12 FIP he registered over 242 1/3 innings from 2017-18. Despite King Felix’s recent struggles, however, “all indications” are that he plans to his career beyond the upcoming season, Divish writes. Regardless, Hernandez will try to return to at least serving as a viable starter this year after an awful showing in 2018, when the M’s briefly relegated the 2010 AL Cy Young winner to their bullpen. Going forward, though, general manager Jerry Dipoto emphasized that the Mariners are planning on using Hernandez solely as a starter.

Padres Pursuing Mike Moustakas

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The Brewers are reportedly the front-runners to sign free-agent third baseman Mike Moustakas, but they’re facing competition from at least one team. The Padres, who have prioritized finding a third baseman this offseason, are “going after” Moustakas, according to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. San Diego first “checked in” on Moustakas earlier this winter, and Cassavell’s report indicates the club is legitimately in pursuit of the 30-year-old at this late stage of the offseason.

This is the second straight drawn-out trip to the open market for Moustakas, who was shockingly available until last March before re-signing with the Royals for a $6.5MM guarantee. While Moustakas entered last winter with designs on landing a lucrative multiyear deal, that was before the free-agent process became unkind to even the most proven veterans available. This is the second year in a row a slew of familiar names are unemployed as spring training approaches, and even elite free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado haven’t found deals to their liking yet. With that in mind, it’s not surprising Moustakas is still searching for a contract. Some of the teams that could sign Moustakas are likely awaiting Machado’s decision first, after all, and the former did turn in a 2018 showing which was almost identical to his 2017 performance.

Last year, in 152 games divided between the Royals and Brewers, Moustakas offered slightly above-average offensive numbers, hitting .251/.315/.459 (105 wRC+) with 28 home runs in 635 plate appearances. He paired that output with respectable defense at third, where he posted two DRS and a plus-one Ultimate Zone Rating, en route to 2.4 fWAR (he logged 2.1 fWAR in 598 PAs during the prior campaign).

Based on the production Moustakas has recorded in recent years and throughout most of his career, he’d give the Padres an average regular at third. Moustakas, then, is a far less compelling option than Machado – who has also drawn the Padres’ interest – but would nonetheless give the Friars a credible starter at the hot corner. It seems they’re lacking that at the moment, evidenced by the untested Ty France being their projected starter at the position, after waving goodbye to the unspectacular 2018 duo of Christian Villanueva and Cory Spangenberg earlier this offseason. While the Padres still have Wil Myers, who played 36 games at third last season, the team’s plan to shift him back to a full-time outfield role during the upcoming campaign remains intact, Cassavell hears. Likewise, big-hitting catcher prospect Francisco Mejia, who saw a bit of action at third while a member of Cleveland’s farm system, will not be a hot corner choice for San Diego, per Cassavell.

Should he sign with the Padres, Moustakas would reunite him with his friend, first baseman Eric Hosmer, as the two were teammates in Kansas City from 2011-17. However, if the Padres miss on Moustakas (not to mention Machado), they could turn their attention to another of the established third base possibilities still without jobs. Marwin Gonzalez – whom San Diego targeted earlier this winter – remains a free agent, as do Derek Dietrich, Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and ex-Padre Yangervis Solarte. Barring a trade, someone from that group may well end up in a Padres uniform before the season begins.

NL Notes: Brewers, Moustakas, Shaw, Marlins, Anderson

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A return to Milwaukee for Mike Moustakas “seems inevitable,” writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who also suspects the Crew aren’t willing to extend a multi-year offer to the 30-year-old third baseman. Moustakas, who yet again has garnered little interest in his repeat foray into the free-agent market, would figure to reprise his role as the team’s primary third baseman, shifting Travis Shaw across the diamond to second. Moose’s 105 wRC+ output was slightly down from the previous three seasons, though his hard-hit rate jumped to a career-best 41.2%. His ZiPS projection, released yesterday on FanGraphs, shines brightly, perhaps as a result: the system forecasts a 116 OPS+/3.2 WAR output for the longtime Royal, seeing him as an easily above-average big-league third baseman. MLB teams, it seems, are hardly in accord.

Here’s more from around the NL . . .

  • Milwaukee, who’s yet to tire of yo-yoing Shaw back and forth from second to third, also hasn’t begun extension talks with the now-versatile 28-year-old, reports Rosenthal. Fresh off his third 118 or better wRC+ season in four years, the former ninth-round selection of the Red Sox has found a home in Wisconsin, turning in consecutive 3.5+ fWAR campaigns in his first two seasons with the team. Peripherals paint an even better picture: Shaw upped his walk rate by nearly four percent, to 13.3, and dropped his strikeout rate to a career-low 18.4%, his first MLB season under 20 in the category. Though the minor-league track record was mostly stellar, save for two stints in AAA, the son of longtime MLB closer Jeff Shaw was never a highly-touted prospect, even in the hyped-up Boston system, and it’s certainly possible that the Brewers would like to see more before offering him a hefty chunk of change. Still, another season like the last two, and it may not be Milwaukee on the next deal’s bottom line.
  • The quartet of prospects sent from Milwaukee to Miami in the Christian Yelich deal, headlined by the trio of Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, and Isan Diaz, top 100 guys all, have yet to look the part. Still, Miami doesn’t view the return as a “lost cause,” writes Rosenthal, who notes that the Fish are still particularly high on minor-league strikeout king Harrison. Diaz, too, has flashed an intriguing power/plate-discipline combo in the upper minors, and appears poised to get his second-base shot in the upcoming campaign. Brinson, to be sure, suffered through a rookie campaign that almost could not have gone worse, but figures to get all the ship-righting opportunities he needs in the seasons to come.
  • Third baseman-turned-right fielder Brian Anderson will move back to the hot corner for 2019, tweets the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer. Anderson handled the shift with aplomb last season, posting 4 DRS and a +5 UZR on the way to an impressive 3.4 fWAR rookie campaign. Still, a young, well-rounded third baseman is a tougher find, and the Fish will surely like to test their young outfielders in the months to come. One-time incumbent Martin Prado may be on his last leg, and it seems the Marlins will again to look to the 35-year-old to fill his early-career super-utility role in 2019.

Twins Sign Lucas Duda To Minors Deal

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The Twins have signed 1B/DH Lucas Duda to a minor-league pact with an invite to Spring Training, per a team release. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that Duda will earn $1.75MM if he cracks the MLB roster, and can earn up to $1.5MM in further incentives.

Duda, 33, turned in a number of stellar seasons with the Mets in the middle part of the decade, four times posting a 120 wRC+ or better during the most pitcher-friendly era in decades. His output has tapered substantially over the last two seasons, though: a putrid second-half performance with Tampa in 2017 was followed by a below-league-average .241/.313/.418 mark over 367 PAs with the Royals and Braves last season.

Never a defensive stalwart – he was a disaster in an early-career outfield experiment – Duda’s bat, particularly against right-handed pitching, against whom he owns a robust .251/.354/.485 line, has carried him to a long and mostly-productive career. His hard-hit rate, always among the league’s best, has slipped in a bit in recent seasons, but still checked in a respectable 38.4% last season.

For the Twins, he’ll offer an excellent complement at first base to C.J. Cron, who was over 40% better against lefties than righties last season, and should serve as a serviceable strong-side platoon option at DH, were Nelson Cruz to succumb to injury. Even in a bench role, or stashed in the minors as insurance, Duda is the perfect choice to offset a righty-heavy Twins lineup.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/9/19

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The latest minor moves from around the game…

  • The Rockies have signed right-hander Alec Asher to a minor-league deal, per Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Asher, 27, has appeared briefly in the majors for the Phillies, Orioles, and Brewers; in 2015, the then-Ranger farmhand was part of the massive deadline deal that sent Cole Hamels to Texas. In 119 2/3 big-league innings, over parts of four seasons, Asher has made 38 appearances (18 starts) and pitched to a 5.18 ERA/5.24 FIP/5.23 xFIP, striking out 5.97 men per nine and walking just 2.87. An extreme fly-ball hurler, Asher seems an odd fit, even as an emergency back-end replacement, for Denver’s thin air. Pitching 70 miles to the south last season for Milwaukee’s AAA-Colorado Springs affiliate, Asher was shredded: the 6’4 righty struck out just 4.56 men per nine en route to a 6.05 ERA/5.62 FIP in 16 starts. He’ll almost surely begin the season back in the PCL, but may at some point slide in to the back end of the rotation currently occupied by a mix of Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis, and Antonio Senzatela.

Fallout From The J.T. Realmuto Trade

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Following a merciful coda to the offseason’s most protracted soap opera – a fine Philly offer, agreed upon Thursday, that finally plucked former Marlin catcher J.T. Realmuto from the clutches of South Beach – each of the oft-snubbed clubs offered their final say.

We’ll start in Atlanta, in whose court the Realmuto ball seemed to linger longest – indeed, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the team needed only to surrender two from the group of Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, and one top pitching prospect (of which Atlanta has several: each of Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, and Joey Wentz are top 100 prospects in at least one major outlet). Ozzie Albies, said to be an essential part of any Realmuto deal with Atlanta, was never a demanded centerpiece, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though certainly a substantial return, it’s a package that can’t be said, by any reasonable analysis, to be one that would have stripped the farm of the suddenly-conservative Braves to the bone.

The ask of the Dodgers, ever-cautious themselves, was two from a group of Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Lux, and Will Smith, per Heyman, in the same tweet. Ruiz and Smith, both catchers, likely won’t ever be on the field together at Chavez Ravine, and some outlets ranked neither May nor Lux inside the top 100. Both Heyman and Rosenthal concede that Cody Bellinger was the prize on which Miami initially laid its eyes, but it appears the team quickly swiveled to less-established names in the weeks to follow.

Rosenthal confirms earlier reports that the Fish first coveted outfielder Michael Conforto or Amed Rosario from the Mets, and adds that the team also needed a “top shortstop prospect,” presumably Andres Gimenez, to be added to the deal. It doesn’t appear the club pivoted to other names after the Mets balked, likely owing to the thinned-out version of the late-offseason Mets farm.

From the Yankees, the club did seek Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar, per Rosenthal, but only part of a “larger deal” that would obviously have included additional pieces. The Bombers were understandably reluctant to trade either, and the wheat of the Yankee farm – stocked mostly with high-upside, low-level types – wouldn’t have been enough to secure Realmuto’s services. The reported three-team with the Mets that would have sent Noah Syndergaard to New York was bandied about, but a copacetic swap was “never close.”

Cincinnati was both late to the fore and hesitant to move any of its top three prospects, per Rosenthal, and it doesn’t appear a deal was close there, either. Perhaps surprisingly, given the intense scrutiny of the talks, both the Twins and White Sox were “in the mix,” though prospective returns and/or offers are still in the dark.

In the end, Miami seems more than content with its return. The Fish regarded Will Stewart, the trade’s third piece, as Philadelphia’s second-best pitching prospect, per Rosenthal, ahead of near-unanimous top-100 hurler Adonis Medina, righty Spencer Howard, who placed 52nd on Keith Law’s list, and lefty JoJo Romero (66th overall, per Law). Sixto Sanchez, of course, has a decent shot to be an ace, and it’s certainly true that the club could reap more value in Jorge Alfaro alone than it would in the next two seasons with Realmuto behind the dish. The oft-pilloried asks, long said to far outstrip the two-year value of the game’s premier offseason trade target, were, in most respects, perfectly reasonable, and may have quickly been met in eras bygone. This, though, is the time for prospect hoarding, an age in which the control is treasured above all else, and those with even the slightest chance to be stars are stashed deep away, brought out only for the most earnest of window shoppers.

Royals Sign Homer Bailey To Minor League Deal

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Per Rustin Dodd of The Athletic, the Royals have signed longtime Red Homer Bailey to a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training.

Bailey, 33 in May, was part of the pre-holiday Reds-Dodgers swap that sent Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood to Cincinnati. There as a salary placeholder only, meant to offset, with the $28MM remaining on his deal, the sizable chunk still owed to Kemp, Bailey was immediately released by Los Angeles upon official approval of the deal by the Commissioner’s office.

After the 2013 season, in which Bailey parlayed a 3.49 ERA/3.31 FIP/3.34 xFIP (4.1 fWAR) campaign into a 6-year, $105MM extension, the former first-rounder has done little to nothing since. A solid, albeit injury-shortened, 2014 campaign was followed by a string of elbow troubles, kicked off by a 2015 Tommy John and culminating with a surgery, two years later, to remove bone spurs in the area.

Bailey’s 2018 was marred by right knee inflammation and a dangerous penchant for surrendering the longball – in 106 1/3 IP, Bailey allowed a staggering 23 bombs for Cincinnati, posting a 6.09 ERA/5.55 FIP mark that was only a slight decline from the year prior. Though his average fastball velocity has remained mostly steady, at 93.8 MPH, its efficacy has waned considerably: by FanGraphs’ measure, the pitch has been among the league’s worst in the category over the last two seasons, with the righty’s swinging strike rate plummeting to below 9%. Bailey, who once relied on the four-seamer over 72% of the time at its peak, has never boasted much in the way of swing-and-miss secondary stuff.

The Royals, who appear primed to enter the 2019 campaign with the underwhelming Brad Keller/Jakob Junis duo at the top of the rotation, may yet have a place for Homer at the rotation’s back end. Lingering gopher-ball issues could certainly be assuaged in the cavernous Kauffman Stadium dimensions, so perhaps the rebuilding Royals are a perfect place for Bailey to attempt a career resurrection.

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