Atkins: Blue Jays Will Prioritize Pitching, Increase Offseason Spending
The Blue Jays and their fans were surely excited to see a potential wave of young talent reach the Majors, with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio all debuting in 2019, but the team’s pitching proved to be a disaster. Toronto starters posted a combined 5.25 ERA, and that number includes Marcus Stroman‘s pre-trade contributions. Cut out his 124 2/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball, and non-Stroman Blue Jays starters recorded a 5.74 ERA.
As such, it was hardly a surprise to hear general manager Ross Atkins declare that his organization plans to “look for pitching in every possible way” this offseason when meeting with the media yesterday (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). That’s probably a bit of hyperbole, as no one’s expecting the Jays to be prime suitors for Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner. However, Atkins also suggested that simply acquiring filler won’t be good enough. Rather, the the Jays need arms they can “count on” to “contribute in significant ways.”
Currently, the Blue Jays’ rotation is virtually bereft of certainty. Trent Thornton led Toronto starters with 139 1/3 innings. But while he showed an ability to miss bats and had some positive stretches, the collective results (5.04 ERA, 4.80 FIP) were lackluster. No other pitcher currently on the Jays’ roster even tossed 70 innings as a starter. Right-hander Jacob Waguespack managed a 4.13 ERA with lesser peripherals in 65 1/3 innings. Injuries wiped out Ryan Borucki‘s season. Veteran Matt Shoemaker gave the Jays 28 2/3 innings with a 1.57 ERA (3.95 FIP) before suffering an ACL tear early in the season. Lefty Anthony Kay, acquired in the Stroman trade, should get a chance to log a high volume of innings next year.
The Blue Jays, notably, still have Shoemaker under club control. He signed last winter after being non-tendered by the Angels but only had four-plus years of service time. He’s still shy of six years of service, meaning the Blue Jays can control him via arbitration. Atkins didn’t tip his hand with regard to Shoemaker’s status, though Nicholson-Smith suggests that Shoemaker is open to a multi-year deal (Twitter link). Such an arrangement, presumably, would buy out Shoemaker’s final arbitration season and give Toronto an additional year of relatively cheap control. Simply retaining Shoemaker via arbitration wouldn’t be an onerous financial commitment, as his 2019 salary checked in at just $3.5MM.
Realistically, though, the Blue Jays shouldn’t fret much over any levels of spending. Toronto has only $29MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2020, and their arbitration class only features one player in line for a notable raise: closer Ken Giles, who’ll be an offseason trade candidate anyway. Giles is due a raise on this season’s $6.3MM salary. Beyond him, Shoemaker, Devon Travis ($1.925MM in 2019), Ryan Tepera ($1.525MM), Brandon Drury ($1.3MM), Ryan Dull ($860K), Derek Law (pre-arb) and Luke Maile (pre-arb) are the only players who are in line for raises. Travis, Dull and Maile are non-tender candidates.
To that end, Atkins indicated that the Jays plan to spend more aggressively this winter than in the past two offseasons, stating that the “overall outlay will be more significant” than last year while voicing a willingness to add salary in trades (Twitter link via Nicholson-Smith). Even looking past the market’s elite options, there’ll be useful starters for the Blue Jays to pursue. Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel and Tanner Roark are among the many second-tier options in free agency, and the trade market should offer additional names. Toronto isn’t lacking in outfield options that could be made available to other teams, with Anthony Alford, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Jonathan Davis and Billy McKinney all on the 40-man roster (in addition to the well-compensated Randal Grichuk and breakout left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.). None of that bunch is going to headline a deal for a marquee name, of course, but any could be a piece in a theoretical deal.
Looking to the team’s collection of position players, that glut of outfielders and the aforementioned emergence of several key infielders should give the team a promising (but still raw) lineup. Bichette and Biggio will comprise the team’s middle-infield tandem next season, and Atkins emphasized that the Jays are committed to Guerrero at third base, though they want him to improve his conditioning in the offseason. Danny Jansen showed pop and elite defensive skills behind the plate, even if his overall .207/.279/.360 batting line was obviously weak. He had a fairly productive three-month stretch from June to August (.243/.310/.459, 10 homers in 203 plate appearances), so there’s some hope for better days ahead.
A reunion with Justin Smoak at first base isn’t out of the question, Nicholson-Smith tweets, but the Jays have Rowdy Tellez as an option there and will likely look at more defensively versatile options in free agency. “It’d be nice to consider alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well,” Atkins said. Speculatively speaking, Todd Frazier, Neil Walker, Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko are among the many infield options on this year’s market who have experience at multiple positions, and as with the pitching market, there will be alternatives available via trade.
It should be noted that a promise of increased offseason spending doesn’t necessarily mean an increase in the team’s Major League payroll. Toronto opened the 2019 season at $114.5MM, and given the numerous pre-arbitration players occupying key roster spots, upping the actual payroll would mean taking on perhaps more than $60MM in 2020 salary alone. That may technically be plausible based on previous payroll levels — the Jays peaked at $163MM in 2017 — but team president Mark Shapiro cautioned against being the team that “wins the offseason” only to fall shy of postseason play. A more aggressive winter seems certain, but the Jays probably won’t be going for broke just yet.
Quick Hits: Kluber, Freese, Kapler
A quick look around Major League Baseball, which is now down to nine teams vying for a World Series…
- With their season having ended earlier than expected, the Indians are now facing an important decision on star right-hander Corey Kluber, who has a $17.5MM club option (or a $1MM buyout) for 2020. As of Sunday, the club’s higher-ups and Kluber hadn’t discussed his future, he told Zack Meisel of The Athletic (subscription required). It’s hard to believe the Indians would buy Kluber out, though the two-time AL Cy Young winner is coming off an abbreviated season in which he struggled to a bloated 5.80 ERA (with a much better 4.06 FIP) in 35 2/3 innings. Kluber wasn’t able to make it back after suffering a right forearm fracture May 1, thereby ending a run of five straight seasons with 200-plus frames. Indians manager Terry Francona found a silver lining in Kluber’s truncated season and made it sound as if the longtime ace will stick with the club in 2020, saying: “Maybe it’s a blessing in disguise for next year. I mean, we leaned on him pretty heavy for six years.”
- The Dodgers re-signed first baseman David Freese for $4.5MM last offseason, though the veteran nearly retired after their World Series loss to the Red Sox, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. In the end, however, the “deep mutual interest” Freese and the Dodgers had in a reunion won out, Castillo writes. “I came back because this was everything I wanted to be a part of. And it was worth another year to get up for 180 games and just get after it,” said Freese, who, as Castillo details, seems universally respected in the organization. It doesn’t hurt that the 36-year-old has thrived with the bat this season, having batted a spectacular .315/.403/.599 with 11 home runs in 186 plate appearances. The former World Series hero with the Cardinals will have another chance at a memorable October this year, though this postseason could prove to be the end of the line for Freese, Castillo suggests.
- It wouldn’t have been a surprise if the Phillies jettisoned maligned manager Gabe Kapler after their disappointing season ended Sunday. A couple days later, though, they still haven’t announced whether he’ll return for a third year. But it’s “likely” they’ll make Kapler’s fate known on Wednesday, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. The Kapler-led Phillies just concluded a second straight season in which a summer implosion canceled out a promising start. Philadelphia went 80-82 under Kapler in 2018, and despite an incredibly active offseason, the club only mustered an 81-81 mark this year.
Reds Rumors: Grandal, Bullpen, Senzel
Tuesday was an active one for the Reds, who made a few changes to their coaching staff. Here’s more from Cincinnati…
- The Brewers’ season reached a heartbreaking end Tuesday, leaving the club to turn its attention to the offseason. One of its priorities could be re-signing catcher Yasmani Grandal, who will surely decline his half of a $16MM mutual option for 2020 in order to reach free agency for the second straight winter. As easily the premier catcher who’s on the verge of hitting the open market, Grandal figures to draw plenty of interest from outside clubs. Expectations are that the division-rival Reds will be among the teams that pursue Grandal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Now 30, Grandal began his pro career as the 12th overall pick of the Reds in 2010, but he never played a major league game in Cincinnati. The team traded Grandal to San Diego in a 2011 blockbuster, and he has blossomed into one of the majors’ elite catchers since then. Meanwhile, the Reds are coming off a year in which their catchers (primarily Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali) posted mediocre production. If the Reds are going to upgrade over their current backstops with Grandal, though, they’ll undoubtedly need to put forth a significant offer. Grandal’s among the game’s top soon-to-be free agents, someone who’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after getting one last offseason, and it stands to reason he’ll be paid accordingly in the coming months.
- The Reds will likely try to add one or two left-handers to their bullpen in the offseason, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Aside from Amir Garrett, no southpaw reliever the Reds tried for a decent sample of innings in 2019 was successful. Zach Duke and Wandy Peralta struggled so badly that the Reds cut ties with them before the year ended. Cody Reed enjoyed a promising 6 1/3-inning stretch in May, but a knee injury derailed his season toward the end of that month.
- More from Nightengale, who reports the club’s “hopeful” it’ll have prized youngster Nick Senzel in the fold when the 2020 season opens. Senzel sat out the final four weeks of the regular season on account of a right shoulder injury that required surgery. Although Senzel spent the year in center field, it’s possible the Reds will add to that position this winter and move him back to the infield – specifically second base – next season, Nightengale notes. The upcoming free-agent class isn’t exactly teeming with obvious center field solutions, however.
Managerial Rumors: Angels, Maddon, Giants, Ibanez, Farrell, Gibbons
Joe Maddon is reportedly a leading candidate to take over as the Angels’ next manager, but he’s not the lone possibility to replace Brad Ausmus. General manager Billy Eppler stated Tuesday that the Angels “plan on sitting down with a number of candidates” to discuss the job, per Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times. Maddon’s a highly accomplished manager who earlier spent three decades with the Angels organization in several different roles, which seems to make him a slam-dunk choice for the position. However, it’s worth noting that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last week that the Angels might be hesitant to meet Maddon’s asking price. Maddon made $6MM this year with the Cubs, who moved on from him after they fell way short of expectations in 2019.
- The Giants, who are seeking a successor to Bruce Bochy, are interested in ex-major league outfielder Raul Ibanez, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Ibanez has been working as a special assistant to Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman since 2016, giving him familiarity with the Giants’ Farhan Zaidi. Before Zaidi took the reins as San Francisco’s president of baseball ops last offseason, he worked as the Dodgers’ general manager.
- Former big league skipper John Farrell remains interested in a third go-around as a manager, Rosenthal tweets. The 57-year-old last managed in 2017, when he oversaw a Red Sox team that finished 93-69 and earned an AL East title. Farrell managed three division winners and a World Series champion (2013) in Boston over five years, though he also guided two last-place clubs during his uneven reign. Prior to that, he managed the Blue Jays to a 154-170 record from 2011-12. Farrell has served as a scout and a pitching consultant in Cincinnati since 2018, and he interviewed for the Phillies’ and Reds’ managerial openings during the previous two offseasons.
- Fellow ex-Jays manager John Gibbons also could be a possibility for clubs, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays. The 57-year-old wants to manage again or at least serve as a bench coach, according to Feinsand. Gibbons lost his job in Toronto after 2018, ending a two-stint, 11-year run with the franchise. He led the club to a 793-789 record with a pair of playoff berths.
- Astros first base coach Don Kelly is a candidate to draw managerial interest in the coming weeks, Morosi hears. The 39-year-old Kelly, best known for his run as a major league utlityman for the Pirates, Tigers and Marlins from 2007-16, is only in his first season as a coach. He spent the previous two seasons in a pro scouting role with Detroit.
Latest On Cubs’ Managerial Opening
The Cubs parted with manager Joe Maddon last weekend, but it’s possible they’ll turn to one of his former underlings to steer the ship in 2020. Bench coach Mark Loretta and first base coach Will Venable are officially candidates to become the team’s next manager, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. They join the previously confirmed David Ross as in-house possibilities to succeed Maddon.
President of baseball operations Theo Epstein suggested Monday that hiring someone with previous managerial experience would be a plus. However, nobody from the Loretta-Venable-Ross trio has managed in either the majors or minors up to now.
The 48-year-old Loretta, a two-time All-Star during his tenure as a major league infielder, is coming off his first season on Chicago’s coaching staff. Loretta previously worked as a special assistant with the Padres, who hired him upon his retirement in 2010.
Still just 36, Venable isn’t far removed from a respectable run as a major league outfielder with the Padres, Rangers and Dodgers. Venable retired to join the Chicago front office in September 2017, though the team changed his role to that of a coach a couple months later.
Loretta, Venable and Ross are among a seemingly large group of candidates to take over as the Cubs’ next manager. Epstein said Monday he and his front office cohorts are assembling a “broad list” of names as they work to recover from an awful finish to the 2019 season.
Rangers Plan To Increase Payroll, Could Trade An Outfielder
The 2019 season, in many ways, was a pleasant surprise for the Rangers. While the season’s second half was forgettable in terms of the club’s record, the Rangers saw some individual performances that offered encouragement heading into 2020. Mike Minor and Lance Lynn had impressive seasons while pitching on affordable contracts. Joey Gallo proved himself capable of handling an outfield spot — perhaps even center field. Willie Calhoun rebounded and looks like a quality bat moving forward. Minor league pickups Danny Santana and Hunter Pence enjoyed terrific seasons, and Santana can be controlled through 2021. One of the prior offseason’s bargain pickups, Chris Martin, was flipped to the Braves for a potential long-term option in the rotation (Kolby Allard).
At the same time, one can’t ignore the team’s second-half slide or the ugly seasons turned in by a number of players the organization once tabbed as building blocks. Elvis Andrus and, in particular, Rougned Odor had poor seasons. Ronald Guzman didn’t step up and seize the team’s first base job. Most of the team’s fliers on low-cost pitching acquisitions (e.g. Shelby Miller, Drew Smyly, Edinson Volquez) failed to pan out, and the farm system didn’t yield better alternatives. For all the bright spots, the Rangers have clear areas in which they need to improve.
That was a focal point for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels in meeting with the media in today’s postmortem press conference (link via Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram). The season offered some undeniable bright spots, but the club also has a “clear opportunity” for some upgrades at third base, first base and in the rotation, Daniels said. Of the team’s needs, third base and the rotation standing out as “probably the top two on the list,” Daniels said before also citing catcher and the bullpen as positions that could at least use some depth additions.
Third base indeed seems like a prime spot for the Rangers to pursue upgrades; Texas third basemen hit .243/.310/.389 this season, which, when accounting for their hitter-friendly home park, translates to a paltry 76 wRC+ — or 24 percent worse than a league-average hitter. Deadline pickup Nick Solak could be an intriguing option, but there are questions about his glovework and he’s tallied just 135 plate appearances in the Majors.
In the rotation, the Rangers don’t have much in the way of options beyond Minor, Lynn and Allard. Adrian Sampson and Ariel Jurado scarcely kept their ERAs under 6.00, and many of the team’s top pitching prospects have battled injuries. That trend, in fact, will continue to a minor extent with top pitching prospect Hans Crouse undergoing surgery to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow (Twitter link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Crouse isn’t expected to have his 2020 availability impacted, and he won’t be an option given that he’s yet to pitch in Double-A. But the team’s general lack of upper-level pitching depth should force them into pursuing some rotation additions in free agency and/or trade.
The extent to which the Rangers can look for reinforcements in free agency will be determined by how much ownership allows Daniels & Co. to spend this winter. While there’s no specific budget in place, Daniels made clear that he’ll have more resources at his disposal this winter. “Our major-league payroll will be up from where it was this year,” said Daniels, adding that he hasn’t been given a firm number to beyond that but more of a “general range.”
The Texas organization spent much of the 2018-19 offseason working to cut payroll and managed to dip its Opening Day mark to a bit more than $118MM — the lowest point since way back in 2011. The Rangers’ high-water mark for payroll came with 2017’s Opening Day mark of $165MM. A return to those heights can’t be assumed, but that probably provides a rough idea of a ceiling (even if it’s safer to assume a more modest total).
Whatever the number, the Rangers should have the freedom to try to pursue a wide number of free agents. If Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon are deemed too expensive, the market will bear some high-caliber fallbacks in the form of Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler and Josh Donaldson. Texas could certainly backload any free-agent additions such that the salary escalates more aggressively in 2021 when Shin-Soo Choo, Minor, Jesse Chavez and Jeff Mathis are off the books.
Alternatively, trading from their surplus of left-handed-hitting corner outfielders could free up some additional space. Daniels acknowledged as much in candid fashion, stating that “when everyone’s healthy we have more left-handed-hitting corner guys than we have spots.” He cautioned that a trade isn’t a foregone conclusion but is also something he’ll have to explore.
Surely, the Rangers would be loath to move either Gallo or Calhoun, but Choo and his $21MM salary or the perennially underwhelming Mazara (.268/.318/.469, 94 wRC+ in 2019) could make sense. Choo is overpaid, to be sure, but he still posted a .265/.371/.455 line with 24 home runs in 660 plate appearances. Mazara, meanwhile, has never delivered on his premium prospect pedigree but still won’t turn 25 until next April despite having four years of MLB service. Other teams will quite likely view him as a buy-low candidate given that pedigree, his modest salary — he’ll earn a raise on this year’s $3.3MM price — and the fact that he’s controlled through 2021.
It’s also worth noting that at a time of year that is frequently punctuated by turnover in the coaching department, the Rangers won’t be making any changes. MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets that Daniels has invited all of manager Chris Woodward‘s coaching staff back for the 2020 season. So while the composition of the Rangers’ roster will quite likely look quite a bit different in 2020, the group guiding that roster should be a source of stability.
Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Hitters
Earlier tonight, we took a look at pending free-agent pitchers who are candidates to receive a qualifying offer before the market opens in a few weeks. We’ll do the same here with hitters who are on the cusp of free agency. Players who have received the QO in the past can’t get it again (Brewers catcher Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Mike Moustakas come to mind), nor can those who were part of in-season trades (Nicholas Castellanos of the Cubs and Yasiel Puig of the Indians, to name two).
Easy Calls:
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: The Nationals reportedly made a recent extension offer to Rendon worth more than $200MM. So, of course they’d take him back for a year at roughly $18MM. However, as one of the best players in the game, Rendon would have an easy time rejecting the QO.
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves: After two straight injury-limited seasons, the Braves took a $23MM gamble on Donaldson last winter. The move has worked out swimmingly. Donaldson will enter the playoffs off a healthy season, one in which he slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR in 659 plate appearances.
Likely:
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals: While Ozuna was not at his best during the regular campaign, he’ll still be one of the most sought-after hitters on the market. The soon-to-be 29-year-old comes with a fairly long track record of above-average production, evidenced by the fact that he will go to free agency on the heels of his fifth season with upward of 2.0 fWAR. He slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 homers and a personal-high 12 steals in 549 PA this season.
Borderline:
- Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, White Sox: As of a couple months ago, Abreu did not look like a legitimate QO candidate. But the 32-year-old ended the season with a flourish en route to an overall line of .284/.330/.503 with 33 homers in 693 trips to the plate. While Abreu and the White Sox have made it known they’d like to work out an extension, the team could fall back on a QO if it’s unable to reach a multiyear agreement with him.
- Didi Gregorius, SS, Yankees: This was not a banner regular season for Gregorius, who missed the first two-plus months of the campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall. After that, Gregorius saw his numbers plummet in comparison to the previous couple seasons, as he hit an uninspiring .238/.276/.441 with 16 home runs in 344 trips to the plate. Fortunately for Gregorius, he’s far and away the highest-upside shortstop due to reach free agency. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees saddle him with a QO.
Opt-Out Possibility:
- J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: If Martinez does become a free agent, he’ll be a slam dunk to receive a QO. The question is whether the offensive standout will take a chance on going back to the market. Martinez, 32, would be abandoning a guaranteed three years and $62.5MM by doing so. As a defensively limited player who doesn’t have age on his side and is coming off a year in which his production plummeted in comparison to 2017-18 (though it was still very good), Martinez would be taking a substantial risk by opting for free agency.
Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Pitchers
Major League Baseball’s postseason begins Tuesday, which means the start of free agency isn’t far away. Before the market opens, there are several teams that will have decisions to make on whether to issue qualifying offers to pending free agents. The qualifying offer, which should be worth upward of $18MM, gives a club the ability to keep a player for an extra year if he accepts it. Otherwise, should he walk as a free agent, the team would receive draft pick compensation for its trouble. Those who have received the QO in the past can’t get it again (Dodgers southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu is among those exempt), nor can players who were part of in-season trades.
We’ll begin this two-part series by looking at soon-to-be free-agent pitchers who may have set themselves up to land QOs before reaching the market…
Easy Calls:
- Gerrit Cole, RHP, Astros: As the lone pitcher in this year’s class who has a chance at a $200MM contract (or maybe even a $100MM deal), Cole’s an obvious bet for a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old may well hit the market off a Cy Young-winning season, having amassed a jaw-dropping 326 strikeouts (against 48 walks) with a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP in 212 1/3 innings.
- Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: Throughout the first half of the season, it didn’t look as if Bumgarner would be in position to get a QO. That wasn’t because of his performance, but on account of the fact that he looked like a clear-cut trade candidate. The Giants ultimately held on to the franchise icon, though, and if he does reach the market in a month, he’s sure to come with a QO attached. After enduring back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, the 30-year-old Bumgarner restored his reputation as a workhorse in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of matching 3.90 ERA/FIP ball with 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9.
- Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets: One of the hardest throwers in the game, Wheeler has bounced back from arm injuries that derailed his career from 2015-17 to regain his status as a coveted hurler over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old just finished a season in which he logged a 3.96 ERA/3.48 FIP with 8.98 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over 195 1/3 frames
Borderline:
- Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Twins: Odorizzi may not look as exciting as the above names on the list, but the 29-year-old recorded compelling results during the regular season for the World Series-contending Twins. Thanks in part to an increase in average fastball velocity (92.9 mph, up from 90-91 during the earlier portion of his career), Odorizzi registered a stingy 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP in 159 innings this year. While Odorizzi’s trouble inducing groundballs continued (his GB rate checked in at just 35 percent), so did his ability to limit home runs (fly balls left the yard at a paltry 8.8 percent against him). Odorizzi also put up 10.08 strikeouts per nine against an even three walks.
- Will Smith, LHP, Giants: Like teammate Bumgarner, Smith was a much talked-about trade candidate whom the Giants decided to keep. Now, if they issue him a QO, they’ll get a draft pick should he depart during the coming months. The 30-year-old Smith was a force this season, notching a 2.76 ERA/3.23 FIP with 13.22 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9 across 65 1/3 innings. Smith converted 34 of 38 save chances along the way.
- Cole Hamels, LHP, Cubs: Injuries prevented Hamels from enjoying another high-inning season, as he totaled just 141 2/3, though he was still effective. But whether Hamels was effective enough to merit a QO is iffy. Hamels, who will turn 36 in December, managed a 3.81 ERA/4.09 FIP with 9.08 K/9, 3.56 BB/9 and a 47.3 groundball percentage. Considering a QO wouldn’t be much of a step down from Hamels’ 2019 salary of $20MM, it’s likely he’ll give strong consideration to accepting it if the Cubs make the offer.
Opt-Out Possibilities:
- Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: It’s up in the air whether Strasburg will become a free agent for the first time, as opting out of his deal would mean leaving a guaranteed four years and $100MM on the table. That’s a risky proposition for a 31-year-old who has dealt with plenty of injuries during his career, though the Nationals will surely hit Strasburg with a QO if he does gamble on going to the market. Strasburg stayed healthy during the regular season and put up a tremendous 3.32 ERA/3.25 FIP with 10.81 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent groundball rate in 209 innings – the second-highest total of his career.
- Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: For the majority of the season, a Darvish opt-out would have been unthinkable. Now, even though it still doesn’t seem as if it will happen, it’s not the impossibility it once was. The 33-year-old ended the season on an absolute tear, piling up 12 or more strikeouts in each of his last three starts. Darvish closed 2019 with a 3.98 ERA/4.18 FIP with a fantastic strikeout/walk ratio (11.54 K/9 against 2.82 BB/9) in 178 2/3 innings. Still, it seems he’d be better off sticking with the four years and $81MM left on his deal. However, if Darvish takes a risk on free agency, he won’t get there without a QO hanging over his head.
- Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Yankees: Chapman still has two years and $30MM left on his contract, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the fireballer opt to test the market again. He’s fresh off an age-31 season in which he pitched to a 2.21 ERA/2.28 FIP with 13.42 K/9 against 3.95 BB/9 in 57 innings. As has long been the case, Chapman was almost a lock to preserve wins, saving 37 of 42 opportunities.
Reds Hire Driveline Baseball’s Kyle Boddy, Promote Caleb Cotham
The Reds announced Tuesday that they’ve hired Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball to serve as the organization’s director of pitching initiatives/pitching coordinator. Boddy announced on Twitter that he will focus almost entirely on working to develop minor league pitchers in his new role with the Reds, but he’ll also remain with Driveline. The Reds also promoted assistant pitching coach Caleb Cotham, adding “director of pitching” to his title. Travis Sawchik of FiveThirtyEight.com reports (via Twitter) that the division-rival Cubs also offered Boddy a position, but he opted for the Reds’ position.
While Boddy will work more with the team’s minor league pitchers than the Major League pitchers, he’ll also “work closely with the Major League pitching department to ensure the pitching philosophies and protocols are consistent throughout the organization,” per the Reds.
The Cincinnati organization has rapidly turned over its pitching infrastructure, not only bringing Boddy aboard but also adding Cotham and pitching coach Derek Johnson (formerly of the Brewers) in the past year. For those unfamiliar, Driveline (founded by Boddy) seeks to utilize technology and biomechanics to take a data-driven approach to pitching development. Its services have become increasingly popular among both Major League and college pitchers in recent years, with Cincinnati’s Trevor Bauer and Detroit’s Matthew Boyd among the more prominent names in the company’s clientele.
The Reds, in recent seasons, have sought to bolster their utilization of technology and analytics in an attempt to stay competitive with the rising number of data-oriented front offices in today’s game. Manager David Bell’s coaching staff featured several members who’d previously worked in such organizations and, as such, were familiar with the best way to break down that type of information for players. They’ve also made multiple hires to add to their analytics department in the past couple of seasons.
Cotham, a former Driveline client and Major League pitcher himself, is assuredly a part of that. He spent the 2019 season as the team’s assistant pitching coach but will now see his role increase in with the addition of “director of pitching” to his title. While the aforementioned Bauer has had an inconsistent season, both with the Indians and the Reds, there were other success stories under Johnson and Cotham, with Sonny Gray chief among them. Luis Castillo also returned to form after a shaky 2018 campaign, and Anthony DeSclafani arguably had the best season of his career.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.