Click here to view the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: December 5, 2018
Cardinals Acquire Paul Goldschmidt
The offseason’s latest blockbuster trade doesn’t involve the exceptionally active Mariners nor any of the five teams in the hyper-aggressive National League East. Rather, both the Cardinals and Diamondbacks have announced that first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been traded from Arizona to St. Louis in exchange for right-hander Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young and a Competitive Balance Round B selection in next year’s draft.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote earlier today that the Cardinals have indicated that they want to determine if there’s any momentum in any of their ongoing trade talks this week, heading into the Winter Meetings, noting that those talks included ongoing negotiations with the Diamondbacks regarding their first baseman and perennial MVP candidate.
Goldschmidt, 31, is heading into his final season of club control and stands to earn $14.5MM next season before reaching free agency next winter. The six-time All-Star rebounded from an awful start to the 2018 campaign to finish with a brilliant .290/.389/.533 line through 690 plate appearances.
The Cardinals have been well-known to be in the hunt for a middle-of-the-order bat for a second consecutive offseason, with a reported focus on corner infielders. The addition of Goldschmidt would presumably push Matt Carpenter to third base, with Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong currently lined up to hand shortstop and second base duties.
Last offseason, the Cards sought a similar addition and turned their focus to Marlins slugger Marcell Ozuna. However, a shoulder injury known to be bothering Ozuna at the time proved detrimental to the outfielder’s offensive production, and he finished the season with a fairly pedestrian .280/.325/.433 batting line and 23 home runs — a far cry from his 2017 slash of .312/.376/.548 and 37 homers. If Ozuna is able to bounce back, the Cards can trot out a lineup featuring Goldschmidt, Carpenter and Ozuna — a highly talented trio with potential to comprise one of the more imposing hearts of the order in the Majors.
For the D-backs, the motivation to trade Goldschmidt comes from the slugger’s limited club control, a bloated payroll that had been at franchise-record levels and a desire to restock a thin farm system. Goldschmidt already inked one club-friendly contract with the D-backs and, with the end of that contract in sight, it’s unlikely that he’d sign for anything less than market value this time around. To that end, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Diamondbacks did try to sign Goldschmidt to an extension before trading him but were unable to come to terms (Twitter link).
With the reality that Goldschmidt wouldn’t be signing a new contract firmly set in place, general manager Mike Hazen and his staff moved to acquire more in exchange for Goldschmidt than they’d have stood to gain by allowing him to play out his final season of club control and receive a qualifying offer. The return announced by the two clubs more than meets that description. Both Weaver and Kelly have big league experience and were considered to be among the game’s top 100 prospects before surfacing in the Majors. Young, meanwhile, posted strong numbers between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last season, and the Competitive Balance draft pick the D-backs are acquiring is currently slotted in at No. 78 overall (though draft compensation from qualified free agents could potentially alter the exact placement by a matter of a few slots).
Weaver will pitch the bulk of next season at just 25 years of age. A year ago at this time, Weaver looked like a lock for the Cards’ rotation for years to come. He’d posted a 3.88 ERA in 60 1/3 innings at the big league level in 2017, turning in brilliant marks of 10.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9 and a 49.4 percent ground-ball rate. Weaver notched a 3.17 FIP, 2.93 xFIP and 3.29 SIERA in that time and appeared to be one of the National League’s most promising young arms.
The 2018 season, however, saw the former first-round pick take a step back. Weaver totaled 136 1/3 innings with 8.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 and a diminished 42.4 percent ground-ball rate. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA marks all hovered in the mid-4.00 range as his hard-hit rate spiked by more than 10 percent. Clearly, Weaver has some adjustments to make, but he’s controllable for another five seasons and, if all pans out well, he could give the Snakes a solid mid-rotation arm for the foreseeable future. He’s the second rotation piece the D-backs have added in as many days, following yesterday’s signing of right-hander Merrill Kelly to a two-year deal on the heels of his breakout in the Korea Baseball Organization.
Kelly, meanwhile, gives the D-backs their potential catcher of the future. The 24-year-old was touted as the heir-apparent to Yadier Molina in St. Louis but has yet to find much success in minimal big league time behind Molina. A former second-round pick, Kelly has batted just .154/.227/.188 in 131 plate appearances at the MLB level, though playing time has been hard to come by for him.
However, Kelly comes to the D-backs with six seasons of team control and a career .278/.373/.416 batting line in 755 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s thrown out 32 percent of opposing base thieves in his minor league career and, according to Baseball Prospectus, has turned in very strong framing numbers and above-average blocking abilities throughout his minor league tenure.
As for Young, the 24-year-old turned in strong numbers last season — albeit against younger competition. In 503 PAs last year, he hit .289/.379/.479 with 21 homers, 13 doubles, three triples and four steals. A 37th-round pick in the 2016 draft, he’s shown quite a bit of versatility by playing second base, third base, shortstop and both outfield corners to this point in his professional career.
The draft pick further solidifies a nice return for Arizona. The No. 78 selection in the 2018 draft came with a $763K slot value — a number that should take an incremental step forward in 2019. The D-backs, then, will not only add a top 80 selection to their draft but an additional $775-800K to their overall draft pool next season.
It’s a steep price for the Cardinals to pay, even if Weaver and Kelly are likelier to become solid regulars than perennial All-Stars. A combined 11 years of control, a top-80 selection in next season’s draft a minor league utility player with solid to-date performances gives Arizona ample opportunity to recoup long-term value. The Cards, however, are dealing from positions of depth — particularly with regard to the starting rotation, where Weaver wasn’t even assured a spot in 2019 due to the glut of quality options the team has amassed. While the team has less depth behind the plate, Molina is signed at a premium rate through the 2020 season, meaning Kelly wouldn’t have been in line for regular at-bats until at least 2021. Beyond that, 2016 seventh-rounder Andrew Knizner has elevated his status in recent seasons and is now considered by MLB.com to be the organization’s No. 5 prospect.
It’s also possible that the Cards secure some long-term value out of this trade. They’ll presumably make their own attempt to hammer out a long-term contract with Goldschmidt and, should those efforts come up short as was the case in Arizona, they’ll be in position to recoup a compensatory pick in the 2020 draft by issuing a qualifying offer to Goldschmidt.
From here, the D-backs figure to shift their focus to finding a trade partner for right-hander Zack Greinke. Unlike Goldschmidt, the motivation to move Greinke will stem from a more financial standpoint, as the former AL Cy Young winner is owed a combined $104.5MM over the next three seasons. While the D-backs are reportedly on the hook for the pro-rated signing bonus on his contract even after a trade (per The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan), that sum only totals $9MM. An acquiring team could, in theory, spare the D-backs a whopping $97.5MM in future salary obligations, although it stands to reason that the D-backs would have to include some cash or take back a fairly notable salary as part of any Greinke deal.
John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM tweeted that the two sides could be closing in on a trade. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch added that there was “momentum” building in trade talks (Twitter link). Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted that Goldschmidt would be going to St. Louis.
2019 MLB Arbitration Tracker
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Royals Sign Chris Owings
The Royals have added some versatility to both their infield and outfield mixes, announcing the signing of former D-backs utility man Chris Owings to a one-year contract for the 2019 season. Owings, a client of ACES, will reportedly receive a $3MM guarantee and can earn another $500K worth of incentives.
On the surface, this seems to be quite a sensible match for all involved. Owings, 27, is a nice bounceback candidate who could see action all over the field in Kansas City. He was recently non-tendered by the Diamondbacks, who elected not to pay him a projected $3.6MM. As Owings has already topped five years of MLB service, the Royals won’t have any future control rights to look forward to. He’ll once again be a free agent next winter.
Owings has spent most of his career playing up the middle in the infield, though he also has spent plenty of time in the outfield (right and center, primarily) and has logged some innings at third base. Unless he’s offered a chance to earn regular time at the hot corner, or a trade creates space elsewhere, odds are he’ll be tasked with moving around quite a bit in Kansas City.
The organization is slated to cover most of its middle-infield innings with Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield. Owings can support that middle infield pairing while buttressing the Royals’ roster at the other spots where he has experience. The Royals third base situation remains largely unresolved at present. Meanwhile, K.C.’s three top outfielders (Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips) all hit from the left side, making Owings a natural platoon match (though he has mostly neutral splits in his career).
The defensive flexibility is obviously nice, particularly since Owings has graded well at second and fantastically in the outfield. He’s not exactly a defensive-metric darling at short, but he can clearly handle that spot as well.
All said, there should be plenty of opportunity for Owings — supposing, at least, that he can turn things around with the bat. While he has at times shown an ability to hit at or at least near the league-average rate, Owings is coming off of a dreadful 2018 campaign in which he slashed just .206/.272/.302 with four home runs and 11 steals over 309 plate appearances.
To be sure, Owings was likely somewhat unfortunate to post a .265 batting average on balls in play last year. But he didn’t exactly knock the socks off of Statcast’s fancy machinery, with his batted-ball profile spitting out only a .281 xwOBA. That did land well above his .251 xOBA, but it also represented the fourth-straight season in which Owings fell below .300 in xwOBA.
It’s tough to find much to love about Owings’s recent track record offensively. His walk rate did tick up to a personal-high 7.8%, but he also struck out at a 24.3% rate. Owings’s in-zone contact rate fell to a personal-low 85.9%. Meanwhile, he put the ball in the air much more than ever before (38.3% FB rate) without the dingers to show for it (5.1% HR/FB).
Of course, the Royals won’t need Owings to produce even at a league-average rate to see a return on this contract. If he can return to being a slightly below-average bat, Owings will meet the loftiest realistic expectations of his new organization.
Robert Murray of The Athletic first reported the agreement (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link) and Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (Twitter link) provided details on the terms.
Mets Interested In A.J. Pollock
Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen made clear yesterday he intends to make further improvements to the roster. Last night, he indicated that free agent center fielder A.J. Pollock could be a realistic target.
In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), Van Wagenen said that the Mets are in contact with Pollock’s reps about a possible match. Pollock “fits us really well,” says Van Wagenen, who added that he’d continue to engage on Pollock — though it’s “unclear at this point” whether anything will come to fruition.
It’s hard not to see the connections between this interest and the Mets’ reputed push to land catcher J.T. Realmuto. That deal might well cost the team a high-quality young outfielder — Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are said to be in the conversation with the Marlins — who could in theory be replaced by Pollock.
Of course, that’s quite a juggling act, and a purely speculative one at this point. But it’s possible to imagine that it’d leave the Mets particularly interested in a true center fielder, with the roster space to accommodate. (Pollock would fit just fine with Conforto and Nimmo flanking him, and Juan Lagares serving as a reserve, though the anticipated mid-season return of Yoenis Cespedes would make for a potential crowd.)
As Van Wagenen says, we’ll have to see where this all goes. But it’s potentially very good news for Pollock that the New York organization has such obvious interest in him. He’ll be stretched to achieve his reported asking price, but pursuit from an aggressive Mets organization could help push his market into gear in the run-up to the Winter Meetings.
Mets, Others Involved In J.T. Realmuto Market
TODAY: The Mets are “resistant” on including Rosario in a deal, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). It seems the Marlins have at least some level of interest, unsurprisingly, in Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario.
All things considered, it does not appear at present as if the sides have settled upon a clear potential deal structure. There could well be other moving parts to getting something done. After all, the Mets would need to fill in for any departing MLB assets while the Marlins could conceivably involve a third team to spin off any acquired MLB pieces.
YESTERDAY, 8:32pm: The Mets have spoken to the Marlins and are at least considering the possibility of including Nimmo as a centerpiece in a Realmuto deal, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. That said, Sherman cautions that there’s no deal close and that the Marlins are still in talks with multiple other clubs.
However, whether that would be enough for the Mets remains to be seen. Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that the Marlins don’t view Nimmo as a potential Realmuto centerpiece and would prefer Rosario or Conforto to headline a package of young players instead. That’s at least somewhat curious, given the fact that Conforto has only one more season of club control remaining than Realmuto.
6:55pm: Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that it’s unlikely the Mets would include Conforto in a trade for Realmuto.
5:35pm: Trade chatter surrounding J.T. Realmuto will persist throughout the offseason following the definitive declaration that he won’t be signing an extension with the Marlins. While the Marlins reportedly have a preference to trade Realmuto outside of the division, Andy Martino of SNY writes that the Mets are looking into Realmuto now that they officially have Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz on board. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, in fact, reports that the Mets reached out on Realmuto earlier today and are being “aggressive” in their pursuit (Twitter links).
Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that the belief is that the Mets would have to include at least one young Major Leaguer in order to pry Realmuto loose from Miami, and Rosenthal suggests the same. (The Mets subtracted a pair of high-end prospects from its system when trading outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-hander Justin Dunn to Seattle in the Cano/Diaz swap.) Martino speculated that Amed Rosario’s name could come into play, and Rosenthal adds both Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto as the type of talents that could pique Miami’s interest. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Mets would have any actual interest in dealing from that promising young trio. More specifically Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Rosario and Nimmo would be Miami’s top two targets in talks.
The Mets already tendered contracts to both Kevin Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud, though either could be traded elsewhere or designated for assignment anyway, should the organization land an upgrade in the form of Realmuto. (Speculatively, either could also be sent back to Miami as a short-term stopgap in the absence of Realmuto.)
Elsewhere in the NL East (which, to this point, has been the runaway most active division in terms of offseason activity), Craig Mish of SiriusXM tweets that the Phillies have inquired on Realmuto but are considered to be a long shot. The Phils presently have Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp as in-house catching options now that Wilson Ramos is a free agent, and they’ve been aggressive early this winter, already acquiring Jean Segura and James Pazos from the Mariners.
Mish also suggests that the Braves have inquired on Realmuto, although both David O’Brien of The Athletic and Heyman have tweeted otherwise. O’Brien indicates that he was somewhat bluntly told there’s no validity to the report that Austin Riley and Mike Soroka have come up in discussions, while Heyman reports that the Braves haven’t even engaged on any serious Realmuto talks this winter. O’Brien further adds that the Braves have shifted their focus to adding a corner outfielder and shoring up the pitching staff (Twitter links).
Looking outside the NL East, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the Rockies have checked in on the catcher — although talks between the two sides, to this point, have failed to progress. Colorado would make a perfectly logical landing spot, though, given that none of Chris Iannetta, Tony Wolters or Tom Murphy stands out as an obvious front-line option. The Rockies also have plenty of young pitching — much of it MLB-ready, which would surely be of interest to the Marlins as they continue to build for the future.
It’s worth remembering, too, that the clubs here likely only represent a fraction of the market for Realmuto. Heyman notes that 14 teams have inquired with the Marlins about Realmuto this winter, and while clearly not all of those clubs will be particularly aggressive in their pursuit, the sheer volume underscores how many teams view the All-Star backstop as a potential difference maker. A trade isn’t necessarily guaranteed, but it’s likely that Realmuto’s value is at its apex this winter. The Marlins surely know that their time with Realmuto is limited following comments from agent Jeff Berry and, per Mish, a pair of rejected extension offers of four and five years in length (both at prices that are nowhere near Realmuto’s actual market value).
Tigers Sign Louis Coleman, Bobby Wilson, 2 Others
The Tigers announced today that they have inked four players to minor-league deals with invitations to Spring Training. Righty Louis Coleman, catchers Bobby Wilson and Kade Scivicque are among them, along with and infielder Kody Eaves.
Coleman tossed 51 1/3 frames in the majors for the rebuilding Tigers last year, working to a 3.51 ERA. Despite the good results, Coleman was outrighted after the season, as the club recognized that his underlying mix of 7.2 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 did not portend the kind of success that would warrant an arbitration deal. The seven-year MLB vet should compete for a bullpen job in camp.
As for Wilson, the 35-year-old has appeared in nine MLB seasons over his career, though he has only ever recorded more than two hundred plate appearances with a single club in one of those (2012 with the Angels). He has compiled exactly one thousand plate appearances, over which he owns a less-than-enticing .208/.263/.313 slash line. Of course, Wilson’s appeal lies not in his bat but in his sturdy reputation behind the dish. He could conceivably crack the Opening Day roster but seems most likely to take up residence at Triple-A.
Scivicque, 25, is still looking for his first shot at the bigs. He was a fifth-round pick of the Detroit org back in 2015. He returned to the organization in 2018 after a stint with the Braves that began when he was sent to Atlanta via trade. Scivicque has a .667 career OPS in both 305 Double-A plate appearances and 218 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors.
That leaves Eaves, who’s likewise slated for a return to the Tigers organization. The 25-year-old had a nice offensive season in 2017 but scuffled last year, slashing just .198/.283/.298 in 377 plate appearances in the upper minors. He was originally an Angels draft pick who came to Detroit in a 2016 swap.
Rangers To Sign Rafael Montero
The Rangers have reportedly agreed to a minor-league pact with right-hander Rafael Montero. The Roster Roundup site indicated a deal was in place, with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News citing a source who indicated Montero had indeed signed.
Once a top prospect with the Mets, Montero is still working back from Tommy John surgery. He’ll also be looking to get his career on track after running into difficulties in transitioning to the majors.
Montero has already thrown 192 1/3 innings at the game’s highest level, most of which came in 2017, but carries only a 5.38 cumulative ERA. He has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning in the bigs, but also has surrendered 5.2 free passes per nine. There were some positives in 2017, as Montero worked in the 94 mph range with his average fastball and produced a healthy 48.1% groundball rate.
Now 28 years of age, and rehabbing a TJ procedure from last March, Montero will not be at full health in time for compete for a job in camp. But he ought to be ramping up for a return to action by the middle of the upcoming season and could certainly put himself on the radar of the pitching-needy Rangers if he’s able to rediscover some of his former promise.
Marlins Announce Coaching Staff
The Marlins have announced their coaching staff under manager Don Mattingly. In addition to preexisting members, Mel Stottlemyre Jr. will serve as pitching coach, Trey Hillman will join as first base/infield coach, Jeff Livesey will become the assistant hitting coach, and Kevin Barr will run the club’s strength and conditioning.
Stottlemyre comes over from the Mariners, who decided not to retain him after the 2018 season. He only briefly reached the bigs as a pitcher, but has spent most of the past decade in MLB dugouts. Stottlemyre served for three years as the Seattle pitching coach and has functioned as a pitching coach and bullpen coach with the Diamondbacks.
As for Hillman, whose hiring was reported yesterday by Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (via Twitter), he has had a particularly interesting path. He has not only managed in the majors (with the Royals), but skippered championship clubs in Japan and (most recently) Korea. After taking the KBO crown last year with SK Wyverns, Hillman decided upon a stateside return.
Livesey was not retained by the Pirates as their assistant hitting coach after a five-year run, but lands the same post in Miami. Barr is best known for his long run with the Rays. Otherwise, the Fish will continue to rely on Tim Wallach as bench coach, Mike Pagliarulo as hitting coach, Fredi Gonzalez as third base coach, and Dean Treanor as bullpen coach.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Los Angeles Dodgers, fresh off of a second consecutive NLCS Championship (and second consecutive World Series loss), have a surplus of talent on the farm and would figure to have the capacity to add payroll if need be. With two consecutive trips to baseball’s grandest stage galvanizing the tail end of six straight playoff berths, it’ll take a championship to truly satiate the fans this time around. It’s a good thing the Dodgers are as well-positioned as any team in baseball to bring one home.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Clayton Kershaw, SP: $93MM through 2021 (extension signed 11/2/18)
- Matt Kemp, OF: $21.75MM through 2019
- Justin Turner, 3B: $39MM through 2020
- Rich Hill, SP: $18MM through 2019
- Kenley Jansen, RP: $56MM through 2021
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP: $17.9MM through 2019 (accepted qualifying offer)
- David Freese, 3B: $4.5MM through 2019
- Kenta Maeda, SP: $15MM through 2023
- Tony Cingrani, RP: $2.65MM through 2019 (guaranteed arbitration salary)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Yasiel Puig (5.102) – $11.3MM
- Alex Wood (5.123) – $9.0MM
- Joc Pederson (4.028) – $4.3MM
- Enrique Hernandez (4.054) – $3.2MM
- Chris Taylor (3.037) – $3.2MM
- Josh Fields (5.083) – $2.8MM
- Corey Seager (3.032) – $2.6MM
- Pedro Baez (4.059) – $1.8MM
- Yimi Garcia (3.149) – $900K
Free Agents
- Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal (declined qualifying offer), Ryan Madson, Daniel Hudson, Brian Dozier, Tom Koehler, Zac Rosscup, John Axford, Eric Goeddel, Cesar Ramos, Justin De Fratus, Zach McAllister, Logan Ondrusek
[Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart | Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll | Projecting Payrolls: Los Angeles Dodgers]
The Dodgers came within one win of a World Series victory back in 2017 and returned for an encore last year before ultimately falling short again. Fans and front office alike will be hoping that third time’s the charm as they work to plug the gaps on an already-formidable roster. Make no mistake: while the Dodgers saw the contracts of over a third of their 40-man roster expire at the end of the 2018 season, they’ve got some heavy hitters still in place and figure to be aggressive in supplementing that core in order to remain among the elite National League clubs come Opening Day.
Two of those players whose contracts expired in November made up the top half of the club’s playoff rotation, which would have made for a concerning hole on the roster in another universe. But in this realm, Andrew Friedmann & Co. swiftly and decisively took the suspense out of the club’s would-be pitching need by re-upping with Clayton Kershaw on a three-year, $93MM contract and issuing Hyun-Jin Ryu a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer he’d ultimately accept. The two alone will combine to take Los Angeles to the cusp of the luxury tax ceiling (indeed, more if Kershaw meets some of the start-based incentives in his contract), but they’ll continue to have one of the more enviable one-two punches in the NL. For the Dodgers, the convenience of solving such a dilemma with money alone allowed them to get a leg up before the winter even began.
While they’ve got an advantage at the top of their rotation, the depth they have in that area is perhaps even more unique. Beyond Kershaw and Ryu, rookie sensation Walker Buehler will return to the club and will continue to represent a huge value as a pre-arb performer. As for rounding out the starting five, they’ve got no shortage of options. Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda and even Julio Urias are all talented pitchers that most teams would be happy to slot in as mid-rotation guys, but who’ll instead be competing for back-end starter and long relief roles for a pitching-wealthy Dodgers ballclub. While a great number of these players have significant injury concerns, the depth alone should easily carry the club through all but the most extreme of health-related misfortunes. If there’s an area of need on this team, it’s certainly not in the rotation.
So of course it was easily predictable that one of the club’s most notable pursuits so far has been an improvement in the starting rotation. They’ve reportedly discussed multiple trade scenarios with the Indians already, most notably one that would send two-time Cy Young Award-winner Corey Kluber to Los Angeles. While the Dodgers’ pitching depth is certainly impressive, Kluber would present a gargantuan upgrade over anyone in that group without a Cy Young Award to his name. Some might argue that he’s even got the edge over Kershaw himself at this stage of their careers in terms of sturdiness and reliability. Any real pursuit of Kluber (or even his teammate, Trevor Bauer) wouldn’t seem to be made with the regular season in mind, but rather with the goal of improving the playoff rotation to extraordinary heights. It’s not clear who they’d be willing to ship to Cleveland in such a deal, though it’s worth pointing out that the Indians have a long-term need at catcher and outfield, both of which are perceived areas of prospect depth for the Los Angeles organization.
Speaking of catchers, the Dodgers would appear to have a need behind the dish for the 2019 season after watching longtime backstop Yasmani Grandal reject their qualifying offer. The club owns two of MLB Pipeline’s top ten catching prospects, so it’s possible that one or both of Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith could be given the opportunity to win the job (in tandem with incumbent Austin Barnes) right out of spring training. Ruiz in particular would figure to be a fine long-term solution there if his development plays out as predicted by several prospect pundits across the industry. Of course, if the club was comfortable with that as their plan A, they probably wouldn’t have already committed so much focus to finding an upgrade at this early juncture of the offseason. They’ve been connected to J.T. Realmuto of the Marlins, for instance, and appeared to be in play for former Tribe catcher Yan Gomes before he was ultimately dealt to the Nationals. A reunion with Grandal is certainly within the realm of possibility, though it seems somewhat unlikely based on his postseason difficulties along with the team’s payroll outlook (more on that later) and other potential priorities.
Whether or not the Dodgers will use any of their available resources to fortify the bullpen behind franchise closer Kenley Jansen is anybody’s guess. One could make a strong case that it’s an area of need; a mass exodus of depth pieces and an offseason heart procedure for the resilient Jansen point to a need for some further padding. Yet an equally strong case could be made that the ’pen is actually an area of strength for Los Angeles, given the track record of Jansen (and optimism that he’ll be ready for Opening Day) coupled with the upside of relievers like Dylan Floro, Tony Cingrani and Caleb Ferguson. Further reinforcing the latter argument is the likelihood that the starting rotation depth will bleed over into the relief corps; pitchers like Wood, Maeda, and Urias could serve as strong multi-inning weapons out of the bullpen.
If the Dodgers elect to pursue relievers on the free agent market, there’s a wealth of talented, proven arms to choose from; they wouldn’t have any trouble enticing one or more of them to join their storied franchise. But if they opt not to pay up for any major additions (or trade prospect capital for a reliever under contract), the way they deploy their pitching staff in 2019 would be a fascinating story to follow. The pitching landscape has been evolving rapidly for the past few seasons, and the 2019 Dodgers would be a prime candidate to utilize their wealth of twice-through-the-order-type starters and upside relief pitchers to mix and match pitchers and get outs in a creative manner. They were already one of a few teams to toy with the idea of using an “opener” last season. Recently-extended skipper Dave Roberts has all the right tools in place to take another bold step forward as far as creativity, and while that’s nothing at all resembling a guarantee that he’ll do so, it’s at the very least an intriguing potential storyline to follow and definitely a small item for fans to keep tucked away in the back of their minds as they watch the club’s offseason news and rumors.
When imagining all possible outcomes of the Dodgers’ 2018-2019 offseason, it’s impossible not to consider the fates of free agent juggernauts Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, each of whom is expected to sign a contract larger than any player to date. Machado, who spent the latter half of the season in Los Angeles and contributed significantly to their postseason run, now seems like somewhat of an unlikely fit due to the presence of Justin Turner at third base and the expected return of Corey Seager to shortstop. On the other hand, one could envision a scenario in which Seager shifts to the right side of the infield to play at the keystone, clearing room for Machado at short and pushing Enrique Hernandez into his accustomed super utility role. In other words, while Machado doesn’t seem like a perfect fit, it wouldn’t be wise to entirely rule the Dodgers out, either.
When it comes to Harper, there’s been some confusion as to the organization’s level of engagement to date. There’s a clear logical fit there, to the point that MLBTR predicted Los Angeles as the landing spot for the former MVP. He’d provide a sizable upgrade in production over Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Joc Pederson, even before weighing the fact that the former two are set to depart after the coming season, while the latter will be a free agent at the end of 2020. Top prospect Alex Verdugo is ready for a full run at the majors, but the club may not be willing to rely on him fully and could also dangle him in trade scenarios. Put more simply, a long-term commitment to Harper would provide a significant upgrade in the near-term while answering long-term questions about the organization’s outfield picture and providing stability there for over a decade.
The caveat to all this, and to any other pursuits the Dodgers might make in free agency, is that they could potentially be facing significant financial restraints in contrast with years past. As MLBTR’s own Rob Huff outlined in his recent payroll projection piece, a document prepared by someone within the Dodgers organization suggests that they intend to remain below the luxury tax threshold every year between now and 2022. Indeed, the payroll target for 2019 outlined within said document is only $185MM, which is eight figures south of Roster Resource’s current projection for the club with arbitration salaries taken into account. Huff doesn’t believe that the Dodgers will actively move to shed payroll (a sentiment I imagine echoes throughout the industry), but as he said in the above piece, if their plans haven’t changed, it’s difficult to see them adding any sort of marquee free agent at all, let alone either of the top two players on the market. They’ve also yet to guarantee a free agent more than $50MM under Friedmann’s tenure. It’s reasonable to question how much to read into that leaked document, though clearly the current iteration of club leadership will continue to prioritize efficient spending.
Of course, there are plenty of ways in which the Dodgers could clear payroll space that could be repurposed. Just last winter, the club was involved in one of the offseason’s most surprising swaps, which essentially amounted to an exchange of future dollar commitments (or at least, it seemed that way before Kemp’s surprising resurgence). That they’ve shown a willingness to get creative in the past leaves open the possibility that they’ll explore multiple avenues of gaining some financial flexibility this year as well. While there’s no realistic way to recoup any of the nearly $18MM owed to Scott Kazmir, Hector Olivera and Yasiel Sierra combined for the 2019 season, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd listed Kemp among LA’s potential contract swap candidates. We’ve already seen contracts moved around the league this winter, and there are endless possibilities for money-shifting swaps that could make better use of salary space. In addition, trading relatively expensive players from areas of depth (such as Hill, Puig or Wood) for MLB-ready prospects or minimum-salary players who can fill an area of need would be another method of reallocating financial resources, even if the club ultimately needed to pay down some of the money owed to those players in order to get a deal done.
If they’re unable to find any financial wiggle room to pursue players on the free agent market, and/or are unwilling to spend much past the competitive balance tax line, the Dodgers have more than enough prospect capital in the farm system to address any needs via trade. They’re one of the few teams with both a need at catcher and enough assets in the farm system to swing a trade for Realmuto, so that’ll be one pursuit to pay close attention to. But it’s not difficult to imagine them pursuing upgrades at first base, either. Paul Goldschmidt would be the prime target there, though he’d likely come at a premium given the division rivalry between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Jose Abreu and Justin Smoak present alternative options, and it’s not out of the question that the Mariners could look to unload the recently-acquired Carlos Santana (who spent several years in LA’s farm system) onto another club, either. Adding a corner piece would allow the Dodgers to utilize Cody Bellinger more often as an outfielder, which would change the complexion of the unit discussed above. He has lined up there quite a bit over his first two seasons in the majors already. Those are all just speculative fits, obviously, but the overall point being made here is that Friedmann & Co. have some creative ways to upgrade and more than enough minor league talent to get a deal done if that ends up being their goal.
As far as MLB clubs go, the Dodgers are a major wild card this offseason. They could spend tens of millions or nothing at all; they could make a blockbuster trade for a star-caliber player or largely stand pat; they could make upgrades at multiple positions or begin the year mostly with the cards already in hand. Regardless of what happens, one thing is certain: there will be no shortage of Dodgers rumors to follow as the hot stove begins to flare up. Expect them to be connected to several high-priced free agents and big-name trade targets as the winter wears on. But even if they don’t ultimately make a big splash, fans can sleep easy knowing that their team is already built to make another serious run at a championship this coming season.
