Minor MLB Transactions: 11/27/18
We’ll track today’s minor moves from around the league here…
- The Cardinals announced yesterday that right-hander Derian Gonzalez has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Memphis. The 23-year-old pitched to a 3.51 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB.9 across three levels (Rookie, Double-A, Triple-A) in 33 1/3 innings during an injury-shortened 2018 season. That marked the first action in either Double-A or Triple-A for Gonzalez.
- Left-hander Hoby Milner cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A by the Rays, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). He’ll head to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee in hopes of once again cracking the roster. The 27-year-old Milner (28 in January) owns a 3.03 ERA in 38 2/3 big league innings, but there’s a fair bit of smoke and mirrors at play in that regard. Milner has just 7.0 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9 in the Majors and has stranded an unsustainable 86.2 percent of the runners he’s put on base. Fielding-independent metrics cast a much less favorable picture than his ERA (5.30 FIP, 5.65 xFIP, 5.07 SIERA). To his credit, Milner has held lefties to a laughable .177/.292/.277 slash through 98 plate appearances.
- The Marlins announced that right-hander Ben Meyer and outfielder Braxton Lee have both cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A New Orleans and Double-A Jacksonville, repsectively. The 25-year-old Meyer made his MLB debut in 2018 but was hammered for 22 runs in 19 innings. The 2017 season was much better for the righty, as he worked to a 2.02 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 111 1/3 innings — albeit against much younger competition between Class-A and Class-A Advanced. Lee, meanwhile won a Double-A batting title in 2017 but hit just .233/.316/.294 across three minor league levels in 2018 in addition to a weak showing in a brief MLB debut of his own (18 plate appearances). Lee received plus grades for his speed and above-average marks for his outfield defense in the past but has never shown any power.
- The Marlins have signed outfielder Harold Ramirez to a minor league contract, per John Dreker of PiratesProspects.com (Twitter link). The 24-year-old Ramirez spent a third consecutive season at the Double-A level in 2018 and put together a strong campaign, hitting .320/.365/.471 with 11 homers, 37 doubles and 16 steals in 505 trips to the plate. Ramirez was once considered to be on the fringes of the game’s top 100 prospects, but his stock has dipped in recent seasons — particularly in 2017 (.678 OPS in his second full season of Double-A ball).
- Australian righty Todd Van Steensel tweeted last night that he’s signed a minor league pact with the Padres. The 27-year-old has spent the past six seasons in the Twins organization, where he’s topped out at the Double-A level. Van Steensel has a career 2.11 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9 in 110 2/3 innings at that level, with all but two of his 66 Double-A appearances coming out of the bullpen.
Giants “Willing To Engage” In Talks On Madison Bumgarner
The Giants are “willing to engage” with rival organizations on trade scenarios involving star lefty Madison Bumgarner, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s not yet clear just how likely it is that the San Francisco organization will actually move one of its best-loved and most-accomplished players.
Bumgarner is a living baseball legend, owing less to his years of excellent regular-season service than to his incredible postseason feats. The version of the burly southpaw that owned the 2014 World Series will live on no matter the course of the remainder of his career. But after the two seasons he just endured, with a shoulder injury seeming to sap his strength, it’s at best questionable whether the Giants’ staff ace can still deliver a vintage performance.
While front office opinions on the matter no doubt vary, numerous teams figure at least to check in on the lefty. Three, at a minimum, have done so already, according to Morosi. The Brewers and Phillies “have had at least preliminary dialogue,” he writes, while the Braves “checked in” but do not appear to be engaged at the moment.
It’s said that newly installed Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is angling for young pitching in a deal, but it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be able to get any top-flight arms. After all, the upside here is limited by the fact that Bumgarner is one season away from free agency. His $12MM contract is plenty reasonable despite the questions, and the possibility of a qualifying offer (or even an extension) hold out hope for some future value. But the unanswered questions create significant downside, even on a single-season commitment.
At base, acquiring Bumgarner would mean buying a pitcher who has been a solid, not terribly durable performer over the past two seasons. He certainly did what he could to make it back from a shocking early-2017 dirt bike accident, and has somehow maintained a 3.29 ERA since the start of that ill-fated campaign, but it’s hard to look past the warning signs.
Before the injury, the now-29-year-old hurler had been good for about a strikeout per inning with two or fewer walks per nine innings, and a total of 200+ frames per season. He had run up four-straight sub-4.00 ERA campaigns, with peripherals that largely matched, all before his near-unimaginable playoff heroics. At his best, Bumgarner drew swings and misses at more than an 11 percent clip while allowing hard contact on less than a third of the balls put in play against him.
Operating at less than full capacity last year, Bumgarner’s swinging-strike rate fell to 9.2% and his K%-BB% dropped to 12.0%. (He had once sat at over a 10 percent K%-BB% for three-straight seasons.) And his hard-hit rate ballooned to 41.6% (per Fangraphs) — a massive rise for a pitcher who has averaged below 30 percent for his career.
The physical changes certainly appear to have had a role. While he was never a flamethrower, Bumgarner averaged as much as 93 mph with his fastball. It has now been three seasons since his heater average heater topped 92 mph. As the effectiveness of that table-setting offering declined, he increasingly went away from the four-seamer in 2018, throwing it just 34.2% of the time — well shy of his 45.6% career average. While the remainder of his arsenal was still effective, the heater had been the bread to his cutter’s butter.
Whether Bumgarner can regain some of the lost velocity, or find a way to make up for it, remains to be seen. There’s still reason to believe he’ll be at least a useful starting pitcher regardless, if for no other reasons than because of his undeniable competitive fire and remaining youth. While he gutted out the results last year, his 3.99 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, and 4.42 SIERA tell a different story — though it’s not a tale of an irredeemably lost pitcher. Even if he can’t regain much of his former luster, Bumgarner will bring the promise of some solid innings, at least so long as he’s able to remain healthy.
Of course, the allure of the Bumgarner of yore will no doubt play some role in negotiations. Clubs such as those rumored to have interest aren’t looking only for a useful, back-of-the-rotation piece. They all have designs on the postseason, and no doubt at least entertain dreams of Bumgarner not only helping to get there, but also rising to the occasion when the moment calls for it.
Perhaps, too, some teams’ scouts and analysts have sussed out some reasons to believe in a turnaround. It’s fair to guess that Zaidi is about as well-versed on the subject as anyone. His former club, the Dodgers, no doubt analyzed Bumgarner closely as a division rival. And he’s now privy to all that the Giants know about their own leading pitcher. Whether Bumgarner is dealt, and what he draws in return, will also tell us quite a bit about the San Francisco organization’s views — on the southpaw as well as the rest of the roster. After all, the club has the financial means to hold on to Bumgarner, whether to maintain fan interest and boost his value for the summer trade deadline or to pursue another extension.
The broader market is certainly a factor as well. Zaidi can only market one season of Bumgarner, but in some regards that’s a positive. There are plenty of intriguing lefty starters available in free agency — most notably, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, and Yusei Kikuchi — but all figure to command significant guarantees over multiple seasons. Giving up some young talent, rather than taking on potentially damaging long-term contract commitments, will surely hold appeal. Of course, it’s also true that the presence of so many alternatives — remember that James Paxton (via trade) and CC Sabathia went off the board already, and there are other talented starters available in trade free agency — will tend to reduce demand.
All said, it’s far from clear that there’ll be sufficient interest to force Zaidi’s hand. But the mere fact that there’s a possibility of a pre-season swap is itself notable, especially given Bumgarner’s special status in franchise lore. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how this situation plays out.
Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado
Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.
Nolan Arenado already earned $17.75 million in 2018, and put together another storied season. He led the league with 38 home runs, and hit .297 while knocking in 110 runs. He won yet another Gold Glove, yet another Silver Slugger, made the All Star Game, and again finished in the Top 5 of MVP Voting. That makes for his sixth, fourth, fourth, and third consecutive season in each of those accomplishments.
Entering his fourth year of arbitration, it stands to reason that Arenado will earn more than any player ever has in arbitration. After all, Josh Donaldson currently holds that record at $23 million just last year. Since the arbitration system generally awards raises based on platform year performance (except for in the player’s first year of arbitration eligibility), Donaldson’s level of pay would only reflect a $5.25 million raise, which is frankly too small for Arenado.
Indeed, the model predicts a big move up to $26.1MM for Arenado, which would represent a raise of over $8MM from his 2018 salary. Notably, too, there is some uncertainty present, since he earned $17.75 million last year only as part of a two year deal. Players do sometimes get treated differently in the event of returning to arbitration following multi-year deals. In the industry, this is often termed a “re-slot.” Probably the most recent notable example of such was Bryce Harper. In 2017, he received an $8.625 million raise from $5 to $13.625 million after a two-year deal. In that case, Harper had won the MVP Award in the first year of the two covered by the earlier agreement, and may have been treated as someone who would be re-slotted. In this case, if we were to estimate what Arenado would have earned in arbitration in 2018 based on his 2017 performance, we might have guessed $20.7 million rather than $17.75 million.
So, if anything, we would probably expect Arenado to argue for more than $26.1 million based on a re-slotting. Already in uncharted waters in terms of salary, that may or may not be a hard sell. After all, at that point, we would be looking at a “Kimbrel Rule” situation. That “rule” is named after Craig Kimbrel, and basically describes the maximum amount that we should expect a player to break the record raise for his service class. This rule exists because Craig Kimbrel’s first year of arbitration eligibility was so unique that my model had him earning significantly more than any closer had ever earned. We therefore capped his projection. The Kimbrel rule as applied to Arenado would give him a $26.75 million maximum, not much different than his $26.1 million projection.
If we look for comparables, it’s hard to find any for Arenado regardless of the method used to evaluate him. Donaldson would actually be a floor in my estimation. He hit .270 with 33 HR and 78 RBI in 2017, but in just 496 PA. With Arenado stepping up to the plate a whopping 673 times, and hitting .297 with 38 HR and 110 RBI, he will surely not command a smaller raise than Donaldson’s $6 million.
One potential comparable for Arenado could be teammate Charlie Blackmon, who produced .331/37/104 the year before last, and got a $6.7 million raise. We might expect that to be a rather close match for Arenado, although Blackmon’s ultimate raise was called into question by other agents at the time. Still, if we think that Arenado would come in at about a $6.7 million raise, that would land him at a $24.45 million salary — less than his $26.1 million projection. On the other hand, if Arenado’s Gold Gloves or higher service time factor in, we may still be north of that and closer to his projection.
Arenado will be an interesting, record-breaking case this year. With several complicating factors impacting his case, there’s a fairly large spread of dollars theoretically open for discussion. Ultimately, I suspect that the model is pretty close, but I could see being off by a couple million in either direction.
Nationals To Sign Henderson Alvarez
Right-handed hurler Henderson Alvarez has reportedly inked a minor-league deal with the Nationals that includes a spring invite. It appears that Ángel D. Conde Trujillo had the news first on Twitter, with multiple stateside reporters tweeting the signing as well this evening.
Alvarez, 28, is again trying to make his way back to the majors after his career was derailed by shoulder woes. The former Marlins hurler, who signed with but never threw for the Athletics in 2016, appeared briefly with the Phillies in 2017 but did not pitch in affiliated ball in the most recent season.
While he was away, Alvarez did throw in the Mexican League. He turned in 120 2/3 innings in the Mexican League, working to a 3.58 ERA with 4.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. Alvarez has also been pitching in winter ball in his native Venezuela, where he has allowed twenty earned runs on 43 hits over 30 2/3 frames while recording just ten strikeouts and five walks.
Needless to say, those numbers don’t inspire confidence. But it’s fair to note that Alvarez has never been a strikeout pitcher. Indeed, he barely averaged more than a strikeout every other inning as a big leaguer. But he did pitch to a 3.82 ERA in 577 2/3 career MLB innings, owing in large part to his ability to limit the free passes (2.2 BB/9) and long balls (0.87 HR/9) while churning out groundballs (54.8% GB%).
For the Nationals, Alvarez is simply a player who’ll have a chance to show something in camp. The big question, perhaps, is whether he’ll be able to regain some of his lost velocity. After sitting at 94 with his four-seamer and sinker from 2011 to 2014, Alvarez clocked in at less than 92 mph with both pitches during his injury-shortened 2015 effort and short-lived 2017 return.
Braves Designate Adam McCreery
The Braves have designated lefty Adam McCreery for assignment, per a club announcement. His roster spot will go to just-inked slugger Josh Donaldson.
McCreery, 25, came to the Atlanta organization in the early-season 2016 swap that sent Jhoulys Chacin to the Angels. He has steadily moved up the ladder in the Braves system since his arrival, even briefly cracking the big leagues last year.
The 2018 season was McCreery’s first in the upper minors. He produced solid results, working to a 3.59 ERA in 62 2/3 innings (including his frames in the Arizona Fall League), but coughed up 5.7 free passes per nine to go with a healthy tally of 11.2 K/9. Whether the 6’9 southpaw can stay in the zone enough to establish himself at the MLB level remains to be seen.
Braves Sign Josh Donaldson
7:27pm: The signing is now official, with the Braves announcing it.
1:35pm: The Braves have reportedly made the largest free-agent strike of the offseason so far, agreeing to terms on a one-year contract with former American League MVP Josh Donaldson. The contract is said to guarantee Donaldson the same $23MM salary he earned in 2018 and will give the MVP Sports client an opportunity to re-enter free agency next winter — hopefully on the heels of a healthier, more productive season than the injury-ruined 2018 campaign through which he just struggled.
Donaldson, 33 in December, was limited to just 219 plate appearances this year as he battled a shoulder issue early in the season and a calf injury that cost him roughly three months of action. He posted a solid but unspectacular .246/.352/.449 batting line and eight homers when healthy — above-average production relative to the rest of the league but a tremendously far cry from the composite .282/.377/.524 batting line he logged from 2013-17.
[Related: Updated Braves depth chart and Braves payroll outlook]
If healthy, Donaldson will give an already imposing Braves lineup a massive boost — to say nothing of top-shelf defense at the hot corner. Atlanta already had premium glovework at third base thanks to Johan Camargo, but the Braves will now have the luxury to deploy Camargo at a number of positions. Camargo, soon to turn 25, can give the Braves some cover at third base, shortstop and second base at the very least. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Atlanta try him in the outfield corners during Spring Training as well; if Camargo proved capable, the Braves could deploy him in a Marwin Gonzalez or Ben Zobrist-esque fashion, granting him fairly regular at-bats while spelling Donaldson, Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies, among others. The signing of Donaldson could push back the debut of prospect Austin Riley by nearly a full year, but Riley is still just 21 years old and has only played 150 games above Class-A Advanced. Some additional development time certainly won’t hurt — especially when considering his 29.5 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A last season.
The agreement with Donaldson marks a reunion between the slugger and general manager Alex Anthopoulos. The pair are well acquainted from Anthopoulos’ time as the Blue Jays’ general manager, with the trade that brought Donaldson to Toronto standing out as one of the most successful moves of Anthopoulos’ front-office career. (Kendall Graveman, Franklin Barreto, Sean Nolin and Brett Lawrie went to the A’s in return.)
The $23MM salary, combined with the reported $2MM salary the Braves will pay fellow free-agent addition Brian McCann, will push Atlanta’s Opening Day payroll projection to just north of $117MM. That’s already just about $1MM shy of their 2018 mark and $5MM shy of the all-time franchise record, so it seems apparent that the Braves’ NL East title and emerging core have spurred ownership to become more aggressive in terms of payroll. By adding Donaldson to the heart of a lineup that also features Rookie of the Year Ronald Acuna and perennial MVP candidate Freddie Freeman, the Braves have made an early splash that’ll have significant ramifications on the 2019 division race and put additional pressure on rivals like the Phillies, Nationals and Mets to further act to bolster their rosters as they seek to remain competitive in a rapidly improving division.
Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM first tweeted that the two sides were nearing a deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the agreement and the terms.
Mets Hire Jim Riggleman As Bench Coach
The Mets announced that they have hired Jim Riggleman to serve as their next bench coach, with Jon Heyman tweeting the news just before the team did. He’ll be the top member of manager Mickey Callaway’s staff.
In 2018, Callaway’s first at the helm of the dugout, the club utilized Gary DiSarcina as the bench coach. But DiSarcina was reassigned to serve as third base coach, with new GM Brodie Van Wagenen making clear the organization preferred to bring on a new bench coach that had prior experience running games in the National League.
Rigglemen certainly fits the mold of what the Mets said they were seeking. The 66-year-old has served as the manager of five clubs, four of them in the National League. Through 13 total seasons as a big league skipper, including gigs with the Padres, Cubs, Mariners, Nationals, and Reds, Riggleman carries a 726-904 record.
Most recently, Riggleman functioned in an interim capacity with the Reds. He managed the Cincinnati ballclub for most of the 2018 campaign, taking over for Bryan Price after opening the year as their bench coach. Riggleman was considered as a candidate for the full-time position but was bypassed in favor of David Bell.
Blue Jays Claim Oliver Drake, Designate Mark Leiter Jr.
The Blue Jays announced tonight that they have claimed righty Oliver Drake off waivers from the Rays. To open a 40-man spot, the Toronto club designated fellow right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. for assignment.
This move continues a seemingly never-ending tour of the majors for Drake, a 31-year-old hurler with intriguing stuff who has seen many a 40-man roster but rarely stays in the same place for long. Since the start of the 2017 campaign, he has appeared with the Orioles, Brewers, Indians, Angels, Twins, and Blue Jays.
Indeed, Drake set a record last year by appearing with five teams. That did not include the Rays, who claimed him after the season concluded. This will be Drake’s second stop in Toronto; he stopped in for two appearances last season. Of course, it would hardly be surprising if Drake ends up being bumped from the Jays’ 40-man once again over the offseason.
So, what’s the fascination here? Drake has only a 4.50 career ERA through 137 1/3 innings. But he owns a 12.6% swinging-strike rate in the big leagues and has generally turned in much more promising peripherals. Last year, for example, he carried 9.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 with a 44.9% groundball rate through 47 2/3 frames — though a .353 BABIP and 63.7% strand rate left him with a 5.29 ERA.
As for the 27-year-old Leiter, he has found success at times in the upper minors but struggled to transition to the major-league mound. He has thrown 114 frames of 5.53 ERA ball in the bigs, due in no small part to allowing home runs at a clip of 1.97 per nine innings. Leiter, too, has been better in the eyes of ERA estimators that presume the dingers are in part a reflection of poor fortune, as he owns a 4.37 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA in the majors. Teams in search of rotation depth will surely have interest.
Derek Dietrich Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency
Infielder/outfielder Derek Dietrich has elected free agency after clearing waivers, the Marlins announced today. He had been designated for assignment recently.
Dietrich, 29, possesses a quality left-handed bat that would aid many contending lineups. He also has a varied positional background, but he’s not considered a very good defender at any of the spots — second base, third base, and the corner outfield — he has tried out over the years.
Clearly, no other clubs were interested in paying the projected $4.8MM Dietrich would have commanded in arbitration. He’ll now be available to the highest bidder, with any acquiring team also picking up an added season of arb control (assuming he signs a one-year pact).
That rate of pay would be quite reasonable if Dietrich could even hold his own in the field, but defensive metrics have always been skeptical and it seems the scouts agree. He moved out of the infield in 2018 as the Marlins tried to find a fit, but his time on the grass hasn’t gone well either. Dietrich has graded quite poorly in left field over 1,120 career innings.
All that said, it still stands to reason that Dietrich will get some bites in free agency from clubs that like the idea of utilizing him as a bench bat that can at least plausibly fill in around the diamond. It doesn’t help that there are so many useful infielders floating around the market, but few can match his overall offensive productivity.
Through 1,716 plate appearances over the past four years, Dietrich owns a .262/.344/.428 batting line with 46 home runs — good for a 114 OPS+. He’s best utilized against right-handed pitching, which limits his overall utility but does mean he could occupy the larger share of a potential platoon pairing.
Angels Release Alex Meyer, Jose Miguel Fernandez
NOVEMBER 26: Meyer has been placed on unconditional release waivers, the club announced, while Fernandez has become a free agent after clearing waivers himself.
NOVEMBER 21: The Angels announced that they’ve designated right-hander Alex Meyer for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for newly acquired left-hander Dillon Peters. The Halos have also requested unconditional release waivers on infielder Jose Miguel Fernandez, who was designated for assignment yesterday.
Meyer, 29 in January, was once a first-round pick of the Nationals (2011) and, for years, was regarded as one of the game’s elite pitching prospects. However, a series of shoulder injuries throughout his time with the Nationals, Twins and Angels has derailed that promising career. The former Kentucky standout underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in that problematic right shoulder last September and was said by the team to have suffered a setback in his recovery earlier this month.
Meyer, acquired by the Angels along with Ricky Nolasco in a trade that sent Hector Santiago and Alan Busenitz to Minnesota, has thrown just 95 1/3 big league innings. He’s posted a 4.63 ERA with 10.1 K/9 against 5.9 BB/9. He’s also notched a 3.52 ERA in parts of nine minor league seasons while averaging better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.