Arbitration Breakdown: George Springer
Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available.
George Springer enters his second year of arbitration eligibility (as a Super Two player) having compiled a solid .283 average to go along with 34 home runs and 85 runs batted in in 2017. As a result, he is projected for a $5MM raise to take him up to an $8.9MM salary in 2018.
One thing complicating Springer’s case is something that could affect a great number of cases this year—the high home run level throughout the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs, which represented a 26 percent increase over the league average from the previous five seasons. As such, when examining players with similar totals over that five-year span, there’s no way of knowing whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Springer the same as they would in an environment when home runs were less prolific.
My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; rather, the data has shown that run environment has not historically been a significant component in the arbitration process. Hitters in high-scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower-scoring years, and pitchers in low-scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high-scoring years. Springer could potentially be treated by a panel (or negotiated with in the shadow of what such a panel would say) as someone who hit closer to 26 home runs than someone with 34. But even still, his list of comparables shows solid earning potential.
There have only been a couple players entering their second year of eligibility with averages north of .275 and at least 25 home runs in the past five years, and both are from last year. Manny Machado got a $6.5MM raise after hitting .294 with 37 homers and 96 RBIs. Charlie Blackmon got a $3.8MM raise after hitting .324 with 29 home runs and knocking in 82 runs.
Machado is a more obvious ceiling because his numbers are not inflated by Coors Field, and he hit substantially more home runs than Blackmon in 2016. Blackmon might serve as a floor in Springer’s case due to the fact that he hit fewer balls into the seats, despite playing in Coors. However, his high batting average could make him more favorable at the same time. In the end, I think Springer might be closer to Blackmon than he is to Machado.
Few other players really show up as decent comparables, especially when limiting the field to those who did not sign multi-year deals. Looking to a statistical comparable that did sign a multi-year deal, J.D. Martinez signed a two-year contract covering 2016-17 which included a $3MM raise in the first year of the pact. It also was preceded by an exchange of figures in which Martinez asked for a $4.25MM raise, while the Tigers countered with an offer of a $2.25MM raise. Considering Martinez’s .282, 38 homers and 102 RBIs in the platform season for that two-year deal, this could suggest a lower number for Springer.
I am guessing Springer ends up closer to a $4MM raise than $5MM based on the cases of Blackmon and Martinez. But with little comparability and the uncertainty of how a panel will consider the relevance of Coors Field or Martinez’s multi-year deal, Springer may be able to land closer to that $5MM raise. This would still be south of Machado’s $6.5MM raise but would safely beat the other two players.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dave Cameron Joins Padres; Marlins Hire Bradley Woodrum
The Padres and Marlins each made a huge acquisition this week, though not the kind we typically cover here on MLBTR. Yesterday, FanGraphs stalwart Dave Cameron announced he will be joining the Padres to help build out their Research and Development department. And this morning, former MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum announced he’s joining the Marlins analytics team. Cameron and Woodrum were among the best sabermetric analysts operating in the public sphere, and we’ll sorely miss reading their work.
I first encountered Dave’s work about ten years ago, on U.S.S. Mariner. More than anyone, Dave was able to do incredibly intelligent baseball analysis in an understandable, easy-to-read way. Dave is a pioneer in the field of sabermetrics, and I made a point to read just about everything he wrote. I don’t remember much about the early days of FanGraphs, except that it had more graphs. When Dave joined, his writing made FanGraphs a must-read as well. Of course, the site has brought in countless talented writers and analysts since then. I first reached out to Dave in 2009 in hopes of understanding WAR better. He’s been gracious with his time over the years when I’ve approached him with many questions and has been a longtime friend of MLBTR. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke to Dave, who has had previous interest from MLB teams, about his decision to accept the Padres’ offer.
Back in 2015, Bradley Woodrum applied for a project we were launching on MLBTR: an attempt to create a model that predicts the chance of a pitcher having Tommy John surgery (updated last September). I knew Brad from his stellar work at FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. The Tommy John project was a daunting undertaking, and I was amazed by Brad’s analytical abilities, professionalism, and perseverance in getting the project to the finish line. It took the better part of a year, but Brad delivered what I considered to be the best possible TJS prediction model, given the limitations of public data. I’m proud to have hosted that work on MLBTR. Armed with the superior data of a Major League club, I expect Brad to do great things.
MLBTR wishes the best to Dave Cameron and Bradley Woodrum in their new careers!
Agency Changes: Nelson Cruz, Jake Odorizzi
Here’s the latest agency news from around the game:
- Mariners slugger Nelson Cruz has hired Bryce Dixon and Primo Sports Group, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter). The 37-year-old Cruz will give Dixon’s group a second premier player, joining right-hander Johnny Cueto as the two biggest fish at a smaller agency. Though Cruz will turn 38 this July, he remains among the game’s most productive hitters, as evidenced by last year’s .288/.375/.549 batting line and 39 homers. Cruz’s four-year, $58MM deal has proven to be an absolute bargain for the Mariners, as he’s posted a combined .292/.368/.557 with 126 long balls in the first three seasons of the deal. He’s more than justified the commitment already, but if his 2018 season comes anywhere near the level of consistency he’s shown in the first three years of the pact, he should have little problem securing a multi-year deal next offseason.
- Perhaps unsurprisingly, in the wake of yesterday’s unsettling news, Rays righty Jake Odorizzi has decided to move his representation to Excel Sports Management, according to FanRag’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). Odorizzi had been with CSE prior to agent Jason Wood’s dismissal from the agency in the wake of disturbing allegations made against him. Odorizzi becomes the second CSE client to jump to Excel in the wake of the scandal, joining Pirates prospect Mitch Keller. In Odorizzi, Excel will be adding another established big league client with a semi-notable arbitration case pending. Odorizzi is in his second trip through that process and has a projected arbitration salary of $6.5MM for the coming season. He’s controllable by the Rays through the 2019 season, though he has, of course, been oft-mentioned as a possible trade candidate.
Both of these switches are now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains representation info on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. Agents, if you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Mariners, Christian Bergman Agree To Minor League Deal
The Mariners and right-hander Christian Bergman have agreed to a minor league pact, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). The All Bases Covered Sports Management client will be returning to the Seattle organization for a second season and will head to Major League Spring Training.
Bergman, 30 in May, appeared in 13 games for Seattle last season — eight starts and five relief appearances — working to a total of 54 innings. In that time, the former Rockies hurler posted an even 5.00 ERA with 5.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.0 HR/9 and a 37.7 percent ground-ball rate. Though he’s never experienced much in the way of prolonged success in the Majors (5.58 ERA in 201 2/3 frames between the Rockies and Mariners), Bergman has demonstrated solid K/BB numbers in the minors. In 235 innings at the Triple-A level, Bergman owns a 4.40 ERA with 6.2 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9.
[Related: Updated Seattle Mariners depth chart]
The Mariners have been tied to numerous rotation options this offseason and still have somewhat of an unsettled mix at present. James Paxton, Felix Hernandez and Mike Leake are locks to take the ball every fifth day, health permitting. Righty Erasmo Ramirez likely has an inside track on a rotation spot as well after pitching well in his second stint with Seattle following a trade from the Rays last summer.
The 40-man roster features numerous candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation, including lefties Marco Gonzales, Ariel Miranda and Sam Moll as well as right-handers Andrew Moore, Max Povse, Chase De Jong and Robert Whalen. Hisashi Iwakuma headlines Seattle’s collection of non-roster invitees, which also includes Bergman and fellow re-signed righty Casey Lawrence.
Nationals Re-Sign Edwin Jackson To Minor League Deal
The Nationals and right-hander Edwin Jackson have agreed to a minor league contract, according to his agents at the ESQ Agency. Jackson’s deal comes with a $1.5MM base salary as well as an additional $1.4MM worth of incentives.
The 34-year-old Jackson returned for a second stint with the Nats in 2017, signing a midseason minor league pact after initially spending time in the Orioles organization. Jackson posted a pristine 0.44 ERA in 20 1/3 Triple-A frames for the Nationals before being called up to the big league roster following Joe Ross‘ season-ending Tommy John surgery. He’d go on to make 13 starts for the Nationals down the stretch, registering a 5.07 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 38 percent ground-ball rate.
Jackson turned in a 2.94 ERA through his first eight starts, though he surrendered a whopping nine home runs through those 49 frames. That susceptibility to the long ball caught up to him over his final five starts, as Jackson was tagged for 24 earned runs in 22 innings of work. That said, he did average 93.6 mph on his heater with the Nationals and turn in an above-average 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate.
[Related: Washington Nationals depth chart]
The Nats will once again rely upon Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark in the top four spots of the rotation this coming season, though the fifth spot looks to be unsettled as Spring Training approaches. Jackson will join the race for that spot, vying with fellow right-handers Erick Fedde, A.J. Cole and Austin Voth as well as left-hander Tommy Milone (who also signed a minor league deal).
Of course, the Nationals have at times been linked to various starting pitching targets on both the free-agent and trade markets, leaving open the possibility that they’ll bring in another option to whom they’ll promise that remaining rotation vacancy.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Cain, Hosmer, Giants, Bruce
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Tigers Claim Johnny Barbato
The Tigers have claimed righty Johnny Barbato off waivers from the Pirates, the teams announced and Robert Murray of Fan Rag first tweeted. He was designated recently by Pittsburgh when the club claimed fellow righty Shane Carle.
Barbato, 25, saw 28 2/3 innings of action in 2017, managing a 4.08 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9. Needless to say, that walk tally will need to go down if Barbato hopes to succeed in the majors. He has never shown major control issues in the minors, though, and he did demonstrate a 94+ mph fastball and average (for a reliever) 11.3% swinging-strike rate.
Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant
Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available.
Star Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant enters arbitration for the first time with a compelling case to compete with historical records. The current record for first time eligible players still goes all the way back to Ryan Howard in 2008, who earned $10MM after a 47 home run season that brought his career total to 129 home runs. While that price point is now ten years old, it is still an unbroken record. Buster Posey got close with $8MM, but that is already five years old.
Those two players share something in common with Bryant and no one else: they had received both a Rookie of the Year Award and a Most Valuable Player Award prior to entering arbitration. The only other such player would have been Mike Trout, but he signed a multi-year deal the year before reaching arbitration eligibility. Awards can be a huge part of arbitration hearings, especially for first-time eligible players like this, which immediately explains why Bryant is projected to earn $8.9MM, nearly halfway between Posey and Howard. Joey Votto also had an MVP Award (but no ROY) in 2011 when he received an $8MM salary, but he ended up agreeing to a multi-year deal and did not exchange figures before that, so he is not very useful for our purposes.
When it comes to actual numbers rather than hardware, Bryant has a good case as well. He hit .295/29/73 in his platform year and has amassed .288/94/274 for his career. Howard hit .268/47/136 in his platform, with .291/129/353 in his career. So he would be appear to represent a ceiling if the deal was more recent. That said, Bryant might argue that his case is old enough that it should not act as a ceiling on his earnings.
Posey hit .336/24/103 in his platform year and had .314/46/191 for his career line entering arbitration. The batting average (and the fact that he is a catcher) makes Posey look more favorable, but the fact that Bryant has twice the career home runs might make his case more impressive in a process that leans heavily on home runs. Votto’s numbers are actually somewhat closer though, with a .324/37/113 platfrom and .314/90/298 career. Of course, his multi-year deal limits his usefulness as a comparable.
Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado could serve as floors. Neither had the hardware, and both had relatively similar numbers except for far fewer career home runs when they entered the arb process. Machado had a .286/35/86 platform and a .281/68/215 career, while Arenado had a .287/42/130 platform and a .281/70/243 career. So I would guess that their identical $5MM salaries two years ago are a solid floor for Bryant.
I suspect Posey might actually be the best comparable, despite the fact that he plays a premium defensive position. Adding in salary inflation, his $8MM salary in 2013 puts Bryant around $9.5MM. I suspect he will not break Howard’s record, so this seems pretty believable. The Cubs could easily try to argue for a lower number like Arenado or Machado, but probably will have trouble making that case. However, the team could still try to push Bryant south of Posey’s $8MM. There is a large range of plausible outcomes for a case like this; it would represent a fascinating hearing if it went to a panel.
White Sox Sign Miguel Gonzalez
The White Sox have officially agreed to a one-year deal with free agent righty Miguel Gonzalez, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported (via Twitter). He’ll receive a $4.75MM salary, the team announced (and as Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweeted). Outfielder Jacob May was designated for assignment to open a roster spot.
Gonzalez, 33, spent the bulk of the past two seasons in Chicago, though he was dealt away to the Rangers in late August. Now, he’ll return to help bolster a rotation that features several young hurlers as well as veteran James Shields.
For a rebuilding White Sox organization, adding Gonzalez fits with earlier moves. The club struck a contract with catcher Welington Castillo and dealt for veteran relievers Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan.
In sum, the moves have added about $28MM in commitments, most of it for the coming season, a manageable amount as the South Siders endeavor to supplement — and reduce the burden on — a budding young core. The White Sox roster still includes other veterans such as Shields, Jose Abreu, and Avisail Garcia. While Abreu and Garcia have arisen in trade talks, to this point indications are that they’ll likely stay put.
[RELATED: Updated White Sox Depth Chart]
Nobody will mistake the addition of Gonzalez as a signing designed to push for contention, but he has proven still capable of giving innings. In 2017, he threw 156 total frames over 27 starts, working to a 4.62 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Gonzalez carried career lows in average fastball velocity (91.2 mph) and swinging-strike rate (6.7%), though those figures aren’t wildly out of line with his established norms.
Beyond Gonzalez and Shields, the White Sox rotation will likely be made up of far less established pitchers. Youngsters Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Carson Fulmer all have top prospect pedigrees, but have yet to turn in full MLB seasons. Dylan Covey — who was actually once a first-round selection, going unsigned at that time — is also an option, though he struggled badly in his MLB debut in 2017. Carlos Rodon will be expected to hold down a spot once he’s at full health. The White Sox likely hope that top pitching prospect Michael Kopech will force his way into the picture at some point, though that’s no sure thing at present. All told, it’s not difficult to see why the organization felt it needed another reliable rotation piece.
As for the 25-year-old May, he made his MLB debut last year but struggled badly in a short sample. He has not fared much better at the plate in the upper minors; in 2017, he carried a .248/.307/.325 batting line in 467 Triple-A plate appearances.
Latest On J.D. Martinez
It has been known for some time that the Red Sox and J.D. Martinez have ongoing interest, with Boston reportedly dangling a five-year offer. In the latest update, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes that “acquaintances” of the open market’s top slugger believe Martinez is willing to wait to get a six-year deal — even if it means allowing camp to open without a contract in place.
Dollars remain uncertain, but Heyman provides some round numbers worth noting. Martinez is believed not only to be in search of six years, but at a premium rate of $30MM or more annually. To this point, the level of interest from teams is said to be “somewhere in the $120 million to $150 million range.”
Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Martinez — who ranks second on the MLBTR list of the top 50 free agents — could land that sixth year, but at a $150MM total guarantee. We tabbed the Red Sox as the likeliest landing spot, with a variety of other teams standing as plausible alternatives.
The 30-year-old Martinez has unquestionably established himself as a top-flight hitter, with a .300/.362/.574 output at the plate since the start of 2014. That said, he lags somewhat in his glovework and baserunning. Poor grades from defensive metrics improved somewhat in 2017, though UZR and DRS both pegged Martinez as below-average in right. And Fangraphs has graded him as a notably sub-par presence on the basepaths in each of the past two seasons.
Despite his limitations, Martinez is understandably viewed as a top target. That status leaves significant leverage to work with for his agent, Scott Boras, who has frequently found big money late in the offseason. To date, Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce have each landed at or above MLBTR’s expectations with strong three-year deals, though neither broke through to earn the extra season they were seeking. Martinez and Boras evidently feel there’s still a possibility that they can convince a club to increase the commitment for a higher grade bat.
Heyman’s report indicates that organizations beyond the Red Sox are still in the hunt, which may help explain why Martinez has not been willing to move off his bargaining position. As he has suggested previously, Heyman says at least one other team has put five years on the table. Whether or not that’s the incumbent Diamondbacks is not known, but the report suggests Arizona is a serious suitor.
Still, all indications are that Boston is the most plausible fit. Reporters including Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford have examined things recently from the Sox’ perspective. The organization is obviously willing to plunk down some big cash for Martinez, but to this point has not been willing (or perhaps has not felt compelled) to promise another season. It also may still be factor that the Red Sox would plan to utilize Martinez primarily as a DH, while he’d prefer to play in the outfield.