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Submit Your Questions For The MLBTR Mailbag

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It’s time for another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. Our last edition fielded questions on free agents Wei-Yin Chen, Doug Fister and Mike Leake in addition to breaking down a potential Lorenzo Cain extension and offering baseball book recommendations for the holiday season.

We’ll run another edition of the mailbag later tonight. If you have a question you’ve been kicking around and would like to hear our take, let us know via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. While volume prevents our ability to come close to responding to all of the questions, remember that you can also always join our Tuesday and Thursday afternoon chats, hosted by myself and Jeff Todd, respectively.

Indians Sign Tom Gorzelanny To Minor League Deal

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The Indians announced that they have signed veteran left-hander Tom Gorzelanny to a minor league deal with an invitation to Major League Spring Training. Cleveland also confirmed its previously reported minor league deal with lefty Joe Thatcher. Gorzelanny is represented by Relativity Sports, while Thatcher is a client of Platinum Sports.

Gorzelanny, 33, spent the 2015 season in the Tigers’ bullpen but found himself unable to recreate the strong results had delivered from 2012-14 with the Nationals and Brewers (combined 3.13 ERA over 178 1/3 innings). With Detroit, Gorzelanny totaled 39 1/3 innings but struggled to a 5.95 ERA. While an elevated BABIP played some role in the struggles, Gorzelanny also saw his strikeout rate dip and, most troublesome of all, his walk rate soar to 5.3 per nine innings — far and away his worst mark since becoming a reliever. Bloated walk rate notwithstanding, Gorzelanny still held lefties in check for the most part, yielding a .219/.317/.347 batting line. However, right-handers clobbered Gorzelanny to the tune of a .349/.454/.610 slash line. Gorzelanny has long had a platoon split, but 2015 was easily the most notable it has ever been.

The pair of lefties will compete for spots in the Cleveland bullpen, where Kyle Crockett and Giovanni Soto are the current options for manager Terry Francona.

Latest On Scott Kazmir’s Market

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Over the weekend, the Royals and A’s were among the clubs linked to free-agent lefty Scott Kazmir, and this morning, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale calls those two teams, along with the Orioles, Cardinals, Nationals and Astros the finalists for Kazmir (links to Twitter). That’s a fairly lengthy list of finalists, of course, and with so many clubs in the mix, it’s not entirely surprising to see Nightengale add that no deal is imminent.

On Friday, it was reported that Kazmir has received multiple three-year offers in the range of $12-13MM per season. With a number of comparable offers of that nature already in hand, Kazmir may very well be holding out for a fourth guaranteed season or, at least, a notable increase in average annual value. Of the listed clubs, only Oakland has added arms to its rotation picture this offseason (Rich Hill and, reportedly, Henderson Alvarez, though his deal has yet to be announced by the club). The Royals struck a deal to retain right-hander Chris Young but haven’t penciled in a replacement for the departed Johnny Cueto just yet. The Astros have been more focused on their bullpen and parted with a significant package to pry Ken Giles away from the Phillies. The Cardinals made a significant run at David Price but ultimately came up short, while Baltimore’s focus has been on Chris Davis. The Nationals have pursued both Jason Heyward and Mike Leake this winter — the former more aggressively than the latter — but didn’t sign either (Leake remains a free agent) and have lost Jordan Zimmermann to the Tigers. Any of the involved parties stands out as a reasonable fit for Kazmir, though from a financial standpoint, if one club is to separate itself from the others, the Athletics and Royals seem less likely to do so than their reported competitors for Kazmir, if history is any indication.

Kazmir, 32 in a month, recorded a 3.33 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate from 2014-15 — the duration of a two-year, $22MM contract initially signed with Oakland. A fourth guaranteed season for him could understandably be cause for hesitation among interested clubs, as he comes with quite a lengthy injury history and has wilted somewhat late in each of the past two seasons. However, he’s also a more affordable alternative to five-year hopefuls Wei-Yin Chen and Mike Leake. And, unlike some of his competition (Chen, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy), Kazmir won’t require a signing club to forfeit a draft pick.

Quick Hits: Soler, Lucroy, Swanson, Chen

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In a radio interview on The 670 Score’s “Inside The Clubhouse” show, Theo Epstein said the Cubs are committed to Jorge Soler as a big part of their roster, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports.  “We are putting our stock into his future,” Epstein said.  “Barring anything [an overwhelming trade offer], he knows to ignore all the trade rumors and take it as a compliment.”  Epstein praised Soler’s hitting potential and his offseason training, as Soler “is down to 225 [pounds] and is working hard on his quickness and flexibility” to improve his right field defense.  The Cubs could add a defense-first backup outfielder, Epstein hinted, which probably isn’t a surprise given Soler’s inexperience and the questions about whether or not Kyle Schwarber can handle left field.  Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • The Brewers don’t want to sell low on Jonathan Lucroy in the wake of his underwhelming 2015 season, though they could be taking a risk by waiting to make a trade, Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes in a piece for FOX Sports.  If Lucroy’s concussion and injury history continues to diminish his ability, Milwaukee will have missed its window to recoup significant value for the former All-Star.  Midseason deals for catchers are also somewhat uncommon, as it’s somewhat hard for a new catcher to instantly develop a rapport with pitchers.
  • The Braves targeted Dansby Swanson even before they created room at short by dealing Andrelton Simmons, GM John Coppolella tells Fangraphs’ David Laurila.  “We’ve been in talks with Arizona since the end of the 2015 season,” Coppolella said. “We hoped to get Swanson, but we didn’t know if, or how, the deal would materialize. We saw him as a fit for us, whether we made the Simmons trade or not. We just want really good players and he’s a really good player.”
  • Wei-Yin Chen may have the most value of any remaining free agent pitcher, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello writes, as he has posted comparable numbers to Jeff Samardzija or Jordan Zimmermann and probably won’t cost as much.  Of course, Chen and his agent Scott Boras are looking for healthy compensation for the southpaw’s services in the form of a five-year, $100MM contract.
  • While opt-out clauses are usually considered to provide little benefit to a team, the Boston Herald’s Scott Lauber notes that there’s certainly upside if a club can avoid paying big money to a player outside of his prime years.  For instance, Lauber reports that had the Red Sox been successful in obtaining Alex Rodriguez from the Rangers in the 2003-04 offseason, they had no intention of re-signing him after he opted out of his deal (as expected) after the 2007 season.  The Yankees, who did deal for A-Rod and then re-signed him to a whopping 10-year, $275MM contract after 2007, have surely regretted not letting Rodriguez walk when they had the chance.
  • Blue Jays director of analytics Joe Sheehan is profiled by the Toronto Star’s Brendan Kennedy, who notes that Sheehan’s promotion to the newly-created position is a sign of the team’s increased focus on analytics under Mark Shapiro.
  • The Giants are the most likely team to sign Yoenis Cespedes, MLB.com’s Jim Duquette opines.  The Tigers, Orioles, White Sox and Angels round out Duquette’s list of Cespedes’ most likely landing spots.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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Of the top 10 entries on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, half are already off the market.  David Price, Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto have all signed new contracts, though there’s obviously still lots of top-tier talent still available, particularly on the position player side.  Indeed, the five remaining top-10 players are all everyday players — three left fielders, a shortstop and a first baseman.  There’s also been a notable lack of clarity about each player’s market (compounded by the fact that several of the same teams are interested in these same names), leaving some question about exactly who might come off the board next.  Here are the candidates, in the order of their ranking on MLBTR’s list…

Justin Upton: There have been surprisingly few solid rumors about Upton’s market, as the Angels and Orioles have both at least spoken with Upton’s representatives but there’s been little evidence of a serious pursuit.  He carries a high projected price tag (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thinks Upton will get a seven-year, $147MM deal) and he’ll cost his new team a draft pick as qualifying offer compensation, though Upton’s main problem could simply be the glut of other quality outfielders on the free agent and trade markets.  That said, it’s hard to believe Upton won’t eventually wind up with a lucrative deal given the number of potential suitors that could use a big outfield bat.

Chris Davis: The Orioles, Davis’ former team, made a $150MM offer to the slugger that has since been taken off the table.  The Cardinals, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been speculatively linked to Davis but Baltimore is the only club known to be firmly pursuing him.  If Davis and agent Scott Boras are really looking for an eight-year, $200MM offer, however, it’s hard to see any team taking the plunge at that price, despite Boras’ track record of scoring higher-than-expected contracts for his clients.

Yoenis Cespedes: Upton and Cespedes share many of the same issues clouding their market, though Cespedes is two years older but can be signed without draft pick compensation.  (Cespedes, in fact, is the only player of these five who doesn’t have the qualifying offer hanging over his free agency.)  The Orioles and Angels have also been lightly linked to Cespedes, with the Tigers, Royals and Giants also being involved.  The White Sox have also been mentioned as a possible suitor for Cespedes or Upton, as they have a left field vacancy.

Alex Gordon: Though Gordon is four and two years older, respectively, than Upton and Cespedes, he’s been getting a lot more interest from a variety of teams — the Cardinals, Astros, Royals, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, Orioles and Tigers have all been linked to Gordon at one time or another this winter.  At least a few of those teams, however, can probably be eliminated from contention due to other moves; the Cubs signed Heyward and Colby Rasmus accepted Houston’s qualifying offer, for instance.  Dierkes projected a five-year, $105MM deal for Gordon, so it’s not surprising that teams are exploring their options before deciding to give up a draft pick and give a nine-figure deal to a 32-year-old.

Ian Desmond: Whereas the other four names on this list had good-to-excellent walk years, Desmond headed into free agency burdened by a poor 2015 season (.233/.290/.384 in 641 PA, 83 wRC+, -3.7 UZR/150).  It’s made for a slow market for Desmond, as teams with shortstop needs like the Padres and Mets have shown only marginal interest.  What may help Desmond, however, is that he may not be limited to shortstop-needy teams, as his agents have been pushing him as a multi-position player capable of handling the outfield.  The strategy seems to be working to some extent, as multiple teams are considering Desmond not just at short or the outfield but also at second and third.

With all these factors in mind, who will be the next member of MLBTR’s Top 10 to sign a new contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)

Rangers Receiving Trade Interest In Jurickson Profar

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Rangers shortstop Jurickson Profar is drawing “a lot of hits” from teams interested in acquiring the former top prospect, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  Despite all this trade buzz, Texas is “at the moment very much inclined to hold” onto the 22-year-old.

In this respect, not much has changed since early November, when Rangers GM Jon Daniels said “we are not looking to trade” Profar.  The only difference is that the Arizona Fall League season is now complete and teams may have had a fuller chance to scout and analyze Profar’s impressive performance.  He hit .267/.352/.453 with two homers over 91 AFL plate appearances, playing exclusively as a DH as he continues to work his way back from the shoulder injuries that sidelined him for virtually all of the last two seasons, save a handful of minor league games in 2015.

It’s no surprise that Profar continues to generate trade interest given his high pedigree.  Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN’s Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus all unanimously tabbed Profar as the game’s top prospect prior to the 2013 season, and he received his first significant taste of MLB action that year, hitting .234/.308/.336 over 324 PA as a 20-year-old.  It’s still an open question, however, whether or not Profar’s troublesome right shoulder is fit enough to handle throwing.  Since the Rangers aren’t going to accept a buy-low offer, it’s unlikely that any team will make a serious push for Profar until scouts can see him play the field during Spring Training.

Even at the height of his prospect value, Profar still drew a lot of trade speculation given the presence of Elvis Andrus as the Rangers’ everyday shortstop and Rougned Odor also making his way up the minor league ladder.  Andrus still has seven years and $105MM remaining on his pricey extension (though he has opt-out clauses after 2018 and 2019) and Odor established his claim on the second base job with a strong 2015 season, so there’s even more question about where Profar fits into the Rangers’ long-term middle infield plans.

Brewers To Sign Will Middlebrooks To Minor League Deal

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TODAY: Middlebrooks will earn $1.2MM if he makes the Brewers’ Major League roster, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  If he hasn’t reached the majors by July 1, Middlebrooks can be released for a spot on another club’s roster.

TUESDAY: The Brewers have agreed to a minor league pact with third baseman Will Middlebrooks, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. Middlebrooks, 27, was non-tendered by the Padres, who elected to cut bait with the former top prospect rather than pay him an arbitration salary that MLBTR projected at $1.5MM.

Though Middlebrooks opened the year as San Diego’s regular third baseman after coming over via trade, he was not able to regain his once-promising trajectory there. He put up a meager .212/.241/.361 batting line with nine home runs over 270 plate appearances last year. Middlebrooks spent a lengthy stretch at Triple-A, too, and managed only a .255/.287/.379 slash in the favorable offensive climate of the PCL.

Milwaukee has been without a clear option at third after dealing away Aramis Ramirez last summer. The team also recently acquired another former Red Sox prospect in Garin Cecchini, and could let those two (among others) battle for playing time this spring.

AL Central Notes: Frazier, Salazar, Allen, White Sox, Twins

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The Reds spent “at least a month” trying to pry Danny Salazar from the Indians for Todd Frazier with no luck, and were also unsuccessful with their next demand of Cody Allen and prospects for Frazier, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports in his chronicle of the negotiations between the two Ohio clubs.  Cleveland wanted to keep Salazar and Allen in order to contend in 2016 so the Indians were more open to talking about Jose Ramirez and second-tier prospects (Justus Sheffield, Michael Clevinger, Bobby Bradley) with the Reds.  Cincinnati, however, wanted two of those prospects plus one of Clint Frazier or Bradley Zimmer, and the Tribe was unwilling to give up either of its top two minor leaguers.  The Indians attempted to construct a three-way deal to land Frazier from Cincinnati but the Reds instead ended up swinging a three-team trade of their own with the White Sox and Dodgers that sent the third baseman to Chicago.

Here’s more from around the AL Central…

  • Also from Pluto’s piece, he hears the acquisitions of Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli may be the Indians’ last notable moves of the winter.  The club may still make a minor transaction or two but their heavy lifting could be over.
  • The White Sox are monitoring the free agent outfield market and giving up a draft pick to sign a qualifying offer free agent “won’t necessarily be a deal-breaker,” ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required).  Chicago’s first-rounder is protected by virtue of being a top-10 pick, so if they were to sign someone like Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler, the Sox would only sacrifice the extra compensation round pick they recently obtained when Jeff Samardzija left to sign with San Francisco.  As Olney notes, the White Sox are intent on being contenders while cornerstone pieces like Chris Sale and Jose Abreu are on such reasonable contracts.
  • The Twins are looking for a veteran backup outfielder, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes.  This player would essentially replace Shane Robinson on Minnesota’s roster, serving as an experienced bench piece behind the Twins’ young outfield corps.
  • It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for the World Series champions thus far, though Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star feels the Royals front office has earned the benefit of the doubt given its recent success.  Expecting the Royals to suddenly splurge above their usual payroll limits was unrealistic, Mellinger notes, as the club needs “efficient spending” to remain competitive in both the short- and long-term.  It’s worth noting that the Royals signed Joakim Soria and Chris Young to multi-year contracts and they’ve been at least connected to several major free agents and trade targets (such as Alex Gordon, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gonzalez and Frazier), so K.C. could simply be waiting to strike with another notable move.

Orioles Notes: Cespedes, Davis, Gausman

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Here’s the latest from Camden Yards…

  • The Orioles have engaged Yoenis Cespedes and other “high-end” free agent outfielders in talks, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets.  This interest stems both from the apparent stalemate between Chris Davis and the O’s, and also simply from the fact that so many top outfielders are still available.  It makes sense that Baltimore would check in on other big bats in lieu of an agreement with Davis, though landing the likes of Cespedes could be difficult if the team was indeed only willing to offer a $150MM contract to Davis himself.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected Cespedes and Justin Upton to land deals in the $140MM-$147MM range this winter, though those two represent the top of the market — Alex Gordon, for instance, was projected for a $105MM price tag, while other options like Dexter Fowler or Denard Span are another tier or two down.
  • Since the Orioles have at least shown the willingness to spend top dollar, Olney reports (in his latest subscription-only column) that the team has received quite a few calls from agents.
  • The O’s have been in contact with Scott Boras, Davis’ agent, which the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly interprets as a positive sign even if he doesn’t think there’s necessarily a lot of progress being made.  Connolly also warns fans to not get over-confident about the idea of Davis returning — while the O’s seem to be the only major suitors for the first baseman’s services to date, Boras has a history of waiting to find an unexpected bidder that will match his client’s asking price.
  • Kevin Gausman is “off limits” in trade talks, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes, though teams often ask about the young righty.  Jason Garcia, another right-hander, also drew a lot of interest at the Winter Meetings, as did first baseman Christian Walker and prospects Jomar Reyes, Chance Sisco and Trey Mancini.

Quick Hits: Unsigned Free Agents, Opt-Outs

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There’s already buzz about what could be a brilliant 2018-19 free agent class, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes. That year’s market could include Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, Dallas Keuchel, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey and Manny Machado. Also, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Jason Heyward will have opt-out clauses. Of course, some of that first group of players could sign extensions, and there’s no telling if they’ll be as valuable then as they are now, but that looks like a stunning amount of talent. Harper notes that many of the Yankees’ bigger contracts will have expired by then, and he quotes an executive suggesting the Yanks could potentially use the intervening years to get under the luxury tax threshold and throw their weight around in 2018-19. Here’s more from around baseball.

  • A number of key free agents remain unsigned, and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal cites a number of reasons why. The qualifying offer is one factor, but another is that some traditionally free-spending teams (including the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers and Rangers) have not spent heavily. The trade market is another element, particularly on the outfield and starting pitching markets. Of course, top free agents like Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton are highly unlikely to remain unsigned in a couple months, and Rosenthal points out that, for example, Max Scherzer and James Shields signed fairly late in last winter’s offseason. But he also proposes a couple of outside-the-box ideas to get unexpected teams involved in the market, including teams with protected draft picks signing top free agents and then trading them to teams without protected picks, thus somewhat circumventing the qualifying offer system.
  • Opt-out clauses have become increasingly trendy in contracts for top free agents, notes Jamal Collier of Sports On Earth. Price’s contract contains an opt-out after 2018, and Heyward’s allows him to opt out that year or (under certain circumstances) after 2019. Johnny Cueto’s deal allows him to opt out after two years.  Zack Greinke, of course, entered free agency after exercising an opt-out in his previous deal. Most players who have received out clauses in recent years (including Greinke, Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, and several others) have exercised them, reflecting the degree to which revenues have grown within baseball.

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