Rangers Make Qualifying Offer To Yovani Gallardo
They waited until the last minute to pull the trigger, but the Rangers have officially announced that the club made a qualifying offer to righty Yovani Gallardo. Ultimately, GM Jon Daniels called it a “fairly easy” decision to make the one-year, $15.8MM offer.
The veteran hurler was acquired last winter from the Brewers in exchange for a trio of young players: infielder Luis Sardinas and righties Corey Knebel and Marcos Diplan. He delivered a solid season to Texas at a reasonable $14MM salary ($4MM of which was covered by Milwaukee).
Gallardo is hardly an overwhelming pitcher. His heater clocks in at a below-average velocity, and last year he generated less than six strikeouts per nine this season (while walking more than three batters per regulation game).
But he has provided a lot of solid innings, and that has plenty of value in today’s market. The 29-year-old is not exactly a sure thing to go over 200 frames annually — a feat that he’s accomplished twice, in 2011-12 — but he has made thirty or more starts in each of the last seven seasons.
While Gallardo has rarely been dominant, he does carry a lifetime 3.66 ERA. And he’s posted consecutive earned run averages of 3.51 and 3.42 over the last two seasons. ERA estimators have never quite supported those results — this year, for instance, he carried a 4.59 SIERA — but he’d still be a useful piece with some regression baked into expectations.
Padres To Make Qualifying Offer To Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton
NOV. 6, 4:07pm: It more or less goes without saying, but Justin Upton will also get a QO, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets.
11:35am: The Padres are indeed planning to make the qualifying offer to Kennedy, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
NOV. 4: The Padres are leaning toward extending a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to free-agent right-hander Ian Kennedy, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. An official decision won’t be announced until shortly before the 5pm ET deadline for qualifying offers this Friday, but Lin calls a QO a “likely” outcome for Kennedy.
Previous reports have indicated that the Padres weren’t 100 percent set on the offer. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports noted in mid-October that Padres people were considering making one, but rival executives remained skeptical.
From our vantage point at MLBTR, Kennedy’s a natural qualifying offer candidate on the heels of a solid season. While he logged an alarming 7.15 ERA through the season’s first two months, Kennedy rebounded with a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 137-to-38 K/BB ratio over his final 129 1/3 innings of the season, leaving him with a 4.28 ERA in 168 1/3 innings on the season. Dating back to 2011, Kennedy ranks 14th of 278 qualified starters with 1175 innings, topping the marks of free-agent peers such as Yovani Gallardo and Mike Leake.
Kennedy figures to reject the qualifying offer in favor of a multi-year deal, and it seems possible that there’s a four-year pact waiting for him on the open market. A three-year deal would seem to be a virtual certainty for Kennedy from where I sit, although even if the market completely collapsed on him, he’d still be able to find a one-year deal worth more than $10MM, as Ervin Santana did prior to the 2014 season with the Braves.
Denard Span, Doug Fister Will Not Receive Qualifying Offers
The Nationals announced that the club has made qualifying offers to righty Jordan Zimmermann and shortstop Ian Desmond, but did not issue an offer to center fielder Denard Span or to righty Doug Fister. (Via James Wagner of the Washington Post, on Twitter.) At one time, all four players had seemed like strong candidates to receive QOs, though only Span was on the bubble as the decision neared.
As things stand, then, the Nats will only pick up two extra draft picks this winter — assuming, as is expected, that Zimmermann and Desmond reject the offer and sign elsewhere. It’s too soon to rule out a return for either with any degree of certainty, but all signs have pointed toward new destinations. Washington reportedly attempted to work out extensions with both players a few winters back, but talks never progressed.
It is at least marginally surprising to hear that the club won’t issue an offer to Span, who has been a key cog at the top of the Nats lineup since coming to D.C. via trade three years ago. But he’s entering his age-32 season after missing both the start and the end of the season due to separate core muscle surgeries.
Washington could have chosen to roll the dice with the offer, making it with expectations that Span would decline. After all, returning on a one-year deal — possibly with reduced playing time, given the presence of Michael Taylor in center — might not have held much appeal to the veteran. And the downside wouldn’t have been terrible, given that Span would make a nice fit and wouldn’t be overwhelmingly expensive. But the front office apparently decided that some combination of the team’s needs, Span’s health, and the cost were not worth the risk.
As for Fister, who’s also headed for his age-32 campaign, 2015 was a season to forget. He did end up with a palatable-enough 4.19 ERA over 103 innings, but he lost his rotation spot and only ended up making 15 starts. Fister figures to be a popular bounceback option on this year’s free agent market.
Diamondbacks Outright Jhoulys Chacin
The Diamondbacks have outrighted right-handed starter Jhoulys Chacin, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Chacin has cleared waivers and elected free agency.
There had been rumblings that the team would retain Chacin, with chief baseball officer Tony La Russa saying that he had “seen enough” to know that the righty would be “in the competition” for the team’s 2016 rotation. But a projected $1.8MM arbitration tab apparently proved too rich, leading to today’s move.
It’s always possible that Arizona could seek a reunion on the open market. But Chacin will also have a chance to consider other possible homes. He only recorded 26 2/3 innings in the majors last year, but allowed only ten earned runs and ten walks (against 21 strikeouts) in that span. He also put up good results at Triple-A. It’s worth remembering, too, that Chacin tossed nearly 200 innings of 3.47 ERA ball — while pitching half his games at Coors Field — in the not-so-distant 2013 campaign.
Players To Receive Qualifying Offers
The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.
The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.
All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…
- The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
- The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.
Earlier Updates
- Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
- The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
- The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
- As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.
Astros Make Qualifying Offer To Colby Rasmus
The Astros have announced that they made a qualifying offer to outfielder Colby Rasmus. The 29-year-old will have a week to decide whether to take the one-year, $15.8MM offer or instead hit the open market with draft compensation weighing him down.
Rasmus joined Houston on a one-year, $8MM pact last winter and obviously boosted his stock over the course of the season. Working in a semi-regular capacity, he slashed .238/.314/.475 with 25 home runs over 485 plate appearances.
Truth be told, Rasmus wasn’t that bad in 2014 with the Blue Jays. Though his on-base percentage fell below .300, he still contributed plenty of pop and carried an above-average overall batting line. A three-year look-back on Rasmus reveals a cumulative 116 OPS+ and 65 long balls spread over 1,319 plate appearances.
Better still, Rasmus seemingly remains young and mobile enough to play center field. He rated as a roughly average player there after posting poor metrics in an injury-plagued 2014. And both Defensive Runs Saved and UZR felt that Rasmus played a capable left and right field, adding to his versatility.
All told, that blend of youth, power, and defensive capability makes Rasmus seem like a good bet to receive a three or four-year deal as a free agent. (And it doesn’t hurt that he had a monster post-season run.) If the takes that route, though, the need for a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick could hurt his market. It’s certainly possible to imagine him (and other mid-tier free agents) landing with clubs that have already punted their top pick for a bigger fish.
David Freese Will Not Receive Qualifying Offer
The Angels announced that they will not extend a qualifying offer to any of their free agents, meaning third baseman David Freese will hit the open market without the burden of draft pick compensation attached to his name. The Halos had reportedly been considering a QO for the 32-year-old Freese, who is eligible to hit the open market for the first time in his career this winter.
Freese batted .257/.323/.420 and certainly stands a chance at receiving a multi-year deal this winter — a chance that is, of course, now heightened by the lack of a QO. Freese will be the top free agent third baseman available, unless clubs consider Daniel Murphy an everyday option at the hot corner. While he’s neither an elite bat nor a standout defender at third base, he’s posted a batting line that is roughly league-average or better in each season of his big league career and grades out as a solid, albeit unspectacular defender at third per Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved.
MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed the possibility of a Freese QO on our qualifying-offer-themed podcast last week, noting that the team could conceivably go either way. In a vacuum, Freese at one year and $15.8MM isn’t too bad an outcome (in the event that he should accept), as he’s a reasonably good bet to check in worth somewhere around two wins above replacement (give or take a small fraction of a win) in a given season.
However, the tipping point could perhaps have been the team’s proximity to the luxury tax threshold. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register recently noted that the team is roughly $26MM south of that mark, and adding Freese at nearly $16MM would hamstring their flexibility to make further moves this offseason. That’s problematic, as the team has holes in left field, at third base, at second base and behind the plate. It’s possible that the Angels will be able to work out a two- or even three-year deal with Freese at an annual rate that is considerably lower than the $15.8MM value of the qualifying offer, with the AAV and the length of the deal being inversely proportional to one another.
Angels Decline Option On David DeJesus
The Angels announced that they have declined their $5MM club option on outfielder David DeJesus. He’ll receive a $1MM buyout instead and hit the open market this winter in search of a new team.
DeJesus, 35, was one of three veteran corner outfielders acquired by Los Angeles at the trade deadline, all of whom are heading out onto the open market. Shane Victorino became a free agent with the expiration of his contract, and now both DeJesus and David Murphy have seen their options declined.
It wasn’t exactly a banner year for DeJesus, who ultimately slashed just .233/.297/.330 over 317 plate appearances. His production trailed off after his move out west, and he only received sixty turns with the bat while with the Halos.
Of course, DeJesus has been a rather productive player for the last decade or so, and managed a 115 OPS+ in 2014. He will certainly draw interest, though the market for sub-premium, left-handed-hitting outfielders also includes the above-noted Murphy as well as players such as Alejandro De Aza and Nori Aoki.
Cubs Claim Ryan Cook From Red Sox
The Cubs have claimed right-hander Ryan Cook off waivers from the Red Sox, the team told reporters, including MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat (Twitter link). Cook leaves Boston as he came, via the wire; the club nabbed him late this season from the A’s.
It’s been a rather stunning fall for the 28-year-old righty, who compiled 190 2/3 innings of 2.60 ERA pitching between 2012 and 2014. He struck out 9.3 and walked 3.5 batters per nine in that span, with a groundball rate hovering just above 45%.
The 2015 season was more or less a disaster for Cook, however, after shoulder difficulties delayed his start. Cook ultimately threw only 8 2/3 innings in the majors, allowing a stunning 18 earned runs on seven walks (against just four strikeouts). And he was far from his dominant self at the Triple-A level, though he managed better numbers at that level in a short stint at the end of the season with Pawtucket.
Dodgers To Make Qualifying Offers To Anderson, Kendrick, Greinke
The Dodgers will make the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to left-hander Brett Anderson, second baseman Howie Kendrick and right-hander Zack Greinke, reports Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles (via Twitter).
Greinke was among the easiest calls for qualifying offers, as the potential NL Cy Young winner is likely to more than double the $71MM that remained on his contract at the time he opted out. Kendrick was a bit less likely, but considering the number of clubs that could look at him as a second base option this winter, a lucrative multi-year deal was likely enough to call the decision widely expected.
Anderson, though, was on the fringes of the potential QO market. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported last month that the plan was to extend him the QO despite his spotty track record of health, and he’ll now be faced with the tough decision of whether to try for the security of a multi-year deal on the open market or the immediate benefit of a $15.8MM salary.
Anderson has youth on his side but threw just over 200 innings combined in the four seasons prior to his most recent 180-inning campaign with the Dodgers. Formerly a top prospect and one of the most promising young arms in baseball, Anderson’s career has been throttled by injuries that have kept him from taking the mound with anything resembling regularity. That changed in 2015, and he led the Majors with a ground-ball rate north of 66 percent when he was finally healthy enough to stick on the field for a full year. He doesn’t miss many bats, but teams in smaller parks or teams that highly value ground-balls will be intrigued by the upside still present in Anderson’s 27-year-old arm.