East Notes: Bogaerts, Parra, Howard, Samuel
22-year-old Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts has emerged as a quality big leaguer this year, and that often means that it’s time to wonder whether and when extension talks will begin. While agent Scott Boras isn’t known for deals that keep his players off the open market, he tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he is always willing to listen, even for a player with Bogaerts’ pedigree. Boras, who recently met with Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski regarding several current Sox clients, explained: “Look, I always tell every team and every player, we’re an open door. Anything they want to look at and offer, and then the player just has to make his judgments, so we evaluate that.” He praised the organization for its work in helping Bogaerts make an impressive leap this year, though his (justifiably) high opinion of the young infielder also suggests that the price tag would be high. Bogaerts has slashed .325/.356/.429, with seven home runs and ten steals, over 602 plate appearances on the season and will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after 2016.
Here are some more links from around the game’s eastern divisions:
- The Nationals have pursued Orioles outfielder Gerardo Parra previously, including at this year’s trade deadline, and could make a run at him in free agency, James Wagner of the Washington Post writes. Washington ultimately lost the veteran to Baltimore, in part because the Nats wanted the Brewers to help cover his salary. But the team has a potential need for a left-handed-hitting outfielder who could spend time in center field, Wagner notes, and that could make Parra an offseason target. (For what it’s worth, I agree that Parra could be a good fit in D.C., though as I wrote recently, he might well command a significant contract this winter.) From his perspective, Parra says he is pleased to be with the O’s at present but noted that he maintains a high level of respect for Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo and manager Matt Williams, both of whom he knows from his days with the Diamondbacks.
- Phillies president Andy MacPhail says that he expects slugger Ryan Howard to be with the team next spring, as Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Despite trading other former core pieces, the club has yet to find a willing taker for enough of the aging slugger’s remaining $35MM in obligations to make a deal. “I don’t know what’s going to happen over the course of the winter, what opportunities may be available for us and for him,” said MacPhail. He continued to add: “But right now, he’s somebody that I think we have a vested interest in getting back healthy and getting him to Clearwater and getting that bat in our lineup that we don’t have without him.”
- The Phillies interviewed first base coach Juan Samuel as a managerial candidate before deciding to name Pete Mackanin the permanent skipper, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. While Samuel says he’s more than open to returning to Philadelphia in a coaching capacity, Samuel indicated that he’d like to explore the possibility of finding a job running a club. “I’ve been cautious not trying to put my name out there because I just don’t want to [interview] for the sake of doing it,” he said. “If I feel like I have a shot and I think I could be the right guy then, of course, I would do it. I also think that I’m capable of doing it, I’m prepared and I’m ready to do it. I got a taste of it in Baltimore and I enjoyed it. It’s something that is my ultimate goal. Before I hang it up, I would like to get a shot, whether it’s here or somewhere else.”
Quick Hits: GMs, Data, Prospects
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick takes an interesting look at the changing general managerial landscape around the league. The Brewers just hired thirty-year-old David Stearns to take the helm, of course, and Crasnick notes that several other young, analytically-minded executives are in the hunt for other GM positions. As he explains, however, there is more nuance both to the more youthful newcomers and the more established GM candidates on the market. While there is a cyclical element to front office hiring, says Crasnick, it’s also true that the job has changed significantly, with baseball operations departments growing in size and diversity of functions. Then, there’s the fact that team ownership is increasingly savvy and data-driven as the amount of money involved has skyrocketed. (Crasnick quotes one executive who notes that many owners are very hands-on: “They’ll see something on the MLB Trade Rumors site and call you and say, ‘Why didn’t we know about this?'”) You’ll want to give the piece a full read.
Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:
- While the use of data in baseball is a given at this point, that doesn’t mean it isn’t continuing to evolve. Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal sat down recently with two key figures in analytics, A’s GM Billy Beane and noted sabermetrician Bill James, for a compelling chat. Both agreed that, while teams often work on fascinating projects behind closed doors, the analytical work done in the public realm still offers the greatest capacity for knowledge advancement because it is subject to broad scrutiny and capable of being built up from a gathering of many minds. Of course, as Beane notes, an increasing number of the people who might once have written in public fora are now employed by teams.
- If you feel it’s been too long since the last exciting new Cuban player popped up on the radar, then check out this piece from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. He highlights a 16-year-old known as Lazarito — full name: Lazaro Robersy Armenteros Arango — who has impressive skills and a rising profile. Lazarito is currently in Haiti, where he’s preparing to showcase his talents and continuing the process of achieving free agency. While he still has a lot to prove, Lazarito already stands out in one regard: he’s much younger than most Cuban prospects that are attempting to move into MLB organizations.
- Baseball America is running through the top prospects in each of the minor leagues. It’s an ongoing process, but now would be a good time to take a peek if you’re interested in seeing how recent draft picks and rising international youngsters are progressing, as BA is most of the way through its Rookie ball ratings. Among the players placing highly are Brewers prospects Trent Clark and Gilbert Lara, Brendan Rodgers of the Rockies, and Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Indians Designate Tyler Holt For Assignment
The Indians have designated outfielder Tyler Holt for assignment, according to a club announcement. His 40-man spot was needed for catcher Adam Moore, whose contract was purchased from Triple-A.
Holt, 26, has struggled in fairly minimal major league time over the past two years. In 703 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, though, he has put up an interesting .304/.398/.382 slash line. As that would suggest, Holt doesn’t have much pop — he has just six career MiLB home runs. But he does offer some speed, and has swiped 45 bags in the highest level of the minors.
As for the 31-year-old Moore, who signed as a minor league free agent, this will represent his sixth consecutive season with at least some time on a MLB active roster. He has less than 300 plate appearances over that span, however, without much production. In his 355 trips to the plate this year at Columbus, Moore owns a .282/.328/.397 slash with six home runs.
Poll: Valuing A Bryce Harper Extension
In this week’s MLBTR Mailbag, Steve Adams opined that it might take a 13-year, $375MM offer — or more — for the Nationals to make a serious run at extending outfielder Bryce Harper. That number factors in an estimated $36MM over two seasons of arbitration eligibility (2017-18) and then eleven more years at a $31MM AAV. A contract of that magnitude would be enough to best Giancarlo Stanton‘s 13-year, $325MM deal (which also included a significant opt-out provision).
That’s an immense amount of cash, but Harper is about to cap a 10 WAR season at just 22 years of age. The Scott Boras client will hit the open market before he turns 26 years of age, and would have more or less unprecedented earning capacity if he maintains anything approaching his current level of production.
To put things in some perspective, in addition to the Stanton deal, consider the Tigers’ extension of Miguel Cabrera. At the time, Cabrera was set to enter his age-31 season after a huge 2013 campaign that capped a sustained run of excellence at the plate. He was already controlled for two years and $44MM, but the club added another eight seasons and $248MM on top of that (along with two vesting options at $30MM a pop). The AAV of the extension is $31MM, the same amount that Steve theorized for Harper.
While there’s no indication that Harper and the Nats are talking, or have plans to do so, it’s interesting to consider what it might take to get something done. It’s conceivable, of course, that the parties could consider a different type of deal — Mike Trout‘s six-year, $144.5MM extension provides another model altogether — but a maximum value scenario seems more plausible.
Adding eleven free agent seasons at a $20MM average annual value would push Harper past $250MM. At $24MM annually, the total guarantee would be an even $300MM. Or, if you think that Steve is light, and Harper could take down $35MM a year over his free-agent-eligible campaigns, we’d be staring at a $421MM tab.
Assuming the scenario that Steve proposed — two arb years plus eleven more — what kind of cash do you think would be fair and adequate compensation to get a 13-year deal done? Remember, you can discuss in the comments or join the debate over on Instagram.
How Much Is Harper Worth?
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in the neighborhood of $375MM 35% (3,219)
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between Cabrera and Stanton ($250MM to $325MM) 29% (2,615)
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well over $400MM 19% (1,690)
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less than Miggy (south of $250MM) 18% (1,597)
Total votes: 9,121
Tigers Send Bruce Rondon Home Due To “Effort Level”
Bruce Rondon‘s 2015 season is over, but the hard-throwing reliever isn’t injured and hasn’t hit an innings cap. Rather, the Tigers told reporters, including MLive.com’s Chris Iott, that Rondon has been sent home due to his “effort level.” Said manager Brad Ausmus:
“Bruce Rondon, because of his effort level, has been sent home. Other than saying that [general manager] Al Avila and myself completely agreed on it, there will be no other details or comment.”
As Iott notes, the Tigers apparently feel that while embarrassing in nature, a move of this magnitude is the best way to send a message to Rondon, who struggled in 2015 as he returned from Tommy John surgery, though some teammates feel his struggles are attributable to a lack of work. One anonymous Triple-A teammate told Iott that Rondon’s work ethic “definitely has room for improvement.” Tigers bullpen-mate Alex Wilson offered a more harsh, on-record take when speaking to the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky:
“It’s kind of an unwritten rule, you never quit on your teammates, and when you quit on yourself, you kind of quit on your teammates. From a clubhouse standpoint, it’s probably better to let him go on home and try to figure things out a little bit. Hopefully, he comes back next year with a new mindset and attitude.”
Certainly, this isn’t the manner in which Rondon wanted his season to end. Armed with a triple-digit fastball, the now-24-year-old was tabbed as the heir-apparent to the ninth inning in 2013. He struggled early in his first three appearances but came back strong after a late-June promotion, pitching to a 2.73 ERA with a 29-to-9 K/BB ratio in 26 1/3 innings while setting up for Joaquin Benoit. Rondon, though, suffered a torn UCL in his right elbow the following spring and missed all of the 2014 season.
His return in 2015 was slowed by a case of biceps tendinitis which Iott says took an “inordinate” amount of time to heal. Rondon didn’t throw a pitch at the Triple-A level until May 21, and he struggled both there and in the Majors this season, posting a 7.11 ERA in 12 2/3 Triple-A innings and a 5.81 mark in 31 innings at the big league level. McCosky notes that Rondon’s fastball was sitting in the 93 to 96 mph range in his final few outings this season, but the righty told Ausmus and Avila that he felt fine and had merely cut back on his velocity in an effort to improve his control. The manager and pitching coach Jeff Jones advised against that, per McCosky, but Rondon again sat at 93 mph in his next appearance. McCosky describes Rondon’s late-season demeanor as “uncharacteristically surly,” noting that he refused to speak to the media.
Rondon clearly has plenty of upside; he posted an ERA well below 2.00 across three levels and averaged 11+ strikeouts per nine innings in the minors from 2012-13. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rated him as a Top 100 prospect entering the 2013 campaign. But Rondon has yet to deliver on that promise, and while a serious injury is unequivocally a factor in his lack of development, team decision-makers and teammates clearly feel there’s more at play. While neither Iott or McCosky mentions the possibility that the organization will move on from Rondon this winter, this type of public airing of grievances could conceivably create a rift between team and player.
Rondon will have two-plus years of service time under his belt this offseason but will fall well shy of Super Two distinction. He won’t be arbitration eligible until at least the 2016-17 offseason and is under team control through at least 2019 at this point.
AL East Notes: Donaldson, Boxberger, Karns
The Blue Jays acquisition of Josh Donaldson last offseason has been said to be due to the dogged persistence of Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post echoes that sentiment, noting that Yankees GM Brian Cashman touched base with Billy Beane regarding Donaldson early last offseason. Cashman, however, was told that Donaldson simply wasn’t available in trades. Anthopolous, though, continued his pursuit despite being told the same. “Alex is and was certainly relentless,” Athletics assistant GM David Forst told Sherman. “That is his personality. But we didn’t trade Josh to make Alex go away.” Forst adds that the A’s had a list of Blue Jays players they had strong interest in, and eventually the Jays offered enough from that list to make them cave. Donaldson’s MVP-caliber season notwithstanding, Forst said the A’s still believe the players they got in the deal have bright futures that will even out the transaction in the future. Sherman notes that Franklin Barreto — who is ranked among the game’s top 50 prospects or so — and Kendall Graveman held particular appeal to the A’s.
Here’s more from the AL East…
- Brad Boxberger‘s recent comments about potential overuse from the Rays sparked some controversy, but agent Scott Boras tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he believes Boxberger is a good fit for the Rays and will benefit from a more defined role in the future. “[Manager Kevin] Cash has given him an opportunity and he’s taken advantage of it and become an All-Star, and when you have things like that happen for a young player, you’re in a good place,” said Boras. The agent, however, acknowledged that the Rays may eventually struggle to keep Boxberger for financial reasons — a comment that is less a reflection on Boras’ reputation than it is of the Rays’ well-documented payroll constraints. Boxberger has saved 36 games this season, and a full 2016 season as the Rays’ closer would set him up for a hefty payday in 2016 which could soar by 2017. Comparatively, Greg Holland received $4.675MM for his first arb-eligible season in 2014 with just 67 career saves under his belt. That figure jumped to $8.25MM in 2015. Boxberger has already saved 39 games in his career and offers similarly high strikeout numbers, albeit with a higher ERA as well.
- Also from Topkin, the Rays are shutting down Nate Karns for the remainder of the season due to tightness in his right forearm. Karns and Cash both feel that the issue isn’t serious in nature, and Karns added that at a different point in the season he might’ve pitched through the pain. With Tampa Bay having fallen out of playoff contention, though, it makes sense for Karns to focus on his health. Rookie catcher Curt Casali may also see his season shut down, Topkin notes, due to a lingering hamstring injury.
Yogi Berra Passes Away
It’s a sad day in the game of baseball, as reports late last night surfaced that one of the game’s all-time great players and personalities, Yogi Berra, has passed away. The Hall of Famer, three-time MVP and 10-time World Series Champion was 90 years old.
Berra spent parts of 19 seasons in the Major Leagues, debuting at 21 years of age in 1946 and would don Yankee pinstripes each season through 1963, also making a brief, four-game appearance with the Mets in 1965. An excellent defensive catcher (and eventually a plus defender in the outfield as well), Berra caught 49 percent of the baserunners that attempted to steal against him in his career and compiled a brilliant .285/.348/.482 batting line in 8359 big league plate appearances. He retired with 358 home runs, 1175 runs scored, 1430 RBIs and 704 walks against a minuscule 414 strikeouts in his career. Strikeouts, of course, were less common in that era than in today’s game, but Berra’s knack for putting the ball in play was nonetheless remarkable; he struck out just 12 times in 656 trips to the plate in 1950 and five times completed a season with more home runs than punchouts.
Berra would earn MVP honors in the 1951, 1954 and 1955 seasons, and he finished in the Top 5 of the award’s voting on five other occasions. He batted .274/.359/.452 in his illustrious postseason career, all of which contributed to the Yankees’ decision to retire his No. 8 alongside the rest of the legends of the franchise.
Following his playing career, Berra returned to the game as a manager, spending parts of seven seasons guiding both the Yankees and Mets. Though he finished with an overall record that was four games south of .500, Berra captured a pennant with each franchise, winning the AL pennant with the Yankees in 1964 and the NL pennant with the Mets in 1973.
Despite all of the aforementioned accolades, though, Berra is equally, if not more revered due to his affable nature and paradoxically quotable nature. Berra was a font of quotes throughout his career — the New York Post has compiled 35 of his most memorable “Yogi-isms” in tribute to the Yankee icon — responsible for now-classic sayings such as, “It ain’t over till it’s over,” “Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical,” “It’s deja vu all over again,” and “You can observe a lot by watching.”
Berra served as an inspiration to multiple generations of fans and players alike, and he’ll be remembered as one of the game’s true treasures. Though the game will never see another character quite like Berra, he leaves behind a wealth of irreplaceable memories that will ensure his presence remains ingrained in the very fabric of the game for generations to come. We at MLBTR join those in mourning his passing and offer our condolences to his three sons, the rest of his family and friends as well as the countless people whose lives were impacted and bettered by one of the game’s all-time great personalities.
Phillies Notes: GM Search, Offseason, Howard, Mackanin
The Phillies have officially begun their GM search, as Andy MacPhail told reporters, including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, that they’ve interviewed one candidate. MacPhail, unsurprisingly, declined to specify the candidate in question, though he said the goal is still to have a new GM in place by the team’s organizational meetings, which begin on Oct. 26.
A few more notes on the Phils…
- Via Zolecki, MacPhail also said the Phillies aren’t likely to spend on top-tier free agents this winter, though he didn’t completely shut the door. “[D]o you really want to commit after you’ve just been in that pool and suffered from it?” MacPhail asked rhetorically. “Do you really want to commit at this stage? The only caveat I give you is that if there’s a unique opportunity out there, I wouldn’t want to preclude it from happening … particularly when you consider that once we get to ’17 we are really pretty footloose and fancy free.” The Phillies have no contracts guaranteed beyond the 2017 season.
- That, of course, doesn’t mean the Phillies will sit on their hands. Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News was also on hand and offers additional quotes from MacPhail, who does believe the Phillies “absolutely” feel a need to be active, just not necessarily on top-of-the-market names. The veteran exec made it clear that he doesn’t feel obligated to spend simply because this year’s free agent crop of starting pitchers is deep. “I know everyone can say, oh, my God, next year’s class isn’t as good as this year’s class,” said MacPhail. “Let’s see a year from now. And it may come in the form of making a trade. You don’t know. But I think the important thing is to do it when that foundation is there that merits it and supports it.”
- MacPhail also said that he expects Ryan Howard to be with the team in Spring Training next season, per Lawrence. He left open the possibility that an opportunity could present itself which may benefit Howard and the Phillies, but stated that for now, Howard is “somebody we have a vested interest in getting back healthy and getting him to Clearwater.”
- The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jake Kaplan writes that Phillies players are excited by the news that manager Pete Mackanin was extended through the 2016 season. Kaplan offers quotes from a number of young players, including Ken Giles, Jerad Eickhoff, Aaron Nola and Cameron Rupp, who have thoroughly enjoyed playing for Mackanin, whose new contract also contains a club option for the 2017 campaign.
Korean Outfielder Ah-Seop Son Likely To Be Posted This Offseason
Korean outfielder Ah-seop Son plans to enter the posting system this winter in order to jump from the Korea Baseball Organization to Major League Baseball, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. Son, a 27-year-old corner outfielder for KBO’s Lotte Giants, is being represented by agent Rick Thurman of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, per Passan.
The left-handed-hitting Son has batted .324/.412/.476 with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 476 plate appearances this season, walking at a 13 percent clip while striking out in 19.5 percent of his plate appearances. Son has batted .306 or better for the past six seasons in KBO, posting a cumulative batting line of .330/.405/.471 that closely mirrors his overall production from the 2015 campaign.
Son will look to follow in the footsteps of Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang, whose four-year, $11MM contract and $5MM posting fee have proved to be perhaps this past offseason’s greatest bargain. Of course, it’s somewhat understandable that interest in Kang was mixed, as he’s the first position player to make the jump from KBO to MLB. Many questioned whether or not his prodigious power would translate to the Majors or if it was simply a product of the KBO’s notoriously hitter-friendly league. While Kang’s power didn’t necessarily translate, he has, as Passan notes, certainly performed well enough that clubs may be less wary of taking on hitters from Korea’s top professional league.
Korean players are subject to the traditional posting system in which all 30 clubs must submit blind bids, with the team that submits the highest amount being given a 30-day window to then negotiate a contract. Should the team and Son’s representatives at BHSC fail to reach a deal, the posting fee would be returned to the MLB team that submitted the winning bid, and Son would return to KBO.
If a team is unable to work out a deal with Son, however, he could still find himself in the Majors eventually. KBO players become unrestricted free agents following their ninth full season, after which they’re free to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs. For Son, that would come after the 2017 season. Though he’s technically appeared in parts of nine pro seasons, he didn’t earn enough service time in his first few years to become eligible until after 2017.
Marlins Have Interviewed Manny Acta, Had Discussions With Dusty Baker
5:29pm: In addition to Acta, former Reds/Cubs/Giants manager Dusty Baker is a “strong candidate” in the Marlins’ hunt for a manager, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. In a followup tweet, Frisaro reports that the team has “engaged in discussions” with Baker, though he’s unsure specifically when those talks began. In a third tweet, he notes that it’s still not a sure thing that Jennings will return as GM.
5:11pm: It’s been previously reported that Dan Jennings will be asked to relinquish his role as Marlins manager in 2016, and Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes now reports (via Twitter) that the team has interviewed Manny Acta for the position. Interestingly, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports (also via Twitter) that Jennings has been officially notified that he will not return as manager in 2016 despite the fact that he now wants to return to the role. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that when asked, Jennings was unaware of any talks with Acta.
Acta, 46, has served as manager of both the Nationals and Indians, each for parts of three seasons. Acta has a career record of just 372-518 as a big league manager, though he was placed given the reins on clubs that carried low expectations at the time of his hiring. As Jackson further tweets, the Marlins consider the fact that Acta is bilingual to be a factor in their interest.
Reports have indicated that the Marlins have offered Jennings the opportunity to return to the front office this offseason, but it’s unclear exactly how similar his role would be. Assistant GM Mike Berger has assumed a great deal of Jennings’ duties since the change and is said to have the ear of owner Jeffrey Loria. The Marlins have also reassigned one of Jennings’ lieutenants (former VP of player personnel Craig Weissman) and fired another (former pro scout Mickey White). Jennings, in turn, has been linked to other GM openings, most notably the Mariners and Phillies (though the latter of the two was seemingly speculative in nature).