Quick Hits: Walker, Cespedes, Gyorko
The Pirates may say goodbye to second baseman Neil Walker after the season, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittburgh Tribune-Review. He’s set to earn at least $10MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Due to a balky back and the availability of Jung-ho Kang, Jordy Mercer, and Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh may prefer to commit that money to another position. Of course, the Pirates will probably never reach the point of actually non-tendering Walker. Plenty of teams should be interested in a one-year flier on the 30-year-old. Biertempfel offers a fascinating look at Walker who is actually a Pittsburgh native. It’s well worth a read.
- Pittsburgh should actually extend Walker, opines Rob Rossi of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Rossi refers to Walker as a fan favorite and lauds his clubhouse presence. Rossi suggests a four-year, $47MM contract as a reasonable compromise. Of course, the notoriously penurious club does have a wealth of affordable middle infield depth with Kang, Harrison, and Mercer on the roster. Prospect Alen Hanson is also close to major league ready. Presumably, Walker could return a decent player via trade too. While it’s tough to part with a hometown fan favorite, sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
- A hot October could lead Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to his desired six-year contract, writes Mark Townsend of Yahoo. While teams may be concerned about offering a big guarantee through his age 36 season, they may be willing to swallow the risk if they can bank on production early in the contract. Of course, no player is a sure thing to repeat past exploits. Postseason success would certainly go a long way towards assuaging any doubts. I said the same earlier tonight when examining the players who most improved their free agent stock.
- The Padres are pleased with Jedd Gyorko‘s development at shortstop, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. The Friars began the experiment to keep both Cory Spangenberg and Gyorko in the lineup. While there is obviously concern about his defense, his offense easily ranks among the best at the position. Advanced statistics like UZR aren’t a fan of his work, but a one month sample is way too small to form a judgment. He hasn’t committed an error and makes all the routine plays. A NL West scout even suggested that he looks more comfortable at short than second. If the club thinks he can continue to man the position in 2016, it could save them from scrounging through the free agent shortstop market.
Most Improved Free Agent Stock
It may be premature to talk about the most improved free agent stock – after all it’s mid-September. We still have two weeks left in the regular season. More importantly, the playoffs can be a massive boon to October’s top performers. Big numbers on the biggest stage are often parlayed into bigger paydays. For now, let’s just make do with what we know.
When thinking about the players who most improved their stock, there are two angles we can consider. Some players entered the season with sky high expectations. All they had to do was get through the current campaign at a level similar to their career rates to ensure a free agent windfall. David Price and Zack Greinke have outdone themselves and could be in line to earn even more than originally conjectured.
Price, 30, has long been viewed as a reliable left-handed ace. He’s largely matched his terrific 2014 campaign, and he’s turned up the gas since joining the Blue Jays. Prior to the season, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked him as the third best free agent with a chance to reach $200MM. A minor injury or lackluster season could have easily pushed him down closer to $100MM. Dierkes’ most recent update to the power rankings has Price as the top free agent with a realistic chance to exceed Clayton Kershaw‘s seven-year, $215MM pact with the Dodgers. As an added bonus, Price won’t come with a qualifying offer attached since he was traded at the deadline.
While it was clear that 31-year-old Greinke would opt out of his contract with the Dodgers (assuming health), the success he has enjoyed was not wholly expected. Projection systems tabbed Greinke for around a 3.00 ERA this year. Instead, he’s worked to a 1.65 ERA through 30 starts. Home run suppression and a .231 BABIP have helped matters, but his dominance has allowed him to crawl out from under Kershaw’s shadow. Prior to the season, Dierkes thought another typical season from Greinke could get him $100MM in new money. Now he thinks Greinke could exceed Jon Lester‘s six-year, $155MM deal.
Another pair of soon-to-be free agents may have increased their value by nearly nine figures this year. In a monetary sense, these are the clear victors of the most improved stock game. Neither slugger was a consensus top free agent prior to the season, but they’ll certainly be treated like royalty in a few months.
First baseman Chris Davis entered the year as an enigma. After a 53 home run campaign in 2013, Davis followed with a miserable 2014 season. For what it’s worth, I expected 2015 production somewhere around the mid-point between the two platform years. The 29-year-old has definitely exceeded that by a wide margin. Back in February, Dierkes considered Davis as an also-ran for the top 10 free agents list (along with Steve Pearce, Doug Fister, and Mat Latos among others). Now he’s fourth in the power rankings. Dierkes believes a seven-year deal worth more than $140MM is well within reach. I agree.
Right there with Davis is Yoenis Cespedes. Like Davis, he missed Dierkes’ top 10 before the season. Now he’s fifth and in a virtual tie with Davis. Dierkes projects the same seven-year contract of more than $20MM per season for Cespedes. The outfielder will turn 30 in a month and has reached new career heights with 35 home runs. His acquisition by the Mets is a big part of their current success. He’s in a bit of a mini-slump going 0-for-17 over his last four games. A slow end to the season and playoffs could remind buyers of his previous production. Alternatively, a noisy postseason could propel him past Davis.
This all begs the question – who most improved their stock? Is it the star who has all-but-secured a $200MM payday? The aging ace who’ll receive another massive contract? Or is it one of the surging sluggers?
Who Most Improved Their Free Agent Stock
-
Yoenis Cespedes 46% (3,977)
-
Zack Greinke 23% (1,969)
-
Chris Davis 20% (1,693)
-
David Price 11% (944)
Total votes: 8,583
Injury Notes: Tulowitzki, Phegley, Harvey
Here’s the latest injury related notes from around the league:
- Blue Jays shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is making progress in his return from a cracked scapula, writes Jaime Ross of MLB.com. The 30-year-old is still a few days from learning his timeline for return. Initial estimates suggested he’d miss two to three weeks. He originally sustained the injury last Saturday. Tulowitzki reports that he can now lift his arm, but it’s unclear when he can begin baseball activities.
- Athletics catcher Josh Phegley has a concussion, reports Chandler Rome of MLB.com. He sustained the freak injury yesterday during batting practice when a bat clipped the back of his head. Phegley was acquired by Oakland prior to the season as part of the Jeff Samardzija trade.
- Orioles pitching prospect Hunter Harvey has been shut down with elbow discomfort, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. It’s a recurrence of an existing problem for the 20-year-old prospect. The club intends for him to visit Dr. James Andrews before setting a course of action, but the renowned surgeon is currently out of the country. Harvey entered the season as the second ranked prospect in the Orioles farm system per Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs.
Latest On Angels GM Search
We learned earlier today that Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler is the favorite for the Angels GM job via Joel Sherman of the New York Post. However, there is “a lot of internal support” for Angels director of pro scouting Hal Morris, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (tweet 1, 2). Crasnick mentions that owner Arte Moreno could opt to stay in house with a promotion in which case Morris may be the best candidate. I presume assistant GM Matt Klentak may also be an internal candidate, although he is widely connected to the Phillies.
In 2012, Morris was signed to his current position with the Angels. He began scouting in 2008 and played 13 seasons from 1988 to 2000 – mostly with the Reds. At the time Morris was hired, former GM Jerry Dipoto praised Morris’ “abilities in the areas of player evaluation and qualitative analysis.”
As for Eppler, he has been connected with several GM openings dating back to the Padres search last summer. He’s also interviewed with the Mariners and has been mentioned in connection to the Phillies.
Quick Hits: Belt, Mondesi, Padres
Brandon Belt will be out of the Giants‘ lineup for the time being after his second concussion in two seasons, Alex Pavlovic of CSNBayArea.com writes. His current issues stem from a slide against the Reds on Tuesday. He had difficulty concentrating during Friday’s game. “He showed symptoms last night and that’s what we’re treating him for,” says manager Bruce Bochy. Belt also missed about a quarter of last season due to a concussion. Buster Posey will take over for Belt at first base until Belt returns. Here are more quick notes from around the league.
- Manager Ned Yost says the Royals could promote another middle infielder, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both Alcides Escobar and Omar Infante left Friday’s game with injuries. Escobar’s injury was merely a bruise, as Flanagan notes, but Escobar’s injury (an oblique strain) could be more serious. That could mean the promotion of top prospect Raul Mondesi Jr., Flanagan speculates. Mondesi has only hit .240/.279/.372 in 338 plate appearances for Double-A Northwest Arkansas this season, but he’s a strong defensive player and baserunner, so he could potentially be useful to the Royals in those capacities. He also only recently turned 20 and is about four years younger than the average player in the Texas League. In July, Baseball America ranked Mondesi the No. 25 prospect in the game. MLB.com currently ranks him 35th.
- The Padres have a tough task ahead of them this offseason, Jon Heyman says in a video for CBS Sports. They appear likely to lose Justin Upton, who will likely get a large contract elsewhere. Heyman says he hears the Padres will probably extend Ian Kennedy a qualifying offer after a strong second half, and Kennedy will likely refuse it. After a disappointing season, the Padres will have to decide this winter whether to attempt to contend again next year or whether to rebuild, trading players like Craig Kimbrel and Tyson Ross.
Three Needs: Miami Marlins
As the offseason approaches, we continue to outline the potential goals of this season’s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, Reds and Phillies, and the next team in line is the Miami Marlins.
Before the 2015 season, the Marlins had a splashy winter in which they extended Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich and acquired Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Martin Prado, Michael Morse and Ichiro Suzuki, among others. But they suffered through injuries and quickly fired manager Mike Redmond, and now they’re 20 games below .500, in third place only because they’re in a very weak NL East division. Here are a few areas the club could address this offseason.
1. Solidify leadership positions. After dismissing Redmond, the Marlins made the unusual decision of moving GM Dan Jennings to the manager position. The move wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t a rousing success either. This month, the team fired pro scout Mickey White and reassigned vice president of player personnel Craig Weissmann, both of whom were close with Jennings.
Now, the Marlins want to replace Jennings as manager, and although he reportedly has a standing offer to return as GM, it’s unclear whether he’ll want to return, potentially with less power than he once had. The Phillies also reportedly could consider hiring Jennings, and the Mariners might be another possibility. It might be, then, that the Marlins could replace both their manager and their GM this winter (although they could simply promote assistant GM Mike Berger to fill the latter role).
2. Improve the farm system. The Marlins did take a recent step to improve their minor league system by hiring former Pirates special assistant Marc DelPiano to oversee it. Otherwise, it will admittedly take longer than an offseason to address their prospect pipeline.
Still, any upgrades they can make this winter, either by acquiring minor leaguers or by improving their development processes, would help. As Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald noted last week, it’s been an awful year for the Marlins’ minor league system — several of their top affiliates finished in last place, and their system appears to be sorely lacking in impact talent beyond 2014 second overall pick Tyler Kolek (who himself didn’t have a very good season). “[Y]ou go beyond [Kolek], and you get to guys who are not top 200- or 300-type guys,” Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper told Spencer.
Contending in 2016 will probably be a longshot for the Marlins, so one potential option is to be proactive about upgrading their base of young talent this winter. Last offseason, for example, the Braves added Arodys Vizcaino, Tyrell Jenkins, Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, Manny Banuelos, Rio Ruiz and others to their system. The Marlins don’t have the trade chips the Braves did … unless, of course, Miami’s front office is willing to get crazy and trade Stanton, Jose Fernandez or Gordon. (Stanton has a no-trade clause.) If not, they could make smaller trades (dealing someone like Prado and replacing him with Derek Dietrich might make sense) and attempt to add talent in the Rule 5 Draft. As a baseline, they probably shouldn’t trade from the shallow pool of minor league talent they currently have.
3. Develop a long-term plan. The Marlins’ most recent attempts to contend through the acquisitions of veterans have failed — last offseason didn’t work, and the 2011-12 offseason (when they brought in Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell and manager Ozzie Guillen to drum up interest in their new ballpark) didn’t either. Now, they’ll need to decide whether the third time will be the charm, and if not, what path to pursue.
While actually contending is a long shot, some acquisitions of veterans might actually make sense, even if they only might lead to a .500-type season. The Marlins have two franchise talents, Stanton and Fernandez, under control for the long term, and they can reasonably expect better health from both next season. They can also hope for more from talented young outfielders Yelich and Marcell Ozuna (assuming Ozuna returns). Barring a trade, Gordon will be back after a strong season, along with some capable role players, including Prado, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, catcher J.T. Realmuto, and relievers A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps. In fact, there are hints of competence or upside at every position on the diamond (although a bit of additional bench depth would help them).
What the Marlins need most in the short term is starting pitching. Their young starters behind Fernandez didn’t take significant steps forward this season, and the Marlins’ collection of starting pitching now consists of a number of hurlers who look like placeholders (such as Tom Koehler, Brad Hand, Justin Nicolino and Adam Conley) alongside wild cards Jarred Cosart, Jose Urena and the injured Henderson Alvarez. This offseason’s free agent market is rich in pitching, and acquiring a couple starters to bolster the rotation might give the Marlins a chance to be competitive next season.
They probably ought to avoid trades of young players for veteran pitchers, however, unless they come very cheaply. Last offseason’s trades of Nathan Eovaldi to New York (in the Prado deal) and two young players to Cincinnati (in the Latos deal) were arguably small mistakes that the Marlins shouldn’t repeat. Regardless of their offseason moves, it would be very surprising if they won, say, 90 games in 2016. So the long term needs to be their top priority. Their most obvious route to long-term success is to build around Stanton and Fernandez, but they could also potentially consider the less obvious route of trading them. Either way, they appear to have a long swim ahead, one that might be tough to navigate for notoriously impatient owner Jeffrey Loria.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Stanton, Castro, Samardzija
Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video on FOX Sports.
- Rosenthal suggests that Bryce Harper‘s recent praise for manager Matt Williams could be a genuine expression of support that could help dissuade the Nationals from firing Williams, or it could be a “politically savvy” move to bolster his own reputation as a team player by offering praise for a manager he thinks will eventually be fired anyway.
- The downside of Giancarlo Stanton‘s long-term deal was that he committed to be with a questionably run Marlins organization for at least six years. Rosenthal notes, though, that 2015 hasn’t been the first season in which Stanton has struggled to stay healthy — he has only averaged 118 games played per season for his career. In signing a long-term deal, Stanton reduced the risk that injuries could limit his career earnings.
- The Cubs have plenty of talented infielders and could still trade Starlin Castro, who has improved his stock by hitting well since the beginning of August and capably handling a new position, second base. Now, the Cubs can market him either as a shortstop or as a second baseman.
- Jeff Samardzija hasn’t pitched well for the White Sox, but his health record is pristine, with one executive says the health of his right arm is “right out of the womb.” The Yankees or Pirates could be good fits for Samardzija, Rosenthal suggests, given their recent successes at helping struggling but talented pitchers. Samardzija might do surprisingly well on the market this winter, Rosenthal says.
Quick Hits: Montreal, Phillies, Braves, Moylan
In early April, the Blue Jays will play exhibition games at Olympic Stadium in Montreal for the third straight year, as Ainsley Doty of SportsNet writes. The Jays and Red Sox will play there April 1 and 2, just before the start of the regular season. The exhibitions will likely warm the hearts of fans longing for baseball to return to Montreal on a more permanent basis. “It is clearly a strong message that major teams from Major League Baseball want to come to Montreal,” says Montreal mayor Denis Coderre. “Of course, we keep the flame on. Montreal is a serious contender to get back the Expos one day.” Here are more quick notes from around the game.
- There are plenty of teams with at least a mathematical chance of winning (or “winning”) the first pick in the 2016 draft, but right now the Phillies hold a two-game “lead” over the Braves, as Vince Lara-Cinosomo of Baseball America notes. Both teams already have solid farm systems thanks in part to their recent rebuilding efforts. The next top Phillies draft signing will join a system topped by J.P. Crawford and recent trade acquisitions Jake Thompson, Nick Williams and Jorge Alfaro. The Braves’ system is topped by Curacaoan infielder Ozhaino Albies, along with top 2015 pick Kolby Allard and a host of players acquired in recent trades.
- After righty Peter Moylan had his second Tommy John surgery last year, the Braves signed him to a two-year minor-league deal with the idea that he would spend at least part of this season coaching pitchers at the Braves’ Appalachian League affiliate in Danville. Instead, he never went to Danville and pitched in the big leagues instead, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution writes. Moylan made his season minor-league debut with Triple-A Gwinnett in late May, got promoted to the big leagues in August and has now been in the Majors for more than a month. Now the 36-year-old is looking forward to continuing his progress in 2016. “I got a cup of coffee with L.A. in 2013, but I wasn’t ever really comfortable with how I was throwing,” says Moylan. “Coming back here, it’s sort of given me a chance to look at video of what I was doing back in the day, and go back to that. Now hopefully I can continue that, maintain that and then roll through next year.”
AL Notes: Martin, Twins, Eppler
Former Rays shortstop prospect Brandon Martin has been arrested in the shooting deaths of two men, including his father, Ali Tadayon of the Press-Enterprise writes (via Cork Gaines of Rays Index). Two men were found dead Thursday, and another, Martin’s uncle, was badly injured. Officers apprehended Martin after a chase Friday. Martin was the 38th overall pick in the 2011 draft, but he struggled in the minors — he received good reviews for his defense but batted .211/.281/.371 in parts of three seasons from 2011 through 2013. The Rays technically released Martin this spring, although Baseball America’s Matt Eddy noted at the time that Martin retired before the 2014 season. Here’s more from the American League.
- Of the 15 remaining active Major Leaguers who were drafted in 1997 or earlier, four (LaTroy Hawkins, Torii Hunter, A.J. Pierzynski and Michael Cuddyer) were selected by the Twins, Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out. That doesn’t include Kyle Lohse, who was drafted in 1996 by the Cubs but played his first several big-league seasons with Minnesota.
- Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler has an edge as a candidate for the Angels GM job, Sherman writes. The Angels liked him in 2011, when he was a candidate for the GM position before it eventually went to Jerry Dipoto. “There is a strong sense that Arte [Moreno] and [team president] John Carpino liked [Eppler] a lot then and nothing has changed now four years later,” a source tells Sherman. “That feels like a huge advantage in this process — to have a head start with the people making the decision.”
Braves Outright Jake Brigham, Michael Kohn
Earlier this week, the Braves outrighted righties Jake Brigham and Michael Kohn. Neither of the two had been among the team’s September call-ups.
After signing a minor-league deal with the Braves last November, the 27-year-old Brigham made his big-league debut in 2015 and struggled, allowing 16 runs in 16 2/3 innings. He spent a larger portion of the season with Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett and fared better, however, combining for a 3.46 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 91 innings in the minors. In June, he also took a perfect game into the ninth inning with Mississippi.
The 29-year-old Kohn pitched six outings with the Braves early in the year but suffered a shoulder strain in May and missed much of the rest of the season before briefly returning to minor-league action this month. The reliever has struggled with his control in a big-league career that spans parts of five seasons, posting a 3.52 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 6.2 BB/9 in 115 career innings.