Three Needs: San Diego Padres
As we continue working our way through the major needs of non-contenders with the offseason in sight, we’ll turn our attention to the Padres. San Diego entered the year with big expectations after a volatile winter under new GM A.J. Preller. Things haven’t worked out as planned, but the Friars nevertheless stood pat at the trade deadline. San Diego is as unpredictable as any organization in baseball right now, but here are a few areas the team might look to address:
1. Get the talent pipeline flowing. Preller came to San Diego with a reputation as a hard-working, discerning evaluator of talent who could dig up young players at good values. President/CEO Mike Dee explained the premise before the season: “But [Preller] said you don’t have to choose between one or the other. You can have both. You can have a strong pursuit of amateur and international talent and still add impact players. … I’m excited to see the second half of what he’s known for [in the international market].”
One year into Preller’s tenure, the club’s farm is lagging — even as the team struggles at the major league level. As things stand, the organization has just one top-100 prospect (Hunter Renfroe, #76 per MLB.com). The Padres didn’t have a first-round draft pick last year after sacrificing their first two choices in the James Shields signing and the Craig Kimbrel trade. And while the organization says it’s happy with its haul of July 2 prospects, it didn’t land Yoan Moncada, Yadier Alvarez, or any of the other most-hyped Latin American players on this year’s international market.
We’ve already seen Preller trade away a good portion of the upper-level talent he inherited. Now, he’ll need to show that he can successfully re-fill the system. The team appears to be headed for a top-ten draft pick, and can use qualifying offers to Justin Upton and (potentially) Ian Kennedy to add more selections and spending capacity. That’s a nice start, but more creative measures — such as trading a player like Kimbrel, searching the trade market for competitive balance picks and international signing pools, and/or looking for the next Touki Toussaint deal — may be needed.
2. Sort out the middle infield. Dating from the start of the 2011 season, the Padres rank dead last in major league baseball in middle infielder fWAR. The bulk of the positive wins above replacement from that stretch date to 2013, when Jedd Gyorko and Everth Cabrera both had solid campaigns. Other than that, San Diego has received basically replacement-level production from both the second base and shortstop positions for the last five years.
The organization is currently batting around some less-than-optimal possibilities as the offseason looms. Gyorko has looked re-born at the plate in recent months, and the team seems pleased with the initial returns on an experimental move to shortstop. But it would be brave to go into a full season on the assumption he’ll hold down that position, especially given the failed effort to use Wil Myers in center field this year. San Diego currently has the league’s worst defense, by measure of UZR/150 innings, and asking Gyorko (never a highly-regarded defender elsewhere in the infield) to step in at short seems a tall order.
That’s all the more true given that the organization isn’t exactly overflowing with talent elsewhere in the infield. Other players in the mix at second and third are Cory Spangenberg, Yangervis Solarte, and Will Middlebrooks. While some combination of that group should passably hold down those positions, it looks like a stretch for it to cover the four-through-six slots in a contending infield.
With this year’s Clint Barmes–Alexi Amarista pairing having fallen flat, and Trea Turner dealt away, an outside shortstop addition may well be necessary if expectations are to contend. San Diego can look to a trade market with several promising possibilities or pursue a group of free agents that includes some interesting-but-aging veterans who could be had on short-term deals.
3. Balance the lineup. Improving on the defensive side is one way that San Diego can add balance and situational flexibility to its roster, but even more pressing may be the need for left-right balance in the lineup. Aside from the switch-hitting Solarte, who has fairly even platoon splits over his two big league seasons, the team has a dearth of left-handed bats amongst its regulars.
There are some lefties in the mix, of course, but all appear to be part-time options at this stage. Spangenberg hits from the left side, as do Amarista and rookie Travis Jankowski — who could conceivably split time with Melvin Upton in center next year. Outfielder Alex Dickerson may get a long look to make the team as a fourth outfielder this spring, and Brett Wallace could be brought back after a surprising run (with a sample-size warning in full effect). There’s Yonder Alonso, but he’s yet to impress consistently and is out again with another injury. He may be displaced at first by Myers. Top youngsters Renfroe and Austin Hedges are righties, so it isn’t as if there is a big, left-handed bat waiting in the wings.
What can be done? As things stand, there isn’t a lot of room to spend: San Diego already has $75MM on the books, and that’s before acting on a $8MM option over Joaquin Benoit and paying arb raises to Myers, Alonso, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, and Derek Norris. While some budget bench signings are possible, the trade route looks more promising if the Padres look to add an everyday left-handed hitter or two.
AL East Notes: Yankees, O’Day, Pena, Snell
Though many Yankees fans have grown weary of Stephen Drew‘s low batting average at second base (and “grown weary” is admittedly an understatement), Chad Jennings of the Journal News offers a well-reasoned explanation for the team’s decision to stick with Drew and Brendan Ryan over the likes of Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela. Jennings notes Refsnyder’s poor second half at Triple-A and questionable glovework and also points to the fact that Ryan has been an ideal platoon-mate at second base, providing good defense and a hefty .286/.333/.500 batting line against lefties this year. Jennings dispels several oft-used myths, such as the Yankees’ reluctance to rely on young talent or the claim that only manager Joe Girardi would continue relying on a struggling veteran such as Drew.
A few more notes from the AL East…
- Darren O’Day‘s time with the Orioles is quite possibly winding down, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Despite being a bit older than typical free agents — he’s 32 and will pitch next season at 33 — O’Day is primed to cash in on a nice free-agent deal due to his recent string of dominant seasons. Manager Buck Showalter offered high praise for the sidearming setup man: “Darren, there’s no doubt he’s the leader of that bullpen,” said Showalter. The manager noted O’Day’s role in keeping the bullpen a tight-knit unit, noting that his shoes would be tough to fill if he ultimately signs elsewhere upon hitting the open market.
- Carlos Pena is humbled and grateful for the opportunity to sign a contract and retire as a member of the Rays organization, he tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “As much as the Rays have meant to me, for me to even believe that I meant the same to the Rays as well, I couldn’t be more grateful,” said Pena. “This is a dream come true to end my career in such a way, and I wouldn’t have it any other way.”
- Rays top prospect Blake Snell was disappointed not to be called up in September, writes Topkin in a separate column, but the left-hander nonetheless has hopes of making the team out of Spring Training in 2015. Snell, 22, hadn’t pitched above A-ball heading into the season but broke out with an absurd 1.61 ERA, 10.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 134 innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. Baseball America named Snell its minor league player of the year as a result of the strong performance. Snell could very well have a chance at cracking the roster next season, especially considering the fact that Topkin has recently said it seems likely that Tampa Bay will deal from its surplus of rotation options this offseason.
- Baseball America’s Matt Eddy examines Snell’s historic minor league season, noting that he’s tied for the second-lowest composite ERA for a starter since 2003, trailing only Justin Verlander. Of the 10 pitchers to have posted a composite 1.60 ERA or better across multiple minor league levels, Snell is the only one who reached Triple-A in his dominant season; the others spread their dominance across lower levels. Snell’s season, Eddy writes, was one of the best in recent minor league history.
MLBTR Podcast Featuring David Aardsma
Jeff catches up on the week’s news and notes, then welcomes veteran right-hander David Aardsma to the show to talk about how the veteran reliever is navigating the later stages of his career. Aardsma offers his thoughts on the feeling of being traded and being designated for assignment as well as the difficult decision to opt out of his minor league deal with the Dodgers this year. Also discussed is the Top Velocity program Aardsma went through this offseason and the impact it had on his mechanics and health as the season wore on.
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NL East Notes: Cespedes, Olivera, Phillies
Yoenis Cespedes has been surprised with by the overwhelming manner in which Mets fans have embraced him, he told the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff on Wednesday, and the slugging outfielder is open to a return to the Mets in free agency. Cespedes called his time with the Mets thus far the best of his Major League career because of his production, the team’s overall play and the fact that as it stands, New York is playoff-bound. Cespedes revealed to Davidoff that he was the one who instructed his agents to approach the team about removing the contractual clause that would’ve only given the Mets five days to re-sign him this offseason. Cespedes admitted to Davidoff that he knew little about the Mets before being traded there, and it was news to him that the Mets hadn’t reached the playoffs since 2006. “This year will be the next time,” Cespedes confidently told Davidoff. Cespedes also spoke to Davidoff about his decision to sign with Jay-Z’s startup agency, Roc Nation Sports, last offseason, although he didn’t get into specific details about the switch.
Here’s more from the NL East…
- Former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski spoke with ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes about the trade that sent Cespedes to the Mets, providing some insight into the final day of the non-waiver trade season. Dombrowski received an 8am phone call from Mets GM Sandy Alderson expressing serious interest in Cespedes after the Carlos Gomez trade fell through, he told Edes. His response was that Michael Fulmer would be the Tigers’ top target in talks, and Alderson replied that he’d keep in touch. At 1:30pm, Dombrowski received permission from Tigers owner Mike Ilitch to go ahead with a trade only if the return included the prospects atop Detroit’s list; there’d be no take-what-you-can-get scenario. Had their price not been met, “[W]e would’ve kept him,” said Dombrowski. Alderson had been told by Dombrowski that the Tigers would need to hear definitively within 15 minutes of the deadline, as a trade involving Cespedes would need commissioner approval due to his unique contract, and the final call conceding Fulmer was (obviously) made in time to complete the swap.
- The Braves are easing Hector Olivera into things early in his big league career, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Atlanta believes that Olivera will be in a better position to succeed in 2016 after playing winter ball in Puerto Rico and benefiting from a full Spring Training, so for the time being, they’re willing to give him a couple of nights off per week as he adjusts to life as a Major Leaguer. That’s less likely to be the case following this season, when Olivera will be counted on as a key fixture in the middle of the lineup.
- Though Ruben Amaro Jr.’s tenure as Phillies GM hasn’t produced the results the organization hoped for when Pat Gillick stepped aside in 2008, former president David Montgomery believes that Amaro deserves respect for the work he put in over the years, writes Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Amaro took the blame for a good deal of the Phillies’ misfortunes, but Montgomery notes that the decision to continue acting in a win-now capacity stretched beyond Amaro. “We pushed it hard,” said Montgomery. “We were all involved in it, and I’ve said that many times, as far as trying to get one more after we got ’08. We were all in. We knew the risk. We knew the risk that when you trade your near-ready minor leaguers, there’s going to be a dip.”
Eppler, Brown Have Interviewed For Mariners’ GM Opening
The Mariners are one of five big league teams looking for a general manager, though their search isn’t as far along as a team like the Red Sox or Angels, each of whom saw their previous GMs step down earlier than the Mariners fired Jack Zduriencik. To this point, much of the talk surrounding the Seattle GM vacancy has been preliminary and/or speculative in nature. Former Halos GM Jerry Dipoto is expected to interview, and the Mariners also have permission to interview Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler. Former Marlins GM Dan Jennings and former Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd have been linked to Seattle, though Jennings has a standing offer to return to his post with the Fish once the season ends and he’s done with his rather strange and brief tenure as the club’s on-field manager. The Mariners are said to be seeking an experienced candidate, although there is of course the possibility that a would-be rookie GM could impress in an interview.
Here’s the latest on the search for a GM in Seattle…
- The Mariners interviewed Eppler on Wednesday, reports George A. King III of the New York Post. The Mariners are the second team for which Eppler has interviewed, King notes, as he interviewed with the Angels in New York on Monday. Seattle has expanded its search to some degree, King adds, as they’re no longer set on a candidate that has prior experience. That would bode well for the likes of Eppler and Brown.
Earlier Updates
- Seattle had interest in Athletics’ assistant GM David Forst, but it appears that the club won’t have the opportunity to consider him as a candidate due to Forst’s pending promotion, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, via Twitter. It was previously reported that Oakland intends to move Forst to the GM seat, with Billy Beane stepping into a president’s role, though the precise changes and timeline remain unknown.
- Blue Jays special assistant Dana Brown will interview with the Mariners on Wednesday, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. A former scouting director for the Nationals, Brown drafted Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman and several others while overseeing the Nats’ scouting operation. (Stephen Strasburg was selected under his watch as well, although he was seen as a slam-dunk No. 1 overall pick.) As MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm wrote in a 2011 profile, Brown actually oversaw Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos when the two worked together in the Nats/Expos franchise, even going so far as to promote Anthopoulous to coordinator of scouting with the Nationals. He rejoined Anthopoulos in 2010.
Brewers To Interview Rays’ VP Chaim Bloom On Thursday
With Doug Melvin transitioning from general manager to an advisory role, the Brewers are on the hunt for a new GM. To this point, it’s known that Pirates director of player development Tyrone Brooks was in line for an interview. Additionally, reports have indicated that the Brewers have received permission from the A’s to interview assistant GM Dan Kantrovitz. Scouting director Ray Montgomery stands out as an internal candidate. Milwaukee owner Mark Attanasio is said to be eyeing a younger GM with a base in analytics. That brief recap aside, here’s the latest on Milwaukee’s GM search…
- The Brewers will interview Rays vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom on Thursday, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Rosenthal had reported last week that it was expected that the Brewers would ask permission. Bloom, formerly Tampa Bay’s director of baseball ops, was bumped to VP last offseason after Andrew Friedman made the jump to the Dodgers. The 32-year-old Yale grad would seem to fit the team’s preference for a rising young executive that can bring a familiarity with analytics to their revamped front office.
Denard Span Switches To Boras Corporation
It’s a big night for Scott Boras, it would seem. Not only has he added Greg Holland to his client list (as reported by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes), but Denard Span, too, will join the ranks of the Boras Corporation as he heads into free agency this winter, reports Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (via Twitter).
Span will hit the open market for the first time this season at the age of 31, though he’ll turn 32 in February. After debuting as a 24-year-old with the Twins in 2008, the former first-round pick (20th overall, 2002) went on to sign a five-year, $16.5MM extension with Minnesota that covered the 2010-14 seasons and included a $9MM club option for a sixth season (2015).
Span seemed primed for a nice free-agent payday following an excellent 2014 campaign, but he underwent hernia and core muscle surgery this offseason which led to back problems and eventually a hip injury that ended his season. Span had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip earlier this month, and while he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, that lengthy list of injuries limited him to 61 games in 2015. Those 61 games yielded a .301/.365/.431 batting line with five homers and 11 steals (in 11 attempts) — strong production from a player who comes with a plus defensive reputation.
Boras, of course, has experience representing a wide array of players, with Michael Bourn serving as perhaps the most applicable recent comp. Bourn landed a four-year, $48MM contract with the Indians. That was coming off a healthy season, though the contract is now also several years old, and the market has progressed. Span will join Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Wei-Yin Chen, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, among others, as 2015-16 free agents that are represented by the Boras Corporation.
Span’s change in representation has been noted in our Agency Database, which contains info on more than 2,000 players. If you come across any notable omissions or errors, please email to let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
NL Central Notes: Martinez, Byrd, Heyward, Lucroy
The Reds did indeed scout top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, but they’re not likely to sign the 20-year-old, he adds. The Reds aren’t interested in incurring maximum penalties for exceeding their international bonus pool, which they’d almost certainly need to do in order to sign Martinez. The team that signs Martinez will likely have to pay a 100 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over their allotted pool, and they’ll also be restricted from signing future international prospects for more than $300K in each of the next two signing periods. That, of course, hasn’t deterred some clubs from spending big, but it perhaps makes it more likely that we’ll see Martinez land with a team that has already exceeded its bonus pool by a substantial margin. Interestingly, though, Fay hears that the price tag may have dropped below the previous $10MM+ expectations (Twitter link).
Here’s more from the NL Central…
- Prior to being traded to the Giants, Marlon Byrd had somewhat of a “spat” with Reds bench coach Jay Bell, writes Fay in a separate column. Per Fay, Byrd became upset after Bell asked him to pinch-hit in the bottom of the eighth inning the day before he was traded, but he then sent Brayan Pena into the on-deck circle instead. Byrd ultimately wound up pinch-hitting, but only after a discussion with manager Bryan Price. “I didn’t get in a spat with Jay Bell,” said Byrd. “I had a conversation with the manager about Jay Bell. We had conversations all year about him. If you want to know more about that, you’d have to talk to him.” Byrd was traded to the Giants the next day, though he said he left on good terms with the his teammates and had generally positive things to say about the Reds in the conversation with Fay and other reporters.
- Bernie Miklasz of 101 ESPN breaks down Jason Heyward‘s free agent stock, adding that he expects the Cardinals to make a push to retain their right fielder. Though the outfield looks crowded in the short-term, Matt Holliday‘s contract is up after 2016, as is Jon Jay‘s. As such, the team could boast a future outfield of Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Heyward. While traditional numbers — homers, RBIs, batting average — don’t tell the full tale of Heyward’s value, Miklasz notes that more analytically inclined teams will be willing to make a big play for the 26-year-old. The Cardinals, Miklasz writes, prefer a higher annual value on a shorter-term deal than the risk of a nine- or 10-year pact, and they may even be open to including an opt-out clause, though that final point appears to be speculative in nature.
- Though they’re division rivals, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny had no issues giving Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy some advice on how to handle the concussion symptoms with which he is currently dealing, writes the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak. Matheny, whose playing career ended due to a long history of concussions, recommended a specialist for Lucroy to see and urged him to take his time, noting points in his career where he believes he may have suffered a concussion then returned to the field the very next day, only to take another foul ball to the mask. “[Matheny] said it was not worth a repeat hit when you’re not healed up, because that’s when things get really, really bad in terms of not being able to drive, not being able to look at lights, throwing up and nausea and stuff like that,” said Lucroy. “He really stressed, ‘Take your time.'” Dr. Micky Collins has told Lucroy that he can make a full recovery from what has been diagnosed as a vestibular concussion — or one that impacts his coordination and movement.
Greg Holland Switches To Boras Corporation
Royals closer Greg Holland has switched representation and is now a client of the Boras Corporation, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (via Twitter). The 29-year-old Holland will hit arbitration for the final time this offseason, meaning he’s just one year from free agency and a potentially massive payday.
Holland has been a vital part of the Royals’ rise to prominence in the American League Central, pairing with fellow right-handers Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera to form a dominant trio at the back end of manager Ned Yost’s bullpen. Ryan Madson — one of the American League’s great comeback stories in 2015 — has been added to that mix this season, creating a formidable group that has helped the Royals run away with their division.
However, if there’s been a weak link in the chain this season, it has somewhat surprisingly been Holland. After working to a flat-out dominant 1.86 ERA with 12.6 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 256 1/3 innings from 2011-14, Holland has stepped back and worked to a more pedestrian (though still solid) 3.56 ERA in 2015. He’s still averaging a healthy 10.0 K/9, but he’s also averaging five walks per nine innings. Holland missed about three weeks with a strained pectoral muscle early in the season and may not be 100 percent at present, as his normally mid-90s velocity has dropped to the upper 80s. Holland voiced confidence to reporters today, including MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan, that he could continue to succeed even with diminished velocity.
“If you’re thinking about that stuff, you’re bound to fail,” Holland told the media. “I don’t let that dictate what I do. My job is to get three outs before they tie the game. I’ve done a pretty good job of it. They pay me a lot of money to do it.”
While the first portion of Holland’s assessment is up for debate, the final statement there is an unequivocal fact. Holland is earning $8.25MM in 2015 and will bring three consecutive seasons of 30-plus saves into arbitration this winter, creating a very strong case at a salary in excess of $10MM. Assuming a rebound season, one can imagine Holland and Scott Boras seeking a record-setting contract on the open market, though they’ll face steep competition in the 2016-17 offseason in the form of Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
Holland’s switch has been noted in the MLBTR Agency Database, which contains info on more than 2,000 Major League and Minor League players. If you spot any notable omissions or inaccuracies, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Giants Designate Daniel Carbonell For Assignment
The Giants announced that they have selected the contracts of outfielder Mac Williamson and catcher Trevor Brown from Triple-A. To clear room on the 40-man roster, Joe Panik has been transferred to the 60-day DL, and outfielder Daniel Carbonell has been designated for assignment, per Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link).
Carbonell, now 24 years old, signed a four-year, $3.5MM contract with the Giants last summer after defecting from Cuba. Though he performed exceptionally well last season in the low minors, he struggled in the Arizona Fall League and looked similarly overmatched in 2015, batting just .146/.173/.194 in 218 plate appearances at the Double-A level. Carbonell’s bat was said to be raw at the time of his signing, with scouts praising his glovework and speed over his bat.