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West Notes: Buehler, Kershaw, Rangers, Astros, Giants, Yamamoto

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The Dodgers have long seemed likely to lean on the services of right-hander Walker Buehler next season as he returns from rehabbing Tommy John surgery, which will have kept him away from the major league mound for nearly two years by the time Opening Day 2024 rolls around. While the club has recently bolstered its rotation with the additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the club’s starting corps still offers little certainty beyond that duo, Buehler, and sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller even as youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone show promise.

According to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, the club may be more careful with Buehler’s return to action than initially expected. While the right-hander is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training, Plunkett indicates that the club intends to limit Buehler’s innings in 2024, though he relays comments from GM Brandon Gomes that indicate the club is likely to be “flexible” regarding the specific innings total Buehler is allowed to reach and his schedule for the 2024 campaign as a whole. Plunkett goes on to suggest that one possibility would be delaying the start of Buehler’s 2024 season in order to ensure he’ll be available to the Dodgers come October.

If the Dodgers do intend to have Buehler sit out the start of the season, it would further incentivize the club to add additional depth to its rotation even after landing both Yamamoto and Glasnow. Even if the club ends up reuniting with longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, the veteran lefty isn’t expected to return to the mound until sometime next summer after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. Adding an additional starting pitching option who figures to be ready to go on Opening Day along with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Miller would allow the club to have the likes of Sheehan, Stone, and Ryan Yarbrough battle for the fifth starting job entering the season rather than using them to cover multiple rotation spots.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • While he has re-upped with the Dodgers on one-year pacts each of the past two offseasons, it doesn’t appear that Kershaw’s return to L.A. is necessarily guaranteed, as Kershaw’s hometown Rangers have been frequently connected to the veteran lefty this offseason on the heels of their first World Series championship in franchise history. While the club already has Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle all targeting midseason returns from surgeries of their own, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s recent surgery hasn’t deterred the Rangers from their pursuit of the 3-time Cy Young Award winner. While Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, he’s been as valuable as ever when he manages to take the mound with a 2.67 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 78 starts since the start of the 2020 season.
  • Astros center field prospect Jacob Melton was a hot commodity on the trade market at the trade deadline this year, as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome relays comments from Houston GM Dana Brown who told a podcast run by the Astros that Melton was “the one guy [he] was afraid to give away” but that he was asked after in “almost every” trade conversation last summer. Rome goes on to note some officials in the organization internally valued him more highly than top prospect Drew Gilbert, who was part of the package the club dealt to New York to re-acquire Justin Verlander. Melton, 23, was the club’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft and slashed .245/.334/.467 across 99 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.
  • While the Giants ultimately fell short in their pursuit of Yamamoto, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the club was “in the mix right until the very end” and that Yamamoto was impressed enough with San Francisco’s pitch that the club would have been the “West Coast finalist” for his services had the Dodgers not entered the fray after signing Shohei Ohtani. A source indicated to Slusser that Ohtani’s presence on the Dodgers played a role in Yamamoto’s decision to ultimately sign with the club for a record-breaking $325MM guaranteed over twelve years.

AL Notes: Verdugo, Astros, Mariners

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With the Red Sox front office seeing change at the top following the firing of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, it’s hard to predict what sort of direction Boston might go in this offseason before they find a replacement for Bloom at the top of the club’s hierarchy. Still, there are some clues, most notably comments by team president and CEO Sam Kennedy that indicate the club hopes to sign some of their younger players to long-term extensions, with the likes of right-hander Brayan Bello, first baseman Triston Casas, and outfielders Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu earning particular mention.

While Duran had experience in the infield during his time in the minors, both he and Abreu are exclusively outfielders at the big league level. Between Boston’s apparent belief in both youngsters, the emergence of top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela as perhaps the club’s best defender in center field, and the presence of Masataka Yoshida on a long-term deal, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see where outfielder Alex Verdugo fits in for the Red Sox. As noted by Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, however, Verdugo spoke glowingly of the organization on the final day of the regular season.

“Hopefully I stay here with the Red Sox,” Verdugo said, “I love this organization. I have made it clear to them.” At the same time, Verdugo acknowledged the uncertainty of his position headed into the offseason before saying, “You just have to work hard… If it’s not this team, there’s 29 other teams.”

A free agent after the 2024 campaign, Verdugo would be an interesting trade candidate if dangled by the Red Sox this offseason. Verdugo finished the 2023 campaign on a rough note, slashing just .225/.268/.367 in the second half. Prior to that, however, he was a borderline All Star with a .290/.360/.457 slash line that was in line with the very best performances of his career. Taken together, it makes for a roughly league average production (98 wRC+) in 142 games this year. Verdugo also contributed positively with the glove, registering +1 Outs Above Average after posting -5 marks in each of the previous two seasons. That combination of solid defense in right field and a league average or better lefty bat should be intriguing to outfield-needy clubs, particularly given a fairly soft free agent class at the position.

More from the American League…

  • The Astros are set to begin their postseason push tomorrow with a five-game set against the Twins in the ALDS, but GM Dana Brown is already making plans for what comes next when the team’s season concludes. As noted by MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Brown, who joined the Astros as GM back in January, has made clear that promotions are inbound for other members of the club’s front office, saying that he’s “found out they have a lot of good people here.” Brown noted that “at least six” promotions are expected within the front office. While the specific personnel and role changes being discussed aren’t yet clear, it’s sensible for the Astros to promote from within as front offices around baseball begin asking their fellow organizations for permission to interview club employees for positions in their own organization. As previously mentioned, the Red Sox are looking for a new head of their baseball operations department, while the Mets could look to replace GM Billy Eppler in the near future after he stepped down from his role as David Stearns’s second in command yesterday.
  • With managerial vacancies in Anaheim, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Queens already announced, plenty of clubs are already making changes in the dugout this offseason. MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi suggests that the Mariners could see several members of their coaching staff get significant attention for the open positions, listing bullpen coach Stephen Vogt, first base coach Kristopher Negron, and third base coach Manny Acta all as Seattle coaches who could be under consideration for one or more of the current vacancies. Acta is the only one of the three with previous managerial experience at the big league level; in addition to three years with the Nationals from 2007-2009, he stands as Cleveland’s most recent manager besides Terry Francona, who retired from managing following the 2023 campaign.

AL West Notes: Angels, Leiter, Astros

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After a strong start to the 2023 campaign, the Angels have faltered with a 4-14 record over their last 18 games. That slip to fourth place in the AL West has been accompanied by a rash of major injuries to key players like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Gio Urshela. Fortunately for the club, the tides of their injury misfortune may be turning. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger notes that both infielder Brandon Drury and catcher Logan O’Hoppe have progressed to hitting off a tee in their injury rehab processes.

Drury, in a particular, seems poised for a quick return, as Bollinger adds that he hopes to return from injury “in a few days.” O’Hoppe is farther away, considering his initial recovery timeline of four to six months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum back in April. Still, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register indicates that O’Hoppe’s recovery is going well, as he told reporters that his healing process following the surgery is expected to end next week, allowing him to focus on baseball activities going forward. While no specifics were given regarding O’Hoppe’s timeline for return, his most recent comments seem to leave the possibility of a late-season return on the table, which is excellent news given his status as the Angels’ top prospect entering the 2023 campaign.

More from around the AL West…

  • It’s been a frustrating season for the Rangers and 2021 second overall pick Jack Leiter. After his selection in the 2021 draft, Leiter entered the 2022 season as a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport. Since then, however, he’s struggled mightily when pitching at the Double-A level, with a 5.54 ERA in 92 2/3 innings of work last season that saw him fall off many top 100 lists entering the 2023 campaign. Things haven’t gotten better from there, as Leiter has posted an eerily similar 5.52 ERA in 15 starts (65 1/3 innings) this season. Leiter’s struggles culminated in the club moving him to the development list yesterday, taking him off the Double-A active roster. Per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today, the club hopes to work with Leiter on his mechanics in a more controlled environment than minor league starts can provide, and has offered no timetable for Leiter’s return to game action. It’s a deeply disappointing update for Rangers fans, as the 54-39 club would surely benefit from the front-line production Leiter was expected to provide when he was selected with the second overall pick two years ago.
  • While the Astros have not been shy about their desire to acquire rotation help ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, Astros GM Dana Brown recently discussed with reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) the club’s back-up plan in the event that the club fails to acquire a surefire starter for the rotation over the next couple of weeks. Brown indicated that the club would consider a second half call-up for right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to help supplement the rotation if reinforcements are still necessary after the deadline. A sixth-round pick in the 2021 draft, Arrighetti a 4.21 ERA in 72 2/3 innings of work between the Double- and Triple-A levels this season. While Arrighetti seems unlikely to provide the same impact a rental starter such as Lucas Giolito or Eduardo Rodriguez could offer, the Astros have managed to find success while relying on unheralded rookies this season, including J.P. France, Ronel Blanco, and Shawn Dubin.

Brown: Astros Prioritizing Rotation Help

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Astros general manager Dana Brown hasn’t been shy about his desire to add a left-handed bat to his lineup, publicly calling that his front office’s focus as recently as two weeks ago. However, asked this morning during his weekly appearance on 790 AM’s Sean Salisbury Show where he’d make an upgrade if he could only improve at one spot on his roster, the first-year GM changed course and suggested it’d be in the rotation (link contains full audio of the 11-minute interview).

“With the pitchers that we’ve had going down, it could put us in a situation where we come up short or we don’t get to that next round of the playoffs,” said Brown. “A good arm would be really, really helpful. … The problem is, there are not many good arms out there.”

[Related: Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates]

Houston has seen more than its share of rotation injuries in 2023. Lance McCullers Jr. won’t pitch this year after undergoing flexor tendon surgery, and the ’Stros have also lost fellow righty Luis Garcia to Tommy John surgery. Jose Urquidy has been out since late April due to a shoulder injury. And, since Brown’s last comments about prioritizing a bat, he’s revealed that ace Framber Valdez has been pitching through an ankle sprain. Meanwhile, right-hander Cristian Javier has been slumping (22 runs in his past 21 1/3 innings) and had his spot in the rotation skipped over leading into the break. Brown indicated this morning that Javier simply “needed a breather” and gave no indication that the right-hander is dealing with any sort of injury.

As it stands, the Astros are leaning on Valdez (ostensibly at less than 100%), Brandon Bielak and rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France. Presumably, Javier will slot back into the rotation early in the second half. Houston has taken a look at right-handers Ronel Blanco and Shawn Dubin in the rotation, too. By and large, it’s a group of inexperienced starters. Outside of Brown, none of the rookies were considered particularly high-end prospects. Each of Brown, Bielak, France and Dubin is already approaching his 2022 innings total; Blanco has already exceeded last year’s workload. Urquidy has not yet begun a minor league rehab assignment.

Even with those injuries and workload concerns, Houston starters rank fourth in the Majors with a 3.74 ERA. Valdez’s outstanding year plays a large role in that collective figure, but Houston’s in-house rotation reinforcements have undeniably done a nice job in keeping the team afloat. With each rapidly approaching last year’s innings tally and with Valdez at least somewhat banged up, it’s natural to hear Brown express a desire to bolster the group.

In prior comments, Brown made clear that he’s not interested in parting with the top prospects in his system in exchange for rental players. Pitchers controlled beyond the current season could potentially fall into a different category, and if there are teams willing to put controllable arms up for sale, the Astros could be more apt to part with higher-end talent. Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Michael Lorenzen are among the rental arms expected to be available, while more controllable trade candidates include Shane Bieber and Paul Blackburn. Righties Kyle Hendricks and Lance Lynn both have team options for the 2024 season, though Lynn could be trending toward a buyout. Marcus Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez have opt-out opportunities this winter, so they’ll be treated as rentals, at best, by interested parties.

Astros Open To Trading Outfielder

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The upcoming trade deadline seems slated to be different than those of the past. Due to the expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions, there’s a small number of teams that are truly out of contention and in traditional seller position. That could lead to more trades with contenders on both ends and the Astros are exploring that possibility, looking to move an outfielder to help out elsewhere, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

“We’re exploring trading major-league player for major-league player with teams that are contending that make sense,” general manager Dana Brown tells Rosenthal. “We have a lot of outfielders right now. If we could move an outfield piece for something that could fill another need, we probably would be interested in doing that. Player for player? Yeah. We have to get creative to open up the market. We’re definitely exploring that.”

The 2023 Astros aren’t quite as dominant as in previous seasons but they are still firmly in the postseason chase. Their 44-37 record has them just half a game behind the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot and Brown is adamant that they won’t be stripping the roster down to the studs. “I can’t see any scenario where we sell,” he says.

However, it does seem as though the club is willing to consider subtracting one of its outfielders in order to address other needs. Brown has been fairly open in recent weeks about how the club would ideally like to add a versatile left-handed bat or perhaps some pitching help. Traditionally, they might have been able to achieve those goals by dealing prospects. But since their theoretical trading partners could be contenders this year, the Astros may have to move a big leaguer.

With Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez on the injured list, the club has been using an outfield mix of Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Corey Julks. With Brantley and Alvarez working their way back to health, it’s possible that someone in that group gets squeezed off the roster and onto the trade block.

Tucker is one of the best players in the league and wouldn’t be going anywhere, especially because he’s the only left-handed hitter in the regular lineup. Since Brown has been quite open about how the club would love to get more left-handed, it would make more sense to consider moving one of the other three, who are each right-handed.

McCormick, 28, debuted with the club in 2021 and has appeared in 270 major league games so far. He’s struck out 28.5% of his plate appearances but also walked at a 9.6% rate and hit 35 home runs. His .249/.327/.428 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 112, indicating he’s been 12% above league average. He’s also stolen 15 bases and received positive grades for his glovework. He’s accrued 14 Defensive Runs Saved in his career, 21 Outs Above Average and a 7.2 mark from Ultimate Zone Rating. He’s played all three outfield spots but most of his work has been in center.

Competent center fielders are always in demand and McCormick’s above-average offense would only enhance his appeal. He’s also cheap, coming into this season with exactly two years of service time. He will get to the three-year mark at season’s end and have three years of arbitration control beyond this campaign. Rosenthal reports that the Yankees had previous interest in him but never got close to a deal.

Meyers, 27, also debuted in 2021 but hasn’t been able to hit at McCormick’s level. Meyers has a 29.8% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate, with his .237/.305/.380 batting line amounting to a wRC+ of just 92. But like McCormick, his outfield defense is graded well, primarily in center field. Overall, he’s racked up 12 DRS, 18 OAA and a 6.4 UZR. He’ll finish this year with less than three years of service time, giving him an extra year before he reaches arbitration and three more seasons of control beyond that.

Julks, 27, just debuted this year, cracking the Opening Day roster. He’s hit .265/.307/.398 through his first 225 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 95. He’s only played the corners but has been considered slightly above average there. He’s also stolen 12 bases already this year. Since he just debuted, he isn’t slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028.

These players will each have varying degrees of interest depending on which club the Astros are talking to. Lining up a trade of this nature may be challenging because it will require the other team to have an outfield need but also an ability to part with something else that Houston wants. That might be a tricky tightrope to walk but it seems as though just about every contending club might have to give it a try this year.

Astros GM: “Versatile” Left-Handed Bat Would Be “Ideal” Deadline Acquisition

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There’s still seven weeks until this year’s Aug. 1 trade deadline, but teams are beginning to look ahead and identify their preferred areas of upgrade even with plenty of schedule left before that pivotal date. D-backs GM Mike Hazen candidly discussed some of his team’s needs last week, and Astros GM Dana Brown did the same over the weekend in an appearance with Robert Ford on Houston’s Sports Talk 790 AM (audio link). Specifically, Brown called a “versatile” left-handed bat who can play both the infield and outfield an “ideal” addition for his club.

“We’re having meetings about trade, and if we can add a bat, that would be outstanding,” says Brown. “We’re not opposed to adding another arm if it makes sense and if the deal is right, but I really feel like the pitching has carried us for the most part this season. If we can add a bat, that would be exciting. … A left-handed bat would be exciting, but any bat that can hit both sides, that’s actually good too. In terms of position, if you can get a guy that can play multiple positions, that would be great. You could give some guys some time in the outfield, give the first baseman a day, give the DH a day. Having a guy that’s versatile — that would be ideal.”

With Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley both on the injured list — Brantley has yet to even play this season — the only left-handed bat in Houston’s lineup is Kyle Tucker. The Astros also have a primarily right-handed bench, with only catcher Cesar Salazar offering a lefty stick. The disparity is plenty apparent when looking at the team’s splits. Astros hitters are batting a strong .260/.326/.437 against lefties in 2023 (111 wRC+, 10th in MLB) but have a .241/.310/.382 output against righties (94 wRC+, 18th in MLB).

Given the seven weeks remaining between now and the deadline, it’s impossible to say exactly who’ll be available that fits that description, though there are some names who seem likelier than others. For example, assuming he’s back from the injured list and at full strength by that time, former NL MVP Cody Bellinger could fit the bill. The Cubs are currently nine games under .500, and Bellinger is playing on a one-year contract.

More controllable names who speculatively meet that criteria include A’s slugger Seth Brown (controlled through 2026), Tigers utilityman Zach McKinstry (through 2027) and Jays infielder/outfielder Cavan Biggio (through 2025). Oakland’s Brown missed more than a month with an oblique strain and hasn’t gotten going so far in 2023, but he’s a career .240/.311/.483 hitter against righties. He can play first base and all three outfield spots, and the A’s are of course open to trading just about anyone. The Biggio name is royalty in Houston, but the versatile 28-year-old has been relegated to a seldom-used bench role in Toronto that leaves both him and the organization in a tough spot. The Tigers probably plan to keep McKinstry around given those additional four years of control, but they’ve lost nine straight and are now 11 games under .500, so there’s likely not much to which they’ll be completely closed off. If the Giants dip out of the race, LaMonte Wade Jr. would fit this bill perfectly, but San Francisco is only a half-game back from an NL Wild Card spot for the time being.

Of course, we’re still likely weeks away from serious trade talks percolating. Deals of significance in June are rare (albeit not unprecedented), making July a far likelier timetable for trade activity to pick up in earnest — particularly after the All-Star Game and MLB Draft are completed. As things stand, the Astros aren’t yet even fully sure as to when they can expect Alvarez and Brantley back. That pair of timetables will surely impact the urgency of this pursuit, but even with both at full strength, there’s plenty of room for Houston to add a lefty bat to manager Dusty Baker’s collection of hitters.

Dana Brown Discusses Astros’ Attempted Contract Extensions

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The Astros hired Dana Brown to be the club’s new general manager in January, plucking him from his previous job as vice president of scouting for Atlanta. Since then, he’s been quite open about his desire to replicate that club’s penchant for signing core players to long-term extensions, though his tune has been changing this week.

Brown’s previous employer has been very aggressive at locking up players to lengthy deals, with Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris all recently putting pen to paper. Since switching clubs, Brown has mentioned Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman as some of the players he’s hoping to be similarly locked up with his new club.

The Javier extension was crossed off the list last month but it seems the plans for the others have hit a few snags since then, as it was reported last night that the club isn’t very close to a deal in its talks with either Valdez and Tucker. Brown provided some comments on the situation to reporters today, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, acknowledging that he “felt a little less optimistic” about getting deals done with those two players.

The reporting yesterday indicated that Brown expected to have more information in the next 48 hours. That timeline still seems to be holding today, with Brown saying he’s expecting to hear from the representatives of both players by Thursday afternoon, though he doesn’t want to characterize it as a deadline. “We’re trying to have conversations and, at some point, the player wants to play,” Brown said. “We can still talk. It’s not a deadline. It’s like ‘Hey, I’ll get back to you in the next 24-48 hours and give you an update.’ It’s not that it’s over. It’s just that, for right now, we may decide to wait a little bit.”

Despite Brown’s initial eagerness to get these deals done, he’s now operating in a new organization. As Rome points out, the largest extension that the Astros have given out under owner Jim Crane is the five-year, $151MM deal for Altuve, followed by six years and $115MM for Yordan Alvarez and then five years and $100MM for Bregman. Brown suggests that Crane is willing to go a bit beyond the five-year mark, but not substantially.

“I think Jim is willing to (go) further, I just don’t know that I have the comfort of going as long as, say, maybe I’ll have to to get Tucker done,” Brown said. “I just don’t like big deals. If they’re open for something a little more than five, maybe I would be open to doing that. I’m sure Jim would be, too. I think Jim is very open. But doing 10-year deals, I don’t know if we’ll ever get to that point. That’s a lot of years, man. I’m not comfortable doing 10. I don’t mind doing 10 if you get a guy to the big leagues in the early 20s, really feel like he’s a big piece of the franchise, face of the franchise, and get him done for 10 and he finishes it out at 32-33. I’m OK with that,” Brown continued. “These deals that go beyond 33, for me, I’m uncomfortable. The analytics on that is not good.”

Rome adds that he asked Brown about the fact that Atlanta, under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, gave Olson $168MM over eight years and then $212MM over ten years to Riley. “Alex was the boss there. I don’t know if I would have done those deals because I’m just not a 10-year guy. But I would do multiple years. I would even go up to seven.” Riley’s ten-year deal is set to go through 2032, when he will be in his age-35 season. Olson’s will go through 2029, which will also be his age-35 season. Atlanta has a club option on each player for their respective age-36 seasons. According to Brown’s framing, those deals both went beyond his comfort zone but that Anthopoulos had a greater willingness to lengthen those deals to get them done.

Tucker is 26 years old right now and is set to make $5MM this season after losing his arbitration battle to the club. If the Astros were to offer him a seven-year extension that begins next season, it would go through 2030, which would be Tucker’s age-33 campaign. Taking Brown’s comments at face value, it seems that is where his comfort zone ends. It’s possible that this is merely a negotiating tactic and that the willingness to do a longer deal is greater than he’s letting on. But it’s also possible that the reason a deal hasn’t come together yet is that Tucker’s camp is trying to push for a longer pact that goes into his mid-3os, like those secured by Olson and Riley.

Whether the Astros can bridge those gaps and get extensions done remains to be seen, but it seems Brown’s preference would be for them to come together soon. “I don’t like to do much of it during the season, if you can avoid that,” he says. In the grand scheme of things, these comments perhaps point to Brown changing course from his time in Atlanta, either because that is his prerogative or the organization’s. If one takes him at his word, then this means the club will perhaps have less risk tolerance than Atlanta and will therefore be less likely to hand out extensions to its players. The club’s eventual actions will be more important than words in establishing the reputation, but the outward suggestion is that the blueprint in Houston won’t be exactly the same as it was in Atlanta.

Astros Notes: Altuve, Gage, McCullers

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Dana Brown’s first few weeks with the Astros has already seen the new general manager sign Cristian Javier to a five-year, $64MM contract extension, and more long-term deals seem to be on Brown’s radar in the near future.  Jose Altuve was one of several players cited by Brown as extension candidates, with the new GM making the particular point that the longtime second baseman “should be in Houston for life.”  This is music to Altuve’s ears, who told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that “it’s really good to hear that” from Brown.  “I hope to retire here, so I think we’re on the same page.”

Altuve has become a franchise icon over his 12 seasons with Houston, and has already signed one big-money extension with the club — a seven-year, $163.5MM deal that runs through the 2024 season.  A new contract could overwrite the last year or two of that previous deal, of course, or the Astros might simply look to tack a few more seasons onto Altuve’s existing pact.  2025 is Altuve’s age-35 season, yet there isn’t any sign of slowing down, considering that Altuve’s 164 wRC+ in 2022 was the best of his career.

More from the defending World Series champs….

  • The Astros claimed Matt Gage off waivers from the Blue Jays earlier this week, and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi adds some interesting details behind the transaction.  Gage will receive a split contract with a $770K salary in the majors and $170K in the minors, and the Astros included a $125K signing bonus.  The bonus was included in order to convince Gage to join the team, because Gage had the right to reject Houston’s claim and test free agency since the Jays placed him on release waivers rather than standard outright waivers.  Before offering the signing bonus, Brown first had to contact the league office to confirm that the unusual tactic was allowed in release waiver situations.
  • Manager Dusty Baker gave a positive update on Lance McCullers Jr. yesterday following the news that the righty had been temporarily shut down due to arm soreness.  Baker and Brown made similar statements today to FOX 26’s Mark Berman (Twitter links) and other reporters, with Brown noting that he is “not alarmed at all” by the “day-to-day” nature of McCullers’ issue.

Brown: Astros Pursuing Extensions With Multiple Core Players

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It’s been two weeks since the Astros tabbed now-former Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager, but Brown has wasted little time in embarking on extension talks with Houston’s core players. The GM acknowledged earlier this week that he’s had talks with Kyle Tucker’s camp in the run-up to Tucker’s arbitration hearing, but there are far more players under consideration, it seems.

Brown told reporters today that he’s held discussions not only with Tucker and his reps but also with the agents for right-hander Cristian Javier. Furthermore, the newly minted GM publicly expressed interest in extending third baseman Alex Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve (Twitter links, with video, via Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26). Both Bregman and Altuve are currently signed through 2024. Bregman told the media today that Brown and agent Scott Boras have already had conversations.

The Astros haven’t necessarily been shy about extensions under prior front office regimes, but it’s a change of pace to hear the team’s top baseball operations executive so candidly discuss such matters. Houston has, in recent years, brokered long-term deals with Bregman (five years, $100MM), Altuve (five years, $151MM), Yordan Alvarez (six years, $115MM) and Lance McCullers Jr. (five years, $85MM) before each reached free agency.

That said, the team hasn’t been quite so aggressive with players early in their pre-arbitration years — a recent hallmark of the Braves organization which Brown just departed. Outside of Altuve’s original four-year, $12.5MM extension, the Astros have generally waited until their players have accrued three or more years of service time, hence the heftier nature of the annual salaries on those previously mentioned long-term pacts. That, it seems, is something Brown endeavors to change (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

“I think [owner Jim Crane] and I are going to meet somewhere in the middle,” said Brown. “I’m more on the aggressive side of signing them, he may be more on the conservative side, but he’s very open to getting these players signed.” Brown also added that he’s told Crane to “fasten his seatbelt — it’s time.”

It’s likely music to the ears of Astros fans, who saw substantial roster turnover from the 2017 World Series team to the 2022 World Championship club. Bregman, Altuve, McCullers, Yuli Gurriel and Justin Verlander — who’s since departed via free agency — were the only players on both rosters. While that quintet eventually signed new contracts (Verlander opted out of his most recent deal to again test free agency; Gurriel took a one-year extension with a club option covering 2021-22), none of the team’s newly emerged core has put pen to paper on a long-term arrangement just yet.

Brown spoke with particular optimism regarding the progress made on a potential long-term deal with Javier, the 25-year-old right-hander who has emerged as one of the team’s best starting pitchers. Javier logged a career-high 148 2/3 innings this past season, notching an outstanding 2.54 ERA and fanning a massive 33.2% of his opponents against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. He’s controlled for another three seasons and, like Tucker, is working to avoid a looming arbitration hearing. Javier filed for a $3.5MM salary to the Astros’ counter of $3MM, but it seems there’s a decent chance the two parties work out a lengthier arrangement. “We feel really good about that one,” Brown stated.

Contract extensions for arbitration-eligible players like Javier tend to be based heavily on precedent, which at least provides some potential clues to where the numbers could eventually fall. Recent examples of long-term deals for pitchers with between three and four years of service time (Javier has three exactly), include Aaron Nola’s four-year, $45MM deal from 2019 (which contained a club option for a fifth season) and, more recently, Sandy Alcantara’s five-year, $56MM extension (with an option for a sixth season).

On a rate basis, Javier stacks up favorably to both Alcantara and Nola at the time of their respective extensions; he’s arguably been even better, with a lower ERA (3.05 to Nola’s 3.35 and Alcantara’s 3.49) and a considerably better strikeout rate (30.9% for Javier, 25.7% for Nola, 21.2% for Alcantara). However, both Nola and Alcantara had amassed vastly higher innings totals heading into their first arbitration seasons. Javier has just 304 1/3 career innings (partly due to ample time in the bullpen before a more permanent move to the rotation in 2022), whereas Alcantara had 487 1/3 innings and Nola had piled up a massive 569 frames.

That workload discrepancy is the primary reason that Javier’s projected $3.3MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) falls well shy of the $4.5MM at which Alcantara was projected prior to his extension and the $6.6MM at which Nola was projected. That’s not to say Javier can’t find a way to top the guarantees on either deal, but his camp would need to secure a larger AAV on the free-agent years or perhaps agree to a sixth guaranteed year in order to do so, as his arbitration seasons are inherently going to be valued at lesser rates than those recent comps.

Turning back to a broader look at today’s press conference, Brown didn’t tip his hand on every player with whom he plans to pursue a contract extension, though it’s easy enough to look up and down the roster and identify a few speculative candidates. Shortstop Jeremy Pena has just one year of MLB service under his belt. He’s two years from reaching arbitration and another five years from free agency. Lefty Framber Valdez and righty Luis Garcia, meanwhile, are three and four seasons away from reaching the open market, respectively. Looking to how the Braves operated, it also wouldn’t be a shock to see top prospects like Hunter Brown (0.89 ERA in a 20 1/3 inning MLB debut last year) approached about long-term arrangements fairly early on in their MLB tenures.

Not every overture to sign a player will be successful, of course, but Brown made clear that one of his philosophical beliefs about the job is to correctly identify core players early on and aggressively present scenarios intended to keep them with the club beyond their base six years of control.

“I want you guys to know if a guy walks out of here, it’s not going to be because we didn’t go after him aggressively,” said Brown. “We’re trying to sign players.”

Astros Name Dana Brown General Manager

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The Astros have hired Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager, the team announced Thursday. He’ll replace James Click, who held the position from 2020-22 but departed after the season.

“We are excited to have Dana join our organization,” Astros owner Jim Crane said in today’s press release. “He brings championship caliber experience to our team and is the right fit for us to continue to deliver a winning franchise on and off the field. We welcome Dana and his family to the Astros family.”

Brown has been the Braves’ vice president of scouting for the past four seasons, overseeing drafts that netted the Braves talent such as Spencer Strider, Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom, Shea Langeliers and Bryce Elder. Prior to being hired by Atlanta in 2019, he was a special assistant in the Blue Jays’ front office for nine years — overlapping with current Braves president of baseball operations (and former Toronto GM) Alex Anthopoulos for a substantial portion of that tenure. Brown spent the nine preceding seasons as the director of scouting for the Expos/Nationals and was an area supervisor and crosschecker in the Pirates’ scouting department for eight years in the 90s.

Even six months ago, the notion of the Astros needing to hire a new general manager would’ve registered as a surprise. There were reports of growing friction between Crane and Click late in the 2022 season, but winning tends to cure all, and the Astros not only made a deep postseason run but took home their second World Series title in the past six seasons — Click’s first in just his third year on the job.

However, while 73-year-old skipper Dusty Baker was content to take a one-year extension despite having just secured a championship, Click understandably sought a multi-year offer with his original three-year contract drawing to a close. Crane put forth what was widely viewed as a token one-year extension offer — Click’s World Series counterpart Dave Dombrowski, for comparison, was extended through 2027 by the Phillies — which was swiftly rejected by Click. The Astros announced Click’s departure two days later and, on the same day, fired assistant GM Scott Powers, whom Click had hired away from the Dodgers back in Jan. 2022.

The Astros have operated without a general manager throughout the offseason. Crane has personally taken a large role in baseball operations, negotiating Rafael Montero’s three-year, $34.5MM deal to return to the club and Jose Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract. Assistant GMs Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball and Charles Cook have all retained roles near the top of the hierarchy, and former Astros star and current front office advisor Jeff Bagwell has also reportedly influenced the team’s baseball operations decisions.

Brown will now step to the top of the Astros’ baseball operations department, ostensibly with full autonomy over the team’s roster decisions moving forward. Reports have indicated that Crane was more involved than most owners even prior to Click’s departure — he nixed a deadline trade that would’ve sent Jose Urquidy to the Cubs for Willson Contreras — and only time will tell whether he has a more hands-off approach with his newly minted general manager.

Brown’s appointment as general manager marks at least something of a philosophical shift from recent regimes. Former president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow, who was fired in the wake of the 2017 trashcan scandal, was among the foremost voices in bringing about the analytical revolution in modern baseball front offices. Click, meanwhile, came from a similarly data-driven Rays organization, where he’d served as vice president of baseball operations and, per the Rays (at the time of his hiring in Houston) had “a focus on baseball research and development” and “baseball systems,” among other responsibilities.

That’s not to say that neither Luhnow nor Click had any scouting acumen themselves, just as it’s not to say that Brown is unfamiliar with many of the data-oriented principles that guide modern front offices (to varying extents). Nonetheless, Brown’s background is rooted in more traditional types of player evaluation; the Astros, under Luhnow, moved away from in-person scouting to put a greater focus on video scouting. That had already begun to change under Click, who worked hard over his final year to replenish some of the scouting resources lost under the prior regime’s shift.

Just as we can’t yet know whether Crane’s more hands-on approach will change with Brown in the GM’s chair, it’s impossible to state whether the Astros will pivot to a more scouting-heavy focus — or at least a more balanced blend between data-based and scouting-based evaluations. Brown and Crane will surely speak on the matter in the near future; the Astros have called a 2:30pm press conference to formally introduce their new general manager.

Mark Berman of FOX 26 first reported that Brown would be Houston’s new GM (Twitter link).

Photo courtesy of the Houston Astros.

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