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Anthony Rizzo Retires

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The Cubs have announced that Anthony Rizzo will retire as a Cub and will be honored this Saturday at Wrigley Field as the club hosts the Rays. He will also serve as an ambassador for the organization. Jesse Rogers of ESPN was among those to relay the news.

Rizzo, now 36, was part of a few different organizations in his career but will always be primarily known as a Cub. He spent the bulk of his career, including essentially all of his prime, in Chicago. That stretch saw him emerge as a core piece as the team became a regular contender in the last half of the previous decade. The highlight came in 2016, when the Cubs finally won the World Series, breaking a 108-year drought.

There was talk of a potential dynasty on Chicago’s north side after that year, as that young core of Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras and Jorge Soler was controllable, affordable and formidable. The top of the rotation appeared set for years, with Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks all squarely in their primes and signed/controlled long-term. The Cubs indeed were competitive on a yearly basis for the remainder of the decade, but they fell to the Dodgers in the 2017 NLCS and haven’t advanced beyond the Wild Card round of postseason play since.

Before that legendary run, Rizzo had to pass through a few other places first. He was drafted by the Red Sox out of high school back in 2007. After a few years in Boston’s minor league system, he was flipped to the Padres as one of the players in the December 2010 deal that sent Adrián González to the Sox.

Rizzo got to make his big league debut with the Friars in 2011 but didn’t hit the ground running. He stepped to the plate 153 times over 49 games but struck out 30.1% of the time and produced a .141/.281/.242 line.

Going into 2012, the Padres decided to go in a different direction. They sent Mat Latos to the Reds for four players, one of whom was Yonder Alonso. With Alonso set to cover first base in San Diego, they then sent Rizzo and right-hander Zach Cates to the Cubs for righty Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na.

That gambit clearly didn’t pan out for  San Diego. While Cashner had some modest success with the Padres, Alonso never found his power stroke at Petco Park and wound up delivering average offense over parts of four seasons. Yasmani Grandal, also acquired in that swap, struggled in San Diego before being sent to the Dodgers as part of the Matt Kemp trade.

Meanwhile, as all that played out, Rizzo broke out as one of the top first basemen in Major League Baseball. In parts of 10 seasons with the Cubs from 2012-21, Rizzo batted a combined .272/.372/.489 with 242 home runs. He made three All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves, won a Silver Slugger and garnered MVP votes in five consecutive seasons — including a pair of consecutive fourth-place finishes in 2015-16, when he posted a combined .285/.386/.528 batting line (145 wRC+) and belted 63 home runs (31 in ’15, 32 in ’16). Rizzo struggled in the 2016 NLDS but erupted in both the NLCS and World Series, belting three homers and five doubles with an OPS north of 1.000 between those two series.

As that Cubs core continued to stall out over the years, however, the front office eventually determined there was a need for change. Rizzo, Bryant and Baez were all traded in the summer of 2021 — Baez to the Mets, Bryant to the Giants and Rizzo to the Yankees. Rizzo hit well for the Yankees down the stretch and stepped into a key leadership role, all of which convinced the team to re-sign him to a two-year deal with an option for a third season.

Rizzo went on to spend the final three full seasons of his career in the Bronx, hitting well in 2022 before slipping to about average in 2023 and struggling through injuries in 2024. His time in New York wasn’t nearly as productive, but he logged an overall .234/.326/.409 line as a Yankee and popped 32 home runs in his first full season in pinstripes.

All told, Rizzo’s excellent career will wrap up with a lifetime .261/.361/.467 batting line. He hit 303 home runs in the majors, scored 922 runs, plated 965 runs and even swiped 72 bases. Rizzo is one of just 164 players in major league history to reach 300 career home runs. His 338 doubles rank 352nd all-time, tied with Brady Anderson, Matt Williams, Robin Ventura and the aforementioned Kemp.

Rizzo also tallied 241 postseason plate appearances, and while his .225/.328/.397 line doesn’t stand up to his regular-season excellence, that’s skewed by a brutal showing in the 2015 playoffs. Starting with that NLCS breakout in ’16, Rizzo hit .260/.367/.455 in his final 180 turns at the plate in the playoffs.

Through an early-career extension with the Cubs and a free-agent deal to re-sign with the Yankees in the 2021-22 offseason, Rizzo earned more than $127MM in salary over parts of 14 seasons. FanGraphs valued his career at 35.9 wins above replacement, while Baseball-Reference is even more bullish at 40.4 WAR. Rizzo isn’t likely to be Cooperstown-bound, but he’ll be remembered as a cornerstone piece in an iconic era of Cubs franchise lore and a solid veteran pickup who helped drive some competitive Yankees clubs. Best wishes to Rizzo and his family in whatever the next chapter holds.

Marlins Notes: Stowers, Norby, Pauley, Myers

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It’s been nearly a month since Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers was sidelined by side strain, and he actually began a rehab assignment on September 5 at the Triple-A level. Unfortunately, that September 5 game remains his most recent appearance after he was sidelined by a right oblique strain. According to Kevin Barral of Fish On First, manager Clayton McCullough relayed to reporters yesterday that he isn’t “exactly sure” how long Stowers will be shut down for, and that a clear timetable might not be available until after Stowers has had a few more days of downtime.

With so few days left in the regular season and the Marlins an insurmountable nine games back in the Wild Card race, there appears to be a real chance that Stowers’s 2025 season has come to a close. McCullough acknowledged as much yesterday, telling reporters (including Barral) that “we know where we’re at in the calendar.” If Stowers’s first full season as a Marlin is in fact over, it’s still hard to call it anything other than a massive success. The 27-year-old emerged as a core piece for Miami this year as he slashed .288/.368/.544 with 25 homers, 21 doubles, and 3 triples across 117 games. It was enough to earn Stowers an All-Star nod, and he’s sure to be a fixture of the club’s outfield mix next year as well.

Turning away from Stowers, the Marlins provided plenty of updates (as relayed by MLB.com) about other injured hitters today. Infielder Graham Pauley began a rehab assignment at Triple-A today as he recovers from an oblique strain suffered last month. Tomorrow, meanwhile, will see both infielder Connor Norby and outfielder Dane Myers begin rehab assignments. Norby was sidelined by a quad strain just a few days ago, while Myers has been out of commission since late August due to an oblique strain of his own.

Of that trio, Pauley is having the best season at the plate. That’s not saying very much, as the left-handed utility man is slashing .229/.310/.371 in 159 plate appearances across 54 games for the big league Marlins this year. Norby, meanwhile, has posted only slightly weaker numbers in more of a regular role. He’s slashed .247/.298/.373 in 295 trips to the plate this year while battling injuries, including a hamate fracture that required surgery back in July. He had looked a lot better after returning from that surgery, but his burgeoning hot streak was cut short at just five games by his aforementioned quad ailment. As for Myers, the 29-year-old has hit just .233/.292/.325 in 99 games this year, but he has swiped 17 bases and played strong defense in center field.

Assuming none of them face setbacks like Stowers has, all three should be expected to return before the end of the year. Maximo Acosta, Xavier Edwards, and Javier Sanoja have mixed and matched at second and third base while Pauley and Norby have been out, with Otto Lopez at shortstop. That quartet will likely be forced to get the majority of their playing time up the middle as Pauley and Norby seem poised to reclaim their timeshare at the hot corner. Myers, meanwhile, has been overtaken on the depth chart by Jakob Marsee in center field but could still see some use off the bench or in the outfield corners.

Rays Notes: Ownership, Pepiot, Aranda

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The Rays are set to change hands any day now, as current owner Stuart Sternberg has agreed to a sell the franchise to a group led by Patrick Zalupski in a deal that’s expected to be finalized at some point this month. Since the announcement of that deal back in July, additional details about the deal have trickled out. One such detail is that Sternberg and other current members of his ownership group will retain a stake in the Rays for the time being after the sale.

Another emerged today when Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that Rick Workman has joined Zalupski’s prospective ownership group. Topkin writes that Workman’s move to purchase a stake in the Rays is both a significant shock and a major blow to the Orlando Dreamers group, which is committed to luring an expansion franchise to Orlando. Topkin suggests that Workman was viewed as an “anchor” investor for the group’s efforts to bring MLB to the city who would have been a candidate to serve as the controlling partner of a hypothetical Orlando MLB franchise. John Morgan, the group’s second-largest investor, has also departed the effort now that it appears likely that the Rays will remain in Tampa.

According to a statement from MLB Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, who serves as an MLB ambassador for the Dreamers, the organization was “surprised” when Workman conveyed that he plans to invest in the Rays, but emphasized that Workman “did not in any way suggest concerns” regarding the Dreamers initiative. Dreamers co-founder Jim Schnorf goes on to suggest that the 70-year-old Workman may have had a change of heart about waiting for the lengthy process of getting a team to Orlando, which would likely take years now that the Rays figure to stay in Tampa, and instead chose the more immediate option of joining Zalupski’s group.

Between the loss of multiple major investors and the likelihood that the Rays remain in Tampa, it’s becoming harder to imagine a team coming to Orlando any time soon. With that said, Schnorf noted that there are “multiple” other candidates to serve as control person of a hypothetical Dreamers franchise and that the initiative has no shortage of funding.

“No competing city can come close to matching our attributes in regards to stadium location, market size, population growth, tourism numbers, tourist development taxes, and strength and growth of the local economy,” Schnorf said. “Orlando remains the only fully-ready solution for any MLB situation in need, whether via relocation of an existing franchise, or one of the planned expansion slots.”

Turning to on-the-field news, Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot was scratched from his scheduled start today with what the club referred to as “general fatigue.” Pepiot, 28, has thrown 163 innings across 29 starts this year. That’s roughly 30 innings more than his previous career high, which was set last year and was itself 30 innings more than his career high before that. With the righty in uncharted territory innings-wise and Tampa’s playoff hopes all but scuttled, it might seem reasonable to expect Pepiot to sit the rest of the season out. That’s not necessarily the case, however, as MLB.com’s Joey Pollizze relays that Pepiot told reporters he expects to pitch again this year. The Rays went with a bullpen game to fill Pepiot’s spot in the rotation today, with Ian Seymour, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, and Adrian Houser set to go the next four days, so the club won’t have to make a decision on Pepiot until their September 15 game against Toronto.

Turning to the lineup, Topkin relays that (according to manager Kevin Cash) first baseman Jonathan Aranda went for a checkup today as he nurses the fractured wrist that sent him to the injured list on August 1. Aranda is progressing well, according to Cash, and has already begun hitting off a tee and playing catch as he starts to rehab his ailing wrist. It’s still not clear if Aranda will have time to return before the end of the season, but the update is nonetheless encouraging about his ability to put together a normal offseason and enter Spring Training in a strong position for 2026. The 27-year-old Aranda enjoyed a breakout season at this dish this year and slashed .316/.394/.478 across 103 games while splitting time between first base and DH. It was a strong enough performance to earn Aranda the first All-Star nod of his career, and he figures to be a major contributor to the Rays for years to come given that he won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2027 season.

Xander Bogaerts Cleared To Resume Baseball Activities

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Xander Bogaerts has been cleared for baseball activity and has begun his rehab process, according to Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union Tribune. Bogaerts has been sidelined since August 29 after he suffered a fractured foot after fouling a ball of his foot a few days earlier.

Bogaerts, 33 in October, was in the midst of an up-and-down season with the Padres prior to his injury. After a down season last year, Bogaerts struggled through the first two-plus months of the year, and on June 17 saw his slash line drop to a paltry .227/.304/.311 through 286 plate appearances. Between that and his rough 2024 campaign, many around the game were starting to worry for the Padres’ ability to get much of anything out of the 11-year contract they signed him to prior to the 2023 campaign. Fortunately, he’s looked more like his old self since then, and has hit .304/.360/.473 with 24 extra-base hits and a 16.1% strikeout rate in his last 248 plate appearances.

That’s slightly better than his career slash line of .288/.350/.446, and offered plenty of optimism regarding Bogaerts’s ability to play up to his career norms moving forward. He even made real strides defensively at shortstop, posting a +7 Outs Above Average despite historically being viewed as a lackluster defender. Bogaerts’s resurgence provided plenty of optimism for the Padres’ ability to compete with the Dodgers down the stretch and into the postseason this year, but last month’s foot injury seemed to put all of that to a halt.

From the very start of the veteran’s recovery process, Padres brass have indicated they expected Bogaerts to be able to contribute in the postseason this year. The implication there, of course, was that the remainder regular season was more or less off the table for the veteran. For Bogaerts to be resuming baseball activities this quickly suggests some reason for optimism that he’ll be able to return, if not by the final game of the regular season, then in time for the Wild Card Series, where the Padres figure to face off against one of the Cubs, or Mets barring a surprise change in seeding. If the regular season ended today, San Diego would face Chicago in a three-game set at Wrigley Field.

Of course, it should be noted that sort of timeline would require Bogaerts to continue rehabbing at a fairly aggressive pace without suffering any setbacks. While adding Bogaerts back to the middle of a lineup that has relied on Jose Iglesias and his 66 wRC+ to be the primary answer at shortstop in his absence would be a huge boost for the Padres, they’re still not exactly hurting for offensive contributors after bringing in both Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn at this year’s trade deadline. Those additions have been enough to make San Diego the fifth-best offensive in the NL since the deadline, which should be enough to make them a formidable opponent given their dominant bullpen led by Mason Miller and Robert Suarez as well as a rotation that figures to feature Michael King, Nick Pivetta, and Dylan Cease.

Luis Robert Jr. “Running Out Of Time” To Return In 2025

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The White Sox haven’t officially declared center fielder Luis Robert Jr. out for the remainder of the season, but it seems that a return to the field is in doubt. Manager Will Venable told reporters (including James Fegan of Sox Machine) that Robert is “probably running out of time” to return to the field before the end of the season, as the early days of his recovery process haven’t gone well enough to create much optimism about a quick return to action.

Robert, 28, suffered a grade 2 hamstring strain in late August and has been sidelined ever since. The mercurial center fielder is just two years removed from an All-Star appearance amid a dominant five-win season, but his career has been marred with injuries and inconsistency. After playing in just 166 total games between the 2021 and ’22 campaigns, Robert has slumped badly in each of the last two seasons while battling more injuries.

In 210 games since the start of 2024, he’s hit just .223/.288/.372 with a wRC+ of 83. While he’s stolen an impressive 56 bases in that time, including 33 this year, he’s struck out at a 29.6% clip without offering quite enough power or patience at the plate to justify those high strikeout rates. While he once earned a Gold Glove award for his excellent defense in center field, that aspect of his game has regressed considerably in recent years as well. He was worth just +1 OAA last year, and while that figure has rebounded to +7 in 2025 he’s been worth +0 DRS this year after posting a +1 the year prior.

Between Robert’s injuries, lower power production, lesser defense, and high strikeout rates, his value on the market has plummeted over the past two years. While the White Sox have resisted trading him even amid their rebuild as they’ve refused to part with him for less than what they view as his fair market value, other teams have begun to view Robert as a player on an underwater contract due to his flaws and inconsistency. When Robert remained in Chicago following this year’s trade deadline, many assumed that would mean he’d depart the White Sox without the club recouping anything at all for him, seeing as this is the final guaranteed year of his contract.

That may not prove to be the case, however, as the White Sox maintain that they intend to pick up his $20MM club option for the 2026 season. That’s not an entirely unreasonable decision given Robert’s past successes and his .293/.349/.459 slash line since the start of July, but that sample makes up just 37 games and his latest injury only serves as a reminder of how unreliable his presence in the lineup has been for Chicago in recent years. Chicago will presumably be open to moving Robert once again this offseason, assuming they do pick up his option but, unless they have a change of heart about their strategy when shopping him or the franchise finds a way to compete next year, it seems likely that they’ll enter the 2026 season banking on a big first half from Robert in order to maximize his trade value at next year’s trade deadline.

Dodgers Activate Tommy Edman From Injured List

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6:22pm: Manager Dave Roberts tells reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) this afternoon that Edman, who is in center field today, may be on the grass on a regular basis going forward against left-handed pitching. He added that Edman could also see time at second base depending on how he looks running full-speed following his ankle injury.

5:39pm: Dodgers utility man Tommy Edman is being activated from the injured list today, the club announced today. Rookie center fielder Justin Dean was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move to make room for Edman on the roster.

Edman, 30, joined the Dodgers in a three-team trade with the White Sox and Cardinals last year. In 123 regular season games since then, Edman has slashed .231/.285/.403 with 18 homers, nine steals, and a 17.9% strikeout rate in 485 plate appearances. That’s good for only a wRC+ of 90, although it’s worth noting that Edman hit .328/.354/.508 during the Dodgers’ World Series run last year and even earned NLCS MVP honors for his work against the Mets.

The switch-hitter was signed to an extension during the offseason that guaranteed him $74MM over five seasons. That might seem like a hefty price to pay for a player who is typically below average offensively, but Edman makes up for his less than impactful bat by being a Gold Glove caliber defender capable of playing virtually any position on the diamond. He’s primarily played second base and shortstop throughout his career, but also has more than 600 innings of work both in center field and at third base over the course of his career.

After splitting time fairly evenly between shortstop and center field last year, Edman has mostly played second base with semi-regular reps in center and at the hot corner during the 2025 campaign. That’s when he hasn’t been on the injured list, as the Dodgers have needed to get through much of the season without him on the roster due to a pair of ankle injuries. The most recent occurred in early August and has left him shelved for just over a month. Now that he’s healthy, he joins a Dodgers lineup that also recently saw Will Smith and Max Muncy some back from injuries of their own.

With both Edman and Muncy back in the fold to handle regular duties at second and third base, that could leave rookie Hyeseong Kim without a regular position in the lineup. The Dodgers have at times in recent weeks suggested that Kim could get looks in left field over struggling veteran Michael Conforto. Perhaps that will come to pass now that Edman has returned to bump Kim off the keystone, given his 78 wRC+ on the year and similarly mediocre performance in recent weeks. Regardless of what sort of domino effects Edman’s return from the injured list might have on the Dodgers’ lineup down the stretch, it can only be a good thing for Los Angeles to have a deeper cache of options from which to work as they look to stave off the Padres in the NL West and defend their 2024 World Series championship in October.

As for Dean, the 28-year-old rookie has appeared in 18 games with the Dodgers this year. That work has almost exclusively been as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, as Dean has just two MLB plate appearances to his name that saw him go 0-for-2 with one strikeout, though he is 1-for-1 on the basepaths in the majors. A 17th rounder plucked by the Braves organization during the 2018 draft, Dean has parts of four seasons at Triple-A under his belt where he’s slashed .233/.340/.350 with 57 steals in 69 attempts. He’ll head back to the minor leagues for the time being, but could still be an option for the Dodgers off the bench later this year if the need for a speedster arises.

Astros Place Luis Garcia On IL Due To Elbow Discomfort

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The Astros have placed right-hander Luis Garcia on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow discomfort, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Fellow righty Nick Hernandez has been recalled as the corresponding move.

At this point, it’s unclear how severe this elbow issue is, but it’s an ominous development. Garcia just returned from an absence of more than two years related to that elbow. He had undergone Tommy John surgery in 2023. He tried to get back on the mound in 2024 but repeatedly hit setbacks, eventually missing that entire season. Here in 2025, he was on the IL until just over a week ago.

Garcia took the ball on September 1st against the Angels, his first big league game since May of 2023. That start went well, as he allowed three earned runs over six innings. He made a second start against the Blue Jays yesterday but his velocity was noticeably down. He averaged 91.4 miles per hour against the Angels. He was largely in the 93-94 mph range earlier in his career but that drop wasn’t necessarily a flag. Pitchers sometimes return before they are back to 100% strength and Garcia had spoken of his belief that more velocity was to come. Instead, his fastball velo dropped to 90.2 mph against Toronto. In the second inning, he summoned the training staff to the mound and was quickly removed from the game.

Time will tell if this is another minor setback or something more serious. The fact that the Astros have quickly placed him on the IL doesn’t bode well for the short term. Even a minimum stint would extend into the final days of the regular season schedule. An absence of three weeks or more would push into October. It’s entirely possible his season is done, though the club will presumably release more info at some point.

Obviously, a more extreme outcome would be awful. At this point, another major elbow surgery would put his 2026 season in jeopardy. He’s already lost most of the 2023-2025 seasons. Another lengthy surgery rehab would give him a stretch of four years with each season either being totally or partially lost.

Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Garcia tossed 312 2/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average, 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. He also made seven postseason appearances in that span, helping the club win the 2022 World Series. Since then, as mentioned, he has hardly been on the mound.

The absences have cut into his earning power. He first qualified for arbitration going into 2024 and earned $1.875MM that year. After missing that entire campaign, he agreed to the same salary for 2025. Next year would be his final arb year before he’s slated for free agency. Given his very limited workload this year, he should be in line for effectively the same salary again in 2026. That’s barely above the league minimum and a fine price for Houston if they think he can get healthy. Though if he’s slated for another long absence, he would become a clear non-tender candidate.

For the Astros, this adds to their injury pile for the stretch run. They have already lost Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter to season-ending surgeries. Spencer Arrighetti is on the IL due to elbow inflammation and going for a second opinion. In the bullpen, Josh Hader, John Rooney, Kaleb Ort and Bennett Sousa are all on the IL. The position player group is without Isaac Paredes and others.

Despite all those injuries, the Astros are clinging to a narrow division lead. The still sit atop the American League West, but the Mariners are only one game back with the Rangers only 2.5 games behind. The Astros still have a very good shot at making the postseason but every new injury will make it more challenging to hang on.

Their rotation now consists of Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Jason Alexander and Cristian Javier. They have Lance McCullers Jr. and J.P. France in the bullpen and could put one of them in the rotation, though neither is having a great year. Colton Gordon is on the 40-man roster but was just optioned four days ago. He can’t be recalled until 15 days after that optioning unless directly replacing a player going on the IL. Non-roster options in Triple-A include Miguel Ullola, Ethan Pecko and Jose Fleury.

Photo courtesy of Erik Williams, Imagn Images

Cubs To Move Javier Assad To Bullpen

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The Cubs are going to welcome right-hander Jameson Taillon back from the injured list today, which will bump fellow righty Javier Assad to the bullpen, per Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Sharma also lists Michael Soroka as someone who could help the bullpen down the stretch, suggesting he’ll likely end up in a relief role when he comes off the injured list.

Assad, 28, was a solid member of the Chicago rotation last year. He made 29 starts, allowing 3.73 earned runs per nine innings. His 19.4% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate were a bit worse than league average but he had a decent 43.6% ground ball rate. He may have benefitted from a high strand rate of 80.3% but his 4.64 FIP and 4.72 SIERA still pointed to him being capable of passable work as a big league starter.

But this year has been challenging. Oblique issues kept him on the injured list until August. He has since made five starts with a 4.62 ERA. His walk rate and grounder rate have improved in that small sample but he has only struck out 13.2% of opponents.

It’s not a drastic drop-off overall but the Cubs don’t feel Assad is one of their five best rotation options. When Taillon returns, he will slot in alongside Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton and Colin Rea. Boyd and Horton are both having really strong seasons. Imanaga isn’t pitching as well as last year but has still managed to post a 3.21 ERA. Rea and Taillon are solid back-end options with ERAs of 4.20 and 4.15 respectively.

Assad will therefore end up in the bullpen, likely in long relief. The Cubs already have guys like Aaron Civale and Ben Brown capable of soaking up multiple innings from the bullpen but Assad will give them one more.

As for Soroka, his potential bullpen move is logical and should be more impactful. He had a lot of success in a relief role last year. He started 2024 in the White Sox’ rotation but ended up getting bumped to the bullpen. He finished out the year with 36 relief innings with a 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate. His 13% walk rate was certainly high but that kind of strikeout stuff made him an intriguing leverage relief option this winter.

He came into 2025 still with the hope of being a starter. He signed a one-year, $9MM deal with the Nationals and joined that club’s rotation. He had a decent 4.87 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate with Washington, though notable splits later in games. This year, he has held opponents to a .193/.250/.329 line when going through the order for the first time. That line jumps to .218/.302/.395 the second time through and then there’s a big spike to .319/.467/.574 for the first time through.

The Cubs acquired him at the deadline even though his velocity had been trending down throughout July. They nonetheless hoped to get a few starts out of him. But he made just one, lasting two innings, before a shoulder strain put him on the shelf. In his recent bullpen sessions, his velo has been back up to the mid-90s. He’s set to go on a rehab assignment this week and could rejoin the big league club soon.

Given last year’s bullpen success, his third-time-through-the-order penalty and recent health concern, a bullpen move makes lot of sense. If he can posts some results similar to last year’s, he could jump into a leverage role. That would help the Cubs going into the stretch run, as they recently lost Daniel Palencia and Ryan Brasier to the IL due to a shoulder strain and groin strain respectively.

Photo courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images

Poll: Shota Imanaga’s Contract Option

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After being largely overshadowed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto when he was posted for MLB clubs during the 2023-24 offseason, southpaw Shota Imanaga landed with the Cubs on a deal that has worked out well for Chicago so far. Imanaga was an All-Star and the fifth-place finisher in NL Cy Young voting during his first season, and this year he’s chipped in a strong 3.21 ERA across his 22 starts. Chicago is squarely focused on October at the moment, with their first postseason berth since 2020 all but clinched. Once the postseason comes to an end and the offseason jumps to front of mind, however, the Cubs will face a significant decision regarding Imanaga because of the unusual nature of his contract.

Nominally, the contract is a four-year deal worth that guarantees the southpaw $53MM. That’s not quite how the contract actually works in practice. After the 2025 season, the Cubs face a decision on whether to pick up a three-year, $57MM club option that covers the 2026-28 seasons. If Chicago declines, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for 2026. If that player option is executed, then there’s another fork in the road ahead. After 2026, the Cubs would have to decide on a two-year, $42MM club option for 2027-28. If they decline that, Imanaga can pick up a $15MM player option for 2027.

All of that is to say that the Cubs are facing a significant decision this offseason. If they don’t exercise their three-year option on Imanaga’s services, he’s all but certain to decline that player option and return to free agency. One-year rolls of the dice on older players like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton last offseason cost $15MM, so it’s all but guaranteed that Imanaga could do better than that if he were to test free agency. The question then becomes if Chicago wants to keep Imanaga in the fold for the next three seasons for that aforementioned $57MM figure.

On the surface, that might appear to be an obvious choice. Imanaga is an All-Star with a career 3.04 ERA in the majors and is a big part of the Cubs’ success this year. A look at Imanaga’s underlying numbers paints a slightly less certain picture, and that’s especially true for this season. A hamstring injury cost Imanaga nearly two months, so he is not qualified for the ERA title. That said, among 92 starters with at least 120 innings, the lefty’s 4.55 FIP is tied with teammate Colin Rea for 65th. His 4.57 xFIP ranks 73rd, and 4.43 SIERA ranks 61st.

With Imanaga ranking in the bottom third of the league among starters this year by so many metrics, it’s worth at least looking under the hood to see what’s causing that downturn in peripherals. Only 15 starters in baseball (again, min. 120 innings) have a higher opponents’ barrel rate than Imanaga, and that’s left him very susceptible to the long ball. Just 14 starters in that group have allowed more home runs, despite Imanaga’s relatively small volume of innings. His ERA would be much higher without the fourth-highest strand rate in that set of starters.

Imanaga also has a .209 BABIP that’s the lowest among that same group by nearly 20 points and 55 points lower than his own figure last season. He’s benefited from some pretty significant luck when it comes to batted balls and sequencing. Imanaga’s four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper have all lost a tick of velocity relative to last year. He now sits just 90.8 mph on average with the heater, and while velocity isn’t necessarily a requirement to find success in the majors, the decrease is somewhat concerning when looking at his 20.2% strikeout rate — down from 25.1% last season.

Are those red flags concerning enough that the Cubs should really consider letting him walk? While much of Imanaga’s success at beating his peripherals this year can be chalked up to good fortune, consideration must also be made for Chicago’s excellent defense. The Cubs figure to have both Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field and Dansby Swanson at shortstop well past the end of the 2028 season, and with elite defensive talents working behind Imanaga it’s feasible that he could continue beating those peripheral numbers.

Another consideration is the possibility that Imanaga’s underlying numbers could improve next season with a normal start to the season. Between the Cubs’ trip to Japan for a two-game set against the Dodgers and the lefty’s early hamstring ailment, Imanaga had an unusual start to 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked back up to 23.1% clip since since the All-Star break, and he actually punched out 26.2% of his opponents in August, so maybe that trend line could create some optimism.

Regardless of whether more strikeouts and stronger peripherals can be expected for Imanaga, there’s an argument that three years and $57MM is a solid value for even a middle-of-the-road starter on the current market. Talented arms with All-Star track records can make a pretty penny on an annual basis, even entering their age-32 seasons, as Imanaga will be next year.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Sonny Gray all secured $75MM over three years for contracts beginning at age 32 or later. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt landed $63MM guarantees over three-year terms heading into their age-34 seasons. The current $19MM AAV on the three years covered by that club option isn’t much larger than the $17.5MM AAV the Yankees paid a 33-year-old Marcus Stroman over two years and coming off a season with lesser results.

While Justin Steele will return from UCL surgery next year and Cade Horton has emerged as a long-term rotation piece, players like Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are set to depart the Cubs rotation after 2026. Having another arm locked up for the long haul could have value for the Cubs so that they aren’t scrambling for innings going forward.

What do MLBTR readers think the Cubs should do about Imanaga’s contract option? Should they pick up that three years and $57MM for Imanaga’s age-32 through age-34 seasons, or should they bet that they can do better and give him the chance to walk? Have your say in the poll below:

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