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Christian Roa

Marlins Outright Christian Roa

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The Marlins sent right-hander Christian Roa outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to the MLB.com transaction log. That drops the team’s 40-man roster count to 37. Teams need to decide by Tuesday which prospects they want to add to the 40-man to keep out of the Rule 5 draft.

Miami just grabbed Roa off waivers from the Reds two weeks ago. They presumably did so with the hope of getting him through waivers themselves. They succeeded in that bid and can retain him as non-roster depth (assuming he goes unselected in the Rule 5). Roa had never previously been outrighted and does not have the requisite service time to elect free agency.

Roa was Cincinnati’s second-round pick in 2020. The Texas A&M product has yet to make his major league debut. The Reds selected his contract last offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They kept him on optional assignment to Triple-A Louisville for most of the season. Roa struggled to a 5.55 earned run average in 48 2/3 innings across 23 appearances. His season ended with a shoulder strain.

That clearly wasn’t a great showing, but Roa ranked among the Reds’ top 30 prospects at Baseball America entering 2024. He’d been a starter for most of his career before moving to the bullpen this year. Prospect evaluators have raised that possibility for a while because of his subpar control. Entering the season, BA credited Roa with a decent four-pitch mix headlined by an above-average slider. He’ll probably get a non-roster invite to big league Spring Training.

Marlins Claim Christian Roa

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The Marlins announced that they have claimed right-hander Christian Roa off waivers from the Reds. Christina De Nicola of MLB.com relayed the claim on X prior to the official announcement. The Fish also announced that right-handers Shaun Anderson, Darren McCaughan and Adam Oller as well as infielder/outfielder David Hensley have been outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville. Oller is expected to elect free agency and pursue opportunities in Asia, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 on X.

Roa, 25, was on Cincinnati’s 60-day injured list but the IL goes away five days after the World Series. Rather than reinstating him to the 40-man roster, the Reds evidently tried to pass him through waivers but the Marlins grabbed him.

The righty was a second-round pick of the Reds and has been a notable prospect in the club’s system since then. He has racked up a fair number of strikeouts as a minor leaguer but also given out a large number of walks. He has thrown 318 2/3 innings in his minor league career with a 4.46 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 14.3% walk rate.

He was added to Cincinnati’s 40-man roster a year ago to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He spent this year pitching in Triple-A with a 5.55 ERA. His walk rate was still high at 13.5% and his strikeouts dropped to a rate of 21.2%. In August, the Reds recalled him to the majors and added him to their 60-day IL with a right shoulder sprain in order to open up a 40-man roster spot.

The Marlins will take a shot on him and see if they can help him rein in that control a bit. Roa still has two more option seasons and less than a year of service time. For a rebuilding club like the Marlins, they can take their time and see if the Roa project can bear some fruit for them down the line.

The four outrighted players were all fairly recent additions to the Miami roster. The club suffered a high number of injuries in 2024 and was often grabbing players from everywhere in order to keep the roster filled as they played out the string on the campaign.

Anderson was designated for assignment by the Rangers at the end of May and got flipped to the Marlins for cash. He posted an 8.27 ERA in 16 1/3 innings for the Fish after that. McCaughan was claimed off waivers from the Guardians in July and went on to throw 36 innings for Miami with a 5.75 ERA. Oller signed a minor league deal with the club in July, later having his contract selected to throw 42 1/3 innings with a 5.31 ERA. Hensley was claimed off waivers from the Astros at the end of July and then hit .212/.293/.288 in 23 games as a Marlin.

The three pitchers have previous career outrights and therefore have the right to elect free agency. This is Hensley’s first outright but she should have the right to elect minor league free agency as a player with seven years on the farm.

Reds Select Julian Aguiar

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The Reds announced today that they have selected the contract of right-hander Julian Aguiar. Righty Casey Legumina was optioned to open an active roster spot. To get Aguiar onto the 40-man, the Reds recalled righty Christian Roa and placed him on the 60-day injured list with a right shoulder sprain.

Aguiar, 23, was a 12th-round selection of the Reds in the 2021 draft. In 2022, he tossed 96 1/3 innings, mostly at the Single-A level but also with a brief look at High-A. He allowed 3.46 earned runs per nine innings, struck out 27.6% of batters faced, limited walks to a 6.6% clip and got grounders on more than half of the balls that were put in play against him. Last year, he made 25 starts between High-A and Double-A. In his 125 innings, he posted a 2.95 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and again got hitters to hit the ball into the ground about half the time.

Coming into 2024, Baseball America ranked him the #14 prospect in the Reds’ system. FanGraphs had him a bit higher, putting him at #7 in early April. BA highlights his pitch mix, describing it as consisting of a four-seamer, two-seamer, curveball, slider and changeup. FG doesn’t mention the two-seamer and also characterizes the slider and curveball as the same breaking ball, just shaped slightly differently, though they admit that this essentially leads to Aguiar having two different breaking balls even if they are the same speed.

Here in 2024, Aguiar has continued posting some decent numbers, though not quite as strong as previous years. He has thrown 116 1/3 innings over 22 starts between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.79 ERA. His 6% walk rate still demonstrates good control but his 19.7% strikeout rate is well below his previous two seasons. His ground ball rate has also been just below 40% at both levels this year, a drop from what he was able to achieve at the lower levels.

The Reds have Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson on the 60-day injured list. The former has a right elbow strain and an uncertain timeline. The latter has a shoulder strain and could be nearing a rehab assignment, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer on X, but hasn’t pitched in the big leagues yet this year. Even if he is able to start a rehab assignment soon, he’ll likely need a few weeks of ramp-up to get into game shape. Righty Hunter Greene landed on the 15-day IL this weekend with some elbow soreness and the club seems optimistic he can return after roughly a minimum stint, but it’s still a big blow to the rotation mix given that he’s pitched well enough to be in the Cy Young conversation this year.

Amid those injuries, the rotation is down to a core duo of Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott, along with swingmen Carson Spiers and Nick Martinez. Now they will be adding the rookie Aguiar into the mix. The Reds are six games back of a playoff spot at this point and clearly have at least some hope of making the playoffs as they recently claimed infielder Amed Rosario off waivers. Rosario is a veteran on a one-year deal and has no future impact, so they wouldn’t have made that move if they had given up on the season.

Perhaps Aguiar will get a few turns through the rotation to see how his stuff plays against big league hitters, at least until Greene or Williamson are able to come off the IL. The club also has Lyon Richardson and Connor Phillips on the 40-man roster but Richardson has a 4.58 ERA and 13.4% walk rate in Triple-A this year. Phillips, meanwhile, has a ghastly ERA of 10.11 in his 14 minor league starts and hasn’t pitched in official game action since June. Non-roster options like Justus Sheffield, Connor Overton and Brett Kennedy are either injured, putting up poor numbers or both. The club has an off-day on August 26 but then has a double-header on August 30, meaning they don’t have a ton of leeway with their rotation at the moment.

As for Roa, 25, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has been on optional assignment all year and still hasn’t made his major league debut. He last pitched August 10 and it appears this shoulder strain will end his season. Based on this transaction, he won’t be eligible to return until the middle of October. That’s not a pleasant outcome for him but the silver lining is that he’ll now get a bit of major league service time and pay while spending the rest of the season on the injured list.

Reds Select Rece Hinds, Christian Roa, Jacob Hurtubise

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The Reds announced that they have added three players to their 40-man roster ahead of the 5:00 pm CT Rule 5 deadline: outfielder Rece Hinds, right-hander Christian Roa, and outfielder Jacob Hurtubise. Their 40-man is now full.

Hinds, 23, is the Reds’ No. 10 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and most sources agree he’ll be ready to make his big league debut at some point in 2024. In 109 games with Double-A Chattanooga last season, he showed off his power potential, crushing 23 home runs and 58 extra-base hits. He ran well for a slugging outfielder, too, swiping 20 bags and legging out six triples. However, the righty batter also struck out in a third of his plate appearances, so he’ll need to improve his plate discipline if he wants to put his power on display at the major league level.

As for his defense, Hinds made the move from third base to the outfield in 2022, and he seems to have adjusted well. He has spent time in both corners, but his best asset is his powerful arm, so right field seems like the better fit. The Reds have a glut of talented young players all over the diamond, but there is less of a logjam in the outfield, so there should be room for Hinds if he cuts down on the strikeouts and keeps hitting bombs in the minors.

Roa, 24, struggled after his promotion to Triple-A last summer, seeing his strikeout rate fall and his home run rate rise. At the same time, the 2020 second-round pick showed off some phenomenal strikeout stuff in 2023, striking out 33.7% of batters faced in 13 starts at Double-A Chattanooga and 28.6% of batters faced in 15 games (12 starts) at Triple-A Louisville. If he can rein in the walks (16.6% walk rate across Double- and Triple-A), he could make his way to the majors at some point next season. Presumably, he will serve as rotation depth at Triple-A, something the Reds have no shortage of. In addition to Roa, the team has Lyon Richardson, Connor Phillips, Levi Stoudt, and Carson Spiers on the 40-man roster, all of whom made starts for the big league team in 2023 with limited success.

Hurtubise, 25, doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of either Hinds or Roa, but he might have been an appealing target in the Rule 5 Draft following his strong performance in 2023. In 83 games at Double-A, he slashed .306/.453/.492 with a 159 wRC+, and he kept mashing after a mid-August promotion to Triple-A, slashing .390/.537/.460 the rest of the way. While he is surely due for some significant regression, his plate discipline was genuinely impressive, and his speed is the real deal. He is primarily a corner outfielder, but he has experience in center as well, so he profiles as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

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