NL Notes: Ethier, Taillon, Lester
The Dodgers are reportedly willing to pay half of Andre Ethier‘s salary in a trade, but it’s still hard to figure out where he might be able to find regular playing time, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs writes. Ethier is nearly 33 and profiles as a below-average player, and half of the $56MM remaining on his contract is still more than he would likely get on the open market. The Braves are one team who could conceivably use him. The Phillies might work if Ethier weren’t left-handed, and the Rangers could make sense if they didn’t already have so many corner outfield options. Overall, though, there shouldn’t be much of a market. Here’s more from the National League.
- Top Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon is scheduled to face live batters next week for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Taillon, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft, only has six career starts at Triple-A, and the Pirates tend to be cautious about promoting their prospects. Health permitting, though, he could make his big-league debut at some point in the second half of the season.
- The signing of Jon Lester helped change the Cubs‘ reputation, Paul Sullivan of the Boston Herald writes. The Cubs will lean heavily on young players this season, but Lester says there’s no reason not to expect those players to win right out of the gate. “Time to grow up sometime,” says Lester. “When I played in Boston we didn’t have time to grow up. You just had to show up and play, and each year you’re expected to win.”
Royals Sign Chris Young
The Royals have announced that they’ve signed pitcher Chris Young to a one-year, big-league deal. Young will receive $675K in base salary, plus up to $5.325MM in bonuses. Those bonuses will be for roster days, innings pitched and starts, with Young receiving $250K on Opening Day and then $250K for 30 days, 60 days and 90 days on the roster. To clear space for Young on their 40-man roster, the Royals moved Kris Medlen to the 60-day disabled list.
Young, 35, enjoyed a comeback season with the Mariners in 2014, posting a 3.65 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 165 innings after not appearing in the big leagues in 2013. He has obvious weaknesses — he doesn’t throw hard, doesn’t strike out many batters and allows tons of fly balls, suggesting he won’t be able to sustain his relatively low ERA from last season. As Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan tweets, though, the Royals’ strong defensive outfield should help Young. Also, he could benefit from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, which has stifled home runs lately. Young has suffered from injuries in recent years, but the Royals’ guaranteed commitment to him is minimal, so they’re insulated from significant risk.
It’s unclear how Young will fit on the Royals’ roster. He’s surely most useful as a starter, but he doesn’t appear likely to supplant anyone in the Royals’ current rotation of Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, Jason Vargas, Edinson Volquez and Jeremy Guthrie. He could, instead, find a home in the Royals’ bullpen, perhaps working in long relief until or unless he’s needed in the rotation.
For Young to receive a big-league deal at this point in the offseason qualifies as a minor coup. He had been one of only a few significant free-agent starters remaining on the market, along with Kevin Correia and Randy Wolf.
Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star was the first to tweet Young’s base salary and maximum incentive earnings. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick and MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweeted key details about the structure of Young’s contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Hector Olivera Expects To Receive $70MM-Plus
Cuban infielder Hector Olivera‘s representatives are telling teams their client will receive a contract of at least $70MM, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (all Twitter links). If in fact Olivera receives $70MM, Rosenthal says, that would suggest that at least the top bidding team is unconcerned about a recent report (which Olivera’s camp denies) that Olivera has UCL damage — paying $70MM to a player who will soon be 30 with the idea that he won’t play the first year of his contract seems overly ambitious.
Rosenthal suggests that if the injury means Olivera has to miss time, one team that could wait on him is the Dodgers, who have no obvious spot for him in 2015 but could have several infield openings the following year, including second base, which is currently occupied by Howie Kendrick. Olivera officially became a free agent yesterday. He has been connected to the Mariners, Braves, Yankees, Padres, Giants and Athletics as well as the Dodgers.
Price Expects Tigers To Initiate Extension Talks Before Free Agency
Tigers ace David Price reiterates that he’s interested in an extension, and says he expects Detroit to approach him about a new deal before he hits free agency, James Schmehl of MLive.com writes. “I doubt it’ll be that long,” says Price.
Price confirms that there have been no talks between the two sides to date. He has repeatedly said, however, that he would be interested in an extension. Price will earn $19.75MM (a record-setting figure for a pitcher settling an arbitration case) in 2015 before potentially becoming eligible for free agency following the season. If the Tigers let him get that far, he’ll join an excellent list of free-agent pitchers that includes Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Rick Porcello, Doug Fister and perhaps Zack Greinke.
Yu Darvish Has UCL Sprain
Rangers ace Yu Darvish has a UCL sprain in his elbow and could have Tommy John surgery, Evan Grant of Dallas Morning News (Twitter links). Darvish had an MRI on Friday after experiencing soreness. “I will be disappointed if I have to miss the season but want to look at all options, including getting a second opinion,” says Darvish. Even if Darvish opts for rest instead of surgery, however, the Rangers expect him to miss at least four months, Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets.
Losing Darvish for the season would, obviously, be a huge blow to a Rangers team that was decimated by injuries, including injuries to starting pitchers like Derek Holland, Martin Perez and Matt Harrison, last season. It’s unclear if the Rangers might make a move to replace him. Before acquiring Yovani Gallardo, they had been rumored to be in talks with the Phillies involving Cole Hamels. In the meantime, with Darvish out, Holland and Gallardo will top a Rangers rotation that’s also likely to include Colby Lewis and Ross Detwiler.
Darvish also missed time late last season with an elbow injury. When healthy, he was as good as ever, posting a 3.06 ERA with 3.1 BB/9 and a terrific 11.3 K/9 over 144 1/3 innings. The 28-year-old was the AL Cy Young runner-up after striking out 277 batters in 2013.
Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds’ offseason was highlighted by two solid trades of starting pitchers who were about to approach free agency, but the team still could face tough times ahead as its core continues to age.
Major League Signings
- Burke Badenhop, RP: One year, $2.5MM ($1MM plus $1.5MM buyout on $2.5MM 2016 mutual option)
- Total spend: $2.5MM
Notable Minor League Signings
Trades And Claims
- Traded P Mat Latos to Marlins for P Anthony DeSclafani and C Chad Wallach
- Traded P Alfredo Simon to Tigers for SS Eugenio Suarez and P Jonathon Crawford
- Traded P Ben Lively to Phillies for OF Marlon Byrd
- Traded OF Chris Heisey to Dodgers for P Matt Magill
- Claimed P Keyvius Sampson from Padres
Extensions
- C Devin Mesoraco: four years, $28MM
- 3B Todd Frazier: two years, $12MM
Notable Losses
- Latos, Simon, Heisey, Ryan Ludwick, Jack Hannahan, Ramon Santiago, Logan Ondrusek
Needs Addressed
The Reds’ most pressing problem was the impending departure of much of their rotation next winter, and they addressed that issue by trading Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, both of whom could join Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake on the free agent market after the season. With over $82MM already on the books for 2016 (much of that coming from long-running contracts for Joey Votto and Homer Bailey), the Reds were in a tough spot from which the Latos and Simon deals helped remove them. They also saved about $14MM for 2015, given the two pitchers’ salaries in their last years of arbitration.
The Latos deal, in particular, will help, in that the Reds got a young starting pitcher in Anthony DeSclafani who has six full years of control left and should be able to help right away, perhaps developing into a middle-of-the-rotation type. Along with Bailey, Tony Cingrani and top prospect Robert Stephenson, DeSclafani will help the Reds adjust to life without Latos and Simon, and, perhaps eventually, without Cueto and Leake as well. The Reds also got Chad Wallach, a young catcher with a good eye at the plate who will likely start the season at High-A.
Jonathon Crawford, the pitcher the Reds received in the Simon trade, is further from the Majors, and is a bit of a project — his statistics in Class A last year were nothing to write home about, and most observers haven’t thought much of his changeup. His development will depend upon how well he’s able to use his other pitches to complement his plus fastball. The Reds also added Eugenio Suarez, a capable defensive shortstop who hit reasonably well in the minors and held his own in the big leagues as a 22-year-old last season. If Suarez can continue to improve, he’ll likely eventually replace Zack Cozart, whose subpar hitting mostly canceled out his plus defense last year.
Overall, that’s a good haul for Latos and Simon, particularly given that DeSclafani and Suarez might be able to help right away. Latos and Simon both had just one year of control left, and neither of them are aces — both of them had better ERAs than peripherals last year, and Simon, in particular, is a good bet to take a step backward next season. Latos also missed time in 2014 due to knee and elbow injuries. Whether the Reds will be able to keep Cueto and Leake beyond 2015 is an open question, but those two were probably the best pair of starters from among the four facing free agency, and the Reds got good value for the lesser pair.
The Reds also shipped outfielder Chris Heisey to the Dodgers for 25-year-old righty Matt Magill. Magill walked 6.3 batters per nine innings at Triple-A last season and doesn’t throw particularly hard, so he’s unlikely to contribute much. Heisey doesn’t hit well, although he’s a strong enough defender to be an asset, and his departure leaves the Reds’ rather thin outfield vulnerable if anyone is injured.
To bolster their bullpen, the Reds added righty Burke Badenhop on a one-year deal. Badenhop is a soft-tosser whose strikeout rate has shrunk over the past three seasons and whose xFIP was a run and a half behind his ERA last year, but at $2.5MM, the Reds didn’t overpay for a reliever who can limit walks and get bunches of ground balls.
The Reds also signed two core players, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco, to extensions. The Frazier contract was fairly routine — it’s a two-year pact that buys out only Frazier’s first two years of arbitration eligibility, tracking fairly closely to what his salaries would have been through the arbitration process in those two seasons. After it ends, the Reds will be able to take Frazier through arbitration once more. Frazier’s deal came in lieu of an extension to buy out free-agent seasons, but since Frazier is already 29, such a deal might not have been necessary anyway.
The Mesoraco deal is a more significant commitment. Like Frazier, Mesoraco was arbitration eligible for the first time. But Mesoraco’s contract buys out all three of his arbitration seasons, plus one year of free agency. Mesoraco and the Reds had already exchanged arbitration figures, and the midpoint of those two figures of $3.025MM would have given the two sides a rough guide to how much Mesoraco might have made through the arbitration process in 2015, 2016 and 2017.
The deal comes with risk for the Reds — Mesoraco has only had one excellent season, and by extending him, the team is gambling that his 2014 breakout is real, or mostly real. Mesoraco is also an injury risk, having missed time with hamstring problems in 2014. The Reds also didn’t get any club options. If Mesoraco keeps hitting, though, the deal will be a bargain — if we assume, somewhat conservatively, that Mesoraco would have made about $15MM in his arbitration seasons, the deal buys out Mesoraco’s age-30 season at $13MM, a good price for what might be a strong late-prime season for a quality catcher. And if Mesoraco can approximate his .273/.359/.534 2014 outburst in 2015 and 2016, he would have been able to get far more than $15MM total in his three arbitration seasons.
Questions Remaining
As a team in transition, the Reds have no shortage of questions. Many of their highest paid players (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips among them) either had injury or performance issues or both in 2014. It will be difficult for the Reds to compete in 2015 if those players don’t stay healthy this time, since the team doesn’t have much depth, particularly now that Heisey is gone.
Key bench player Skip Schumaker is coming off a poor .235/.287/.308 season upon which he doesn’t figure to improve much. Backup catcher Brayan Pena was little better, at .253/.291/.353. The fact that Schumaker and Pena were already under contract for 2015 likely meant that the Reds weren’t going to spend much of the offseason hunting for position players who weren’t starters, but even a better crop of minor-league free agents would have helped. The team’s position player depth in the high minors is nothing to write home about, and its top hitting prospects are far from the Majors. Fangraphs’ depth chart currently lists nine Reds position players — their eight starters, plus Suarez — who project to be more than a tenth of a win above replacement in 2015. That’s a shame, because given the Reds’ veteran-heavy lineup, good backup plans could really have come in handy.
When Reds GM Walt Jocketty worked for the Cardinals, he frequently built benches full of light-hitting players like Aaron Miles, Roger Cedeno, Kerry Robinson and Miguel Cairo. But at least in St. Louis, Jocketty could lean hard on stars like Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds year-in and year-out. Jocketty did the same with the 2014 Reds, depending on players like Votto and Phillips, and it didn’t work. As of this writing, Votto, who missed 100 games last season with a knee injury, still hasn’t appeared in Spring Training action, although he’s expected to do so Saturday. If the Reds are to be successful in 2015, they need him.
The Latos and Simon deals will help the Reds beyond this season, and probably aren’t even as detrimental for 2015 as they might initially appear, but they do leave the team’s rotation thinner than it had been before. Tony Cingrani will occupy one of the last two spots, and he’s excellent as a back-end option, although the Reds will hope he’s past the shoulder troubles that ended his 2014 season. (He’s currently pitching normally in Spring Training.) DeSclafani is the front-runner for the fifth spot. The Reds also aren’t sure whether Bailey will be ready for the beginning of the season after having forearm surgery last September, which could mean Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis gets starts in his absence.
Deal of Note
The Reds spent much of their offseason dealing veterans and reshaping their roster beyond 2015, but they went the opposite direction when they traded pitcher Ben Lively to the Phillies for outfielder Marlon Byrd. With the departure of Ryan Ludwick (who did little in two years in Cincinnati to prove he’s a starting outfielder going forward anyway), the Reds had a gaping hole in left field, and Byrd might be able to fill it capably, even at age 37. After a career year in 2013, his rate stats went backward in 2014, but he still hit 25 homers, a total he could match this season in a homer-happy ballpark like Cincinnati’s. If he stays healthy, the Reds will likely be happy to be on the hook for his $8MM 2016 team option, which will vest if he manages 550 plate appearances this season.
The quality of the trade, though, depends on Lively. The Reds know him better than anyone, and perhaps thought that his blend of reasonable stuff and deception wouldn’t be enough to succeed in the long term. Lively had an excellent first full pro season, though, and could be ready for the Majors by the end of this season or early next. He would have been a good arm for the Reds to have in their system as they prepare for life without many of their top starting pitchers. Perhaps the value of having a competitive 2015 team was worth the cost of losing Lively, but acquiring a relatively cheap free-agent outfielder, like Colby Rasmus, Nori Aoki or Michael Morse, might have made more sense.
Overview
Step back a bit, and the Reds still look like they could be very good. Cincinnati has a power-hitting catcher, a first baseman with a career .417 OBP, a star veteran second baseman, a third baseman who’s coming off a career year, and a center fielder (Billy Hamilton) who gives opposing catchers nightmares. They have one of the National League’s best starting pitchers in Cueto, and a terrifying closer (Aroldis Chapman) who joins Craig Kimbrel and Greg Holland among the best relievers of this decade so far. If everyone is healthy and performs at his career norms, that’s an excellent core.
A closer inspection, though, isn’t as kind. The Reds’ core is old enough and expensive enough that the team can’t necessarily fit many good complementary players into its budget. (That might not improve much in the coming years, either, with the $213MM remaining on Votto’s contract potentially causing the Reds huge headaches.) With a few obvious exceptions like Hamilton and Cingrani, the Reds’ farm system hasn’t developed the young players necessary to replace core pieces as they age. The team can’t necessarily count on Votto being healthy, and Phillips isn’t nearly as good as he once was. And Cueto is only under team control for one more year.
Perhaps a more aggressive route for the Reds this offseason would have been to trade Cueto and rebuild — one would think Cueto would have been able to land the Reds at least a couple top prospects, given his 2014 performance and ultra-cheap 2015 option ($10MM). The Phillies are having trouble getting the package they want for Cole Hamels, however, and James Shields lasted late into the winter on the free agent market. The Athletics’ return for Jeff Samardzija appears to have been relatively meager. Perhaps the Reds are gambling that they can get better value for Cueto at the deadline, or perhaps they’ll end up extending him (although it’s debatable whether a team in the Reds’ position should commit to what would presumably be a nine-figure contract that goes well into Cueto’s thirties).
In any case, the Reds appear to be in a holding pattern. This offseason’s Latos and Simon trades were steps toward a brighter future, but they were small ones, and the Byrd deal went in the opposite direction. There’s no rule stating that a team can only contend or only rebuild, and in fact many teams this offseason have pursued both goals at once. The Reds, though, don’t really seem to be doing either one. It wouldn’t be a miracle if they made the playoffs this year, but it would be a surprise, and as their core ages and departs, it’s unclear what’s on the horizon.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Week In Review: 2/28/15 – 3/6/15
Here’s a look back at a quiet week at MLBTR.
Signed / Agreed To Terms
- Rangers – P Joe Beimel (one year)
Designated For Assignment
- Mariners – IF Ji-Man Choi (link)
Outrighted
- Brewers – P Brooks Hall (link)
Released
- Orioles – P Suk-min Yoon (link)
- Tigers – P Joel Hanrahan (link)
Returned
- Rangers – Edgar Olmos (to Mariners – link)
Key Minor League Signings
- Cubs – P Phil Coke (link)
- Blue Jays – OF Dayan Viciedo (link)
- Dodgers – P Mike Adams (link)
- Giants – P Alfredo Aceves (link)
- Royals – IF Casey Kotchman (link)
- Braves – P Peter Moylan (link)
- Rays – P Jim Miller (link)
- Nationals – P Tony Gwynn, Jr. (link)
Giants Sign Alfredo Aceves
The Giants have signed righty Alfredo Aceves, Matt Eddy of Baseball America writes. The deal is presumably of the minor-league variety.
Aceves, 32, posted a 6.52 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 19 1/3 innings with the Yankees last season and allowed an extreme number of fly balls in the process, and he’s generally struggled since a strong 2011 campaign as a swingman in Boston. He did, however, pitch fairly well in 28 1/3 innings with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last year. His ability to start or pitch in multiple-inning stints could prove useful, although perhaps only in an emergency for the time being.
Quick Hits: Craig, Red Sox, Colletti, Coke
Hector Olivera‘s newly-reported free agency could make for an interesting weekend. While we await further word on his market, let’s have a look at a few stray links to round out the evening:
- The Giants do not appear to have interest in pursuing a trade for Red Sox first baseman/outfielder Allen Craig to fill in for the injured Hunter Pence, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. While that could change if the asking price is “oddly low,” per Heyman, San Francisco is not inclined to make a move of that magnitude with Pence expected to return around the first of May. While a prior report had suggested the possibility of a Craig acquisition, the team would have no apparent role for him upon Pence’s return.
- Alex Speier of the Boston Globe takes a close look at the evolving ownership and leadership situation with the Red Sox — and, in particular, Fenway Sports Group part-owner and president Michael Gordon. Though some speculated that Gordon was attempting to build his influence over the ballclub as he gained control of the second-largest stake of the FSG umbrella entity, Speier explains that the notion of a power struggle in Boston is just not true.
- Displaced Dodgers GM Ned Colletti is enjoying his “respite” from the decisionmaking seat, as Bill Dwyre of the Los Angeles Times writes in a fascinating look at the former top baseball man in Los Angeles. Now working as a senior advisor to club president Stan Kasten — who actually extended his contract through 2016 — Colletti says that he is enjoying a more grass-roots role than he could ever have hoped to play in the GM position. At the same time, he indicated that he does not intend to slowly ease out of the game. “The song isn’t over,” says Colletti. “It is just a pause.”
- Addressing the facially odd decision of lefty Phil Coke to take a minor league deal with the Cubs rather than a reported MLB deal elsewhere, CJ Nitkowski of FOX Sports says it is all about opportunity. Nitkowski says that he, too, made the decision to take a better opportunity on a non-guaranteed deal, though in his case it did not work out as hoped.
Hector Olivera Declared Free Agent
Cuban infielder Hector Olivera has officially been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports on Twitter. That means that Olivera is free to sign at any time.
Olivera, 29, has widely been tabbed as likely to sign quickly after officially reaching the open market. Certainly, any team hoping to add him will be doing so with expectations that he’ll play a significant role in 2015, and will therefore want to get him into camp as soon as possible.
Sources close to Olivera vehemently denied a report yesterday suggesting that Olivera may have a UCL problem in his throwing arm. It is not yet clear whether any arm issues are a concern for teams with interest, though Olivera does have some prior medical concerns that will certainly be explored in detail by the club that signs him. Olivera discussed his health and other topics in a recent interview with Ben Badler of Baseball America.
Since Olivera was not technically allowed to negotiate with clubs before being made a free agent by the league, his market and market value remain somewhat hazy. But numerous reports have indicated that he could potentially score a significant guarantee, with estimates ranging from $30MM all the way up to $70MM+. And Olivera has been connected with teams such as the Dodgers, Braves, Mariners, A’s, Giants, Padres and Yankees at various points.
Needless to say, his late entry onto the market — while widely expected — makes for an interesting final twist to this year’s free agent market. He is considered to be a starting-caliber asset after impressing in his recent showcases, though the uncertainties inherent in his situation will no doubt play a role in his ultimate contract.