Phillies Could Look To Add Veteran Shortstop, Catcher During Camp
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said that he could look to add a veteran shortstop and catcher to his club, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. While Amaro does not expect to make a move before camp opens, he indicated that the club will have its eyes out for additions over the course of the spring.
Philadelphia is obviously charting a different path this year than it has in recent campaigns. With several veterans already dealt away and others possibly to follow, the Phils will no doubt continue to fill a roster with low-priced, good-clubhouse veterans and players with some manner of upside.
At short, Freddy Galvis currently sits atop the depth chart with Jimmy Rollins now in Los Angeles. Additional competition and depth certainly makes some sense there. Behind the dish, veteran Carlos Ruiz seems likely to open the year with the club but could certainly become a trade candidate at some point during the season, if not sooner. With players like Cameron Rupp, Koyie Hill, and John Hester the top names behind him, another option makes some sense.
Quick Hits: Tanaka, Sabathia, Royals, Cuba, Extensions
Yankees starters Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia are generating positive reports, team pitching coach Larry Rothschild tells Mark Didtler of the Associated Press (via the LoHud Yankees Blog). Tanaka has “felt good” while going through a normal winter progression, says Rothschild. The pair’s progress this spring will be critical for the Yankees. If Tanaka’s partially torn UCL or Sabathia’s balky knee are problematic, the club would seem a prime candidate to add pitching.
- In the final analysis, the Royals‘ run with James Shields was an example of the team “beating the system,” according to Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star. By selling high on Wil Myers to add Shields, Kansas City added the arm it needed before cashing him in for a new first-round pick through the qualifying offer system.
- The Red Sox and Orioles have at least begun looking into the idea of playing a spring game in Cuba this year, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. While it appears unlikely that will happen in such short order, it certainly hints at how quickly things could move in that arena.
- Signing players to big extensions is obviously risky, and rarely works out in the way that many expect when a deal is struck. But that does not mean that they fail to deliver good value, or that teams are irrational in reaching them, Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus writes.
MLB Draft Order Set
With James Shields reportedly headed to San Diego, the last moving parts in the coming year’s amateur draft are now fixed in place. The Padres will wave goodbye to the 13th overall pick — the same slot the team used last year to take the since-promised-away Trea Turner — in order to add Shields.
The draft order was originally established at the close of the regular season, of course. But with twelve players receiving and rejecting qualifying offers, plenty of shuffling remained. This year, at least, no compensation-bound free agents will drag the uncertainty into the season.
The results of that rarefied sector of the free agent market are in. As Baseball America documents, the first-round (or, if you prefer, pre-second-round) draft order that results is as follows:
1. Diamondbacks [Protected First-Round Picks]
2. Astros
3. Rockies
4. Rangers
5. Astros
6. Twins
7. Red Sox
8. White Sox
9. Cubs
10. Phillies
11. Reds
—
12. Marlins [Unprotected First-Round Picks]
13. Rays
14. Braves
15. Brewers
16. Yankees
17. Indians
18. Giants
19. Pirates
20. Athletics
21. Royals
22. Tigers
23. Cardinals
24. Dodgers
25. Orioles
26. Angels
—
27. Rockies [Compensation Picks]
28. Braves
29. Blue Jays
30. Yankees
31. Giants
32. Pirates
33. Royals
34. Tigers
35. Dodgers
36. Orioles
—
37. Astros [Competitive Balance Round A]
38. Rockies
39. Cardinals
40. Brewers
41. Padres
42. Indians
Note that there were other picks lost in the free agent process, not reflected above, which impact the rest of the draft order. Namely, the Red Sox (second round, competitive balance Round B) and White Sox (second and third round) each gave up two picks while the Twins forfeited their second-rounder.
BA also tabulates the resulting projected total draft pool allocations, which provide important parameters for each team and also serve as a general guide to how overall drafting power is spread across the league this time around. (Precise pick-by-pick pool allocations remain to be released by the league.)
Astros – $17.98MM
Rockies – $14.55MM
D’backs – $14.18MM
Rangers – $9.47MM
Braves – $8.70MM
Yankees – $8.21MM
Reds – $8.09MM
Brewers – $8.06MM
Orioles – $7.99MM
Giants – $7.82MM
Pirates – $7.69MM
Twins – $7.69MM
Cardinals – $7.69MM
Cubs – $7.55MM
Indians – $7.53MM
Royals – $7.50MM
Tigers – $7.40MM
Phillies – $7.36MM
Dodgers – $7.24MM
Marlins – $7.04MM
Rays – $6.86MM
Red Sox – $6.48MM
Athletics – $5.67MM
Blue Jays – $5.63MM
White Sox – $5.54MM
Angels – $5.42MM
Padres – $5.39MM
Mariners – $4.36MM
Mets – $3.74MM
Nationals – $3.70MM
Quick Hits: Angels Payroll, Hamels, Olivera
Let’s round up a few stray notes from the day:
- After avoiding arbitration with Matt Joyce today, the Angels appear set to enter the spring with a MLB payroll of a shade under $145MM, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes. That is about $10MM shy of last year’s starting point, leaving the team with additional luxury tax space (Gonzalez estimates a $174MM payroll for those purposes) that the club will be willing to put towards any needs that become apparent over the course of the season.
- Potentially joining the Halos with interesting summer plans are the Phillies, who are increasingly likely to hold onto ace Cole Hamels, as Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. reiterated previous statements that he expects Hamels to enter camp with the team, adding that he “expect[s] him to be our Opening Day starter.” The Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, and Cardinals are all said to have been in touch recently on Hamels, but while all are clear of Hamels’s no-trade protection, they also each have good reasons not to be aggressive.
- Hector Olivera‘s representatives have indicated that he will put on his final open showcase this coming Wednesday, Ben Badler of Baseball America tweets. That obviously could be a prelude to an intensification of his market, particularly with Spring Training fast approach. As Badler notes, Olivera is still not a free agent, but is expected to be so declared in short order.
More Reactions To The James Shields Signing
We already took a look at one group of opinions and analysis coming out of the Padres’ signing of James Shields, but the reactions keep coming. Here’s more:
- The Shields camp made a strategic error by shooting too high, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes. After initially asking for a contract in the realm of five to six years at $120MM to $125MM, his team did not move down off that ask soon enough in the wake of Jon Lester‘s signing, says Passan. I do think it worth adding that four years and $75MM at a preferred geographical spot is far from a terrible downside scenario — even in the context of the modern free agent world — and that ultimate price could well have justified an aggressive strategy, depending upon Shields’s own particular preferences and risk tolerance.
- Quality, durable arms of the relatively recent past provide at least some insight into how Shields might produce over the term of his deal, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland writes. Among pitchers with age 29-32 seasons similar to those Shields just put up, the outcomes over the next four years ranged from 900+ innings of Greg Maddux to less than 300 frames of Frank Viola. On the whole, the (rather small) group lost one-third of its total innings while putting up less than half the total wins above replacement as against the previous four-year run. Though there is obviously plenty of risk, Lindbergh concludes that, in Shields’s case at least, it seems a reasonable-enough outlook to warrant the commitment.
- San Diego has a legitimate abundance of starting pitching and could use it to make a trade, now or over the summer, opines ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider post). That flexibility is as important as the upgrade that Shields represents, in Law’s view. Of course, bolstering the MLB roster through trade is not the only hypothetical outcome, and Padres GM A.J. Preller may face an even sterner challenge if the team he has compiled fails to compete, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes.
- That the Cubs made a legitimate, late run at Shields is revealing, ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers writes. It shows that the team has cash to spend, that Shields likely would have been pursued harder if Chicago hadn’t landed Lester, and that the front office is prepared to act boldly when opportunity arises.
- The Dodgers considered a run at Shields but were never going to approach the price range that Shields ultimately commanded, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Los Angeles “was looking for something more cost effective,” says Olney.
Poll: Best “Big Three” Free Agent Pitcher Signing
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rated three starters at the top of this year’s free agent class, as did many other observers: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields. There was never much debate as to which of that trio was “best” or would earn the most money, but plenty of ink was spilled on the question of which would deliver the best value.
Those three are now all signed to deals that fall largely within the range of expectations, but which come with considerations impacting their respective value. And, of course, we now know which teams those hurlers will pitch for, allowing consideration of fit.
So, all said, which signing was the wisest? Here are the affirmative arguments for each:
Max Scherzer, Nationals (seven years, $210MM): There is little question that Scherzer was the best player available, and he upgrades an already-excellent Nats’ rotation while also effectively building out the team’s depth at the position — now and in the future. And here’s the key point that has flown under the radar: when the deal’s whopping $210MM price tag is reduced to net present value, it is less than 10% more costly than the Lester contract.
Jon Lester, Cubs (six years, $155MM plus option): Raise your hand if you predicted this signing? Actually, wait, raise your hand if you didn’t. Lester makes a perfect fit for the Cubs in so many ways. He is a workhorse, clubhouse rock who is coming off his best season as a professional. Lester can be expected to front the rotation now and provide a stabilizing force over the life of his deal, which gives the team control over a seventh year without guaranteeing it.
James Shields, Padres (four years, $75MM plus option): Not only did San Diego manage to get Shields for four years, instead of five, it did so while promising far less than the nine-figure deal that many thought possible or even probable. Shields may be the oldest of this group, but he is not promised any money past his age-36 season, same as the rest. He has been outstanding and durable, and there’s an argument to be made that the Friars got the steal of the offseason.
Best "Big Three" Free Agent Pitcher Signing
-
Jon Lester 44% (9,324)
-
James Shields 36% (7,708)
-
Max Scherzer 20% (4,219)
Total votes: 21,251
Check Out HoopsRumors.com
The NBA trade deadline is a week from Thursday, and Hoops Rumors has been tracking all of the developments in what’s already been a busy trade season so far. The free-spending Nets are open to trading Brook Lopez, Deron Williams and Joe Johnson, their three most highly paid players. Lance Stephenson, Charlotte’s marquee offseason free agent signing, is the subject of persistent trade rumors. Other storylines, like the pursuit of Ray Allen and the unsettled Kings coaching situation, threaten to pop to the forefront any minute. Whatever happens, we’ll be on top of it with context and analysis, so bookmark us and check back often!
Minor Moves: Jimenez, Fornataro, Davies, Elmore, Alderson
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…
- The Phillies have outrighted lefty Cesar Jimenez to Triple-A, according to the International League transactions page. Despite inking a one-year deal to avoid arbitration back in October, Jimenez lost his roster spot to Chad Billingsley. He had strong results last year both in the bigs and upper minors, working to a 1.69 ERA in 16 MLB frames and a 1.45 mark over 49 2/3 innings at Triple-A.
- Likewise, the Nationals passed righty Eric Fornataro through waivers and assigned him to Triple-A, the club announced. Washington claimed Fornataro off waivers from the Cardinals earlier in the offseason, then designated him to make room for Casey Janssen. The 27-year-old reached the bigs last year for the first time, but spent most of his season working to a 2.57 ERA in 56 Triple-A innings.
- The Yankees have inked right-hander Kyle Davies to a minor league deal, Sweeny Murti of WFAN reports on Twitter. Davies, 31, has worked in the minors over the past two years with the Twins and Indians organization, tossing 154 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball last year. He has seven years in the bigs on his resume, though he owns a career 5.59 ERA with 6.4 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9.
- The Rays announced that they’ve signed utility man Jake Elmore to a minor league deal and invited him to Major League Spring Training. The 27-year-old Elmore elected free agency last week after being outrighted by the Pirates. He spent last season with the Triple-A affiliates for the Reds and the A’s (plus a brief MLB stint with Cincinnati), batting .281/.376/.345. Elmore’s most extensive MLB experience came with Houston in 2013, when he batted .242/.313/.325 in 136 plate appearances. Elmore played every position on the diamond with Houston that season, and he even pitched and caught in the same game.
- Right-hander Tim Alderson signed a minor league deal with the Nationals, according to the team’s transactions page. San Francisco selected Alderson 22nd overall in 2007, and in the 2008-09 range, he was one of the organization’s top pitching prospects, alongside Madison Bumgarner. Alderson twice ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100, but his career stalled after he was flipped to the Pirates in the Freddy Sanchez trade of 2009. Now 26, Alderson has a lifetime 5.02 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 129 Triple-A innings, and a 4.24 ERA in his minor league career as a whole.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Matt Joyce
We’ll keep tabs on the day’s arbitration settlements here:
- The Angels have avoided arbitration with outfielder Matt Joyce, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports on Twitter. He will earn $4.75MM in his final arb-eligible season. The 30-year-old, left-handed-swinging Joyce lands just shy of his $4.9MM projection, via MLBTR/Matt Swartz, and just above the midpoint between the sides’ filing figures ($5.2MM vs. $4.2MM). After dealing for him earlier in the offseason, Los Angeles figures to rely on Joyce quite a bit — especially with Josh Hamilton out to start the season. Joyce has been a steadily above-average offensive producer over recent years, though his power dropped last year and he has not returned to the All-Star level numbers he put up in 2010-11.
Tigers Have Discussed Dioner Navarro Internally
4:25pm: Whatever Detroit has done internally, it has not yet chatted with Toronto about a deal involving Navarro, Sportsnet broadcaster Mike Wilner tweets.
3:04pm: Following the news that Victor Martinez has a torn medial meniscus and will undergo surgery tomorrow that makes him highly unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, Sportsnet’s Jeff Blair reports that the Tigers have had internal discussions about pursuing a trade for Dioner Navarro. According to Blair, Toronto won’t move Navarro without receiving pitching in return.
The fit is at least somewhat curious, as Martinez wasn’t expected to catch much anyhow — perhaps only in interleague series that take place in NL parks, manager Brad Ausmus told the Detroit Free Press in late January. Beyond that, Detroit and Toronto share perhaps the same Achilles Heel in the form of relief pitching. The Blue Jays have been eyeing bullpen help for the better part of a month, and the Tigers’ shaky bullpen was their downfall in last year’s ALDS. It seems unlikely that Detroit would willingly deplete its bullpen depth in order to facilitate a trade. Then again, the Blue Jays could theoretically move Navarro for minor league pitching and use the $5MM savings to increase their pursuit of a free agent such as Francisco Rodriguez or a trade target like Jonathan Papelbon, though that’s one hundred percent speculative.
Navarro, who turns 31 today, enjoyed a solid season at the plate in his first year with the Blue Jays, hitting .274/.317/.395 with 12 homers. He’s been an oft-mentioned trade candidate this winter following Toronto’s signing of Russell Martin to a five-year deal, but recent indications have been that he will open the season with Toronto. Navarro will earn $5MM in the second season of a two-year, $8MM contract in 2015.