Reactions To And Fallout From The James Shields Signing
The James Shields saga has finally drawn to a close, with the right-hander agreeing to a four-year deal to pitch near his southern California home as a member of the vastly reshaped Padres. Shields will reportedly take home $75MM, and his contract also contains a club option. Shields rumors have dominated the past week, with multiple teams rumored to be involved. Here are some reactions from around the baseball world as well as some details on other offers that Shields had available…
- Shields did not take the best offer that was presented to him, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). One team made the right-hander a four-year, $80MM contract offer. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune backs that up (also on Twitter) by noting that the Padres’ offer was “one of the highest,” adding that he had heard Shields was willing to take a small discount to pitch in San Diego.
- That team wasn’t the Cubs, who topped out at three years and a vesting option, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Chicago wasn’t willing to guarantee Shields a contract in the mid-$70MM range after spending $175MM on Jon Lester and Jason Hammel already this offseason.
- The Marlins also offered Shields a three-year pact and a vesting option, Heyman tweets.
- The Marlins realized they had to bow out on Saturday afternoon once the bidding exceeded $70MM, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (Twitter links). Miami was concerned not only with blowing up its future payroll but also with forfeiting the No. 12 pick in the draft — the top unprotected pick this year. The Padres, of course surrendered the very next pick in the draft, as they’d been slotted 13th overall. Frisaro adds that Shields monitored the Marlins all winter and was impressed by their direction, but the Padres simply made a stronger offer.
- Olney gets a different sense of the Marlins’ level of involvement, as he tweets that some are of the belief that the Marlins actually made the highest offer to Shields.
- The Cubs‘ guarantee was around $60MM, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Sherman adds that Shields’ camp pursued the Dodgers far more than the team pursued him, and the Blue Jays hadn’t spoken to Shields in about two weeks when he agreed to terms.
- Also from Sherman’s piece, he opines that while Shields is unquestionably a financial risk — the Friars will be paying him and Kemp roughly $36MM per year beginning in 2016 (the $18MM received from the Dodgers offsets much of the 2015 cost) — he was too good of a deal to pass up. Shields was still cheaper, financially speaking, than Cole Hamels, and he also didn’t cost the prospects Hamels would have required. He also provides leadership and protects them somewhat when Ian Kennedy and Andrew Cashner hit the open market. And, with Kennedy, Carlos Quentin, Justin Upton, Will Venable, Joaquin Benoit, Cory Luebke, Shawn Kelley, Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson all potentially off the books next winter, the team has some financial flexibility.
- Fangraphs’ Mike Petriello writes that while the addition of Shields is an unequivocal boost to the Padres’ postseason hopes, their downfall very well could be a patchwork group of infielders. The Padres’ infield projects at just 5.6 WAR, based on the Steamer projection system, and Petriello looks at the past five seasons’ worth of data to see the correlation between infield WAR and overall wins by a team. Unsurprisingly, the outlook is bleak, with only the 2012 Orioles and A’s receiving a lower WAR contribution and still reaching the playoffs. Of course, as Petriello notes, there’s reason to be optimistic for a rebound from Jedd Gyorko, and there’s still some upside in Yonder Alonso and Will Middlebrooks. The shortstop tandem of Alexi Amarista and Clint Barmes is likely to be a black hole offensively, however.
- Peter Gammons is a bit skeptical of the Padres’ win-now tactics (Twitter links). As Gammons points out, while the team has created some buzz and bolstered its 2015 hopes, by 2017 they’ll have a 32-year-old Matt Kemp and 36-year-old Shields earning significant salaries, and they’ve either traded away their recent first-round picks or watched them flame out. The Padres have just two of their first rounders from 2009-14 still in the system in Hunter Renfroe and Cory Spangenberg, and they now don’t have a first-rounder in 2015. Trea Turner and Joe Ross were in the Wil Myers trade, Max Fried was used in the Justin Upton trade, Karsten Whitson didn’t sign (Spangenberg was selected as compensation the following year) and Donavan Tate was out of baseball last season. The team does still have some supplemental first-rounders in the system, while seventh-rounder Matt Wisler and second-rounder Austin Hedges have become Top 100 prospects.
- Shields provides the Padres with some surprisingly much-needed innings, write Mark Simon and Justin Havens of ESPN. Though the Friars are typically thought of as having a strong pitching staff, their rotation has ranked 22nd or 23rd in innings in each of the past three seasons.
Cardinals Sign Jon Jay To Two-Year Deal
1:57pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick has the full breakdown of the deal (Twitter link). In addition to his $3.5MM salary for 2015, Jay received a $1.25MM signing bonus. On top of that, he’ll earn $6.225MM in 2016, making for a $10.975MM total.
1:50pm: Jay’s contract is a two-year, $10.975MM deal, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (on Twitter). The exact breakdown isn’t quite clear, though Goold notes that Jay’s base salary in 2015 is $3.5MM, and he also received a yet-undisclosed signing bonus (which is already included in the $10.975MM sum).
1:37pm: The Cardinals announced today that they’ve signed center fielder Jon Jay to a two-year contract, thereby avoiding arbitration (Twitter link). As can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, Jay had filed for a $5MM salary, while the Redbirds countered with a $4.1MM offer. With a two-year deal now in place, Jay’s salaries are locked in until he is eligible for free agency following the 2016 campaign.
Jay, a client of CAA Sports’ Nez Balelo, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM in 2015, which was roughly the midpoint of the figures exchanged by the two sides. The 29-year-old (30 in March) enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2014, hitting .303/.372/.378 in 468 plate appearances with above-average defense in center, per Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved.
The offensive output is more or less indicative of what one can expect from Jay in a typical season; Jay has never hit below .276 or above .305, and his OBP has fallen between .344 and .373 each season as well. The former second-rounder can be counted on for plus marks in both average and OBP with below-average power on a yearly basis. Previously, Jay has been a threat to steal as well, though after swiping 19 bags in 2012, he stole just 10 in 2013 and six in 2014.
While Jay is largely consistent at the plate, he is less so in the outfield, where defensive metrics fluctuate on his performance from year to year (with the net result being roughly average). Jay struggled defensively in the 2013 postseason, which was one likely reason that the Cardinals felt the need to acquire Peter Bourjos from the Angels last offseason. One of baseball’s most gifted defenders, Bourjos cut into Jay’s playing time a bit early in the season before Jay reclaimed the everyday role. He’s ticketed for everyday duty in center field again in 2015, which prompted some to speculate on the availability of Bourjos earlier this winter. However at this point, it seems that both center fielders will be in camp with St. Louis.
Finding A Home For Rickie Weeks
This time of year, few free agents will require a sizable commitment to add. While James Shields provided a notable exception, the bulk of remaining free agents can be had for relatively modest investments. Last winter, seemingly innocuous deals for Pat Neshek, Justin Turner and Zach Duke proved to be substantial bargains for the teams that issued them. In looking at the remaining free agents on the market, Rickie Weeks stands out as a once-excellent contributor who could still deliver value for a modest price.
The 32-year-old former No. 2 overall selection is hardly what he was in his brilliant 2009-11 peak when he batted .269/.357/.472 in 1431 plate appearances. Weeks showed consistent 20-30 homer power with good on-base skills and anywhere from slightly above-average to somewhat below-average defense, depending on your metric of choice. In his age 26-28 seasons, Weeks looked to be on the verge of cementing himself as one of the game’s elite second basemen.
Fast forward a few years, and we sit on Feb. 9, 2015, as Weeks looks for a job following up on a season in which he primarily deployed as a platoon bat. An overall batting line of .274/.357/.452 looks like a near-mirror image of Weeks’ heyday, but the sample size of plate appearances was less than half what he’d have earned in 2010, and his power against right-handed pitching was nonexistent.
Pair that with Weeks’ .209/.306/.357 line from the 2013 season, and one could easily write him off as a once-promising star that burned out quickly. That may ultimately be how he’s remembered, but there are also reasons to think that Weeks could provide some significant value in the 2015 season.
Weeks hit an impressive .256/.361/.504 line against left-handed pitching (seven homers in 155 PA), and quietly posted a nice overall batting line, although his good fortune on balls in play versus righties suggests that his cumulative .274/.357/.452 line should come down a bit across the board.
Looking back to Weeks’ 2013 season, he struggled with a .268 average on balls in play despite lowering his pop-up rate and hitting line drives and grounders at a rates that are roughly commensurate with his career marks. Weeks’ BABIP on grounders that season was 80 points below his career norm, while his BABIP on liners was about 50 points lower than usual. There’s definite reason to believe that some (though not all) of the downturn in production was an aberration.
Weeks has never been regarded as a great defender, and his glove has taken some significant steps back in recent years. A team would have to consider it a victory if his defense were merely below average as opposed to downright poor, but there are enough teams with questionable second base situations that a bat-first option or a platoon at the position should have some appeal. Weeks could also perhaps be deployed at third and in left field on occasion, one would think, if needed. Here are a few teams that make sense for the longtime Brewer…
- Angels: The Halos are currently projected to use a combination of Grant Green, Josh Rutledge and Johnny Giavotella at second in 2015. None of those three offer much upside with the bat — though assistant GM Matt Klentak spoke very optimistically about Green when he was a guest on the MLBTR Podcast last fall — nor do any project to be elite (or even above-average) defenders. If the Angels are going with an open competition at second base, adding Weeks to the mix would seem a reasonable course of action.
- Blue Jays: Toronto’s budgetary constraints are well known, but so is their dearth of usable options at second base. Maicer Izturis may see the bulk of time at the keystone in 2015, but he’s a 34-year-old coming off significant knee surgery and being asked to play half his games on artificial turf. Ryan Goins provides an all-glove alternative, but certainly Weeks could give the Jays an option with considerably greater upside at the plate.
- Braves: The Braves signed Alberto Callaspo to man second base for the bulk of the season, and they also acquired a near-MLB ready infielder, Jace Peterson, in the Justin Upton trade. Nonetheless, an alternative to Callaspo should he struggle and should Peterson require more minor league development would seem logical for the Braves, even it comes with little certainty in its own right.
- Giants: Joe Panik is slotted to play second again in 2015, and while the former first-round pick provided plenty of value in a 2014 audition, much of it came as a result of a .343 BABIP. Panik is a solid enough defender, but he offers no power (.063 ISO) and little speed. Weeks presents at the very least a platoon partner for Panik, who posted a sky-high .437 BABIP against lefties that he won’t repeat.
- Orioles: Jonathan Schoop is an excellent defensive player with plenty of upside at the plate, but he hit a ghastly .209/.244/.354 in 2014. Additional depth at the position certainly wouldn’t hurt the O’s, whose next-best alternatives include the light-hitting Ryan Flaherty and the well-traveled Jimmy Paredes.
- Padres: The Padres have a questionable infield mix, and while Jedd Gyorko is expected to man second base there, the team could, in theory, use him at third base while deploying Will Middlebrooks and Yonder Alonso in a platoon at first base. It’s not a perfect fit by any means, but the Friars should likely be open to adding more infield depth.
- Royals: Kansas City shopped Omar Infante at the Winter Meetings and has little infield depth beyond Christian Colon. Bringing in Weeks would give them an alternative should Infante struggle and possibly someone to take some at-bats at third base against left-handed pitching to offset Mike Moustakas‘ platoon woes.
At this stage of the offseason, Weeks seems destined for a one-year deal with a relatively modest base salary, if not a minor league deal. Of the listed clubs, the Angels and Blue Jays make the most sense to me, but given the low level of risk associated with adding Weeks at this point, one could make the case for a number of clubs — even some not listed here.
Padres Planning Aggressive Pursuit Of Yoan Moncada
If there’s one thing this offseason has taught us, it’s that as soon as the Padres complete one big move, their sights apparently shift to another significant target. In this instance, on the heels of their agreement on a four-year deal with James Shields, the Padres are shifting their focus to Yoan Moncada. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that the Padres are having a private workout with Moncada today and plan to bid aggressively on the 19-year-old Cuban phenom (Twitter link).
Moncada is the most coveted international amateur in recent history, as the switch-hitting, five-tool infielder is rumored to be in line for a bonus of anywhere from $30-40MM. Under the latest collective bargaining agreement, international prospects under the age of 23 and with less than five years of professional experience are subject to international bonus pools. Each team is assigned a bonus pool by MLB (based on their record from the previous season) and can spend up to that amount without penalty. However, the maximum penalties, which trigger at a 15 percent overage, include a 100 percent tax on every dollar spent over the pool limit as well as the loss of the ability to sign an international amateur for more than $300K in any of the two subsequent signing periods. Because of the overage taxes, a $30-40MM bonus would really mean a $60-80MM commitment.
Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that he’s heard the Padres aren’t necessarily scared of having a $300K max signing bonus for the next two years if it means adding Moncada to their ranks. To this point, the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox have been believed to be the favorites for Moncada. However, the Padres have shown an increased willingness to spend under new ownership and under the watch of new GM A.J. Preller, who specializes in the acquisition and evaluation of international talent. This would mark the second private workout the Padres have held for Moncada, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported last week that the Padres had already seen him once. Other clubs to have held private workouts for Moncada include the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Brewers, Braves, Rays, Giants and Tigers.
Notable February Extensions
We’ve already seen three extensions this month, with Wade Miley signing for three years (plus an option) with the Red Sox, Todd Frazier receiving a two-year deal from the Reds and Mike Dunn getting two from the Marlins. That’s no surprise, since contract extensions are common this time of year. Less than two weeks remain before the start of Spring Training, so agents and teams might prefer to discuss deals now, before extension discussions become distractions from preparations for the season. Perhaps just as importantly, the sorts of players who typically receive pre-free agency extensions frequently have arbitration cases pending in February.
Some February extensions, like Frazier’s and Dunn’s, only buy out arbitration seasons and thus don’t impact the player’s free agency timeline. Others, however, have a significant impact on both player and team. Here are some of the key February extensions of the 27 signed between 2012, 2013 and 2014.
- Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons and Julio Teheran, Braves, 2014. The Braves spent last February aggressively extending many of their key players, likely with an eye toward the opening of their new ballpark in 2017. Jason Heyward only received a two-year deal to cover his last two seasons of arbitration eligibility, but the Freeman, Kimbrel, Simmons and Teheran moves were dramatic ones. Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM deal, in particular, was a gigantic commitment to a player with a good, but not elite, track record. Still, Freeman had another strong season in 2014, and with the escalation of salaries throughout the game, he won’t need to have an Albert Pujols-like peak to justify the $20MM-plus salaries he’ll receive from 2017 through 2021.
- Homer Bailey, Reds, 2014. Bailey’s $105MM deal raised some eyebrows when it was signed, given his somewhat underwhelming overall track record, but there was a case for it, given his age (27) and 2012 and 2013 performances. Bailey recovered from a poor April to post good overall numbers in 2014, although he missed the last six weeks of the season with a forearm injury.
- Michael Brantley, Indians, 2014. After a breakout 2014 in which he hit .327/.385/.506, Brantley’s $25MM deal now looks like a steal for Cleveland. Brantley will make just $7.5MM in 2017, the first season in which he would have been eligible for free agency, and the Indians also have an $11MM option on him for 2018, his age-31 season.
- Brett Gardner, Yankees, 2014. Gardner would have been the top players available on this offseason’s free agent market had he not signed a four-year extension last February. The deal, which begins this year, guarantees Gardner $52MM and allows the Yankees to control his age-31 through age-34 seasons, with an option on another season after that. Gardner more than doubled his previous career high in home runs in 2014 while stealing fewer bases than any season since he was a rookie (excepting his injury-shortened 2012), so it’s possible his next four seasons could look quite different than the four leading up to the extension did.
- Felix Hernandez, Mariners, 2013. Two years in, Hernandez’s enormous contract (which you might see as seven years and $175MM or five years and $135.5MM of new money, depending on how you want to look at it) has worked brilliantly so far, and it’s served as an obvious precedent for many of the biggest pitcher deals since, like those of Justin Verlander, Masahiro Tanaka and Clayton Kershaw.
- Yadier Molina, Cardinals, 2012. At the time, Molina’s $75MM deal was the third largest ever for a catcher, but now it looks like a bargain, with Brian McCann and Russell Martin since signing as free agents for greater amounts and Miguel Montero landing a $60MM extension just months after Molina’s. Two years into his deal (which did not begin until the 2013 season), Molina is still an elite catcher due to his defense, although his offense took a step backward in an injury-ravaged 2014 season.
- Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals, 2012. Zimmerman’s defensive and injury issues threaten to make his contract troublesome despite his still-strong offense. With Adam LaRoche out of the picture in Washington, Zimmerman will likely play out the remainder of the five years (or six, if the Nationals exercise his 2020 option) at first base. The yearly salaries of Zimmerman’s deal ($14MM per season through 2018, $18MM for 2019) are reasonable, so if Zimmerman takes well to first, he could end up justifying the deal even though he’s unlikely to return to his 2009 and 2010 peak, when he delivered consecutive seasons of over 6 fWAR.
- Salvador Perez, Royals, 2012. Perez’s contract was highly unusual because he had just 158 career plate appearances at the time and wasn’t regarded as a likely star. There wasn’t much precedent for it (the only other players who had signed extensions before accumulating a year of service time were Evan Longoria and Matt Moore, both of whom were very highly regarded), and it hasn’t established a precedent for similar deals. The Royals took a minor gamble on an unproven commodity, guaranteeing Perez just $7MM over five years, and almost certainly saved tens of millions in the process. Perez has become a good hitter and an elite defensive catcher, and his deal also gives the Royals extremely cheap options for 2017, 2018 and 2019, the last two of which would have been free-agent years had Perez not agreed to a deal.
Quick Hits: K-Rod, Rockies, Baker
The White Sox and Brewers have had the best and worst offseasons, respectively, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The White Sox were aggressive but conservative in spending their financial flexibility and did well by not surrendering any top prospects to acquire Jeff Samardzija. The Brewers, meanwhile, are not good enough to compete in the NL Central now or in the near future and should have either made a big play for a free agent like James Shields or turned over the roster on a grander scale than just trading Yovani Gallardo.
Elsewhere in baseball:
- If the Marlins are unable to further upgrade their rotation, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro advocates the club signing Francisco Rodriguez, not to supplant closer Steve Cishek but to solidify the back end of their bullpen. Frisaro tweeted the Marlins could apply their arbitration savings of $1.265MM (achieved with the Mike Dunn extension and in winning the Mat Latos arbitration hearing) towards signing Rodriguez. Earlier today, Frisaro reported the Marlins have contacted K-Rod’s agent, Scott Boras.
- GM Jeff Bridich sees the free agent signing of Kyle Kendrick and the acquisition of David Hale as updgrading the Rockies‘ rotation, writes Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. “I certainly feel like the depth has been addressed to a certain degree,” Bridich said. “We were involved in both free agency and trades. Again, we have a good sense of what Kyle Kendrick is and what he can do. I think he has proven himself. With the acquisition of somebody like Hale … I think there is upside there.“
- MLB.com’s Terence Moore profiles Dusty Baker, who would “like to have another chance to manage, because the only thing lacking in my career is” a World Series ring, but is content if he never receives that opportunity.
- Cuban infielder Alejandro Ortiz has petitioned for free agency and is expected to hit the market soon, tweets Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. The 24-year-old, who possesses speed and a good glove, played five seasons in Serie Nacional, so he is exempt from counting against a team’s international signing bonus pool.
A’s Notes: Shields, Doolittle, Olivera, Moncada
The A’s hosted their annual FanFest today with a sellout crowd of over 15,000. Here are the highlights:
- The A’s experienced plenty of turnover this offseason (nine trades involving 27 players) and the holdovers are starting to see the method in GM Billy Beane’s madness. “Initially when the trades are going on, you’re going, ‘Come on, seriously? Another All-Star caliber player is leaving us?’” said Coco Crisp (as quoted by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). “But as things progressed, I started to see things come together, and I understand it from a business standpoint and for the future. Some of the players we got have the potential to be great players and we have another team out to prove ourselves. I think it’s going to work out good.“
- Also from Slusser, Beane has a plan if his offseason maneuvers don’t work. “If one of these (trades) doesn’t work, we’ll make another one because that’s what we do. We’re not going to wait around.“
- Beane apparently isn’t waiting around for James Shields. Slusser has heard rumblings the A’s might be one of the teams still in play for Shields, but she has been assured they are not.
- MLB.com’s Jane Lee updated the status of a trio of injured pitchers in a pair of reports. Sean Doolittle received a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection to alleviate inflammation and irritation in his left shoulder. “Everything so far has gone really smoothly,” Doolittle said. “We’re optimistic, but we haven’t set a timetable because, based on what the doctors and trainers have said, every issue is kind of different. With PRP, it’s all about how your body reacts to it.” Doolittle has entered the beginning stages of a strengthening program, but manager Bob Melvin admits there is a good chance his closer will miss the early part of the season.
- A’s Assistant GM David Forst and Melvin both reiterated the probable timetable for starters Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin to return is June, barring any setbacks from their Tommy John surgeries.
- Slusser reports the A’s continue to monitor Cuban infielders Yoan Moncada and Hector Olivera, but doubts the team has the payroll for Moncada having never spent more than $66MM on a player and does not see Olivera receiving an offer greater than the four-year, $36MM deal signed by Yoenis Cespedes.
James Shields’ Decision Expected “Soon”
FEBRUARY 8TH, 7:52pm: The Padres’ offer to Shields four years and between $72-80MM, tweets FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi.
11:46am: People around baseball think it will wind up somewhere in the $72-$75MM range across four years, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. The Cubs are still a long shot, according to Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM (on Twitter).
10:45am: Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (on Twitter) expects Shields’ deal to be a four-year deal worth around $72-$80MM.
10:32am: Depending on the number of years, Shields, could sign for an annual average value of a little less than $20MM, according to Lin.
10:10am: The Cubs are seen as the major outside threat as things appear headed toward a resolution between Shields and the Padres, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
Shields isn’t expected to come close to early $100MM projections and at this late juncture, baseball people say they believe he would do well to get anywhere close to $20MM per year. It is believed multiple teams have showed a willingness to extend a three-year offer, and one interested GM said agent Page Odle suggested he had at least one four-year offer.
9:40am: A Padres source that spoke with Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (on Twitter) expressed confidence that San Diego sign Shields.
9:20am: Shields’ decision could come either today (Sunday) or Monday, according to Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego (via Twitter). Lin hears that Shields was informed early on Saturday that the Padres has made their final offer. Lin adds (link) that he’d be surprised if another team comes in and steals him away.
FEBRUARY 7TH, 7:04pm: Shields never rejected a five-year, $110 million offer, tweets Nightengale. While not pertinent to the present situation, it’s an interesting revelation. Earlier in the offseason, it was rumored that such an offer had been extended. When Shields didn’t sign, it was widely assumed the deal was rejected.
6:32pm: The outcome of the Padres offer is expected to be known within 24 hours, tweets Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
4:20pm: It’s not known which teams remain involved in the bidding, but one involved club was told that a decision is expected soon, tweets Nightengale.
4:07pm: The Padres “badly” want Shields and remain the favorites, but they’re being told that there are other teams still heavily involved in the bidding, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports. Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio tweets that there’s no “impasse” between the two sides, but rather that Shields simply must decide whether or not to accept San Diego’s “last and final offer.”
2:43pm: The Padres and Shields are currently “at an impasse” after several hours of negotiations, tweets Miller. The ball is Shields’ court at this point, he adds.
1:31pm: The Padres are indeed the favorites to sign Shields, “if not a lock already,” reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (on Twitter). Frisaro covers another team, the Marlins, who have been linked to Shields throughout the offseason.
11:15am: Talks between the Padres and James Shields “have heated up and are gaining momentum,” according to Scott Miller of FOX Sports San Diego/Bleacher Report (Twitter link). Shields, a native of Santa Clarita, Calif. (just 150 miles from San Diego), very much likes the idea of pitching in San Diego, Miller adds.
Last night, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that nothing was imminent between the two sides at this point, though he added that things could change quickly. Within his piece, Lin noted that Cole Hamels (a San Diego native himself) could be the team’s top target, but no club had yet come close to matching an asking price that many clubs believe to be exorbitant.
Rumors have been connecting the Padres and Shields for quite some time now. Adding an arm of his caliber to an already-strong rotation would be the icing of the cake, so to speak, on what has been a nearly unfathomably active offseason for first-year general manager A.J. Preller. The former Rangers executive was named GM in August and set out to transform the Padres’ low-scoring offense not with a lengthy rebuild, but by using his farm system to acquire several win-now bats. San Diego has added Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks this winter as well as relievers Shawn Kelley and Brandon Maurer while keeping the big league roster largely intact. The most notable subtractions from last year’s 25-man roster are Seth Smith, Yasmani Grandal and Jesse Hahn.
Shields, the prize of the remaining crop of free agents, is reportedly expected to make a decision on a destination before the weekend is complete. If signed, he’d join Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy atop a strong group of starters and further the Friars’ chances of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2006.
Marlins Sign Mike Dunn To Two-Year Deal
The Marlins have avoided arbitration with reliever Mike Dunn agreeing to a two-year, $5.8MM deal, tweets Dunn’s agency, O’Connell Sports Management. The contract buys out Dunn’s remaining arbitration years, but keeps him on track for free agency after the 2016 season.
Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports Dunn will receive $2.35MM in 2015 ($50K more than projected) and $3.45MM in 2016. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweets Dunn can earn an additional $100K in the second year of the pact by reaching the thresholds of 55 and 60 innings pitched. The Marlins are a “file and trial” team (the strategy of going to an arbitration hearing with a player once arbitration figures have been exchanged), but they make an exception for multi-year deals, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. The left-hander filed for $2.6MM while the Marlins countered with $2.355MM, per MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. Dunn’s signing leaves David Phelps as the Marlins’ lone unresolved arbitration case.
Dunn has been a workhorse in the Marlins’ bullpen appearing in at least 60 games in each of the past four seasons, including 75 the past two years. The 29-year-old posted a line of 3.16 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and a career-best 3.5 BB/9 covering 57 innings of work in 2014.
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:
- AL CY Young Award winner Corey Kluber was Jeff Todd’s guest on the latest episode of MLB Trade Rumors Podcast. Also joining Jeff was MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko to discuss the Orioles’ offseason. A new edition of MLB Trade Rumors Podcast drops every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
- Steve Adams spoke with agents Josh Kusnick and Rafael Godoy about the intricaces of negotiating minor league contracts. “Minor league deals are a lot of work,“ Kusnick told Steve. “They’re not always easy to do. Some come together more quickly than others. There have been times in my career where a ball club will call me the minute free agency starts…They’ll make their offer, it’ll make sense, and then it’s done. But there are other situations where it’s dragged on for an entire year.“
- Jeff opines there will be few MLB pacts available to the free agents who are still unsigned.
- One of those MLB deals will be given to James Shields, but it may not be as lucrative as he hopes. Jeff writes there are few precedents for a free agent landing a nine-figure contract in February.
- Steve listed the hardest throwing relievers remaining on the free agent market, two of whom (John Axford and Chris Perez) signed within 48 hours of the post being published.
- Steve pegs another of those relievers, Joba Chamberlain, as being a relatively low-cost, high-upside addition to a contender’s bullpen.
- Steve names four free agents who can be controlled beyond 2015 because they have less than five years of service time.
- Charlie Wilmoth revisited the notable transactions from last February.
- Brad Johnson asked MLBTR readers where Dayan Viciedo will sign. Nearly one-fifth of you see the Tigers adding Viciedo.
- Steve hosted this week’s chat.
- Zach Links compiled the latest edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.