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Hanwha Eagles Sign Estevan Florial

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Outfielder Estevan Florial has agreed to a contract with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He had been outrighted by the Guardians earlier this summer and elected free agency at the end of the season.

Florial signed with the Yankees as an international free agent in 2015. He quickly began turning heads in the organization with his strong performance in the low minors. Entering the 2019 season, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and FanGraphs all ranked him as the number one prospect in the system. He was as toolsy as they come, with plus speed, big raw power, and a powerful throwing arm in center field.

Unfortunately, Florial never found a way to tap into all his potential at the highest level. Over parts of four seasons with the Yankees from 2020-23, he appeared in just 48 games, slashing .209/.313/.296 with a 75 wRC+. The Yankees traded him to the Guardians after the 2023 season, and he earned more playing time in Cleveland, appearing in 36 games for the Guardians in April and May. However, his results were just as poor. Over 111 trips to the plate, he put up a .173/.264/.367 batting line, good for an 80 wRC+. Cleveland designated him for assignment at the end of May, and he spent the rest of the season with the Triple-A Columbus Clippers.

Although Florial didn’t look any better with the Clippers than he did with the Guardians (.213 AVG, 83 wRC+), he has had success at Triple-A in the recent past. From 2022-23, he put up an impressive .283/.374/.523 slash-line over 202 games for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. In that time, he hit 43 home runs, stole 64 bases, and produced a 127 wRC+. It’s that level of performance the Eagles are surely hoping he’ll replicate in his first season in the KBO.

Yankees, Cubs Interested In Kyle Tucker

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Astros general manager Dana Brown left the door open yesterday to trading either outfielder Kyle Tucker or left-hander Framber Valdez this winter. Today, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link) reports that the Yankees and Cubs are two clubs interested in Tucker.

The news isn’t especially surprising. Tucker is one of the best players in the league and it would actually be more of a shock if any club weren’t interested in him. He is entering his final year of club control, which should eliminate teams fully in rebuild mode, but he should have broad interest apart from that. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary next year, a notable sum but still affordable for any team and a bargain for a player of Tucker’s talent level.

From 2021 to 2023, Tucker’s production was fairly consistent and also trending upward. He hit 30 home runs in the first two of those seasons and then 29 in the third. His walk and strikeout rates each made slight improvements in that stretch. He drew free passes at a 9.3% clip in 2021, then 9.7% and 11.9% in the next two seasons, while his strikeout rate went from 15.9% to 15.6% and then 13.9%. His stolen base total went from 14 to 25 to 30.

In 2024, he missed significant time after fouling a ball off his leg and fracturing his shin. That injury limited his counting stats but he continued to improve on a rate basis. Though his strikeout rate ticked back up to 15.9%, he drew walks in 16.5% of his plate appearances. Despite only getting into 78 games, he launched another 23 home runs. His wRC+ was between 130 and 146 over his previous three seasons but jumped to 180 in 2024.

He’s also been graded as a strong defender and, as mentioned, can steal a few bases. FanGraphs graded him as worth either 4.9 or 5.0 wins above replacement in three seasons from 2021 to 2023, and Tucker was worth 4.2 fWAR in 2024 even though he played less than half a season. That’s 19.1 fWAR over the past four years, placing him in 13th among all position players for that span. Thanks to his shin injury, all 12 guys ahead of him on that list played in more games.

There are some rough parallels here with the Juan Soto situation from a year ago. The Padres were willing to make Soto’s final year of club control available on the trade market in order to walk a tightrope. They wanted to continue competing but had a tight budget and had several players that were difficult to trade due to contractual reasons. Moving Soto freed up a huge amount of payroll space and also brought back immediate help in other areas, as the Friars were able to get a package of players that included Michael King and Drew Thorpe, later flipping Thorpe to get Dylan Cease.

The Astros are in a somewhat similar spot now. Brown previously said that the club might have to get creative with money this offseason, even though they still want to win next year. Players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have big contracts but are franchise cornerstones. Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly each have the right to veto any trades. Lance McCullers Jr. can’t be easily moved due to his health status.

They don’t really have to consider a trade but it seems they will pick up the phone and see if any club blows them away with a Soto-like package. Tucker’s track record isn’t quite as good as Soto’s but Soto was projected for a $33MM salary going into 2024, more than double what Tucker is slated to earn next year.

It’s theoretically possible that they can get a package of young talent they like while simultaneously freeing up some payroll space to re-sign Alex Bregman, since Brown and owner Jim Crane have both marked that as the club’s top priority. That would leave the Houston outfield consisting of Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubón, though it’s possible they get some cheaper outfield help back in the trade.

The Yankees, of course, wanted to re-sign Soto as a free agent but he is now going to become a Met. That leaves the Yanks with a big hole in their outfield and they have to pivot to other possibilities. The free agent market features guys like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández while the Yankees have been connected to trade candidate Cody Bellinger. Tucker would be a more attractive option than any of those three in a vacuum but a deal coming together would naturally depend on what it would take for the Astros to let him go.

The Yankees still have Aaron Judge as their outfield anchor and might move him back to right field for the post-Soto era, with Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham options for center. Tucker is strong in right field, so perhaps the Yanks would consider moving him to left. Due to the short porch in right, there’s more grass to cover in left field, making defense over there more of a concern.

There shouldn’t be any financial issue, as the Yankees just reportedly make Soto an offer of $760MM over 16 years, an average annual value of $47.5MM. They will now be looking to spread that kind of money around to other players and Tucker is only projected to get about a third of that.

For the Cubs, they already have a crowded outfield picture but clearly have interest in shaking it up a bit. Bellinger has been in many rumors this winter and Seiya Suzuki’s name has come up as well. Trading either is complicated, in Bellinger’s case due to his upcoming out-out while Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. Those two project to be in an outfield group that also includes Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, as well as youngsters like Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. Happ also has a no-trade clause while the Cubs probably want to hang onto the younger guys. Each of Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger perhaps departing a year earlier than that.

As mentioned, just about every contender should be calling the Astros to get a sense of the asking price. There are no guarantees that he can be obtained but even the possibility that he’s available makes him one of the most interesting names to watch in the coming weeks.

Rakuten Eagles Sign Spencer Howard, Miguel Yajure

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The Rakuten Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball have signed right-handed pitchers Spencer Howard and Miguel Yajure, the team announced. Both pitchers will presumably join the Eagles starting rotation. The 2025 season will be Howard’s first in NPB and Yajure’s second.

Howard, 28, was once a promising prospect in the Phillies organization but struggled to translate his minor league skills to the major league level. Over parts of five seasons with the Phillies, Rangers, Giants, and Guardians, he put up a 7.00 ERA in 144 innings of work. His underlying numbers, including a 4.77 SIERA, are better than his unsightly ERA, but no matter what statistics you look at, it’s clear Howard could not reliably retire MLB hitters. He has also struggled in the minors in recent years, putting up a 7.07 ERA and 6.20 FIP in 70 innings at Triple-A from 2022-24. Thus, the righty will look for a fresh start with the Eagles in 2025.

Yajure, 27 in May, made his MLB debut for the Yankees during the 2020 season. Over the next three years, he pitched 46 1/3 innings for the Yankees and Pirates, putting up a 7.58 ERA – even higher than Howard’s. His 5.37 SIERA was similarly poor, as was his low strikeout rate and high walk rate. If you include hit-by-pitches, he issued nearly as many free passes (32) as strikeouts (35). So, he set out in hopes of finding greener pastures across the pond last winter. Indeed, that’s exactly what he found. Yajure signed a one-year contract with the Yakult Swallows ahead of the 2024 season. With the Swallows, he pitched to a 3.34 ERA over 129 1/3 innings. A mid-3.00s ERA in NPB isn’t quite as impressive as it would be in MLB, but Yajure was a solid contributor for the Swallows, finishing second on the team in innings pitched. It was enough to convince the Eagles to give him a contract for 2025. He’ll look to build upon a solid first season in his sophomore NPB campaign.

Rangers Interested In Max Fried, A.J. Minter, Jonathan Loáisiga

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As the Rangers look to replace the many arms they lost to free agency this winter, three more targets have emerged: left-handed starter Max Fried, left-handed reliever A.J. Minter, and right-handed reliever Jonathan Loáisiga.

The news that Texas is interested in Fried comes from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. They confirm that re-signing Nathan Eovaldi remains the team’s primary goal but suggest the Rangers are considering Fried as one potential alternative. However, their interest seems to be casual, at least for now. After Corbin Burnes, Fried is arguably the top starting pitcher available in free agency. That means he’s going to command significantly more money than Eovaldi. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff predicted Fried would sign a six-year, $156MM deal; Eovaldi’s predicted contract was a two-year, $44MM pact. Thus, as the Rangers look to duck under the luxury tax threshold and continue to deal with TV revenue uncertainty, financial constraints could prevent them from signing any star free agents. In other words, it seems like the Rangers are keeping tabs on Fried, but a deal remains unlikely.

The bullpen is perhaps a bigger area of concern for Texas. The only four pitchers who threw more than 50 innings out of the Rangers bullpen in 2024 are all free agents: Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña. What’s more Josh Sborz is going to miss significant time again after undergoing shoulder surgery. President of baseball operations Chris Young has already made a couple of small additions, claiming Roansy Contreras off of waivers from the Angels and signing Luis Curvelo to a major league deal, but neither is the type of proven, high-leverage arm the Rangers desperately need. Ideally, the Rangers would be in the market for a bona fide closer like Tanner Scott or an All-Star talent like Jeff Hoffman. However, a lack of payroll flexibility could explain why they’re targeting a pair of bounce-back candidates instead.

Over the past five seasons, Minter has pitched to a 2.85 ERA and 3.04 SIERA in 243 innings of work for the Braves. While he only has 36 career saves, the southpaw has experience pitching late in games. He also has several years of playoff experience. In 25 postseason frames, he has a 2.88 ERA and 2.63 SIERA. The reason for hesitation when it comes to Minter, is that he spent two long stints on the injured list nursing a hip injury this past season. He ultimately needed surgery, and it’s not yet clear how soon he’ll be able to return. That said, a hip injury is far less worrisome than an arm-related issue, and Minter was highly durable from 2020-23. Only three relievers made more appearances in that time. Thus, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Minter is among the “most popular” left-handed relievers on the free agent market, linking him to the Braves, Cubs, and Rangers. He was also linked to the Blue Jays earlier this offseason.

Loáisiga has not been nearly as durable as Minter throughout his career, but the upside is appealing. He was one of the top relievers in the game in 2021, putting up a 2.17 ERA and 3.01 SIERA in 70 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Unfortunately, various arm injuries have gotten in his way ever since. He dealt with shoulder inflammation in 2022, bone spurs in his elbow in 2023, and, most recently, he underwent an internal brace procedure in April 2024. The rehab timeline for an internal brace procedure is typically 10-12 months, which means Loáisiga could be back to full strength in time for Opening Day. That being the case, it’s not hard to see why he has so many suitors, including the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and now, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN, the Padres and Rangers. While it’s been a long time since Loáisiga was a reliable big league reliever, it’s easy to dream about the upside of his 98 mph sinker and lethal curveball. So, it comes as little surprise that he is expected to sign a major league deal this winter (per Castillo).

Red Sox Interested In Walker Buehler

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The Red Sox are known to be looking for starting pitching, with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow having said that he wants to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have been connected to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried as well as notable trade candidates like Garrett Crochet, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reports that Walker Buehler is another free agent they have interest in.

Whether Buehler would count as raising the ceiling would be a matter of debate at this point, as it’s been a few years since he was at his best over a meaningful stretch of time. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 564 innings for the Dodgers, allowing 2.82 earned runs per nine. He combined a 27.7% strikeout rate with a 6.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He also posted good results in 15 postseason starts for the Dodgers in that time.

But in 2022, he had an ERA of 4.02 before requiring Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. He missed the entire 2023 campaign and didn’t immediately bounce back this year. He only made 16 starts in 2024 and had rough results, most prominently a 5.38 ERA. His 18.6% strikeout rate was below league average and also far from his previous form.

He did finish things on a positive note, in a very small sample but on a very big stage. After getting lit up by the Padres in the NLDS, he went on to throw ten shutout innings over his final three appearances of the Dodgers’ World Series run. That included four shutty against the Mets in the NLCS, a five-inning start against the Yankees in the third game of the World Series, followed by the final three outs in game five.

Going into 2025, Buehler is an interesting risk/reward play. His previous upside is tantalizing but he’s been hurt or middling for the past few years. He did have that strong finish in the playoffs but most modern front offices won’t be swayed by such a small sample, even it was under the brightest lights in baseball.

That uncertainty means that Buehler could likely be had for a relatively low price, which could either turn into a bargain or a waste. The Dodgers declined to issue Buehler a $21.05MM qualifying offer at season’s end, evidently not valuing him worth that price point. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Buehler for a one-year deal with a $15MM, though the market for pitching has been stronger than expected, with mid-rotation or back-end guys like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes outearning their projections so far.

Despite the recent results, Buehler has proven to be quite popular this winter, having already drawn the interest of Atlanta, the A’s, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Tigers and now Red Sox. For Boston, they tried a buy-low move last year which hasn’t worked out so far. After a few rough years, they gave Lucas Giolito a fairly modest $38.5MM guarantee on a two-year deal but elbow surgery wiped out his 2024 season.

The injury is not really the fault of the Boston front office but Giolito was a risky choice even before that and it was generally expected they would target more surefire rotation upgrades this time around. The club’s decision makers have talked about being aggressive this winter and putting together a club capable of winning the division, even if that means paying the competitive balance tax.

RosterResource pegs the club’s CBT number at $181MM right now, about $60MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. That means they have plenty of room to go after top free agents like Burnes and Fried, but they are also at least considering a more modest strike for someone like Buehler, or perhaps a combination of the two.

The rotation currently projects to include Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello, with openings at the back. Giolito will be expected back at some point, though likely not at the start of the season. Guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester are on the roster but fairly unestablished and still optionable. Alongside Buehler, the Sox could consider other mid-rotation or back-end free agents such as Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.

Shinnosuke Ogasawara Officially Posted For MLB Clubs

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Left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara has been officially posted by the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per reporter Francys Romero (X link). That opens up a 45-day window for his representatives at William Morris Endeavor to negotiate with major league clubs. If no deal is reached in that time, the southpaw will return to the Dragons for 2025.

It was reported back in October that the Dragons would make Ogasawara available via the posting system and that has now been rubber-stamped. The 30 MLB clubs can now officially speak to his representatives and see what sort of contract will be necessary to get him to put pen to paper.

While Ogasawara should generate interest, he’s clearly not exciting as Roki Sasaki, who has also been posted for clubs this offseason. However, Ogasawara likely has more earning power than Sasaki due to the binary nature of MLB international signing rules.

Players need to be 25 years old and have six seasons of experience in a foreign professional league in order to be considered “professionals” and have the right to freely negotiate a contract of any size and length. Players who don’t meet those criteria are considered “amateurs” and are therefore subject to the international bonus pool system, where each club gets $5-8MM annually to spend on such players. Sasaki is only 23 years old and will therefore be limited to a minor league deal with a signing bonus of a few million bucks. Ogasawara, on the other hand, is 27 years old and has appeared in parts of 9 NPB seasons. That means he has the freedom to fully assess his earning power and market himself to the highest bidder.

How much interest North American clubs will have in him is unknown. Ogasawara has had some success, but not as much as some other pitchers that have recently come over like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Shota Imanaga. He has thrown 951 1/3 innings over his NPB career,  though striking out just 18.9% of batters faced. For context, MLB average is usually in the 22-23% range these days. He did get his strikeout rate up to 24% in 2022 but it dropped to 20.1% last year and then all the way to 13.6% in 2024.

The lack of punchouts hasn’t stopped him from succeeding in Japan, as he has a 3.62 earned run average over his career and had a 3.12 ERA in the season that just finished, though MLB clubs might wonder if the same pitch-to-contact approach could carry over to North American ball.

Ogasawara is also on the smaller side for a starting pitcher, listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds. That’s actually slightly larger than the 5’10” and 175 pounds listed for Imanaga, so it’s not a total disqualification, but Imanaga managed to strike out 25% of batters faced in his NPB career.

Though even if Ogasawara is a notch below Imanaga, he could still generate interest. Youth is clearly an attractive quality which is why guys like Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee and Juan Soto have been paid so well, so the fact that Ogasawara just turned 27 in October will work in his favor. The recent downturn in strikeouts is a bit concerning but he also lowered his walk rate to a tiny 3.7% rate in 2024 and the ERA was still good.

It’s difficult to forecast a contract for a player coming from another league like Ogasawara but MLBTR predicted after the start of the offseason that he could land a two-year, $12MM deal. Perhaps he could benefit from the fact that the market for mid-rotation starters has been quite strong so far this winter. Each of Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have earned larger guaranteed than projected in recent weeks, which could perhaps trickle down to Ogasawara.

The lefty and his team will have more than a month to feel out the market and gauge interest. For clubs still looking to add in the rotation but who don’t want to pay for top names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried or Jack Flaherty, Ogasawara will be part of a mid-rotation or back-end group that still includes Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.

Dodgers Sign Michael Conforto

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December 10: The Dodgers officially announced Conforto’s signing today.

December 8: The Dodgers signed a left-handed hitting outfielder represented by Scott Boras tonight.  No, not that one.  Shortly before the Mets signed Juan Soto to a seismic contract, the Dodgers agreed to a deal with Michael Conforto, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Conforto’s deal with L.A. is a one-year pact worth $17MM, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports the deal includes deferred money and an $8.5MM signing bonus.

Conforto, 32 in March, was selected by the Mets tenth overall in the 2014 draft and emerged as an impact bat for the club early in his career. In his first six seasons as a big leaguer, Conforto slashed an incredible .259/.358/.484 with a wRC+ of 128. Conforto made an All-Star appearance, slugged 118 homers in 632 games, and established himself as one of the best young offensive players in the NL.

Unfortunately, however, Conforto was dogged by shoulder issues early in his career that came to a head following a down 2021 season (104 wRC+). Conforto declined the Qualifying Offer and entered free agency in line for a solid payday, but required surgery during the 2021-22 lockout and ultimately did not sign a contract for the 2022 season while he recuperated.

Despite missing the entire 2022 season, Conforto inked a strong two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants, one of eight contracts by former GM Farhan Zaidi that included an opt-out.  After posting a league average 99 wRC+ in his first year with the Giants, Conforto chose not to opt out of the $18MM he was owed for 2024.

Conforto improved to a 112 wRC+ in 2024, including a 137 surge over the season’s final two months.  He showed a reverse platoon split, beating up on lefties more so than righties.  He also managed a 133 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, a place known to suppress offense.

Over the two years Conforto has been a Giant, Oracle Park has been the second-worst park in baseball for offense, ahead of only T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is right around league average as the 17th best park in the majors for offense.

While the Dodgers are surely hoping that Conforto unlocks something closer to the form he showed throughout his 20s in New York with them this year, even the 105 wRC+ he’s offered over the past three seasons would help to bolster the club’s lackluster outfield mix. Dodgers outfielders combined for a wRC+ of just 101 last year, a figure that is drastically improved by contributions from Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts. Hernandez is currently a free agent, however, and while Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain in on him even after signing Conforto, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be in a Dodgers uniform in 2025. With Betts ticketed for an infield role next season, that left the Dodgers with a projected outfield of Tommy Edman, James Outman, and Andy Pages for next season. Pages’s 100 wRC+ led that trio in 2024, and even a relatively mediocre season for Conforto would be a massive upgrade over Outman’s ghastly 54 wRC+ in 53 games last year.

With the addition of Conforto, RosterResource projects the Dodgers for a $326MM payroll in 2025 that perfectly matches their 2024 payroll, though that projection does not factor in deferred money. Regardless, that’s not expected to prevent president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office from spending this winter. Every indication has been that the Dodgers are willing and able to increase their payroll well beyond last year’s figure in order to land the right players, which is surely a relief for fans given the number of holes that remain on the roster. The Dodgers could use additional bullpen help even after reuniting with Blake Treinen earlier this evening, would benefit from either re-signing Hernandez or adding another bat to their lineup, and at minimum they appear likely to reunite with Clayton Kershaw to bolster their rotation even after landing Blake Snell last month.

Dodgers Sign Blake Treinen

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December 10: Treinen’s signing has now been officially announced by the Dodgers, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link).

December 9: Per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link), Treinen will get a $5MM signing bonus and there no deferrals on the deal.

December 8: The Dodgers are in agreement with right-hander Blake Treinen on a two-year deal worth $22MM, according to a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2.  It’s the largest deal for a reliever going into his age-37 or later season since the Yankees signed Mariano Rivera in 2010.  Treinen is represented by Apex Baseball.

Treinen, 36, was the Dodgers’ highest-leverage reliever this year.  Despite his fastball slipping nearly three miles per hour, he posted excellent marks with a 1.93 ERA, 30.4 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 44.7% groundball rate in 46 2/3 innings.  Treinen has been with the Dodgers since signing a one-year, $10MM deal five years ago after the A’s non-tendered him.

Treinen has worked 149 2/3 regular season innings for the Dodgers from 2020-24, adding another 33 1/3 across four different postseasons.  He remained the go-to reliever for Dodgers manager Dave Roberts in tough spots as the club climbed through the postseason to win a championship.  He made nine appearances this postseason, getting more than three outs in five of them.  Treinen was the winning pitcher in the decisive Game 5 of the World Series against the Yankees, stepping up with 2 1/3 scoreless innings.

Drafted in the seventh round by the A’s out of South Dakota State University in 2011, Treinen was shipped to the Nationals in January 2013 as part of a three-team deal that brought the Mariners Mike Morse.  Somewhat of an afterthought in that deal, Treinen worked his way up to a high-leverage role in the Nationals’ bullpen by 2016.  Treinen had a rough first half in 2017, and A’s GM Billy Beane made sure to reacquire the hard-throwing pitcher he’d drafted six years prior.  The A’s sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in that deal, bringing back Jesus Luzardo, Treinen, and Sheldon Neuse.

The trade back to Oakland proved a turning point in Treinen’s career, as he blossomed into one of the game’s best relievers. In fact, Treinen’s 0.78 ERA in 2018 stands as the lowest mark in MLB history for a pitcher with at least 80 innings.  The combination of a temporary setback in 2019 (perhaps related to a back injury) and Treinen’s rising arbitration salaries led to the aforementioned non-tender, however.

Though Treinen had some struggles in the shortened 2020 season, he remained healthy and even picked up a save in Game 5 on the way to his first ring.  The Dodgers re-upped him for two years and $17.5MM with a club option for a third year.  He posted a superb 2021 season, but the following two years would be plagued by injuries.

Treinen was limited to a mere five regular season innings from 2022-23, due to a shoulder injury that culminated in November 2022 labrum and rotator cuff surgery.  The Dodgers had previously secured a 2024 option that increased based on innings pitched, allowing them to retain Treinen for just $1MM this year.  He made his season debut in May due a bruised lung, hitting the IL again in August with hip discomfort.

Given that the Mets intend to use Clay Holmes as a starting pitcher, the Treinen deal is just the second significant relief contract of the offseason, after the Red Sox signed Aroldis Chapman five days prior.  Treinen will again slot into the late innings for the Dodgers alongside fellow righties Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech.

The Dodgers made a pair of notable signings Sunday evening, re-signing Treinen shortly after adding outfielder Michael Conforto on a one-year deal.  The spotlight as we head into the Winter Meetings in Dallas, however, was on the Mets’ record-shattering 15-year, $765MM deal with Juan Soto.  The Dodgers were in the mix for Soto, but never seemed to be the favorite.  The Dodgers did make a splash already this winter by signing Blake Snell to a five-year, $182MM deal with deferrals.

With the additions of Snell, Conforto, and Treinen and an extension for Tommy Edman, RosterResource pegs the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax payroll at about $332MM, in a year where the fourth tax bracket sits at $301MM.  Given that the Dodgers already exceeded that mark by signing Snell, adding Conforto and Treinen will in effect cost the Dodgers $58.8MM this year, given the club’s 110% tax bracket.

The Opener: Draft Lottery, Sasaki, Kelly

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As the Winter Meetings continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. 2025 Draft Lottery:

The primary highlight of Day 2 of the Winter Meetings today figures to be the 2025 draft lottery, which is scheduled to take place at 4:30pm CT this afternoon. The top six spots in next year’s draft will be decided by tonight’s lottery. The Rockies and Marlins are tied for the best odds at landing this year’s top pick with a 22.45% chance, while the Angels (17.96%) and Nationals (10.2%) are the only other teams with at least a 10% chance of landing the first overall pick. That’s not to say it’s impossible for another team to land it, however; the Guardians did so just last year despite just a 2% chance of their name being selected for the top pick. Every team that missed the playoffs in 2024 except for the Athletics and White Sox are eligible for tonight’s lottery.

2. Sasaki officially posted:

The long-awaited posting of NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki finally arrived yesterday, kicking off a 45-day window where he’ll be able to negotiate with MLB teams. Although clubs are now able to negotiate with Sasaki, it’s widely expected that he won’t actually sign with a club for quite some time. As an international player under the age of 25, Sasaki is considered an amateur by MLB and therefore subject to the league’s restrictions on international amateurs. That not only means that the righty can only sign for whatever teams are willing to offer him from their international bonus pools, but also that he’ll be ineligible to sign between December 15, when the 2024 international signing window closes, and January 15, when the 2025 international signing window opens.

Reporting to this point has suggested that Sasaki intends to sign during the 2025 period, meaning that the majority of his posting window will be occupied by time during which he’ll be able to meet and negotiate with teams but not actually be eligible to put pen to paper. Even so, the long-awaited free agency of a rare star-caliber talent for whom money won’t be the deciding factor should make for one of the more interest storylines of the offseason going forward, as all 30 clubs and their fans can at least theoretically dream on Sasaki choosing to sign with them.

3. Cubs, Kelly nearing deal?

Yesterday afternoon, reports emerged that the Cubs and free agent catcher Carson Kelly were close to an agreement on a deal. There’s been no word of progress on a deal since then, but it would be quite unusual for a deal to reach that stage and be reported on without eventually coming to fruition. It’s possible that more information regarding where things stand between the Cubs and Kelly will become available as soon as today, though it wouldn’t be a shock if the deal didn’t become official for a few days after an agreement is reached and terms are reported. That’s been the case with several free agents this winter, including Chicago’s own two-year deal with southpaw Matthew Boyd that was made official over the weekend.

Cubs Interested In A.J. Minter, Kyle Finnegan

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The Cubs have been expected to make moves to bolster their bullpen this offseason even after acquiring right-hander Eli Morgan from the Guardians last month, and two names have emerged that Chicago has reported interest in. Jon Morosi of MLB Network writes that the Cubs are among the teams with interest in left-hander A.J. Minter, while ESPN’s Jesse Rogers notes that the club has spoken to right-hander Kyle Finnegan.

Minter, 31, is one of the winter’s more interesting free agent relievers. The southpaw broke out with the Braves during the 2020 season and has been one of the better lefty relief arms in baseball since then with a 2.85 ERA and a matching 2.84 FIP in 243 innings over the past half-decade. In that time, he’s struck out 30.1% of his opponents while walking 7.8%. Among lefty relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season, Minter’s 3.05 SIERA ranks third in the majors behind only Josh Hader and Taylor Rogers.

That track record would seemingly be enough to line him up for one of the more lucrative relief contracts of the offseason, but Minter’s free agency is complicated by a difficult platform season. In 2024, Minter managed a solid 2.62 ERA but saw his strikeout rate dip to just 26.1% while his FIP ballooned up to 4.45 due primarily to an increase in home runs allowed. More problematic for Minter than those steps backward in peripherals, however, was the season-ending hip surgery Minter underwent back in August. Recent reporting has indicated that it’s not yet clear whether Minter will be ready to pitch at the outset of the 2025 season, a reality that could cast a shadow over his free agency if interested teams believe he’s ticketed for a substantial early-season absence.

As for Finnegan, the 33-year-old has spent all five seasons of his big league career with the Nationals but was non-tendered by the club last month. After impressing in his 2020 rookie campaign with a 2.92 ERA in 25 innings, Finnegan stood as the club’s primary closer throughout their recent rebuild. He racked up 88 saves over the next four seasons, pitching to a 3.62 ERA that was 13% better than league average in 265 2/3 innings of work during that time despite a somewhat lackluster 4.28 FIP.

Despite his gaudy save totals, which includes a 38-for-43 record (88.4% conversion rate) in save situations this past season, Finnegan’s numbers cast him as more of a middle reliever than a true closer. He’s struck out just 23.3% of opponents over the last four years while walking 9.3%, and while his 47.5% career groundball rate is certainly above average it’s not exactly exceptional as Finnegan ranks just 22nd among relievers with at least 200 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season by the metric. In that same timeframe, Finnegan’s 3.86 SIERA is well below average for a reliever and ranks just 55th among 70 qualifying relievers.

With that being said, Finnegan’s somewhat middling numbers throughout his career could make him relatively affordable on the open market, and the Cubs’ hesitance in recent years to commit to pricey guarantees for relievers could lead them to be intrigued by the upside offered by a hurler who averaged 97.4 mph on his fastball last year and offers late-inning experience that could benefit a mostly young bullpen that currently features Porter Hodge as its top high leverage option after the righty posted a dominant rookie campaign in 2024. Minter, by contrast, figures to a land a healthier guarantee so long as his market isn’t depressed by the health question marks surrounding him. MLBTR predicted the lefty to land a two-year, $16MM guarantee as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where he ranked 34th.

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