The Brewers still have business to attend to here in 2024, as they won the National League Central. They naturally still have aspirations of continuing to win through October and nabbing a World Series title. But the offseason is going to start in a few weeks regardless of what happens in the playoffs and plans have to be made. Owner Mark Attanasio was asked about some of the questions facing the club with Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporting on his responses. Most notably, Attanasio didn’t offer much insight on the club’s planned payroll for next year while downplaying the chances of the club re-signing shortstop Willy Adames.
On the payroll side of things, Attanasio didn’t really tip his hand. While the club’s strong performance this year has led to increased ticket revenue and strong TV ratings, the owner suggested that it may end up a wash with the club receiving less revenue sharing.
“We have a budget every year,” Attanasio said. “Revenue isn’t just ticket revenue; it (includes) beverage and sponsorships, all of which are strong. (There’s) also revenue sharing, which we’ve talked about a lot. The way that the revenue sharing model works, everybody puts their money in the pot and then it gets recalibrated. The more money you make on a comparative basis, the less revenue sharing you get.”
Attanasio also went on to highlight that the club will face some uncertainty in terms of their TV revenues. “We’ve got local media – some would say challenges, but I would say opportunities – with the challenges at Diamond (Sports Group) and Bally’s. If you look to the medium term and not just the short term, I look at that as opportunities because of the ability to control our digital rights, which are very valuable. And that may occasion a step back next year.” Per Hogg, Attanasio clarified that “a step back” meant less TV revenue coming in, not necessarily less money going out to the player payroll.
Diamond has been in a limbo state for quite some time now. Reports emerged in the 2022-23 offseason that the company, which owns Bally Sports networks, was in a bad financial position. The company filed for bankruptcy just before the 2023 season kicked off but has since tried to stay afloat. It’s not yet clear if their efforts to continue operating will ultimately be successful.
Though the company has continued to put together broadcasts for some clubs, their total portfolio has shifted. They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks in 2023. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs. The Brewers have been fairly untouched so far but Hogg’s piece notes that their deal with Diamond expires after the 2024 season, making their 2025 TV revenue a big unknown at this point.
There are many moving parts between the gate revenue, uncertainty with the broadcast situation and the revenue sharing. Since the club continues to perform well on the field but is facing those questions about the business side of things, perhaps it’s fair to expect that the payroll won’t be wildly shifting in either direction.
The club’s payroll has generally fallen in the middle of the league, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Attanasio purchased the club in 2005 and the club has never been higher than 13th in terms of player spending since then. Since the pandemic, the Brewers have been in the range of 19th to 22nd among the 30 clubs in the majors. This year, they were 22nd with an Opening Day budget of $104MM.
Despite those financial limitations, there has been a lot of on-field success. This is the sixth time in the past seven years that Milwaukee has cracked the postseason, missing by just a single game in 2022.
Per RosterResource, the club only has $39MM committed to next year’s roster, though that number doesn’t really reflect the offseason picture. Rhys Hoskins has an $18MM player option that he will surely trigger on the heels of a down year. There’s a $4MM buyout, so he’ll add $14MM to the budget by sticking around for next year. The club will surely pick up club options on Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Colin Rea, adding another $21.25MM.
That would get the total number up to the $75MM range, before accounting for arbitration raises. Aaron Civale is making $4.9MM this year and should get a bump of a few million. Hoby Milner and Joel Payamps each made around $2MM this year and will get bumps. William Contreras will qualify for the first time and should be able to get a notable raise with his strong career to date. Players like Jake Bauers, Bryse Wilson, Eric Haase, Trevor Megill and Nick Mears are also in line for arb raises.
Depending on which of those players are tendered contracts and where the salaries ultimately end up, the Brewers could wind up fairly close to this year’s $104MM payroll before even making any offseason moves. Some trades could always free up some cash, but the club might not have a lot of powder dry to bring back Adames, which Attanasio was frank about.
“He’s going to get an enormous free-agent contract and I’m very happy for him and his family, and we’ll give it our best shot,” Attanasio said. “But there’s a lot deeper pockets out there. That’s just the reality.”
Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but has had a strong bounce back this year. He hit 32 home runs and drew walks in 10.8% of his plate appearances. His .251/.331/.462 line translated to a 119 wRC+, indicating he was 19% above league average at the plate overall. He also stole 21 bases in 25 tries. His defensive reviews weren’t as strong as previous years, with -16 Defensive Runs Saved and 0 Outs Above Average, though his career tallies are still positive in both of those metrics. Even with the diminished grades for his glovework, FanGraphs still considered him to be worth 4.8 wins above replacement on the year.
As a solidly above average shortstop going into his age-29 season, his free agency has a lot of comparables to Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. All three of them were in similar positions as they hit the open market. Báez and Story each got $140MM over six years while Swanson got $177MM over seven.
The Brewers have only once given out a contract anywhere near that range, with the extension for Christian Yelich getting to $188.5MM. Apart from that, the largest contract in franchise history was $105MM for Ryan Braun back in 2011, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.
Given the club’s track record and current budgetary question marks, and Attanasio’s straightforward comments, the odds of Adames returning to Milwaukee seem to be quite low. Assuming that comes to pass, they will recoup draft pick compensation by making him a qualifying offer, which he will reject.
The club has a couple of in-house options to cover for Adames, as both Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz came up as shortstops in the minors. They have posted strong defensive grades primarily at second and third base this year respectively and either could be a candidate to move back to short going forward. Neither has qualified for arbitration yet, so it would be a low-cost solution to Adames’ departure if the club goes that route. They would then have to address either second or third base but could find internal solutions for that issue as well. The club has toyed with Sal Frelick being moved to third as a solution to its crowded outfield picture, though injuries have allowed him to stay in the outfield for now. Prospect Tyler Black is also a possibility at the hot corner going forward.
There will be many questions to be answered in the weeks and months to come. For now, the club will be focused on winning the games in front of them, which could also impact the upcoming winter. A lengthy playoff run would lead to more gate and TV revenue, which could perhaps impact how the front office and ownership answer some of these questions.
