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Free Agent Notes: LeMahieu, Realmuto, Arihara, Hand

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The Mets “recently contacted” infielder DJ LeMahieu, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The fight for LeMahieu appeared to be between his previous team, the Yankees, as well as the Blue Jays, but it would be difficult to count the deep-pocketed Mets out of the mix. Signing LeMahieu would enable the Mets to send Jeff McNeil from second to third base, though it’s unclear what that would mean for J.D. Davis, who started the majority of Mets games at the hot corner in 2020.

  • New Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and Jeff Berry, the agent for free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, had a discussion Monday, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic relays. Negotiations did not occur during that talk, but Dombrowski made sure to mention that the Phillies want Realmuto back, per Montemurro. They have made Realmuto an offer, Heyman relays.
  • The Rangers are among the teams “believed” to have interest in right-hander Kohei Arihara, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The 28-year-old Arihara, whom the Nippon Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball posted earlier this offseason, logged a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 836 innings. MLB teams have until Dec. 26 to sign Arihara.
  • Minnesota native Brad Hand, one of the top relievers on the open market, told Darren Wolfson of SKOR North that he’d “love to play”  for the Twins in 2021. However, the southpaw isn’t sure if the Twins are interested in signing him. Hand reached free agency when the division-rival Indians declined his $10MM club option after last season, which came as a surprise considering the 30-year-old was one of baseball’s top relievers in 2020.

Howie Kendrick Retires

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Free-agent infielder Howie Kendrick announced Monday on his Instagram account that he has decided to retire, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was among those to report.

This concludes an outstanding career for the 37-year-old Kendrick, who entered the professional ranks as a 10th-round pick of the Angels in 2002. Kendrick was regularly a formidable offensive presence in their uniform, even earning his lone All-Star nod in 2011. The Angels wound up trading Kendrick to the Dodgers in 2014 for left-hander Andrew Heaney, though Kendrick’s numbers dipped somewhat in their uniform. Kendrick’s Dodgers days concluded when they dealt him to the Phillies in 2016. His tenure in Philly also didn’t last long, as the club traded him to the Nationals during the ensuing season.

The move to Washington couldn’t have worked out much better for Kendrick, who was an integral part of the Nats from the 2017-19 regular seasons. Above all, his contributions during the team’s first-ever run to a World Series title in 2019 will never be forgotten by the franchise or its fans. Kendrick hit a grand slam in Game 5 of that year’s NLDS against the Dodgers, which helped the Nationals to a series-deciding win, and continued his heroics during the Fall Classic. With the Nats in danger of losing Game 7 to the Astros, Kendrick smacked a two-run homer in the seventh inning that gave the Nats a 3-2 lead they never relinquished.

Last season didn’t go well for Washington or Kendrick, whose numbers slid during an injury-shortened campaign, though he’ll always be regarded as a key component of their title-winning club and someone who was consistently a quality producer. Kendrick slashed .294/.337/.430 with 127 home runs and 126 stolen bases across 6,421 big league plate appearances, and he made upward of $71.6MM during his time in the majors, according to Baseball-Reference. MLBTR wishes Kendrick the best in retirement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/19/20

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The latest minor league moves from around baseball…

  • The Phillies have signed right-hander Neftali Feliz to a minor league contract, according to reporter Silfredo Melo (hat tip to Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101).  The deal contains an invitation to Philadelphia’s big league Spring Training camp.  A veteran of nine MLB seasons and the winner of the 2010 Rookie Of The Year Award, Feliz hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2017, as he spent 2018 with the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A team and a minors deal with the Mariners in April 2019 didn’t materialize into any playing time in Seattle’s farm system.  Multiple injuries hampered Feliz’s very promising career, but there’s no risk for the bullpen-needy Phillies in seeing if Feliz (who is still only 32) has anything left in the tank.  This is the second time that Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has acquired Feliz — the righty is one of Dombrowski’s first signings in Philadelphia and he was one of the executive’s last signings in Detroit, as the Tigers signed Feliz less than a month before Dombrowski and the club parted ways in August 2015.

The Phillies' Path To Dave Dombrowski

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  • The Phillies’ hiring of Dave Dombrowski as their new president of baseball operations caught many around in the sport by surprise, including Dombrowski himself on some level.  As Jayson Stark of The Athletic (subscription required) writes in his chronicle of Philadelphia’s front office search, “In a little more than 30 hours, Dave Dombrowski had gone from ’sorry’ to ’when do I start?’ And he’d never seen it coming.”  Stark’s piece details the many ins and outs of the Phillies’ search, which a close but ultimately fruitless courtship of Twins GM Thad Levine, and Dombrowski himself twice rejecting the team’s overtures to focus on his position as part of a group attempting to bring an MLB franchise to Nashville.  After Dombrowski learned that MLB was unlikely to either expand or relocate a team any time soon, he gave renewed consideration to the Phillies’ pitch and a deal came together quite quickly.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/15/20

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The latest minor league moves from around the sport…

  • The Cardinals have signed infielder Max Moroff to a minors contract that contains an invitation to the Cards’ big league Spring Training camp, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors reports (Twitter link).  A veteran of 104 Major League games with the Pirates and Indians from 2016-19, Moroff has a .183/.277/.319 slash line over 244 career plate appearances, though his ability to play second base, third base, and shortstop makes him a useful bench asset.  Moroff signed a minor league deal with the Mets last winter.
  • The Phillies signed utilityman Christian Bethancourt to a minor league deal, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reports (via Twitter).  The contract has an invite to the Phillies’ Major League spring camp.  Bethancourt inked a minors deal with Philadelphia last offseason but didn’t see any action in any big league games or at the Phils’ alternate training site.  Bethancourt hit .222/.252/.316 over 489 PA with the Braves and Padres from 2013-17, and he has since played in the Brewers’ minor league system and in South Korea with the KBO League’s NC Dinos.  Though Bethancourt is known for his ability to play multiple positions around the diamond, he’ll likely be used primarily as a catcher by the Phillies, Gelb notes, since the team is lacking in catching depth.

Cubs, Phillies Interested In Jackie Bradley Jr.

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Jackie Bradley Jr.’s market continues to percolate, as MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets that the Cubs and Phillies are the latest teams to be linked to the free agent outfielder.

Bradley is a known quantity to Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski from their time together with the Red Sox, and Bradley would address a big need for the Phils in center field.  The tandem of Roman Quinn and Adam Haseley are penciled into the center field job at the moment, but installing an everyday veteran like Bradley would both solidify the position and provide a big defensive upgrade.  Bradley’s left-handed bat would also be useful in a Philadelphia lineup that leans to the right.

Ian Happ provided both strong offense and some decently respectable (+1 Outs Above Average, -2 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.6 UZR/150) glovework as the Cubs’ regular center fielder in 2020, but Bradley obviously offers a lot more defensive value up the middle.  Now that Kyle Schwarber has been non-tendered, Happ could easily be shifted over to left field to accommodate Bradley in center.  Given the number of former Red Sox personnel within the Cubs organization, Bradley would also find a lot of familiar faces in Wrigleyville — to name two, manager David Ross and assistant general manager Craig Breslow were both former teammates in Boston.

Beyond Philadelphia and Chicago, four other clubs (the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Astros, and an unknown AL Central team) have also reportedly shown interest in Bradley’s services at various points in the offseason.  Toronto has also been heavily linked to George Springer, while the Astros haven’t yet ruled out a reunion with Springer, and the Red Sox and Phillies could also potentially be in the mix, though it isn’t yet clear how much money either of those teams are willing to spend this offseason.  Bradley could be seen as a “plan B” type of center field options for many Springer suitors, and he could be more of a primary target for a team like the Cubs that isn’t thought to have much payroll space available.  While not exactly an inexpensive sign, Bradley’s projected price tag could be as much as $100MM less than Springer’s next contract.

Vince Velasquez Drawing Trade Interest

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Before tendering right-hander Vince Velasquez a contract for the 2021 season, the Phillies received inquires into his availability, according to the Athletic’s Matt Gelb.

There’s no denying that Velasquez has a great arm. Making that arm work for him on the pitching mound has been an up-and-down endeavor for the 28-year-old, however. The six-year veteran is set to make somewhere between $3.8MM and $4.8MM in his final season before free agency – a palatable amount for a rotation arm should the Phillies ultimately decide to move him, especially without the hindrance of a long-term financial commitment.

Whether or not Velazquez qualifies as a rotation arm is a question that the Phillies themselves have waffled on the past couple of seasons. Out of 42 total appearances the last two years, 30 have been starts – but that’s compared to 69 out of 70 from 2016 to 2018.

Inconsistency has, in fact, been the constant for Velazquez. He mixes wipe-out stuff (10.5 K/9 over the last two seasons) with a too-high walk rate (9.1 BB%) and year-to-year arsenal uncertainty. His 93-94 mph fastball more-or-less sets the tone, but deciding on a second-best offering has been somewhat of a rollercoaster.

His slider, for example, had largely been an effective, if judicious selection for him his first few years in the rotation, but as it gained traction volume-wise, hitters took it to the tune of a .407 wOBA in 2019. His changeup, meanwhile, had fallen almost out of his arsenal entirely in 2018 and 2019 before finding its way back into the mix last season, when he threw it 14.3% of the time and limited hitters to a 26.7 HardHit%. He throws a sinker, sparingly, but it’s been thumped – except in 2016 and 2020 when it registered a .298 wOBA and 243 wOBA, respectively.

All in all, Velasquez has been good for roughly 1.3 bWAR per 150 innings over his Phillies tenure – though 146 2/3 innings in 2018 mark a career high. Still, he owns a 4.33 FIP and 4.21 xFIP, as well as an exactly-league-average 100 FIP- for his career. Even that, however, doesn’t really tell the tale, as he’s alternated above-average seasons and below-average seasons by that mark since joining Philadelphia’s rotation: 94, 125, 90, 115, and 91 from 2016 to 2020.

That there’s interest in Velasquez is hardly surprising. But pinning his value to the wall is difficult. To summarize: on average, he’s an average ML arm that manifests as either 9-10% better or 15-25% worse than average.

As of right now, he figures to start the 2021 season right back in the Philly rotation behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin, right alongside rookie Spencer Howard. Rumor is there’s a new decision-maker in town, however, as well as a new pitching coach, so this is their puzzle to solve.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia

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After a bit of uncertainty, the Phillies hired the guy they wanted as the first-ever president of baseball operations in team history – and he just so happens to be the only GM ever to take three different teams to the World Series. Dave Dombrowski now aims to take a two-point lead on that score in Philadelphia. To his own admission, however, “no one thinks the Phillies are one player away.” So there’s work to do. What that means exactly makes for the nebulous, but substantive difference between Dombrowski and the what-might-have-been “other” guy.

The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.

And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.

As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.

It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)

Takeaways From Dave Dombrowski’s Introductory Press Conference

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During a zoom call with reporters this afternoon (which was also streamed live on MLB.com), new Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski spoke on a number of different topics, including the timeline of his hiring and some of the plans for the organization moving forward. Here are some highlights…

  • On the timeline of this hiring: Team president and longtime friend Andy MacPhail reached out to Dombrowski on Saturday to try and connect him with Phillies managing partner John Middleton. The Phillies had been one of the clubs to contact Dombrowski early in the offseason, but he wasn’t interested at that time. What changed was that he was given some new information from the commissioner’s office, who recently told Dombrowski and the Nashville group that expansion wasn’t going to happen for a couple of years. With that timeline pushed back, Dombrowski decided to take Middleton’s call. They spoke on Tuesday, and by Wednesday they were coming to an agreement.
  • On immediate plans for free agency: Dombrowski doesn’t anticipate making wholesale changes in the organization right now. He repeated that his preference is to get to know the people currently installed within the organization, gauge their roles and responsibilities, strengths and so on before making any significant changes. The organization does plan to cut payroll from last season, which pours water on the idea that Dombrowski would run right over to sign J.T. Realmuto or anyone else to a monster contract.
  • On the whole, Dombrowski came across as very measured and patient in his approach. “I don’t think anyone thinks we’re a player away,” Dombrowski said of the Phillies, who are stuck in a nine-year playoff drought. When presented with the question of rebuild or retool, he unequivocally categorized the roster as a retooling situation.
  • On his trading record: Asked about a trade from his rearview that he regrets, Dombrowski mentioned dealing former Tigers infield prospect Eugenio Suarez to the Reds for righty Alfredo Simon – a transaction that occurred six years ago today. The thinking was that the Tigers had depth in the infield, and they needed an affordable starter. He also made a point to say that he’s “a big believer in young players.”
  • Clearly aware of his reputation as a wheeler and dealer, Dombrowski seemed to want to reset the record, at least to give him time to read reports, watch video, and get to know the organization. Trades made in the past, he noted, were more about matching value and team needs at the time, not as much about an inherent mistrust of young players. If he can trade for a player he likes, while giving up players he and the rest of his front office are less high on, that’s a given. But there are also times – like the Chris Sale trade in Boston – where Dombrowski knew he was giving up talented players. Sale, however, fit the timeline and scale of talent the Red Sox needed.
  • On relocating to Philadelphia: Dombrowski said that he’s planning to stay where he is for now, as nobody from the organization is going into the office. He also noted that he contracted COVID-19 about a month ago, and while it was not an easy process, he is fully recovered.
  • Lastly, to help build the GM profile, here are some quick-and-dirty strategic preferences Dombrowski noted. He’s on board with exit velocity and launch angles, but he still prefers hitters who use all fields. Dombrowski understands and agrees with the move away from stolen bases, but he’s not on the far end of that spectrum – he can still appreciate a stolen base or two. The closer mentality is not a myth, but nor is it unwise to use an arm in a high-leverage spot if that’s a manager’s preference. Dombrowski used to believe in building a bullpen around a closer and a setup man, but now depth is an important element. He has always believed in pitching and power arms. Don’t expect the Phillies to move to openers anytime soon, as he still aims for his starters to go seven innings, pitch count allowing.

Phillies Announce Dave Dombrowski As President Of Baseball Operations

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The Phillies got their guy. Loudly on the hunt for a veteran executive – for a personality big enough to match their sense of urgency – the Philadelphia Phillies coaxed two-time World Series winner Dave Dombrowski to leave his position in Nashville and answer the call.

The news broke yesterday, but today, the organization formally announced Dombrowski as their first-ever President of Baseball Operations. He signed for four years and $20MM, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca points out, that’s the most money handed out to a free agent so far this winter.

Dombrowski comes heavily decorated. He won the World Series in 1997 with the Marlins and in 2018 with the Red Sox. He built two pennant winners with the Detroit Tigers (2006, 2012). He has 31 total years of experience running an MLB franchise, and he’s the only general manager in MLB history to lead three different franchises to the World Series. That’s quite the feather in his cap. He’s also the only two-time winner of Baseball America’s Executive of the Year award.

In the press release, managing partner John Middleton said this of Dombrowski:

This is a great day for the Philadelphia Phillies. David Dombrowski is one of the most accomplished executives this great game has ever seen, and we are thrilled to welcome him to Philadelphia. Between David and Joe Girardi, we now have two of the best people in place to set us on the path back to where we want to be, and that is the postseason and contending for world championships.

Interestingly, the press release also made special mention of Dombrowski’s track record of success in the draft, listing Rondell White, Cliff Floyd, Charles Johnson, Cameron Maybin, Mark Kotsay, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, Nicholas Castellanos, Josh Beckett, Andrew Miller, and Rick Porcello among the standouts. That’s noteworthy particularly in the context of previous comments made by team president Andy MacPhail back in October when they began their search, per the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. :

Our R&D department has been good with one exception. I’m just being blunt. I look at Tampa. They’re able to unlock the hidden value or potential in minor-league players that have been around a while that they recognize something that we’re not picking up on yet. I think that’s one thing that this franchise needs to improve on. Our R&D needs to obviously help with that.

Specifically, the Phillies were seeking someone with a track record of success in player evaluation. For more insight into Philadelphia’s thinking, let’s take a cue from Brad Pitt in Moneyball: What’s the problem? As Gelb helpfully reminds us, at the time of former GM Matt Klentak’s reassignment, Middleton said this:

I think the problem the Phillies have had for a hundred years is they don’t evaluate talent well.

Dombrowski’s win-now mentality is getting headline treatment, with assumptions being made about the free agent dollars Dombrowki will spend and the prospects he will trade away. The Phillies themselves, however, are underlining some other aspects of Dombrowski’s resume. Player evaluation plays a role in every aspect of roster building, of course. Still, it’s intriguing that system building has been at the forefront of Philly’s messaging in the early going.

Dombrowski will answer questions from the media this afternoon.

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