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NL Notes: Knebel, Phillies, Mets Coaches, Reds

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In a piece for the The Athletic, Matt Gelb recaps the frantic lead-up to the Phillies’ signing of right-handed reliever Corey Knebel, which included an unfortunately timed trip to Mexico and a number of insightful quotes from Knebel himself. One particular quote of note is that Knebel and Philadelphia “entertained” a two-year contract before ultimately settling on a one-year, $10MM guarantee.

While Knebel is the presumptive closer for his new club at this time, neither he nor president Dave Dombrowski have confirmed as such. Accordingly, Knebel says he’s using the personal risk of a one-year contract as motivation to regain the form that made him one of the game’s most dominant arms from 2017-2018. As the “$10MM” portion of his latest contract indicates, however, Knebel may not need much more motivation to regain elite status at the back of a pen. After all, a newfound reliance on his curveball led to the right-hander spinning 25 plus innings of 2.45 ERA ball with the Dodgers last season.

While health and its corresponding impact on effectiveness is always a question with pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery, the Phillies front office was surely pleased by Knebel demonstrating some of the best control he’s had in his career. Further dampening health concerns were Knebel’s strikeout abilities, which were down during the season from his own lofty 2017-2018 heights, but were still solidly above average and exploded in the playoffs— in 5+ innings the right-hander struck out 11 batters against just one walk.

In other news out of the National League…

  • The Mets have been one of baseball’s busiest teams during the lockout thus far, and have been the runaway winner in activity over the past 48 hours. The team already reeled in its biggest coaching fish of the offseason back in December when they hired Buck Showalter, but they have since announced plans to hire a number of other coaches around him. Among the recent coaches set to join the Mets coaching staff are first base coach Wayne Kirby, third base coach Joey Cora, and hitting coach Eric Chávez, who was successfully wooed away from the crosstown Yankees. Mike Puma of the New York Post explains (via Twitter) the reason none of these coaching additions have yet been made official. Puma states that every prospective hire is receiving a “very thorough” background check, which is likely delaying an official announcement from the club on this trio of reported coaches. It remains to be seen if this thoroughness is delaying the hire of the team’s alleged high-profile mystery bench coach as well. That the club is being methodical in its search for new club personnel should register as a shock to no one, with several high-profile members enjoying unceremonious ends to their New York tenures in recent years.
  • Bob Nightengale reports that the Reds have signed center fielder Lorenzo Cedrola to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. A signee out of Venezuela with some prospect pedigree, Cedrola was traded by Boston to Cincinnati back in 2018 for international bonus pool space. The 23-year-old will now look to continue his work in the Reds farm system, where he’s fresh off his first Triple-A promotion and an overall .315/.354/.458 season. His 10 home runs across 115 games last season easily represent a career high, though Cedrola’s 10 for 18 showing on the basepaths could use some work if he’s to crack the Reds’ uncertain outfield mix in 2022.

Minor League Notes: WooSox, Listach, Tigers

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While the first full week of 2022 remains light on the type of transactional news baseball fans are usually accustomed, there has been no shortage of big news on deals of a different kind. There’s potential for that trend to continue, as Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe reports the Red Sox’ Triple-A affiliate, the Worcester Red Sox, is being eyed as an acquisition target by sports and entertainment company Endeavor. The Beverly Hills-based company is no stranger to minor league acquisitions, having scooped up ten minor league affiliates at the end of last year. Silverman notes that a $50MM bid by Endeavor for the Red Sox affiliate has seemingly already been rejected. That said, ownership groups are permitted to own up to 24 minor league teams at a time, meaning Endeavor has plenty of room to continue its pursuit of the Worcester outfit and add several other affiliates to its portfolio.

Some other minor league notes from around the league:

  • Per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the Phillies have hired former big-league shortstop and 1992 AL Rookie of the Year Pat Listach as the bench coach for their High-A affiliate, the Jersey Shore BlueClaws. Listach played in parts of six seasons with the Brewers and Astros and has been a part of multiple major league coaching staffs, including with the Nationals, Cubs, and Astros, and has held minor league roles with the Cubs, Dodgers, and Mariners. Most recently, he served as the manager of the Mexican League’s Acereros de Monclova, whom he led to the playoffs in 2019 and 2021.
  • On Thursday, the Tigers unveiled their new-look set of minor league coaching staffs. Included among the new faces in Detroit’s ranks are 2016 World Series-winning coach Gary Jones, taking over as Triple-A manager, and former Tigers third baseman Gabe Alvarez, hired as the organization’s new Double-A manager. Chris McCosky of The Detroit News helpfully compiled the full list of Detroit’s development personnel changes here.

Under-The-Radar Star Can Shape Phillies Offseason

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In 2021 an NL East pitcher threw close to 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and received Cy Young votes for his pitching prowess. Elsewhere in the division, a pitcher threw over 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and remains relatively obscure. That first pitcher was Mets superstar Jacob deGrom. The second pitcher was lefty Ranger Suárez, and he may be the key to the Phillies’ offseason.

Coming into the season, Suárez was even more obscure than he is coming out of it. An international signing out of Venezuela in 2012, the left-handed Suárez climbed the ranks of the Phillies farm system to little fanfare. After reaching the Major Leagues as a 22-year-old in 2018, and in two ensuing stints in 2019 and an illness-interrupted 2020, Suárez did little to distinguish himself from the pack. Through 67 innings across those first three looks, the Phillies pitcher sported a 4.66 ERA that ERA estimators largely validated. The only standout skill in that modest sample was an ability to generate groundballs, as opposing hitters smacked pitches into the dirt 52.7% of the time when facing the young Philly.

In May of this past season, Suarez was called up from Triple-A Lehigh for what is likely the final time in his career, as he joined the bullpen to back up a top-heavy Philadelphia rotation. Pitching in mostly multi-inning appearances, Suarez didn’t yield an earned run until his twelfth appearance of the season. This roll continued, even if Suarez proved fallible and put up a 2.25 ERA in the next 20 innings until the trade deadline. This dominant run through July convinced the Phillies to promote the lefty into their rotation, replacing Spencer Howard, the starter Suarez regularly mopped up innings for, after a trade with the Texas Rangers.

As a starter, Suarez rode his hot streak to the end of the season, pitching to a 1.51 ERA in 65 plus innings, and securing Philadelphia’s 82nd win of the season. All told, the breakout left-hander pitched to a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings. A 2.72 FIP and 3.51 SIERA portend some regression, but above average command and strikeout abilities, plus a whopping 58.2% groundball rate, indicate that there was more than just luck at play in that final ERA. Additionally, Suárez was one of the best in the league at inducing soft contact per Statcast, whose metrics are even more bullish than those FIP or SIERA figures.

It’s rare for a season of this caliber to fly so under the radar come awards season, though Phillies advocates were likely a bit busy banging the Cy Young drum in favor of ace Zack Wheeler. For historical context though, a case could be made that the dual-role pitching Suarez was worthy of some down-ballot attention, if nothing else. After all, previous pure relievers Eric Gagne, Rollie Fingers, and former-Philly closer Steve Bedrosian all won the league’s top pitching award with comparable, and arguably inferior campaigns in the past. Award-winner Bryce Harper, who took home NL MVP honors in 2021, stumped for his teammate to win the NL Comeback Player of the Year award that ultimately went to Buster Posey. 

All of that’s to say, for as unheralded as he was, Ranger Suarez was very good in 2021. Per Fangraphs’ RosterResource page, the left-handed pitcher is expected to slot into a rotation behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, while Texas acquisitions Kyle Gibson and Hans Crouse round out the group. Rotation mainstay Zach Eflin, who flashed breakout potential the past two seasons before illness and knee troubles derailed his most recent campaign, should return early next season if he recovers as expected from September knee surgery.

Each member of that pitching squad carries some combination of health risk and questions about what they can reasonably produce in 2022: Wheeler pitched a career-high number of innings in 2021 after a shortened 2020 campaign; Nola sported an uncharacteristically high 4.63 ERA last season; Gibson’s bottom-line numbers nosedived following his trade to Philadelphia; Crouse has 270 professional innings to his name thanks to injuries, only 7 of which have come at the Major League level; Suárez is unlikely to post another ERA close to 1.00; and Eflin will be returning from surgery. 

One could look at these risks and determine that the Phillies need more depth, should anyone in this group fail to shoulder the bulk of a baseball season’s workload. A rosier stance however, is that the Phillies have one of the best rotations they’ve had in some time. Instead of relying on Vince Velasquez and a post-prime Jake Arrieta, or Matt Moore and Chase Anderson as they did this past year to fill a rotation, the Phillies front office may be looking to add that type of player entirely as depth. That is of course, unless President Dave Dombrowski and GM Sam Fuld see another opportunity for improvement. 

One creative tactic aimed towards improvement may be for the Phillies to shift Suarez back to the bullpen, at least once Eflin returns or more rotation depth is acquired. As surprising as that move would be on the surface, it would allow Suarez to continue in a dual-role that he’s already proved exceptional. Further, it would bolster a bullpen that finished near the back of the pack in most categories and tied for first in blown saves with 34. It would also equip manager Joe Girardi with a shutdown lefty out of the pen, as Suarez was the toughest pitcher for lefties to hit in 2021. This is in contrast to the bullpen’s current top left-hander, José Alvarado, who walked 47 batters in 55 plus innings last season. 

While the Phillies are currently $29MM under the current CBA’s luxury-tax threshold (per RosterResource’s Jason Martinez), it’s unlikely that they’ll devote a sum greater than the $10MM it took to sign right-hander Corey Knebel to further improve the bullpen. More modest bullpen additions aren’t off the table, as free agent lefty Andrew Chafin and neutral-splits right-hander Colin McHugh are speculative fits that can probably be had for a lower annual amount than Knebel. Regardless of target, however, no free agent addition will prove as cost-effective as shifting the pre-arbitration Suárez to the back of the bullpen.

The versatility afforded by Suárez should not stop the Phillies from reinforcing their rotation depth and bullpen, but it does lessen the need to sink major resources into both. This flexibility will allow the Phillies to turn the bulk of their attention to the position player side of things, an area for the team that hasn’t looked this bare in quite a few offseasons. Half of the lineup is set, but vacancies and question marks are abound in the other half, as left field, center field, third base, and shortstop are set to be filled with players short on Major League success or players coming off down 2020 seasons.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022.  With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.

This list is by no means exhaustive.  Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact.  It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout.  While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.

Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt).  However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen.  It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts.  Onto the list…

Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons.  In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure.  Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic.  With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.

Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign.  It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).

Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes.  Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans.  Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.

Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March.  The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal.  Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.

Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee.  With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon.  The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season.  For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns.  There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.

Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross’ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023.  It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild.  However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames.  Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.

Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023.  Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles.  There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal).  If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.

Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts’ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options.  While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015.  There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.

Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.”  This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021.  Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.

Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish.  Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations.  The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.

Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team.  Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known.  Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized.  The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.

Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023.  An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars.  Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year.  There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim.  With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.

Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019.  If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year.  Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.

Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign.  If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining.  While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning.  One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise.  Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.

Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end.  New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout.  Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.

Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term.  That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement.  The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job.  Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.

Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year.  The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season.  If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.

White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length.  Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series.  Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades.  Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.

Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records.  Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change.  It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason.  Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.

How Can The Phillies Solidify Their Uncertain Center Field Mix?

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Few teams around the league have as acute a need in center field as the Phillies. Last season, Philadelphia got just a .230/.298/.363 showing at the position. That production was 24 points below the league average by measure of wRC+, the fourth-worst offense around the league.

The bulk of the at-bats were taken by Odúbel Herrera and Travis Jankowski, both of whom were outrighted off the 40-man roster after the season. Among the remaining options, Matt Vierling, Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley look to be the favorites for playing time.

That’s a suboptimal group for a win-now club, and they’re likely to pursue upgrades coming out of the lockout. In a reader mailbag, Matt Gelb of the Athletic wrote this week that the Phils do “not view any of the internal options in center field as viable everyday players in 2022.” It seems president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld and the rest of the front office are planning to look for a new regular.

Both Moniak and Haseley are former top ten picks, with Moniak going first overall back in 2016. There’s no question both players’ stocks have fallen over the years since, though. Moniak is coming off a .238/.299/.447 showing with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He’s still just 23 years old, but Baseball America wrote midseason that many evaluators now project the left-handed hitter “as a fourth or fifth outfielder” without any standout physical tools.

Haseley has a generally solid minor league track record, but he’s been a below-average hitter over his big league tenure. Across 355 plate appearances, he owns a .264/.322/.373 line with five home runs. The left-handed hitter has quality bat-to-ball skills, but he’s not walked a whole lot and has hit for virtually no power. He opened the 2021 season as the Phils’ center fielder but took a leave of absence after nine games. Assigned to Lehigh Valley upon returning to the team, he hit some uncharacteristic minor league struggles (.224/.282/.295 over 170 trips to the plate).

Each of Moniak or Haseley could remain on hand as depth, but Gelb suggests the Phils could be willing to trade either player coming out of the transactions freeze. As he notes, both players were selected under previous GM Matt Klentak, and the new regime may be more willing to part with the one-time top prospects. Their respective trade values have surely fallen from their peaks, but it’s likely there’d still be moderate interest around the league in each player were the Phils to make them available.

Regardless of whether Moniak and/or Haseley begin the year in Philadelphia, it seems evident the club will look outside the organization for help. Yet that desire is complicated by the barren free agent outlook at the position. Starling Marte was the only slam-dunk regular center fielder available in free agency this offseason. He’s already signed with the division-rival Mets; utilityman Chris Taylor re-upped with the Dodgers.

Kris Bryant has some center field experience, but it’d be a stretch to rely on him to man the position everyday. He’s better suited for third base and/or the corner outfield. Other than Bryant, the center field candidates still available are limited. Herrera’s probably not coming back. At age 38, Brett Gardner’s not an ideal fit for a regular centerfield role. Kevin Pillar, Danny Santana and Jarrod Dyson are all fourth/fifth outfield types themselves.

For the Phils to find a definitive upgrade, that probably requires turning to the trade market. Byron Buxton would have been a prime target, but he and the Twins agreed to a nine-figure extension. Who else might the Phils look into?

Controllable Stars With Questionable Trade Availability

There are a few big names who rival clubs have inquired about in recent months, but it’s not clear any of them will wind up on the move. The Diamondbacks won’t entirely rule out the possibility of trading Ketel Marte, but they’ve shown little inclination to do so. That’d take a massive haul, and Marte’s probably a better fit defensively at second base than he is in center.

The Orioles are willing to listen to offers on breakout star Cedric Mullins. Being amenable to offers is far different than actively trying to trade the player, though, and the O’s are under no pressure to make a deal. Mullins is controllable for another four seasons (barring changes to the service time structure). He’s not yet making much more than the league minimum salary, and the Orioles can’t rebuild forever. As with Marte, he may not be truly “untouchable,” but a serious offer for Mullins would require parting with plenty of young talent. That’s no easy move for any club, but it’d be especially difficult for the Phillies, whose farm system Baseball America slotted among the league’s bottom five in August.

The Pirates have gotten calls on Bryan Reynolds, another All-Star controllable through 2026. Reports in advance of the trade deadline suggested Pittsburgh was more apt to build around Reynolds than trade him, though. They rebuffed inquiries from multiple clubs this summer, and there’s little indication they’ve changed their tune about moving him over the intervening months.

Most Straightforward Trade Candidates

If those stars aren’t attainable, where could the Phillies look? The most obvious answer is to Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, who’s due $14.5MM this year (including the buyout on a 2023 club option). Philadelphia has already been linked to the three-time Gold Glove winner this offseason. There’s no question he’d be an upgrade defensively, as he’s perhaps the game’s top gloveman in the outfield. Kiermaier’s bat tends to hover around league average, but that’d still be a marked improvement over the production Philly got in 2021. The concern with Kiermaier is one of durability; he’s only once exceeded 500 plate appearances in a season, with his all-out playing style taking a significant toll on his body over the years.

Kiermaier’s teammate, Manuel Margot, might also be available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary in his final year of club control. He’s a bit worse than Kiemaier on both sides of the ball, but he’s also more affordable and is a strong defensive option in his own right.

The A’s are generally expected to retool this winter. Oakland hasn’t traditionally been willing to undergo a complete teardown and rebuild, and the motivation for their anticipated roster shakeup this winter would be financial. At a projected $2.8MM salary, Ramón Laureano is less likely to wind up on the move than some of his higher-priced teammates. Teams figure to at least check in with the A’s about Laureano’s availability coming out of the lockout, but his status is complicated by a performance-enhancing drug suspension that’ll linger into the first month of next season.

There are a couple talented but underperforming options who might be worth a change-of-scenery attempt. Víctor Robles has been surpassed by Lane Thomas on the Nationals’ center field depth chart. It’s possible Washington makes him available, although pulling off a deal is made more difficult by the intra-divisional factor. The Rockies could trade Raimel Tapia. In the cases of both Robles and Tapia, though, there’s a chance neither player proves to be all that definitive an upgrade over the Phils’ in-house options.

If Philadelphia’s amenable to taking on money, a few additional possibilities arise. The Blue Jays’ Randal Grichuk is due a bit more than $20MM combined over the next two seasons. The Yankees’ Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, is signed through 2025 at around $10MM per year. Neither player would land that kind of contract were they free agents now, so Toronto or New York would have to offset salary in some fashion to incentivize Philadelphia to make that kind of move.

There’s also some chance the Dodgers are open to moving Cody Bellinger, who’s in line for a $17MM salary after avoiding arbitration. Los Angeles isn’t just going to give Bellinger away — they’d have non-tendered him were that the case — but it’s not out of the question they make him available on the heels of a dismal 2021 season. As with Robles and Tapia, each member of this group comes with their own performance and/or injury question marks though.

Outside-The-Box Possibilities

The Astros have reportedly poked around the market for an impact center fielder of late. They’ll face similar challenges pulling off a deal as the Phils or anyone else. But if Houston managed to acquire someone like Mullins or Reynolds? Then their incumbent group of promising yet not quite established center fielders (Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and José Siri) might be available. Houston did trade Myles Straw at the deadline when he hadn’t been a traditional trade candidate, although they may not want to make a similar move unless they first pull in a controllable star from somewhere else.

The Angels saw top prospect Brandon Marsh make his big league debut in 2021. He struggled offensively, but he’s a highly-regarded defender who’s probably best suited in center. If Los Angeles brings Mike Trout back to play center, maybe they’d consider moving Marsh for the right offer, but it’s tough to see a swap that lines up between the two hopeful contenders.

The Twins aren’t trading Buxton, but could they be swayed on Max Kepler? He’s primarily a right fielder but he’s capable of holding his own in center. Kepler has taken a step back over the past two seasons after seeming to break out in 2019, but even his 2021 form would be a marked upgrade over what the Phils got last year. With young corner outfielders Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach also at the big league level, a Kepler trade can’t be completely ruled out. Yet it’d be a tough sell for a Twins’ front office that’s still hoping to contend in 2022.

There are different avenues for Dombrowski, Fuld and the front office to explore. But almost all of them come with some form of caveat or potential hold-up, making the need for center field help a complicated one for the Phillies (or other clubs in a similar position, for that matter) to address.

Phillies Sign Six Players To Minor League Deals

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Dec. 15: Bedrosian’s contract was actually agreed to on Dec. 1 but only formally announced by the team this week, MLBTR has learned. That explains any confusion surrounding how the deal was possible, as Bedrosian otherwise appeared ineligible to sign during the lockout by virtue of the fact that he ended the 2021 season on the Phillies’ Major League roster.

Dec. 14: The Phillies announced this evening that they’ve signed six players — all right-handed pitchers — to minor league contracts with invitations to big league Spring Training. Joining the organization are Cam Bedrosian, Andrew Bellatti, Jake Newberry, Joe Gatto, Tyler Cyr and Michael Kelly.

Bedrosian is the best-known of the group. He emerged as a high-leverage arm early in his career with the Angels, a stint highlighted by a brilliant 2016 campaign in which he pitched to a 1.12 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. Bedrosian remained in Anaheim through the end of 2020, but his formerly strong strikeout rate has dropped in recent seasons. That has come in conjunction with a downturn in fastball velocity from the 95-96 MPH range to around 92-93 over the past couple years.

The 2021 season was a struggle for Bedrosian, who split the year between the Reds, A’s and Phils. He combined to work 25 innings over 26 outings, posting a 5.04 ERA/5.27 SIERA. Bedrosian’s 19.8% strikeout percentage was a few points below the league average, while his 14.7% walk rate was a career-high. Still, the 30-year-old made a strong enough impression during a late-season run in Philadelphia to get another opportunity to crack the big league bullpen out of Spring Training. (As an interesting historical footnote, Bedrosian’s father Steve Bedrosian won the 1987 NL Cy Young Award in Philadelphia after saving a league-best 40 games).

Bellatti has appeared in two MLB seasons, six years apart. After working 23 1/3 innings of relief with the Rays in 2015, Bellatti bounced around between various high minors and independent clubs without getting a return opportunity in the majors. His long-awaited break came this past July, when he cracked the Marlins’ MLB roster.

The 30-year-old bounced on and off the Miami roster a few times down the stretch, averaging 94.3 MPH on his heater over a three-game cameo. He spent the bulk of the season with their top affiliate in Jacksonville, where he posted an impressive 1.52 ERA over 29 2/3 frames. Bellatti punched out a lofty 33% of opponents at the minors’ top level while walking a decent 8.7% of batters faced. He was outrighted off the 40-man roster and elected minor league free agency at the end of the season.

Newberry is the other of the Phils’ newcomers with MLB experience. The 27-year-old has suited up with the Royals in each of the past four campaigns. He’s tallied 70 2/3 cumulative innings over 65 relief outings, pitching to a 4.84 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers (21.9% and 12.7%, respectively). Newberry, who became a minor league free agent at season’s end after being outrighted off the Kansas City roster, has a 4.06 ERA in parts of four Triple-A seasons.

None of Gatto, Cyr nor Kelly has pitched in the big leagues, although Gatto and Kelly have been a part of clubs’ 40-man rosters in the past. Gatto, 26, split the 2021 season between the Rangers’ top two affiliates. He posted a 3.32 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates (29.2% and 8.1%, respectively) but never got a big league look in Texas. Cyr, 28, has spent his entire career in the Giants’ system, topping out at Triple-A, where he owns a 4.66 ERA. Kelly, 29, has pitched in the Padres, Orioles and Astros systems. He has a 4.76 ERA over four seasons at the minors’ highest level.

Phillies Notes: Schwarber, Knebel, Bullpen

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The Phillies, like most teams around the league, have plenty of work to do once the lockout is resolved and a new collective bargaining agreement is in place. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman writes the Phils “pursued [Kyle] Schwarber hard” prior to the lockout but weren’t able to finalize an agreement.

The 28-year-old Schwarber (29 in March) shook off a slow couple months to begin the 2021 season, ripping through MLB pitching at a Herculean clip throughout the summer and into the postseason. The longtime Cubs slugger inked a one-year deal with the Nats last winter, found himself traded to the Red Sox despite being on the injured list due to a hamstring injury, and finished the regular season with a combined .266/.374/.554 batting line and 32 home runs in just 471 plate appearances. Schwarber added three more homers in the playoffs, though he closed out October with an 0-for-15 skid following an epic grand slam in Game 3 of the ALCS.

When finished, the new collective bargaining agreement is expected to include a universal designated hitter, which would make it easier for the Phillies (or another team) to slide the defensively challenged Schwarber into the lineup. He could still see some reps in left field or even at first base, of course, but Schwarber would be viewed largely as a much-needed bat to pair with reigning MVP Bryce Harper in Philadelphia.

Schwarber ought to have plenty of other suitors, as he’s been linked to the Red Sox, Nationals, Marlins and others since the offseason began. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported not long ago that Schwarber is seeking a deal of at least three years and $20MM annually, though with enough competition the asking price could obviously further increase.

While supplementing the lineup with some help for Harper is a major goal, it wasn’t the top priority for Philadelphia this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made clear that solidifying the ninth inning was one of his top needs this winter, and the Phils look to have checked that box already.

Corey Knebel and the Phillies got their one-year, $10MM contract in just hours before the expiration of the 2016-21 CBA, and he’s expected to serve as the team’s closer in 2022, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Dombrowski noted that he did not promise that role to Knebel (link viaNBC Philly’s Jim Salisbury), but he strongly suggested as much, telling reporters that Knebel opted for a one-year deal in order “to show people that he’s a dominant closer again” now that he’s healthier.

Knebel, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019, saw his fastball velocity jump two miles per hour from the 94.6 mph he averaged in his abbreviated return to the mound in 2020. While his 29.7% strikeout rate didn’t match the ridiculous 40.2% mark he posted in Milwaukee from 2017-18, it was nevertheless a strong mark and a reminder that Knebel can be as  dominant as any reliever in the game when at his best.

Gelb suggests that a subsequent acquisition of Craig Kimbrel is unlikely to be in the cards, as the Phils aren’t likely to want to commit $26.5MM to a pair of relievers. Still, Knebel certainly won’t be the only addition to the ’pen. Said Dombrowski: “We’ve got a guy that we think will close games for us, and that’s a big start. Then we can kind of build the rest of the bullpen.”

The addition of Knebel and the Phillies’ one-year, $1.4MM deal with utilityman Johan Camargo pushed the team’s payroll to a bit more than $181MM — with a near-identical tally in terms of luxury obligations, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That’s well shy of last year’s $197MM end-of-season payroll and the even-larger $206.5MM in luxury obligations the team carried. Assuming the $210MM luxury-tax threshold is ultimately increased in a new CBA, the Phils could have quite a bit more luxury breathing room than the $29MM they already possess at the moment.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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Bryce Harper gave the Phillies exactly the type of season they hoped for when they signed him to the team’s first $300MM+ deal. Unfortunately, he couldn’t pitch the ninth inning (or the eighth inning), and the Phillies fell short of true contention yet again.

Guaranteed Contract

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $263MM through 2031
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP: $74MM through 2024
  • J.T. Realmuto, C: $95.5MM through 2025
  • Jean Segura, 2B:$15.485MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2023)
  • Didi Gregorius, SS: $15.25MM in 2022
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $19.75MM in 2022 (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)
  • Kyle Gibson, RHP: $7.6MM in 2022
  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $15.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM team option for 2024)
  • 2022 commitments: $130.7MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $506MM

Projected Salaries For Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Phillies did it: they finished with a better than .500 record. The Bryce Harper era began on the heels of an 80-82 season in 2018, but before the ink was dry, a new era was supposed to have begun in Philadelphia. In the third season of the Harper era, the Phillies finally reversed that record, finished 82-80 and in second place, their first winning season since 2011. It only took three years and an MVP season out of Harper to get them there.

And while it’s nice to be a winning team – well-deserving of a pat on the back – the Phillies fell short of true contention. Instead, Harper watched from home as a division rival won the World Series for the second time in the three years. That has to smart.

Still, there’s no revelation coming to Philadelphia. In terms of strategy, it’s likely to be the same game script for the Phillies moving forward, though they’ll shuffle the cards and hope for a different result. President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski is a fairly well-known commodity throughout the league, so if there’s a wrinkle coming in Philly’s team-building strategy, it might have to come from GM Sam Fuld.

The former outfielder has been with the Phillies for years, but his ascension to Dombrowski’s top lieutenant is less than a year old. As Grima Wormtongue to Dombrowski’s King Théoden, Fuld’s analytical approach should have taken root by now, but the organizational philosophy still seems relatively straight-forward: acquire players to help this team win today.

Looking back to Philly’s deadline moves, dealing five years of control over former top prospect Spencer Howard for a year and a half of Kyle Gibson is an old-school deadline add, though the inclusion of 23-year-old Hans Crouse hints at more nuanced thinking. That said, Crouse made two starts in the Majors after his arrival, so the Phils clearly see him as an option for innings in 2022.

The focus of the front office is putting a winning team on the field ASAP, and in this way, the Phillies are a breath of fresh air in an era popularized by “cute” front offices, constantly balancing short-term value with long-term flexibility. The Phillies may seem to be working with blunter instruments at times, but what sets the apart as an organization right now is that they don’t mind if everyone knows how badly they want to win.

In the dugout, there aren’t nearly as many tea leaves to read. Manager Joe Girardi needs to win baseball games. With whatever 26-and-40-man roster he has at his disposal come opening day, he needs to win games.

Since Charlie Manuel’s departure midway through the 2013 season, managers haven’t stayed overlong in Philadelphia. Each of Ryne Sandberg (278 games, .428 W-L%), Pete Mackanin (412 games, .422 W-L%), or newly-crowned NL Manager of the Year Gabe Kapler (324 games, .497 W-L%) lost their caps in relatively short order. Girardi (222 games, .495 W-L%) may be nearing a tipping point as well.

Girardi isn’t all that close to eclipsing his predecessors’ raw totals in terms of games managed, but if Girardi can make it through 2022, he’ll be the first to last three full seasons since Manuel. Getting sacked before the end of next season is hardly a fait accompli for Girardi, though his disappointing tenure has coincided with a green-lit era of full-go contention for the front office. Needless to say, expectations are high. Don’t be surprised to see Girardi as a high draft pick in your office’s first manager fired pool.

So what do Dombrowski and Fuld need to put Girardi in position to keep his job? The roster is tough to analyze, because in some regards, 2021 went exactly as planned. Harper won his second MVP award after slashing .309/.429/.615 with a league-leading 42 doubles, 35 home runs, 101 runs scored, and a robust 170 wRC+. Zack Wheeler led the Majors with 213 1/3 innings pitched, he was second among hurlers with 7.3 fWAR, and his 2.78 ERA/2.59 FIP were among the best marks in the game. He faced more batters than any other pitcher in the NL, and he struck out more of them (247) than any other pitcher in the NL. He finished second in voting for NL Cy Young.

If baseball were a two-man game, the Phillies might be the champs. Unfortunately, Harper and Wheeler’s outlandish success in 2021 is as much a cause for skepticism as it is optimism. After all, even with those stellar campaigns, the Phillies barely broke an even record. Harper and Wheeler should continue to be good, but it’s not fair to expect MVP and Cy Young seasons every year. That said, the duo forms a pretty solid foundation.

You can add J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola to that solid core. Nola tossed 180 innings, and though his bottom-line run-prevention numbers were sub-optimal (4.63 ERA), his 3.37 FIP, 29.8 percent strikeout rate, and 5.2 percent walk rate fall in line with career expectations and suggest Nola continues to be a solid front-of-the-rotation arm.

In the first year of his new five-year contract, Realmuto posted 3.5 rWAR and played his role as Harper’s running mate to perfection. He was a little nicked-up down the stretch, forcing a tad more playing time for Andrew Knapp and Rafael Marchan, but he still managed to play in 134 games and step to the plate 537 times. The catchers’ room already looks a little different with Garrett Stubbs and Donny Sands joining Realmuto and Marchan, but the bottom line here is that so long as Realmuto stays healthy, the Phillies ought to be a top-10 team in cacher fWAR again (they were 8th by fWAR in 2021).

At the risk of turning this into a bit of a ho-down, let’s keep two-stepping through the roster, where Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Gibson appear next. Hoskins and Gibson aren’t nearly the talents of the names above, but they ought to be solid contributors to a contending team.

Hoskins’ footspeed and defensive ability make him a limited player, but if he’s healthy, his bat belongs in the middle of the order. He is a career 122 wRC+ bat coming off a .247/.334/.530 batting line across 443 plate appearances. His peripherals are remarkably steady, even if his walk rate did fall a touch to a career-low 10.6% in 2021. Hoskins should plan to inch that number even a tad closer to his 14.3% career walk rate and let his power do the rest. As a designated hitter, he’s a grand option, but even wearing his first baseman’s glove, Hoskins figured to continue to be a 2-2.5 fWAR player. In brief, there’s nothing wrong with Hoskins’ roster spot.

If Hoskins is a bronze level bat, then Gibson is more-or-less the rotation equivalent. Where Hoskins brings power to the plate, Gibson’s value proposition is an uncanny ability to keep the ball on the ground. His 51.7% groundball rate in 2021 was right near his career average of 51.5% – well above the 41.2% league average mark. Keeping the ball on the ground helps Gibson keep the ball in the yard, which Gibson accomplished at rates he hadn’t hit since his late-twenties (0.84 HR/9, 11.1% HR/FB). Gibson’s 3.0 fWAR was the best mark of his career, and his 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP were close.

Beyond worm killing, Gibson’s calling card has been his reliability. A starter that takes the ball every five turns will start about 20% of his team’s games, and Gibson’s never started less than 15% of his. He’s a textbook first division number four starter, even entering his age-34 season.

One problem in team-building, of course, is asking players to move up a rung. If Gibson is your best starter, as he was with the Rangers last year, that’s not going to be a very good team. And if he’s your number three, as he was with the Phillies, that’s probably an average-ish team. That’s a simplistic take, as there are many ways to build a winning club, but the point here is a broader one about the depth of recent Phillies’ ballclubs: they don’t have it, and they need it. The six players above get a lot of guff for this Philly club, but they aren’t the problem. If anything, reliance on this sextet is the problem.

Bottom line, the Phillies have holes to fill, and they don’t have the talent pipeline to do so internally. So where to begin? The obvious place is the bullpen, which was a disaster: 27th with 1.1 fWAR, 25th with a 4.60 ERA, 27th with a 4.61 FIP, 21st with 36 saves, and of course, ripped from the headlines, tied with the Nats for the most blown saves in the game with 34. The bullpen was bad. Or rather, the bullpen pitched poorly. But bullpens are fickle, and they’re easier to turn around year-to-year than any other aspect of a roster.

So let’s start with fixing the offense, which should be a more urgent priority for Dombrowski. They need a centerfielder, and after declining McCutchen’s option, they need a left fielder as well. They could, conceivably, take the field on opening day with Alec Bohm and Didi Gregorius on the left side of the infield, but based on their 2021 production alone – ignoring their prospect pedigree and contract, respectively – both should be replaced. That’s half of the starting lineup that could use an upgrade. And yet, the Phillies remained one of the most inactive teams in the game prior to the roster freeze.

Centerfield remains the biggest hole on the Philadelphia roster, no less so after declining their option on Odubel Herrera, who led the team with 104 games in center last year. Herrera rebounded from his long layoff relatively well, posting 1.8 rWAR/1.1 fWAR in 492 plate appearances. He walks at a below-average rate (5.9%) and he puts the ball in play more often than most (15.9% strikeout rate), but that contact had little pop behind it in 2021 as Herrera managed just a .156 ISO. He didn’t embarrass himself out there, but he didn’t add much value for a Philly squad that needs bit of production it can get.

They need to turn centerfield into a better-than average spot, and there aren’t a plethora of options available. Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley would be penciled in as the starters in center and left, respectively, though the Phils probably want both coming off the bench in 2022. ’

That means scouring the market, where there aren’t lot of true centerfielders available. Starling Marte would be option A in free agency, had he not signed with the rival Mets, and Byron Buxton is the highest-ceiling potential trade target, had he not signed an extension with the Twins. They might check in with Oakland about their available position players, whether that be Ramon Laureano for center or Matt Chapman for third.

As for the bullpen, it already looks a little different than at the end of last season. Hector Neris signed a two-year deal with the Astros, while Corey Knebel has joined the Phillies on a one-year deal. Knebel will be a closing option for Girardi. Jose Alvarado from the left side should also get plenty of high leverage opportunities. They claimed southpaw Ryan Sherriff off waivers from the Rays as well. Sherriff has been seen spotty action for the Cardinals and Rays, but he’s never spent a full season on the Major League roster.

The Phillies have a lot of work to do. They signed Johan Camargo just before the lockout, and while Camargo adds valuable versatility, he hasn’t been productive at the plate since 2018. He can be a part of the bench, but he’s not a solution for the left side of the infield. Nor does he solve the problems in the outfield. Nor will he close games. At this stage, however, it’s important to remember that the addition of Camargo and Knebel represent the beginning of the Phillies’ offseason, not the end of it.

Phillies Sign Johan Camargo

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The Phillies are signing infielder Johan Camargo, reports MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (Twitter link). It’s a $1.4MM guarantee. Camargo was recently non-tendered by the Braves. The Phils have since announced the move, with right-hander Adonis Medina designated for assignment to clear 40-man roster space.

Camargo’s swift signing was no doubt fueled by Major League Baseball’s decision to institute a lockout, though there are pure player merits to consider here as well. While Camargo has yet to replicate his early career success with Atlanta, he remains a viable bench option capable of covering several positions. His dominant .326/.401/.557 output in 104 Triple-A games this year likely gave the Phillies front office hope as well.

The 24-year-old Medina draws the short end of the transaction stick after a cup of coffee in the Majors and a rough showing at Triple-A. In 67 innings at the minor’s highest level, the right-hander pitched to a 5.05 ERA, continuing the trend of a rising ERA with each promotion. Medina regularly posts above average groundball rates however, and is likely to pique the interest of a front office who values that skillset, assuming he doesn’t end up remaining with the only organization he’s known.

Phillies Sign Corey Knebel

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The Phillies announced the signing of reliever Corey Knebel to a one-year contract this afternoon. It’s reportedly a $10MM guarantee. Knebel is represented by Excel Sports Management.

The bullpen has been a major weak spot for the Phillies in each of the last two seasons, and Knebel now provides some much-needed late-game help for the club, potentially even in the closer role.  Knebel has previous experience as the Brewers’ closer (including a 39-save, All-Star season in 2017) before injuries derailed his career.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is very familiar with Knebel, as back when Dombrowski was running the Tigers front office, Detroit selected Knebel 39th overall in the 2013 draft.  Knebel began his MLB career in a Tigers uniform, but after a pair of trades from Detroit to Texas to Milwaukee, he emerged as a very intriguing arm out of the Brew Crew’s bullpen.

Knebel underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2019 and returned to toss only 13 1/3 innings of rather shaky 6.08 ERA ball, though such struggles aren’t uncommon for a pitcher returning from such a layoff.  The Brewers opted to trade Knebel to the Dodgers rather than face the question of whether or not to tender him a contract in his final arbitration-eligible year, and to some extent, Milwaukee’s concerns were realized, as Knebel ended up missing almost four months of the 2021 campaign due to a right lat strain.

When he did pitch, however, Knebel looked much closer to his old form.  He posted a 2.45 ERA over 25 2/3 innings, with a 29.7% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate and dominant numbers against both right-handed and left-handed batters.  Velocity-wise, Knebel’s heater was back up to 96.4mph —- still a tick below his 97.4mph career high in 2017, but a nice step up from the 94.4mph velo he showed in 2020.  Knebel’s fastball spin rate also rebounded from 2020, and he posted a career-best spin rate on his curveball that topped his already-strong past numbers.

The contract is a nice late birthday present for Knebel, who turned 30 years old last week.  While he has already had a lot of ups and downs in his career, that age is a reminder that Knebel is still in his veritable prime, and might resume his status as a frontline relief arm if he is able to stay healthy.  The one-year contract may be a nod to both his lengthy injury history, and perhaps Knebel’s own desire to showcase himself in advance of a larger multi-year commitment next winter.  MLBTR projected Knebel for a two-year, $18MM pact, and he sat 38th on our ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

Knebel is by far the biggest of the Phillies’ bullpen adds this winter, topping a list that includes Ryan Sherriff, Nick Nelson, Yoan Lopez, Kent Emanuel, and Scott Moss.  The relief corps also took a hit when former closer Hector Neris departed to sign a free agent deal with the Astros.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Phillies and Knebel were in agreement. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported the sides were “in advanced talks” this morning. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first with contract terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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