Phillies Extend Dave Dombrowski Through 2027
The Phillies have agreed to a three-year contract extension with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, reports Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (Twitter links). He was already signed through 2024, meaning Dombrowski will now run baseball operations in Philadelphia through the 2027 season. The team announced the extension shortly after Salisbury’s report.
Hired as the first person to ever hold the “president of baseball operations” title for the Phillies back in 2020, Dombrowski is now set to be entrenched atop the Phillies’ baseball operations hierarchy for another half decade.
It’s been a short but thus-far successful run for Dombrowski, even if a majority of the Phillies’ 2022 World Series roster — including Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura and Seranthony Dominguez — was inherited from the prior regime. Dombrowski was running the ship when the team agreed to re-sign catcher J.T. Realmuto to a five-year contract, and the first year of his four-year investment in Kyle Schwarber has paid considerable dividends. Trades made to acquire Jose Alvarado, David Robertson, Kyle Gibson, Garrett Stubbs, Noah Syndergaard and Edmundo Sosa have all worked out well thus far.
Beyond the players on the field, Dombrowski deserves credit for the leadership placed around them. The decision to fire veteran manager Joe Girardi, who was hired as skipper before Dombrowski joined the organization, and replace him with bench coach Rob Thomson was likely not one that was made lightly. Dombrowski also brought hitting coach Kevin Long into the fold in the 2021-22 offseason and has already extended him through the 2025 season.
As with any baseball operations leader, Dombrowski’s tenure in Philadelphia contains its share of both hits and misses. A two-year deal to re-sign Didi Gregorius proved regrettable, and the free-agent moves made to address the bullpen (Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, Corey Knebel) haven’t panned out as hoped.
Looking specifically at the past year, the Phils entered the 2021-22 offseason with glaring holes both at shortstop and in center field, and neither was addressed heading into the 2022 season. Rather than addressing those areas and looking to improve a team known as one of the worst defensive clubs in the league over the past ten years or so, the Dombrowski-led Phillies instead inked Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to long-term contracts, committing to playing one in the field full-time in the process. Now, with Harper set for elbow surgery and likely in need of increased DH time in 2023, both Castellanos and Schwarber will again be thrust into regular defensive work. Castellanos’ first year with the Phils was a disappointment, and he’ll be looking for a rebound effort in 2023.
At shortstop, Dombrowski bucked the “farm system destroyer” narrative and held onto top prospect Bryson Stott, giving him a chance at the everyday job even in spite of a stacked free-agent class of shortstops last winter. Stott didn’t hit much and looked better at second base than at shortstop, though, and the Phillies now seem poised to be players in what is again a deep collection of shortstops.
Still, the decision to hang onto Stott and top pitching prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s prior penchant for aggressive trades that thin out the top end of a farm system in the name of win-now moves. The only truly high-end prospect he’s traded away is catcher Logan O’Hoppe, who was facing a Realmuto-sized roadblock to playing time in Philadelphia. That swap brough Brandon Marsh to the Phils, and the early returns during the regular season were strong: Marsh slashed .288/.319/.455 with the Phillies, and the hope is that he can hold down the fort in center field on a long-term basis.
Setting aside the dissection of Dombrowski’s transactions in a still relatively limited tenure with the organization, it’s clear that owner John Middleton is comfortable working with Dombrowski and believes he and GM Sam Fuld are the right pairing to continue guiding the Phillies’ World Series aspirations. Dombrowski has won World Series titles with two different organizations and has now overseen World Series berths with a whopping four organizations. That type of success across multiple franchises is generally unparalleled, and Dombrowski now potentially has five more opportunities to secure his third World Series ring with his third different organization.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Philadelphia Phillies
In conjunction with the Phillies’ Offseason Outlook that went up earlier today, MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosted a Phillies-centric chat. Click here to read the transcript!
Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies
In conjunction with the Phillies installment of our annual Offseason Outlook series, I’ll be hosting a Phillies-centric chat here at MLBTR later today, at 1pm CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, to join live, or to read the transcript after it’s complete.
The Phillies nearly pulled a rabbit out of their hat, going from disappointing start and early-June managerial change to storybook finish and a surprise World Series run that ultimately came up just short. With an 11-year playoff drought now ended and a 2022 World Series berth in their back pockets, they’ll take aim at improving the club and finishing the job in 2023.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Bryce Harper, OF: $222MM through 2031
- Nick Castellanos, OF: $80MM through 2026
- J.T. Realmuto, C: $71.625MM through 2025
- Kyle Schwarber, OF: $60MM through 2025
- Zack Wheeler, RHP: $48MM through 2024
- Aaron Nola, RHP: $16MM through 2023
Total 2023 commitment: $130.375MM
Total long-term commitment: $497.625MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Jose Alvarado (5.082): $3.2MM
- Rhys Hoskins (5.053): $12.6MM
- Seranthony Dominguez (4.131): $2MM
- Ranger Suarez (3.112): $3.5MM
- Sam Coonrod (3.078): $800K (agreed to terms at $775K last week)
- Edmundo Sosa (2.140): $1MM
Option Decisions
- Exercised $16MM club option on RHP Aaron Nola
- Declined $17MM club option on 2B Jean Segura (paid $1MM buyout)
- RHP Zach Eflin declined $15MM mutual option (received $150K buyout)
Free Agents
- Jean Segura, Zach Eflin, David Robertson, Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Gibson, Corey Knebel, Brad Hand
Buoyed by a dominant postseason showing from Bryce Harper and — until the World Series — otherworldly starting pitching from co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Phillies came within arm’s reach of their first World Series title since 2009. It wasn’t meant to be, as they ran into a Houston buzzsaw that generally matched their starting pitching prowess and came through with more timely hits late in the series. Now, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld will be on the lookout for reinforcements to get the Phillies back to the Fall Classic in 2023.
The first order of business was largely a formality. When the Phils fired Joe Girardi in early June and elevated veteran bench coach Rob Thomson to the manager’s chair, many were happy for Thomson to finally get a chance at running a team. Few could’ve predicted the epic tear the Phillies would go on following the managerial shift, however. Reaching the postseason — let alone the World Series — seemed like a pipe dream. But that’s exactly how things played out, and Dombrowski, Fuld and owner John Middleton rewarded Thomson to the tune of a two-year contract extension as manager — sans “interim” label — with an option for a third season. Not long after, the Phils extended hitting coach Kevin Long and invited back the entire staff for the 2023 season.
With the field leadership in place, the Phillies will turn their focus to filling out a roster that — as one would expect for a World Series club — isn’t exactly rife with holes. That’s not to say they’ll stand pat — far from it, in all likelihood — but the Phils have a strong foundation in the lineup, rotation and bullpen moving forward.
Starting with the one-through-nine, the Phillies surely feel set in the outfield corners, at designated hitter and at least one middle infield spot. The trio of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos will hold down the outfield corners and designated hitter, though the manner in which that’ll play out next season is largely dependent on Harper. He’ll undergo elbow surgery this week to address the damaged ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, but the extent of the procedure won’t be known until surgeons begin the operation. Imaging hasn’t confirmed whether Harper will need a full ligament replacement (i.e. Tommy John surgery) or “merely” an internal brace procedure. Tommy John surgery would come with a lengthier recovery, but he’ll be back by midseason either way (perhaps earlier, in the event of an internal brace or primary repair operation). Regardless, don’t look for the Phillies to add any corner outfielders or DH-only players of note.
The same is true behind the plate, where J.T. Realmuto turned in a vintage season and can still lay claim to being one of the top catchers — if not the top catcher — in Major League Baseball. The current AAV record holder for catchers ($23.1MM) slashed .276/.342/.478 with 22 homers, 21 steals and premium defense at the sport’s most physically demanding position, taking home his third Silver Slugger and second Gold Glove in the process. He’s a star in every sense of the word and is a lock for primary catching duty again in 2023. Backup Garrett Stubbs was outstanding in 121 plate appearances (.264/.350/.462), so there’s no reason to expect Philadelphia to be in the mix for a backup, either.
In the infield, things get a bit murkier. That might be underselling matters, in fact; the infield mix is arguably quite wide open. Granted, Rhys Hoskins is coming off a .246/.332/.462 slash, 30 homers and a postseason with six home runs — several of which were delivered in clutch spots — but he’s also a year from free agency and generally regarded as a poor defender. With a projected $12.6MM salary for the 2023 season, Hoskins isn’t necessarily a “bargain” anymore, and it’s at least feasible that the Phillies would be open to some kind of swap to improve upon his suspect defense. That’s not to say Hoskins will be aggressively shopped, but the notion of him changing hands at some point isn’t entirely far-fetched. Twenty-seven-year-old Darick Hall is probably ticketed for more DH work early in the year while Harper mends than time at first base, but he’s one alternative if the Phils do get an offer to their liking on Hoskins.
Across the diamond, the Phils received only average offense from 26-year-old Alec Bohm, who also happened to turn in some of the worst defensive grades you’ll see at third base (-17 Defensive Runs Saved, -9 Outs Above Average). Trading Bohm, who’s controllable through 2026, would be selling low, but the Phils could conceivably be open to such a move after two straight years of lackluster offense and quite poor defensive ratings. One alternative would be to slide Bohm across the diamond to first base, hoping the bat will come around and that the glove will play at a less-demanding position, though doing so might necessitate moving on from Hoskins. There’d be DH playing time to go around early in the season, but once Harper is healthy, a roster with him, Schwarber, Castellanos, Hoskins and Bohm is tough to field without making substantial defensive concessions, as the Phils did in 2022.
The corner infield situation is further muddied by the fact that there’s no quality everyday option at third base on the free-agent market. Justin Turner still has more than enough bat, but his defensive grades have tanked and the Dodgers played him at DH more than third base in 2022. Evan Longoria is an option, but age 37, he’s not the star he once was. Jace Peterson quietly brings an OBP-driven, defensive-minded value to the hot corner, but his track record is limited despite his age (33). Brandon Drury had a breakout year between the Reds and Padres, but it’s an open question whether he can sustain it. The trade market will have a few options, but the best-case scenario for the Phils would simply be for Bohm to find a way to improve upon his glovework.
In the middle infield, the Phils are set to bid farewell to Segura after declining his option. Doing so would afford them the flexibility to play young Bryson Stott at either middle-infield slot, perhaps setting the stage for a run at one of the market’s four premier shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson. Such an expenditure might sound far-fetched on the surface, with Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos and Schwarber all already commanding salaries of $20MM annually. However, Nola is a free agent following the 2023 season and Wheeler returns to market following the 2024 campaign. That creates both some near-term flexibility and also increases the urgency to win now, when that dynamic one-two punch remains on the roster.
If the Phils don’t plan to pursue one of the “big four” shortstops, there are alternatives at either middle-infield slot. A reunion with Segura at a lesser annual rate certainly seems plausible. Over at shortstop, Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias are free agents, while Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is coming off a solid season and seems like a probable trade candidate. The Phils also have deadline pickup Edmundo Sosa if they prefer a defensive-minded approach to shortstop in 2023. The 26-year-old is a plus defender who hit well in St. Louis in 2021, struggled with the Cardinals in 2022, and found himself revitalized with the Phillies following the trade deadline. He’s a likelier bench option, but as far as fallbacks go, the team could do worse than a sure-handed infielder coming off a .254/.320/.381 slash dating back to 2021.
Center field has been the other glaring hole for the Phillies in recent years, but the organization swung a proactive move intended to shore up that spot for years to come back at the trade deadline. Sending top catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels, the Phillies acquired former top prospect Brandon Marsh, whom they can control through the 2027 season. Marsh, a 2016 second-round pick who was once viewed as a building block in Anaheim, has struggled with his consistency but shown flashes of immense potential.
The Phillies tweaked Marsh’s stance and swing mechanics (Twitter links via Talkin’ Halos), and the early results were night-and-day. After hitting .226/.284/.353 with the Angels in 2022, Marsh hit .288/.319/.455 as a Phillie and cut his strikeout rate from 36.2% to 29.7%. He hasn’t yet drawn premium defensive marks in center field, but Marsh was heralded as a potential plus defender as a prospect and certainly has the tools to be an everyday center fielder in Philadelphia. He’ll likely get that chance in 2023, due both to his solid finish in 2022 and to the steep price the Phils paid to acquire him.
As far as the pitching staff goes, the foundation is set. Nola is in his walk year, so the possibility of a contract extension to keep him in Philadelphia beyond the 2023 season could very well be broached in Spring Training. Whether he stays or goes, Nola will again join Wheeler in forming one of the game’s great rotation duos. Following them will be lefty Ranger Suarez, who’d cemented himself as a quality big league starter even before elevating his profile with a clutch postseason showing. Dombrowski has already said that the Phillies will likely entrust one rotation spot to a young arm such as Bailey Falter or perhaps even top prospect Andrew Painter.
With Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard all departing to the free-agent market, that leaves one spot to fill and more than a dozen names to potentially take that role. There’s a larger supply of veteran mid-rotation starters than usual in free agency this offseason, and while a couple names — Tyler Anderson and Martin Perez — are already off the board, Dombrowski will still have quite a list from which to choose. His ties to Justin Verlander from the pair’s Detroit days will no doubt prompt speculation about such a fit, and to the likely surprise of many, the Phillies could probably even offer the Max Scherzer-esque deal Verlander is said to be seeking and still come in just shy of the luxury tax.
Of course, any subsequent moves would put the Phils right back into tax territory, and to this point they haven’t been suggested as a likely player for Verlander. Certainly, the idea of them signing Verlander and a notable shortstop seems far-fetched. However, the point here isn’t so much to illustrate why Verlander singularly is a good fit, but rather to again highlight that even with so many weighty contracts already on the books, the Phillies have the financial capacity to play for pretty much any free agent they like. Alternate names on the rotation market include Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi (another former Dombrowski signee) and Andrew Heaney, to name a few. If the goal is to look for one-year solutions rather than multi-year names like those just listed, Corey Kluber becomes an intriguing option.
The bullpen, long seen as the Phillies’ Achilles heel — rhyme unintentional but now firmly staying in place — looks steadier than in years past. Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado were both terrific in 51 innings and could form a strong eighth inning/ninth inning tandem. Minor league signee Andrew Bellatti proved to be a steal, thanks largely to ramped up usage of his slider. Connor Brogdon, 27, improved considerably over his already-strong rookie season in 2021.
There are still holes to fill, of course, and it’s been a bull market for relievers early on. The Phillies will have the ability to jump into the mix for any of the remaining free-agent relievers, be it an established closer like Kenley Jansen or an upside play like Matt Strahm or Carlos Estevez. A reunion with David Robertson seems plausible as well. It seems likely they’ll add at least one reliever, be it via free agency or the trade market. Plugging in a pair of new relief arms, as the Phillies did last year with Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia, shouldn’t be ruled out.
Whether in the middle infield or in the rotation, there’s probably room for the Phillies to make one notable free-agent addition and a handful of supplementary moves and still avoid barreling too deeply into luxury-tax territory. Then again, given that they’re likely enjoying a revenue boon from their World Series run and could be facing the last year with Nola atop the rotation, perhaps the luxury tax will be of little consequence to owner John Middleton. For a team in this position, that’s very arguably the best way to operate, as the foundation of a team that pushed the Astros to six games in the World Series remains firmly in place — but perhaps only for one more season.
Dombrowski has never been one to shy away from major free-agent signings, and having just missed out on his third World Series title with a third different team, there’s good reason for another aggressive winter. The core of this year’s team will be back in 2023 — quite likely with some pricey new teammates.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22
The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.
For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.
One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…
Latest
- The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
- The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.
Earlier Deals
- The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
- The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
- The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
- The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
- The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
- The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
- The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
- The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
- The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
- The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
- The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
- The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
- The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
- The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.
Bryce Harper To Undergo Elbow Surgery Next Week
Phillies star Bryce Harper will undergo elbow surgery to repair his damaged ulnar collateral ligament next Wednesday, president of baseball operation Dave Dombrowski announced today (Twitter link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Imaging hasn’t conclusively determined whether Harper will require a full Tommy John surgery (i.e. ligament replacement) or whether an internal brace procedure could suffice, so the team won’t have a timeline until the surgery is performed.
Harper was diagnosed with a UCL tear back in May but was able to continue his 2022 season as the Phillies’ primary designated hitter. Position players who sustain UCL tears are often able to continue hitting, but throwing is obviously not an option with such an injury. Even in the event of a full Tommy John surgery, it should be noted that Harper could very likely return to the field as a DH for a notable portion of the 2023 season.
Shohei Ohtani, for instance, spent only the first five weeks or so of the 2019 season on the injured list before returning as a designated hitter. His surgery was performed in early October of 2018 — some seven weeks earlier in the offseason than Harper will go under the knife. Every player’s rehab is different, of course, but a summer return would seem plausible even in the worst-case scenario for Harper. If an internal brace procedure is sufficient, Harper could conceivably return in even shorter order.
Even with the damaged UCL, Harper remained a force in the middle of the Phillies’ lineup. Harper homered in three consecutive games following the diagnosis and batted .295/.381/.510 the rest of the way after learning of the tear. A broken thumb sustained when he was hit by a pitch sidelined him for a notable portion of the summer, but neither injury could prevent Harper from mashing when healthy enough to play. His postseason teetered on historic, as Harper slashed .349/.414/.746 with six home runs and seven doubles in just 71 plate appearances. His NLCS-winning home run against the Padres will forever be etched in Phillies lore.
Harper is still only four years into the 13-year, $330MM contract he signed as a free agent prior to the 2019 season, but to this point it’s hard to call the contract anything other than a roaring success. Since putting pen to paper and making Philadelphia his long-term home, Harper has batted a combined .282/.384/.546 (not including this year’s postseason exploits), won an NL MVP Award and helped bring the Phillies back to the postseason for the first time since 2011. He’s still owed $222MM over the remaining nine years of the deal, though with the typical AAV for premium players now well north of $30MM, that $24.667MM AAV looks like a bargain for Harper.
Phillies Select Johan Rojas
The Philliles announced that they have selected outfielder Johan Rojas to their 40-man roster. Today is the deadline for teams to add players to their rosters in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Rojas, 22, was an international free agent signing of the club in 2018. Since then, he has been considered one of the club’s top prospects, largely based on his speed and defense. Here in 2022, he split his time between High-A and Double-A, stealing 62 bases in 130 games while playing all three outfield spots but mostly in center field.
His bat isn’t quite as exciting as the rest of his game, however. His combined batting line on the year was .244/.309/.354 for a wRC+ of 83. With the baserunning and the glovework, he should have a nice floor, though a step forward at the plate could turn him into an exciting and well-rounded player.
Even without a strong bat, he could be a nice fit on a Phillies’ team that already has plenty of thump from the outfield grass. With Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos all signed for years to come, adding in a speed-and-defense option could be a nice complement. Brandon Marsh will be that guy for now, as Rojas looks to tackle the upper levels of the minors.
Phillies Interested In Xander Bogaerts
According to reports back in September, the Phillies were planning to pursue Xander Bogaerts once the free agent market opened, and that plan apparently remains intact two months later. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Philadelphia is “believed to have real interest in” making Bogaerts the latest big-ticket addition to the roster.
Since Bogaerts received a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject from the Red Sox, the Phillies will have an extra price to pay in compensation for a signing, since Philadelphia exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2022. To sign Bogaerts or any other QO-rejecting free agent, the Phils would have to give up $1MM of their international bonus pool, and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft.
Fellow star shortstops Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner are also attached to draft compensation, so theoretically, the Phillies might prefer Carlos Correa if they’re going to shop from the top shelf of the shortstop market. Since Correa rejected a qualifying offer last winter, he is ineligible to receive another QO, and thus could be signed without any compensation. Of course, this also gives Correa extra appeal to other teams, which doesn’t necessarily help the Phillies in a bidding war.
It is expected that the Phils will at least check in on all of these shortstops, but Bogaerts also has a personal connection with Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who was Boston’s PBO from 2015-19. That stint saw the Red Sox win a World Series in 2018, and Bogaerts sign the six-year, $120MM extension that he has now opted out of, in order to test the market this winter.
Since the Phillies declined their $17MM club option Jean Segura for 2023, the Phils suddenly have a hole in their infield that could be pretty cleanly filled by signing Bogaerts. Bryson Stott would move over to second base, and Bogaerts could step right in as Philadelphia’s new everyday shortstop. Edmundo Sosa‘s emergence after joining the Phillies in a midseason trade also puts him into the mix, though Sosa could be moved around the diamond — splitting time with Stott at second base, getting the occasional appearance in left field, or spelling Alec Bohm at third base.
Between Segura’s declined club option and Zach Eflin declining his end of a mutual option, the Phillies have roughly $179.3MM in payroll on the books for 2023, and a luxury tax number of just under $190.8MM. Assuming Bogaerts signed a contract in the range of MLBTR’s projection of a $27MM average annual value, that would still leave Dombrowski with some room under the $233MM tax line to make any further roster adds. Of course, this assumes that the Phillies are overly concerned with resetting their tax bill. After winning the NL pennant in 2022, ownership might not mind a second straight year of overages if it means adding a player like Bogaerts who could put the Phils over the top for a World Series title.
Phillies Extend Hitting Coach Kevin Long
The Phillies have signed hitting coach Kevin Long to a contract extension that runs through the 2025 season, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link). Long just completed his first season in Philadelphia, joining the team last winter after a four-year stint as the Nationals’ hitting coach.
Most coaches operate on year-to-year contracts, yet the extra amount of security for Long reflects both the high regard for his work around the league, and the Phillies’ interest in keeping other teams from poaching the 55-year-old for other jobs. Long has been mentioned as a possible managerial candidate, and looking at his past jobs, the Nationals needed a three-year commitment to first sign him away from the Mets following the 2017 season.
Long has been a lead hitting coach in each of the last 16 seasons, working with the Yankees from 2007-14, the Mets from 2015-17, Washington from 2018-2021, and last year in Philadelphia. That tenure has resulted in two World Series rings (with the Yankees in 2009 and Nationals in 2019), as well as two other pennant-winning clubs.
After falling two games shy of the World Series, it isn’t surprising that the Phillies want to keep Long in the fold. Philadelphia hitters finished in or near the top 10 in most team-wide offensive categories, and Phillies hitters combined for a 106 wRC+ (tenth-best of any team in baseball). While the Phils already had plenty of established veteran bats in the lineup, they also received strong work from youngsters Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh, which could be chalked up to Long’s tutelage. Manager Rob Thomson and Long have a lengthy working relationship, dating back to their shared days on the Yankees’ coaching staff.
Phillies Claim Luis Ortiz, Andrew Vasquez From Giants
The Phillies announced that they have claimed two relievers off waivers from the Giants. Right-hander Luis Ortiz and left-hander Andrew Vasquez will jump to Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Phillies also outrighted five players: right-handers Mark Appel and Hans Crouse, lefties Kent Emanuel and Damon Jones, along with infielder Yairo Munoz.
Ortiz, 27, spent a few years with the Orioles but signed a minor league deal with the Giants for 2022. A highly-touted prospect from his time with the O’s, he’s dealt with some injuries and been pushed from starting to relieving as time has gone on. He spent most of 2022 in Triple-A, throwing 67 1/3 innings with a 4.54 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His peripherals were quite strong, as he struck out 25.4% of batters faced, walking just 4.6% of them and getting grounders on 42.4% of balls in play. He also got 8 2/3 innings of MLB action, with a 1.04 ERA in that small sample. He still has options remaining, meaning the Phillies will have the ability to keep him in the minors as a depth arm.
Vasquez set a career high with 10 MLB games this year, splitting that time between the Blue Jays and Giants. He allowed six runs in 8 2/3 innings but he posted a 2.23 ERA over 32 1/3 Triple-A innings. The southpaw struck out almost 35% of opponents at the minors’ highest level, making him of appeal to a number of teams on the waiver wire.
Appel made his big league debut almost a decade after being selected first overall in the 2013 draft. He worked 10 1/3 innings over six relief appearances but ended the year on the injured list with elbow inflammation. Crouse was a former highly-regarded pitching prospect who came over from the Rangers in the Kyle Gibson/Spencer Howard trade. He debuted with two appearances last year but only pitched five times in Triple-A in 2022.
Jones is a former 18th-rounder who has five appearances in the last two years. Emanuel joined the organization off waivers from the Astros last winter but never pitched with Philadelphia. Munoz played in 29 games this year, hitting .221/.250/.404.
Munoz, Emanuel and Appel can become minor league free agents. Crouse and Jones will remain in the system without occupying a 40-man roster spot.
Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura
As expected, the Phillies have declined their $17MM option on second baseman Jean Segura in favor of a $1MM buyout. Philadelphia also confirmed previous reports they’ve exercised their $16MM option on Aaron Nola and that Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option.
The move could bring an end to Segura’s four-year tenure in Philadelphia. First acquired from the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason in the deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded Carlos Santana’s contract to Seattle, Segura has spent the past four years playing in the middle infield more or less every day. After one season at shortstop, he’s spent the last three years as the club’s primary second baseman. Segura has been a solid player on both sides of the ball, pairing adequate offense with slightly above-average defensive marks at the keystone.
The two-time All-Star doesn’t have huge power upside, but he consistently puts the ball in play. He’s never had a strikeout rate above the league average in his career, and this past season’s 15% mark is about seven points below the league figure. Paired with above-average speed and an all-fields approach that makes him tough to position against, Segura hit between .266 and .290 in all four seasons of his Phillies tenure. He doesn’t draw many walks, but the solid batting averages have propped up his on-base marks to a reasonable range.
Altogether, Segura put up a .281/.337/.418 mark in just shy of 1800 plate appearances with the Phils. He had a fairly similar .277/.336/.387 line this past season. A fractured finger suffered when he was struck by a pitch while trying to bunt kept him to just 98 games and 387 plate appearances, but he’s otherwise topped 125 games in every full season since becoming a regular with the Brewers in 2013.
There’s no question Segura’s a valuable player, but the hefty option price and modest buyout figure made that a net $16MM call for the Phils. That always looked to be beyond their comfort level, particularly since the club no longer seemed to consider him an option at shortstop. Now that he’s on the open market, however, Segura profiles as arguably the top second baseman available in a generally weak free agent class at the position. He’s not likely to find a $16MM salary for the 2023 campaign, but he could approach or top that overall guarantee over multiple years.
The Phillies could certainly circle back to look to reunite with Segura at some point. Philadelphia is likely to deploy Bryson Stott at one middle infield position after the former top prospect bounced back from an atrocious start to post a solid .276/.331/.404 mark in the second half. Stott could play either middle infield position, and the Phils figure to be mentioned as a prominent suitor for the star-studded free agent shortstop class that features Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Matt Gelb of the Athletic indeed suggested this morning the Phillies are likely to explore the shortstop market, so it’s understandable they wouldn’t want to commit a lofty salary to cement Segura in the middle infield at the start of the offseason.