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Tigers Trade For Sean Casey

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Latest from Ken Rosenthal: the Tigers have found their left-handed bat in Sean Casey.  Detroit gave up a minor league pitcher in the deal.

Casey makes $8.5MM this year, but the Reds are paying one million of that.  That leaves approximately $2.6 mil for the Tigers to cover.

Casey should get most of the time at first base, as the Tigers demoted Chris Shelton to make room for him.

In return the Pirates received right-hander Brian Rogers, not among Detroit’s top 30 prospects entering the season.  The 24 year-old has worked in relief at Double A this year, posting a 2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9.  Rogers, a product of Georgia Southern University, was an 11th round pick in 2003.  He switched to relief last year and has put up good numbers since.

Pirates Trade Rumors

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Let’s run down all the possible trades Dave Littlefield and the Pirates have brewing.

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review still has Oakland as the favorite for Sean Casey, a move that makes little sense to me.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette mentions a possible swap of John Grabow for Ryan Shealy.  That sounds reasonable.

Dejan Kovacevic’s article also indicates that the Mets and Yankees are leading the charge for Kip Wells.  The Yankees also want Craig Wilson and Roberto Hernandez.  Wilson and Wells seem unlikely at this point, though, as the Abreu deal looks close.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 7 Days Left

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Here’s the latest from around baseball…

Dejan Kovacevic mentions that the A’s are considering Sean Casey.  Casey’s doing his usual good batting average/low slugging thing and he’s getting $8.5MM for it.  The combined efforts of Dan Johnson and Nick Swisher have been inadequate at first, but would Casey really help?  Johnson is hitting .485/.575/.848 in 33 Triple A at-bats; maybe he deserves another look.  The Athletics, who are dead last in the AL in slugging, wouldn’t be helped by adding the powerless Casey.  They need Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell, or even Raul Ibanez to make a difference. 

The Yankees have decided to hold on to Philip Hughes, and the Phils aren’t biting on whatever else they offered.  According to George King, the Yanks think assuming Abreu’s contract and exercising his option should be enough.  Still, it would be cool to see a nasty young Phillies rotation in 2008 with Hughes, Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, and Scott Mathieson.

Also, I’m hearing that WPEN in Philadelphia has mentioned a trade rumor: Tom Gordon for Trot Nixon.  Nixon is a good hitter (.400 OBP), though he’s 32 with declining power numbers.  Given that Flash would be hands down the best reliever on the market, I’d expect the Phils to get more.   

Kenny Williams didn’t deny the recent Soriano rumor, so now you know it’s legit.  Kenny has been pretty shrewd with the media, so this is probably all part of his plan.  Despite word of a possible contract extension with Washington, Buster Olney all but assured us of a Soriano trade in today’s blog.

Also, Olney nixed the A-Rod to the Cubs idea, explaining that Rodriguez is a bargain in the Yankees’ world.  This column is kind of weird to me.  Phil Rogers almost seems like he’s just cooked up a brilliant scenario or something, with Aramis Ramirez and Jacque Jones being swapped for A-Rod.  Thing is, Bleed Cubbie Blue broke out this exact trade rumor three weeks ago.

RotoAuthority has a look at which pitchers have been abused this season.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 8 Days Left

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To begin with, this just isn’t true.  With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud.  That honor belongs to 2005 for sure.  The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.

Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest.  The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers.  In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb.  Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.

Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base.  Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.

Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more. 

Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens.  The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.

Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez?  Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto?  How about the Rockies?

Rumor Roundup

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Another day, another rumor roundup.  Let’s throw everything fresh into the mill.

The Orioles are thinking about taking on one of Philly’s huge outfielder contracts, for some reason.  I guess this could help next year’s push for third place.  Baltimore is one of baseball’s most baffling teams to me.  Abreu rumors have been floating around the Orioles since at least November.

The Cubs and Yankees may have something cooking, with Scott Williamson the likely candidate to be dealt.  If the reliever market is really so inflated, why don’t the Cubs trade Howry and Eyre?

The Pirates are offering up all sorts of non-difference makers, but Mike Gonzalez could actually get them something decent.  The 28 year-old southpaw has a 2.27 ERA in 39 innings this season.  Fantay leaguers should start thinking about Matt Capps as his successor.

Trade rumor All-Star Ken Rosenthal is getting into the game more lately, with a full plate of whisperings posted an hour ago.  Jose Vidro could become a Giant, and the D’Backs would love to trade Shawn Green (of course).

Unfounded rumors: Billy Beane may be shopping Mark Ellis and Jason Windsor, with possible interest in Brian Roberts…the Angels could be after David Dellucci…teams are calling the Mets about Alay Soler…Dallas McPherson is definitely on the block…there’s a decent chance Jon Lieber ends up a Yankee…the Mets and Nats are still talking about Livan Hernandez.

Mets To Trade Jeff Keppinger

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Astute Mets fans may have noticed that second baseman Jeff Keppinger of the team’s Triple A club is not in tonight’s lineup.  He also didn’t play in Sunday’s game.  From the folks I have spoken to close to the Norfolk Tides, Keppinger is not known to have an injury.

A source tells me that Norfolk Tides manager Ken Oberkfell has informed Keppinger that he is part of a deal with the Pirates.  Keppinger, a 26 year-old, hit .337 for Norfolk last year.  He’s known for his superb bat control, regularly making contact more than 90% of the time.  Baseball America considers him a future utility man with a possibility of more.  Keppinger previously played in the Pittsburgh organization, and was sent to the Mets in the Kris Benson deal.

A separate source of mine indicates that something is indeed going on with Keppinger.  While Keppinger for Roberto Hernandez is feasible, he says the deal may be expanded to include Oliver Perez, among others.

UPDATE: Looks like I was off on this one; a minor deal with the Royals appears to be in the works. KC would send Ruben Gotay to the Mets.

Yanks Set Sights On Roberto Hernandez

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Though relievers are always a hot deadline commodity, this year seems different.  To hear Buster Olney tell it:

"The value of middle relievers (or set-up men, or whatever you want to call them) is increasing, like oil stock."

That’s no excuse for what Wayne Krivsky did, but bashing him isn’t productive.  What is productive is cranking out the trade rumors like there’s no tomorrow.

According to Gotham Baseball, Roberto Hernandez is "the guy the Yankees would like to get."  The 41 year-old righty signed a $2.75MM contract with the Bucs this winter.  He has somehow managed a 3.10 ERA this season despite allowing more than 1.6 baserunners per inning.  Last season with the Mets was Hernandez’s one decent season since 2000.

If Dave Littlefield can spin Hernandez into anything useful, we may see more of this trend.  Non-contenders will snap up free agents like Aaron Fultz, Kent Mercker, Darren Oliver, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brian Meadows for a few million bucks and then peddle them come July.  Maybe the Cubs should consider trading Bob Howry and Scott Eyre?  If there’s another Austin Kearns to be had it’d be foolish not to.

The Gotham report also contains a rundown of various starters on the block and their chances at being dealt.

Oliver Perez Available?

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Here’s a new one for ya, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll yesterday:

"One rumor from the last few days is that Oliver Perez and Ryan Doumit are being dangled to the Phillies."

Would this deal make a good fit?  It seems a foregone conclusion that Mike Lieberthal is spending his last year as a Phillie, so the team does need to begin thinking long-term about its backstop.  Doumit would be a decent option.  Ronny Paulino has impressed the Pirates so far, and just a few weeks ago Jim Tracy indicated that Humberto Cota would start more often than Doumit for defensive purposes.

While I don’t doubt Doumit’s availability, the Phils would be well served to give Carlos Ruiz a crack at the job in 2007.  Granted he’s not a super prospect at age 27, but an impressive 2005 at Triple A coupled with his current .386/.448/.663 line warrants a look.

Obviously, the Phillies need pitching.  Their 4.99 team ERA is better than only the Giants.  Their starters have been pretty much toasted outside of Brett Myers (though he has allowed more than 1.5 baserunners per inning so far).  The hit rates on these guys are out of this world.  If you subscribe to the idea that hit rate is largely influenced by defense and luck, you may expect these guys to turn it around.

I do know that Jon Lieber is better than his 6.87 ERA by a long shot.  But Ryan Madson has failed in every aspect of pitching so far: hit, home run, and walk prevention, strikeout rate, you name it.  I did not see that coming at all, especially after his sparkling spring.  With Madson and Gavin Floyd getting smacked around consistently, the Phillies desperately need a reliable veteran to step in if they are to close the five game gap with the Mets.  They also need to support their pitchers with better defense – they’re second from the bottom in defensive efficiency this year.

I don’t think Oliver Perez is the answer.  Dejan Kovacevic’s April 3rd piece shows how the Pirates are playing it cool, but internally they have to be concerned about his lack of velocity.  As the article says, heat was a main ingredient of Perez’s 2004 breakout.  The Bucs can afford to sit around for at least a few more months to see if it comes back, but a contender like Philadelphia cannot. 

The Phils are stacked with young pitchers like Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, and Scott Mathieson, so I can’t see where an Oliver Perez project fits in.  A Hamels callup, possibly this month, may be the shot in the arm the team needs.  On the other hand, Perez is a Scott Boras client, and it’s not like Littlefield hasn’t given away star players in the past…    

Red Sox After Craig Wilson?

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Sometimes all it takes is an educated guess to put two and two together.  Hell, maybe Theo and Dave got the idea from this site yesterday – sort of a GM matchmaker (alright, that’s wishful thinking).  But it’s always interesting when speculation turns to real trade talks.

Yesterday I mentioned:

"If the Pirates want Arroyo back, Craig Wilson would be a decent fit given that Youkilis can play third…the Pirates have two vacancies in their rotation but a host of candidates to fill them."

Then today in Rob Rossi’s article for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, he revealed that the Pirates are trying to trade Wilson for a starter, possibly Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo.  For the Bucs, I like the idea.  Sure, their offense could use a guy like Wilson, but if they must discard him they should at least solidify the rotation. 

A Pittsburgh rotation of Clement/Duke/Perez/Maholm/Snell has a chance to be quite impressive.  It might be five guys with ERAs hovering around 4, but that’s actually hard to find when the average NL starter has a 4.22 ERA.

The Red Sox seem to be anticipating an injury for Trot Nixon or a failure by Mike Lowell, and expecting at least one of the two is the safe play.  The club needs a player like Wilson, who can handle both right field and first base and has an .851 career OPS.

Assuming the White Sox plan to hold on to Jose Contreras, I think they might have it right.  That is, there’s nothing wrong with an overload of starting pitchers.  The White Sox shouldn’t expect their front five to be completely healthy and effective once again.  Similarly, the Red Sox don’t necessarily have a surplus with Arroyo/Beckett/Clement/Papelbon/Schilling/Wakefield/Wells all capable of starting.  Yes, that’s seven pitchers, but three of them are injury risks and Papelbon is unproven.

The Biggest Games. The Best Tickets. StubHub.com

In Defense Of The Jack Wilson Signing

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Yesterday I noticed that the contract extension given by the Pirates to Jack Wilson was universally panned throughout the Internet.  Maybe someone somewhere liked the deal, but I haven’t seen it in print yet.

While I won’t go as far as to say I liked this extension, I will say that I don’t mind it.  Faint praise, yeah, but let’s not tear the Bucs a new one over this just yet.

I have to admit that the Pirates didn’t do a good job exploiting Wilson’s lousy year with the bat.  He hit .257/.299/.363 in his age 27 season last year, right at career levels.  You’d think they could’ve gotten him for 3/15 because of this.  It’s not as if he was coming off his 2004 Silver Slugger season.  But his agent snagged three years and $20.2MM with an $8.4MM option for 2010 and most folks chalked this one up as a typical Pirate mistake.

Let’s turn to my favorite new toy, Baseball Prospectus’s Marginal Value Over Replacement Player.  That metric says he’ll be worth $15,650,000 over the next three seasons.  BP has him as on average a 3.6 win player over the next three seasons.  Wilson was worth 6.9 wins in 2004 and 4.6 last year, so he can easily beat that projection.  He only needs to beat their projection by four and a half million bucks worth of value spread out over the next three seasons. 

Topping 2005 offensively shouldn’t be too tough for Wilson.  He added 20 pounds this offseason, typically a good thing for hitters. I will admit, this could have an effect on his range in the field.  Keep in mind that Wilson’s ’05 season was definitely affected by a December 2004 emergency appendectomy.  He lost fifteen pounds during that surgery.

There are a million defensive stats out there; just take my word for it that Wilson is a defensive whiz.  His glove probably comprises 90% of his value, so any offensive value is gravy.  It’s not like there’s anything in the Pirates’ farm system that could possibly replace Wilson, even in year three of the deal.  And it’s not like the market is bursting with 4.6 win shortstops; only eleven shortstops were better in 2005.

You want to pan a long-term contract?  Start with Paul Konerko, Kevin Millwood, A.J. Burnett, and Johnny Damon.  There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell their teams break even on those deals.  Of course, breaking even overall matters a lot more to the Pirates than it does to the Yankees.

The Biggest Games. The Best Tickets. StubHub.com

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