Heyman On Fielder, Pujols, Adrian
Some tidbits from Jon Heyman on the early edition of MLB Tonight on the MLB Network,..
- Heyman doesn't envision the Brewers getting a deal done with Prince Fielder. While he was complimentary towards club owner Mark Attanasio, he doesn't see Milwaukee ponying up the $25MM a year that it will likely take to hang on to him. This means that they'll have to trade him at the end of next year or let walk as a free agent.
- Meanwhile, he believes that Albert Pujols is now in line to receive a contract worth $30MM per season, perhaps up to eight years. The two sides tabled negotiations in March but will resume after the season.
- Even though the Padres are currently in first place in the NL West, Heyman believes that the club will deal Adrian Gonzalez. Heyman says it's unlikely that San Diego will allow their payroll to balloon in great excess of $50MM and therefore a re-up of Gonzalez won't fit in the budget.
Heyman On Howard, Pujols, Adrian, Werth
The latest hot stove thoughts from SI's Jon Heyman…
- The people Heyman talked to feel that with Ryan Howard averaging $25MM a year starting in 2012, a contract discussion for Albert Pujols has to start at $30MM a year.
- Heyman says that "the belief among skeptics of the deal that [the Howard extension] was an obvious overpay isn't reflected one bit among baseball people." Of course, there are hundreds of baseball people, and the ones I've spoken to agree with the skeptics.
- Adrian Gonzalez's agent John Boggs said, "We're just kind of innocent bystanders," noting that the Padres have not made contact about an extension.
- Jayson Werth's agent Jeff Borris believes his client will be "the premier free agent outfielder" if he doesn't sign an extension. Looking at the list, only Carl Crawford would have an argument. Heyman says there's a "belief around baseball" that Werth will be seeking $100MM. Previously we've heard suggestions of the four-year, $66MM Jason Bay range.
- Heyman says Stephen Strasburg has a contract clause that "permits 100 innings at the major-league level this year." I haven't heard of any clauses of that nature before, but Strasburg and Scott Boras is a powerful pairing.
What Does The Howard Extension Mean For Other Players?
The early verdict on Ryan Howard's five-year, $125MM contract extension isn't pretty from the point of view of several pundits, but the deal has to be great news for other slugging first basemen who may soon be hitting the free agent market. Here are some opinions on how Howard's contract will impact other major players…
- Fanhouse's Tom Krasovic spoke to John Boggs, who represents Adrian Gonzalez. Boggs feels that "[Howard's deal] bodes well for Adrian Gonzalez, because it validates the fact that he's worth that kind of money or more." Boggs noted that there have been no talks of an extension with the Padres, who have a $5.5MM club option on Gonzalez for the 2011 season that they're sure to exercise. Given Gonzalez's youth (he will be 29 when he hits free agency), great away splits (his lifetime line of .264/.365/.443 at PETCO Park is well below his .282/.364/.510 career line) and steadily improving glove (he has posted positive UZR/150 numbers over the last two years), he looks to be a strong bet to get a contract larger than Howard's from a team other than San Diego.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks at Howard's place in largest-contract history, and notes that Albert Pujols "figures to zoom by" the Phillies' slugger. Indeed, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to a five-year, $125MM extension, they would be doing jumping jacks in St. Louis right now. The Cardinals have a no-brainer $16MM option on Pujols for 2011, and no matter if Pujols re-signs in St. Louis or goes elsewhere, he'll be looking at a contract with an average annual value of over $30MM. Braves manager Bobby Cox told Goold Pujols is worth $50MM a year in light of Howard's deal.
- Prince Fielder is eliglble for arbitration this winter and can also be a free agent after the 2011 season. We've already heard whispers about the size of the deal that Fielder is looking for, and he will be just 27 when he hits the free agent market. Fielder, however, has to deal with question marks about his long-term fitness and his fielding ability (a -6.2 career UZR/150), but agent Scott Boras will no doubt have his best counter-argument prepared to rebut those concerns. With Boras at the negotiating table, it's very unlikely the Brewers will get a hometown discount.
- Pablo Sandoval is under San Francisco's control through 2014, but Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News points out that Howard's extension is a "great lesson" to Sandoval that getting in better shape can lead to bigger money in the future.
Largest Contracts By Service Time
When Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo signed his five year, $30.1MM extension earlier today, it marked the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with less than three years of service time.
Let's look at the richest contracts by service time, in terms of guaranteed money…
Less Than One Year
Position Player: Ryan Braun. Eight years, $45MM
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Four years, $9.5MM.
One To Two Years
Position Player: Chris Young. Five years, $28MM.
Pitcher: Fausto Carmona. Four years, $15MM.
Two To Three Years
Position Player: Hanley Ramirez. Six years, $70MM.
Pitcher: Yovani Gallardo. Five years, $30.1MM.
Three To Four Years
Position Player: Albert Pujols. Seven years, $100MM.
Pitcher: Scott Kazmir. Three years, $28.5MM.
Four To Five Years
Position Player: Miguel Cabrera. Eight years, $152.3MM.
Pitcher: Justin Verlander. Five years, $80MM.
Five To Six Years
Position Player: Derek Jeter. Ten years, $189MM.
Pitcher: Jake Peavy. Three years, $52MM.
Six-plus Years
Position Player: Alex Rodriguez. Ten years, $275MM.
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Seven years, $171MM.
Some thoughts…
- The most regrettable deals were signed very early in the player's career, Young and Carmona. Might be a lesson in using up those pre-arbitration years before taking the plunge.
- The largest contract signed by a position player with less than one year of service time after Braun's deal is Evan Longoria's, which will pay him just $17.5MM over six years. Is Braun overpaid, or is Longoria underpaid? I think the answer is clear.
- Sabathia's four year, $9.5MM deal nearly tripled Roy Halladay's three year, $3.7MM deal with Toronto, which was the previous record for a pitcher with less an a year of service time.
- One only of the above contracts has expired.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Stark On Free Agent Starters, Harper, Calero
ESPN's Jayson Stark leads his latest column by explaining why realignment doesn't make sense, and how it'd be shortsighted to make changes based on the Yankees and Red Sox. On to his hot stove rumblings…
- One GM's rankings of the five 2011 free agent starters likely to sign multiyear deals: Cliff Lee, Javier Vazquez, Jorge de la Rosa, Aaron Harang, and Ted Lilly. Health risks and one-year deal types were considered separately. De La Rosa, who recently turned 29, will be an interesting contract year pitcher to follow. He makes his season debut Friday afternoon against the Padres.
- One exec explained that Bryce Harper is not in the same class as guys like Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. were when they were drafted.
- Why did Kiko Calero find little interest on the free agent market after a strong 2009? Said one exec: "The medicals are so bad that everybody's wary."
- An official of a big market club feels that Albert Pujols will ask for Alex Rodriguez money, rather than Joe Mauer/Mark Teixeira dollars. That exec feels it's obvious the Cardinals will find a way to sign Pujols, even at that price.
Pujols Extension Talks Tabled Until Winter
Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting (via Twitter) that discussions between Albert Pujols and the Cardinals about a contract extension have "evaporated" for the time being. Further negotiation will have to wait until after the 2010 season.
Nothing weighs heavier on the minds of Cards fans than the idea that the team might not be able to lock up their franchise player beyond his current deal, but this latest news shouldn't be too much of a cause for concern. Pujols has already stated that he didn't want negotiations to reach into the season, lest they become a distraction. The slugger is under team control through 2011 (the Cardinals will obviously pick up Pujols' $16MM option for 2011) so there is still plenty of time for the two sides to reach an agreement.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Jays, Bell, Davis, Dunn
On this date in 2002, the Yankees Entertainment and Sports Network launched. Although the regional network barely broke even that year, YES has gone on to generate millions in revenue, much of which goes right into the Yankees' pockets. As recently as 2008, there was talk that the network was worth more than the team itself.
After you wrap your head around that, here are some links to check out from around the baseball blogosphere…
- The Baseball Opinion says that the Adeiny Hechevarria signing caps off an impressive offseason for new GM Alex Anthopoulos.
- The Friarhood examines the trade market for Padres' closer Heath Bell.
- Phillies Nation has some fun with internal discussions after the Albert Pujols–Ryan Howard rumors.
- DRays Bay wonders if Andy Sonnanstine will start the season in Tampa's rotation so they can send Wade Davis to the minors and push his service time clock back.
- Around The Majors wonders if the Nationals should really be trying to sign Adam Dunn to a contract extension.
- The Dodgerhater says that Sergio Romo and Dan Runzler are the key to San Francisco's bullpen this year.
- Bronx Bombers Beat wonders if Robinson Cano can take that next step towards being a middle of the order hitter for a team with some aging core hitters.
- SPANdemonium looks at some players drafted in the second round of the 2008 draft who have already had an impact in the big leagues.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Odds & Ends: Lo Duca, Pujols, Strasburg, Guzman
Links for Thursday…
- The Mariners watched free agent catcher Paul Lo Duca this spring, reports Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.
- Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch weighed in on the Cardinals' Albert Pujols extension situation in his chat yesterday. Strauss gives a 75% chance Pujols remains a Cardinal for life.
- Using Tim Lincecum for comparison, Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post estimates delaying Stephen Strasburg's Nationals debut until late May could save the team $18MM.
- Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told MASN's Ben Goessling that while he considers all trade possibilities, he's "certainly, certainly not" trying to trade Cristian Guzman.
The 2012 Free Agent Class
Jeff Euston of Cot's Baseball Contracts recently posted an unofficial list of players who will become free agents after the 2011 season. That free agent class will be highlighted by a trio of first basemen: Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, and Ryan Howard, though there's a chance Albert Pujols will join them if he and the Cardinals can't work out an extension.
Some other notable players scheduled to become free agents after 2011 include Jason Bartlett, Carlos Beltran, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Heath Bell, and Jonathan Papelbon. Robinson Cano, Yadier Molina, Grady Sizemore, and Matt Cain may also become free agents if their club options for 2012 are declined.
Obviously a lot will change between now and then, but it's never too early to look ahead!
Olney On Howard, Pujols, Adrian, Chris Young
The latest from ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider required)…
- Olney explains why the Phillies' internal discussions about offering Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols were accurate and newsworthy: "When you have confirmed information that the Phillies have discussed internally an avenue through which how they might pursue the best player in baseball — and you know exactly who said what to whom, and how sturdy the intent was — that is news." Olney's information should be trusted despite the Phillies' denials, but keep in mind that this was simply one club's internal discussion.
- Certain talent evaluators believe Adrian Gonzalez is so valuable given his contract that the Padres may not find a comparable return. Some of Olney's sources believe the Padres should keep Gonzalez into 2011.
- Olney's hearing Chris Young's velocity is back in its customary 87-88 mph range. As the best-paid Padre and an impending free agent, Young has to be considered a midseason trade candidate. He is earning $6.25MM this year with an $8.5MM club option for '11.