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Who Else Could The Royals Trade?

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It’s been a quiet offseason for the Royals on the whole, but they’ve taken up a prominent position on the trade market in the past few days, shipping center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the division-rival Twins in exchange for relief prospects Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, and flipping infielder Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox in exchange for reliever Josh Taylor the following day.

Those might not be the only trades in store for general manager J.J. Picollo in his first offseason atop the team’s baseball operations hierarchy. The Royals have reportedly discussed infielder Nicky Lopez with the White Sox in what would be a second intra-division swap. More broadly, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that Kansas City still had “a couple more deals” that they’re in the process of “lining up.” With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at some of the names the Royals could potentially ship out in the days and weeks leading up to spring training.

First and foremost, it should be pointed out that both Taylor and Mondesi were a year away from reaching the open market. They represented short-term assets for a Royals team that knows itself to be, at best, a long shot to contend in 2023. Lopez is more of of a mid-range player in terms of remaining club control, as he’s arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season. Presumably, the Royals won’t want to surrender much more team control than that. Players like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are all controllable through at least the 2028 season; it’s unlikely the Royals would give much consideration to moving anyone from that group.

Onto some more plausible names, beginning with the focus of yesterday’s White Sox rumors…

Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS | Age: 27 (28 in March) | Contract: Signed for $3.7MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Lopez has been an all-glove player outside a 2021 season that currently looks anomalous in nature. He posted a .300/.365/.378 batting line in 565 plate appearances that season but did so with a .347 batting average on balls in play that’s 53 points higher than his career mark of .294. Lopez is a career .252/.309/.321 hitter in more than 1600 plate appearances. To say he doesn’t hit the ball hard would be an understatement; Lopez ranked 246th of 252 qualified hitters with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 250th with a 22.9% hard-hit rate. Statcast ranked him in the third percentile of MLB hitters in terms of “expected” slugging percentage.

That’s not a ringing endorsement of Lopez by any stretch, but he has plenty of positive attributes: namely his bat-to-ball skills and prodigious defensive prowess. Lopez fanned in just 13.1% of his plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, exhibiting strong contact skills. He doesn’t take especially lengthy at-bats (average 3.66 pitcher per plate appearance, compared to the league-average 3.9), but Lopez puts the ball in play and runs fairly well, ranking in the 58th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.

Defensively, there are few better players in the game — at least in the estimation of Statcast. He’s been an above-average but not elite defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average credits Lopez with excellent marks at second base (12) and particularly at shortstop (31) in his career. The sure-handed Lopez has made just 20 errors as a big leaguer and shown aptitude at both middle infield slots as well as in briefer sessions at the hot corner.

With three more years of club control remaining, there’s no urgency to trade Lopez. However, the Royals have Witt at shortstop and want to give 24-year-old Michael Massey a chance to claim the second base job.

Scott Barlow, RHP | Age: 30 | Contract: Signed for $5.3MM, arb-eligible through 2024

Likely the most popular potential trade chip on the Royals, Barlow has stepped up as the team’s closer and solidified himself as a quality late-game option in Kansas City. He’s pitched matching totals of 74 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, logging a combined 2.30 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 43.3% grounder rate, 0.79 HR/9 mark and 40 saves.

Over the past two seasons, Barlow is tied for 22nd among 138 qualified relievers with a 15% swinging-strike rate. His 36.9% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ties him for 15th in that same set of hurlers. Barlow has also excelled at hitting spots and freezing batters (18.1% called-strike rate), and his combined 33.1% called strike-plus-whiff rate is eighth among MLB relievers since 2021. He limits hard contact extremely well (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 30.3% hard-hit rate in 2022), has plus spin on his heater and generates plus extension with his delivery, per Statcast.

It’s not all roses with Barlow, however. He saw his average fastball dip from 95.3 mph in 2021 to 93.7 mph in 2022. In conjunction, both his strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate saw notable drops. This past season’s 1.09 HR/9 mark was the worst he’s posted in a full season, and (likely because of the drop in strikeouts) Barlow needed a charitable .240 average on balls in play to get to his sparkling 2.18 ERA; that’s 75 points lower than his 2021 mark and 84 points lower than the career mark he carried into 2022. It’s not likely to be repeated, so if the velocity and strikeouts remain at their 2022 levels, Barlow’s ERA is going to be in for quite a bit of regression.

Even with some modest red flags in 2022, Barlow remains a quality reliever who can be controlled at a relatively affordable rate for the next two seasons. If he were a free agent this winter, he’d surely have commanded a good bit more than the $12-14MM or so he’ll command in his final two arbitration seasons. There’s surplus value here, and if the Royals are (understandably) pessimistic about their chances in 2023, Barlow’s trade value will be at its apex either now or this summer.

Taylor Clarke, RHP | Age: 29 (30 in May) | Contract: Signed for $1.15MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Cut loose by the D-backs after the 2021 season, Clarke signed a surprising Major League deal with Kansas City and proved a shrewd pickup, tossing 49 innings with a 4.04 ERA. Clarke logged 10 holds and a trio of saves but worked more in low- and medium-leverage spots than in high-leverage scenarios.

It might be a middle relief profile, but if you squint there’s perhaps a bit more here. Clarke’s 3.9% walk rate was elite, and he posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (23.6%), swinging-strike rate (12.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.5%) — all while averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball. Fielding independent metrics felt he was far better than his ERA (3.30 FIP, 3.15 xERA, 3.16 SIERA). He doesn’t immediately jump out as a trade candidate, but three affordable years of control on a hard-throwing reliever who’s trending in the right direction might pique another team’s interest.

Amir Garrett, LHP | Age: 30 (31 in May) | Contract: Signed for $2.65MM, free agent after 2023 season

The Royals picked up Garrett in the March trade that sent lefty Mike Minor to Cincinnati. It didn’t work out particularly well for either side. Garrett pitched 45 1/3 innings and limped to a 4.96 ERA as his longstanding command woes spiked to new heights. Garrett walked 16.3% of his opponents last year, plunked another five batters and threw seven wild pitches. His 94.2 mph average fastball was his lowest mark since moving to the bullpen full-time.

Garrett still whiffed a quarter of his opponents, however, and he somewhat incredibly didn’t give up a home run all season. Unsustainable as that feat may be, its reflective of the fact that Garrett didn’t really get hit hard in Kansas City (88.3 mph exit velo, 30% hard-hit rate). Hard-throwing lefties who can miss bats are always going to find work, and Garrett’s salary is quite affordable.

At his best, Garrett logged a 3.03 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate in 74 1/3 innings from 2019-20. Another club might look at him as a bargain power arm who could be fixed.

Brad Keller, RHP | Age: 27 | Contract: Signed for $5.775MM, free agent after 2023 season

It’s been a rough couple seasons for Keller, who from 2018-20 looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft picks in recent memory. Keller logged a 3.50 ERA through his first three seasons, going from a long reliever to an entrenched member of the Kansas City rotation. His 2021-22 seasons, however, have gone the opposite direction. Since Opening Day 2021, Keller has a 5.24 ERA in 273 1/3 innings. His walk rate has crept upward, and his once solid abilities to avoid hard contact have seemingly evaporated; Keller’s 1.15 HR/9 mark over the past two seasons is nearly double the 0.60 rate he turned in from 2018-20. His opponents’ barrel and hard-hit rates have exploded from 4.5% and 35.7%, respectively, to 8.7% and 42.8%.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Keller’s only trip to the Major League injured list (Covid-related list excluded) was in 2021 when he missed the final month of the season due to a lat strain. That didn’t seem to linger into the 2022 campaign, as Keller avoided the IL entirely while making 22 starts and another 13 relief appearances. At the very least, he should be viewed as a durable, affordable, innings-eating rental. And, if a team can restore his once-plus slider to its previous form, there’s bargain potential for the righty, who won’t turn 28 until late July.

Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF | Age: 31 | Contract: Guaranteed $17.5MM through 2024, plus $10MM club option for 2025

Dozier’s outstanding 2019 season feels like a distant memory. He slashed .279/.348/.522 with 26 home runs that season, clocking in at 23% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. (If that seems low, recall that 2019 is widely regarded as a season in which MLB juiced the baseballs, resulting in unprecedented levels of offense throughout the game.)

Since that time, Dozier has recorded a tepid .226/.297/.391 batting line. His authoritative batted-ball profile from that 2019 season has wilted and now looks quite pedestrian, and Dozier doesn’t have the defensive skills to offset his now lackluster offense. He’s posted respectable defensive grades at first base but ranks as one of the worst third basemen and right fielders in the sport, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

With $17.5MM in guaranteed money left on his contract, Dozier’s deal is underwater. He could potentially be swapped out for another bad contract, although the Royals typically haven’t made that type of move in the past.

Longer Shots

There are, of course, others who could potentially be of interest to other clubs. The Royals control Brady Singer for another four seasons, and he just enjoyed what looks like a breakout 2022 campaign. Given that glut of remaining club control, however, there’s little reason to entertain the idea of moving Singer unless another team makes a staggering offer. For different reasons, reliever Josh Staumont also seems unlikely to go. The Royals control Staumont through 2025, and from 2020-21 he looked like a long-term piece in the bullpen. Staumont’s walk rate spiked to an awful 16.5% last year, though, and he missed a combined seven weeks with a neck strain and biceps tendinitis. Trading him now would be selling low on a potential power-armed, leverage reliever.

Behind the plate, Salvador Perez is entrenched as the effective captain of the Royals. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote earlier in the offseason that the Royals have no interest in moving Perez, who’s owed $64MM over the next three seasons. That’s not at all surprising, given his status within the organization. Some might naturally think that means young catcher and recent top prospect MJ Melendez could be available, but the Royals have worked Melendez into the outfield and DH mix as well. With six years of club control remaining, there’s little reason to think he’d be available, particularly on the heels of a down season. Melendez isn’t the type of player on whom the Royals would sell low.

Royals Transfer Jake Brentz To 60-Day IL

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The Royals announced some roster moves today, reinstating lefty Amir Garrett from the COVID-related injured list. To make room for him on the active roster, fellow southpaw Angel Zerpa was optioned to Triple-A. Yet another lefty, Jake Brentz, was transferred to the 60-day IL in order to create room for Garrett on the 40-man roster.

Brent made it to the major leagues for the first time last year and had a strong debut season. He threw 64 innings with a 3.66 ERA, 49% ground ball rate and 27.3% strikeout rate, though his walks were on the high side at 13.3%. This year, however, things got off to a disastrous start, with Brentz allowing 14 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings, which included an awful 28.9% walk rate. He landed on the injured list in late April due to a left flexor strain. At the time, manager Mike Matheny said that Brentz had been ailing for some time, which perhaps explains those struggles.

Today’s transfer means he won’t be eligible to return until 60 days from the initial IL placement, which would be late June. Matheny tells Anne Rogers of MLB.com that this doesn’t affect the timeline for Brentz, who wasn’t going to be ready to return at that point anyway. The club could use the roster spot because of their COVID situation. Garrett was one of three players on the COVID list, meaning he wasn’t occupying a spot on the 40-man roster. Moving Brentz to the 60-day cleared up a spot for him, though the club still has Matt Peacock and Gabe Speier on the COVID-IL, meaning further roster maneuvering will be required down the line.

Royals Place Amir Garrett, Kyle Isbel On Injured List

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The Royals announced a series of roster moves today, with left-handed pitcher Amir Garrett and outfielder Kyle Isbel both going on the injured list. No designation was given for their IL placement, which suggests they are going on the COVID-related IL. Right-hander Dylan Coleman has been recalled to take one of the spots on the active roster, with outfielder Brewer Hicklen’s contract being selected for the other.

After previously spending his entire career with the Reds, Garrett was sent to KC in a March trade and has thrown 13 2/3 innings for his new team with a 4.61 ERA. It’s been a strange campaign for the southpaw so far, as his 29.1% strikeout rate is fairly similar to last year’s mark, but his walk rate has shot up to 20%. That’s much higher than his 13.5% mark last year, which was already above league average. He’s been able to limit the damage due to not allowing a homer yet on the year and also having an unsustainable .148 BABIP. With Garrett out, Gabe Speier is now the only lefty in the team’s bullpen.

Isbel got his first taste of the big leagues last year, hitting  .276/.337/.434 for a 109 wRC+ in 28 games. He’s taken a step back this season, with his line currently sitting at .276/.295/.345, 84 wRC+. He and Michael A. Taylor have gotten most of the center field starts this year, but both are now on the COVID-IL. Dairon Blanco was selected to the roster last week to replace Taylor, with Isbel now being replaced by Hicklen.

No indication was given as to whether Garrett or Isbel has tested positive for COVID. Players can be placed on the COVID-related IL for positive tests, experiencing symptoms or for contract tracing purposes. Under the league’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence from the club. It’s possible to be reinstated in less time if the player has gone 24 or more hours without a fever, received a pair of negative PCR tests, and been given approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA joint committee (a panel of one league-appointed and one union-appointed physician).

Hicklen, 26, was selected by the club in the seventh round of the 2017 draft. After some strong performances in the minors, he got himself onto the radar of prospect watchers, with Baseball America putting him on their list of the top 30 KC prospects in 2019 and the following two years as well. Last year, he reached Double-A for the first time, putting up a line of .243/.346/.434. That amounts to a wRC+ of 110, though his best asset is his speed, as evidenced by his 40 steals last year. This year, he got the bump to Triple-A and has hit .266/.350/.455 for a wRC+ of 117, though his already-high strikeout rate has jumped up to 38.8%. The speed is still there, though, as he’s already swiped 11 bags in 42 games. He’s in the Royals’ lineup tonight, batting ninth and playing center field, making his major league debut.

Royals, Reds Swap Mike Minor For Amir Garrett

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The Royals have traded left-handed starter Mike Minor and cash to the Reds in exchange for left-handed reliever Amir Garrett, per announcements from both teams.

Minor, 34, is headed into the second season of a two-year, $18MM contract originally signed with Kansas City. He’s due $10MM this season, plus a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for the 2023 season. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Royals are covering that $1MM buyout. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that Kansas City is also covering $500K of Minor’s salary. That leaves the Reds on the hook for about $7.3MM in additional salary commitments, when factoring in the projected $2.2MM (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) that would’ve gone to the arbitration-eligible Garrett.

It’s frankly bizarre to see Cincinnati take on cash to acquire a struggling veteran starter, considering they commenced their offseason by placing a highly productive veteran starter, Wade Miley, on outright waivers — content to just give him away in order to save the same $10MM salary that is owed to Minor. The move to add Minor, who has an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his past two seasons, is a clear downgrade over simply keeping Miley. One can also imagine that if the goal was to add a veteran to the staff after trading Sonny Gray, there were options in free agency at a similar or even lesser price point.

Minor has been a durable source of innings over the past four years, starting at least 28 games in each full season and another 11 during the shortened 2020 campaign. However, he posted a 5.05 ERA in Kansas City through last year’s 158 1/3 innings, punching out 22.3% of his opponents against a strong 6.1% walk rate. Metrics like FIP (4.29) and SIERA (4.20) feel Minor’s strikeout and walk rates ought to have yielded a better ERA, but it’s quite a bet for him to bounce back when factoring in how the change of scenery could adversely impact Minor. As a fly-ball pitcher whose biggest Achilles heel during that time has been a susceptibility to home runs (1.43 HR/9 since 2018), the move to Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park seems like a poor fit (particularly at a time when the National League is adding the designated hitter).

Perhaps the Reds plan to explore additional trade scenarios surrounding Minor. Perhaps they believe pitching coach Derek Johnson, who coached Minor at Vanderbilt more than a decade ago, can help Minor return to form. Whatever the motivation behind the trade, it’s strange to see Cincinnati going out of its way to add salary after so aggressively finding ways to cut payroll over the past 18 months. In a vacuum, the trade for Minor is a sensible enough bet on a rebound for a prominent veteran — but in the context of the Reds’ recent string of transactions, it’s just rather puzzling.

As for the Royals, they’ll add a hard-throwing lefty with big bat-missing ability who has never quite put things together for a prolonged run of success. The 29-year-old Garrett averages 95 mph on his heater and has fanned just under 30% of his opponents dating back to 2018, but he’s also susceptible to walks (12.1%) and home runs (1.36 HR/9). Home runs have been a particular issue for Garrett over the past two seasons, although a move out of Cincinnati and into the spacious Kauffman Stadium could help him cut back on those long balls.

Garrett is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, so if the new environs can finally coax some consistency from him, he could be a vital piece of the Royals’ relief corps. Beyond the strikeouts and velocity, Garrett ranks 14th among all qualified relievers with a 15.7% swinging-strike rate since 2019, so the potential for a breakout is there. He’ll join a Kansas City bullpen that is increasingly deep in hard-throwing arms who can miss bats, pairing with righties like Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow as well as southpaw Jake Brentz.

Reds Rumors: Castillo, Bullpen, Garrett

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It was only natural that after waiving Wade Miley and trading Tucker Barnhart within hours of the offseason opening, rumblings of the Reds being open to further cost-saving moves would emerge. However, despite early reports that Cincinnati will at least listen to offers on righty Luis Castillo, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that it’s “doubtful” the 28-year-old (29 next month) will ultimately change hands.

This marks the second straight offseason that Castillo’s name has surfaced in trade rumblings, which only makes sense given that it’s also the second straight winter punctuated by cost-cutting measures in Cincinnati. General manager Nick Krall has already stated that the Reds “must align our payroll to our resources.” While no specific number was provided, that certainly doesn’t bode well for Reds fans — particularly when taken in conjunction with the aforementioned Miley and Barnhart transactions.

Rosenthal’s report is likely reflective of what is surely a sky-high asking price for the talented Castillo, who racked up the eighth-most innings of any pitcher in MLB last season (187 2/3). While Castillo’s 3.98 ERA looks more solid than dominant, it’s skewed a bit by a rough start to the season from which he recovered rather emphatically.

Sporting an alarming and uncharacteristic 7.22 ERA through the end of May, Castillo looked on his way to a lost season. From June 1 through season’s end, however, Castillo rebounded with a masterful 2.73 ERA with a strong 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. That recovery salvaged Castillo’s 2021 season and brought his ERA over the past three campaigns to a sharp 3.61 mark through 448 1/3 frames.

Controlled through 2023 via arbitration, Castillo is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.6MM in 2022. He’d be due one more raise for the 2023 campaign, likely taking his salary into at least the $11-12MM range — still an eminently reasonable price to pay for a pitcher of this caliber.

The Reds and other clubs likely view Castillo as a pitcher capable of taking his game to yet another level. While his results over the past three seasons are quite strong already, the makings of a top-of-the-rotation starter are seemingly present. Castillo’s 97.3 mph average fastball trailed only Sandy Alcantara and Gerrit Cole among qualified starters this past season, while his 13.1% swinging-strike rate (a down mark, by his standards) ranked 10th. Castillo also sports an elite ground-ball rate, a well above-average strikeout rate and typically limits hard contact at a high level.

The extent to which owner Bob Castellini is seeking to reduce payroll will determine the urgency when it comes to moving Castillo, but even if Krall and his staff feel compelled to move him eventually, the return would be considerable. (As a loose comparison, recall that the Blue Jays traded 2020 No. 5 overall pick Austin Martin and well-regarded pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson to acquire what was then 1.5 seasons of Jose Berrios back at the trade deadline.) Even if teams feel it’s “doubtful” the Reds actually trade Castillo, they’ll surely still try to pry him away — just as they’ll likely do with righties Sonny Gray (guaranteed $10MM in 2022) and Tyler Mahle (like Castillo, controlled via arbitration through 2023).

Krall, however, didn’t focus on subtracting from the roster in his most recent public comments. To the contrary, the GM spoke with Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer this week about a need to “rebuild some of the bullpen” after seeing Mychal Givens and Michael Lorenzen reach free agency and losing Tejay Antone (Tommy John surgery) for the 2022 season.

Heading into the 2022 campaign, the most experienced arms in the Reds’ bullpen group will be Lucas Sims, Amir Garrett, Luis Cessa and lefty Justin Wilson, who exercised a $2.3MM player option at season’s end. Righty Art Warren, he of a 1.29 ERA and 34-to-8 K/BB ratio in 21 innings after being claimed from the Mariners, should have a spot locked down as well. Krall offered plenty of praise for Sims and Warren, also adding that righty Tony Santillan may be stretched out as a rotation candidate in Spring Training but could yet end up in the ’pen.

Perhaps most interestingly among Krall’s comments — which Cincinnati fans, in particular, will want to read in full — was his rather noncommittal stance on Garrett. The 29-year-old southpaw was one of the Reds’ best relievers from 2019-20, pitching to a 3.03 ERA with a 33.3% strikeout rate (albeit against a 13.3% walk rate).

Garrett, however, was clobbered for a 6.04 ERA this past season as his strikeout and walk rates went in the wrong direction. Projected for a $2.2MM salary in 2022, Garrett looked like a possible non-tender candidate in the first place, and Krall’s assessment that he’s “in our bullpen at this point” wasn’t exactly an emphatic vote of confidence. The GM did go on to eventually call Garrett a “quality member of the bullpen that should be able to help,” but between his struggles and projected salary, Garrett doesn’t feel like a lock to return.

Lower-cost paths to improving the depth — Krall specifically mentioned waiver claims — seem a likely path for the Reds moving forward. It’s certainly possible they’ll add a veteran reliever on a big league deal if the asking price isn’t too lofty, and any additional trades could bring back some MLB-ready bullpen help as part of the return. At the very least, the Reds seem likely to bring in a couple of new arms to compete for bullpen jobs, but Krall’s offseason comments and actions to date don’t portend significant spending.

Amir Garrett Receives 7-Game Suspension

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Major League Baseball announced that it has suspended Reds left-handed reliever Amir Garrett for seven games and fined him an undisclosed amount for “inciting a benches-clearing incident” in the eighth inning of last Saturday’s game against the Cubs. Garrett is appealing the suspension.

As video shows (via MLB.com), Garrett was quite animated after striking out Chicago first baseman Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs took offense to Garrett’s action, leading the two dugouts to clear. There were no punches thrown or ejections handed out, but there was plenty of jawing – especially between Garrett and Cubs shortstop Javier Baez (whom the league fined).

After the game, Baez said he wasn’t going to allow anyone to “disrespect my teammates or my team.” And Cubs manager David Ross took a shot at Garrett’s early season performance, saying, “I think that’s just him trying to fire himself up because he’s not throwing well now.”

It has indeed been a tough start to 2021 for Garrett, who entered the season off three straight effective years and proceeded to dominate during the spring. That excellence hasn’t carried over, though, as Garrett has yielded 10 earned runs on 10 hits (including four runs) in just 8 2/3 innings. Garrett has issued more walks (eight) than strikeouts (seven) along the way.

Quick Hits: Bruce, Garrett, Mets, Mariners

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Thanks in part to his ability to play both the corner outfield and first base, Jay Bruce has put himself in the running to make the Yankees’ roster, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes. The Yankees may have to decide in the next week whether to give a spot to Bruce, who can opt out of the minor league contract he signed on March 25. Bruce isn’t on the Yankees’ 40-man roster, which is full, so they will have to make a corresponding move if they do add him. That could spell bad news for another outfielder, the out-of-options Mike Tauchman. While Tauchman unexpectedly thrived as both a hitter and defender in his first year as a Yankee in 2019, his production dipped on both ends last season. Tauchman did post a .342 on-base percentage in 111 plate appearances, but it came with a .242 batting average and almost no power (.305 slugging percentage, .063 ISO and zero home runs). Then again, Bruce didn’t exactly hold his own as a Phillie last year, when the veteran power hitter slashed .192/.252/.469 with six HRs over 103 PA.

  • Good news for the Reds’ bullpen: Left-hander Amir Garrett will pitch in his first spring training game of the year Saturday, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. Forearm soreness has slowed Garrett, perhaps the favorite to close for the Reds if he’s healthy. The 28-year-old notched a 2.45 ERA/2.82 SIERA and fanned hitters at a massive 37.7 percent rate across 18 1/3 innings in 2020.
  • With Carlos Carrasco reportedly to miss six to eight weeks because of a torn hamstring, the Mets are stretching lefty Mike Montgomery out and considering him as a swingman, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com relays. Montgomery, whom the Mets signed to a minors pact, has racked up 183 appearances and 70 starts since he debuted in 2013. The former Mariner, Cub and Royal has combined for a respectable 3.84 ERA during his 541-inning career, though his ERA hovered around the 5.00 mark in each of the previous two seasons.
  • Mariners reliever Andres Munoz suffered a “little setback” in his recovery from Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago and hasn’t taken the mound since, manager Scott Servais told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and other reporters. Munoz underwent the procedure almost exactly one year ago (March 20, 2020), and the Padres then dealt him to the Mariners in a seven-player trade last August. Considering how long it takes to return from TJ surgery, Munoz wasn’t likely to debut with the Mariners until sometime this summer, but now it appears they may have to wait a bit longer. Still just 22, Munoz impressed in his first season, 2019, when he pitched to a 3.91 ERA/3.72 SIERA in 23 innings, struck out 30.9 percent of batters and averaged 99.9 mph on his fastball.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Amir Garrett Hires Boras Corporation

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Reds lefty Amir Garrett has hired the Boras Corporation to represent him, per Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). That relationship is now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Scott Boras needs no introduction here; he’s equal parts renowned and reviled for his less-than-shy pursuit of big free agent paydays. In this case, the client in question isn’t anywhere near the open market, but he’s soon to be due a raise.

Garrett will be up for a contract in 2021, when he’ll reach arbitration for the first of three times. His new agency will be responsible for sorting out an agreement with the Cincinnati organization — or, instead, arguing a case before an arbitrator.

Just how much Garrett can earn will depend upon what he’s able to show in 2020, if indeed there is a season. The 28-year-old’s overall career numbers don’t stand out due to an ugly early run as a starter, but Garrett was a productive reliever last year, when he produced 56 frames of 3.21 ERA ball.

It’s possible to imagine the power southpaw boosting his payout with a big 2020 season, especially if he can rack up a nice tally of holds. (They play well in arbitration; saves are even better but Garrett isn’t first in line in Cincinnati.) There’s downside as well. Garrett produces a lot of swings and misses (16.2% swinging-strike rate; 12.5 K/9) but is also no stranger to the free pass (5.6 BB/9).

Reds Offense, Not The Bullpen, Responsible For Struggles In Close Games

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The Reds bullpen crumbled down the stretch in 2019, but confidence remains high in their core group of high-impact relievers, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”

The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.

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All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.

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