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Market Notes: Cuban Players, Ibanez, Mets

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Cuban ballplayers coming to the big leagues have never had a higher profile. And with large sums of money being invested in those players, teams have never had more obvious incentives to fully vet them. Nevertheless, tweets ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, different clubs still seem to have widely divergent views about the true talent levels of many players coming over from the neighboring island, creating a true “boom or bust” scenario in some cases.

Here are a few more notes from around the game to start the day:

  • One Cuban player who has gone under the radar of late is young second baseman Andy Ibanez. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez notes on Twitter that Ibanez remains unsigned and adds that he could still elect to sign in the next July 2 period.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson says the team “wasn’t complacent” about addressing the club’s shortstop situation over the winter, as Casey Stern of MLB Network Radio tweets. New York “went through seven or eight opportunities,” says Alderson, but of course ultimately decided to go with in-house options Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada.

 

Cuba Notes: Yoilan Serce, Olivera, Dodgers, D’Backs

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There’s another middle infielder name to be aware of, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter links) and Ben Badler of Baseball America (via Twitter). Yoilan Serce, 27, will put on a showcase tomorrow in Florida. The second baseman owns an attractive .325/.395/.468 slash in his nine-year run in Cuba, but his power numbers dipped significantly over the past two seasons, with his slugging percentage coming in shy of .400 for the first time in his career. If you want an early look at Serce, check the second link to Sanchez’s Twitter account above to watch a few BP cuts.

Here are a few more notes on the thriving market for Cuban ballplayers:

  • Should the Dodgers land infielder Hector Olivera, as some have suggested is likely, the plan would almost certainly be to use him at third base, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports report. Los Angeles would need to figure out a role or a trade for incumbent Juan Uribe in that scenario. The difficulty with stashing Uribe on the bench, of course, is that his value is tied up primarily in his glove at the hot corner. While he probably would have drawn some interest after a strong 2014, it is not clear whether there are many obvious suitors at this point.
  • As others have suggested, and Rosenthal explains, there are good reasons to think that the teams that have already blown past their international bonus pool allocations will be the ones to make most of the significant investments in young Cuban talent over the coming months. Alternatively, teams that have yet to incur the significant penalties for going well over their spending allotment are waiting to see if they can land multiple players so as to make it worthwhile.
  • The Diamondbacks, for instance, already signed Yoan Lopez and now have interest in second baseman Andy Ibanez, per the report. Sources also tell Rosenthal that Arizona is out of cash, however.

Updates On The Top Cuban Free Agents

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Yoan Moncada, Hector Olivera and Yadier Alvarez represent the top three names on the Cuban market right now, with Andy Ibanez ranking as perhaps the fourth-most intriguing option from the island. Both Moncada and Ibanez are eligible to sign at any time, while Olivera is still awaiting MLB’s clearance. Alvarez is the furthest from signing, as he’s yet to establish residency in another country, which must be completed before he can begin the process of getting cleared.

There’s been a quite a bit written on each of these four of late, so we’ll look at each on a case-by-case basis within this post. All information is courtesy of this excellent and comprehensive piece from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez unless otherwise noted.

Yoan Moncada

Moncada has yet to receive a formal offer, Sanchez writes, but he’s worked out privately for the Cubs, D-backs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers and Brewers, and there could be other private workouts to come.  Some scouts are a bit skeptical of Moncada’s ability to hit from the right side of the plate, but the belief is that he won’t require a lengthy stint in the minors before being ready for the big leagues.

Sanchez notes that any team that signs Moncada would have until July 15 to pay the overage tax on what will be a historic bonus, and that bonus can be paid out in installments over the next three years. So, while shelling out the tax due to the league in one lump sum may be onerous for smaller-market clubs like the Padres, the timeline on that payment is at least pushed back a ways.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently spoke to multiple executives regarding Moncada’s potential bonus, and while one estimated that the bonus alone could reach $50MM, others have expressed some skepticism at the numbers that have been thrown around. Rosenthal spoke to execs that are clearly on both ends of the Moncada spectrum, as one estimated a $30MM maximum bonus, with something in the range of $20MM being more likely. Of course, that would still shatter the current record, held by Yoan Lopez ($8.25MM).

Digging further into the Moncada market, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke with Moncada’s agent, David Hastings, who iterated once again that he hopes to have Moncada in camp for Spring Training. Said Hastings of that goal: “Certainly that’s not all within our power, as we have to wait for teams to make a commitment, and we have to choose the team we think best suits my player. But hopefully we’re down to the final stages of the process and we can begin the contract phase.” Hastings added that he wants to give as many as teams as possible the opportunity to bid on his client, so the volume of private workouts Moncada has attended isn’t exactly surprising. Lin characterizes the Padres as a potentially “unlikely, if not improbable destination” for Moncada. The Dodgers and Yankees remain the favorites, per Sanchez.

Hector Olivera

The 29-year-old Olivera, who turns 30 in April, is said to be seeking a five- or six-year pact along the lines of the contracts signed by Yasmany Tomas (six years, $68.5MM with a year-four opt-out) and Rusney Castillo (seven years, $72.5MM), Sanchez writes. (Remember that Oliver’s age and professional experience make him exempt from international spending limitations.) A recent report by Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs depicts that as highly unlikely; McDaniel noted that concerns over Olivera’s age and a blood clot disorder (thrombosis) may limit his contract to three years, or potentially four, if multiple clubs become aggressive. He did concede that something around $10MM annually could be possible.

Sanchez writes that the 6’2″ Olivera is in the best shape of his career and has “wowed” in open showcases and private workouts, leading many to believe he could hit 15 to 20 homers annually.

Were Olivera younger, I’d be more inclined to believe that he could command something in the vicinity of the Tomas and Castillo deals, but I personally can’t envision that for a player of his age. Tomas will be younger than Olivera is right now when his six-year contract expires, and Castillo’s deal runs through just his age-32 season. A six-year pact for Olivera would carry through his age-35 campaign, so despite having seemingly impressive power for a second baseman (he can also play third), those goals seem far-fetched.

Lin notes that the Padres also have some interest in Olivera and may turn their sights his way if they’re unable to land Moncada. Padres pro scouting director/senior adviser Logan White attended Olivera’s final showcase in the Dominican Republic last week, per Lin.

Though Olivera isn’t yet cleared to sign, Sanchez hears that he could sign within 24 hours of being declared a free agent. The Mariners, Braves and Dodgers are the most likely landing spots for Olivera, per Sanchez, who also lists the Yankees and Padres as interested clubs. Clearly, Seattle is an odd fit, given the presence of Robinson Cano and the recently extended Kyle Seager. Perhaps, however, the Mariners would have interest in using Olivera in a corner outfield spot or in some form of super utility capacity.

Yadier Alvarez

One high-ranking NL official told Sanchez that Alvarez was the best 18-year-old pitcher he’s ever seen following a showcase in which he touched 98 mph on the radar gun and also showed a plus slider and above-average changeup. Scouts to whom Sanchez has spoke believe he could eventually become a No. 2 starter. One international scouting director also told Sanchez that given Alvarez’s age and lower asking price, he prefers the right-hander to Moncada.

The Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, Nationals, Blue Jays, Padres, A’s, Cardinals, Twins and Brewers are all interested, per Sanchez, with the D-Backs and Nationals as the likeliest destinations at the moment. However, Alvarez is still early on in the process, so those seem the most likely to change of any of Sanchez’s likely destinations.

Andy Ibanez

Ibanez, 21, has drawn comps to Omar Infante, Howie Kendrick, Miguel Cairo and Placido Polanco from scouts, Sanchez writes, although he’s probably a couple of years away from contributing in the Majors. As other reports have indicated, Ibanez’s tools don’t blow scouts away, but he does have Major League potential. Sanchez lists the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, D-Backs, Brewers, Mariners, and Padres as interested parties, with the Yankees, Dodgers and Padres as the likeliest landing spots.

Latest On Cuban Market: Gutierrez, Olivera, Ibanez

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While much of the focus has been on stud prospect Yoan Moncada, another Cuban infielder — veteran Hector Olivera — is the biggest wild card looming over the traditional free agent market. Another intriguing younger player is available in Andy Ibanez, and the market also saw yet another possible infusion of talent over the weekend, with young righty Vladimir Gutierrez and infielder Dainer Moreira defecting.  Here’s the latest…

  • Gutierrez is applying for political asylum in Puerto Rico, according to El Nuevo Dia, a Puerto Rican newspaper (hat tip to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez).  If he claims asylum in Puerto Rico and then establishes residence in another country, he’ll go through the usual international signing process. If he establishes residence in Puerto Rico, however, Gutierrez would be eligible for the first-year draft since Puerto Rico is a United States territory.
  • Moncada has at least one workout scheduled during the week of February 16th-20th, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports (via Twitter), so Badler doesn’t think the phenom will sign before then.

Earlier Updates

  • Olivera petitioned MLB for free agency two weeks ago and has not yet received a determination, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. On the positive side for Olivera, it would appear that the new rules regarding clearance of Cuban players will permit him to sign as soon as he receives the nod from MLB.
  • While Olivera waits, he is working out for clubs and trying to build a market, as Sanchez further tweets. Olivera has held session recently for the Padres, Mariners, Giants, Yankees, and Braves. He has open showcases scheduled for this Friday and next Wednesday.
  • Indeed, the Mariners had more than the usual contingent on hand to see both Olivera and Ibanez, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. Seattle sent not only GM Jack Zduriencik but also president Kevin Mather to join international director Tim Kissner in the Dominican Republic for the private workout. As Badler notes, that level of front office involvement is unusual, and is all the more odd in this case since the club has Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager installed in the infield.
  • Cuban baseball documentary project El Trogon (cinematographer Jonathan Miller, director Sami Kahn) has video from Puerto Rico depicting Gutierrez and Moreira, who left their team, Pinar del Rio, during the Caribbean Series.

Latest On Signing Eligibility Of Cuban Players

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SATURDAY: MLB sent a memo to teams today instructing them not to sign Cuban players, Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (all Twitter links). MLB said it hoped to receive advice from OFAC “early next week,” hoping to receive assurances that the league won’t be getting itself into trouble if Cuban players falsify their identities. If it does get those assurances, players like Moncada, Olivera and Ibanez might become eligible to sign right away.

FRIDAY: There has been quite a bit of confusion of late as to how and when a group of high-profile Cuban middle infielders will be freed to sign. The U.S. Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) — the agency tasked with administering the United States’ now-loosening embargo against Cuba — has now notified Yoan Moncada in writing that it will not consider specific licenses for Cuban players who are already unblocked via the general license, agent David Hastings tells Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs.

Ben Badler of Baseball America explains the distinction here. In essence, the general license requires only residence in a third country, while the specific license carries more stringent standards. This news effectively means that OFAC will not perform any particularized assessment of Cuban players seeking to sign with MLB clubs.

The result is that, in McDaniel’s words, “the onus is now 100% on MLB.” Badler has previously explained the league’s role in this regard, and the OFAC letter to Moncada’s representative appears to remove any room for interpretation.

Simply put, the league must decide whether simply to accept the general license as sufficient for signing eligibility or find some other procedure to replace the OFAC specific license. If MLB decides to allow the general license to suffice, then presumably all Cuban players who have established third-country residence would become eligible to sign — including, presumably, Moncada and fellow top players Hector Olivera and Andy Ibanez.

As McDaniel goes on to explain, the latest industry speculation holds that the veteran Olivera could land a guarantee of between $20MM to $40MM. The younger Ibanez, meanwhile, is expected to land at or slightly above the range of recent signees Roberto Baldoquin ($8MM) and Yoan Lopez ($8.25MM) while also requiring the signing team to pay a near-100% penalty on that amount.

International Notes: Tejada, Ibanez, Kang

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Longtime big leaguer Miguel Tejada, now 40, has agreed to a one-year deal with the Mexican League’s Pericas de Puebla, Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deports reports. Tejada does not appear to be looking to spark another return to the big leagues, but instead says he wants to play out the season and enjoy one more winter league run before hanging up his spikes.

Here are some more notes with an international flare:

  • While Yoan Moncada has drawn much of the attention, fellow young infielder Andy Ibanez is a legitimate prospect in his own right, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. Ibanez figures to command a pool-busting bonus, says Badler, who breaks down the full history and book on the 21-year-old. Though he lacks the flashy tools of Moncada, Ibanez is framed as a solid all-around player with a promising bat. All said, he is a better prospect than Roberto Baldoquin, who just landed $8MM from the Angels, in Badler’s estimation.
  • The transition from playing in one country to another can be difficult on many levels, as Ryan Sadowski — now the first-ever full-time international scout for the KBO’s Lotte Giants — explained to me on a recent episode of the MLBTR podcast. New Pirates addition Jung-ho Kang is in the midst of just such a move, as Bill Mitchell explores for Baseball America. Kang is currently training in the United States with his now-former KBO club, the Nexen Heroes, before heading to camp with the Bucs to begin his new journey.

Yoan Moncada, Others May Be Nearing Free Agency

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6:26pm: Badler adds (via Twitter) that should Major League Baseball end its previous policy of requiring a specific license, in addition to OFAC’s license, then not only would Moncada be eligible to sign, but second basemen Andy Ibanez and Hector Olivera would also be able to sign immediately.

6:21pm: Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada is close to being declared a free agent and could be cleared to sign with a Major League club as soon as two weeks from now, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.

As Passan writes (and as Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel chronicled recently), changes announced by President Obama allow Cubans that can prove residence in a third country to receive a general unblocking license and avoid the process of being cleared by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). The 19-year-old Moncada has a permanent residency document from Guatemala, a Guatemalan National I.D. and a statement from a Guatemalan bank to prove that residency, Passan reports.

A Treasury Department official tells Passan that if Moncada receives that general license, the onus falls on Major League Baseball to clear the player to negotiate with big league teams. Moncada had previously been waiting for a license from OFAC, but changes to the relations with Cuba now shift responsibility to clear him to MLB (which is one of the reasons that Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently reported that MLB, not OFAC, was preventing Moncada’s free agency). The League has drafted a letter and will request a meeting with OFAC to confirm that the changes to the policy, Passan hears.

Passan adds that MLB is rightfully taking caution in their approach to this, as past cases of Cuban players coming to America have been tainted by forged documentation and bribes to expedite the process. Should there be a conflict with the Cuban Assets Control Regulations, penalties could include $1MM in corporate fines, $250K in personal fines and as many as 10 years in prison. The league issued the following statement to Passan regarding the matter:

“MLB has important questions regarding how the new regulations apply to the unique circumstances of Cuban players based on our significant experience in this area, and our discussions with OFAC in prior years. MLB is committed to following the laws of the United States, and will not change its policy requiring that Cuban Players receive a specific OFAC unblocking license until it confirms with all relevant branches of our government, including OFAC, that any new approach is consistent with the law. We hope to receive clarity on this issue as quickly as possible.”

As it stands, the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs remain the favorites, Passan notes. Of course, the Cubs are presently unable to sign Moncada as they are restricted from signing an international prospect for more than $250K after blowing past their international spending limit in the 2013-14 signing period. Should Moncada not sign rior to June 15, the Cubs would again be able to sign him, while the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Angels would be restricted from doing so after exceeding their own international spending limits from the 2014-15 signing period.

Latest On Yoan Moncada

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The international market provides opportunities to make (mostly) open-market purchases of the rights to the types of players who rarely can be acquired in that manner. Recent years have brought early-prime starters (Masahiro Tanaka, Hyun-jin Ryu), still-youthful sluggers (Jose Abreu, Yoenis Cespedes), and high-upside talents (Yasiel Puig, Jorge Soler). Cuban second baseman Yoan Moncada certainly fits into that last category, rating as the type of player who would be chosen at or near the top of an amateur draft. In that regard, his ultimate payday (bonus plus ~100% penalty) will provide some fascinating insight into team valuations. But, of course, we are still waiting for the United States Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) to establish Moncada’s eligibility to sign. Here’s the latest:

  • The precise hold-up in Moncada’s seemingly overdue OFAC application is not clear, writes Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs. Moncada’s agent indicated that he has not heard from OFAC since President Obama announced changes in the US diplomatic stance toward Cuba, seemingly indicating that higher-level activity is playing a role in Moncada’s situation. As McDaniel explains, MLB is working with the government to determine how to apply new unblocking policies. For what it’s worth, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez notes on Twitter, a similar policy appears to have been in place several years back, when Cespedes was preparing to enter the market.
  • One entirely hypothetical reason for the delay with regard to Moncada, apart from the broader diplomatic considerations, is the fact that he was allowed to leave the island legally. Per McDaniel, concern that money could flow from Moncada back to the Cuban government is a possible, but by no means substantiated, factor distinguishing his situation.
  • Of note, fellow top young middle infielder Andy Ibanez is also rumored to have left the island with the blessing of the government. There are rumblings that he could be unblocked soon, however, McDaniel notes.
  • As for another largely-uncertain bit of information, McDaniel adds that the latest chatter has Moncada going for about a $80MM total investment (based on a $40MM bonus).
  • Moncada worked out for the Dodgers this morning, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. Los Angeles has given public indication of its interest, and if impressed with its private look will certainly have to be counted among the most capable suitors. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and manager Don Mattingly were both on hand, Sanchez reports on Twitter.
  • The other teams to have held private workouts are the Brewers, Rangers, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, and Padres, Sanchez tweets. 

Cuba Notes: Lopez, Moncada, Ibanez, Heredia

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The Diamondbacks made a risky gambit this morning by agreeing to sign righty Yoan Lopez to a record-setting $8.25MM bonus. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs breaks down the spread of opinions on Lopez (Twitter links), with some comparing  him to mid-first-round arms from last year’s draft and others believing he’s destined to be a reliever. Of course, the risk with Lopez is not just in the player. As Ben Badler noted, and Dave Cameron explores in detail, the organization will not be able to deploy its league-leading international bonus allocation next year (or its to-be-decided pool for the following year). Though the club can still trade the rights to portions of its pool, it may have not be able to achieve full value.

Here’s more from the international market:

  • Of course, there is another player by the same first name who comes with even greater hype. Yet Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada remains blocked from putting pen to paper, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. While he waits, Moncada will put on workouts with several teams in the coming month.
  • Fellow second base prospect Andy Ibanez, 21, is set to headline a showcase this coming Friday and Saturday, Sanchez reports. Ibanez is not said to possess the same level of tools or physical ability as Moncada, but does look to be a solid across-the-board talent with a “gamer” reputation, per Sanchez.
  • Meanwhile, back in Cuba, another significant player — center fielder Guillermo Heredia, most recently Baseball America’s 11th-rated prospect from the island — has been suspended from play in Serie Nacional. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, that typically means a player has been charged with a defection attempt, though in Heredia’s case there have been conflicting reports from the island about the cause for the ban. The nation’s baseball commissioner, Heriberto Suarez, reportedly confirmed a four-year suspension for the 23-year-old.
  • Be sure to check Badler’s column for some updates on several other, more minor Cuban players.

Cuban 2B Andy Ibanez Is In Dominican Republic

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NOVEMBER 18: Ibanez is in the Dominican Republic, sources tell Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (Twitter links). There is still no timetable for a showcase, per McDaniel, who says that Ibanez appears to have arrived in the D.R. within the last week. It appears, however, that Ibanez is at least now set to begin the process of making himself available to be signed by MLB clubs.

OCTOBER 27: Andy Ibanez, a 21-year-old second baseman, has left Cuba in pursuit of a Major League contract, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports.  The 5’10”, 183-pound, right-handed hitting Ibanez is believed to have left Cuba sometime before September 21, which was the start of the Serie Nacional season.

Baseball America recently ranked Ibanez eighth on their list of the best prospects still in Cuba, with Badler writing that Ibanez “doesn’t have any premium tools or star upside, but his value lies in being steady in all phases while playing in the middle of the diamond.”  He posted a .267/.377/.435 line over 280 PA last season and won a Gold Glove in his 2011-12 rookie year.  Badler figures that Ibanez would start his Major League career at high-A or Double-A ball.

Since Ibanez has only three seasons of experience in Serie Nacional, he’ll be subject to the 2014-15 international bonus pools.  If Ibanez can get cleared to sign before the 2014-15 signing period ends on June 15, Badler thinks this could give the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays an advantage in signing him since those clubs have already exceeded their pool limits (and thus they don’t have to worry about spending more on new signings).  Those overages will prevent the three teams from signing any bonus pool-eligible players for the next two years, however, so the AL East trio will be out of the running for Ibanez if he isn’t a free agent by that June 15 date.

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