West Injury Notes: Paddack, Gray, Ibanez, Ohtani, Astros
Padres starter Chris Paddack appears to be ready to come off the IL to start Monday’s game in Arizona, according to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee says that Padres manager Jayce Tingler didn’t confirm the plan, but then later listed Paddack as Monday’s starter on Twitter.
For Paddack, his third big league season has been a disappointing one, logging an ERA of 5.13 over 93 innings. That’s a spike from last year’s 4.73 and his 3.33 mark from 2019. His strikeout rate has also gone in the wrong direction. After a solid 26.9% rate in his debut season, it dropped to 23.7% last year and sits at 22.5% so far this year. However, his walk rate has stuck around 5% in every season, which is excellent. (MLB average is 8.7% this year.)
Despite those struggles, the team has certainly missed Paddack. Since the righty went on the shelf July 31st with an oblique issue, the team has been on a disastrous slide. They’ve gone 9-15 so far in the month of August, surrendering the final National League playoff spot to Cincinnati. During that time, the rotation was missing not only Paddack, but also Yu Darvish. They tried to patch over those absences with the addition of Jake Arrieta, only to see him land on the IL himself after just one start of 3 1/3 innings. With Darvish having already returned and Paddack on the way, that could allow the team to steady the ship and finish strong, as they try to retake the Reds over the season’s final weeks.
Other notes from the west…
- Rockies starter Jon Gray left last night’s start after 48 pitches. Manager Bud Black told reporters, including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, that the move was precautionary and related to some forearm tightness. Nick Groke of The Athletic gets a bit more granular, explaining that the injured area appears to be away from the ulnar collateral ligament, hopefully negating the worst fears of Rockies fans. Though the extent of the injury remains to be seen, it makes sense for the club to be cautious, as they are 11 games out of a playoff spot. Gray is a free agent at year’s end, but the Rockies are reportedly hoping to sign him to an extension. They will also have to decide on whether or not to issue him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Gray would surely warrant the offer if he’s healthy. Over 806 2/3 career innings, Gray has an ERA of 4.52 while pitching primarily in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, producing 15.7 fWAR.
- Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez left last night’s game with left hamstring tightness, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. She quotes Rangers manager Chris Woodward as being “not optimistic” about the injury. Regardless of the eventual severity of the injury, the club has every reason to be cautious, as they have one of the worst records in the league and no shot at contending. If this is the end of the season for Ibanez, it will go down as a solid rookie campaign for the 28-year-old. He’s hit .260/.304/.415, wRC+ of 96, while splitting time between first, second and third base, as well as one game in left field.
- Shohei Ohtani was hit on the hand by a pitch in last night’s game, while serving as the designated hitter. However, he stuck around for the remainder of the contest and x-rays on the hand came back negative. Angels manager Jeff Madden told reporters, including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, that Ohtani should be fine to make his scheduled start on Tuesday. That is good news for the club and baseball fans in general, as Ohtani is having the most unique and fascinating season that baseball has seen in quite some time, if not ever. He’s currently the MLB home run leader with 41, and has an overall slash line of .264/.363/.623, producing a wRC+ of 160 which is currently bested by only two other qualified hitters. (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper) All of that is combined with Ohtani’s 105 innings in the Angels’ starting rotation with an ERA of 3.00.
- The Astros could be getting a couple of players back this week. Jose Urquidy is pitching in a rehab game tonight, which could be his last before returning, according to Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. Urquidy has only been able to make 14 starts this season because of injuries but has been excellent when healthy, putting up an ERA of 3.38. It’s unclear who would be bumped from the rotation in his absence, but some have speculated that Luis Garcia could be an option. Garcia has already set a career high in innings pitched this year and has seen his results slip a bit recently. Since July 26th, he has an ERA of 4.22. The club has already moved another young starter, Cristian Javier, to the bullpen as a way to manage his workload. The Astros could also be welcoming Chas McCormick back later this week. General manager James Click told various reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that the outfielder could be back as soon as Friday. The club hasn’t suffered much in McCormick’s absence, given that Jake Meyers has been manning center field and has been on a tear. Since having his contract selected last month, in the first 20 games of his career, Meyers is slashing .323/.348/.523.
Rangers Place Brock Holt On 10-Day IL, Select Andy Ibanez
The Rangers announced that they have placed infielder Brock Holt on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 3, with a right hamstring strain. In other moves, the team selected the contract of infielder Andy Ibanez from Triple-A Round Rock and moved catcher Sam Huff from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL. Huff is recovering from right knee surgery.
This is already the second time this season that a right hamstring strain has forced Holt to the IL, as he missed time in April with the same issue. When Holt has been healthy enough to play, the offseason minor league signing has given the Rangers respectable offensive production with a .250/.377/.295 line in 53 plate appearances. Defensively, Holt has lined up exclusively at third base, where he has shared time with Charlie Culberson.
With Holt down, Ibanez will provide the Rangers with some extra depth in their infield. The Cuba native was Baseball America’s third-ranked international prospect in 2015, when he wound up scoring a $1.6MM payday with the Rangers. Ibanez was one of BA’s top 10 Rangers prospects during his first couple of seasons with the organization, but the 28-year-old’s stock has fallen since, and he still hasn’t appeared in the majors. As a minor leaguer, Ibanez is a .285/.352/.443 hitter with 53 home runs in 1,949 plate appearances.
Quick Hits: International Bonuses, Prospects, Analytics, PEDs
It goes without saying that the international market offers an increasingly important route for organizations to acquire fresh talent. With bonus rules overlaying an already complicated array of interests, and loads of new players entering the picture from Cuba, it’s a situation that is ripe for gamesmanship, as Ben Badler of Baseball America explains. Teams have numerous avenues for shifting bonuses between amateur players, many of whom are largely controlled by handlers who have varied and obscure arrangements with multiple youngsters. That situation creates a complex and sub-optimal set of incentives, per Badler, with “package” arrangements often utilized to get around limitations on spending on a single player. The post qualifies as essential reading in this area of the transactional game.
Here are a few more notable pieces worth a look:
- Badler also mines the minor league ranks for prospects who have set themselves up for quick promotions. Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez has looked like a strong international investment and is in line to move up from the low A level; highly-touted Red Sox youngsters Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada seem ready for Double-A; and the Phillies have several players clamoring for a step up the ladder, including top prospect J.P. Crawford.
- Baseball analytics departments have expanded greatly in recent years, as Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur examine at FiveThirtyEight.com. By their tabulations, the number of quantitative-oriented, full-time employees of major league teams has risen from 44 in 2009 all the way to 156 at present. Clubs that moved quickly to build out their teams of analysts have benefited greatly for a relatively meager investment, the study finds. As big-market clubs have increasingly followed their lower-budget competitors, there has been increasing competition for established and entry-level staffers. Interestingly, though, that hasn’t resulted in a reduction in scouting departments; Lindbergh and Arthur write that any downsizing at the professional level “has been more than offset by increased amateur and international coverage.” Unfortunately, women continue to be drastically underrepresented in the analytics and scouting ranks. You’ll certainly want to give this fascinating piece a full read to appreciate it.
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today looks at the current state of PEDs in baseball, asking whether players who test positive are merely those who choose the wrong people to set their drug regimens. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also recently addressed the subject, with several prominent players telling him that the use of illicit substances remains a major problem in the game. Improving the current league efforts to stamp out the problem may be less a matter of tweaking the already-significant penalties than it is one of somehow getting ahead of those who are figuring ways around testing. “If there was a type of testing that guaranteed every person that used PEDs would be caught, I would be all for it,” Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw tells Rosenthal. “I don’t think the problem is the length of the suspension, but more the improbability of being caught.”
- As the Phillies‘ new front office reshapes the organization’s approach to analytics, it is seeking to manage the volume of information in a way that optimizes its function, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. “That information can be overwhelming,” says GM Matt Klentak. “There is so much information. The key for our front office and coaching staff and, ultimately, our players is that we’re isolating the information that helps players and coaches in the moment without locking them up.”
West Notes: A’s, Kazmir, Machi, Ibanez
The Athletics are in a “holding pattern” on trade talks as they continue to see how things progress in the coming weeks, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). Nevertheless, likely buyers appear to be taking a close look at Oakland’s roster, as Rosenthal counts the Blue Jays, Astros, Royals, Tigers, Nationals, and Pirates among the clubs that sent scouts to last night’s game.
- Scott Kazmir threw for the A’s last night, of course, and left after just three innings of work with forearm tightness. Kazmir insisted after the game that it was not a major source of concern, and indeed Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle notes on Twitter that he was able to play catch today without apparent issue.
- Giants reliever Jean Machi appears at risk of becoming a roster casualty when the club welcomes back Jeremy Affeldt and/or Tim Lincecum, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes on Twitter. The 33-year-old has produced outstanding results in each of the last two seasons, putting up 119 1/3 innings of 2.49 ERA pitching. But it’s been a different story in 2015, as Machi has suffered a notable decline in his strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.8 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9, presently) and owns a 5.29 ERA in 32 1/3 frames.
- The Rangers got a bargain on recent international signee Andy Ibanez, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. Texas landed the 22-year-old infielder for just $1.6MM, but Badler pegs him as roughly equivalent in value to a supplemental first-round or second-round draft pick.
Rangers To Sign Cuban Free Agent Andy Ibanez
The Rangers have agreed to a deal with Cuban infielder Andy Ibanez, Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star-Telegram reports on Twitter. Last we checked in, the 22-year-old had changed his representation to Relativity Baseball.
Ibanez’s deal with Texas is worth $1.6MM, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). That figure means that the Rangers have spent $4.2MM of the roughly $4.5MM they have to spend after acquiring the aforementioned bonus slots. Texas recently added to its international pool via trade, and it could well be that the club was lining itself up to add Ibanez, who is subject to the international signing restrictions.
Ibanez has been available for some time, but was somewhat surprisingly slow to sign. Generally credited as a solid all-around player who lacks any outstanding tools, Ibanez has long been expected to command a significant bonus, as Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote some time back. Ibanez put up back-to-back .800+ OPS years in his two most recent campaigns in Serie Nacional.
$1.6MM is quite an attractive price for Ibanez. Badler is on record with the view that Ibanez is a better prospect than $8MM man Roberto Baldoquin, who cost the Angels double that to sign (with penalties included) along with the sacrifice of future signing opportunities.
Andy Ibanez Changes Representation
Cuban second baseman Andy Ibanez, who has unexpectedly languished on the market despite being declared a free agent months ago, has changed agents, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. He’ll move from Bart Hernandez and Praver/Shapiro to Relativity Baseball.
The 22-year-old appeared to be preparing to sign earlier in the spring, but with his change of agencies it’s now unclear when that might happen. As Badler notes, there seems to be a reasonable likelihood that he’ll ultimately wait until the calendar flips to a new July 2 period, when a new slate of clubs will pull the trigger on spending cap-busting bonuses. (Ibanez is subject to international bonus pools.)
As Badler writes, Ibanez is a well-known and well-regarded prospect. While he does not have any particularly flashy aspects to his game, he’s regarded as a sturdy ballplayer across the board. Badler rates him above fellow young infielder Roberto Baldoquin, who got $8MM from the Angels, but notes that he could nevertheless fall shy of that mark.
International Notes: Ibanez, KBO, Park
The Yankees held a private workout for Cuban infielder Andy Ibanez this week in Florida, Dan Martin and George A. King of the New York Post write (via Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues). Ibanez is already eligible to sign and could receive a bonus of up to around $10MM. (Ben Badler of Baseball America recently noted that Ibanez has outperformed fellow infielder Roberto Baldoquin, who received $8MM from the Angels.) The Yankees would also have to pay a 100 percent tax, since the team that signs Ibanez will be subject to international bonus pool restrictions, and the Yankees have already exceeded theirs. In addition to the Yankees, the Dodgers and Padres have been most strongly connected to Ibanez. Here’s more on baseball throughout the world.
- Global Sporting Integration has a summary of how foreign players are doing in the Korea Baseball Organization so far this season. Many of these players will, of course, be familiar due to their histories in the Majors. Former Dodgers and Phillies reliever Josh Lindblom has pitched well as a starter for the Lotte Giants, posting a 2.81 ERA in six outings, and former big-league infielder Yamaico Navarro is hitting .224/.361/.612 for the Samsung Lions while leading the league with 11 home runs. Eric Thames, Andy Marte, Brett Pill, Henry Sosa and Nyjer Morgan have also performed well so far.
- Pirates infielder Jung-ho Kang would love to be reunited with former Nexen Heroes teammate Byung-ho Park, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. “We communicate a lot,” says Kang through an interpreter. “I told him to challenge himself and strive to get better.” Park, a 28-year-old first baseman, hit 52 home runs for the Heroes last year and was the KBO MVP in 2012 and 2013. He is eligible to be posted after the season, and has already been connected to the Pirates (and a number of other teams). The intensity of the Bucs’ interest in Park could depend on a variety of outside factors, including Pedro Alvarez‘s performance at first base this season and the development of top prospect Josh Bell.
Andy Ibanez Headlining Cuban Showcase Today
Cuban second baseman Andy Ibanez will headline a showcase of four Cuban prospects at the University of Miami today, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (on Twitter). Also working out for teams will be left-hander Ariel Miranda, outfielder Gelkis Jimenez and catcher Lednier Ricardo.
Ibanez, 22, has garnered the most attention of this quartet by a long shot. He was first reported to have defected from Cuba last October, with later reports indicating that he had made his way to the Dominican Republic. Last August, Baseball America ranked Ibanez eighth on a list of the top players still in Cuba, noting that he didn’t have premium tools or superstar upside but was a solid across-the-board contributor at second base.
Because he is under 23 years of age and has less than five years of professional experience in Cuba, Ibanez is subject to international spending limitations. As such, the Cubs and Rangers are ineligible to sign him for more than $250K after vastly exceeding their 2013-14 bonus pools. That effectively crosses them off the list of suitors, unless Ibanez elects to sign after July 2, which would move him into the 2015-16 signing period and clear Chicago and Texas to make aggressive bids. Of course, waiting until July 2 would remove the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels and D-Backs from the equation, as each has handily exceeded their bonus pools in this signing period and would be unable to offer Ibanez more than $300K were he to wait that long.
In January, Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote that Ibanez could very well be the next prospect to bust a team’s international bonus pool. While Ibanez’s signing bonus isn’t expected to approach the jaw-dropping record of countryman Yoan Moncada, Badler did note that Ibanez is a better prospect than Angels farmhand Roberto Baldoquin, who commanded an $8MM signing bonus this past offseason. In parts of three seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, the 5’11”, 185-pound Ibanez is a .283/.348/.419 hitter. Those numbers are a bit skewed by a rather mediocre age-18 rookie campaign, however, when Ibanez mustered just a .692 OPS. His OPS over the two subsequent seasons was north of .800.
Ibanez is said to have drawn interest from the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Padres, D-Backs, Mariners and Brewers, with Sanchez listing the Yankees, Dodgers and Padres as the likeliest landing spots back in February. Clearly, much could have changed since that time. Sanchez also noted that he’s heard Ibanez compared to the likes of Omar Infante, Howie Kendrick, Placido Polanco and, perhaps less favorably, Miguel Cairo.
As for the others, less is known about their upside than that of Ibanez. However, Baseball-Reference’s recent addition of Cuban statistics to its offerings at least allows us to view their track records of performance in Cuba’s top league. The 25-year-old Miranda should be eligible to sign a contract of any amount based on his age and experience. He owns a lifetime 3.78 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 386 innings in Cuba. His best work came in his final season, the 2013-14 campaign, in which he posted a 3.24 ERA with an 80-to-28 K/BB ratio in 77 2/3 innings of work.
Jimenez, 23, lacks the necessary experience to be declared a professional under the international signing rules and is thereby subject to bonus pools. He’s a .270/.329/.326 hitter in parts of three seasons with little power or speed to speak of, based on his stats.
The 27-year-old Ricardo is exempt from spending limitations but comes with a fairly limited track record himself, it would seem. He’s batted .256/.320/.371 in parts of six Cuban seasons, averaging a homer every 52 plate appearances or so throughout his pro career. He held a showcase last July, and as MLBTR reported, about a dozen teams were present, including the Yankees, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Mariners, Astros, Royals, Rangers, Tigers, Athletics, and Reds.
Cuba Notes: Iglesias, Gourriel, Sierra, Alvarez
James Schmehl of MLive.com has the fascinating story of Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias‘s defection from Cuba. Just 18 years old at the time, Iglesias acknowledges being scared — not just of the act of escape, but of the broader uncertainty. As Schmehl explains, the risks of the undertaking extend beyond making it out and not being able to get back in. The fact is, many ballplayers ultimately do not receive significant bonuses and/or do not ultimately make it in professional baseball. You’ll want to give the whole piece a read to learn more about Iglesias.
Here’s more from the Cuban scene:
- Cuban star Yulieski Gourriel, 30, says that he aspires to play in the big leagues (for the Yankees) but will not attempt to defect, Yahoo’s Michael Isikoff reports. Long one of the island’s most coveted players, the infielder has dominated Cuba’s Serie Nacionale with a mix of power and on-base ability. Playing last year in Japan, he slashed .305/.349/.536. “This is the dream of all players — to play at the maximum level of baseball in all the world,” Gourriel said. “… We are ready for the lifting of the blockade. Then we can come play.” Gourriel himself has obviously reached an age where his appeal is waning, though his younger brother Lourdes Gourriel is an intriguing talent whose future could be impacted significantly by changes in the political climate (if any).
- 20-year-old righty Carlos Sierra is one of several Cuban players who will be worth learning about in the months to come, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports. Interestingly, Sierra has been permitted to leave Cuba legally to play in Spain, with plans to come stateside, because he was able to achieve Spanish citizenship. Also in the process of looking for a professional deal is 24-year-old righty Jorge Hernandez, who is presently showcasing for teams. And infielder/outfielder Alejandro Ortiz, 25, is also now eligible to sign.
- And, of course, the most prominent names — Yadier Alvarez and Andy Ibanez — remain unsigned at present. The league has yet to act upon Alvarez’s request for a waiver that would allow him to sign in this or the following July 2 signing period.
Market Notes: Cuban Players, Ibanez, Mets
Cuban ballplayers coming to the big leagues have never had a higher profile. And with large sums of money being invested in those players, teams have never had more obvious incentives to fully vet them. Nevertheless, tweets ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, different clubs still seem to have widely divergent views about the true talent levels of many players coming over from the neighboring island, creating a true “boom or bust” scenario in some cases.
Here are a few more notes from around the game to start the day:
- One Cuban player who has gone under the radar of late is young second baseman Andy Ibanez. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez notes on Twitter that Ibanez remains unsigned and adds that he could still elect to sign in the next July 2 period.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson says the team “wasn’t complacent” about addressing the club’s shortstop situation over the winter, as Casey Stern of MLB Network Radio tweets. New York “went through seven or eight opportunities,” says Alderson, but of course ultimately decided to go with in-house options Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada.