Aramis Ramirez

It’s been interesting to watch the Aramis Ramirez Situation develop.  Here’s what I’ve seen.

Phase 1: Ramirez signs four year, $42MM contract with an option for ’09.  On the surface, it looks like security for both parties.  In reality, it’s more of a two year deal.  Jim Hendry built in the chance for Ramirez to void the contract after 2006 if Ramirez thinks he can get more than the non-guaranteed three years/$33.5MM remaining. Media makes light of the out clause and Ramirez indicates that there’s little chance he’d leave Chicago.  Realistic fans realize that the contract gives the Cubs zero leverage.

Phase 2: In the first year of the contract, Ramirez plays just 123 games because of a quad injury.  He’s quite productive in that time, but no one is publicly worried about the out clause.

Phase 3: In the middle of the 2006 season, the idea of the out clause surfaces again.  Chicago media strangely contends that there’s little chance Ramirez walks away from three years, $33.5MM, non-guaranteed over his age 29-31 seasons with a weak free agent class at his position and tons of teams with money to burn looking for 3Bs.  Ramirez continues to spout the party line about staying in Chicago.

Phase 4: Idea of re-negotiation surfaces, Ramirez starts deferring to his agent when asked about possible free agency.  Media starts planting the seed that Ramirez is lazy and Scott Moore could be a Major League 3B in 2007.  Despite the very serious chance of Ramirez departing and leaving the Cubs with nothing, Hendry does not trade him at the deadline.

Phase 5: Exercising out clause becomes a lock, but Hendry speaks of hammering out a deal with Ramirez within a few weeks of season’s end. 

Phase 6: Though Hendry knew he’d need a manager all along, he contends that the manager search is the reason Ramirez doesn’t have a deal done after a few weeks. 

Phase 7: A-Rod balloon is floated, giving Cubs fans false hope that the team could sustain the loss of Ramirez.  Ramirez’s agent defends the player not running out ground balls and mentions that he might be the "hottest free agent."

Phase 8 (predicted): Agent starts saying that while Ramirez hopes to remain a Cub, his client has earned the right to test the free agent market.

Phase 9 (predicted): Ramirez signs with Angels or Dodgers.  Chicago Tribune starts trying to make Scott Moore seem like a capable replacement.  Cubs fans, having been duped last year that Ronny Cedeno was a suitable alternative to Rafael Furcal, don’t buy it. I hope.

Phase 10 (predicted): Cubs spend a lot of money suboptimally and/or trade Rich Hill/Donald Veal/Sean Gallagher and play .500 ball at best in 2007.

Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll gave hope to Cubs fans everywhere in his chat today.  When posed a question about Aramis Ramirez leaving the Cubs as a free agent, he responded:

"I don’t think Ramirez will leave. In fact, I think the deal’s essentially done to keep him."

I thought that one line was definitely noteworthy, as Carroll is known to have some solid Cubs sources.  Last month, the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan indicated that Ramirez would stay, while SI’s Jon Heyman thought differently.

It seems that SI’s Jon Heyman has a different take than the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan on the Aramis Ramirez situation.  As you recall, Sullivan mentioned ten days ago that the Cubs believe Ramirez won’t exercise his out clause and become a free agent this winter.  It seemed curious, as Ramirez could easily top three years and $33.5MM for his age 29-31 seasons on the open market.

Yesterday afternoon, Heyman commented:

"Aramis Ramirez is telling friends that he plans to exercise an option to opt out of his contract with the Cubs.  Ramirez…is also telling people he’d love to go to New York.  The Astros, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox and Tigers could be among favored players for Ramirez. But, of course, the Cubs won’t let him leave easily."

So what’s it going to be, Aramis?  Honor your current deal (a hometown discount), take more money on the open market, or renegotiate with the Cubs? 

According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune:

"While the Cubs still believe Aramis Ramirez won’t exercise his opt-out clause after this season and leave $22 million on the table to become a free agent, they do have a third baseman in the system with a bright future. West Tenn’s Scott Moore, a 22-year-old prospect who was a first-round draft pick of Detroit in 2002, is tied for second in the Southern League with 20 home runs and ranks third with 68 RBIs. Moore, who was acquired with Roberto Novoa from Detroit in the Kyle Farnsworth trade, is at least a year away from the majors."

Ramirez’s contract, signed in April of last year, calls for $11MM in 2007 and $11.5MM in 2008.  The deal also has an $11MM mutual option for ’09 that becomes guaranteed with 270 games played from 2007-08.  How likely is this?  Here’s a look at Ramirez’s games played.

Age 23: 158 games
Age 24: 142 games
Age 25: 159 games
Age 26: 145 games
Age 27: 123 games
Age 28: 158 games (projected)

2005, Ramirez dealt with groin problems, lower back tightness, a sprained ankle, a bruised shin, and a quad injury.  The quad injury is what really caused the missed time, and it looks like an exception rather than the norm.  So I think it’s safe to say Ramirez is looking at a three-year, $33.5MM deal for his age 29-31 seasons.

One has to wonder whether the Tribune is quietly laying the groundwork for the Scott Moore era in Chicago.  Paul Sullivan hasn’t been a company man, though, so there are probably no hidden motives.  Cubs fans can rest easy for the moment; it appears Ramirez will remain a Cub.

The offseason won’t be without temptation, however.  Ramirez’s toughest competition at the hot corner: Aubrey Huff and Nomar Garciaparra.  He’s younger, he’s better, and he’s healthier than that pair.  The most comparable contract might be Troy Glaus at four guaranteed years, $45MM for 2005-08.  Glaus was entering his age 28 season, though he’d played just 149 games from 2003-04.  Ramirez, on the other hand, just posted his third consecutive 30 HR campaign.  There’s no doubt he could get four guaranteed years (as opposed to the current two) and at least $13MM annually. 

Either Ramirez A)doesn’t exercise his out clause and honors his deal (which is a hometown discount), B)tests the free agent market and finds several superior offers, or C)renegotiates his current deal.  Jim Hendry hopes for A; C seems a lot more likely.