KW Denies Abreu Rumor…Or Does He?
Respected Chicago Tribune sportswriter Mark Gonzales got in touch with Kenny Williams through a spokesman tonight. Based on this article, it seems that Gonzales inquired about the recent Abreu for Contreras/Dye rumor. The word:
"Williams, through a team spokesman, said there is nothing to the report, adding he hadn’t spoken to the Phillies in eight or nine days and that no proposal was tendered."
Now, we didn’t report that this thing was on the verge. My point, rather, was that the White Sox love Abreu. That was confirmed by my source; the actual Dye/Contreras scenario was reportedly broken by Howard Eskin of 610 AM in Philadelphia.
Given that Jermaine Dye is a capable, affordable right fielder, the White Sox aren’t desperate to upgrade right now. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the White Sox go after Abreu down the road. Kenny Williams didn’t seem to be denying interest in Abreu.
What about Jose Contreras? Word is that Houston is the top contender for his services. Nothing would happen either way until the Clemens situation shakes out, and Rosenthal expects him back. We reported the same back in December.
Odds And Ends: Abreu, Manny
In very minor news, ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed righthanded pitcher Jason Simontacchi to a minor league deal. He was slightly less than terrible for Triple A Memphis last year and saw 15 ugly innings in the Majors. He’s not young, but did win 11 games for the Cards back in ’02.
Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News acknowledged the Abreu to the White Sox trade rumor, branding it an "Internet rumor." Fair enough; I could’ve sworn Howard Eskin started this one though. Regardless, I think we should start referring to rumors from the Philadelphia Daily News as simply "newspaper rumors." Why try to identify the source? Too much work.
According to Conlin, "officials from both teams deny any such talks." OK. But I promise that the White Sox have interest in Abreu. Whether they have the goods for it, I’m not sure. While Conlin indicates the White Sox would be settling by adding Gavin Floyd to the deal, my sources and most Phillies fans feel that Floyd as a throw-in is overpayment by the Phils.
If this newspaper rumor about Manny Ramirez is to be believed, the Red Sox have no concept of trading players for equal value. They might as well have asked for John Lackey and Vlad while they were at it.
White Sox Interested In Abreu
Remember that Abreu/Contreras/Dye rumor that was bouncing around last night that couldn’t quite graduate from the Unfounded category? We’re a little closer to a foundation about this one tonight.
A very solid source close to the Phillies tells me that Kenny Williams and the White Sox “love” Bobby Abreu. It’s the first I’ve heard that the club is truly interested in the right fielder. He also mentioned that the Phils would like a pitcher like Jose Contreras. There is some question as to whether the Phils would need to include Gavin Floyd to make an equitable deal.
He said that with the White Sox payroll rising to over $90MM, they can’t take on much more. However, I’ve heard in the past from my White Sox guy that the Sox would actually take the payroll to $105MM. What’s more, the 2006 salaries of Dye, Contreras, and Abreu are a wash. The Phils would take on $13MM and the White Sox would do the same.
The Sox would have to squeeze a marginal $11MM into their payroll in 2007. Abreu is owed $17MM for that season (including a $2MM buyout of his ’08 option). But given that the club likely would have exercised Jermaine Dye‘s affordable $6MM option, it’s a marginal $11 mil for ’07.
This would clearly be a win now move for the Phils, as it would strengthen their team for 2006. The combination of Contreras and Dye was worth 10.5 wins above replacement players in 2005. Abreu was worth 6.8 wins. While he still has potential at age 23, Gavin Floyd can’t be counted on for much after posting a 6.16 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 137 Triple A innings in 2005.
Another interesting nugget is the close friendship between Abreu and Ozzie Guillen. Guillen certainly had some influence on the acquisition and retention of Freddy Garcia.
Manny To Philly Rumor Looks False
This trade rumor has been lighting up forums across the Internet all day long: Manny Ramirez to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu. According to the rumor, it’s "basically a done deal." I got in touch with my very best Phillies source for the scoop. According to my source:
"I checked it out with high-ranking sources as early as 4 p.m., then again at 7. Nothing is going on."
This is definitely an authentic, reliable source, so I have to assume that this trade rumor doesn’t have a leg to stand on. I’m the last guy to want to kill an exciting trade rumor, but Manny for Abreu is not a done deal as far as I can tell.
Kaplan: Cubs “Trying Hard” For Tejada
Late last night I talked to Dave Kaplan, co-host of WGN’s Sports Central. Dave gave me a different take on the Miguel Tejada situation than what my source told me.
He said his sources indicate the White Sox are out of the Tejada sweepstakes and that the Red Sox are also backing away now that Manny said he’ll stay. According to Kaplan, the Cubs are "trying hard." He also mentioned that there’s "still a long way to go to get a deal done, but if the Cubs will include Felix Pie they could get it done."
FoxSports’s Ken Rosenthal threw his hat into the ring last night, indicating that the Phillies have offered Bobby Abreu for Tejada and would play Tejada at third base. Of course, Abreu has the power to veto such a trade.
At any rate, more than one source has indicated that the Tejada situation will get resolved today, whether he stays or goes. I guess we’ll see.
In other news, Dan Connolly of the Chicago Tribune quotes an industry source saying the Cubs are "closing in" on a trade to send Corey Patterson to Baltimore for an unknown minor leaguer. The minor leaguer is said to not be one of the Orioles’ top five. Based on Will Lingo’s top ten list for Baseball America, perhaps numbers 6-10 are possible. I’m just speculating, but the Cubs could really use a guy like Val Majewski if the Orioles would part with him.
Zito, Kendall For Floyd, Abreu, Lieberthal?
A wild rumor has surfaced on the A’s page of MLB.com. According to the site:
"Late Wednesday, another rumor popped up, with the Phillies said to have offered outfielder Bobby Abreu, catcher Mike Lieberthal and pitching prospect Gavin Floyd for lefty Barry Zito and catcher Jason Kendall."
Lieberthal and Kendall had about equal value on the field in 2005. Comparing contracts, the catcher part of the deal is a big win for Oakland. Kendall’s on the hook for $19MM through 2007, while Lieberthal is owed $7.5MM for 2006 only. So the A’s come out a good $11.5MM ahead here, especially considering how bad Kendall could be by 2007.
Zito will be paid $7.9MM in 2006 before he hits free agency. Here’s Dayn Perry’s thoughts on the lefthander:
"He’s a good starting pitcher who eats innings and is a safe bet to be a tick or two above average in terms of preventing runs. However, Zito’s not an ace. That he might be treated as one on the trade market is part of the reason why Oakland should deal him now."
Abreu is a star, and he will be paid like one for the next two or three years. He’ll get $28MM through 2007 with a $16MM club option for ’08 and a $2MM buyout. So the A’s would be on the hook for a ton of money, but they are getting a more valuable player. Plus, even the A’s would consider signing Abreu as a free agent if he was asking for two years, $30MM. That’s not a terrible price and the length is reasonable.
Gavin Floyd is kind of a throw-in to make Beane feel better about the salary he’d be taking on. Floyd had a very ugly 163 innings in 2005, and still hasn’t come near mastering Triple A. 28 solid Major League innings in 2004 probably gave him a reputation he didn’t deserve.
Thanks to the several emailers who passed this rumor along.
Prior For Abreu: Forget It
One of the hot rumors at the moment is that the Cubs "didn’t say no" when the Phillies asked for Mark Prior in return for Bobby Abreu. This Philadelphia Daily News article only fueled the fire.
Hopefully putting the rumor to bed, Bruce Levine quoted Jim Hendry recently on ESPN Radio 1000 as saying Prior for Abreu is not an option. According to Levine, Carlos Zambrano is off the table as well.
While the Cubs need a shakeup and Abreu is a star, dealing one of their young, cheap ace pitchers isn’t the solution. Prior had home run and walk problems in 2005. Add in some injury concerns, and his value may be at an all-time low. Given his career 10.5 K/9 mark over 613 innings, Prior still has the chance to take back his spot as one of the best pitchers in the league.
Zambrano actually is one of the best pitchers in the NL. The 24 year old has a 3.26 career ERA and has pitched 200 innings in each of his three full seasons. Here’s how his overall ranking in the NL for each of the last three seasons, according to Baseball Prospectus’s VORP statistic.
2003 – 11th
2004 – 4th
2005 – 10th
While Abreu should certainly bring a young pitcher in return, Hendry would be overpaying to include Prior or Zambrano. Given Abreu’s salary and age, Erik Bedard seems like a more appropriate bounty.
Is Bobby Abreu Clutch?
I noticed some people saying that Bobby Abreu isn’t clutch. I figured it would make sense to put some numbers behind it to see if it’s just a perception that caught on or if it’s true.
Reader Bill already weighed in with Abreu’s September batting averages in a different post, so I’ll begin by expanding on that to include Abreu’s full AVG/OBP/SLG lines in recent Septembers.
First, his career line: .303/.411/.512. Can’t complain about that.
September 2005: .250/.395/.396
September 2004: .326/.483/.500
September 2003: .308/.432/.407
September 2002: .366/.455/.591
OK, it looks like his power numbers were way down this season and in ’03 in September. But when you’re looking at a sample of 100 at-bats each year, and he has alternated between an excellent and subpar SLG, is it really statistically significant? I don’t think so. Plus, with OBPs like that, it’s not as if he tanked.
How about everyone’s favorite Close and Late stats? Close and Late refers to when the game is in the 7th inning or later and is a one run affair or tied.
Close and Late ’05: .298/.422/.571
Close and Late ’04: .255/.445/.412
Close and Late ’03: .318/.423/.420
Close and Late ’02: .303/.444/.495
First off, no one can complain that Abreu wasn’t clutch in 2005 overall. He had a two-year run where his power numbers were down in late game situations, but does that really make him "unclutch?" Maybe Abreu focused on drawing a walk or hitting a single instead of going for the fences. His OBPs were all above his career average.
Finally, let’s see where Abreu stands with runners in scoring position.
RISP 2005: .303/.444/.500
RISP 2004: .322/.432/.624
RISP 2003: .361/.473/.574
RISP 2002: .313/.441/.556
He’s consistently destroyed pitchers in every way with runners in scoring position.
Some analysts don’t believe clutch hitting even exists, and the inconsistencies in this one sample seem to support that. Regardless, there’s no clear conclusion that Bobby Abreu is "not clutch."
More Cardinals Rumblings
Trusted blogger Lboros has a new post over at Viva El Birdos that does a solid, thorough job of sifting through the rumors flying about in relation to the Cardinals. Especially with that infamous memo. The memo! The memo! You can check out our post from yesterday morning as a refresher.
The short version:
Walt Jocketty has been unusually uptight this offseason and has been keeping things close to the vest.
The Abreu to the Cards rumor is more than idle speculation; it seems some talks have taken place on that. Lboros doesn’t think the deal is a good fit economically or logically for the Cardinals, regardless.
Jason Marquis is as good as gone; Anthony Reyes is likely to stay.
Solid sources are saying the Cardinals are expected to sign A.J. Burnett soon, and lboros thinks that’s the most likely scenario.
Further Thoughts On Bobby Abreu
Amid the Bobby Abreu for Erik Bedard and Jay Gibbons trade rumor yesterday, I made a comment that Abreu was "strangely unpopular in Philadelphia." While I’ve read this in the papers and seen it on message boards, my comment doesn’t really do justice to Phillies fans. So I emailed Jason Weitzel of the Beer Leaguer Phillies Blog to get further insight on Abreu. Below are some excerpts.
Beer Leaguer visitors on Abreu:
Among Internet users who read my site and others, opinion is largely favorable. Most readers who check out blogs are familiar with the innovative ways teams are valuing talent, and few players in baseball are more deeply defined by numbers than Abreu. He’s the complete offensive package. He is easy to justify quantitatively.
Other Phillies fans on Abreu:
Among blue-collar fans that value hard work, grit and shining in big moments, Abreu stumbles. I’ve watched plenty of Abreu over the years and I don’t disagree with this take either. He disappeared in September, while others like J-Roll, Howard and Lofton stepped up and carried the club on their backs. I blame part of that on fatigue, which had reportedly caught up to him, but it’s not unusual for Abreu to disappear in September, or disappear in these types of games.
On Abreu trade rumors:
Word is the Phils have been shopping both Abreu and Burrell as a way to shake some of the longterm commitments. With Thome gone, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pat Gillick backed off. They need starting pitching and relief pitching badly, but dealing Abreu is not how they’re going to get it, at least not in this offseason. Burrell, Rowand and Abreu give them a powerhouse outfield, probably the best in the division, if not the entire NL.