Cubs’ Brandon Birdsell To Undergo Elbow Surgery
Cubs prospect Brandon Birdsell, one of the top young arms in the system, will undergo surgery on his right elbow this week, assistant general manager Jared Banner announced yesterday (link via Janie McCauley of the Associated Press). Banner didn’t provide specifics regarding the injury, noting only that the procedure will be performed by Dr. Keith Meister — one of the industry’s most prominent orthopedic surgeons — and that more information will be known following the procedure.
Banner made no mention of Birdsell’s ulnar collateral ligament, though that’s obviously the fear in situations like this. It’s relatively common with UCL injuries for medical experts to determine that the ligament needs repair but hold off on making the call between an internal brace and full replacement (i.e. Tommy John surgery) until the operation is underway and the surgeon can get a first-hand look at the extent of the damage. The obvious hope, of course, is that Birdsell is dealing with a less severe injury, but the team won’t divulge that information until after the operation is performed.
Regardless of the nature of the surgery, it’s a setback in the development of Birdsell, a former Texas Tech standout whom the Cubs selected with their fifth-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 6’2″, 240-pound righty put himself on the prospect map with a 2.77 ERA in 107 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A in his first professional season in 2023, and he followed up with 135 2/3 frames of 3.91 ERA ball split between Double-A and Triple-A last year. Along the way, he made notable improvements in both his strikeout and walk rates, finishing out the ’24 campaign at 23.5% and 5.4%, respectively. That 2024 season propelled him up the organization’s prospect rankings, landing him eighth at FanGraphs, ninth at MLB.com and 12th at Baseball America.
Birdsell opened the 2025 season on the injured list with an elbow issue but returned to the mound in mid-June and looked effective for much of the summer. The Cubs eased him back into things with two- and four-inning starts in the low minors before stretching him back out in Triple-A. Birdsell posted a 2.48 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in his first seven appearances before being rocked for six runs (three earned) across 4 2/3 innings on Aug. 7 in what will now go down as his final start of the 2025 season.
There’s little left to prove for Birdsell in the minors. He entered the year widely regarded as a nearly MLB-ready back-of-the-rotation arm with a reputation for filling up the strike zone. He’ll be Rule 5-eligible this offseason, presenting the Cubs with an interesting decision if his surgery will knock him out for most or all of the 2026 campaign.
Cubs Notes: Assad, Birdsell, Rotation
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to camp for all 30 clubs this week, but the Cubs started a little earlier than everyone else. That’s due to the fact that the Cubs and Dodgers are starting the regular season early, flying to Tokyo to play a couple of games there in mid-March.
Inevitably, the opening of camp leads to revelations of injuries that weren’t previously known to the public. Cubs manager Craig Counsell relayed a couple of those to reporters, including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Right-hander Javier Assad is dealing with some oblique soreness while fellow righty Brandon Birdsell is dealing with an issue in the back of his shoulder. Per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, Assad is getting some imaging today.
At this point, it’s unclear if either issue is serious, though the club’s rotation depth could suffer if one or both of these hurlers have to miss some time. On paper, Assad would be in the club’s Opening Day rotation. Last year, he made 29 starts and logged 147 innings, allowing 3.73 earned runs per nine. He was probably a bit lucky to allow so few runs, as his 80.3% strand rate was well above the 72.1% league average, while his 19.4% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate were both subpar. Still, his 4.64 FIP and 4.72 SIERA still point to him being a passable back-end guy.
As of right now, the rotation to start the season would include Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd in four spots. Assad and Colin Rea would be candidates for the back end. If Assad is healthy, Rea could wind up in a long reliever role, or he could hold down the number five spot if Assad needs some time on the shelf.
Birdsell is further down the depth chart. A fifth-round pick from 2022, he is not yet on the 40-man roster. But he finished his 2024 season with 12 Triple-A starts with a 4.26 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. He’ll likely be back in the Iowa rotation to start 2025 as a top depth option, alongside guys like Jordan Wicks, Cody Poteet and Cade Horton.
Adding to the club’s starting mix is seemingly still a possibility. The Cubs were recently connected to the rumors surrounding Dylan Cease of the Padres. They also still have a bit of wiggle room in terms of the competitive balance tax, assuming they would rather not pay it this year. RosterResource puts their current CBT number at $209MM, more than $30MM away from the $241MM base threshold.
Cease is going to make $13.75MM this year, so he could easily fit into that remaining space. There are also a few mid-rotation pitchers still available in free agency, such as Andrew Heaney, Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana and more. The club isn’t likely to rush out and make a panic move just because of a few spring injuries, but it’s an area they had their sights set on already. It’s possible that further developments that impact the overall group could increase the club’s desire to pivot to backup plans.