Cam Schlittler

Much has been made of the Yankees’ apparent offseason strategy of “running it back.” While retaining Trent Grisham and especially Cody Bellinger surely count as successes, some fans were hoping for more tangible improvements. Aaron Judge will be 34 in April, and there are only so many years left in his prime (at least as a perennial MVP candidate). The Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox have all upgraded their rosters, meaning the Yankees will have their work cut out for them in 2026.

One area with a range of potential outcomes is the rotation. The group performed quite well in 2025, placing eighth in the league with a combined 13.5 fWAR. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón were the biggest reasons for that success. Fried excelled in a career-high 195 1/3 innings, showcasing his signature control and groundball tendencies en route to a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting. Rodón matched Fried’s innings total in his best season as a Yankee, posting a 3.09 ERA with an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate and cutting down on home runs. Rookie Will Warren made 33 starts and showed promise, as did Cam Schlittler in a second-half callup.

The ceiling is clearly high, especially if Warren and Schlittler do well in their sophomore campaigns. Still, there are downside risks related to injuries, underperformance, and depth. Starting with injuries, Gerrit Cole will be back at some point after missing last year due to Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, he only pitched half a season in 2024 due to elbow inflammation. He is now 35 years old with his last full-season workload coming in 2023, when he won the AL Cy Young award.

Manager Aaron Boone said last week that Cole has “had a good rehab” with “no hiccups” (link via Manny Randhawa of MLB.com). It’s not a matter of whether he will perform well when he returns. The question is whether he will sustain his ace-level, pre-injury performance now that he is in his mid-30s and coming off of injury. There is also the matter of volume, as even a June return from Cole would leave several months’ worth of innings for other starters to cover.

Rodón is in a similar spot after undergoing surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He is more likely to avoid starting 2026 on the 60-day injured list than Cole, with Rodón aiming to return in late April or early May. He is two years younger than Cole, so he’s less of a risk to suddenly decline. The question with Rodón is whether he can repeat his 2025 performance. A look at his Statcast page offers reason for optimism, with his fastball, breaking, and offspeed run values all grading in the 91st percentile or better. That said, he was more of a mid-rotation starter in 2024, when he posted a 3.95 ERA and allowed 1.59 home runs per nine innings.  Both he and Cole are under contract through 2028.

As for the younger arms, a lot of the rotation’s success depends on improvement from Warren and Schlittler maintaining his performance over a larger sample. For Warren, that comes down to improving his secondary offerings. While his fastball graded out in the 95th percentile by run value, his breaking and offspeed pitches were points of struggle. His slider was his main breaking pitch, but Statcast considered it 10.6 runs below average. His curveball and changeup were both at least 4.6 runs below average. His 24.1% strikeout rate was impressive, but he’ll need to sharpen his secondary offerings and cut back on hard contact if he wants to become a true mid-rotation starter.

Schlittler was a revelation in 14 starts last year. He had a 2.96 ERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate in 73 innings during the regular season and turned in an all-time rookie performance in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox. His ceiling is arguably higher than Warren’s, although there are similar questions regarding his secondary offerings and control. Statcast took a negative view of his curveball and slider, which he only used a combined 17.3% of the time. Meanwhile, his 10.2% walk rate could use some improvement. None of that diminishes the value of his plus fastball, of course. Still, he’ll need to make adjustments in order to sustain last year’s performance.

Outside of those arms, the club has Luis Gil and newly-acquired Ryan Weathers on hand. Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2024 but only threw 57 innings over 11 starts last year due to a right lat strain. His 3.32 ERA was good on the surface, but his peripheral numbers – 4.94 xERA and 4.63 FIP – painted him about a run and a half higher. His struggles with control are well-known at this point, and he also suffered a 10.0% drop in strikeout rate in 2025.

Weathers has 86th-percentile fastball velocity, but he has only thrown 281 big-league innings since debuting in 2021. Last year, he was limited to eight starts and 38 1/3 innings due to left flexor and lat strains. The Yankees shelled out four prospects to acquire him, so they’ll give him a chance to harness his fastball while betting on better health. Otherwise, the team has Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn as depth options. Yarbrough did well enough last year, but neither option inspires much confidence if they need to cover significant innings. Meanwhile, Clarke Schmidt underwent UCL surgery in July, so he won’t be an option until the second half, if at all.

How do you think the Yankees’ rotation will fare in 2026? Be sure to let us know in the poll.

Photo courtesy of Rafael Suanes, Imagn Images