The Yankees’ Other Young Ace In The Making
If you weren’t familiar with Cam Schlittler before this season, I’m sure you are now. The 25-year-old owns an AL-leading 1.35 ERA across nine starts. The Yankees are 7-2 in his outings, and opposing batters are hitting .176 against the righty and his devastating three-fastball mix. With Tarik Skubal on the shelf, Schlittler has emerged as an early frontrunner to start for the AL All-Stars this summer in Philadelphia. Some might tell you he’s the Cy Young favorite, too. But Schlittler isn’t the only reason the Yankees’ starting staff has exceeded expectations in 2026.
Will Warren, 27 next month, has a 3.42 ERA through nine starts of his own. With 59 strikeouts, he’s tied with Schlittler for fourth-most in the American League. His 5-1 record also matches Schlittler’s, as does New York’s 7-2 record in his starts. Under the hood, the numbers are just as impressive. Warren ranks among the AL’s top 10 qualified arms in xERA and FIP, while his xFIP and SIERA put him into the league’s top five. The only AL pitchers ahead of him in all four metrics are Schlittler, Dylan Cease, and Jacob deGrom.
One thing all of those “ERA estimators” appreciate is the significance of strikeouts, walks, and their relationship to one another. Warren’s strikeout rate is up from 24.1% in 2025, his first full season, to 29.8% in 2026. His walk rate has dropped by nearly one third, from 9.1% to 6.1%. Accordingly, his 23.7% K-BB% (strikeout rate minus walk rate) is more than 10 percentage points higher than the league average for a starting pitcher. K-BB% is a stat that stabilizes relatively quickly. It’s also one of the strongest predictors of future run prevention. Warren still needs to prove he can pitch this well over a full season, but his much-improved K-BB% is a powerful indicator that his early success is more than smoke and mirrors. Schlittler is turning heads with a 24.8% K-BB% after 202 batters faced. As far as strikeouts and walks are concerned, Warren has been almost equally excellent in a similar-sized sample.
It isn’t hard to see that Warren has been pitching better than he was last year. It’s a little harder to understand how and why. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down, but he isn’t throwing substantially more pitches in the strike zone or generating more swings. His swing-and-miss rate is middle of the pack, while his chase rate is well below league average. Even more curiously, his strikeout and whiff rates are down on his sweeper, which was widely considered his bread and butter in his prospect days. When Warren put up a 4.44 ERA in 33 starts last season, many were quick to note that he did so despite opponents hitting .336 with a .569 slug against his supposed “best pitch.” Instead of being a weapon, it was the least effective sweeper in the game, with a run value of -10, per Baseball Savant. So, it would have made perfect sense to presume that Warren needed to harness his sweeper if he was going to take the next step.
It would have made perfect sense, and yet… the explanation for his success isn’t that simple. Warren throws his four-seam fastball, sinker, and sweeper each about one third of the time against right-handed batters. When he doesn’t have the platoon advantage, he also mixes in a changeup and a curveball to keep lefty batters on their toes. All five of those offerings have above-average (or better) raw stuff this year, according to models like Stuff+ and PitchingBot at FanGraphs.
However, most of his pitches had good stuff last year too. What Warren has really improved in 2026, according to those models, is his command, specifically on his four-seam, sweeper, and changeup. Indeed, a glance at his heat maps will confirm that he’s been hitting his spots with those pitches more frequently. He isn’t letting his four-seam fastball drift to the sides, he’s wasting fewer sweepers, and he’s punishing opposite-handed hitters with his changeup low and away. The righty might not be throwing more pitches in the zone, but he’s throwing pitches where he needs to throw them to earn more strikes.
Just as consequential as where Warren is throwing his pitches is when and where he’s throwing them in relation to one another. In other words, all five of his pitches work in tandem. His changeup works because it plays off his sinker. His sinker works because he pairs it with his four-seam. They all work because his sweeper gives him such a different look. His arsenal is more than the sum of its parts.
To that point, Stuff+ and PitchingBot give Warren strong scores for the stuff and location of each of his individual pitches, but his overall scores – scores that take into account physical pitch characteristics, pitch locations, and situational usage for his entire arsenal – are nothing short of elite. His 118 Pitching+ (a sister metric to Stuff+) ranks third among qualified arms across MLB, trailing only stuff god deGrom and stuff prodigy Jacob Misiorowski. Warren’s overall PitchingBot score is even better, leading all 79 qualified pitchers in the major leagues. It may be just one metric, but it’s a metric that puts him ahead of names like deGrom, Skubal, Skenes… and Schlittler. Pitching+ and PitchingBot aren’t stats you hear about every day, but they’re powerful tools for predicting rest-of-season runs allowed in smaller samples. When all is said and done, what matters is preventing runs and winning ballgames. The pitch models tell us that Warren has the skills to do exactly that.
Gerrit Cole has been out all season. Carlos Rodón only just returned. If Clarke Schmidt pitches at all this year, it won’t be until the latter half of the schedule. Luis Gil is hurt too, and even before he landed on the Triple-A injured list, he was pitching like something was wrong. Those four pitchers made up the Yankees’ rotation as recently as the 2024 World Series. Yet, even without meaningful contributions from any of them, New York’s starters lead the Junior Circuit in wins, xERA, and FanGraphs WAR. Their 3.14 ERA ranks second, and their 16.5% K-BB% ranks third. Not all of that is Warren’s doing – he’s had plenty of help from Schlittler, Max Fried, and Ryan Weathers – but it would be hard to overstate how much he has meant to his team so far in 2026. Cole, Fried, Rodón, and now Schlittler are much bigger names, but Warren is looking like another future ace for New York.
Photos courtesy of Maria Lysaker, Imagn Images.
Poll: How Will The Yankees’ Rotation Fare In 2026?
Much has been made of the Yankees’ apparent offseason strategy of “running it back.” While retaining Trent Grisham and especially Cody Bellinger surely count as successes, some fans were hoping for more tangible improvements. Aaron Judge will be 34 in April, and there are only so many years left in his prime (at least as a perennial MVP candidate). The Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox have all upgraded their rosters, meaning the Yankees will have their work cut out for them in 2026.
One area with a range of potential outcomes is the rotation. The group performed quite well in 2025, placing eighth in the league with a combined 13.5 fWAR. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón were the biggest reasons for that success. Fried excelled in a career-high 195 1/3 innings, showcasing his signature control and groundball tendencies en route to a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting. Rodón matched Fried’s innings total in his best season as a Yankee, posting a 3.09 ERA with an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate and cutting down on home runs. Rookie Will Warren made 33 starts and showed promise, as did Cam Schlittler in a second-half callup.
The ceiling is clearly high, especially if Warren and Schlittler do well in their sophomore campaigns. Still, there are downside risks related to injuries, underperformance, and depth. Starting with injuries, Gerrit Cole will be back at some point after missing last year due to Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, he only pitched half a season in 2024 due to elbow inflammation. He is now 35 years old with his last full-season workload coming in 2023, when he won the AL Cy Young award.
Manager Aaron Boone said last week that Cole has “had a good rehab” with “no hiccups” (link via Manny Randhawa of MLB.com). It’s not a matter of whether he will perform well when he returns. The question is whether he will sustain his ace-level, pre-injury performance now that he is in his mid-30s and coming off of injury. There is also the matter of volume, as even a June return from Cole would leave several months’ worth of innings for other starters to cover.
Rodón is in a similar spot after undergoing surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He is more likely to avoid starting 2026 on the 60-day injured list than Cole, with Rodón aiming to return in late April or early May. He is two years younger than Cole, so he’s less of a risk to suddenly decline. The question with Rodón is whether he can repeat his 2025 performance. A look at his Statcast page offers reason for optimism, with his fastball, breaking, and offspeed run values all grading in the 91st percentile or better. That said, he was more of a mid-rotation starter in 2024, when he posted a 3.95 ERA and allowed 1.59 home runs per nine innings. Both he and Cole are under contract through 2028.
As for the younger arms, a lot of the rotation’s success depends on improvement from Warren and Schlittler maintaining his performance over a larger sample. For Warren, that comes down to improving his secondary offerings. While his fastball graded out in the 95th percentile by run value, his breaking and offspeed pitches were points of struggle. His slider was his main breaking pitch, but Statcast considered it 10.6 runs below average. His curveball and changeup were both at least 4.6 runs below average. His 24.1% strikeout rate was impressive, but he’ll need to sharpen his secondary offerings and cut back on hard contact if he wants to become a true mid-rotation starter.
Schlittler was a revelation in 14 starts last year. He had a 2.96 ERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate in 73 innings during the regular season and turned in an all-time rookie performance in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox. His ceiling is arguably higher than Warren’s, although there are similar questions regarding his secondary offerings and control. Statcast took a negative view of his curveball and slider, which he only used a combined 17.3% of the time. Meanwhile, his 10.2% walk rate could use some improvement. None of that diminishes the value of his plus fastball, of course. Still, he’ll need to make adjustments in order to sustain last year’s performance.
Outside of those arms, the club has Luis Gil and newly-acquired Ryan Weathers on hand. Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2024 but only threw 57 innings over 11 starts last year due to a right lat strain. His 3.32 ERA was good on the surface, but his peripheral numbers – 4.94 xERA and 4.63 FIP – painted him about a run and a half higher. His struggles with control are well-known at this point, and he also suffered a 10.0% drop in strikeout rate in 2025.
Weathers has 86th-percentile fastball velocity, but he has only thrown 281 big-league innings since debuting in 2021. Last year, he was limited to eight starts and 38 1/3 innings due to left flexor and lat strains. The Yankees shelled out four prospects to acquire him, so they’ll give him a chance to harness his fastball while betting on better health. Otherwise, the team has Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn as depth options. Yarbrough did well enough last year, but neither option inspires much confidence if they need to cover significant innings. Meanwhile, Clarke Schmidt underwent UCL surgery in July, so he won’t be an option until the second half, if at all.
How do you think the Yankees’ rotation will fare in 2026? Be sure to let us know in the poll.
How Will The Yankees' Rotation Fare In 2026?
Photo courtesy of Rafael Suanes, Imagn Images
Carlos Carrasco Has Opt-Out In Yankees Deal This Weekend
Veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco can trigger an opt-out in his minor league deal with the Yankees on Saturday if he hasn’t been added to the 40-man roster by that point, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network. Triggering the out would give the Yanks 48 hours to add him to the roster or else allow him to become a free agent. Curry adds that Carrasco is “likely” to begin the year in the team’s rotation, so it seems they’re leaning toward adding him to the roster. They’d need to open a 40-man roster spot but could do so easily by transferring Gerrit Cole to the 60-day injured list.
Carrasco, 38 on Friday, signed a minor league deal with the Yankees back in early February. He’s posted solid results despite shaky command this spring, holding opponents to three runs in 11 innings and punching out 12 of the 46 men he’s faced (26.1%). Carrasco has also issued six walks and plunked three batters, however, so he perhaps hasn’t been quite as sharp as his 2.45 ERA might appear to indicate.
The veteran Carrasco was for a good while one of the more consistent arms in the sport. From 2014-18, he was a rock in the Cleveland rotation, rattling off 856 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with brilliant strikeout and walk rates alike. He’s had his share of success even since that five-year peak, but the year-over-year results have varied drastically. He pitched to a solid 3.97 ERA in 152 innings with the Mets as recently as 2022, but Carrasco has also logged an earned run average of 5.64 or higher in three of his past four seasons.
Entering camp, Carrasco looked to have little path to a rotation spot. He was the quintessential veteran depth piece, but injuries have ravaged the Yankees’ starting staff and now placed him in position to break camp in the fifth spot. Cole will miss the 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery. Rookie of the Year Luis Gil will miss most or all of the first half due to a lat strain. Clarke Schmidt is having his next spring start skipped because of shoulder soreness and is not a lock to be on the Opening Day roster. JT Brubaker suffered a trio of broken ribs early in camp when he was struck by a comeback line drive.
With nearly a full rotation’s worth of arms ailing, the Yankees are now lined up for Carlos Rodon, Max Fried and Marcus Stroman to take the top three spots in the rotation. If Schmidt is able to avoid an IL stint, he’d be in line for a fourth. The fifth starter race would come down to Carrasco and prospect Will Warren. While Warren has been terrific in camp this far (15 2/3 innings, 2.87 ERA, 16-to-3 K/BB ratio), handing him the fifth spot would likely mean allowing Carrasco to opt out and sign elsewhere, thus further compromising the team’s depth. Of course, if Schmidt winds up landing on the 15-day IL, then it’ll likely be a moot point, as both Carrasco and Warren would be ticketed for the starting rotation.
AL Central Notes: Warren, White Sox, Manfred, Caglianone
The Tigers had interest in right-hander Will Warren during their trade talks with the Yankees this past summer, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports. The two clubs reportedly had a provisional agreement involving Jack Flaherty relatively close to being completed before New York backed out due to concerns over Flaherty’s medical records, though it should be noted that Heyman didn’t directly say that Warren was part of whatever trade package the Yankees were prepared to send to Detroit. Flaherty instead was dealt to the Dodgers for two position players, one of whom (Trey Sweeney) ended up playing an important role in the Tigers’ surprising late-season surge to a wild card berth.
Ironically, Warren ended up making his MLB debut on the trade deadline day of July 30, and he posted a 10.32 ERA over his first 22 2/3 innings in the big leagues. He also had a 5.91 ERA over 109 2/3 innings at Triple-A, though his minor league numbers were a little skewed by a nightmarish four-start stretch in May. Scouts and evaluators generally view Warren as a back-end starter or perhaps a long reliever at the MLB level, and while the Yankees naturally want to keep pitching depth on hand, Warren could be a relatively expendable prospect in terms of future trade possibilities (with Detroit or any other teams).
More from around the AL Central…
- Jerry Reinsdorf’s apparent willingness to discuss selling the White Sox has led to increased speculation that the team could be moved to a new city, though MLB commissioner Rob Manfred downplayed that idea in a recent appearance on FS1’s “Breakfast Ball” show. (Hat tip to Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.) “Chicago is an anchor city for us. I think that the White Sox are in a difficult situation. I think the location of the stadium is tough, but I have confidence that things are going to work out in Chicago and that we’re going to continue to have two teams in Chicago,” Manfred said. This allusion to Reinsdorf’s desire to get a new ballpark built is another factor in the situation, and Van Schouwen hears that Reinsdorf “has grown increasingly skeptical” about the chances of civic and state officials signing off on a deal to built a new stadium for the White Sox within Chicago’s South Loop area. Of course, some gamesmanship could be at play here, Reinsdorf’s past threats to move the Sox to St. Petersburg in the late 1980’s helped get Guaranteed Rate Field built in the first place.
- Jac Caglianone‘s power bat as a first baseman at the University of Florida helped make him the sixth overall pick of the 2024 draft, but the Royals prospect hasn’t given up on the idea of being a two-way player. “I’m the type of person where I get super driven and I get fixated on things,” Caglianone told The Athletic’s Noah Furtado. “So if I have the opportunity to do it, I’m going to jump on it. I won’t really accept failure. I’ll keep pushing at it until it clicks.” A Tommy John surgery in 2021 got Caglianone more focused on hitting and perhaps directed him towards Florida instead of entering the 2021 draft as a high schooler, and while Caglianone still showed premium velocity as a college pitcher, control is the big concern. The Royals have thus far used him only as a first baseman and DH during his brief pro career (in high-A ball and in the Arizona Fall League), but the club hasn’t entirely closed the door on Caglianone as a pitcher. As K.C. director of player development Mitch Maier put it, Caglianone’s potential is “a rare opportunity that has to be thought through.”
Yankees To Activate Anthony Rizzo From 60-Day IL Tomorrow
The Yankees announced following today’s game against the Cardinals that they’ve optioned catcher/first baseman Ben Rice and right-hander Will Warren to the minor leagues. It appears likely that Rice’s demotion to the minors is related to the impending return of veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo from the 60-day Injured List, as Brendan Kuty of The Athletic was among those to report that the Yankees are “likely” to activate Rizzo from the IL tomorrow. The club will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster to accommodate Rizzo’s return.
An active roster move like optioning Rice wasn’t necessary to accommodate Rizzo, as rosters are set to expand from 26 to 28 as the calendar flips to September tomorrow. With that being said, the return of the 35-year-old from the injured list seemed all but guaranteed to wipe out the playing time that Rice has been afforded since Rizzo went down with a broken arm back in June. In 175 trips to the plate since then, the rookie has struggled at the plate with a slash line of just .175/.259/.356 (75 wRC+) capped off by a brutal month of August where he’s hit just .057/.171/.057 in 13 games.
Those numbers are worse than even the figures posted by Rizzo in what was a career-worst campaign prior to his injury. The veteran slugger struggled to a .223/.289/.341 slash line with a wRC+ of 80 in 70 games prior to his placement on the IL back in June, by far the worst offensive performance of he’s posted since a 49-game stint with the Padres during his rookie season back in 2011. The Yankees are surely hoping that the decorated veteran, who made three All-Star appearances and posted a 131 wRC+ in his decade-long run with the Cubs from 2012 to 2021, will be able to return to form down the stretch and post numbers closer to the .238/.337/.446 (116 wRC+) line he’s posted since the 2021 season when he first donned a Yankees uniform.
Looking ahead, New York holds a $17MM club option on Rizzo’s services for 2025. Barring an otherworldly performance from Rizzo down the stretch and in the postseason this year, it seems all but certain that option will be declined in favor of a $6MM buyout, allowing Rizzo to become a free agent for the third time in his career. Rizzo’s performance over the next month, now that his broken arm is healed and he’s more than a year removed from the concussion that derailed the latter half of his 2023 campaign, figures to be of great importance to his prospects on the open market this fall.
Also departing the Yankees’ roster alongside Rice is Warren, a rookie right-hander who made his fifth start with the club earlier today. Warren’s first stint in the big leagues ends with a 9.55 ERA in 21 2/3 innings of work, and the righty will return to Triple-A in hopes of sorting things out in an environment with less pressure. Warren’s departure leaves a vacant spot in the club’s rotation, but with a day off on Thursday the club won’t need a fifth starter again until September 10 against the Royals. Warren’s departure creates room for the Yankees to add two pitchers to the active roster tomorrow alongside Rizzo and a second hitter: one to replace Warren and one to occupy the expanded roster spot created tomorrow.
Yankees Place Luis Gil On Injured List
3:05pm: Manager Aaron Boone says that Gil’s back injury is minor and they hope to have him back after the 15-day minimum, per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic on X.
2:30pm: The Yankees announced today that right-hander Luis Gil has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a lower back strain. Fellow right Will Warren was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in a corresponding move.
Gil started last night’s game against the Guardians but lasted just three innings and 78 pitches before he was removed. The club later announced that he departed with low back tightness, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic on X. The club hasn’t provided any updates today about how long they expect Gil to be out, but it seems they expect him to miss at least a couple of weeks, based on this IL placement.
That will interrupt an excellent rookie season for the right-hander, as he has made 24 starts with a 3.39 earned run average. His 12.6% walk rate is on the high side but he’s been able to counteract that with a strong 27.5% strikeout rate.
Gil may have needed a breather at some point anyway, since he is already pushing into uncharted personal territory in terms of workload. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022, missing most of that season as well as 2023. Prior to that, his career high in terms of innings was 108 2/3 in 2021, between the majors and the minors.
Here in 2024, he’s already logged 124 2/3 frames. That means he’s well into personal-high territory, on the heels of two mostly lost seasons. Even though his results have been strong, the Yankees may have been pressed to think about lightening his load somehow, either by optioning him to the minors or transferring him to the bullpen.
The IL stint could perhaps act as that breather, as long as it’s not a terribly significant injury. If he just needs a few weeks on the shelf, perhaps that will allow him to recharge for the stretch run and the postseason.
In the meantime, the Yanks will be down another man in the rotation that’s missing a few guys. Gil will join Clarke Schmidt, JT Brubaker and Cody Poteet on the IL, though some of those guys could be back in the mix soon. Poteet began a rehab assignment last night and Schmidt is expected to start one on Friday, per Kirschner on X.
For now, the rotation consists of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman, with Warren presumably stepping in to replace Gil. Despite the Yankees having a strong record of 73-53 this year, they haven’t had amazing results out of that group. Stroman’s 3.82 ERA is the best of the bunch and he’s probably lucky to have that number. His 16.8% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate are all on pace to be the worst of his career. Cole, Rodón and Cortes each have ERAs of 4.15 or higher. Warren has an 8.59 ERA in his first three major league starts.
The IL placement of Gil has the potential to have ripple effects beyond the 2024 Yankees. He has been in the conversation for American League Rookie of the Year and this absence might push him back in the race. ROY voting now has impacts for clubs and players as certain top prospects can net their clubs an extra draft pick if they are promoted to the Opening Day roster and win the award, while other guys can earn themselves a full year of service time even if they haven’t been up all year.
Gil himself isn’t PPI eligible since he wasn’t a top prospect coming into the year but guys like Colton Cowser and Austin Wells are eligible for the prospect promotion incentive and perhaps now have a greater chance of netting their clubs a draft pick.
Yankees Designate Enyel De Los Santos For Assignment
The Yankees announced today that infielder Oswald Peraza and right-hander Will Warren have been recalled to the active roster. One spot was opened by infielder/outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. landing on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 13, with a left elbow sprain. That injury and Chisholm’s expected IL placement were both previously reported. The other roster spot was opened by right-hander Enyel De Los Santos being designated for assignment. Additionally, the Yanks added that righty Lou Trivino will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset.
It’s a very quick turnaround for De Los Santos, 28, who was just acquired prior to the deadline a couple of weeks ago. The Yankees sent outfielder Brandon Lockridge to the Padres in order to acquire De Los Santos and minor league pitcher Thomas Balboni.
It seems that the buyer’s remorse set in very quickly, as things didn’t go well for De Los Santos after swapping his Padre pinstripes for the Yankee variety. After the trade, he tossed 6 1/3 innings over five appearances, allowing 10 earned runs in that time. He struck out five opponents while walking three of them.
The Yankees were rained out on Friday and played a double-header on Saturday, meaning their five starters have each pitched in the past four days. They needed Warren to come up and make a spot start today, which required a corresponding move. The only member of their bullpen that can be optioned is Jake Cousins, who has a 2.25 ERA on the season. Rather than send Cousins down, they have decided to bump De Los Santos off the 40-man roster not too long after trading for him.
Since the deadline has now passed, the Yankees will have no choice but to put De Los Santos on waivers in the coming days. Although his results have clearly been poor since coming to the Bronx, it seems likely that some other club will look beyond that and put in a claim based on his previous work.
From the start of 2022 and up until the trade, the righty actually posted some strong numbers between the Guardians and Padres. He tossed 159 1/3 innings in that time with a 3.50 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate.
Meaningful roster upgrades are difficult to come by at this post-deadline part of the calendar, so a club looking for bullpen reinforcements will probably put in a claim. That might not even need to be a contending club, as De Los Santos is making just $1.16MM this year and can be retained via arbitration for two additional seasons.
Waiver priority goes in reverse order of the standings, so the teams with the worst records will have first dibs. Even a team out of contention might take a shot on De Los Santos given those two extra years of control. But if they all pass, some club in a playoff race could benefit with a fresh arm that has had some success in recent seasons, Yankee tenure notwithstanding.
Cutting bait on De Los Santos will cut into the club’s bullpen depth, but they are about to backfill some of that with Trivino. The righty underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and missed all of the 2023 season. He hit free agency and the Yanks re-signed him on a one-year deal with a $1.5MM guarantee and a $5MM club option for 2025, plus bonuses and escalators that kick in at 15 appearances this year.
Prior to this lengthy injury layoff, he put up some strong numbers. Most of that came with the Athletics, though he also came over to the Yankees at the 2022 deadline as part of the Frankie Montas trade. Overall, he has 284 2/3 innings under his belt with a 3.86 ERA. His 10.6% walk rate is a bit high but his 24.5% strikeout rate and 47.4% ground ball rate are both strong.
Yankees Scratch Gerrit Cole With Body Fatigue, To Select Will Warren
The Yankees scratched Gerrit Cole from tonight’s scheduled start against the Phillies due to general body fatigue. Well-regarded pitching prospect Will Warren is getting the call for a spot start in what’ll be his major league debut. The Yankees will need to select him onto the 40-man roster, which has two vacancies pending their deadline activity.
There’s no indication this is anything more than a day-to-day issue. Yet it’s at least worth monitoring after Cole missed the first half of the season with elbow inflammation. Cole has made seven starts since being reinstated in the middle of June. He owns an uncharacteristic 5.40 ERA thanks largely to nine home runs allowed.
If the Yankees are at all concerned about Cole’s health, it could impact their approach to the deadline over the next two hours. They’ve already been tied to starting pitchers, including to Jack Flaherty at the top of the market. There are rumblings the Yanks could even add an impact starter like Flaherty and look to flip Nestor Cortes.
Warren, 25, is a former eighth-round pick who has developed into one of New York’s top prospects. He ranks seventh among Yankees farmhands at Baseball America. Warren’s arsenal is headlined by his mid-90s fastball and potential plus slider. He has a shot to be a mid-rotation starter. The Southeastern Louisiana product has started 20 times in Scranton. His 6.11 earned run average is disappointing, but Warren has an impressive 27.1% strikeout rate against a manageable 8.2% walk percentage.
Yankees Name Luis Gil Fifth Starter; DJ LeMahieu To Start Season On IL
Yankees manager Aaron Boone announced to the club’s beat last night that right-hander Luis Gil will be the club’s fifth starter to open the season, with Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relaying video of his comments on X. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports today that right-hander Clayton Beeter has made the club, though Sherman adds it’s possible that a roster move in the coming days could lead to Beeter getting optioned (X links). Boone also says infielder DJ LeMahieu will start the season on the injured list, with Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News among those to relay the news.
A spot opened up at the back of the Yankee rotation with the recent injury to ace Gerrit Cole, who underwent various tests on his right elbow. Cole was recommended for non-surgical rehab for nerve inflammation and edema. Though it was surely good news that surgery wasn’t being recommended, the club would still need to figure out a plan to proceed without him for an undetermined amount of time, perhaps months.
Without Cole, four spots were taken by Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Clarke Schmidt, leaving one open for a camp battle. As time went on, it seemed to come down to Gil and prospect Will Warren, with Gil getting the gig yesterday. Shortly after Boone announced Gil got the final spot, Warren was reassigned to minor league camp.
Gil, 26 in June, had an encouraging major league debut late in the 2021 season, as he posted an earned run average of 3.07 in six starts. He struck out a strong 29.5% of batters faced, though he also gave out free passes at a 14.7% rate. He would have been looking to build on that in 2022 but unfortunately landed on the injured list after just one start and eventually required Tommy John surgery in May. That put him out of action for the remainder of that season and most of 2023 as well. He returned to official game action in the minors leagues late last year, logging four innings in September.
That will likely leave Gil with some kind of workload limit here in 2024, since he hardly pitched over the past two years. In 2021, he logged 29 1/3 innings in the majors and 79 1/3 in the minors for a combined total of 108 2/3, his highest in any season thus far. He had a 3.97 ERA in those minor league innings that year. The minor leagues were canceled in 2020, meaning he wasn’t able to pitch in any official capacity.
Taking all of that into consideration, Gil shouldn’t be counted on to suddenly shoulder 200 innings this year, but the Yanks will stick with him as long he’s in good form and will presumably make a decision about the workload later. He posted a 2.87 ERA this spring with a 37.7% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate. In January, it was reported that the Yankees were awarded a fourth option on Gil, meaning they can send him to the minors at some point down the road.
Warren, 25 in June, is one of the club’s best pitching prospects. He threw 129 innings last year between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.35 ERA, then had a 3.52 ERA here in spring action. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster, so it would have been a little bit trickier to pick him over Gil. But given his larger innings tally last year, he could be called upon later in the season if Gil needs to be shut down or if someone else gets hurt.
As for Beeter, 25, he’ll be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. He was just added to the club’s roster in November, to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He had a 3.62 ERA last year, over 131 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He struck out 28.8% of batters though had a concerning walk rate of 13.1%. He’ll break into the majors out of the bullpen, presumably providing the club some long relief innings alongside veteran Luke Weaver.
On the position player side of things, it was reported a week ago that LeMahieu was questionable for Opening Day after fouling a ball off his foot. It doesn’t seem as though it’s a terribly serious injury, but it’s enough to keep him from being available to start the season. Opening Day IL stints can be backdated by three days, so it’s possible he will just miss a week if he’s able to get over the issue in short order.
Though it may not be a long absence, it’s still not ideal for the 35-year-old to be dealing with an injury yet again. He dealt with quad and calf soreness last year and produced a roughly league average line of .243/.327/.390, wRC+ of 101. The Yanks would obviously love to have more, especially since LeMahieu hit .336/.386/.536 over 2019 and 2020. Boone said LeMahieu looked “more explosive” back in February, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, though he’s now once again hobbled by an unfortunate ailment.
In the meantime, Oswaldo Cabrera could step into the everyday third base role, which will leave open a bench role for someone like Jahmai Jones or Kevin Smith. Cabrera hit .247/.312/.429 in 2022 but then dropped to .211/.275/.299 last year, that latter line translating to a wRC+ of just 60. Smith isn’t on the 40-man roster but the Yanks could transfer Cole or Oswald Peraza to the 60-day injured list to open a spot. Peraza is going to be out of action for six to eight weeks due to a shoulder strain.
As clubs around the league cut down their rosters, there are plenty of guys getting cut loose who may pique the interest of the Yankees. As mentioned up top with Beeter, he could wind up getting optioned if the Yankees find a pitcher they like on waivers or someone entering free agency via a release or opt-out. The same could perhaps be true of their bench, as Cabrera steps in for LeMahieu.
AL East Notes: Holliday, Gil, Red Sox
The Orioles shocked the baseball world yesterday by reassigning top prospect Jackson Holliday to minor league camp, effectively ending his bid to make the Opening Day roster. The consensus #1 prospect in the entire sport, Holliday has taken the minors by storm since being selected first overall in the 2022 draft. After hitting .297/.489/.422 in 20 games down the stretch the year he was drafted between rookie ball and Single-A, Holliday tore through the minors in 2023 to advance all the way to the Triple-A level before the end of his first full season as a pro. In 125 games last year, Holliday slashed .323/.442/.499, including a strong .338/.421/.507 showing in 36 games at the Double-A level. The youngster continued to tear the cover off the ball this spring as well, slashing .311/.354/.600 across 15 games during camp.
GM Mike Elias today explained the club’s decision to start Holliday in the minor leagues after that incredible performance to reporters, including MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Among the reasons Elias listed for Holliday not breaking camp with the Orioles was his lack of experience against left-handed pitching. Holliday’s numbers against southpaws last year, while decent, were not at the same caliber as those he posted against right-handed pitching. While he crushed righties to a .331/.437/.551 slash line, his 124 trips to the plate against lefties last year saw him hit just .296/.387/.389. Elias also suggested that Holliday’s minimal experience at second base- where the club plans to play him in the majors- was another motivating factor behind Holliday’s demotion. The youngster has started primarily at shortstop throughout his professional career and has only 25 appearances at the keystone in 145 career minor league games.
Of course, those reasons for sending Holliday to the minors to open the year, however valid they may be, won’t outweigh the impact the move could have on Holliday’s future team control in the eyes of many. A player must be on the major league roster or injured list for at least 172 days of the 187-day season to earn a full year of service time. In other words, if Holliday spends at least 16 days in the minors this year, the Orioles could gain an additional year of team control over the up-and-coming star. Of course, if Holliday were to finish in the top two of AL Rookie of the Year voting this year, he would still be granted a full year of service time even if he spends less than 172 days in the majors this year. It’s also possible the club could reverse course in the early days of the season and call Holliday up in time for him to receive a full service year, in which case the club would receive a draft pick in the event that Holliday wins Rookie of the Year this season or finishes in the top 3 of AL MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons.
More from the AL East…
- The Yankees are “seriously considering” right-hander Luis Gil as their fifth starter to open the season, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman adds that Gil wouldn’t have any innings restrictions in such a scenario despite having 29 2/3 innings of work across the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and the subsequent rehab. With ace Gerrit Cole set to miss the early months of the season due to nerve inflammation in his elbow, the Yankees will need an additional starter to pair with Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, and Clarke Schmidt in the rotation. Barring an external addition, Sherman indicates that the fifth spot in the rotation is likely to come down to either Gil or Will Warren, a 24-year-old righty who posted a 3.35 ERA in 129 innings between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Gil is the more experienced hurler of the two, with 33 1/3 innings in the majors under his belt. Those seven starts in the big leagues came during the 2021 and 2022 seasons and saw Gil pitch to a solid 3.78 ERA with a 4.12 FIP. [UPDATE: Gil has indeed won the fifth starter’s job, Boone told the New York Post’s Greg Joyce and other reporters today.]
- Center field prospect Ceddanne Rafaela will break camp with the Red Sox to open the season, Alex Cora told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this afternoon. Rafaela has appeared likely to make the club in the aftermath of injuries suffered by both second baseman Vaughn Grissom and outfielder Rob Refsnyder this spring. The 23-year-old has experience both on the infield dirt and in the outfield, though he figures to see the bulk of his playing time in center field as part of an outfield mix that also contains Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida. Rafaela made his big league debut last season with a 28-game cup of coffee that saw him hit just .241/.281/.386 in 89 plate appearances, though he slashed a far more impressive .312/.370/.618 in 60 games at the Triple-A level last year.
- Sticking with the Red Sox, veteran catcher Roberto Perez won’t be opting out of his minor league deal with the club according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Perez, 35, has spent the majority of his career in Cleveland and is regarded as one of the finest defensive catchers in the game, though he’s slashed just .169/.268/.288 since the start of the 2020 season and was limited to just 5 games in the majors last year before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. Should the club stick with its current catching tandem of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong, that would leave Perez likely ticketed for Triple-A to open the season, where he’d serve as an excellent non-roster depth option for the Red Sox in the early part of the season. As an Article XX(B) free agent, Perez will have additional opportunities to opt-out of his deal with the club on May 1 and June 1 should he decide to test the open market later this season.