Beltran Will Reject Qualifying Offer; Wants 3-4 Years
Carlos Beltran is looking for a three- or four-year contract and will thus turn down the Cardinals' one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer, Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown reports. Rejecting the qualifying offer will likely mean the end of Beltran's tenure in St. Louis as the Cards aren't likely to meet Beltran's demands when they have younger (and cheaper) outfield options like star prospect Oscar Taveras.
Beltran said during the summer that he hoped to play three or four more seasons, so it makes sense that he would look for a contract that would cover the home stretch of his career and capitalize on his strong performance in both the regular season and postseason. Though Beltran turns 37 next April, there is enough demand for his services that he could find more than two years. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles have already been linked to Beltran this offseason and Brown reports that six teams have "varying degrees of interest" in the veteran slugger. Brown figures the Mets, Phillies and Rangers are also possible suitors, plus any other teams who miss out on Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo.
As MLBTR's Steve Adams noted in his Free Agent Profile of Beltran, players of Beltran's age rarely score contracts of three years or more, and predicted that Beltran would sign a two-year, $30MM deal. Enough big-market teams are connected to Beltran that a larger deal could be possible, though the draft pick compensation attached to Beltran once he turns down the qualifying offer will also turn some clubs off.
Rockies Notes: Tulo, Hudson, Beltran, Johnson
The Rockies only won 74 games in 2013 but senior VP of baseball operations Bill Geivett believes his club is close to contending. "We like our core group of guys. We feel like we have a good crew to build around. I know some people disagree, but we don't feel that we are that far away," Geivett tells Troy Renck of the Denver Post, though he noted that the Rockies need Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to be healthy to make this happen. Here's the latest out of Denver…
- Geivett again stressed that the Rockies aren't interested in trading Tulowitzki or Gonzalez. Renck agrees, saying "a dramatic shift would have to occur in their thinking this offseason for trade talks to get going" (Twitter link).
- That said, Renck believes the Cardinals will at least "make the call" to gauge interest in Tulowitzki. Renck notes that it would take several of St. Louis' top prospects to make such a trade plausible. Earlier today, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal proposed an Allen Craig/Shelby Miller/Trevor Rosenthal package plus a lesser prospect and Colorado paying some of the $130MM remaining on Tulowitzki's salary, though Rosenthal admitted that a Tulowitzki trade is a "longshot."
- The Rockies are interested in free agent starter Tim Hudson, Renck reports (via Twitter). This makes Colorado the ninth team known to have an interest in the righty and Renck says "roughly 15 teams" comprise Hudson's market.
- Carlos Beltran has been a Rockies target in the past and MLB.com's Thomas Harding wouldn't be surprised to see the team attempt to sign the veteran slugger this winter. Beltran would take over in right while Michael Cuddyer would move to first.
- Also from Harding, the Rockies are expected to inquire about Josh Johnson. It doesn't seem like Johnson would be a fit, as since the right-hander is looking for a one-year deal to rebuild his value, he isn't likely to take such a contract at Coors Field.
Martino On Granderson, Beltran, Mets, Yankees
Andy Martino shares some hot stove news in a pair of articles for the New York Daily News…
- Curtis Granderson has drawn "preliminary interest" from the Mets, two sources tell Martino, though the depth of that interest will depend on how Granderson's market develops. "When it comes to New York, this much is fair to say: [Granderson] is more likely to be a Met than a Yankee in 2014," Martino writes.
- Carlos Beltran "would love to come back to New York, but I think he’d like Boston, too,” a friend of the veteran slugger tells Martino. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have been rumored to be interested in Beltran's services.
- The Mets have considered Andre Ethier as a trade option since at least last December, while the Dodgers have been open to dealing the outfielder since at least summer of 2012, rival executives say. That timing is odd given that the Dodgers only signed Ethier to his current five-year, $85MM contract in June 2012. There is no chance, Martino writes, that the Mets would move Zack Wheeler or Noah Syndergaard for Ethier, though Martino speculates that the team could be more open to moving right-handed pitching prospect Rafael Montero.
- Kevin Youkilis "is 100% healthy" and recovered from back surgery, agent Joe Bick says.
- Joe Nathan is expected to draw strong interest this winter but agent Dave Pepe said he had "nothing to report" thus far about his client's free agency. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicts that Nathan will find a two-year, $26MM contract this offseason.
Red Sox Links: Beltran, Hanigan, Hanrahan, Rotation
Multiple reports indicate that the Red Sox are interested in Carlos Beltran, though the extent of that interest is somewhat up in the air. George A. King III of the New York Post reports that Boston is "aggressively" pursuing Beltran but are receiving early competition from the Yankees and Orioles. Elsewhere, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo tweets that the Red Sox do indeed have interest in the eight-time All-Star, but a team source tells him they haven't been very aggressive to this point. Here are some more BoSox items for your Friday morning…
- Red Sox assistant GM Mike Hazen appeared on WEEI's Hot Stove Show on Thursday to discuss David Ross and other internal catching options, how other teams may try to copy Boston's offseason strategy from last year and how the team could be more open to giving up their first round draft pick in order to sign a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent. WEEI.com's Alex Speier has a partial transcript of the interview.
- Another catching option could be Reds backstop Ryan Hanigan, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. Hanigan is expected to be shopped now that Cincinnati has signed Brayan Pena, and Hanigan's defense and on-base ability would certainly be of interest to the Red Sox.
- Joel Hanrahanspoke with WEEI.com's Rob Bradford and discussed how difficult it was to watch from home in October this season — the first time one of his teams had ever been to the playoffs: "…I didn’t want to take time away from the trainers who are trying to keep the guys on the field who are playing. I didn’t want to be in the way. It was tough for me, but it was a whole heck of a lot of fun watching at home and seeing the success they had." Hanrahan said he's received calls from multiple eams already to check in on his rehab and spoke highly of Boston's training staff and the organization as a whole. According to Bradford, Hanrahan is throwing from 120 feet and hopes to have a few bullpen sessions under his belt prior to the onset of Spring Training.
- The Sox may have six competent starters under contract for next season — Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Felix Doubront and Ryan Dempster — but GM Ben Cherington told MLB.com's Ian Browne that he doesn't envision trading one of them this winter.
- Barring a trade of Dempster or Peavy, WEEI.com's Alex Speier figures that the Red Sox will have just over $32MM to spend and still successfully avoid this year's $189MM luxury tax threshold. That number, theorizes Speier, could be the reason that the Red Sox couldn't afford to gamble on making qualifying offers to all three of Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Saltalmacchia, of course, was the odd man out and didn't receive a qualifying offer.
- In a separate piece, Speier provides an excellent breakdown of the CBA's calculation of average annual value for luxury tax purposes, explaining how Lester's AAV next season will jump to $9.37MM now that his option has been exercised.
MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post
NL Central Notes: Beltran, Samardzija, Burnett
Here's tonight's look around the NL Central..
- Cardinals skipper Mike Matheny says that another club has already made an offer to free agent outfielder Carlos Beltran, tweets Jim Bowden of SiriusXM. The veteran figures to garner a great deal of interest this winter and it looks like his interest in the Yankees is finally being reciprocated.
- In a chat with David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com (Twitter link), Cubs pitcher Jeff Samardzija explained that he is not in a rush to work out an extension. "I have two more years of arbitration so there is a lot of time to get something done," said Samardzija, who turns 29 in January.
- Pirates pitcher A.J. Burnett remains undecided between retirement or returning to pitch in 2014, agent Darek Braunecker tells Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). The Bucs opted against extending Burnett a one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer yesterday. The veteran pitched to a 3.30 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and a 56.2 percent ground-ball rate in 191 innings in his second season with the Pirates.
Carlos Beltran Receives Qualifying Offer
The Cardinals have extended a qualifying offer to right fielder Carlos Beltran, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). Should Beltran reject the qualifying offer, which is valued at one year and $14.1MM, the Cardinals will be eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick should he sign elsewhere.
Beltran saw a decline in his plate discipline, defense and offense from the right side of the dish in 2013, but he still slashed a robust .296/.339/.491 with 24 home runs in an even 600 plate appearances. In my free agent profile for Beltran last month, I predicted that he could sign a two-year, $30MM contract to cover his age 37-38 seasons. Beltran and the Yankees are rumored to have mutual interest.
You can keep track of Beltran and all of baseball's free agents this offseason by using MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker.
Free Agent Profile: Carlos Beltran
His mind is on the World Series right now, but within weeks, Carlos Beltran's focus will shift to the offseason. The 36-year-old will head into free agency for the third time in his career, this time sporting a .296/.339/.491 batting line with 24 homers in his walk season.
Strengths/Pros
Beltran is a dangerous hitter, plain and simple. Over the past eight seasons, he's averaged a 135 OPS+ and 31 homers per 162 games, and he posted a 128 OPS+ in 2013. Among qualified free agent position players, only Robinson Cano, Marlon Byrd and Shin-Soo Choo have a higher wRC+ than Beltran's 132 (and Byrd, of course, is no lock to repeat that feat). 
Based on those numbers, Beltran was somewhere between 28 and 32 percent better than a league-average hitter this season.
For someone with so much power, Beltran is actually pretty difficult to strike out. He whiffed in just 15 percent of his plate appearances in 2013 — a mark that was bested by only Nate McLouth and Jacoby Ellsbury among free agent outfielders (assuming, of course, that Coco Crisp's option is exercised).
Interested parties can land Beltran's strong production for a fraction of the price that Choo will command as a free agent or Hunter Pence commanded in his extension. The largest deal Beltran could realistically hope for would likely be for three years, and even that's a stretch, given his age. In that regard, the fact that he turns 37 next April is actually somewhat of a positive.
Beltran has a reputation for being injury prone, but he's played in at least 140 games in 12 of 15 seasons dating back to 2001. He's averaged 146 games over the past three years, quieting those who thought he was finished after playing in just 145 total games from 2009-10. A move to the American League, where he could DH occasionally, would likely keep him in the lineup even more often.
Beltran's camp can also point to his lifetime .337/.449/.724 postseason slash line and 16 homers in just 45 playoff games.
Weaknesses/Cons
The other side of the coin for Beltran's age is that committing multiple years to a player that's about to turn 37 is a risk, especially one who comes with Beltran's injury history. Players break down in their older age, and it's not as if Beltran is without signs of decline.
After walking in just over 13 percent of his plate appearances from 2008-09, Beltran's walk rate dipped to about 12 percent from 2010-11, then 10.5 percent in 2012 before plummeting to 6.3 percent in 2013. The resulting .339 OBP was his lowest mark since 2005. He also showed an uncharacteristic platoon split in 2013, hitting lefties at just a .252/.281/.448 clip.
Defensively, Beltran has graded out below average for several years now, but 2013 was particularly unsightly. Beltran's -18.7 UZR/150 was fourth-lowest among all qualified position players, and The Fielding Bible's assessment of -6 defensive runs saved, while an improvement, isn't much of an endorsement either.
Beltran is a candidate to receive a $14.1MM qualifying offer from the Cardinals, which could damage his market as well. Teams will like his overall offensive package, but there's enough risk in committing dollars and years to a 37-year-old with declining plate discipline and defensive skills that the loss of a first- or second-round pick may cause some teams to back off.
Personal
Carlos and his wife Jessica are prolific community activists. Beltran's passion for education led to the founding of the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy in his native Puerto Rico. The academy is a high school for the island's top baseball prospects and places an emphasis on teaching them English — an opportunity Beltran didn't have prior to being drafted. Beltran has been active within the New York and St. Louis communities as well, recently starting a scholarship fund in St. Louis that provides eight underprivileged Hispanic youths with college scholarships. On the field, he's seen as a leader by his teammates and enjoys offering advice on hitting and outfield positioning. Carlos and Jessica have two daughters and make their offseason home in Puerto Rico.
Market
The Cardinals have Oscar Taveras as the heir-apparent in right field, though they could put Taveras in center and attempt to retain Beltran as their right fielder. That move would push Jon Jay out of the picture and make him a trade candidate, as someone would likely still want him around at his projected $4.4MM salary.
While many teams in the National League will still show interest, an AL team would probably be willing to offer Beltran more money knowing that they could stash him at DH on at least a part-time basis. Beltran's already been connected to the Yankees, as there's reportedly mutual interest between the two parties. Beyond that, the Royals' black hole in right field could lead to interest in a reunion. The Rangers and Orioles are two more teams that have question marks at corner outfield spots as well as in their respective designated hitter roles. The Rays could use more offense, but he's likely to be too pricey for their budget. Plus, playing 90 games on artificial turf between Tropicana Field and the road trips to the Rogers Centre probably isn't in the best interest for an aging outfielder with a history of knee issues.
Expected Contract
Agent Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group could start out seeking three years for Beltran, given his strong offensive numbers. Lozano can pitch to AL teams that some extra time at DH will keep Beltran's bat in the lineup and could boost his homer total back over 30, but three-year deals for players of Beltran's age are few and far between. Raul Ibanez managed to land one from the Phillies, but that proved to be an ill-fated deal by its completion, and Beltran would certainly require more than the $10.5MM annual value that Ibanez received.
Beltran's two-year, $26MM contract with the Cards helped set the bar for aging veterans like Torii Hunter, Chase Utley and David Ortiz. I'd expect that he can sign a similar contract this time around, perhaps with a slight raise given his overall solid production in St. Louis. A two-year, $30MM contract would give Beltran nearly the same guarantee that Ibanez received over his three-year deal while minimizing the risk, in terms of contract length, for the signing team.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees Could Dole Out ~$300MM In Total Salary
The Yankees, as we all know, are working on a plan to keep their payroll below $189MM to reduce their luxury tax bill. However, that doesn't mean they'll be totally handcuffed this offseason. The front office is currently working on a plan to stay under budget and spent roughly $300MM in total, sources tell Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com.
The Yankees' initial main targets, besides re-signing Robinson Cano, are Masahiro Tanaka, Braves catcher Brian McCann, and Cardinals outfielder Carlos Beltran, according to sources. The Bombers believe they can add at least two top free agents this winter without breaking the bank.
A source estimates the Yankees are shedding $85MM-$90MM in payroll this winter, which includes the salaries of retiring players Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte as well as free agents Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Curtis Granderson. The Yankees have a strong interest in keeping Kuroda and would be open to Granderson if he accepted the one-year qualifying offer, but they aren't obligated to either player. Beyond that, Derek Jeter exercising his $9.5MM player option (down from $17MM last year) and Alex Rodriguez's suspension being upheld would also help the cause.
Cano and Tanaka appear to be the Bombers' top two targets. A source said the Yankees realize that Tanaka, while making baseball sense, would also demonstrate ownership's stated goal to reinvest the savings from falling beneath the $189MM threshold. Beltran, another Yanks target, reportedly pushed to sign with the Bombers during his previous two trips through free agency and is eager to find his way to the Bronx this winter.
Mutual Interest Between Beltran, Yankees Expected In Offseason
Carlos Beltran showed interest in the Yankees during his two previous trips through free agency, but there wasn't enough interest in 2005 or 2011 on the club's side. This year, however, the two sides could be a match as sources tell Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News that there is mutual interest.
Despite getting a "last-ditch discount proposal", the Yankees passed on Beltran following the 2004 season as they opted to stick with Bernie Williams in center field. After the 2011 season, the Bombers were scared off by Beltran's injury history and already had a more reasonable alternative in Nick Swisher thanks to his club-friendly option.
Multiple sources tell Feinsand the Yanks could be in the market for an outfielder this winter as they look to add some pop to a lineup that finished next-to-last in the American League in homers and Beltran would certainly fit the bill.
While left field and center field are likely spoken for with Alfonso Soriano and Brett Gardner, right field projects to be open with question marks about Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells. Curtis Granderson could change that situation if the Yankees decide to retain a familiar option as opposed to looking outside the organization.
Of course, Beltran could require a team to forfeit a draft pick if the Cardinals extend him the $14.1MM qualifying offer. The veteran hit .296/.339/.491 with 24 home runs this season on his way to his eighth All-Star selection.
Cafardo On Price, BoSox, Granderson, Loney, Dodgers
While David Price has resigned himself to being traded, the Rays appear to be trying to figure out ways to make their ace the focal point of their pitching staff for many years to come, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes, however, the Rays' front office realizes it could be a losing battle, so a trade is likely with nearly half of baseball rumored to be interested in the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. "It's a big name, a big-time pitcher," one National League GM told Cafardo. "Even if you feel you don't need that level of pitcher, you look into it because he's so special and such a game changer. You do more than kick the tires. You try to make something happen, and I think you'll see teams that don't even need him step up." Here's more from Cafardo's column:
- The Red Sox will likely trade one of their veteran starters to make room for their young arms. Cafardo suggests Jon Lester and Jake Peavy could be available while Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront are also vulnerable.
- Jacoby Ellsbury is a perfect fit for the Mariners and Carlos Beltran likewise for the Orioles.
- Curtis Granderson will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and there's a strong possibility he would take it because he could post his biggest numbers at Yankee Stadium.
- The Dodgers will make Andre Ethier and/or Matt Kemp available this winter. Kemp will come with injury concerns, but that shouldn't prevent a team from taking a chance on his talent.
- James Loney has rebuilt his value with a strong season in Tampa (.299/.348/.430 with a 2.1 oWAR in 158 games and 598 plate appearances). Loney could find a market with the Rangers, if the Rays don't re-sign the free agent first baseman.
- Reds pitching coach Bryan Price appears to be the front-runner to replace Dusty Baker as manager in Cincinnati while Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr is in a strong position to take over from Davey Johnson, unless ownership wants a bigger name as its new manager.