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Olney On Potential Non-Tenders And Bradley

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In today's blog post at ESPN.com, Buster Olney indicates that there is belief among general managers that the "financial restructuring that has been occurring across the landscape is about to hit the arbitration-level players like a tidal wave." He mentions underperforming, but well paid players like Garrett Atkins and Kelly Johnson are prime non-tender bait, especially since their clubs have replacements ready and it's unlikely they'll be able to trade them. Make sure you check out MLBTR's list of non-tender candidates.

Olney also talks about some bad contracts the Cubs could acquire in exchange for Milton Bradley, adding that this morning's Vernon Wells rumor "would be a stunner" if it happened. Some of the players he mentions as possible fits include Carlos Silva, Derek Lowe, Gary Matthews Jr. (who said he wants out of Anaheim), Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, Oliver Perez, and Dontrelle Willis, among others. Any other ideas?

Why Are So Many Pitchers Still Unsigned?

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We are nearing Memorial Day, and many pitchers whose resumes would normally have landed them at least a minor-league deal by now remain unsigned.

  • Pedro Martinez is still homeless. While the complication may be in part due to Pedro's salary demands, it is surprising that nobody has signed him. Yes, his ERA was an unsightly 5.61 in 2008, but his 2007 stint was far better-2.57 ERA in 28 innings. His 87 strikeouts against 44 walks in 109 innings also suggests a pitcher who can help a team on the back end of a rotation. Given that it is Pedro Martinez, there is upside well beyond that, of course.
  • Odalis Perez remains strangely unsigned after his even stranger signing that wasn't with Washington this spring. Perez turns 32 on June 7, and had a perfectly average 2008, with a 4.34 ERA in 159 2/3 innings. Obviously, those numbers could help any number of teams.
  • Paul Byrd did what he always does in 2008-posted an ERA in the mid 4s (4.60 to be exact), struck out around four per nine innings, and kept his team in the game. Yet Byrd has yet to sign with anyone, either.

The lack of movement on these pitchers can't be due to overwhelming performances by all the starters currently employed. After all, there's Jamie Moyer and his 8.15 ERA, Carlos Silva and his 8.48 ERA, Oliver Perez and his 9.97 ERA… plenty of others at sixes and sevens, from Scott Olsen to Scott Kazmir. (Even as I type this, Moyer is giving up another home run. No, really.)

My suspicion is that teams view Martinez, Perez or Byrd as band-aid solutions. And that would be fine, normally. After all, band-aids have a rich tradition of stopping people from bleeding.

But the trade market for pitchers has the most top targets it's had in years. The Padres are already 10 games out, and Jake Peavy will likely hit the market. If Cincinnati fades, Aaron Harang could be available. If Toronto falls back to earth- and the smart money still has them finishing fourth- Roy Halladay could be someone else's ace by August. And Cleveland's Cliff Lee will be a prominent target as well.

There are even second-tier options that can help teams now and in the future, from Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie to Seattle's Erik Bedard.  And in the current economic climate, teams that fall out of the race may have even greater incentive to shed salary as soon as possible.

So it may well be that for veteran free agents, the market will only pick up once the trade deadline has come and gone. And with so many targets out there, once the deadline deals are made July 31, there may not be any place for Martinez, Perez or Byrd to land.

Sherman’s Latest: Red Sox, Lowe, Manny

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a new blog post up.

  • The Red Sox would like to trade for a young star player; they’ve already attempted to acquire Mark Teixeira and Hanley Ramirez this offseason.  The Sox seem willing to discuss some very talented young players of their own (Clay Buchholz seems a bit more available).  Sherman speculates on all kinds of names that could make sense for Boston.
  • Derek Lowe is not keen on taking less money and the same salary as Carlos Silva.  He and Scott Boras will take some time to see if someone can beat the Mets’ three-year, $36MM offer.  Ken Rosenthal wrote in November that most executives consider the Silva contract an aberration.
  • Sherman finds many reasons Manny Ramirez could make sense for the Giants.  He notes that Giants special assistant J.T. Snow can give the team the inside scoop on what it was like to be teammates with Manny.
  • The Cubs would’ve liked to send Jason Marquis home to New York (the Mets), but the Mets are addressing their needs one at a time and aren’t looking at the fifth starter role yet.  Sherman says the Rockies have long been fans of Marquis and like his bat.  He could accumulate 80 plate appearances, I suppose.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Johnson, Peavy, Dempster

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Here’s a look at the latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

  • It doesn’t seem likely that Randy Johnson re-signs with the Diamondbacks, though Johnson is holding out filing for free agency until the possibility is exhausted.  The D’Backs hope he will take a significant hometown discount; they have roughly $10MM to spend for Johnson and a second baseman.  If a Mark Loretta type takes $2MM, will Johnson take $8MM after earning $15.1MM for a fine ’08 season?
  • The Braves are frustrated with the progress on the Jake Peavy talks, and will explore other options (especially once the free agent market opens Friday).  Rosenthal says the Padres sent revised proposals to the Cubs and Braves yesterday, but those teams intend to stick with their offers.  Will the Padres crack and make a deal before Friday?
  • Rosenthal criticizes the Padres for the classless farewell to Trevor Hoffman.  They pulled their reduced offer, and didn’t agree to the meeting with ownership he requested.
  • Suddenly there may be more solid free agent closers than teams seeking one.  The Mets have their pick.  To me this is a sign that K-Rod will fall short of five years, $75MM.
  • Rosenthal believes Kevin Gregg is next up on the trading block for the Marlins, with Jeremy Hermida another possibility.
  • Casey Blake doesn’t have any geographic leanings regarding his next destination.  His agent feels a three-year deal is reasonable.  The Twins and Indians are among seven teams eyeing Blake.
  • The Cubs offered Ryan Dempster something in the range of Kyle Lohse’s four years, $41MM.  Teams don’t like to use the Carlos Silva deal as a benchmark, because it was such a clear mistake.

Perrotto’s Latest: Reds, Dempster, Silva, Lugo

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John Perrotto’s Every Given Sunday column is up over at Baseball Prospectus. For those without a BP subscription, here’s the highlights:

  • Perrotto believes that Reds owner Bob Castellini will give Walt Jocketty the go-ahead to dive into the free agent market this season in an attempt to contend in 2009. The Reds like their young core, and feel a solid bat or two can help them contend in NL Central immediately.
  • Jed Lowrie’s play since taking over for the injured Julio Lugo has convinced the Red Sox that he can be the everyday shortstop. They’ll look to move Lugo (and his contract) this offseason.
  • There’s been a lot of talk about teams looking for corner outfield help, but don’t expect the Tigers to jump into that category. They’re convinced that rookie Matt Joyce can be their everyday left fielder next season. Joyce already has 12 home runs this season in just 183 ABs.
  • Despite a great season, the Cubs may be hesistant to re-sign Ryan Dempster to a long-term deal because they already have Rich Harden, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis signed for 2009.
  • I apologize in advance to Mets fans for what I’m about to write: Perrotto feels that the Mets could make a push to trade for Carlos Silva in the offseason, in the hope that a reunion with his close friend and former teammate Johan Santana can revitalize him.
  • The Pirates are almost certain to trade Jack Wilson before the 2009 season begins.
  • Another name for teams seeking starting pitching: The Marlins are likely to trade Scott Olsen this offseason to help keep their payroll down.

Odds and Ends: Elias, Izzy, Silva, Colletti

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Linkage for Wednesday…

  • Eddie Bajek over at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has successfully reverse-engineered the Elias Type A/Type B formula.  Today he assigns statuses to the American League catchers.  Jason Varitek clings to Type A, while Ivan Rodriguez has slipped to Type B.  Read more about how free agent compensation works here.
  • Jason Isringhausen’s season, and maybe his career, is over due to a torn flexor tendon in his elbow.
  • J.C. Bradbury puts on his GM hat for the Braves.  Rather than plug in free agent signings, he’d sell off most of the infield.
  • MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone extinguishes a Carlos Silva rumor.
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney grades the deadline deals.  He has Ken Griffey Jr., Kyle Farnsworth, and Damaso Marte bringing up the rear.
  • Tim Brown explains that Ned Colletti’s job is safe.
  • Johnny Damon hopes A.J. Burnett opts out of his deal.  Does he just want Burnett out of the league, or is he hoping the righty joins the Yanks’ rotation next year?
  • Twins reliever Brian Bass may become a free agent, if he refuses a Triple A assignment.

Neal On Garza Trade

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I recently named La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune as Rumor Royalty for the Twins.  He answered a few questions for MLBTR.

MLBTR: Given the loss of Carlos Silva and probable trade of Santana, was it wise for the Twins to send Matt Garza to the Rays?

Neal: The Twins needed to address their offense. They were deficient last season at third base, left field and, on the days Joe Mauer wasn’t available, designated hitter. Scouts from other organizations keep talking about Delmon Young’s 40-homer potential, and it was nice to hear Brendan Harris say, "everyone has to pull their weight at the dish," on the day of the trade. I’ve covered this team for 10 years and have seen a lot of bad offense.

You can’t blame the Twins for not re-signing Silva, but you wonder why they didn’t trade him during the season when the Phillies and other teams were interested.

Dutton On Royals’ Free Agent Starter Search

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I recently named the Kansas City Star’s Bob Dutton as Rumor Royalty for the Royals.  He was kind enough to answer a few questions for the site.

MLBTR: It seems pretty clear the Royals are going to sign a veteran starter.  They’ve been linked to Bartolo Colon, Jon Lieber, Kris Benson, and others who have signed elsewhere.  Who do you see as the best fit for this team?

Dutton: The guy they really wanted was Hiroki Kuroda, and I’m pretty sure they tendered the top bid before he signed with the Dodgers. They liked Carlos Silva but not at his asking price. That leaves, primarily, guys who are trying to recover from major injuries. In short, guys who really aren’t good fits for anyone.

Even so, I think the Royals will continue to try to sign one. I believe Colon is their top choice, but he’s asking for $8-9 million and is looking for a multi-year deal. I think he’s kidding himself. Maybe someone will bite, but I’ll be real surprised if the Royals do.

The Royals are like most every other team looking at these guys: they’re willing to build in lots of performance bonuses, but they’ll want to protect them by insisting on a low guarantee. What they can offer that others can’t, they believe, is the likelihood of greater patience.

These guys all need to pitch to rebuild their careers, and they’re likely to have some rough stretches. The Royals would probably be willing to stick with them longer than most other clubs. They also play in a fairly big ballpark, which is forgiving to fly-ball pitchers, and have pretty good infield defense to benefit ground-ball pitchers.

Carlos Silva Signs With Mariners

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UPDATE, 12-20-07 at 3:18pm: The bar is raised higher than we thought – four years, $48MM according to Rosenthal.  This is the new price of a big league innings eater.  The Mariners remain interested in Erik Bedard and Johan Santana.

UPDATE, 12-19-07 at 7:03pm: MLB.com’s Jim Street is reporting via a source that the Silva deal is done.  He agrees with Rosenthal’s original figure of four years, $44MM.  Remember a year ago, when the Twins weren’t sure whether to exercise his $4MM option?

UPDATE, 12-19-07 at 3:08pm: John Hickey of the Seattle PI expects Silva to be introduced to Seattle on Thursday.

UPDATE, 12-19-07 at 11:11am: The AP is reporting that the Ms are "closing in on a deal" with Silva.

FROM 12-18-07 at 1:59pm:

A scoop from Ken Rosenthal – the Mariners are in "serious negotiations" with Carlos Silva for a deal worth at least four years, $44MM.  It appears that talks for Erik Bedard would not be affected by this signing. 

Rosenthal notes that $44MM or more would represent the bar for Silva’s tier of starters being moved slightly up.  That is to be expected; some have speculated it might take more like $12MM annually to get Silva.  Silva may not be anything special, but he’s shown the ability to eat American League innings.  Those guys don’t grow on trees.

By the way, Charley Walters says the Royals put out a three-year, $30MM offer to Silva.

Phillies, Mets Made Offers To Lohse?

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UPDATE, 12-19-07 at 11:14am: Todd Zolecki says there’s nothing to the report that the Phils made a four-year offer to Lohse.  So, Zolecki and Davidoff do not agree with Tim Brown.

UPDATE, 12-19-07 at 9:24am: Ken Davidoff wrote this morning that the Mets "do not seem particularly interested" in Lohse, Carlos Silva, or Livan Hernandez at the current prices.

FROM 12-17-07 at 1:58pm:

Yahoo’s Tim Brown indicates that the Mets and Phillies both have offers out to free agent starter Kyle Lohse, though it’s not the lead of his story (hat tip to MetsBlog).

There hasn’t been a ton of buzz around Lohse yet.  It seems that other aspects of the pitching market may have to settle first.  Lohse could be a Plan B for the Mariners.  He could be an option for St. Louis as well.  It’s been said that Scott Boras, Lohse’s agent, may try to get five years for him.  As Jerry Crasnick says, Boras is "willing to wait for teams to get desperate."  You can check out Boras’ spin on Lohse here.

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