Failed Trades
Let’s take a look at some deals that almost happened yesterday.
Kyle Farnsworth for Bob Wickman. This would’ve been fun, reunions with former teams for both players. However, the Braves wanted the Yankees to pick up all of Farnsworth’s salary, apparently. Brian Cashman didn’t want to make him go away that badly, and Wickman would probably be a nonfactor back in the AL.
Mariners acquire Mark Loretta. Eh. Let’s not overstate the abilities of Loretta. It sounds like Tim Purpura wanted some kind of legitimate prospect for him.
Rockies send Jeff Baker and others to Tampa Bay for Dan Wheeler. We can’t really evaluate this one without knowing who else would’ve been involved. And the Rays don’t really have a place to play Baker; they’re already squeezed finding playing time for Jonny Gomes. If Rocco Baldelli ever gets healthy they’ll really have a pickle. I mentioned in a recent interview at D-Rays Bay – Wheeler would probably be one of the ten best relievers available if he was a free agent after the season. The Rays can pump up his value and get a promising young pitcher next year, as the Royals did with Octavio Dotel.
Brewers send Tony Gwynn Jr., Zach Jackson, and another minor league for Eric Gagne. This could’ve been the difference-maker that Scott Linebrink ain’t in a tight NL Central race. But it doesn’t seem like Doug Melvin got a chance to counter the Red Sox offer, so you can’t really fault him.
Red Sox send Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen to White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Well, there has to be some statistical way to evaluate whether this pair beats two draft picks. You’d have to know the attrition rates of first/second rounders, and get some scouts on Pena and Hansen to see if they can ever reach their potential. If I was the Kenny Williams I probably would’ve made the deal. I think Pena gets docked in value from where he was two years ago, but still has pretty much the same upside if you manage him right. Who knows, maybe Williams will go after Pena again this winter.
Could D-Rays Flip Dan Wheeler?
Keith Law raises a good point in his blog post today – the Devil Rays might be able to spin Dan Wheeler for a younger, cheaper player. Law thinks it’s very likely that Andrew Friedman and Co. will aggressively shop Wheeler in the next two days. They’ve managed to spin Ty Wigginton into a more scarce commodity with higher demand.
For example: if Octavio Dotel is worthy of a discussion about Dodgers’ shortstop Chin-Ling Hu, does Wheeler fall within the same realm? If not, does controlling him through 2008 close the gap? With Reid Brignac struggling in Double A overall, why not attempt to add another shortstop? Or if Brignac succeeds (his bat has come alive this month), the Rays could move Hu to second base. Evan Longoria at third base would make Akinori Iwamura expendable.
Another option would be to target Seattle’s Jeff Clement, though I’d imagine Bill Bavasi would want more than just Wheeler. Carlos Pena would be a nice fit.
The Rockies could re-engage talks to get Wheeler, perhaps offering up one of their young flamethrowers or a guy like Jeff Baker.
Astros Trade Wheeler To Devil Rays For Wigginton
UPDATE: Wigginton will be used as the primary third baseman; you have to expert Morgan Ensberg to be gone soon.
We expected both players to be traded, but not for each other. Today, the Astros traded 29 year-old reliever Dan Wheeler to the Devil Rays for 29 year-old supersub Ty Wigginton. By my count, Wheeler reaches free agency after the 2008 season and Wiggy after 2009.
Looking at the two most important metrics, strikeout and walk rate, Wheeler should return to form for Tampa Bay. His strikeout rate is up; his walks down. Wheeler does not allow many baserunners. Perhaps the reunion with former Astros pitching coach Jim Hickey will help Wheeler curb his gopheritis. Should the Rays trade Al Reyes, or perhaps even if they don’t, Wheeler is a strong candidate to assume closing duties for the team.
I’m seeing a lot of folks panning Tim Purpura for getting Wigginton for Wheeler. Personally I don’t think it’s too bad. The Astros will have holes at second and third base next year, and Wigginton can play either position based on which spot the Astros can fill otherwise. I’d like to see him at second base, where his bat would be above average. Could Purpura have done better, given the strong demand for relievers? If it was the Wheeler of years past, sure. But he has a 5.07 ERA this year.
Yankees Focused On Gagne, Wheeler, Qualls
It seems highly likely that the Yankees will make a move to upgrade their bullpen before the Tuesday trade deadline. They appear to have three main targets.
Kat O’Brien of Newsday says the Yanks have had serious discussions with Texas regarding Eric Gagne. Though Gagne wants to close, remember that he can be traded to New York without his consent. A Rivera-Gagne combo would essentially turn every game into seven innings. O’Brien names righthanders Ian Kennedy and Jeff Marquez as two pitchers the Rangers might be after. Kennedy is definitely more highly regarded. The Rangers also like Melky Cabrera but the Yankees are resisting.
Meanwhile, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News tells us that the Yankees have "narrowed their sights" to Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls of the Astros. The Astros control Wheeler through 2009 and Qualls through 2010, so the asking price will be significant. Jayson Stark says Houston is looking for a young MLB-ready position player; Cabrera seems to fit the bill.
Another Yankee-related note from O’Brien’s article – the Yankees are not pursuing Ty Wigginton anymore. Other writers do not agree. Dan Graziano indicates that Wiggy is still in play and the Yankees might try get Al Reyes added to the deal as well. Peter Abraham talked to an AL exec who expects the Yanks to get Wigginton. Graziano adds that the Yankees have had recent discussions about Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Wheeler, Izzy
Ken Rosenthal posted a new column last night, and has updated it very recently. I’ve already spoken about the Teixeira stuff, but there’s other good material in there too.
- Some of the wilder speculation out there has been that the Twins might trade Torii Hunter or Johan Santana if they decide they’re out of it. Various Baseball Prospectus reports put the Twins’ playoff chances between 5-10%. Rosenthal debunks the idea that Minnesota would shop Hunter without first making him an offer, and keeping Santana for at least 2008 makes sense. Plus, Santana has a no-trade clause.
- Rosenthal does have some Twins for us who might be traded: Luis Castillo and Carlos Silva. Castillo has already been connected to the Mets in rumors, though Silva is a new one. One could definitely envision Silva’s style working in the National League (I know, I say that a lot). There was a recent Silva to Atlanta rumor, though Silva’s agent seems to have debunked it.
- Rosenthal says Dontrelle Willis is not available. Perhaps he and Tim Brown will engage in fisticuffs over this disagreement.
- The Diamondbacks have kicked the tires on Adam Dunn. He might make sense as a rental – the D’Backs playoff changes sit between 16-27%, worth fighting for. No doubt they’ve got a stable of young players to offer.
- Rosenthal says the Astros have yet to receive interest on the Lidge/Wheeler/Qualls troika, while Jayson Stark said yesterday that the Astros hadn’t opened shop on them. Thunderdome match #2, Rosenthal vs. Stark. Assuming Ken survives Tim Brown. Anyway, word is that the Rockies have their eye on Wheeler.
- Parties interested in Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs. This gels with Dan Graziano’s findings. Of course, trading a player like Greinke requires an equally talented youngster in return.
- The Royals may not be able to do better than Cleveland’s Ben Francisco as a bounty for Octavio Dotel. More on him in a separate post.
- Trades of Joe Blanton and Huston Street are "highly unlikely." So you’re saying there’s a chance?
- The chances of the Cardinals trading Jason Isringhausen are described as "remote." The Cards would have a hard time replacing him next year; he’s got a reasonable $8MM option. He also has no-trade protection, so he’d probably want a better extension if he was to accept a trade.
Mariners Watching Starters
UPDATE: Hickey writes that the Mariners have also scouted Kyle Lohse, Matt Morris, Jason Johnson (thought he went to Japan), and Octavio Dotel. However, a deal seems unlikely because none of those players are worth top Mariner prospects.
According to Jim Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Mariners have been scouting all kinds of available and not-so-available starters lately.
- The Mariners have been scouting the White Sox "religiously" lately. If they saw Javier Vazquez beat the Tigers on Tuesday, they came away impressed. (However, Vazquez can and probably would veto a trade to the AL or NL West). They were on hand to watch Jose Contreras tonight; the Tigers had batting practice with him and his ERA is up to 6.22. Did you hear that? That was the sound of Contreras’ remaining ounce of trade value evaporating.
- As you know, the Ms watched Dontrelle Willis on Monday. Compared to Contreras, Willis pitched well – four earned runs, nearly seven innings.
- The Ms also had a scout on hand to see Livan Hernandez twirl a gem over the Marlins on Tuesday. Hey, at least he takes the ball every fifth day. That has to be worth something.
- Hickey says Seattle has also been monitoring the Astros, perhaps in hope of acquiring Dan Wheeler or Chad Qualls. He speculates that Wandy Rodriguez would be a coup for the Mariners. Wand-Rod has thrown up stinkers in his last two outings but tossed a complete game shutout over the Mets in the game prior. He’s inconsistent like that. The Astros’ #2 starter for 2008 wouldn’t come cheap.
Rosenthal On Teixeira, Dunn
I neglected to mention a Ken Rosenthal article from yesterday, chock full of rumory goodness as always.
- Rosenthal believes the Yankees need a backup plan in case they are not able to retain Alex Rodriguez. Wilson Betemit definitely makes sense in that he’d be useful even if they do keep A-Rod. Rosenthal basically names every third baseman you can think of. The most likely option, to me, is to simply sign Mike Lowell as a free agent. Would he switch sides? Perhaps, if the Red Sox don’t make an offer or try to lowball him.
- The Braves apparently won’t give up Yunel Escobar or Jarrod Saltalamacchia to get Mark Teixeira. Neither of ’em. No doubt John Schuerholz will spend the next ten days trying to get Jon Daniels to settle for less.
- The Reds have a "co-Dunn-drum," as Rosenthal puts it. Now that’s good stuff. The basic codunndrum here is that no team that can afford Adam Dunn wants him. Rosenthal likes the Tigers as a dark horse. I know Dunn isn’t much with the glove, but I’m surprised the market isn’t stronger for him right now.
- Dan Wheeler is more likely than Chad Qualls to be moved, because he’s closer to free agency (after 2008).
- Rosenthal believes the Royals could not even acquire a Tony Abreu from the Dodgers for Octavio Dotel. Previously it had been said that the Dayton Moore was asking for Matt Kemp or James Loney. And Duke Snider plus Sandy Koufax.
- Bronson Arroyo does not appear to be available. Jose Contreras or Matt Morris: which is the lesser of two evils?
McAdam On Red Sox Trade Possibilities
Yesterday, Sean McAdam of The Providence Journal posted an article discussing trade possibilities for the Red Sox. Let’s discuss.
- It seems that the Red Sox will add a bullpen arm despite the fine work of Manny Delcarmen. Apparently they want someone with experience. Eric Gagne doesn’t seem likely, nor does Brad Lidge. Instead, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, and maybe Salomon Torres or Scott Linebrink could be acquired. The focus is said to be on the Houston relievers. Wheeler seems like a solid buy-low option. You can add Octavio Dotel to the radar as well. And let’s throw Brian Fuentes into the mix. UPDATE: Today, McAdam added Damaso Marte as a reliever the Red Sox like. He says the price for Torres is "way too high" at present. And according to the Boston Globe, Drayton McLane will not even consider moving Lidge.
- The Sox would get involved on a top-flight starter like Roy Oswalt or Dontrelle Willis. Calling Willis "top-flight" is a stretch, but that’s what McAdam said. They also like Jon Garland, if they can pry him loose for a reasonable price. Other available starters don’t seem markedly better than internal options.
- The Royals would love to pawn Reggie Sanders off, but the Red Sox don’t have interest. Instead, they could reacquire Kevin Millar or even go after Jermaine Dye. Is Dye really a perfect fit, though? Wouldn’t his acquisition make he and J.D. Drew part-time players? That wouldn’t be good for the clubhouse. UPDATE: McAdam says today that this playing time issue will indeed thwart a trade. On the Millar front, the Boston Globe debunks that rumor on the basis that the Sox want someone who can play center field.
- Speaking of people who can play center field, the Boston Herald mentions Randy Winn and Dave Roberts as possibilities. The fans would love a Roberts acquisition, I imagine.
- The trade Mike Lowell/acquire Mark Teixeira scenario is highly unlikely.
- The Boston Globe is saying that the Red Sox are "actively shopping" Wily Mo Pena. I discussed Wily Mo in a post yesterday. The Boston Herald today said that he might be the trading chip for a deal with Houston.
Latest From Gammons
The man himself, Peter Gammons, had a blog posting on Saturday that I neglected to mention here.
- Gammons mentions some suitors for Mark Buehrle: the Mets, Cardinals, and Mariners. He draws the Jermaine Dye/Padres connection we have seen in the past.
- Gammons believes the Astros will move one of Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, or Chad Qualls. However, that was written before Lidge hit the DL for a strained oblique. Houston would also love to move Morgan Ensberg, but that’s nothing new.
- The Dodgers are looking for a corner infield slugger, but aren’t interested in Troy Glaus or Scott Rolen. Adam Dunn isn’t in the Dodgers’ plans, either. Dunn’s defensive limitations really seem to be hindering a deal. If they are going to give up multiple young future stars, it’s going to take Mark Teixeira. In other words, they’d go all-in.
- Bill Stoneman is "cautiously looking for a bat." Cautious is the name of the game with Stoneman. It’s a seller’s market for power hitters. Imagine what the Marlins could get for Miguel Cabrera.