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Olney On Potential Non-Tenders And Bradley

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In today's blog post at ESPN.com, Buster Olney indicates that there is belief among general managers that the "financial restructuring that has been occurring across the landscape is about to hit the arbitration-level players like a tidal wave." He mentions underperforming, but well paid players like Garrett Atkins and Kelly Johnson are prime non-tender bait, especially since their clubs have replacements ready and it's unlikely they'll be able to trade them. Make sure you check out MLBTR's list of non-tender candidates.

Olney also talks about some bad contracts the Cubs could acquire in exchange for Milton Bradley, adding that this morning's Vernon Wells rumor "would be a stunner" if it happened. Some of the players he mentions as possible fits include Carlos Silva, Derek Lowe, Gary Matthews Jr. (who said he wants out of Anaheim), Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, Oliver Perez, and Dontrelle Willis, among others. Any other ideas?

Hudson To Ink Three-Year Extension

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9:14pm: David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution has also heard that the deal will be worth approximately $9MM per season, or around $27MM over three seasons. 

6:39pm: Mark Bowman of MLB.com believes the new three-year deal "will likely be worth $24-27 million."

5:22pm: According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, veteran right-hander Tim Hudson is expected to sign a three-year extension with the Braves by the end of this week.

"It will be a shocker if something doesn't get finished in the next three or four days," said Rosenthal's major league source.

Hudson spent most of the 2009 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but went 2-1 with a 3.61 ERA and a 30/13 K/BB ratio in seven starts once he rejoined the Braves.  The 34-year-old had a $12MM mutual option sitting on 2010, so the new deal is probably structured around that figure as an annual salary.  He has 148 career wins and a 3.49 career ERA.

Rosenthal believes the Braves might decide to trade one of their other veteran arms — "most likely right-hander Javier Vazquez or right-hander Derek Lowe" — for a hitter.

Olney On La Russa, Mulder, Hudson

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ESPN.com's Buster Olney breaks down last night's ALCS contest in detail before turning to some rumors. Here they are:

  • Olney can see Tony La Russa returning to manage the Cardinals for a final season in 2010.
  • Could Mark Mulder end up in Milwaukee? His former pitching coach, Rick Peterson, has joined the Brewers, who are looking for starting pitching. Brewers manager Ken Macha managed the A's when Mulder was in his prime. As Olney points out, Mulder won't be expensive.
  • The Braves are determining the trade market for Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe. They're more likely to bring Tim Hudson back if they anticipate a trade market for Kawakami or Lowe.
  • Talks with Hudson should accelerate in the next week or so.

Odds & Ends: Torre, Braves, Blue Jays

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In the midst of a tight Dodgers-Phillies game, here are some news tidbits from around the baseball world….

  • Before Game Five, Joe Torre said he wants to (and believes he will) be the Dodgers' manager next season, reports Mike Jensen of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
  • Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that Frank Wren is in a bit of a Catch-22 when it comes to re-signing Tim Hudson and Adam LaRoche, and/or trading Kenshin Kawakami or Derek Lowe for hitting help.
  • MLB.com's Jordan Bastian reports that new Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos has spent his first few weeks on the job talking to the team's coaches and players.  After talking to pending free agents Marco Scutaro, Rod Barajas and John McDonald, Anthopoulos said he wants to speak to their respective agents in the coming weeks.
  • As reported by Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Mark Cuban told a group of Pitt students that he won't be buying the Pirates.
  • Speaking of Pittsburgh natives looking to be involved in MLB ownership, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan said that Pittsburgh lawyer Check Greenberg's investment team made with members of the Hicks Sports Group on Wednesday to discuss buying the Rangers. 
  • Tommy Rancel of the DRaysBay blog outlines why he thinks the Rays should look into signing Kelvim Escobar this off-season.

Braves Notes: Jones, Vazquez, Hudson

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The Atlanta Braves went 34-21 in the months of August and September.  Unfortunately for them, their poor play early in the season meant that the playoffs were still out of reach.  While their starting pitching was strong (Derek Lowe's underwhelming year not withstanding), their offense couldn't generate enough support.  Chipper Jones had, arguably, the worst year of his career, posting an OPS of .818 – his lowest in nearly a decade-and-a-half.  Jones' performance was a microcosm of the Braves' season as a whole: certainly not awful, but short of expectations.

Buster Olney, Baseball Prospectus and the Insider Staff broke down the season that was for the Atlanta Braves and what to expect from them this winter.  An ESPN Insider account is required to read the article but here are the highlights for those without:

  • Olney writes that the Braves need a bopper, preferably of the right-handed variety.  The piece suggests Dan Uggla or Miguel Tejada while noting that Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are probably too pricey.  Gary Sheffield is mentioned as a cheaper alternative, but one has to wonder if the Braves are at all interested in reuniting with the outspoken soon-to-be 41-year-old.
  • Atlanta may need a big bat, but they can afford to stand pat when it comes to their rotation.  Javier Vazquez was brilliant this year, posting career bests with an ERA of 2.87 and 9.8 K/9.  With a starting five that also includes Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson, the Braves are one of the fortunate teams that do not have to sift through this year's pool of free agent starters if they don't want to.  While the Braves may give some thought to moving Lowe, who is owed $15MM in each of the next three seasons, they may not find much of a market for his services.
  • The Braves "face an intriguing decision" when it comes to Hudson's $12MM option.  Hudson missed most of the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery but has looked rather healthy since returning, posting an ERA of 3.61 in seven starts.  A blog post from David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution noted that the Braves could decline the option and be able to sign Hudson for "quite a bit less", as Hudson has just built a home in the area.
  • Shawn Hoffman of Baseball Prospectus concludes the piece by saying, "If the rotation can hold some of its gains, and Chipper Jones can at least maintain his current level, the Braves could be very, very tough."

Braves Notes: Jones, Vazquez, Hudson

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The Atlanta Braves went 34-21 in the months of August and September.  Unfortunately for them, their poor play early in the season meant that the playoffs were still out of reach.  While their starting pitching was strong (Derek Lowe's underwhelming year not withstanding), their offense couldn't generate enough support.  Chipper Jones had, arguably, the worst year of his career, posting an OPS of .818 – his lowest in nearly a decade-and-a-half.  Jones' performance was a microcosm of the Braves' season as a whole: certainly not awful, but short of expectations.

Buster Olney, Baseball Prospectus and the Insider Staff broke down the season that was for the Atlanta Braves and what to expect from them this winter.  An ESPN Insider account is required to read the article but here are the highlights for those without:

  • Olney writes that the Braves need a bopper, preferably of the right-handed variety.  The piece suggests Dan Uggla or Miguel Tejada while noting that Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are probably too pricey.  Gary Sheffield is mentioned as a cheaper alternative, but one has to wonder if the Braves are at all interested in reuniting with the outspoken soon-to-be 41-year-old.
  • Atlanta may need a big bat, but they can afford to stand pat when it comes to their rotation.  Javier Vazquez was brilliant this year, posting career bests with an ERA of 2.87 and 9.8 K/9.  With a starting five that also includes Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson, the Braves are one of the fortunate teams that do not have to sift through this year's pool of free agent starters if they don't want to.  While the Braves may give some thought to moving Lowe, who is owed $15MM in each of the next three seasons, they may not find much of a market for his services.
  • The Braves "face an intriguing decision" when it comes to Hudson's $12MM option.  Hudson missed most of the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery but has looked rather healthy since returning, posting an ERA of 3.61 in seven starts.  A blog post from David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution noted that the Braves could decline the option and be able to sign Hudson for "quite a bit less", as Hudson has just built a home in the area.
  • Shawn Hoffman of Baseball Prospectus concludes the piece by saying, "If the rotation can hold some of its gains, and Chipper Jones can at least maintain his current level, the Braves could be very, very tough."

Lowe For Sale?

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In an informative post-mortem on the Braves, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that Atlanta General Manager Frank Wren "is expected to explore the possibility of trading [Derek] Lowe, who is owed $45MM over the final three years of his contract."

The idea makes a ton of sense for Atlanta. With multiple needs, and a surplus of starters, the Braves should certainly jettison one in an effort to add a first baseman, outfielder and/or help in the bullpen.

The question is less about why Atlanta would deal Lowe, and more why anyone would want to deal for him at his price.

Lowe is coming off of a season with a 4.67 ERA along with a strikeout rate of just 5.1 per nine innings. He certainly didn't finish strong, with a 5.05 second-half ERA, and a 6,23 mark from September 1 on. And that $15MM per season will pay for Lowe's age-37, age-38 and age-39 campaigns.

Even if Lowe had pitched extremely well in 2009, it is hard to imagine that many teams could afford him. And of those teams, both the Yankees and Red Sox would hardly want to ask a pitcher with a declining strikeout rate to switch leagues.

It will be fascinating to see if the Braves can find a trading partner for Lowe. They can always make the argument, "He's just a year removed from a 3.24 ERA!" But those arguments never seem to result in renaissance seasons. A lot can change with a year removed. After all, Jon and Kate are just a year removed from being "happily married television stars."

Correia: The Forgotten Padre?

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While nearly all of the national attention on the Padres this year has focused on either A) Adrian Gonzalez or B) the astonishing lack of talent around Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Correia has quietly been one of the best pickups of last offseason, as Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune points out.

Correia signed a one-year, $750K minor-league deal with the Padres last winter. All he's done in 2009 is manage a 3.89 ERA, 138 strikeouts and 63 walks in 192 innings.

For a little contrast: Derek Lowe has pitched to a 4.55 ERA this season- in the first year of a four-year, $60MM contract.

Correia will be trying to reach 200 innings for the first time in his career Friday night. He's got a streak of 20 1/3 scoreless innings going, and in his last ten starts, has a 2.31 ERA.

All of which means he'll be much more expensive this winter. The Padres can offer arbitration and expect a significant raise will be forthcoming.

So what should San Diego do? Let a consistent pitcher who has finished particularly strong reach free agency as a non-tender? Or pay big bucks for a pitcher just a year removed from a 6.05 ERA?

Odds & Ends: Aramis, Marte, Lowe

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Links for Wednesday…

  • Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune talked to Aramis Ramirez about his $14.6MM player option for 2011, and the Cubs' third baseman was noncommittal.  Other third basemen who may become free agents after the 2010 season include Garrett Atkins, Jorge Cantu, Mike Lowell, Jhonny Peralta, and Scott Rolen.
  • Former top prospect Andy Marte spoke with Indians GM Mark Shapiro about the future, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Shapiro told Marte to play first and third base in winter ball and show up early to Spring Training.  It was a tough year for Marte, who turns 26 in November.  He was designated for assignment to make room for Juan Salas in February, cleared waivers, raked at Triple A, and then struggled in the bigs.
  • Braves GM Frank Wren told MLB.com's Mark Bowman that Derek Lowe "pitched really well for us."  Aside from his home run rate, Lowe's numbers declined across the board this year.
  • The Nationals will improve their minor league catching depth for next year, GM Mike Rizzo told MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
  • Miguel Angel Sano is on the backburner for the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASN learned from team president Andy MacPhail.  MLB's inconclusive age investigation is the problem.
  • David Waldstein of the New York Times says Ramon Pena, a special assistant to Mets GM Omar Minaya, will not be back next year.  Waldstein says a scouting/player development shakeup is in order.  Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News has info on possible changes aside from Pena.
  • White Sox closer Bobby Jenks is out for the season with a calf injury.  Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times wonders about the righty's future, given a possible $7MM arbitration reward for the 2010 season.
  • Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News notes the impending raise for Giants closer Brian Wilson, who enters his first arbitration year.  Jenks' $5.6MM salary this year will serve as a comparable, so the Giants will add around $5MM to the payroll compared to Wilson's $480K this year.
  • Braves manager Bobby Cox was not happy with the way GM Frank Wren handled the John Smoltz situation last winter, according to Yahoo's Gordon Edes.

Discussion: What Should Braves Do With Their Pitching Surplus?

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Mark Bowman of MLB.com has an excellent rundown of the Braves' payroll going into 2010. He focuses on Tim Hudson, who had scouts from the Rockies and the Diamondbacks watching him make his return to the mound last night.

It would seem that the Braves have some decisions to make about their starting rotation going into next season. They currently have Hudson, Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. 

According to Bowman, the Braves have a few different options. They could pay Hudson's $1MM buyout and let him go. They could attempt to trade Vazquez for prospects. They could even trade Kawakami for financial relief, though the return for him would be less than what Vazquez would bring. 

Bowman argues that if both Hudson and Vazquez stay with the Braves, Atlanta's rotation "would be deeper than any of the great ones it possessed during the 1990's." Do you agree? How should the Braves proceed?

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