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Perrotto’s Latest: Red Sox, Mets, Burnett, Blalock

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John Perrotto over at Baseball Prospectus has his weekly column up… let’s take a look at what he has to say:

  • Couple of notes about the Red Sox: Perrotto expects Theo Epstein to re-sign Jason Varitek to a two-year deal in the $16MM range. This seems like drastically overpaying for what Varitek has become, in my opinion, but as Perrotto points out, there’s very little on the free agent market. Epstein will then look to trade for a young catcher who can become the starter in 2010 or 2011. Additionally, he’ll try to move Mike Lowell to open up a spot for either Mark Teixeira or Garrett Atkins, but that won’t be an easy task most likely. On a Manny-related note, Terry Francona said the last couple months of 2008 were the "most fun he’s ever had" in Boston, calling them "tremendous." He didn’t mention Manny specifically, but does he really have to?
  • Perrotto says the Mets have decided to pass on Francisco Rodriguez, and will instead pursue Brian Fuentes, as well as Derek Lowe. The Red Sox may also make a strong pitch for Lowe.
  • The Padres will likely take some gambles on rehabbing pitchers for 2009. Perrotto lists Mark Mulder, Matt Clement, and Mark Prior as candidates.
  • Toronto’s interim president Paul Beeston is making A.J. Burnett the organization’s top priority, and Perrotto feels that Burnett wants to stay. Personally, I’m in the other camp and see Burnett opting out and cashing in on a big payday.
  • The Rangers will almost certainly pick up Hank Blalock’s $6.2MM option for 2009.

Colletti: No Offer To Manny Yet

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SATURDAY: Dodgers GM Ned Colletti says both reports about the Dodgers preparing or offering a two-year deal to Ramirez in the $55-60MM range are fiction.  Colletti says the Dodgers haven’t even discussed the length or salary of their offer internally.

Colletti plans to meet with Scott Boras in the near future, and both Ramirez and Derek Lowe will be discussed.  Colletti’s heard Lowe wants to move to the East Coast, however.

FRIDAY: According to Bart Hubbuch, George King, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Dodgers offered Manny Ramirez a two-year, $60MM contract.  Their sources believe this offer was made to appease fans, as it has no chance of being accepted.  Still, $30MM a year is nothing to sneeze at.

ESPN’s Buster Olney notes that the highest-paid outfielder in the game in 2008 (present-day value) was Torii Hunter at just $18MM.  He considers it "a little nuts" to be talking about paying Manny A-Rod money.

Blue Jays Rumors: Burnett, Manny, Ryan

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10:07pm: Dave O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution heard the Blue Jays will make Burnett a "take it or leave it" offer of four years, $54MM ($13.5MM per year).  Burnett’s agent hasn’t heard that, and Ricciardi says there’s no offer on the table currently.  Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail says the Jays have indicated privately they’ll do a three-year, $48MM deal ($16MM per year).  On the open market, Burnett can probably get four or five years at a higher salary.

10:06am: A little more on Ricciardi’s talks with Burnett’s agent.  Here, Ricciardi says talks have been "very productive."  But here, Ricciardi says they’re "not going bad, they’re not going good.  They’re fine."

8:42am: Talking to Cathal Kelly at the Toronto Star, Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi gives the standard line of being willing to trade any player if it makes the team better. Beyond that, he gave some quotes about his offseason plans.

  • Ricciardi says payroll will be $100MM, which should mean $15MM+ to spend after A.J. Burnett leaves for greener pastures.  Ricciardi may allow for uncertainty in the rotation and spend that money on a slugger.  He likes Manny Ramirez, but doesn’t sound optimistic on signing him.
  • Burnett hasn’t officially decided whether to opt out, but…c’mon.  The Jays’ exclusive window to talk to him will depend on when he opts out.  Burnett’s agent set salary expectations at more than Derek Lowe, less than C.C. Sabathia.
  • Ricciardi says trading B.J. Ryan is not a priority for the Jays at present.
  • To sum it all up: Burnett is a long shot, he won’t be replaced with another free agent starter, Manny is unlikely, Marco Scutaro is the shortstop, and Ryan is probably staying put.  If all of those things hold true, it may be difficult to improve in 2008.  On the other hand, full seasons of Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, and a free agent hitter could result in a decent offense.

Lowe Too Pricey For Red Sox?

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Accordig to Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald, Derek Lowe’s strong finish to the 2008 season may have priced him out of the Red Sox’s range.  McAdam believes Lowe will sign for $14-15MM a year over three or four years.  He suggests the Red Sox would’ve been more open to the idea at $10MM or so.  The Red Sox are believed to be Lowe’s preferred destination, but Nick Cafardo says a dozen other teams are interested (the Mets among them).

Lowe, a Boras client, was never getting paid less than Carlos Silva on the open market.  Silva, a far inferior pitcher, has a $12MM average annual salary.  I imagine that once the bar for Jon Garland/Carlos Silva level mediocrity is raised again this year, Lowe will find himself more in the $16-18MM range.  And Boras should be able to get that fourth year guaranteed.  The Red Sox could handle that.

Mets Eyeing Lowe, Fuentes

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post talked to an NL executive who has spoken to Mets officials.  That official says the Mets plan to pursue free agent pitchers Derek Lowe and Brian Fuentes this winter.  Sherman believes they will check in on C.C. Sabathia and Francisco Rodriguez, but won’t be willing to match their prices.

Lowe and Fuentes would fill two of the Mets’ three offseason needs for roughly $30MM in ’09 salary.  That could be all of the available money, unless the Mets backload the contracts, raise payroll, or shed salary via trades.  Left field would be the team’s remaining question mark.

Cafardo’s Latest: Lowe, Maddux, Peavy

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Here’s a look at the latest column from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

  • Interestingly, the Red Sox are reportedly Derek Lowe’s preferred destination.  It’s unknown whether the Sox intend to add a starter this winter, but they may lose free agent Paul Byrd (and will have to decide on Tim Wakefield’s $4MM option).  Cafardo names a dozen other clubs interested in Lowe: the Yankees, Mets, Tigers, Indians, Cardinals, Cubs, Angels, Braves, Phillies, Rangers, Astros, and Blue Jays.
  • Bill Mueller, 38 in March, admits he’d like to play again.  Medically, it’s a long shot because he’d need to regrow cartilage in his knees.
  • One of Greg Maddux’s teammates feels he’ll retire. Maddux could return to the Padres as a player/coach (specifically, he’d prefer a bench coach gig).
  • The Brewers as a sleeper for Jake Peavy?  They’re not on his list, but he’s named other midwest clubs.
  • Cafardo believes catchers Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez will be available this winter.  Makes sense, given the weak free agent market at the position.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Peavy Suitors, Lowe, Cardinals, Marlins

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up, focusing largely on suitors for Jake Peavy, but also touching on some other news at the end… so let’s take a look!

  • Rosenthal states that the following teams have been speculated to be suitors for the Padres’ ace: Braves, Angels, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Rays, Rangers. While all of these are not serious possibilities, he elaborates on each team. He mentions Yunel Escobar as a likely centerpiece from Atlanta, and states that the Angels would love to acquire a frontline starter to allow them to send Ervin Santana and/or Joe Saunders to Colorado in a deal for Matt Holliday and/or Garrett Atkins. Rosenthal states that Howie Kendrick could be a big part of any trade, but his health seems like too serious of a concern to me. Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a dominant rotation for the Yankees if they traded for Peavy and signed C.C. Sabathia. One rival executive’s speculative package for Boston included Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson. The Padres will likely charge the Dodgers considerably more for Peavy’s service, as they are division rivals. He lists Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy as a possible centerpiece for a Milwaukee blockbuster, but also points out that Ben Sheets has made the Brewers wary of injury concerns. The other teams don’t seem to match up well, in Rosenthal’s opinion.
  • Rosenthal says that he was wrong in stating that Derek Lowe would prefer to remain on the West Coast. Lowe has now told him that he’d prefer to go East, with Boston being his top choice. He reiterated this desire to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo.
  • The Cardinals prefer a short-term solution for their closer situation, and will likely give Chris Perez the ninth inning job, or seek a lower-budget option through the trade market. They may also trade a young outfielder for an established bat at a corner OF position.
  • Kevin Gregg is still likely to be traded (perhaps an option for St. Louis), and four teams have asked Florida about Jeremy Hermida. Rosenthal speculates that the Marlins will begin 2009 with Cameron Maybin in center field and Cody Ross in right.

Perrotto’s Latest: Peavy, Unit, Joba

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John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Here’s some highlights from his "Rumors and Rumblings section" this week:

  • Perrotto expects a Jake Peavy deal to be done before the Winter Meetings, stating that the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers seem to be the leaders in the race right now. He notes that the Yankees will be willing to include Phil Hughes, while the Braves are willing to move Yunel Escobar. I personally like the Escobar idea for San Diego, as it would allow them to make Atlanta take on Khalil Greene’s salary. A package around Escobar and Tommy Hanson would certainly be tough to ignore.
  • Perrotto reiterates that a move to the Dodgers or Angels for California-native Randy Johnson seems like a strong possibility. Johnson posted a fine season for the Diamondbacks, despite being 45 years old. He’s maintained a very solid strikeout-rate even at this stage in his career, fanning 8.46 batters per nine innings.
  • The Yankees are planning on using Joba Chamberlain in their rotation next year, but are not planning on settling for what they have. Perrotto states that the Yankees will "go all-in" on the free agent market, making aggressive offers to C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Mark Teixeira. Add in the pursuit of Peavy, and decisions on numerous free agents, and it looks like a very busy offseason for the Bombers.

Heyman’s Latest: Yankees Offseason Plans

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The latest column by Jon Heyman of SI.com is full of all kinds of Yankees notes:

  • They will pursue a top-of-the-rotation starter, and yes, C.C. Sabathia is one of them, but the list also includes A.J. Burnett, Jake Peavy, Derek Lowe, and possibly Ben Sheets. As we wrote yesterday, Peavy’s agent said he’d need "a lot of convincing" to approve a deal to the American League.
  • According to Heyman the goal is for the Bombers to "secure more than one of them."
  • The Yankees have targeted Mark Teixeira but may also take a look at Manny Ramirez (Heyman has mentioned the Manny to the Yankees possibility before, as has Ken Rosenthal).
  • Interest in Teixeira almost certainly means that Jason Giambi is not returning in 2009.
  • Center field is another position the Yankees hope to fill, but they may go the trade route and Heyman mentions Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy as possible bait.
  • If Mike Mussina decides to pitch again in 2009, the Yankees would want him back. A couple of weeks ago, Buster Olney wrote about a "growing sense" that Mussina would be returning for another season.

Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com and can be reached here: alexo05  -at- umpbump -dot- com.

Dodgers Rumors: Manny, Nomar, Lowe, Penny, Kent

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Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times discusses the Dodgers’ upcoming busy offseason, while Bill Shaikin focuses on Manny Ramirez.

  • Nomar Garciaparra is undecided about playing next year.  He hit .264/.326/.466 in 181 plate appearances in 2008 while earning $8.5MM.
  • Manager Joe Torre seems to consider pitching the top offseason priority.  Makes sense, with the statuses of Derek Lowe and Brad Penny in question.  Hernandez’s sources say Lowe felt underappreciated during his time in L.A., and he is expected to leave.  It’s unknown whether the Dodgers will choose Penny’s $9.25MM option or the $2MM buyout.
  • Hernandez doesn’t see GM Ned Colletti breaking up his core group of young players to acquire Jake Peavy.
  • The departure of Jeff Kent is near-certain  Blake DeWitt can step in at second or third base.
  • The Manny situation is difficult, because the Dodgers will take a lot of heat if they won’t meet his asking price (perhaps $100MM+).  Former Dodgers GM Fred Claire suggests a more reasonable offer of three years, $60MM.
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