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Hunter Greene

Draft Notes: Top 50, Greene, Schmidt

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ESPN.com’s Keith Law provides his ranking of the top fifty amateur players (Insider link) who are eligible for selection in this summer’s Rule 4 draft. The group as a whole has generally disappointed, Law writes, perhaps leading teams to “flee to safety” by looking at safer collegiate performers with their top selections. Of course, such a strategy would also open up some greater opportunities for organizations with multiple early selections to take some risks on higher-upside, younger prospects.

  • Like most analysts, Law has called right-handed pitcher and shortstop Hunter Greene the top overall draft prospect. As has been suggested previously, he will indeed no longer take the hill in high school competition in advance of the draft, as Hudson Belinsky of Baseball America writes. That’s unlikely to impact his stock, as teams have already seen plenty of triple-digit heaters and will continue to watch him play in the field — where he’s also considered a top talent. Greene and his family are taking a very active role in assessing organizations and their approaches to developing pitchers, Belinsky explains, with the Twins (who sit at first overall) and Padres (third) seemingly making for a better match than the Reds (who choose second).
  • One of the draft’s other top prospects, South Carolina righty Clarke Schmidt, has unfortunately been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will undergo Tommy John surgery, as Belinsky also reports. The junior starter had risen to be seen as a clear first-round selection before this rough news. Of course, he could still end up being taken with a lofty selection; we have seen several hurlers nabbed quite early in the draft in recent years despite serious arm injuries.

Quick Hits: Pedroia, JDM, Greene, Draft, Analytics

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Dustin Pedroia will undergo an MRI on his left ankle and knee on Monday, Red Sox manager John Farrell told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Jen McCaffrey and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham).  After suffering the injury on a hard slide from Manny Machado on Friday, Pedroia sat out Saturday’s game and is also not in Sunday’s lineup, as Farrell said the swelling around Pedroia’s lower leg area hasn’t yet subsided.  While the MRI is being performed “just to rule anything out,” according to Farrell, it’s worth noting that Pedroia underwent surgery on that same knee to remove part of his meniscus last October.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • J.D. Martinez could return from the DL in late April or early May, Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck).  This is the latest in a series of positive reports on Martinez, who suffered a lisfranc sprain in his left foot during Spring Training.  The original timeline had Martinez not even beginning baseball activities until mid-April, though the slugging outfielder has been ahead of schedule, including feeling better than expected during light running drills on Friday.  The Tigers will reportedly be cautious with Martinez, which isn’t any surprise given the tricky nature of lisfranc injuries and Martinez’s importance to Detroit’s lineup.
  • “The rumors of [Hunter Greene] and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret,” Baseball America’s John Manuel writes as part of a mock draft.  Greene, a high school pitcher/shortstop, reportedly wants to be a Padre for geographical (Greene is from Los Angeles) and baseball-related reasons, as the Padres’ throwing program more closely matches Greene’s own throwing program.  Interestingly, Greene is believed to be shutting down as a pitcher, perhaps in part to lower his draft stock so that Minnesota and Cincinnati pass on him with the first two picks and Greene winds up in San Diego.  Then again, the Reds “aren’t afraid to call Greene’s bluff,” Manuel writes.
  • Manuel’s piece is well worth a full read, as he details potential needs, leanings, and first-round draft picks for all 30 teams.  Sticking with the top of the draft, the Reds “covet” Brendan McKay, the Louisville two-way star who Manuel projects will be taken first overall by the Twins as a pitcher.  Then again, Minnesota is also reportedly exploring deals with several players for the first pick, including high school position player Royce Lewis and Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith.
  • Teams showed an increased willingness to pay for pitch-framing ability and defense this winter (such as the Twins and Jason Castro) on the catching market, though as Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com notes, there are so many facets to the position that “catching cannot be quantified” no matter how hard teams try.  The same could technically be said of any position, though a catcher’s true value is particularly difficult to pin down since the human element of the pitcher/catcher relationship is so important.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Arrieta, Heyward, Draft, Yankees, Phillies

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Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta handled the Brewers on Sunday in a seven-inning, 10-strikeout showing, after which he downplayed concerns about his diminished velocity. “Where I’m at now in my career, I don’t worry about it, because I know that I’m smart enough to work around that,” Arrieta told reporters, including Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago. “The velocity’s still good enough to get it by guys and to do certain things in certain situations with it.” The 31-year-old is clearly confident in his current stuff, but he does expect to regain his lost velocity. “When the 95-to-97 comes back, it’s going to be tough for teams. And it still is,” declared Arrieta, who has posted sterling numbers through two starts this year as he continues to make his case for a massive contract. Arrieta stands as arguably the majors’ top soon-to-be free agent.

More from around the sport:

  • Although there has been skepticism toward Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward’s remade swing, the early returns on his offseason work have been promising, writes Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. Heyward picked up a pair of hits, including a triple, in five at-bats Sunday, and he managed to put the ball in play with 95 mph-plus exit velocities in each trip to the plate. “I like his hands,” observed manager Joe Maddon. “I like his hands more involved right now. He’s getting started sooner, staying through the ball longer.” Heyward’s previous swing yielded a highly disappointing .230/.306/.325 line in 592 PAs last season, which came as a shock after the normally solid hitter inked an eight-year, $184MM contract in free agency.
  • California-based high schooler Hunter Greene is the premier prospect in this year’s draft class based on his ability as a pitcher, but he’s also a top-10 talent as a shortstop, according to Keith Law of ESPN.com (subscription required/recommended). Law scouted Greene’s start Friday and noted that the right-hander’s fastball didn’t fall below 94 mph in any of his seven innings. The 17-year-old has No. 1 starter upside, opines Law, who believes Greene could even play some short and work as a part-time hitter in the majors. Louisville’s Brendan McKay, whom Law regards as the second-best player in this year’s class, is also a two-way talent. McKay is both a left-handed pitcher and a first baseman, and Law expects him to settle in as a hurler – one who could serve as a No. 3 type for the long haul. McKay has less upside than Greene, but the 21-year-old would be the safer pick, suggests Law. Check out the full piece for more details on both players.
  • The Yankees remain unsure sure how much time cornerstone catcher Gary Sanchez will miss on account of his right biceps strain, writes George A. King III of the New York Post. While the Sanchez-less Yanks could continue with Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka behind the plate in lieu of exploring outside options, King lists several potential targets if the club does look elsewhere for help. Hector Sanchez (Padres), Jesus Sucre (Rays), Tuffy Gosewisch (Mariners), former Yankee John Ryan Murphy (Twins), Ryan Hanigan (Rockies), Bobby Wilson (Dodgers) and Manny Pina (Brewers) are names to watch, relays King.
  • In the wake of Jeanmar Gomez’s meltdown against the Nationals on Sunday, Phillies manager Pete Mackanin revealed that he’s “considering” changing closers (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). “I’m going to have a talk with him tomorrow,” said Mackanin, whose Phillies escaped with a 4-3 win after Gomez blew a save. “I’ll have something for you tomorrow. I need to talk with him.” Gomez has allowed multiple runs in two of three appearances this year, and he has been especially prone to poor outings since the second half of last season. Gomez did log 37 saves in 2016, but he accomplished that in spite of a 4.85 ERA and a subpar K/9 (6.16). Now, if the Phillies turn to someone else as their closer, it’ll likely be Joaquin Benoit, Hector Neris or Edubray Ramos, notes Zolecki. Keeping Neris and Ramos in setup roles would tamp down their future arbitration earnings, though it’s unclear if that will factor into the Phillies’ decision.

Quick Hits: Draft, Norris, Sternberg, Hanson, Quintana

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This year’s amateur draft class is still quite unsettled, though in Baseball America’s initial ranking of the Top 100 draft prospects, Hudson Belinsky and John Manuel note that a pair of two-way players are standing out as the potential top two picks.  Louisville first baseman/left-handed pitcher Brendan McKay is drawing most of his attention as an “elite pure hit tool” batter though “at least one” interested team prefers him on the mound.  No right-handed high school pitcher has ever been drafted first overall, though 17-year-old Hunter Greene has an upper-90s fastball and has touched the 102mph mark.  This kind of live arm at such a young age has even drawn some Dwight Gooden comparisons, so most evalutors prefer Greene as a pitcher, though he also possesses “top-of-the-scale raw power” as a shortstop.  The Twins own the first pick in June’s draft, though McKay and Greene are just two of nine players Minnesota is reportedly considering for the top selection.

Here’s more from around baseball…

  • The Rays are currently “on the outside looking in” of the Derek Norris hunt, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter), though they are still one of multiple teams talking to the free agent catcher.  The Rays have a need at catcher since Wilson Ramos will miss some time at the start of the season and require DH days after returning, and they’ve been linked to Norris since he was released by the Nationals last week.
  • Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Bill Chastain) about the team’s search for a new ballpark, noting that the Rays have already moved on from their top choice.  “We had some ideas on locations that weren’t available, that I thought would work perfectly, that were off the table,” Sternberg said. “So we’re sort of moving down our list, No. 2, 3, and 4.  Sometimes it’s like starting pitchers.  You have five of them, and sometimes No. 4 is better than No. 2, and really better than No. 1.“
  • Reds right-hander Nick Hanson, the club’s third-round pick in the 2016 draft, will undergo Tommy John surgery, as reported by SB Nation’s Eric Roseberry and the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter links).  Hanson, a Minnesota high schooler, was slated to attend the University of Kentucky before agreeing to an above-slot $925K bonus to join the Reds.  The 2017 Baseball America Prospect Handbook ranked him as the 30th-best prospect in Cincy’s system, describing the 6’6″ 18-year-old as “understandably raw with a loose arm” but owning a fastball in the 91-95mph range and the potential for an above-average curveball.  Given the usual TJ recovery period, Hanson’s best-case scenario for a return is midway through the 2018 season.
  • Jose Quintana is worth the big price it would cost the Pirates to acquire the southpaw from the White Sox, Paul Zeise of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette opines.  Quintana’s strong track record and affordable contract make him a good fit for the Bucs, who could sacrifice young arms Tyler Glasnow and Mitch Keller in order to win now with Quintana, in Zeise’s view.  Giving up outfield prospect Austin Meadows could be difficult, though Zeise wonders if the Sox have perhaps slightly lowered their asking price.  (White Sox GM Rick Hahn said nothing had changed on that front in comments to reporters today.)  Pirates GM Neal Huntington “should do [the trade] today,” Zeise writes, if Chicago would accept Glasnow, Keller and Josh Bell.

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