Carroll’s Latest: Burnett, Twins, Cardinals
Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll has plenty of rumors in his latest post.
- Pat Gillick "doesn’t seem that interested" in going back to work for the Mariners.
- One team asked the Blue Jays to include players to be named later on both sides of an A.J. Burnett deal, to serve as a balance for the pitcher’s uncertain tricky contract. The Jays passed on that idea. By the way, the Toronto Star’s Richard Griffin thinks the Jays will keep Burnett unless offered a player who can improve the ’08 team.
- Carroll wonders whether the Pirates would consider trading Ian Snell. Snell is signed through 2010 with club options for ’11 and ’12.
- Beyond Adrian Beltre, the Twins "have taken a hard look" at Hank Blalock, Garrett Atkins, and Casey Blake.
- The Cards are searching the Triple A ranks for the next Ryan Ludwick. Maybe they were one of the teams inquiring on Nelson Cruz?
Snell And Pirates Agree To Three-Year Deal
SUNDAY, 7:13pm: Paul Meyer of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette clears things up. It is a guaranteed contract of $8MM for three years, with a $600K signing bonus. The two option years are worth at least $16MM, not including "standard incentive clauses." That’s a great deal for the Bucs, wouldn’t you say?
SUNDAY, 6:23pm: The three-year deal is worth at least $8MM, according to a CBSSports.com wire report.
SUNDAY, 4:22pm: It has just been announced on MLB.com that the Pirates have signed starting pitcher Ian Snell to a three-year guaranteed contract, with club options for 2011 and 2012. Salary amounts have not yet been released, though Tim has surveyed the range of possible contract amounts here and here.
This season is Snell’s last before becoming arbitration eligible. As Tim pointed out earlier, $13-14MM is the the going rate for a talented young pitcher’s arbitration eligible years.
Pirates fans have to be encouraged by this announcement, as Senior VP and GM Neal Huntington has been held out as a reason for true optimism in The Land of the Three Rivers. Additionally, Snell is one of the more talented young starting pitchers in the NL, ranking sixth in strikeouts in the league since the beginning of the 2006 season.
Said Huntington, "This is another example of the organization’s commitment to build a championship caliber club. Retaining talented young players developed in our system will help us achieve our goal of bringing championships back to Pittsburgh."
Pirates Make Offer To Snell
Dejan Kovacevic noted on Saturday that the Pirates have made a formal long-term offer to righty Ian Snell. As I wrote last Wednesday, the going rate for three arb years of a good young starter is $13-14MM. Kovacevic believes it was a four-year offer, probably tacking on the ’08 season for less than a million bucks before covering Snell’s arb years.
Though the going rate is pretty well established, there is definitely still room for negotiation. Look at the differences between the three comparable deals:
- Jamie Shields (signed January ’08) – extra money for pre-arb years, third arb year a club option, club options to buy out two possible free agency years. Also includes performance bonuses. Shields took a little more cash upfront for possibly a lot less down the road. The most team-friendly deal.
- Chris Young (signed April ’07) – third arb year guaranteed, club option for one free agency year. The middle ground deal between Shields and Cain.
- Matt Cain (signed March ’07) – club option for third arb year, but it may vest. Also a $1MM signing bonus and another $600K in incentives. The Giants don’t get in the way of Cain’s free agent payday after the 2011 season.
Contract info from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
Pirates Talking Long-Term With Snell, LaRoche
According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates have reached out to Ian Snell‘s agent about a long-term deal. Snell’s salary will increase drastically in 2009 as he reaches arbitration. For that reason, I’ve wondered whether he might be next offseason’s available young ace. Jamie Shields‘ deal could serve as a guide if the Bucs just want to buy out Snell’s three arb years from 2009-11. Shields gave up his arb years for $13.75MM, though the last of those involves a club option. $13-14MM (not necessarily guaranteed) seems to be the going rate for a young pitcher’s arb years, looking at Shields, Chris Young, and Matt Cain.
Additionally, the Bucs are talking to first baseman Adam LaRoche about an extension. LaRoche is set to reach free agency after the ’09 season. I was surprised to see that LaRoche’s career numbers aren’t much different from Justin Morneau‘s (granted Morneau has played in the tougher league and has an MVP trophy). Morneau recently gave up four free agent years at $14MM a pop; LaRoche should ask for at least $10MM per year for 2010 and beyond. Looking at Morneau’s contract reminds me that he is far from a bargain.
Finally, Kovacevic says talks with Matt Capps have "fizzled" because Manny Corpas‘ deal raised the bar. That’s odd, because Corpas has a team-friendly contract. He gets $12.25MM over his arb years, with the last of those a club option. Then the Rockies have a club option on Corpas’ first potential year of free agency at $8MM.
Odds and Ends: Inge, Snell, Jones
Some early Monday odds and ends to get things rolling…
- D-Town Baseball takes a closer look at the idea of Brandon Inge catching this year, something Dave Dombrowski would recommend to him.
- According to Marc Topkin, the Rays have increased payroll more than they promised (from $24MM in ’07 past $40MM this year.)
- Speaking of ’08 payrolls, the Detroit Free Press projects the Tigers at nearly $134MM.
- We’ve got a good discussion at RotoAuthority going regarding my Top 76 Fantasy Baseball Outfielders.
- The Pirates rejected Ian Snell‘s idea of a contract extension. He’s under team control for four more seasons, so they’re in no hurry.
- Some quotes from Adam Jones regarding being pulled from winter league ball.
Pirates Rumors: Snell, Estrada, Villone
John Perrotto had some new Pirates’ rumblings in yesterday morning’s column.
- Don’t be so quick to dismiss the Ian Snell to Seattle rumor. Perrotto acknowledges it, noting that the Mariners would offer Jeff Clement but the Pirates would probably require Adam Jones.
- Perrotto believes the Pirates have backed off their pursuit of Johnny Estrada, though Dejan Kovacevic hasn’t heard this. I never thought Estrada made much sense for them.
- Perrotto says the Pirates have an eye on free agent lefty Ron Villone, who pitched for them back in ’02.
Ian Snell, Jason Bay On Mariners’ Radar?
UPDATE, 1-5-08 at 10:29am: Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider says talks between the Pirates and Mariners for Bay and Snell "never went past the introductory stages" – the Bucs’ demands are not reasonable.
FROM 1-3-08 at 11:51pm:
Jake at Bucco Blog has been hearing a lot of buzz lately about the Mariners’ interest in Pirates’ righty Ian Snell. The 26 year-old posted a 3.76 ERA in 208 innings in 2007. He was an ace in the first half (2.93 ERA).
Snell seems somewhat comparable to Matt Garza, though he’s a bit older and has an extra year of service time. So maybe acquiring him doesn’t require a Delmon Young-caliber player, but something close. If Neal Huntington can get Adam Jones for him straight up, I think he should pull the trigger.
Mailbag: Nioka, Crede, Snell
Let’s dig through the ol’ mailbag once again. Feel free to shoot an email to mlbtraderumors@gmail.com.
Do you have any news regarding Japanese shortstop Tomohiro Nioka? Is he a free agent and are any teams pursuing him? – Bob
It seems that Nioka turned out to be ineligible for free agency. We’ll have to keep an eye out for him next year.
What’s up with Joe Crede? Will the ChiSox be looking to deal him this summer if they are struggling? And if so, you have to believe the Phillies would be top contenders for him. – Dan
I’m almost certain Crede will be dealt, I’m just not sure when. Maybe after a week or two of proving his health in Spring Training? Josh Fields needs his reps at third base, so I’d be surprised if the Sox started the season with Crede at the hot corner. The Phillies seem like the perfect fit, especially since Kenny Williams and Pat Gillick have gotten together for many deals.
Have you heard anything about a package of Snell and Bay from Pittsburgh to the M’s for some prospects? – Aaron
Jake at Bucco Blog heard this rumor just a few days ago. Both of them going to Seattle would represent a whole lot of talent. Seems that it would require Adam Jones and then some. Might make more sense for the Mariners to target just Snell, since they’re in fine shape in the outfield.
Tigers Willing To Trade Miller In Haren Deal?
A short note from Yahoo’s Tim Brown: the Tigers were apparently willing to put stud starter Andrew Miller in a deal for Dan Haren. It’s interesting to hear that the Tigers inquired on Haren. You have to figure Miller or Cameron Maybin would be a requirement.
Meanwhile Brown reiterates that the D’Backs checked in on both Haren and Joe Blanton. Arizona may have also checked in on Ian Snell, if you believe lobby fodder.
Pirates Rumors From Bucco Blog
Jake at Bucco Blog has some hot stove material, in addition to his roundup of Pirates prospects.
The Rays are looking for a shortstop, and Jake hears that they might be interested in Jack Wilson. Jake said he debunked this rumor earlier this month, but there "might be renewed interest." I don’t see it. Wilson has had a few decent years, but with over $14 million left on his contract, I see the Rays taking a cheaper route.
Jake is hearing that the Pirates "we’re not actively shopping any players" line is just a front. According to his source, the Pirates are playing this game in order to generate better trades later on, once the smoke has settled. Teams that missed out on their top targets might be more desperate to trade for, say, Jason Bay or Ian Snell later on.
If the Pirates are willing to gut the roster, would that include fielding offers for Tom Gorzelanny, Matt Capps, and Freddy Sanchez? Jake thinks, and I agree, that Gorz should be as close to untouchable as you can get. He doesn’t think the numbers indicate that Capps can continue his dominance, though his low walk rate certainly helps his case.
Honestly, if Sanchez can fetch anything decent, he needs to be dished. Yeah, he won the batting title in 2006, but he had an average year at the plate in 2007, albeit above average for a second baseman. He’ll be 30 next year, and will start getting expensive. I’d hang on to Gorz, Capps, and Snell, as they’ll all be 25 and under in 2008.
Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.