Ross Atkins Addresses Blue Jays Offseason
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins addressed reporters following the team’s playoff exit at the hands of the Mariners. With a manager still holding the interim tag, a young core that’s getting more and more expensive, and veterans dealing with injuries there’s plenty of question marks going into the offseason in Toronto.
Atkins didn’t make any firm commitments at manager just yet. Asked about the status of interim skipper John Schneider, Atkins noted that it would be “very difficult for us to find better than [him]” but cautioned he “wants more time to work through the (hiring) process” (via Julia Kreuz of MLB.com). The Jays fired Charlie Montoyo in July with the team 46-42. Schneider was handed the team through the end of the season, and the Jays went 46-28 with him at the helm. While the improvement under Schneider is evident, the team did still fall well short of expectations in the playoffs. Atkins and his front office staff certainly wouldn’t rule Schneider out because of two games, and there’d seem to be a good chance he’s retained, but he wasn’t prepared to make any move at this point.
On the playing side, Atkins seemed to indicate running back the current core to be the best path to a championship for the team. The GM both downplayed any urgency to make a core-altering trade and indicated the club had laid the groundwork in extension talks with some core players in hopes of further discussions this offseason (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Atkins didn’t divulge any specifics, but it stands to reason players like Alek Manoah, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette would fit into that group. Guerrero has three more seasons of arbitration control but is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $14.1MM next year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player in 2021. Bichette is projected for $6.1MM in his first year of eligibility and is likewise controllable through 2025. Manoah is controllable through 2027 and not yet arbitration eligible, although he’s likely to qualify for Super Two at the end of next season.
Atkins was non-committal on how active the Jays will be in free agency, but Nicholson-Smith mentions they’re expected to pursue starting pitching help. Kevin Gausman is a lock to lead the rotation, but Jose Berrios struggled to a 5.23 ERA in 2022, while Yusei Kikuchi pitched his way out of the rotation with a 5.19 ERA. Berrios will get a chance to turn things around in 2023, while Kikuchi is expected to get another crack at pitching out of the rotation next year. However, Ross Stripling is an impending free agent and Hyun Jin-Ryu will miss most, if not all, of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Atkins also addressed the status of George Springer, who left the Jays final playoff game after colliding with Bichette while pursuing a shallow fly ball. The Jays announced this morning that Springer had sustained a concussion and a strained left shoulder. Atkins indicated today that Springer also has a bone spur in his right elbow and could undergo offseason surgery (Nicholson-Smith). In any event, the expectation is that he’ll be ready for spring training, although given he’s 33 with a checkered injury past and declining defensive numbers it’s fair to wonder how long the Jays will count on him as an everyday center fielder.
Blue Jays Notes: Stripling, Guerrero Jr., Schneider
The Blue Jays enter the offseason on the heels of one of the most epic collapses in postseason history. Toronto led the Mariners by a score of 8-1 in the sixth inning of Game 2 of their Wild Card series before Seattle rallied for nine runs in the final four innings en route to a 10-9 series-clinching victory. Saturday’s Game 2 is only the third playoff game ever in which a team came back to win from a deficit of seven runs or more, and holds the record for the largest deficit surmounted in a playoff comeback by a road team.
As the Mariners head to Houston to take on their division rivals in the ALDS, the Blue Jays head into the offseason with a decent idea of what their roster will look like in 2023. Toronto’s current active roster only contains four players, Anthony Bass, David Phelps, Ross Stripling, and Jackie Bradley Jr., who will be free agents this offseason. Since Bradley Jr.’s .524 OPS with the Blue Jays will probably not warrant another opportunity in Toronto, Ross Stripling is the free agent that will receive the majority of the front office’s attention.
Stripling was fantastic in his role as a rotation replacement for Hyun-Jin Ryu, who went down in June with a UCL injury that ultimately resulted in Tommy John surgery. Over 24 starts for the Jays, Stripling accumulated a 2.92 ERA and struck out 100 batters, while walking only 14. Ryu’s injury will likely keep him out for most, if not all of 2023, depending on the speed of his recovery. It seems possible, then, that Stripling could return to Toronto on a multi-year deal and fill a spot in their rotation long-term, since Ryu’s contract expires after 2023.
On the bullpen side, Bass is coming off his finest big-league season in which he posted a cumulative 1.54 ERA out of the bullpen in 70 1/3 innings split between the Miami Marlins and the Blue Jays. Toronto has a $3 million option on Bass for 2023, which they are almost sure to pick up. Phelps also had a fine 2022 out of the ‘pen for the Jays, logging a 2.83 ERA in 63 2/3 innings. If they are unable to retain Phelps, they may seek external bullpen help from what is shaping up to be a fairly rich market for free agent relievers.
From a positional perspective, much of the Blue Jays’ offseason discourse will center around locking up their young stars long-term. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will head into his second year of arbitration, and is due for a big pay raise. Guerrero Jr. has said publicly that he is “open” to a long-term extension with the Jays and that he hopes “something can be done” during this offseason. Keeping their franchise cornerstone in Toronto is going to require Jays ownership to dole out the largest contract in franchise history. A theoretical extension for Guerrero Jr., age 23, ought to take him well into his mid-30’s and would dwarf the $150 million in total cash handed to George Springer two years ago. Bo Bichette, who is entering his first year of arbitration, is another extension candidate that the Jays would surely love to keep in Toronto.
The biggest question surrounding Toronto’s offseason is not one regarding players, but of their manager. John Schneider was named interim manager after Charlie Montoyo was fired on July 13. Under Schneider, the Jays went 46-28 and went from holding a half game lead for the third and final AL wild card spot to securing the first wild card spot by a two-game margin. According to Mitch Bannon of SI.com (via Twitter), there is overwhelming support from Blue Jays players for Schneider to return as their manager. Third baseman Matt Chapman was vocal about his support for Schneider after the Jays Game 2 loss, saying that Schneider is “great” for the Jays and “understands the pulse” of the players (via Twitter).
Regardless of whether or not Schneider returns to manage the Blue Jays, Toronto’s roster looks primed to compete for another postseason spot in 2023.
AL East Notes: Story, Bogaerts, LeMahieu, Quinn, Schneider
Red Sox infielder Trevor Story has only played 94 games this season due to various injuries and doesn’t have much time left to add to that total. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports that the earliest Story could come back from the IL is the club’s final series against the Rays, which begins October 3.
Story’s health won’t impact the 2022 season at this point as the club is eliminated from postseason contention, but it will be significant for the 2023 club. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts can opt out of his contract this offseason and is widely expected to do so. Boston will then have to decide on what their middle infield plan is for next year. Extension talks in the spring reportedly didn’t make any progress and Rob Bradford of WEEI relays word from Bogaerts that talks haven’t picked back up as of yet.
The club could theoretically move Story back to shortstop, where he played for years while with the Rockies, and then give second base to Christian Arroyo, Enrique Hernandez, Yu Chang or someone else. However, that plan will come with some uncertainty. Story dealt with shoulder issues in 2021, making 11 throwing errors that year. Some in the industry felt he was better suited to second base, which is where the Sox have had him this year. He seems to have taken well to the position change, racking up five Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average despite barely playing half a season. If the club decides that Story has found a good home at the keystone, they would then have to figure out who’s taking over at short.
Some other tidbits from the AL Beast…
- The Yankees could activate DJ LeMahieu from the IL tomorrow, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “We’re about at that point of, let’s go give this thing a go,” manager Aaron Boone tells Hoch. LeMahieu has been out of action for more than three weeks due to a toe injury, which put a halt to another fine season at the plate for the 34-year-old. He’s hit .262/.358/.381 for a wRC+ of 117 while providing quality defense at first, second and third base. All told, he’s produced three wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, making this the eighth straight season of him getting to 1.9 fWAR or higher. The Yankees have already clinched a spot in the playoffs and are virtually guaranteed to finish atop the AL East and earn a bye past the first round. If LeMahieu is indeed able to rejoin the team tomorrow, he will have a week to get some at-bats and get back into game shape before the regular season concludes.
- Rays outfielder Roman Quinn has joined the Triple-A Durham Bulls to begin a rehab assignment, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Quinn played well in 21 games for the Rays, hitting .262/.340/.305 for a wRC+ of 121 before landing on the IL due to a knee contusion. He hasn’t hit for much in the majority of his time in the big leagues but has always been useful due to his speed and defense. The Rays are likely headed for the postseason as they currently hold the second AL Wild Card spot and could potentially find Quinn’s skillset to be useful off the bench.
- The Blue Jays fired Charlie Montoyo from his manager role earlier this year and gave John Schneider the position on an interim basis. The Jays have generally fared well since the move, going 41-25 since he was pushed up to the top job in the dugout. That might be enough for the club to simply remove the “interim” tag for next season, though a final decision is not being made public just yet. “He’s certainly a long-term fit,” general manager Ross Atkins tells Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, though also indicating they will make a formal decision at a later date. Matheson opines that Schneider will be sticking around, though it seems official proclamations will have to wait.