Discussion: Josh Beckett
When the Red Sox signed John Lackey earlier this offseason, many wondered if Josh Beckett's time in Boston was coming to an end. Beckett's $12.1MM option for 2010 vested in early September, though with Lackey joining incumbents Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Tim Wakefield, the Sox could probably afford to let Beckett walk after the season instead of giving him a huge payday.
Beckett will turn 30 in May, and during his four years in Boston he's posted a 4.05 ERA in 122 starts, twice appearing in an All Star Game and once winning the World Series. His 4.38 K/BB ratio over the last three seasons trails only Mariano Rivera, Kevin Slowey, Dan Haren, and Roy Halladay, while his 3.28 xFIP lags behind only Tim Lincecum among starters in that time. The performance is not an issue, but as WEEI.com's Rob Bradford writes, the health of Beckett's shoulder might be.
We've already heard that Boston would probably use Halladay's three-year, $60MM deal (minus $6-8MM) as a guideline for a Beckett extension instead of Lackey's five-year, $82.5MM deal. However if he has a strong 2010 season, it shouldn't be too hard for Beckett to find more than that on the free agent market, even in this economic climate.
What do you think the Sox should do with Beckett after the season? Offer him the long-term deal he probably deserves, or hold the line like they did with Jason Bay and take him back on their terms only? Aces in their prime don't exactly flood the market, after all.
Odds & Ends: Theriot, Delgado, Damon, Yankees
Links for Tuesday…
- 2011 free agent Brandon Webb threw for the first time since his August shoulder surgery today and told MLB.com's Steve Gilbert that he feels good.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says (via Twitter) that he's not under the impression that the Reds are in on Johnny Damon.
- The Cubs haven't spoken with Ryan Theriot's representatives recently and expect to go to an arbitration hearing with the infielder, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
- Jim Reeves of ESPNDallas.com explains how Rangers GM Jon Daniels now reports to Nolan Ryan. Within the piece, Daniels says the Rangers obtained virtually every player they targeted this offseason.
- Carlos Delgado's agent tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that his client's conditioning is progressing well (Twitter link).
- Morosi tweets that the Brewers signed Chase Wright to a minor league deal.
- Corey Hart's arbitration hearing is scheduled for Thursday, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. If the hearing does occur, Hart will either be paid $4.8MM or $4.15MM in 2010. It'll be Doug Melvin's first hearing as Brewers GM.
- Johnny Damon is a big fan of Steve Yzerman and the Detroit Red Wings, agent Scott Boras told John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press. Boras says Damon received "four or five offers right away" after it became clear the Yankees wouldn't re-sign him.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman explained to George King of the New York Post that he groups Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Joe Girardi together in terms of not negotiating extensions.
- WEEI's Rob Bradford explains why Josh Beckett's shoulder will be a critical factor in whether the Red Sox re-sign the righty.
- Comparing 2008 to 2009, FanGraphs' Matthew Carruth lists the pitchers with the biggest gains and losses on their fastballs.
- The Brewers agreed to sign Dominican righties Eduard Reyes, Carlos Sosa, and Elvis Mora, reports MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.
- McCalvy points us to this entertaining interview the blog Right Field Bleachers did with Marlins reliever Seth McClung.
- The blog Monozygotic compiled a list of non-roster Spring Training invitees for all 30 teams.
Cafardo’s Latest: Beckett, Red Sox, Twins, Lowry
The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo has plenty of rumors from around the league for us this morning, so let's round them all up…
- The Red Sox are likely to use Roy Halladay's three-year, $60MM deal "minus $6 million-$8 million" as a guideline for a potential Josh Beckett extension rather than John Lackey's five-year, $82.5MM deal. The reason being that they have some concern about the long-term health of his shoulder.
- If another team comes offering Beckett big money after the season, the Sox will move on just as they did with Jason Bay. They could then look into free agents like Cliff Lee, who they pursued at the trade deadline, or even Ben Sheets and Brandon Webb if they bounce back from injury problems of their own.
- With all of their additions this offseason, the Twins' payroll will jump from $65M to about $96M as they move into Target Field this year. GM Bill Smith said it will be up to manager Ron Gardenhire to determine how they use Jim Thome, and that they did their homework on Orlando Hudson's left wrist, which has given him trouble the last few seasons.
- Minnesota's payroll will be larger than the Dodgers' this year.
- The Red Sox watched Noah Lowry's recent workout, but "don't appear interested in signing him."
- Dodgers' third base coach Larry Bowa said he knows that Manny Ramirez still wants to play another three or four years.
- Two big league executives feel that the Giants and Tim Lincecum will settle on a contract before an arbitration hearing.
- One reason the Cubs signed Kevin Millar was to loosen up the clubhouse after the Milton Bradley fiasco last season.
- Drayton McLane is reportedly seeking $700MM to part with the Astros, but it's tough to see someone coming up with that when the Rangers sold for approximately $575MM.
Odds & Ends: Orioles, Beckett, Brewers, Giants
Saturday night linkage..
- The Orioles are in search of a lefty reliever, writes The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec. The guy the O's really want is Will Ohman, as they extended him a minor league contract offer in late January. Japanese lefty Hisanori Takahashi and Joe Beimel are also options for the club.
- Joe McDonald and Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal take a look at the big decision Boston will face – whether or not to re-sign Josh Beckett. If the BoSox choose not to retain the 29-year-old, they'll have to recognize that his replacement likely won't be found in free agency.
- Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel praises GM Doug Melvin for stocking up on hurlers this offseason. Free agent pickups Randy Wolf and Doug Davis were brought aboard to help support Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, and Yovani Gallardo.
- Giants managing general partner Bill Neukom is not sure that the Giants' payroll will reach $100MM as has been originally reported, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco's payroll was $82.6MM to start the 2009 season.
Odds & Ends: Mariners, Mets, Astros
Lots to get to on this Monday- so close to spring training, you can taste the grapefruit, or if your team heads to Arizona, the cactus…
- ESPN.com's Rob Neyer takes the Mariners to task for acquiring too many good players. He makes the point that "this is a good problem to have", but that the Mariners might have been better off simply letting Ken Griffey Jr. go. What he's saying makes some sense- there are a finite number of at-bats, of course- but when that is the worst thing you can say about the Seattle offseason, it's been a tremendous offseason.
- The New York Post's Joel Sherman points out that Seattle's GM, Jack Zduriencik, was an employee of the Mets for well over a decade. New York promoted Omar Minaya, Jim Duquette and Gary LaRocque instead, and Zduriencik headed to the Brewers. Sherman also takes the Mets offseason to task in this piece.
- FoxSports.com's Jon Morosi is reporting that despite a 30-day negotiation window closing, the Astros may still be sold. Maury Brown at The Biz of Baseball describes Houston owner Drayton McLane's current position as "make me an offer I can't refuse."
- The Boston Herald's John Tomase discusses the pros and cons of Boston bringing back Josh Beckett.
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wants people to calm down about projection systems. My projection is that people won't.
Odds & Ends: Royals, Red Sox, Astros
Here are some Duraflame logs for the Hot Stove…
- Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reviews the Kansas City offseason, and let's just say he makes "Old Dogs" look like it got raves from the critics by comparison.
- MLB.com's Ian Browne answers questions about the Red Sox, ranging from where contract talks stand with Josh Beckett (spring training is critical) to whether David Ortiz could be traded (not without his consent).
- MLB.com's Brian McTaggart reports that despite the apparent signing of Brett Myers, the Astros still prefer to develop pitchers themselves.
- MLB.com's Mark Bowman addresses whether the Braves have improved their offense, or if position player moves are still to come, in his latest Inbox column.
Gammons On Bay, Holliday, Gonzalez, Cabrera
Yesterday, Peter Gammons appeared in-studio on WEEI with Dale & Holley to talk about the state of the offseason in Boston. Here are some notes from his hour-long chat…
- It's unlikely that the BoSox will be able to bring back Jason Bay, as they already made him the best offer that he has received.
- Gammons quips that Bay would "rather play in Beirut than Queens" and adds that he should have taken Boston's offer of $60MM over four years back in July.
- As for the Mets, if they are unable to land Bay, Gammons doesn't see them adding anybody else of a similar caliber. With their unwillingness to go over the luxury tax threshold, they are more likely to pocket the money to make a mid-season deal.
- Gammons calls Scott Boras "brilliant," but questions his wisdom in turning down the five-year $82.5MM offer the Red Sox made Matt Holliday. That could be the best offer he has seen so far.
- While we have heard rumors of an Adrian Gonzalez-to-Boston swap for months, the two sides have yet to exchange names. Gammons says it would be virtually impossible for the Padres to deal him before July.
- Miguel Cabrera could become available if the Tigers stumble out of the gate. If he is available, Boston would be interested, despite concerns about him off-the-field.
- Gammons expects Josh Beckett to be the second most-coveted free agent on the market next winter, behind Cliff Lee. Naturally, a healthy season would go a long way towards boosting his value.
- After reading the post here on MLBTradeRumors about Frank Wren saying that the Braves were going to get a major bat, he was surprised to later find out that the slugger was Troy Glaus. Trading Javier Vazquez and Rafael Soriano was about saving $16MM, not about the players they received.
Red Sox Notes: Lackey, Beckett, Payroll
John Lackey's five-year, $82.5MM contract with the Red Sox was officially announced today. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets the details: the frontloaded deal pays a $3.5MM signing bonus, $18MM in 2010, and $15.25MM in each of the next four seasons. On to some Lackey-related links…
- WEEI's Rob Bradford has a transcript of the press conference. Sox GM Theo Epstein said he was surprised Lackey was interested in coming to Boston. Lackey said he had negotiations with more than two teams.
- In another post, Bradford relays a quote from Epstein saying that the GM texted Josh Beckett to tell the pitcher he's still a huge part of the team's future. Beckett is eligible for free agency after the season. Will he have a huge contract year?
- WEEI's Alex Speier says Boston's payroll is at an all-time franchise high and projects to be just under the $170MM luxury tax threshold. Once they get over $170MM there is a 22.5% penalty.
Red Sox, John Lackey Reach Agreement
10:28pm: Ian Browne confirms that the Red Sox have an 11:30am ET press conference scheduled tomorrow to announce the Cameron signing and a second press conference at 1:30pm ET to announce the Lackey signing.
5:10pm: Mike Silverman of the Boston Herald says "no finality" on Lackey's deal tonight but the Red Sox have two press conferences scheduled for tomorrow presumably to announce the deals for Lackey and Mike Cameron.
4:52pm: The two sides are in the final stages of the agreement, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. They're working out the language of the contract, which will protect the Red Sox against a pre-existing medical condition.
2:48pm: Scratch that. Olney now says it's for $82.5MM over five years, just like the A.J. Burnett deal. There are no extras or incentives involved.
TUESDAY, 2:15pm: ESPN.com's Buster Olney says the deal's worth $87.5MM.
MONDAY, 2:55pm: Heyman says the Red Sox and Lackey are in agreement in a five-year, $85MM deal.
1:41pm: Yahoo's Tim Brown has an Angels source who believes they're still in the running for Lackey and the pitcher has not accepted a Boston offer. Still, SI's Jon Heyman heard a five-year, approximately $85MM figure for a Boston deal.
1:03pm: ESPN's Jerry Crasnick has a source saying an agreement is "not likely" by the end of the day.
11:52am: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says Lackey had a physical today with the Red Sox, which is "an indication that he is close to an agreement with the team." Rosenthal expects the deal to be in the range of A.J. Burnett's five-year, $82.5MM contract, yet the FOX reporter is unsure the Sox would guarantee five years. If the Red Sox complete a deal with Lackey, the Angels would get Boston's #29 draft pick and the Blue Jays would be bumped to #67 or worse for Marco Scutaro.
Rosenthal also notes that the Red Sox are trying to sign Josh Beckett to an extension. Beckett, 30 in May, is up for free agency after the 2010 season.
10:47am: AOL FanHouse's Ed Price heard from a source that John Lackey will take a physical with the Red Sox. Price says he is "working to confirm" the rumor, but he found it Twitter-worthy.
Gammons On Bay, Beltre, Red Sox
Peter Gammons' departure from ESPN has become a story in itself during this busy off-season, and Gammons' media rounds continued today as a guest on the WEEI Sports Radio Network's Big Show. A full transcript is available here, but here are some of the hot stove items that Gammons had to share….
- Gammons said that Jason Bay "does not want to play in San Francisco, pure and simple," in spite of the fact that the Giants would be willing to offer Bay the five-year contract that he is apparently seeking.
- The Angels won't be players in the Bay sweepstakes, as Gammons predicted they will instead spend their money to re-sign John Lackey.
- Gammons thinks the Mariners might still make an offer to retain Adrian Beltre, though such a move might create some issues with the newly-signed Chone Figgins, who came to Seattle under the impression that he would be the new third baseman. Gammons reported that Beltre "hates" Safeco Field.
- Given Roy Halladay's injury history, Gammons said "it would be a disaster" for Boston to trade Casey Kelly and Clay Buchholz for Halladay and sign the Toronto ace to a long-term contract.
- If the Red Sox don't end up with either Bay or Matt Holliday, Gammons opined that Boston could pursue a defense-first strategy for a season by signing Mike Cameron and Xavier Nady. Or, Boston could just save their money now and stand pat until mid-season before making any trades.
- Even if the Red Sox add another big-money starter, the team would like to keep Josh Beckett because of the leadership he provides to the younger pitchers.
- Speaking of clubhouse leadership, Gammons said that Marco Scutaro's ability to mentor Jose Iglesias was a factor in Boston signing the former Blue Jays shortstop. Another reason was that Scutaro had a clean bill of health, unlike Mark DeRosa, who Gammons said the Red Sox were "a little bit cautious" on signing due to his wrist problems last season.