Rangers Will Discuss Extension With Hamilton
Rangers GM Jon Daniels says the club has already had internal discussions about extending Josh Hamilton and, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas, the team will contact Hamilton's agent to discuss a long term deal this offseason. Hamilton, who was named AL MVP yesterday, says he intends to stay out of the negotiations.
Even before he won the MVP award, Hamilton was in position to command a substantial raise. He earned $3.25MM in 2010, his first time as an arbitration eligible player. The 29-year-old is still two years away from free agency, but 32% of MLBTR readers said they would not offer him an extension in a recent poll.
NL MVP Joey Votto will discuss a long-term deal with the Reds, Hamilton's former team.
Josh Hamilton Wins AL MVP Award
The Rangers' Josh Hamilton won the American League MVP award today, the BBWAA announced. Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Jose Bautista, Paul Konerko, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, Joe Mauer, Adrian Beltre, and Delmon Young round out the top ten.
Poll: Extending Josh Hamilton
When he’s on the field, Josh Hamilton is one of the best players in the game. Hamilton’s five-tool ability has translated into results for a few seasons now and at 29 he leads the American League in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
But Hamilton, who had completed just one full season in the major leagues before this year, has not played since bruising his ribs in early September. Injuries have prevented Hamilton from playing more regularly throughout his career, so questions about his ability to stay on the field would no doubt contribute to the Rangers’ willingness to guarantee tens of millions of dollars. At this point, Rangers GM Jon Daniels tells Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News that he isn’t worried about extending Hamilton.
"Our only focus as it relates to Josh right now is getting him healthy and back in the lineup," Daniels said. "The contractual stuff will take care of itself."
The Rangers have Hamilton under team control for two seasons after this so they don’t face the same urgency that the Cardinals do with their franchise player. Hamilton won’t cost nearly as much as Albert Pujols, but he’s in a position to demand more than $40MM over four years, no small amount of money. It’s a good problem to have – how would you address it if you were in Daniels’ position?
Would you offer Josh Hamilton a long-term extension?
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Josh Hamilton & Kevin Youkilis
Rangers GM Jon Daniels said earlier in the season that he'd be open to extending Josh Hamilton. Now that the Rangers are under stable ownership and Hamilton is having an MVP-type season, an extension seems like a real possibility. In fact, Tom Verducci of SI.com reported this week that Rangers owner Chuck Greenberg would "love" to sign Hamilton to an extension that buys out at least one season of free agency.
Hamilton, now 29, is under team control through 2012, so he isn't scheduled to hit free agency until he's 31. Contracts in baseball are often about precedent, but it's virtually impossible to find comparable players to Hamilton, a first-overall draft choice who struggled with off-field issues and injuries before breaking out as an elite player in his late twenties. But as Verducci points out, Kevin Youkilis' extension could become something of a model for a possible Hamilton deal.
The comparison is far from perfect, of course. Hamilton plays in the outfield, whereas Youkilis is a corner infielder. Hamilton has a spottier injury history, walks less frequently and steals bases more efficiently, but the two players do have much in common.
Both are skilled defenders, late bloomers and power hitters. As the chart below shows, Youkilis had similar numbers through 2008 to the ones Hamilton has now. Youkilis, who finished third in the 2008 MVP voting then had two years remaining before free agency, just like Hamilton will after the 2010 season.
Though MLBTR generally ignores players' RBI and runs totals, those stats can figure into arbitration hearings, so we've included them here.
Hamilton still has two months to add to his numbers before he goes to arbitration or talks extension with the Rangers, but Youkilis turned his numbers into a four-year $41.125MM deal. Ryan Howard (2006 MVP) and Tim Lincecum (2008-09 Cy Young) turned major awards into record-setting salaries through arbitration, so Hamilton could look for a massive raise through arbitration this winter. But if he and the Rangers talk extension instead of going to arbitration, Hamilton can point to his 2010 season and Youkilis' extension and ask for more than $41.25MM over four years.
Odds & Ends: Hamilton, Rangers, Moyer, Wilson
As Alex Rodriguez takes a step closer to the 600-homer club, here are some news items…
- Barry Shlachter of the Star-Telegram reports on Nolan Ryan's testimony about the Rangers' money problems. The most notable item from Ryan's testimony was that Texas may not be able to afford Josh Hamilton's inevitable arbitration raise this winter. This seems hard to believe, since you'd figure that Texas would cut corners anywhere else to find the money to pay Hamilton or to negotiate a long-term deal with their star.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com tweets that the Rangers have excess pitching and could make Scott Feldman and/or Rich Harden available in a trade.
- Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes that Jamie Moyer's recent elbow injury might end the 47-year-old's amazing career.
- The Cardinals feel more confident about their chances of signing draft pick Austin Wilson after the 12th-round selection and his family visited Busch Stadium, reports Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The highly-regarded Wilson has a full scholarship waiting for him at Stanford and thus the Cards' selection was thought to be a longshot.
- Tom Krasovic of the Inside The Padres blog writes that the Friars are looking for "a hitter adept at reaching base against right-handers."
- Holden Kushner of CSNWashington.com examines a potential Adam Dunn deal against the situation the Nationals faced in 2005 when they didn't trade Alfonso Soriano.
- Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com discusses some Indians prospects and more in a fan mailbag.
- David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune thinks the White Sox should resist the urge to trade Gordon Beckham for a rent-a-player. Haugh proposes that the Sox should instead offer up Bobby Jenks, whose closing job is up in the air.
Daniels On Rodriguez, Cruz, Hamilton, Benoit
Rangers GM Jon Daniels told fans that the Rangers will explore ways to add difference-makers this summer and are prepared to trade some prospects in the right situation. Daniels made some more hot stove-related comments while chatting at the Dallas Morning News today – here they are:
- The Rangers didn't want to offer Ivan Rodriguez or any other available catcher a two-year deal last winter and they're content with their decision.
- They're reportedly interested in catchers, but don't have a timetable for bringing Jarrod Saltalamacchia back.
- The Rangers look for upside and makeup in players they draft, regardless of the player's level.
- Daniels is in favor of trading draft picks since it would give teams flexibility.
- Daniels wouldn't rule out signing Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton to extensions.
- It was just time for [Joaquin Benoit] to move on."
Stark On Padres, Jose Guillen, Derrek Lee
ESPN's Jayson Stark kicks off today's column with a look at which teams' starts he considers reality and illusion. Beyond that, a look at his hot stove rumblings…
- One club official who "felt out" the Padres over the winter believes they'll hold on to their top players if they're in contention in July. As Stark says, the market would look a lot worse without Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell.
- Stark names six sluggers who "might be in play" this summer: Josh Hamilton, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Rick Ankiel, Paul Konerko, and Manny Ramirez. Hamilton and Manny are longer shots, but they'd certainly get the hot stove burning.
- As for Jose Guillen – executives Stark talked to just aren't interested, despite his .377/.406/.738 start.
- In search of new stadiums, where could the Rays and A's legitimately threaten to move? Stark and his sources run through ideas and can't find a viable city.
- A friend of Cal Ripken's tells Stark "there's a lot of mutual respect" between Ripken and Orioles owner Peter Angelos. Ripken seeks a difference-making job, rather than just a title. It doesn't necessarily have to be with the Orioles.
- The Cubs told Derrek Lee's agent Casey Close they'd prefer to let the season play out before talking extension. Lee discussed the situation during Spring Training.
- Stark's sources consider Brett Anderson's four-year, $12.5MM deal a very team-friendly contract. To the A's credit, most young pitchers are not willing to give two club options. Playing devil's advocate – did the potential cost savings justify committing four years to Anderson after just one year of service? You can find multiple clubs that do not share Oakland's enthusiasm for locking up good young pitchers.
State Of The Trade: Volquez For Hamilton
It is a useful exercise to take a look back at trades that were made, to help evaluate exactly how they are going for both teams. With the news of Edinson Volquez receiving a 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, now seems like a good time to evaluate the deal that sent Volquez and Danny Herrera from Texas to Cincinnati in exchange for Josh Hamilton.
As Tim pointed out earlier this afternoon, the suspension itself does very little to impact Volquez's value to the Reds. His 50-game suspension begins tomorrow, with Volquez on the DL. He had Tommy John Surgery on August 3, 2009, so even the most optimistic projections wouldn't have had him back before the 50 games is up.
As to who is ahead in this deal, it is hard to say. Both Hamilton and Volquez have had one fantastic season with their post-trade teams. Hamilton posted a .304/.371/.530 line with Texas in 2008 during his age-27 season. Volquez, during that same season, put up a 17-6, 3.21 ERA line in his age-24 season.
By Baseball Prospectus' Wins Above Replacement Player, Volquez was worth 5.3 WARP in 2008, Hamilton checking in at 5.5. As per Fangraphs.com's WAR, Volquez was slightly ahead, 4.3 to 4.1. Both had injury-marred 2009 seasons, and have posted roughly equivalent value for their two teams so far.
Moving forward, Hamilton is off to a rough start in 2010, at .222/.333/.390 through his first 48 plate appearances. Volquez, of course, won't be able to help Cincinnati until later this season if at all.
With his litany of injuries, it is hard to count on Hamilton to recapture his 2007 form. Volquez is coming back from Tommy John surgery, a fairly common occurrence. Volquez is also significantly younger; Hamilton turns 29 on May 21, Volquez turns just 27 on July 3. However, projecting pitchers is almost always harder than projecting hitters.
This challenge trade seems too close to call right now, but Volquez seems likelier to regain elite player status. More money, however, is due to Hamilton. He earns $3.25MM in 2010, as he was arbitration-eligible this past offseason, while Volquez makes just $445K (and the Reds won't need to pay him for the next 50 games, or roughly a third of that salary).
In the meantime? Danny Herrera keeps on keeping on, following a 3.06 ERA in 61 2/3 innings in 2009 with a strong start in 2010. Just 25, Herrera may be the difference-maker in this deal after all.
Cafardo On Hamilton, Beckett, Jackson, Green
Roy Halladay hopes and expects to pitch in the postseason with the Philadelphia Phillies, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo also notes that the Red Sox made a fair trade proposal for the ex-Jay, but that Toronto needed to be blown away to deal their ace within the division. Here are some of Cafardo's other hot stove notes:
- One National League scout had this to say about the possibility of the Rangers trading Josh Hamilton: "Everybody in Texas denies it, and I don’t know what to base it on, but there’s a feeling the Rangers may do something, and teams want to be ready." A handful of scouts are keeping an eye on the slugger, just in case.
- The Red Sox' extension talks with Josh Beckett have at least been "amicable, if not productive." Like they did with the J.D. Drew and John Lackey contracts, the Sox could attempt to include medical language in their offer to Beckett.
- After being traded out of New York this winter, Austin Jackson feels more comfortable with Detroit, no longer weighed down by comparisons to legendary Yankee outfielders of the past.
- The Red Sox offered Nick Green a minor league contract before he signed with the Dodgers, and now he represents the type of player they need: a backup shortstop. The team is hoping that Bill Hall proves capable of handling the role so that Jed Lowrie can play every day in Triple-A.
Heyman On Adrian, Jeter, Hamilton
SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with a discussion about Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who he feels is likely to be shopped hard at this year's trade deadline. I've noted before that Gonzalez's market should not be limited to big-spending clubs, as he's set to earn just $10.25MM for 2010-11. It's fitting that Heyman believes as many as 10 to 12 teams already inquired, including the Red Sox, Mets, Mariners, and Dodgers. On to Heyman's other rumors…
- Heyman spoke to "two executives from competing teams" who believe Derek Jeter "could ask for a six-year deal." The idea is that a six-year extension would take Jeter to age 42, as Alex Rodriguez's contract does.
- Heyman notes that Josh Hamilton turned down a four-year, $24MM offer from the Rangers last year. The security might've made sense for Hamilton given his injury problems.
- One executive Heyman spoke to believes the availability of decent free agents, perhaps continuing into the season, could reduce trading.