Poll: Grading the Josh Donaldson Trade
Perhaps the most significant trade that took place on the day of the August postseason eligibility trade deadline was the one that sent Josh Donaldson to the Indians. The former AL MVP has endured an injury-plagued season owing to his shoulder and calf, but made it back to the field on a rehab assignment just in time to be put through trade waivers and ultimately sent to Cleveland in exchange for salary relief and a player to be named later.
At the beginning of the 2018 season, it would have seemed unfathomable that the Jays would get so little value as a result of Donaldson’s departure. Few expected them to seriously contend amidst a division that features the Red Sox and Yankees, but if they had been competitive enough to keep Donaldson through season’s end, most would have bet heavily on an outcome in which he’d receive and reject a qualifying offer. That would have netted the Jays a first-round pick had he signed for $50MM or more elsewhere, a scenario that the majority of baseball enthusiasts also would have put money on. And certainly if you’d have told a pundit back in March that Toronto would fall out of competition by late July, they’d have been wondering which team gave up a top prospect in order to acquire him ahead of the non-waiver trade deadline.
The actual outcome was an awful bout of bad fortune for both Donaldson and the Jays, of course. He only stayed on the field enough to accrue 159 plate appearances, and his performance was inconsistent with his track record. Most readers of MLBTR will by now recognize .234/.333/.423 as Donaldson’s batting line so far in 2018, a far cry from the numbers he’d previously put up over the course of his tenure in Canada.
In no small part due to those factors, the receipt of a qualifying offer that once seemed a foregone conclusion for the 33-year-old became a decision clouded with doubt across the industry. The club certainly faced serious risk had they kept the slugger. A full return to form would have made it worth issuing him a one-year contract approaching $20MM, but a poor or even average performance would have forced the Blue Jays with a difficult choice: let their star third baseman walk for nothing or make him an exorbitant offer and thereby risk both a payroll albatross and 2019 roster crunch involving Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Evidently, the Jays decided that the Tribe’s offer to pay $1.3MM of his remaining salary and fork over a young player presented a better alternative to taking such a risk. Reportedly, they’ll receive right-hander Julian Merryweather, who ranked as the club’s 15th-best prospect headed into the season prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. One could certainly argue that Merryweather holds more upside and less risk than a late-first-round pick in next year’s draft, but his recent injury would make that a tough sell.
For that reason, some fans and reporters have chided the Jays for “giving Donaldson away”. That’s not literally the case, as anyone who wanted the three-time All-Star could have simply claimed him on waivers; all 29 rival teams opted to pass on that front). Still, one could look at the scenario as Toronto paying the Indians over $2MM to take Donaldson off their hands (though they’d have to assume that Merryweather has no value).
On the other hand, it’s perhaps a positive thing that the Jays were able to get Donaldson back on the field in time to reap any value at all from him. Though he’s absolutely raked during his rehab assignment in Cleveland, Toronto could have very easily watched Donaldson re-injure himself and thus been criticized by some fans for keeping him through September.
What do you think? How do you rate this trade from the Blue Jays’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)
Grade the Josh Donaldson Trade (Jays Perspective)
-
C 30% (3,093)
-
D 20% (1,992)
-
B 20% (1,984)
-
F 19% (1,976)
-
A 11% (1,110)
Total votes: 10,155
Blue Jays Will Reportedly Acquire Julian Merryweather As PTBNL In Josh Donaldson Trade
The Blue Jays will acquire right-hander Julian Merryweather as the player to be named later in the Josh Donaldson trade, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com tweeted at the time of the deal that Merryweather “was rumored” to eventually be Toronto-bound, while Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweeted more recently that Merryweather “is expected” to eventually be announced as the PTBNL.
An official announcement doesn’t seem likely to happen until after the season. The 26-year-old Merryweather underwent Tommy John surgery during Spring Training and has spent the season on the minor league disabled list. Because he’s not healthy enough to begin a rehab assignment, he won’t be passed through waivers before the end of the season, so it seems that a formal announcement could yet be more than a month away.
Prior to the 2018 season, Baseball America ranked Merryweather 17th among Indians farmhands, praising a fastball that reaches 97 mph with regularity, an above-average but inconsistent changeup and another pair of potentially average breaking pitches (slider, curve).
Merryweather breezed through Double-A last year as a 25-year-old, pitching to a 3.38 ERA with a 52-to-10 K/BB ratio and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate in 50 2/3 innings. He was too homer-prone in a later stint at Triple-A, leading to a 6.58 ERA, but his K/BB numbers and ground-ball tendencies remained strong. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote shortly after his promotion to Triple-A last year that both his changeup and curveball could be plus offerings, calling Merryweather a potential mid-rotation starter.
While the Blue Jays will assuredly exercise caution when working Merryweather back from Tommy John surgery next spring, he’ll give the team an arm that could help either in the bullpen or in the rotation as soon as next summer. And, because Merryweather didn’t spent the 2018 season on the Major League disabled list, he didn’t accrue any MLB service time and will thus remain controllable through at least the 2024 season — if not the 2025 campaign.
That proximity to the Majors, it seems, was enough for the Jays to deem Merryweather a more appealing and more valuable piece than the draft pick they’d have received upon extending a qualifying offer to Donaldson and allowing him to test free agency. (Indeed, GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Arash Madani that the PTBNL is someone the organization considers to be an “exciting upper-level talent.”) It’s also possible, perhaps even likely, that the team simply didn’t feel comfortable making that type of offer to Donaldson on the heels of his injury-ruined season — especially with wunderkind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. waiting in the wings to hold down third base for the foreseeable future.
Reactions To Josh Donaldson Trade
It’s expected that Indians right-hander Julian Merryweather will be the player they eventually send to the Blue Jays to complete this week’s Josh Donaldson trade, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. There’s plenty of time for a resolution here, as the sides have until Jan. 30, 2019, to determine the PTBNL. If it proves to be Merryweather, Toronto will be getting a soon-to-be 27-year-old who does not rank among the Indians’ top 30 prospects at MLB.com right now – likely because he underwent Tommy John surgery in March and hasn’t pitched this season. Merryweather did rank as the Tribe’s 16th-best farmhand at MLB.com after last season.
- Like Merryweather, Donaldson has endured an injury-ravaged 2018. Calf problems have kept the third baseman out since the end of May, and Indians president Chris Antonetti said Sunday that it remains unclear when he’ll debut with his new team (via Davidi). It’s possible the Indians will place Donaldson back on the 10-day disabled list and have him join one of their minor league affiliates for a rehab assignment, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal says (video link). Meanwhile, they’ll prepare third baseman Jose Ramirez to play second base and second baseman Jason Kipnis to head to the outfield. Ramirez – who’s having an MVP-caliber season – does not want to constantly toggle between second and third, per Rosenthal, so Cleveland will have to be certain Donaldson’s healthy before inserting him into its lineup.
- The Blue Jays didn’t commit to trading Donaldson until “late in the day” on Aug. 31, the waiver deadline, general manager Ross Atkins tells Arash Madani of Sportsnet (video link). Asked why the Jays didn’t simply keep Donaldson and issue the pending free agent an ~$18MM qualifying offer after the season, Atkins suggested the player they’ll receive for him is more useful than the pick they’d have gotten had Donaldson rejected the QO. Atkins believes the player’s “an exciting upper-level talent” who will have a near-future impact in the majors.
- Donaldson grew into a leader as a Blue Jay and wanted to sign a long-term pact with the team, but the feeling wasn’t necessarily mutual, John Lott of The Athletic explains (subscription required). While Donaldson and the Jays discussed an extension last offseason, the team’s offer was “significantly” lower than Donaldson’s asking price – particularly with respect to contract length – Lott reports. Still, despite whatever issues he may have had with the franchise, Donaldson didn’t want to be traded, according to Lott.
AL Central Notes: Escobar, Morrison, Robert, Merryweather, Mize
Alcides Escobar returns to the Royals with a not-so-lofty goal in sight, Rustin Dodd writes in a piece for The Athletic. Kansas City’s long-time shortstop wants to finish the season with an on-base percentage above .300 for the first time since the 2014 season. He says that he’s working on “taking a lot of pitches each at-bat” and trying to avoid swinging at bad pitches, both of which seem like obvious things to work on. Escobar owns a career OBP of just .294, and his .272 figure last year was the second-lowest among qualified MLB hitters (Rougned Odor‘s .252 was the lowest, for those keeping track). That .272 mark for “Esky” was the result of drawing just 15 walks, his lowest full-season total ever.
A roundup of some other news items out of the AL Central…
- Recent Twins signee Logan Morrison reportedly suffered a right glute strain while running the bases on Wednesday, according to Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. He was held out of Friday’s game, and is expected to miss today’s matchup as well. However, the injury isn’t considered serious. Minnesota brought the former Tampa Bay first baseman into the fold with a $6.5MM guarantee that includes a vesting option. He hit .246/.353/.516 last season with the Rays while smacking a career-high 38 home runs.
- The White Sox are dealing with a more significant injury. Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribute tweets that farmhand Luis Robert has a moderate thumb sprain. Daryl Van Schouwen provides further details on the situation with his own tweet, adding that GM Rick Hahn expects the young outfielder to be immobilized in a cast for six weeks, and to be held out of game action for ten. Robert hit a phenomenal .310/.491/.536 in Rookie ball last season; Baseball Prospectus ranks him as the South Siders’ fifth best prospect, and number 55 overall.
- Continuing with injury news, Indians prospect Julian Merryweather will officially undergo Tommy John surgery after recently being diagnosed with a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. The right-hander was a fifth-round pick by the Tribe during a 2014 draft in which the club also landed Bradley Zimmer, Triston McKenzie and Bobby Bradley. Merryweather had been solid at all levels of the minors before struggling to a 6.58 ERA across 16 starts at Triple-A Columbus last season, though his 3.89 xFIP suggests he dealt with some unfortunate homer/fly ball luck.
- Auburn right-hander Casey Mize is “the name to watch” for the Tigers as we approach the 2018 June amateur draft, says Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. After skidding to a 68-94 record last season, Detroit owns the number one overall pick in the draft, and as Passan notes, the club loves big college arms. Mize threw a no-hitter last night and was throwing 96 MPH up through the ninth inning. Scouts in attendance say he was throwing a “filthy split” as well.
AL Central Notes: Lynn, Twins, Hahn, Jay, Indians
The Twins‘ recently reported two-year offer to Lance Lynn was for a total of $20MM, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Lynn’s camp considered that offer a “non-starter,” however, according to Berardino. Minnesota remains open to adding a starter on an affordable and relatively short-term pact, Berardino continues, noting that outside of the team’s $100MM+ offer to Yu Darvish, all of their offseason free-agent dealings have been at one- or two-year terms. He adds that the Twins aren’t aggressively pursuing Alex Cobb, and given Lynn’s apparent unwillingness to consider a two-year term, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will ultimately be a landing spot for any of the top three remaining starters. There are still a few intriguing names on the market who could sign shorter-term deals, including John Lackey and Trevor Cahill, though the Twins haven’t been strongly tied to any of them.
More from the division…
- The UCL sprain that landed Jesse Hahn on the 60-day disabled list may not wind up requiring surgery, reports MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. Hahn, acquired by the Royals in the trade that sent Brandon Moss and Ryan Buchter to Oakland, felt a “twinge” in his arm during his last Cactus League outing and will be shut down for “several” weeks. Rather, Hahn will be re-evaluated after his shutdown and could then begin a throwing program. Hahn says he’s actually encountered a similar issue in the past but tried to pitch through it for five to six starts and wound up missing significant time. This time around, he raised the issue immediately.
- Newly signed Royals outfielder Jon Jay spoke with reporters following the announcement of his one-year deal, voicing a willingness to play all over the outfield and, a bit more surprisingly, in the infield as well (link via Maria Torres and Pete Grahoff of the Kansas City Star). “I’m prepared to play all three outfield spots,” said Jay. “And you can sprinkle me in at first base if you need to. For me it’s simple: I’ll be ready to work.” Jay has exactly four innings of professional experience at first base and hasn’t played there since a two-inning appearance with the Cardinals’ Triple-A club back in 2010. With Lucas Duda on board, Jay certainly wouldn’t be viewed as any kind of regular option there, but his willingness to do so is at least of mild interest. Torres and Grahoff note that Jay could log some occasional innings at DH as well to get Jorge Soler and Jorge Bonifacio additional reps in the outfield.
- Indians right-hander Julian Merryweather is also dealing with a sprained UCL in his pitching elbow, reports MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). He’s been shut down from throwing for the time being and is getting a second opinion from renowned surgeon Dr. Keith Meister. Merryweather, 26, made 16 starts and totaled 78 innings for Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate in Columbus last season, though he struggled to an ERA north of 6.00 (thanks in large part to a near-.400 BABIP). That rocky performance notwithstanding, he ranks 16th among Indians prospects, per MLB.com. Merryweather is on the 40-man roster, so if he’s expected to miss significant time, he could eventually land on the 60-day DL and free up a 40-man spot in Cleveland.
Indians Claim Rob Refsnyder, Designate Kyle Crockett & Dylan Baker
The Indians announced today that they’ve claimed infielder/outfielder Rob Refsnyder off waivers from the Blue Jays and designated left-hander Kyle Crockett and Dylan Baker for assignment. Cleveland has also selected the contracts of right-hander Julian Merryweather and infielders Willi Castro, Yu Chang and Eric Stamets. That series of moves fills the Indians’ 40-man roster and leaves the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster at a total of 33 players.
The 26-year-old Refsnyder split the 2017 season between the Yankees (who originally drafted him in 2012) and the Blue Jays but struggled to a composite .170/.247/.216 slash line. While Refsnyder has long turned in intriguing offensive stats in the minors, he’s batted just .233/.306/.311 in 320 big league plate appearances. At one point, Yankees fans hoped that Refsnyder could hold down the team’s second base job in the Majors, but he’s now split his time fairly equally between second, first base and left field in the Majors.
Crockett, 25, was a fourth-round pick back in 2013 and was the first player from that draft class to reach the Majors, debuting in 2014. While he turned in a promising 1.80 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 30 innings that season, he’s struggled to a 4.84 ERA with 8.7 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 in 35 1/3 big league innings since then. To his credit, Crockett has allowed just a minuscule three homers in 65 1/3 MLB innings and has held lefties to a .614 OPS in 167 plate appearances. Righties have knocked him around at a .280/.373/.452 clip, though.
Baker, 25, has scarcely pitched since the 2015 season due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery. The 2012 fifth-rounder has tossed just 21 1/3 innings across three levels in the past three minor league seasons combined, though he’s posted a 3.58 ERA in 241 2/3 innings in his minor league career when healthy.
Chang (No. 4), Castro (No. 9) and Merryweather (No. 12) each ranked within the Indians’ top 30 prospects, according to Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.