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Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

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Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available.

Star Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant enters arbitration for the first time with a compelling case to compete with historical records. The current record for first time eligible players still goes all the way back to Ryan Howard in 2008, who earned $10MM after a 47 home run season that brought his career total to 129 home runs. While that price point is now ten years old, it is still an unbroken record. Buster Posey got close with $8MM, but that is already five years old.

Those two players share something in common with Bryant and no one else: they had received both a Rookie of the Year Award and a Most Valuable Player Award prior to entering arbitration. The only other such player would have been Mike Trout, but he signed a multi-year deal the year before reaching arbitration eligibility. Awards can be a huge part of arbitration hearings, especially for first-time eligible players like this, which immediately explains why Bryant is projected to earn $8.9MM, nearly halfway between Posey and Howard. Joey Votto also had an MVP Award (but no ROY) in 2011 when he received an $8MM salary, but he ended up agreeing to a multi-year deal and did not exchange figures before that, so he is not very useful for our purposes.

When it comes to actual numbers rather than hardware, Bryant has a good case as well. He hit .295/29/73 in his platform year and has amassed .288/94/274 for his career. Howard hit .268/47/136 in his platform, with .291/129/353 in his career. So he would be appear to represent a ceiling if the deal was more recent. That said, Bryant might argue that his case is old enough that it should not act as a ceiling on his earnings.

Posey hit .336/24/103 in his platform year and had .314/46/191 for his career line entering arbitration. The batting average (and the fact that he is a catcher) makes Posey look more favorable, but the fact that Bryant has twice the career home runs might make his case more impressive in a process that leans heavily on home runs. Votto’s numbers are actually somewhat closer though, with a .324/37/113 platfrom and .314/90/298 career. Of course, his multi-year deal limits his usefulness as a comparable.

Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado could serve as floors. Neither had the hardware, and both had relatively similar numbers except for far fewer career home runs when they entered the arb process. Machado had a .286/35/86 platform and a .281/68/215 career, while Arenado had a .287/42/130 platform and a .281/70/243 career. So I would guess that their identical $5MM salaries two years ago are a solid floor for Bryant.

I suspect Posey might actually be the best comparable, despite the fact that he plays a premium defensive position. Adding in salary inflation, his $8MM salary in 2013 puts Bryant around $9.5MM. I suspect he will not break Howard’s record, so this seems pretty believable. The Cubs could easily try to argue for a lower number like Arenado or Machado, but probably will have trouble making that case. However, the team could still try to push Bryant south of Posey’s $8MM. There is a large range of plausible outcomes for a case like this; it would represent a fascinating hearing if it went to a panel.

Draft Notes: Lewis, McKay, Day 2, Gore, Greene, Wright, Beck

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No. 1 overall draft pick Royce Lewis will take his physical with the Twins soon, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. There aren’t expected to be any hangups in negotiations, per Berardino, who notes that the industry expectation is for Lewis to receive a bonus north of Dansby Swanson’s $6.5MM bonus from the 2015 draft. The top pick in the draft came with a slot value of $7.7MM, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote this week that Lewis could sign for around $1MM less than that sum. That’d put his bonus in the $6.5MM to $6.7MM range, saving the Twins anywhere from $1MM to $1.2MM from the slot value. FanRag’s Jon Heyman pegs the expected value at “just a tick over” $6.7MM. Rays top pick Brendan McKay, meanwhile, is expected to sign for somewhere between $7MM and $7.2MM, according to Berardino. That’d be the largest bonus ever given to a college player under the current draft structure, surpassing Kris Bryant’s $6.7MM sum.

More notes on the draft…

  • The Twins “crushed” Day 2 of the draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis opines. Adding high school right-hander Blayne Enlow, a potential first-round talent that dropped due to a strong commitment to LSU, kicked off a day in which Minnesota selected five players that ranked inside MLB.com’s top 200 draft prospects. Enlow, Callis writes, has the best curveball in the draft as well as a fastball that has touched 94 mph and has room to grow as his projectable frame grows. Callis also lauds the White Sox, Dodgers, Red Sox and Brewers for the talent they secured in rounds three through 10. ESPN’s Keith Law agrees that the Twins did quite well to land Enlow with the No. 76 pick and also gives quite a bit of praise to the Athletics, who landed a first-round talent (in his estimation) with the 81st pick by taking shortstop Nick Allen. Law opines that the undersized Allen, who is listed at 5’8″, would’ve been a top 10 pick if he were three inches taller.
  • FanRag’s Jon Heyman provides some insight into the progress being made with the top five picks in the draft. The Padres, according to Heyman, are expected to sign No. 3 overall pick MacKenzie Gore, a high school left-hander, for the full slot value of $6,668,100. Reds top pick Hunter Greene, meanwhile, is expected to sign for a deal “close” to the $7,193,200 slot value of his No. 2 overall selection, per Heyman. (Also of note for Reds fans: Heyman spoke to a rival exec who heaped praise on the Reds’ draft, opining that they “won the draft by far.”) And the Braves look to be going well over slot to sign Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, as Heyman reports that they’re discussing a deal worth close to $7MM, while the No. 5 slot carries a value of $5,707,300. Of course, Wright was long rumored to be a potential No. 1 overall pick, so it stands to reason that he’d come with a fairly sizable price tag.
  • Baseball America’s John Manuel reported yesterday that Stanford right-hander Tristan Beck, a potential first-round talent that missed the 2017 season due to a stress fracture in his lower back, will not sign and plans to head back to Stanford (Twitter link). That didn’t stop the Yankees from drafting him late (29th round), though New York would obviously need to give him a massive bonus in order to convince him to forgo a return to college, as a healthy Beck would do quite well in next year’s draft. The Yankees may not have the leftover money even to make a legitimate effort to sign Beck, though he makes for a nice contingency plan if the team unexpectedly finds itself with some extra pool money to play with.

Heyman’s Latest: Marlins, Rangers, Astros, Buyers, Extension Talks

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The Marlins sale could yet be more wide open, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. It’s still a “fluid” situation, he says, and it might not just involve the Jeter/Bush and Glavine/Romney bidding groups we’ve read so much about. Per Heyman, at least one other possible team — led by Dana Pawlicki of Stonington Capital Partners — is looking into putting together an alternative (or, perhaps, just joining one of those other groups). That said, an agreement of some kind could still happen in short order, says Heyman, perhaps within two weeks.

Heyman also looks at a variety of notable transactional situations from around the game (broken out by National League and American League). Here are some highlights:

  • Among organizations taking an early look at possible upgrades, the Rangers are said to be eyeing rotation help — if not also the addition of a bat. No doubt the loss of Cole Hamels for roughly two months will increase the urgency, though it’s also fair to wonder to what extent the team will end up buying at all. As Heyman and others have noted, if the Rangers’ struggles continue, that could free Texas to dangle Yu Darvish and Jonathan Lucroy at the deadline.
  • The division-rival Astros, meanwhile, are said to still have interest in acquiring a “front-line starter” — not that there’s any reason to believe that could happen before the summer. Of course, Houston has re-discovered its own ace to some extent, with a resurgent Dallas Keuchel looking good thus far. Heyman notes that the southpaw was approached “last winter and spring” about an extension, with the sides seemingly making some progress before talks fizzed. The possible deal would’ve gone beyond Keuchel’s arbitration eligibility, per the report, though there was no consensus on the specifics surrounding a potential club option. Keuchel’s iffy and injury-filled 2016 season presumably quashed any possibility of a revival of the discussions this past winter, though perhaps that could again become a possibility in the future.
  • There are other organizations taking a look around for assistance, though it’s not clear whether any are doing more than eyeing the waiver wire and veterans playing on minors contracts. The Red Sox are looking for rotation help while waiting for David Price, who is said to be nearing a rehab assignment. And the Tigers would like to bolster their beleaguered bullpen. The Diamondbacks will probably wait and see whether they can continue their hot start before deciding how to proceed, but Heyman notes that the club would likely “have some spending money” to work with if additions prove necessary and wise. On the sell side, the White Sox remain willing to deal despite their fairly solid start to the year. But the club isn’t backing down from its offseason asking prices, which is certainly no surprise given its prior stance and the promise of renewed demand at the trade deadline.
  • In addition to kicking around some ideas with Kris Bryant, which didn’t seem to gain much traction, the Cubs held some talks over the winter with catcher Willson Contreras, according to Heyman. It seems that the backstop’s reps weren’t keen on Chicago’s ideas, which would’ve included “multiple options” — no surprise, given that Contreras has just 108 days of MLB service under his belt.
  • Interestingly, Mets shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is said to have raised the possibility of an extension with the ballclub. But there wasn’t any interest on the team’s part, per Heyman, with New York preferring to wait and see how things progress. The club already holds an $8.5MM option ($2MM buyout) over the 31-year-old. While that seems likely to be exercised, with Cabrera perhaps moving to second or third to make way for Amed Rosario, the organization understandably did not wish to make a commitment further into the future.

N.L. Notes: Bellinger, Harvey, d’Arnaud, Bryant

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Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts acknowledged after last night’s game that there’s a chance top prospect Cody Bellinger won’t be optioned back to Triple-A when Joc Pederson is ready to return, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register was among those to report. The 21-year-old has only 32 plate appearances under his belt, but he is batting a robust .345/.406/.655 with three walks to go with five strikeouts. “I think I belong,” said Bellinger. His manager seemingly agreed, praising the youngster and noting that “things can change” when addressing the question whether Bellinger would be sent back as planned. The question remains one of playing time, as the organization no doubt prefers that Bellinger play more or less every day. Unless first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is sent to the DL to rest his forearm or the club decides to reduce the playing time of its existing group of outfielders, that might be difficult for the Dodgers to arrange.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • While Mets players and coaches say Matt Harvey has been on the rebound in terms of his stuff, the results just haven’t been there, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo explores. Both Harvey and manager Terry Collins say they believe the issue is command, especially with his secondary offerings. Whatever the cause, it’s concerning. While Harvey’s average velocity isn’t too far from his typical range, he is managing only a 7.4% swinging-strike rate. That has left him with as many earned runs as strikeouts (5.14 per nine apiece) over his 35 innings this year.
  • Meanwhile, Mets catch Travis d’Arnaud left yesterday’s game when his recent wrist injury “acted up,” in the words of Collins and as DiComo further reports. It’s not immediately clear whether he’ll miss any time; presumably, that’ll depend upon how the joint responds today. The 28-year-old has rebounded somewhat after a rough 2016 season at the plate. Over his 66 plate appearances, he owns a .203/.288/.475 batting line with four home runs and six walks against just 11 strikeouts — and a .182 BABIP that could suggest some misfortune.
  • Though Cubs star Kris Bryant was forced out of last night’s game with a calf issue, it doesn’t sound as if it’s much cause for concern. Bryant told reporters, including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter), that he is very confident of returning to the lineup today. Unsurprisingly, the 25-year-old has continued to rake in his third MLB campaign. Over 122 plate appearances, he’s slashing .291/.393/.553 — a near-exact match for the 2016 batting line that helped him to the NL MVP award.

Kris Bryant May “Just Play It Out” Rather Than Seek Extension

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There was little traction between reigning NL MVP Kris Bryant and the Cubs in their extension talks earlier this winter, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that Bryant doesn’t seem to be in any particular rush to lock up a long-term commitment.

“I guess it’s a little early,” Bryant told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “I still feel super young. I’m still getting used to all of this playing at this level. I’ll listen to whatever they have to say, but I just think that it might be in my best interest to just play it out and see where things go….I’d rather just now focus on baseball and playing and not have any other distractions off the field like that, just because it’ll take away from my play on the field.”

Bryant, of course, has already pulled down a couple of notable paydays in his brief but outstanding professional career.  The 25-year-old signed with the Cubs for a $6.7084 bonus after being drafted second overall in 2013, and he will be paid $1.05MM in 2017, a record sum for a pre-arbitration player.  He will also be in line for a very enriching trip through the arbitration process beginning next winter, as Bryant is a virtual lock for a fourth year of arb eligibility as a Super Two player.

Given that Bryant entered tonight’s action with a .290/.396/.495 slash line over his 111 PA, he looks well on the way to matching or topping his superb numbers from his first two seasons, when he won NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2015 and followed it up with an MVP Award in 2016.  Bryant may well set another arbitration-related record in the offseason by earning the highest amount ever given to a player in his first year of arb-eligibility; Ryan Howard’s $10MM salary from the 2007-08 offseason is the current benchmark.  Barring injury or a significant downturn in performance, Bryant looks to be on pace to bank over $50MM through his four arbitration years before reaching free agency after the 2021 season.

Besides his comments and the lack of a driving financial incentive to sign a multi-year extension, there’s also the fact that Bryant is represented by Scott Boras, whose clients generally end up testing the open market rather than pursuing extensions with their original teams.  Boras recently discussed the Bryant talks, negotiating with Theo Epstein, and his general outlook on extensions in a wide-ranging and fascinating interview with Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci.

From the Cubs’ perspective, obviously they would like to keep one of the game’s best players in the fold, though there is also a case to be made that the Cubs may have no issue with going year-to-year with Bryant.  Extensions that cover arbitration years usually lock in some type of cost certainty for the team, though that is of less import with the Cubs given their payroll capacity.

The Cubs also have such a wealth of talent both on their current roster and in the minor league pipeline that, while losing Bryant would certainly be a blow, Chicago is much better-equipped than most franchises to withstand the loss of a superstar.  Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer could instead focus on extensions with other young stars like Kyle Hendricks, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber or Javier Baez — more urgently, the team will have to address big names like Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis and John Lackey hitting free agency this winter.  With Bryant still under control for four-plus seasons, inking him to an extension isn’t an especially pressing need for the Cubs, and of course quite a bit could change on either side between now and the end of the 2021 season.

Cubs “Got Nowhere” In Offseason Extension Talks With Kris Bryant

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The Cubs made an effort to lock up National League MVP Kris Bryant on a long-term extension this offseason but “got nowhere” in their efforts, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated reports. Verducci notes that the Cubs made efforts to lock up several of their young players, in fact, though they weren’t able to push any of them over the finish line. Chicago’s lone offseason extension was a one-year extension for excellent setup man Pedro Strop — a nice move for the club but not the sort of franchise-altering move that a long-term pact for Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell or any of the team’s other young talents would have been.

Bryant’s agent, Scott Boras, has a reputation for eschewing contract extensions and pushing his clients toward free agency — long-term deals for Carlos Gonzalez with the Rockies and Stephen Strasburg with the Nationals notwithstanding — though he spoke to Verducci at length about that perception and about extensions in general.

“My first rule [on extension offers] is that I tell the player, ‘Do not look at the team as if they’re trying to steal you. They’ve made the decision that is the right decision. The question is, What is the investment worth? What is the value?'” Boras explains to Verducci. In the case of Bryant, Boras adds that he was on the same page with Cubs president of baseball operations in terms of Bryant’s fit on the team but not when it came to appropriately valuing that fit.

Perhaps most interesting in the column is that Boras paints Epstein as somewhat of a tough negotiator. While Boras doesn’t indicate any ill will toward the iconic executive, he suggests to Verducci that there was never much progress when discussing Jacoby Ellsbury during Epstein’s days as GM of the Red Sox, where Ellsbury starred for the first seven seasons of his career. Ellsbury went year-to-year through the arbitration process and ultimately signed with the Yankees on a seven-year, $153MM contract as a free agent.

“Theo does not settle on certain things,” says Boras. “He offers a very limited range. You’ve got to give up an option year, a free agent year and he can move you whenever he wants to move you.”

While it’s hard to argue with the results for Epstein, who in the past 15 years has broken two of the three longest World Series droughts in baseball (World Series wins with the Red Sox in 2004 and 2007 and, of course, with the Cubs last year), those words may nonetheless be discouraging for Cubs fans. That’s due not only to the fact that Boras represents Bryant but also due to the fact that his company represents Russell and Jake Arrieta. The lack of traction in Arrieta extension talks has been an oft-covered topic here at MLBTR, and Boras’ comments certainly don’t paint a promising picture when it comes to securing long-term deals with either Bryant or Russell. While Arrieta is a free agent at the end of the current season, both Bryant and Russell are controllable through the 2021 season.

That leaves ample time for the Cubs to strike a deal with either Bryant or Russell, but arbitration is also looming for each player. Both entered the season just days (or, in Bryant’s case, a singular day) shy of two years of Major League service time, meaning each will be eligible for arbitration as a Super Two player next offseason. And it’s worth noting that it’s almost certainly not an accident that the pair fell just days shy of qualifying for free agency a year earlier, though the Cubs are hardly the only team to leverage the current service time structure in order to delay free agency by a full year.

In Bryant’s case, the NL Rookie of the Year Award and NL MVP that are already under his belt could very well allow him to topple Ryan Howard’s longstanding record of $10MM for a first-time arbitration player. Howard, much like Bryant, had a Rookie of the Year and an MVP on his record when he received that staggering sum. Russell’s earning capacity is understandably lower, though as a shortstop that could hit arbitration with multiple 20-homer seasons already in his back pocket, he should be paid handsomely over his four years of eligibility.

As Verducci suggested in reporting that Indians star Francisco Lindor turned down an extension offer of “around $100 million” within this same column (more on that decision here), the increasingly strong market for top-tier free agents is likely to continue pushing forward the price for extending top-tier young players such as Bryant or Lindor. Verducci points out that the 2018-19 free agent class stands to be headlined by a pair of players (Bryce Harper and Manny Machado) that could sign contracts which eclipse Giancarlo Stanton’s current 13-year, $325MM record and could crack the $400MM barrier. And at this point, with Bryant just a year from reaching what could be a record-setting arbitration payday, I’d imagine that any offer that does not top Stanton would be a non-starter in extension talks.

Boras, unsurprisingly, had plenty to say on the notion of escalating free agent prices as well. After revealing that former client Alex Rodriguez turned down a $120MM extension offer from the Mariners before signing a then-record-setting $240MM contract with the Rangers all the way back in 2001, Boras tells Verducci:

“Rule number one in baseball is that no team has ever gone broke. Rule number two is that there’s never been an owner who didn’t make money when he sold the team. And rule number three is that there are no recessions in baseball.”

Suffice it to say, Verducci’s full column qualifies as a must-read not only for those who follow the Cubs and Indians but for all fans. The column is stuffed with quotes from Boras, other agents and executives about the rapidly escalating valuation of players and provides a good idea of what could be in store for baseball’s financial landscape.

Cubs, Kris Bryant Agree To Record Pre-Arb Deal

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The Cubs have agreed with star third baseman Kris Bryant on a record-setting pre-arbitration salary, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports. Fresh off of a year in which he won the National League’s Most Valuable Player award, Bryant will take home $1.05MM.

Chicago also shared some of its World Series wealth with righty Kyle Hendricks, who’ll earn a hefty $760,500, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hendricks was another key performer for the Cubs, turning in an outstanding campaign that saw him land third in the N.L. Cy Young voting. Larger-than-usual salaries are also on tap for Addison Russell ($644K), Javier Baez ($609K), and Kyle Schwarber ($565,500), per Wittenmyer’s report.

Bryant’s payday doesn’t blow the prior record out of the water, but does land a bit north of Mike Trout’s 2014 salary of $1MM. Recently, standout Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts was renewed at $950K after his own high-quality season. Notably, unlike Trout and Betts, Bryant has yet to achieve his second full year of MLB service — owing to the team’s controversial decision to delay his MLB debut in 2015.

The 25-year-old star will reach arbitration next year, though, as he’ll easy qualify for Super Two status. If he posts anything approaching the numbers from his first two season — including a composite .284/.377/.522 batting line and 65 total home runs — Bryant will earn a massive raise in his first trip through the arb process.

If the sides discuss a larger contract, Trout could again provide a target. His six-year, $144.5MM pact, which replaced the above-noted arb deal in 2014, was the second-largest contract ever given to a 2+ player. Buster Posey still holds the record for that service class at $159MM over eight years. Odds are that the Scott Boras-repped Bryant would be looking for quite a bit more money than either of those two players; certainly, it’s arguable that the market has moved northward since that time, and the Trout contract seems a notable bargain in retrospect for a player of that quality (even given the remaining club control the organization had).

Hendricks, 27, was in the 2+ arb class, but fell well shy of Super Two eligibility. After a solid 2015 effort, he turned one of the most surprising campaigns in the league last year. Over 190 frames, Hendricks worked to a National League-leading 2.13 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. He, too, will be in line for big first-year arb earnings if he can replicate that success.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Cain, Russell, Bryant, Sanchez

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Here’s the latest from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman…

  • The Royals don’t appear to be in extension talks with any of their pending free agents (Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas), Heyman reports, and with no progress, all four are expected to reach free agency after the season.  K.C. hasn’t given up on the idea of re-signing “one or two” of the quartet, with Hosmer seemingly their top priority.  If Hosmer can’t be re-signed, the Royals would then try to bring back “a couple of the others, at least in theory.”
  • Cain reportedly asked for a six-year deal at some point in talks, though there haven’t been any recent discussions between Cain and the Royals.  Cain will be the oldest of the four free agents (he turns 31 in April) and is coming off an injury-plagued season that saw him limited to 103 games due to hamstring and wrist problems.
  • Despite Cain’s rough 2016 season, some sources close to the center fielder “express surprise he’s even still” with the Royals.  Previous reports over the winter linked Cain to such clubs as the Rangers, Mets, Dodgers and Cardinals in trade rumors, and Heyman adds that the Rockies and Nationals also spoke to Kansas City about Cain’s services.  Washington, of course, went on to acquire a younger and more controllable outfield addition in Adam Eaton at a very significant prospect cost.  Colorado’s interest in Cain is rather unusual given that the Rockies were already overloaded with outfielders (Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl and Gerardo Parra) even before signing Ian Desmond and converting him to first base.  Depending on when the talks between Colorado and K.C. took place, the Rockies could’ve considered acquiring Cain and then perhaps converting Gonzalez to first base, rather than signing Desmond.  Blackmon and Gonzalez were also the subject of several trade rumors this winter, so the Rockies could’ve been looking at Cain as a replacement if they’d moved one of their internal pieces.
  • The Cubs and Addison Russell agreed to a one-year, $644K deal for the 2017 season, Heyman reports in a separate piece.  (For specifics on the pre-arbitration process, check out these MLBTR posts from Zach Links in 2014 and Jeff Todd in 2015, respectively.)  The agreement gives Russell a nice bump above the $535K minimum salary, a year before he becomes eligible for salary arbitration.  Russell hit .238/.321/.417 with 21 homers over 598 PA for the World Series champs last season, a below-average offensive performance as per the wRC+ metric (95) that was more than made up for on defense — Russell posted 19 Defensive Runs Saved and a +14.3 UZR/150 over 1262 2/3 innings at shortstop last season.
  • The Cubs are still in talks with Kris Bryant, who is also entering his last pre-arbitration year.  It’s probably no surprise that negotiations with Bryant and his agent Scott Boras are taking a bit longer than usual given Bryant’s outstanding track record over his young career.  Heyman suggests Bryant could approach the record contract given to a pre-arb player (the $1MM between Mike Trout and the Angels prior to the 2014 season).
  • The Yankees agreed to a 2017 contract with catcher Gary Sanchez, Heyman tweets.  Financial terms aren’t known, though Heyman specifies that the two sides reached an agreement and that a renewal wasn’t necessary, which would indicate that Sanchez will also be earning beyond the minimum salary.  Sanchez exploded onto the scene in 2016, hitting .299/.376/.657 with 20 homers over just 229 plate appearances.

Cubs Notes: Heyward, Lackey, Davis, First Base

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports chronicles the intense, in-depth program that Jason Heyward embarked upon this winter in an effort to completely revamp his swing after last year’s career-worst season. The 27-year-old Heyward moved to Phoenix, Ariz. to be nearer to the Cubs’ training facilities. There, he’d work regularly with hitting coach John Mallee, assistant hitting coach Eric Hinske and mental skills coach Darnell McDonald in an effort to effectively rewire his muscle memory. Heyward now bats with his hands considerably lower and more relaxed at the plate, and with his bat more vertical as opposed to wrapped up near his shoulders and neck. Regardless of the outcome, president Theo Epstein was floored by the amount of work Heyward put in this winter.

“I’ve never seen a veteran player work as much as Jason did this winter, let alone right after winning a World Series and having already signed a long-term deal,” Epstein told Rosenthal. “It shows how much he cares, his dedication, his pride and his character. He’s the ultimate pro.”

A few more notes on the reigning World Series champs…

  • John Lackey will pitch the 2017 season at the age of 38, but the veteran right-hander tells Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago that he’s not approaching this year as if it’ll be his last. “I feel great,” Lackey said to Levine. “I am just playing this year. At the end of the year, if I feel good, I will keep playing.” As Levine notes, Lackey did wear down a bit with a shoulder injury late in the 2016 season, but he’s been extremely durable in general since returning from Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2012 campaign. Over the past four seasons, Lackey’s averaged 198 regular-season innings per year, and he’s also tacked on another 62 1/3 total innings in the postseason. All told, he’s averaged 213 combined innings per season on his reconstructed ulnar collateral ligament.
  • New Cubs closer Wade Davis tells MLB.com’s Richard Justice that he wasn’t anticipating a trade this winter. The right-hander called the trade “a little bit of a shock” but said his transition has been eased by already knowing manager Joe Maddon and bench coach Dave Martinez from his time with the Rays. Justice spoke to Maddon and Davis’ former teammate, Eric Hosmer, about the right-hander’s successful move from the rotation to the bullpen and the demeanor that made the switch possible.
  • Anthony Rizzo was out of today’s Cactus League game with a slight bit of back stiffness, which prompted reporters to ask Maddon who the backup first baseman would be during the regular season (video link via ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers). Maddon first noted Javier Baez as an option and also added that Kris Bryant could once again see some time at first base in 2017. The skipper added that catcher Willson Contreras could be a third option, but said that Baez and Bryant would be the primary reserves. Asked specifically about Kyle Schwarber playing first base, Maddon suggested that while the slugger “probably could” learn the craft, it’s not something that’s been worked on and isn’t much of an option in 2017.

Mike Trout, Kris Bryant Win MVP Awards

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Mike Trout of the Angels and Kris Bryant of the Cubs won the most valuable player awards in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced tonight.

If Trout’s win is a surprise, it’s only because many wondered of the impact of the fact that his team wasn’t in contention. Looking only at his numbers, the case was rather clear, and he got 19 of 30 first-place votes. It may have been only a typical season for Trout, but a .315/.441/.550 batting line, 29 home runs, and 30 steals (combined with outstanding baserunning and quality defense in center) represented the best all-around output in baseball. This is his second MVP, and the fifth consecutive year he has finished in the top two of the voting.

Mookie Betts was the other top contender for the American League prize, and he was Trout’s equal in most offensive areas excepting OBP (.363), but his context-adjusted output wasn’t anywhere near as good (171 wRC+ for Trout, 135 for Betts). That said, Betts was every bit as good on the bases, and graded better defensively, but still finished over 1 WAR behind. He received nine first-place votes. Star Astros second baseman Jose Altuve came in third in the race.

On the National League side, it was long apparent that Bryant would win. He very nearly did so unanimously, but second-place finisher Daniel Murphy garnered one top nod. In just his second season in the majors, Bryant blasted 39 home runs, put up a 149 wRC+, and made a difference with his glove and legs. That he was the best player on the best team in the game surely didn’t hurt.

It was a truly great campaign for the Nationals’ Murphy, too, who slightly topped Bryant in overall offensive production (156 wRC+) but wasn’t nearly as good in the other areas of the game. Corey Seager of the Dodgers, who took the Rookie of the Year award, finished an impressive third.

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