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NL Central Notes: Arrieta, Bryant, Walsh, Pirates

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Jake Arrieta has drawn plenty of attention of late as he’s continued to generate phenomenal results for the Cubs. He’s maintained all along both that he hopes to remain in Chicago and that he won’t take a discount to do so, and it’s still not clear whether the club will be willing to offer what Arrieta considers fair market value. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney argues in an Insider piece that the Cubs are unlikely to go beyond the recent Stephen Strasburg extension, and won’t pursue a bidding war to bring back Arrieta when he reaches free agency after next season. Then, says Olney, he’ll have a chance to cash in, particularly since he’d enter an “incredibly weak market” for starting pitching. That’s a debatable assessment of the free agent class — among the potentially available arms are Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb, Johnny Cueto, Tyson Ross, Lance Lynn, and several others of interest — but there’s little doubt that Arrieta would be a major target if he can keep up anything approaching his recent performance level.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • Kris Bryant has kept on producing for the Cubs after a stellar rookie campaign, but as August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs explains, he’s dong it differently. Bryant has worked to flatten his swing plane as a way to cut down on his swings and misses, with very promising results. Though he’s more or less hitting at the same levels he did in 2015, Bryant’s managed to reduce his strikeout rate by one-third thus far. As Fagerstrom explains, the biggest impact of the adjustment may be that it raises Bryant’s floor as a hitter.
  • The Brewers made some roster moves today, with Scooter Gennett activated from the DL and fellow infielder Yadiel Rivera being optioned to Triple-A. As Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel notes (Twitter links), the decision shows the team’s commitment to struggling Rule 5 pick Colin Walsh. He has an unusual .098/.327/.122 slash line through 55 plate appearances, with 13 walks but just four hits. GM David Stearns would say only that “the evaluation process is ongoing” with respect to Walsh, who obviously will need to stay on the active roster all year if his control rights are to remain Milwaukee property.
  • In a reader mailbag, Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette explains the Super Two considerations facing the Pirates. Early to mid June remains the time to watch for exciting Triple-A starters Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon, he writes. Interestingly, Nesbitt predicts that Taillon is likely to get the first call, explaining that he’s the “more seasoned” of the two even though he has been away from competitive baseball for some time due to injury.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Bryant, Arrieta, Jungmann

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The Pirates announced on Friday that they have extended their entire coaching staff through the 2017 season. The club did not announce a new contract for skipper Clint Hurdle, though Hurdle was already signed through the 2017 season himself, whereas the coaches’ contracts ran through the end of the current campaign. The new contracts mean that bench coach Dave Jauss, pitching coach Ray Searage, hitting coach Jeff Branson, third base coach Rick Sofield, first base coach Nick Leyva, bullpen coach Euclides Rojas, assistant hitting coach Jeff Livesey and bullpen catcher Heberto Andrade will all return for another season. Searage, in particular, has become particularly notable in the national media due to Pittsburgh’s success in rehabilitating pitchers that have endured recent struggles (though the Bucs did lose noted pitching specialist Jim Benedict to the Marlins’ front office this past winter).

A few more notes out of the NL Central…

  • Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant underwent an MRI this morning which confirmed that his right ankle sprain is mild in nature, writes MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. Bryant is out of the lineup today in favor of Javier Baez and may miss a few games, tweets Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, but the reigning National League Rookie of the Year isn’t expected to require a trip to the disabled list and should be back in relatively short order. Obviously, that’s good news for a Cubs team that has already lost Kyle Schwarber for the season and had to place catcher Miguel Montero on the 15-day disabled list yesterday.
  • As we’ve heard recently, the Cubs and ace Jake Arrieta remain far apart in extension talks. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) says that Arrieta remains focused on securing a seven-year deal, as was the case back in Spring Training, but the team is currently only comfortable with offering the reigning Cy Young winner a four-year extension. That type of deal would run through Arrieta’s age-34 season, whereas Arrieta’s preferred contract length would extend into his age-37 campaign. Dominant as he may be, it’s understandable that the Cubs are hesitant to guarantee both Arrieta such a substantial amount through age 37, especially considering the fact that with free agency about 18 months away and a huge salary already in the bank, Arrieta and agent Scott Boras probably don’t feel the need to offer a considerable discount in terms of average annual value. Beyond that, the Cubs are already paying Jon Lester into his age-36 season, and promising that type of cash to a pair of pitchers into their late 30s is wrought with risk for the team.
  • Though he started the Brewers’ third game of the season, right-hander Taylor Jungmann was optioned to Triple-A by Milwaukee today, the team announced. The 26-year-old made a very strong debut in 2015, logging 119 1/3 innings with a 3.77 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate, but he’s struggled tremendously in 2016. Thus far, Jungmann has yielded 21 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings, and he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out (13). His velocity is also down two and a half miles per hour from last season. The Brewers called up reliever David Goforth in the interim, but they’ll need to make a move to add another starter in advance of Jungmann’s next would-be turn in the rotation, which would come on Tuesday. As MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy points out (on Twitter), Jungmann now faces the unenviable task of attempting to find the solution to his struggles in one of the game’s least-favorable pitching environments: Colorado Springs.

Chicago Notes: Sox, CarGo, Cubs, Fowler

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The White Sox have long been connected to both free agents and trade targets that can help the club in the corner outfield, and Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score writes that the Sox aren’t done searching for upgrades. The Sox could turn their focus to Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez and Reds right fielder Jay Bruce, per Levine, though his report makes no indication that there have been trade discussions about either player. One rival general manager told Levine that the Rockies asked for his top two minor leaguers, plus a big league player and absorption of most of the remaining $37MM on Gonzalez’s contract. Of course, that’s a highly subjective statement; for instance, the top two minor leaguers for a club like the Angels — a team that has been linked to outfield trade targets — would be considerably less valuable than the top two minor leaguers for a club like the Rays or Cardinals, each of which was linked to outfield trade targets this winter as well. What’s clear from the anonymous GM quoted by Levine is that the Rockies’ asking price would be steep, and the team seemingly doesn’t have much interest in eating salary on the deal.

A bit more on Chicago’s two clubs…

  • The Cubs finalized contracts with all of their pre-arbitration players today, the club announced, and the Sun-Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer notes that the pre-arb agreements should take the Cubs’ payroll north of $150MM for the first time. While the team presently sits just shy of that mark at $149.232MM, awarding the final roster spot to a player like Rex Brothers or Shane Victorino, who have base salaries of $1.42MM and $1MM, respectively, would push the Cubs beyond that milestone. Somewhat notably, Wittenmyer points out that reigning Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant was renewed for a healthy $652K — a considerably larger sum than most pre-arbitration players (especially players with less than a year of service) would receive.
  • While Bryant and his pre-arb peers were forced to take whatever the Cubs decided to give them, others have reportedly chosen to come to Chicago despite receiving similar or greater offers elsewhere. Jesse Sanchez of ESPNChicago.com says that held true of Dexter Fowler, who rejected offers from multiple other clubs “for multiple years and more money.” While the magnitude of the contract discounts in some Cubs’ free agent contracts seem to have been somewhat overplayed — indeed, in some cases, factors such as length and the presence of opt-outs in alternative offers make it unclear whether there was a true discount at all — this report certainly suggests that Fowler had plenty of opportunities to earn a good bit more elsewhere. “You create the right culture,” said manager Joe Maddon, “you would get guys wanting to stay with you longer, irrespective of money.”

Kris Bryant, Maikel Franco File Service Time Grievances

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A pair of outstanding rookie third basemen, Kris Bryant of the Cubs and Maikel Franco of the Phillis, have filed grievances claiming that their service time was manipulated in an effort to delay their future entry onto the free agent market, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports.

No shortage of attention will be paid to these cases. Bryant, of course, won the National League’s Rookie of the Year award, while Franco might have staked his own claim to that title had he not been injured late in the year. In that regard, then, the stakes are high for the players and teams; if a panel were to award additional service time, both would stand to qualify one year earlier for free agency.

Most important of all, however is the heightened relevance of the matter with collective bargaining talks set to begin in earnest. The matter of whether, when, and why top young players are brought up to the majors — and thus begin accruing credit for time spent on an active MLB roster — has long seemed an area ripe for consideration (if not acrimony) between the league and the player’s association.

For those unfamiliar with how things work, teams have a powerful incentive to hold back talented young players — even those they believe to be ready for the majors — to slow their march towards free agency. A less powerful, but also relevant incentive exists to keep a player down long enough to prevent them from qualifying for “Super Two” arbitration status.

A player only accrues a full season of MLB service when he reaches 172 days on the active roster (that includes off days), and it takes six full seasons of service time to reach free agency. As a practical matter, then, teams can milk nearly seven years of control over players if they just keep them in the minors for a few weeks at the start of the year.

Indeed, that’s exactly what happened with Bryant and Franco, who accrued 171 and 170 days of service last year, respectively. While there were surely legitimate baseball reasons that also supported the decisions to start those players in the minors, it’s not hard to see what line of argument their agents will pursue.

Of course, many such matters are resolved before they get to a hearing, though in these cases it would seem a creative arrangement would be necessary. It will be most interesting to see how things proceed between the larger entities with stakes in the pair of disputes: MLB and the MLBPA. The sides have about a year to negotiate a new CBA, and the service-time issue presents not only a point of possible contention, but also rather a tricky problem to solve in practice even if agreement on a general direction can be found. While bargaining could certainly override any precedent struck in a hypothetical grievance, a victory in front of an arbitration panel would transfer leverage to one side or the other.

Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa Win Rookie Of The Year Awards

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Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Astros shortstop Carlos Correa have been named Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues by the Baseball Writers Association of America.

Bryant won the award in unanimous fashion, beating out second-place finisher Matt Duffy of the Giants. Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang, Noah Syndergaard of the Mets and Justin Bour of the Marlins finished third through fifth, with each player garnering multiple points in the voting. The Dodgers’ Joc Pederson and Cardinals’ Stephen Piscotty each received a third-place vote, earning each one point.

Bryant, 23, entered the year with considerable hype after decimating Triple-A pitching in 2014. There was some outrage when it was announced that he’d begin the season in the minor leaguers, but he was quickly promoted to the Majors (uncoincidentally as soon as his free agency had been delayed by one year) and quickly established himself as one of the premier third basemen in the game. Bryant batted .275/.369/.488 with 26 home runs and 13 stolen bases this season while also delivering strong defense at third base and even contributing in the outfield.

The race in the American League was much closer, with Correa narrowly edging out fellow shortstop Francisco Lindor. Correa received 17 first-place votes and 13 second-place votes, whereas Lindor received 13 first-place votes and 14 second-place votes. Trailing the two were young Twins slugger Miguel Sano, Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna, A’s center fielder Billy Burns, Twins left fielder Eddie Rosario and Rangers center fielder Delino DeShields Jr.

Correa batted an impressive .279/.345/.512 with 22 homers and 14 steals. Wins above replacement measures liked Lindor better for the award due to his superior glove and on-base percentage, but Correa slugged 10 more homers and knocked in more runs, likely widening the gap in the eyes of many voters. Most pundits agreed that either would be a fine choice for the award given the exceptional seasons enjoyed by each.

Rosenthal On Freeman, Padres, Kemp, Cubs

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This afternoon, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports released a news-filled column with rumblings from around the league.  The whole article is worth a read, but here’s a look at some of the highlights:

  • The Braves are shopping first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to officials from three different clubs that have spoken with Rosenthal.  One of Rosenthal’s sources added that the possibility of Freeman getting traded was “the talk of the [Arizona] Fall League” among scouts earlier this month.  Freeman’s salary is set to rise from $12MM in 2016 to $20.5MM in ’17 and the Braves might not want to pay out those salaries as they look to rebuild.  After trading shortstop Andrelton Simmons, it’s clear that the Braves are not too fearful of the fan backlash that comes from trading star players.
  • Another official asserts that the Braves are “shopping everyone owed money.”  That could mean that the likes of right-hander Julio Teheran, right fielder Nick Markakis, and center fielder Cameron Maybin are for sale.  Earlier today, we learned that some folks within the Orioles organization would be open to a reunion with Markakis.  After a down year, Teheran’s value isn’t as high as that of Simmons, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently wrote that there’s a “good chance” that he would be made available.
  • Sources tell Rosenthal that the Braves “are talking to a number of…non-compensation free agents, including some veteran relievers.”  Ultimately, Rosenthal writes, it’s hard to tell what the Braves’ goal is in 2016.  In the end, the gameplan might be to sell off Freeman and Teheran, land even more prospects, and land a top choice in the 2017 draft.
  • The Padres are shopping right-hander Tyson Ross and outfielder Matt Kemp, major league sources tell Rosenthal.  Kemp is owed $86MM over the next four years and Rosenthal wonders aloud if the two players could be packaged together in order to facilitate a deal.  Ross, 29 in April, is under club control for two more seasons.  In 2015, he pitched to a 3.26 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 across 33 starts.  Kemp, meanwhile, posted a .265/.312/.443 slash line that was below his career average with 23 homers in 2015 while playing poor defensively.
  • Sources say that the Cubs will “at least explore” the trade interest they are getting in right fielder Jorge Soler and infielder Javier Baez, Rosenthal writes.  Meanwhile, the Cubs do not intend to move third baseman Kris Bryant, shortstop Addison Russell or left fielder Kyle Schwarber.  If the Cubs were to move Soler or Baez, they would likely seek their pitching equivalent, meaning a player with similar service time and talent that’s roughly the same age.
  • The Rays are getting bites on relievers Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger, particularly after the Craig Kimbrel deal, according to sources.  Furthermore, teams are also zeroing in on Rays starters.

NL Central Links: Lopez, Price, Ricketts, Bryant

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Right-hander Jorge Lopez will make his Major League debut tonight when he starts for the Brewers, and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy has the story on how Lopez has already dealt with serious adversity on his path to the Show.  Lopez’s two-year-old son, Mikael, has spent much of his life in hospitals since being born prematurely, and doctors still don’t have a clear diagnosis for young Mikael’s health issues.  There has been some recent progress, however, and the family’s medical bills will be partly alleviated by the $40K Lopez will earn for his two-week stint in the bigs.  Lopez was Milwaukee’s second-round draft pick in 2011 and the 22-year-old posted a 2.26 ERA, 2.63 K/BB rate and 8.6 K/9 over 143 1/3 innings at Double-A Biloxi this season.

Here’s some more news from the NL Central…

  • The Reds are considering keeping Bryan Price as manager for 2016, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports.  Price has long been on the hot seat given the Reds’ rough season and a profanity-laden tirade to reporters back in April, though he may keep his job since the Reds were hampered by injuries and trade deadline deals that saw Johnny Cueto, Marlon Byrd and Mike Leake leave town.  Changes could be made to the coaching staff, however, with pitching coach Jeff Pico in particular a candidate to be replaced.  Rosenthal wonders if Price’s future employment could hinge in part on how he reacts if asked to replace some coaches.  No decision will be made on any managerial or coaching changes until after Cincinnati’s season is over.
  • The Cubs’ on-field success and added revenues from attendance and TV ratings doesn’t necessarily mean the team’s payroll will greatly rise, chairman Tom Ricketts told reporters (including CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney) yesterday.  “Theo [Epstein] will have some resources this offseason,” Ricketts said.  “But I don’t know how (much). And I’m not sure he’ll find something he wants to do with ‘em. It’s up to him….Obviously, winning helps the payroll analysis, (but) it’s not about payroll anymore.  The fact is, the correlation between the dollars you spend and the wins you get on the field is going down every single year.  So in order to have sustainable success, you can’t count on money. You have to count on young talent. You’ve seen what we’ve done. We’ve gone out and built the best facilities in baseball. We’ve scouted well. We’ve drafted well. I think we’re developing well.“
  • In another piece from Mooney, he notes that Kris Bryant’s versatility could be a great help to the Cubs in their offseason plans.  The rookie played at four positions (first, third, center field and right field) on Monday night and he’s also played six games in left field this season.  Bryant has an above-average UZR/150 at every position he’s played, though obviously the sample sizes are too limited (except for his 1177 1/3 innings at third base) to declare that he can adequately handle any of these spots around the field.  Still, Mooney opines that Bryant could potentially handle a position like center field on a short-term basis for a year if the Cubs need a bridge between Dexter Fowler and a prospect like Albert Almora.

NL West Notes: Diamondbacks, Gray, Padres, Giants

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The Diamondbacks mismanaged their draft pool, tweets Jim Callis of MLB.com. The club took Dansby Swanson with the first overall pick and inked him at the last possible moment. In doing so, they spent $1.7MM less than their pool allowed. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams tweeted, the club could have spent up to $2.328MM more without losing a future draft pick. While a franchise shouldn’t spend that money just to spend it, they should have a few over-slot picks in the early rounds in order to make the most of limited resources.

  • The Rockies originally planned to promote top prospect Jon Gray for Sunday’s start, but they’ve backed off that decision, writes Nick Groke of the Denver Post. His last outing at Triple-A was a three-inning stinker in which he allowed four runs and six hits. The club will wait for a future opportunity to call upon their top pitching prospect. Eddie Butler will take tomorrow’s start.
  • Former Padres GM Josh Byrnes steadily built the farm system during his tenure with the club, writes Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Now current GM A.J. Preller is being second guessed for his bold decision to dismantle the farm for win-now talent. The club could be one year closer to a more organic revitalization, but now the farm system is shallow. Massive offseason overhauls have a bad track record – ask the Marlins and Blue Jays (and the White Sox). It’s also worth noting that Preller may have wanted to reshape the farm system to his preferences.
  • The Giants have built one of the best infields in the sport, notes Jonah Keri of Grantland. The home grown crew includes several surprising contributors. Brandon Belt was a well-regarded prospect – especially among sabermetric circles. However, Brandon Crawford’s offensive emergence was unexpected. Joe Panik is deceptively well-rounded. Matt Duffy was supposed to back up Casey McGehee. Instead, he’s arguably the best rookie in the National League, a class that includes Kris Bryant and Maikel Franco among others.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Tigers, Yankees, Coghlan

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The Mets appear to be keeping tabs on Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez and shortstop Jean Segura, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in his latest video. Of the two, Ramirez is the more practical target for New York. He is expected to retire after the season and does not have a no-trade clause. The Mets are also interested in Ben Zobrist, but they believe other teams will outbid them.

  • The Tigers may not need to buy at the trade deadline due to the impending returns of Justin Verlander, Victor Martinez, Bruce Rondon, and Alex Avila. The lineup has struggled to push runs across the plate, but they lead the AL in OBP. When asked by Rosenthal, GM Dave Dombrowski said there are no scenarios under which the club could become deadline sellers. That means David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alfredo Simon are unlikely to be traded.
  • The Yankees rotation may not be a priority at the trade deadline if the current starters remain healthy. In addition to the current options, Ivan Nova will begin a rehab assignment soon. Prospects Luis Severino and Bryan Mitchell provide further depth. The club could still acquire a star like Cole Hamels, but GM Brian Cashman says some of their top prospects are untouchable.
  • The easiest position for the Cubs to upgrade is left field. Chris Coghlan is hitting just .224/.298/.421 on the season. An unusually low .245 BABIP explains his low average. The club could hope for BABIP regression or replace him in one of several ways. They could trade for somebody like Zobrist. Alternatively, Javier Baez could be promoted to man third base with Kris Bryant moving to the outfield.

NL Notes: Price, Mets, Cubs, Frias, Upton

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The struggling Reds are hosting this year’s All-Star Game, but the possibility of bad P.R. shouldn’t prevent them from dismissing manager Bryan Price, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Rosenthal notes that owner Bob Castellini likes Price and Jocketty and is wary of an upheaval before the break. But the Reds have played poorly lately, and Price’s occasional bursts of odd behavior (including an infamous profane tirade against the media a few weeks ago) raise questions about whether he’s well suited for the job. The organization has third base coach Jim Riggleman, Triple-A manager Delino DeShields and perhaps roving instructor Barry Larkin as potential replacements. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Mets have lots of talented young pitching and the Cubs have terrific young position players, and MLB.com’s Jim Duquette proposes several trades the two clubs might make. By far the wildest one (and one Duquette fully acknowledges is vanishingly unlikely) is Matt Harvey for Kris Bryant. The Mets and Cubs’ respective fan bases have pinned their hopes heavily on those two players, so such a trade would be nearly impossible, but it’s fun to think about. The sense here is that the Mets would easily be getting the better of such a deal — Bryant’s bat is rare, to put it mildly, and Harvey is three years closer to free agency and probably also more of an injury risk.
  • Carlos Frias’ poor performance Sunday shows why the Dodgers are likely to pursue outside starting pitching help, Anthony Witrado of ESPN Los Angeles writes. Frias gave up ten runs, including two homers, over four innings against the Padres, more than doubling his ERA. Frias did pitch reasonably well in four starts before that, but there’s no doubt the Dodgers’ rotation situation is somewhat uncomfortable, due to injuries to Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy.
  • The Padres haven’t performed as well as they’ve hoped, but Justin Upton has been terrific, and the team needs to do everything it can to keep him, Matt Calkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. The Padres’ new ownership did well to open its wallet last winter, but it must continue to show it’s serious about winning. Of course, keeping Upton won’t be easy to do — Upton currently tops MLBTR’s 2015-2016 Free Agent Power Rankings.
  • Cardinals lefty Marco Gonzales will miss a start with Triple-A Memphis on Monday with pectoral muscle tightness, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com writes. Gonzales dealt with the same injury earlier this season. Gonzales hasn’t yet pitched in the big-leagues this season, but as Langosch points out, he’s a key part of the Cardinals’ rotation depth, especially given Adam Wainwright’s absence.
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