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Free Agent Stock Watch: April 2011 Edition

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We're just four weeks into the season, so prospective free agents still have lots of time to establish their value before hitting the open market. Cliff Lee, who went on to become last offseason's most highly coveted free agent, had made just one start at this point last year. Adrian Beltre also started slowly; he was homerless with a .772 OPS last April before heating up and re-establishing his free agent value.

Other free agents used April as a springboard for standout walk years. Carl Crawford (.941 OPS, 7 steals) and Jayson Werth (.987 OPS) used the first month of the season to establish themselves as top free agents in 2010. With that in mind, here's a look at what ten members of this year's free agent class have done over the course of the first four weeks of the season:

  • Albert Pujols - It took him a few games to heat up, but Pujols has 7 homers, 18 RBI and a .258/.321/.485 line. It's nothing special, but he has been unlucky on balls in play and has hit like his usual self since the middle of the month.
  • C.C. Sabathia - Sabathia can opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his contract after the season and the way he's pitching, he may be able to obtain more guaranteed money that way. Sabathia is putting together another phenomenal season, with a 2.25 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
  • Prince Fielder - Fielder leads the NL with 23 RBI and has a .326/.415/.565 line. Agent Scott Boras figures to be asking for Mark Teixeira money ($180MM) and then some this offseason.
  • Jose Reyes  - Reyes has a robust .321/.359/.459 line with 8 stolen bases and 11 extra base hits. If he keeps this up, could ask for $100MM-plus this winter.
  • Jimmy Rollins - Rollins, 32, has a .271/.346/.354 line so far this season. He's getting on base at a respectable clip, but he has never had a season with a slugging percentage this low. It seems unlikely that Rollins will have another 30 homer season, as his slugging percentage and isolated power have been in decline since 2007.
  • C.J. Wilson - Wilson's 3-0 record and 3.51 ERA look good and he's striking our nearly a batter per inning (8.4 K/9). He has a career-best walk rate so far (2.4 BB/9) after struggling with walks for years.
  • Carlos Beltran - With 3 homers and a .280/.359/.488 line, the 34-year-old Beltran is off to a strong start. Seemingly healthy after two injury-plagued seasons, he is now playing right field (though agent Scott Boras insists he can still handle center).
  • Mark Buehrle - Buehrle, 32, has a 5.12 ERA, but his peripheral stats suggest that his ERA should fall closer to his 3.87 career mark. Buehrle, who averaged 33 starts per year over the course of the last decade, leads the league with six starts in 2011.
  • Jonathan Papelbon - Elite relief pitching is arguably the biggest strength of the upcoming free agent class, so it remains to be seen whether Papelbon will have much leverage this winter. He's off to an excellent start, with 5 saves, a 1.93 ERA, 11.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.
  • Heath Bell - Bell would like to stay in San Diego, but the Padres may not be able to afford him. If he keeps pitching like this – 0.90 ERA, 5 saves, 6.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 – someone else will be happy to pay for his services. His strikeout rate has dipped, but it's early.

Note that I haven't included Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and others whose teams could exercise options for 2012.

Rosenthal On Fielder, Putz, Reyes

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The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

  • Rosenthal discussed Prince Fielder in his Full Count video on Saturday and has a bit more today.  The FOX writer spoke to agent Scott Boras, who talked up Fielder's "flexibility, dexterity, and athleticism," noting that his small strike zone gives him an advantage.  You have to think Boras will set the bar at seven years and be aiming for eight, so he'll need to be able to convince NL teams that Fielder will hold up through his early 30s.
  • The White Sox made a two-year offer to J.J. Putz early in the winter meetings, but it wasn't close to the $10MM the Diamondbacks offered.
  • The Twins "probably won’t be a factor in the Jose Reyes sweepstakes" due to the shortstop's $11MM salary, in the opinion of Rosenthal.  My take: if Reyes is dealt on deadline day he'll have $5.4MM remaining, and I'd be surprised if the Twins couldn't find a way to fit that in if money was the only holdup.
  • Stan Kasten "will step on toes," says one exec who thinks he'd be an excellent choice as the Dodgers' trustee.  On Wednesday, Commissioner Bud Selig said in a statement, "I will announce the name of my representative in the next several days."

Rosenthal On Fielder, Marlins, Yankees, Giants

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports brings us another edition of Full Count.  Here are some highlights..

  • Prince Fielder is off to a great start and one GM predicts that he'll be one of the most interesting free agents of all-time.  The GM says that Fielder runs hard and is more athletic than most people think.  He's about to turn 27 years old which means that he's about four-and-a-half years younger than Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols.  A team like the Cubs could use Fielder against Pujols, saying that if he doesn't meet their price, they could sign Fielder instead.
  • The Marlins are second in the National League in ERA and first in bullpen ERA by a wide margin.  Theyr'e going to have to keep winning with pitching as Hanley Ramirez is off to a slow start, Logan Morrison is out with an injured foot and Mike Stanton still hasn't found his form since coming back from a hamstring strain.  Last week, Rosenthal pointed out the potential availability of Mark DeRosa and this week he says that the veteran would be a perfect fit in Florida.
  • The Yankees will soon face some decisions regarding their rotation.  Kevin Millwood has an out in his contract if he's not in the majors by May 1st.  The club might have better options such as Adam Warren and possibly Hector Noesi or David Phelps.  In addition to those prospects, Carlos Silva is working his way back into shape and Phil Hughes is about to start a rehab assignment this week.
  • Miguel Tejada is off to a rough start in 2011 as he looks less-than-sharp in the field and is hitting just .209/.239/.328.  The Giants don't have any great internal options at shortstop, so Rosenthal says to keep an eye on Jose Reyes, Marco Scutaro, J.J. Hardy as possible trade targets.

Ryan Braun Links: Friday

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Details and reactions continue to trickle in on the sizable extension Ryan Braun signed with the Brewers on Thursday. Here are the latest:

  • Braun's extension includes at least $18MM in interest-free deferrals to be paid out in equal increments between 2022-31, blogs Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (per The Associated Press). All told, Milwaukee will be paying Braun till he's 47.
  • Braun's extension makes less sense than the one Troy Tulowitzki signed with the Rockies, and it may even be riskier than Ryan Howard's with the Phillies, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. The fact that Braun is a bat-first player and has a shaky glove at a non-premium defensive position doesn't bode well for the Brewers' side of the deal. Interestingly, Cameron suggests Braun could eventually move to first base, which is likely to be vacated by Prince Fielder, who is a free agent at season's end and is not expected to re-sign with Milwaukee
  • To that end, while most have surmised that the Brewers' immense financial commitment to Braun signifies the end of the Prince era in Milwaukee, Fielder himself hopes that is not the case, blogs McCalvy. "You never know," Fielder said. "I hope they have a little left for me."

Stark On Mets, Fielder, Nationals

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The latest from ESPN's Jayson Stark…

  • People all over baseball predict that Commissioner Bud Selig will eventually have to act on the Mets' situation, perhaps engineering a "soft landing" that would allow Fred Wilpon a graceful exit.
  • A couple executives Stark spoke to don't feel that Adrian Gonzalez's seven-year, $154MM extension with the Red Sox will affect Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder.  I imagine there are some teams that will try to say Fielder doesn't deserve significantly more than Gonzalez, but Gonzalez's contract wasn't signed on the open market and he's not represented by Scott Boras.  Stark says the "early buzz" is that Boras seeks $200MM over eight years for Fielder.  Of course, the early buzz around Boras clients is often way above what the player actually signs for.  A few candidates to sign Fielder, in the eyes of SI's Jon Heyman: the Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, Orioles, and Dodgers.
  • Though the Nationals could probably afford Pujols or Fielder, one source who has talked with them extensively told Stark they're more likely to spread their money around.

Reaction To Ryan Braun’s Extension

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The Brewers already had Ryan Braun under contract through 2015, but they doubled their commitment to their star outfielder today by signing him to a five-year, $105MM extension that will keep Braun in Milwaukee through the 2020 season.  The length and timing of the extension has already generated a lot of reaction from the baseball media.  To wit…

  • The extension is "a mistake," writes Dan Szymborski for ESPN.com (Insider subscription required), since Braun will be on the decline by the time his extension begins in his age 31 season.
  • Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com thinks the club "could have waited a year or two to extend" Braun and feels the extension is risky.  However, Knobler noted that mid-market teams like Milwaukee and Colorado (who signed Troy Tulowitzki to a similarly lengthy extension in November) face a risk in letting star players even approach free agency, citing Albert Pujols and the Cardinals as an example.  Knobler has a point — had St. Louis signed Pujols to a five-year, $105MM extension covering 2012-2017 after, say, the 2006 season, the Cards would look like geniuses right now.
  • Also in reference to the Tulowitzki contract, Fangraphs' Joe Pawlikowski notes that the Brewers, like the Rockies did in November, are betting on significant contract inflation in baseball over the next decade.
  • The overwhelming consensus from almost every writer is that Braun's extension solidifies the fact that the Brewers won't try to re-sign Prince Fielder this winter.  Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin, however, says that Braun's deal won't have much effect on what the Brewers may or may not do with Fielder, reports MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.

Quick Hits: Fielder, Braves, Mauer, Astros, Albers

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Links for Wednesday as the MLBPA announces that the jerseys for three rookies – Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg and Buster Posey – were among the top 20 sellers in 2010…

Morosi On The Brewers, Prince

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The Brew Crew emerged from the offseason as one of its winners, bolstered their starting rotation significantly and preserving a potent lineup. Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com checks in with some items of interest from Brewers camp, most notably how Prince Fielder's uncertain future shaped their offseason and the season to come.

  • This spring will probably be Fielder's last with the Brewers, writes Morosi, but after a fine offseason, the slugger and team are in good spirits as they embark on what could be a run at the postseason. Fielder and the Brewers are not currently in extension negotiations, and Morosi thinks that is a sound strategy, because it won't give the fan base false hope.
  • Because Fielder was prominent in trade rumors even as early as last season, many figured the Brewers wouldn't be able to acquire an ace pitcher this offseason without flipping him. They did, of course, landing not only an ace in Zack Greinke, but another solid mid-rotation arm in Shaun Marcum.
  • Fielder's situation with the Brewers is reminiscent of Carl Crawford's final season with the Rays in 2010, when the star player and small-market club knew they'd probably part ways after the season.
  • These Brewers and those Rays differ, however, in that although Milwaukee is gearing up for a postseason push with one of its best players on the brink of free agency, all of its other core players are either locked up to long-term deals or under team control, whereas Tampa Bay severed ties with a handful of other key contributors like Matt Garza, Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano and Joaquin Benoit.
  • The difference in hype between Fielder's and Albert Pujols' pending free agencies is "disproportionately large," writes Morosi, because although Pujols is the superior player, he's also four years older.

NL Central Links: Fielder, Pujols, Batista, Pirates

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The two biggest free agents available next winter could potentially come from the NL Central – Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. The Pujols negotiations have been well documented, and it was Fielder's turn to address the issue today when he arrived at the Brewers' camp. Though he declined to comment on his own contract situation, the Brewers slugger also received a few questions about Pujols. Asked whether, as a baseball fan, he wants to see the three-time MVP remain in St. Louis, Fielder replied that he'd like to see Pujols play "where he's happy," tweets MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. Here are the rest of today's NL Central links:

Quick Hits: Liriano, Guerrero, Fielder, D’Antona

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On this date in 2009, the Mariners welcomed Ken Griffey Jr. back to Seattle, signing him to a one-year deal. The Kid hit 19 homers in his age-39 season and re-signed with Seattle for one last season before the 2010 campaign. Last year went poorly for Junior, but he's back in Seattle as a consultant this year. Here are today's links…

  • Francisco Liriano told La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that he doesn't think his representatives had serious discussions with the Twins about a long-term deal during the offseason. (Twitter link).
  • Vladimir Guerrero says he hasn't thought about retirement, according to MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli (on Twitter). The Orioles finalized their deal with Vlad today.
  • Brewers manager Ron Roenicke told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that he doesn't expect Prince Fielder's contract status to be "an issue" for the team this year (Twitter link). Prince hits free agency for the first time after the coming season.
  • The Marlins released Jamie D'Antona, according to MLB.com's transactions page. They signed the third baseman last month after he spent two seasons in Japan. The 2003 second rounder clubbed 36 homers for the Yakult Swallows last year.
  • Tim Dierkes ranks this year's crop of third basemen from a fantasy perspective at RotoAuthority.
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