It’s been a frenetic week-plus for the Yankees, who over the past ten days have watched Juan Soto sign with the Mets and quickly pivoted to bring lefty Max Fried, closer Devin Williams and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger into the fold. There’s still more on the Yankees’ short-term to-do list, but Williams also offered a glimpse at a potential conversation that could be had in the coming months. Asked by the YES Network’s Jack Curry about the possibility of signing a long-term contract in the Bronx, Williams replied that it’s “definitely an option.” As it stands, he’s heading into his final season of club control before free agency.
Williams has been one of the game’s most dominant relievers since making his debut. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year ranks in the top-three of all big league pitchers (min. 200 innings) in both ERA (1.83, second) and strikeout rate (39.4%, third) since coming into the league.
Detractors might point to Williams surrendering what was effectively a season-ending home run to Pete Alonso against the Mets in the NLDS, but it’s rare for the righty to falter in that manner. Since 2020, his first full big league season, no pitcher in baseball has a higher win probability added than Williams. He’s been placed into 138 save/hold situations in his career and only blown the opportunity 10 times. Broadly speaking, Williams has done his best work in high-leverage spots, that lasting memory from the ’24 postseason notwithstanding.
A pitcher with Williams’ stuff and track record should have the opportunity to command one of the largest deals ever for a reliever next winter — provided he maintains that standard in his first season with the Yankees. Williams will pitch nearly all of this season at 30 years of age, turning 31 in September. Age and perhaps some health questions — he missed three months in 2024 with multiple stress fractures in his back — might keep him from quite reaching the same heights that Edwin Diaz (five years, $102MM) and his former teammate Hader (five years, $95MM) reached in free agency. Diaz was 29 in the first year of his contract. Hader was 30.
Still, Williams could reasonably expect to command at least four years, if not five, and he’d be able to push into the rarefied air of $16-20MM average annual values for relievers that have only been attainable for the game’s truly elite stoppers over the past few years. Diaz, Hader, Wade Davis, Liam Hendriks, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are the only relievers to command multi-year deals with AAVs of $16MM or more.
Whether the two sides will actually get into serious negotiations is an open question, but Williams’ ostensible openness is of some note. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in his final arbitration this coming season, and one would presume he and his reps at Klutch Sports are eyeing an annual salary of $18MM or more for his free agent seasons. It’d be a costly endeavor, but the Yankees have been willing to make huge commitments to the bullpen in the past (e.g. Chapman, Zack Britton).
Elsewhere in the Yankee bullpen is another potentially dominant arm: righty Jonathan Loaisiga. The Yanks more quietly re-signed the Nicaraguan-born righty this month. He’s currently eight months removed from an internal brace procedure to repair a UCL tear in his right elbow. Pitching coach Matt Blake told reporters today, including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, that the aim is for Loaisiga to be back in the Yankees’ big league bullpen by late April or early May.
The 30-year-old Loaisiga has only reached 50 innings in one big league season but has been excellent when healthy enough to take the ball. Dating back to 2020, the oft-injured righty sports a 2.98 ERA with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but a strong 6.5% walk rate and an elite 58% ground-ball rate. Since largely shelving his four-seamer in favor of a sinker, Loaisiga has averaged a blazing 98.1 mph on that sinker, also employing a changeup to help keep lefties off balance. It seems the current expectation is for Loaisiga to open the season on the injured list, but it may not be a particularly lengthy stay, based on the current trajectory of his rehab.
Of course, the headline-grabbing news of the week in the Bronx — beyond finalizing their eight-year deal with Fried and introducing him at a press conference today — was the Yankees’ completion of a trade to bring Bellinger to the Bronx. Rumors of talks between the Yankees and Cubs were plentiful, particularly once Soto signed with the Mets. The two teams finally lined up on a deal yesterday afternoon.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted not long after the trade that the Yankees had informed Bellinger he’ll be utilized in center field. General manager Brian Cashman pushed back on that today following the Fried presser (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that there’s no firm decision on Bellinger’s defensive home. He could play any of center field, left field or first base for the Yankees next season, and that decision will be contingent on what the Yankees are able to accomplish throughout the remainder of the offseason. FOX Sports’ Deesha Thosar adds that manager Aaron Boone spoke to Bellinger last night, and Bellinger informed his new skipper he’s open to playing wherever needed.
That flexibility, plus the flexibility provided by Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s ability to play multiple spots, leaves Cashman a vast array of possibilities for the remainder of the offseason. The Yankees are reportedly intrigued by several free agent first basemen but could look to the outfield market and also have other areas of depth from which they could trade. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com suggests that catcher Jose Trevino, for instance, could find himself on the trade block in the weeks ahead.
There’s been some speculation that the Yankees could deal from their catching depth this winter, and they’ve already moved one of the five catchers they had on their 40-man roster, sending Carlos Narvaez to the Red Sox for a minor league pitcher and some international bonus pool space. With Austin Wells emerging as the starter behind the plate and backstops J.C. Escarra and Jesus Rodriguez joining Trevino on the 40-man roster, there’s still a good bit of depth. (That doesn’t even include catcher/first baseman Ben Rice, or catching prospect Rafael Flores, who’s not on the 40-man but just had a big season in Double-A.)
To be clear, there’s no indication that Trevino is expressly being shopped. But catching depth is always at a premium around the league, and this offseason’s market is particularly thin. The Yankees are a surefire luxury payor, and while Trevino’s projected $3.4MM salary (again, via Swartz) isn’t excessive, moving him could cut the Yankees’ spending by around $7MM after accounting for the CBT.
The 32-year-old Trevino hit just .215/.288/.354 in 234 plate appearances last year but graded out as a plus-plus defender. The 2022 Platinum Glove winner is a free agent after the season, and with a wealth of young catching options in Wells, Escarra, Rodriguez and Flores, it’d be understandable if the Yanks leveraged that depth by moving Trevino for some bullpen help or depth in another area of need.
