Phillies Exploring Outfield, Right-Handed Relief Markets
The Phillies head into the offseason with a star-studded roster and substantial payroll obligation, though owner John Middleton has already expressed confidence that the 2025 payroll will increase. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has at multiple points hinted at potential trades rather than free agent pursuits, speaking of a need to be “open-minded” as he looks to augment a roster that’s been a perennial playoff club but fallen shy of a World Series win (or even a World Series appearance). The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reports that the Phils have signaled a desire to add an outfielder and at least one right-handed reliever.
As laid out in our Phillies Offseason Outlook, adding in the outfield is one of the most logical pursuits for a Phillies club that has established contributors at catcher (J.T. Realmuto), first base (Bryce Harper), second base (Bryson Stott), shortstop (Trea Turner), third base (Alec Bohm), right field (Nick Castellanos) and designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber). Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas offer options in the remaining two outfield spots, but the Phils aren’t likely to simply roll the same lineup back out in 2024 after another shorter-than-hoped season. Marsh and Rojas could form a platoon, as Marsh bats left-handed to the more defensively gifted Rojas’ right-handed bat. That’d open a path for one incoming outfielder, but Dombrowski’s repeated chorus of “open-minded” approaches to reshaping his offense have prompted natural speculation about trades.
From that standpoint, it’s hard to imagine deals involving Realmuto, Harper, Turner and Schwarber. All have been viewed as core pieces in Philadelphia. The Phillies would probably love to move on from the final two years and $40MM on Castellanos’ contract, but Castellanos is a poor defender who hasn’t hit nearly as well in Philadelphia as he did in his free-agent platform season with the Reds. The Phils would need to pay down a good portion of that contract and/or include a prospect to find a taker.
Bohm, Marsh, Stott and to a lesser extent Rojas are the big league position players who could more plausibly be flipped elsewhere as the Phillies try to reshape their identity. Gelb also lists lefty starter Ranger Suarez as a possibility. Their contractual statuses are as follows:
- Suarez: Controlled through 2025 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.9MM in 2025 (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Bohm: Controlled through 2026 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.1MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
- Marsh: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
- Stott: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3.5MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
- Rojas: Controlled through 2029, pre-arbitration in 2025
Obviously, the valuation on each player will vary. Suarez would be a one-year rental for a club and would require the Phils — already in need of a starter and likely hoping to dump the remaining two years and $36MM on Taijuan Walker‘s contract this offseason — to replace him. He posted a 3.46 ERA with strong strikeout (23.2%) and walk (6.5%) rates in 150 2/3 innings this season but also missed a month with a back injury and struggled from July through September. Plenty of teams would still love to plug him into their rotation.
Bohm is the most consistently productive but has the highest salary and lowest amount of club control remaining of the position players. He also cooled off considerably after a blistering start to the season. He was one of the game’s most productive hitters through early March (.360/.430/.576 in 142 plate appearances) before reverting to his usual brand of roughly average offense for the remainder of the season (.256/.302/.410 over his next 464 plate appearances). Bohm improved his glovework this year and hit righties better than usual but was still notably more productive against left-handed pitching.
Marsh can handle all three outfield spots but is best suited for left field. He’s never hit lefties well but is well above-average versus righties. He runs well and could probably pop 20 homers with a full season of at-bats, though that’d mean lesser rate stats and more plate appearances versus lefties. He’s hit 28 homers in 948 plate appearances across the past two seasons. Marsh is a useful part-time player, but his 31% strikeout rate since 2023 (and 32.8% career mark) is rather concerning, especially since he’s been platooned so often.
Stott is a plus defender and strong baserunner with 15-homer pop. He makes plenty of contact but has really only had one average season at the plate (2023), in addition to a pair of below-average campaigns during which he’s still been a solid overall contributor because of his glove and speed. If a team with budget problems and no concrete option at shortstop would view him as an outside-the-box candidate at short, his market could expand. Stott hasn’t graded as well there in 770 big league innings but has more than 2000 professional innings at short.
Rojas is an even more extreme case of the speed-and-defense skill set. He’s a plus center fielder with excellent speed but turned in just a .243/.279/.322 slash in 2024 (68 wRC+) and is a career .261/.298/.355 hitter (81 wRC+) in 527 big league plate appearances.
Dombrowski has publicly suggested that he needs to be open to trading “good players” in order to get talent in return. Speculatively speaking, Bohm feels like the most plausible fit, as he’s set to earn the most money, has the least club control remaining and plays a position (third base) where the free-agent market is quite thin this offseason. There could be paths to flipping Bohm for a bullpen arm, a back-of-the-rotation starter or an outfielder, and shedding his payroll could also free the Phillies to pursue other options at the hot corner or give them more money to address needs elsewhere on the roster.
Former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and longtime Phils beat writers Todd Zolecki and Jim Salisbury took a deep dive into the possibilities on the latest episode of their podcast. All three acknowledged that Dombrowski’s repeated phrases this offseason have not-so-quietly signaled a trade is likely. In addition to repeating the “open-minded” line on several occasions, Dombrowski has at least twice suggested the Phillies have enough star players on the roster. At his end-of-season press conference, Dombrowski said his club has “as many star players as about anybody in baseball” before adding that sometimes “the supporting cast” is where the biggest need sits.
Gelb notes in the previously referenced piece that Dombrowski doubled down on that thinking at this week’s GM Meetings. Asked if the Phils would be “big-game hunting” this winter, the Phils’ president replied: “Our ownership allows us to do a lot of things. But sometimes that’s not what you want. We have a lot of good star players on our team. So, read that as you would.”
Phillies Reinstate Ranger Suarez From 15-Day IL
The Phillies announced that Ranger Suarez has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list, and the left-hander will be on the mound to start today’s game against the Royals. Left-hander Tyler Gilbert was optioned to Triple-A yesterday in advance of Suarez’s planned return.
Suarez last pitched just over a month ago, when he allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 7-2 Phillies loss to the Twins on July 22. That was the fourth consecutive rough outing for Suarez, as his attempts to pitch through back pain were clearly having an adverse effect on his performance. Suarez skipped the All-Star Game to get some extra rest for his back problems, but after returning from the break to post that shaky start against Minnesota, the decision was made to place him on the IL for a fuller recovery period.
After emerging as a solid member of Philadelphia’s rotation in 2022-23, Suarez took a step forward as a potential ace by posting a 1.83 ERA over his first 16 starters and 98 1/3 innings of the 2024 campaign. Even with his last four starts boosting that ERA up to 2.87 over 119 1/3 frames for the season, Suarez’s overall numbers are still excellent, such as a 52.3% grounder rate, a 5.6% walk rate, and very strong soft-contact metrics. The lefty is more of a contact specialist than a strikeout pitcher, but his 24.1% strikeout rate is above the league average, sitting in the 62nd percentile of all pitchers.
Suarez’s production has been reflective of the Phillies’ season, as the Phils have also had some recent struggles after an outstanding first three months. Philadelphia is only 19-25 since July 1, and while the Braves have had their own share of struggles, Atlanta now sits only five games behind the Phillies for first place in the NL East. A five-game lead is still a pretty comfortable position to hold on August 24, and the Phillies can only hope that a healthy and effective Suarez can help get the club back into form during the pennant race and into October.
East Notes: Grissom, Suarez, Volpe, Lowe, De La Cruz, Shim
The Red Sox activated Vaughn Grissom from the 10-day injured list today and optioned the infielder to Triple-A, a move that The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey reported the team was considering last week. Grissom hasn’t played in the majors since June 1 due to a right hamstring strain, adding to his troubled first season in Boston. Between this injury and a left hamstring strain in Spring Training, Grissom has been limited to 23 Major League games, and a dismal .148/.207/.160 slash line in 87 plate appearances.
Some kind of decision was required since Grissom’s 20-day minor league rehab assignment was up tomorrow, but his .604 OPS in 58 Triple-A PA during that assignment didn’t exactly force Boston’s hand for a promotion. Even as the Sox continue to look for answers at second base, Grissom will need to perform better to earn another call-up, and it remains to be seen when (or even if) he might be back in the majors before 2024 is over.
More from both the AL and NL East…
- Ranger Suarez has been on the Phillies‘ 15-day injured list since July 24, and manager Rob Thomson told Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer and other reporters that Suarez isn’t expected back until after the end of the Phils’ next homestand (August 13-18). Suarez does appear to be making decent progress in his recovery from lower-back soreness, as he threw a 36-pitch bullpen session today. Perhaps another bullpen session and at least one live batting-practice session will be in order, and Suarez’s return could be delayed a bit longer if the Phillies opt to send him on a minor league rehab assignment. The left-hander was arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the first three months of the season before his back problems started to surface, and Suarez struggled to a 7.71 ERA in his last 21 innings prior to his IL placement.
- Anthony Volpe fouled a ball off his left foot during a plate appearance in the second inning of tonight’s 9-4 Yankees loss to the Angels, and the shortstop was eventually forced out of the game in the eighth inning. Manager Aaron Boone told the New York Post’s Greg Joyce and other reporters that x-rays were negative and Volpe just received a contusion, though more will be known in the coming days if Volpe will need to miss any time. Volpe has an exactly average 100 wRC+ over 516 PA this season, with a lot of streakiness baked into a .257/.304/.410 slash line. The second-year player has been hot at the plate recently and is still delivering standout defense at shortstop, so the Yankees can only hope the injury isn’t serious.
- It was a similar story for Rays outfielder Josh Lowe, as x-rays were also negative on Lowe’s right knee after he fouled a ball off himself in the first inning of tonight’s game. Lowe was in enough discomfort that he couldn’t take the field for the bottom of the first, but his injury was also deemed a contusion. A pair of oblique strains have already sent Lowe to the IL twice this season, and he has hit .236/.296/.410 over 213 plate appearances thus far in 2024, playing almost exclusively against right-handed pitchers.
- The Marlins made several trades during their pre-deadline selloff, and the deal that sent Bryan De La Cruz to the Pirates drew some “disagreement and discussion internally,” according to The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson and Craig Mish. De La Cruz isn’t arbitration-eligible until this coming offseason and is now under the Pirates’ control through 2027, but the Marlins’ analytics department wasn’t impressed by his long-term potential, “and a belief that De La Cruz wasn’t going to be a starter [in Miami] when the team is ready to contend.” The Fish also had a particular interest in prying right-hander Jun-Seok Shim away from Pittsburgh, as Shim’s spin rates and pitching arsenal impressed Miami evaluators. A Marlins source told Jackson/Mish that the team isn’t concerned about the shoulder issue that has thus far kept Shim from pitching in 2024.
Phillies Place Ranger Suarez On 15-Day Injured List
The Phillies announced that left-hander Ranger Suarez has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to lower back soreness. The placement is retroactive to July 24. Left-hander Kolby Allard has been called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to take Suarez’s spot on the active roster.
Suarez’s back has been bothering him for some time, as he passed on playing in his first All-Star Game in order to rest up over the break and hopefully return to form. This plan didn’t come to fruition, as Suarez allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk over 5 1/3 innings in his first start after the break, a 7-2 Phillies loss to the Twins on July 22. Losing Suarez for a minimum of 15 days anyway now makes it easy to criticize the Phils’ plan in hindsight, yet with nine days in between starts, it is understandable why Suarez and the team thought he’d have enough time to put this back issue behind him.
Philadelphia’s nine-game lead in the NL East gives the team some flexibility with injuries, of course, and this IL stint now gives Suarez plenty of time to fully get healthy for the stretch run and into October. With a 7.71 ERA in his last four starts and 21 innings, Suarez has seemingly been trying to pitch through discomfort for some time, though some regression was perhaps inevitable given his red-hot start to the 2024 season.
Even with his recent struggles, Suarez still has a 2.87 ERA across 119 1/3 innings, as well as barrel, walk, and hard-hit ball rates that rank among the league’s best. After delivering solid numbers as a member of the Phillies’ rotation in 2022-23, Suarez’s emergence into a borderline ace has only added to the team’s enviable pitching depth. Suarez, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez have all been good to great, and Spencer Turnbull and Tyler Phillips have also been good in some spot duty.
With Suarez, Turnbull, and Taijuan Walker all on the IL at the moment, Allard might get the next opportunity at filling a hole in the rotation. Allard signed a split contract with the Phillies during the offseason, but the six-year MLB veteran hasn’t distinguished himself with a 5.60 ERA over 72 1/3 minor league innings.
Walker is slated to throw a live batting practice today as he works his way back from blister problems, but he won’t be an option for the rotation until August, and after he has banked a minor league rehab start or two. This might put him roughly on the same timeline as Suarez assuming the back problem isn’t overly serious, so the Phillies could try to make do with Allard or Michael Mercado until reinforcements arrive. It is possible the team might seek out some rotation depth at the trade deadline, but that might be more likely to come in the form of a swingman type that could easily transition to the bullpen once the regular starters are healthy.
Dave Dombrowski Discusses Cristopher Sanchez Extension, Ranger Suarez’s Future
When the Phillies announced a four-year extension with young left-hander Cristopher Sanchez yesterday, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski revealed to reporters (including Matt Gelb of The Athletic) that the deal isn’t one they would have considered making if Sanchez and his agent, Gene Mato, hadn’t approached him about the possibility of a long-term deal. Even at that point, Dombrowski noted that he had some reservations about negotiating in-season.
“As much as we’d love to have him, during the middle of the season, it’s not normally something that I would like to get into,” Dombrowski said, as relayed by Gelb. “Because it can be a distraction for the player.”
Fortunately, the extension talks didn’t take very long as Gelb notes that it took just one week of negotiations before the sides settled on the four-year, $22.5MM guarantee with two club options that could extend the club’s window of control over Sanchez through the end of the 2030 campaign. The smooth negotiations between Dombrowski and Sanchez’s camp appear to have been crucial in pushing the deal across the finish line given the Phillies’ stated concerns that a protracted negotiation process could become a distraction from the season at hand.
That apparent trepidation with regards to in-season extensions could serve as a clue for how the Phillies will approach left-hander Ranger Suarez, who Gelb notes the Phillies have interest in extending. Suarez is currently slated to hit free agency following the 2025 season, but Gelb notes that talks have yet to progress between the sides and appear likely to wait until after the 2024 campaign has concluded. For his part, Dombrowski noted that the club “love[s]” Suarez and that they “hope that he’s part of the organization for a long time,” but also declined to discuss the state of negotiations with the lefty.
If the Phillies want to extend Suarez, it’s sure to come with a much heftier price tag than the Sanchez extension. Sanchez’s deal is more or less in line with the low end of what pitchers in his service time bracket have received in extensions, just ahead of the $18.8MM guarantee the Red Sox gave to right-hander Garrett Whitlock but a far cry from the $50M+ guarantees afforded to Boston’s Brayan Bello and Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene. Suarez, who will be just one year from free agency this offseason, is in a completely different realm of contract expectations.
The two hurlers to sign extensions with just one year to go before free agency in recent memory are Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo and Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios, both of whom did so shortly after being dealt to new teams the previous summer. Castillo signed a $108MM guarantee over five years with Seattle, while Berrios signed in Toronto on a seven-year deal that guaranteed him $131MM. Both hurlers had a much longer track record of success in the starting rotation at the time of their extensions than Suarez, who didn’t become a full-time starting pitcher until the 2022 season.
On the other hand, however, Suarez has undeniably been more dominant than either hurler in the years leading up to the start of extension negotiations. The lefty has pitched to a 2.91 ERA (142 ERA+) with a 3.39 FIP in 478 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2021 season. That eclipses the work of both Berrios (118 ERA+, 3.78 FIP) and Castillo (132 ERA+, 3.43 FIP) on a rate basis in their final four years before signing, though both Castillo and Berrios had 120+ additional innings of work over that same timeframe. Much of Suarez’s ultimate price tag will surely depend on how he finishes the 2024 campaign; the lefty currently leads all of MLB with an incredible 1.75 ERA through 15 starts this year and figures to find himself in the thick of the Cy Young conversation at year’s end if he can keep anything close to this production up over a full year.
Phillies Notes: Suarez, Sosa, Klentak
The Phillies were dealt a scare over the weekend when Ranger Suárez took a comeback line-drive off his throwing hand. While that raised initial concern about a potential injured list stint, the southpaw avoided any fractures.
Suárez played catch without issue today and is scheduled for a bullpen session on Wednesday, manager Rob Thomson told reporters (via the MLB.com injury tracker). The Phils will know after tomorrow’s throwing session whether Suárez can take the ball for his next start. The 28-year-old would be lined up opposite Sean Manaea and the Mets on Saturday in London.
Arguably the best pitcher in the majors through two months, Suárez carries an MLB-leading 1.70 ERA over 74 innings. He has punched out 28.5% of batters faced while running an excellent 53.7% ground-ball rate. Opposing hitters have turned in a pitiful .167/.225/.261 slash line over 277 trips to the plate. Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez have all been excellent, giving the Phillies perhaps the top rotation in MLB.
That’s one of myriad reasons the Phils have built a seven-game lead over the Braves in the NL East. Philadelphia’s 43-19 record matches the Yankees’ mark for the best in the majors. They haven’t missed a beat despite losing Trea Turner to a hamstring strain exactly a month ago.
Edmundo Sosa has excelled since taking over for Turner. Sosa is hitting .303/.367/.556 in 110 plate appearances. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have credited him with plus glovework in more than 200 shortstop innings. Sosa’s performance has unquestionably been propped up by a .394 average on balls in play — his 6.4% walk rate and 26.4% strikeout percentage are each a bit worse than the respective league marks — but he’s hitting for a lot more power than expected. Sosa has connected on four homers and triples apiece and picked up five doubles in only 33 games.
While he’s certainly playing well enough to stick in the lineup, he’s not going to displace Turner when the latter is healthy. Neither Bryson Stott nor Alec Bohm is offering much of an opportunity for Sosa to take over at second or third base. While Sosa has never started an MLB game in the outfield, Thomson suggested over the weekend the Phils could consider playing him in a corner outfield spot once Turner comes back.
“Absolutely [a possibility],” the manager told reporters (link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). “If he keeps hitting like this, it’s going to be tough to keep him out of the lineup. So, got to find a spot for him someplace.” The Phils subsequently lost Brandon Marsh to the injured list, leading them to call up the hot-hitting David Dahl to man left field. Nick Castellanos is playing everyday in right field. He has been a rare weak point in the Philadelphia lineup, struggling to a .214/.277/.342 line through 256 plate appearances.
Few would’ve anticipated the Phillies looking for ways to keep Sosa in the lineup when he was acquired in a relatively low-profile deadline deal two years ago. Philadelphia landed the infielder from the Cardinals in a one-for-one swap sending lefty JoJo Romero to St. Louis. It has turned out to a be a surprisingly consequential trade for both clubs, as Romero has developed into the Cards’ second-best reliever.
The Sosa acquisition is a nice feather in the cap for baseball operations president Dave Dombrowski and his staff. It’s one of a number of strong pickups for the Dombrowksi-led front office, as one would expect on the top team in the National League. As the Inquirer’s Scott Lauber explored over the weekend, the prior regime led by former general manager Matt Klentak also deserves some credit for putting part of the roster in place.
Klentak, who is now working in the Milwaukee front office, led baseball operations in Philadelphia for five seasons. He held the GM role between October 2015 and the end of the 2020 campaign. While a rebuilding Phils club didn’t make the postseason during Klentak’s tenure, Lauber observes that Philadelphia acquired Harper, Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, and Cristopher Sánchez, as well as drafting Stott and Bohm, during that five-year window.
As with any front office tenure, Klentak and his staff had some misses (e.g. selecting Mickey Moniak first overall in an admittedly weak 2016 draft and extending Scott Kingery). Still, there’s no question the Phils made a number of key moves in the 2010s that have contributed to the team’s success over the first half of this decade.
Lauber’s piece is a reminder that most organizations turn over front offices quickly enough that any good roster is a product of multiple regimes. Suárez and Nola were first acquired during Ruben Amaro Jr.’s GM stint. The Phils have added Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Sosa, and overhauled the bullpen since Dombrowski has been at the helm. Dombrowski’s group has also hammered out new deals to keep each of Nola, Realmuto and Wheeler in Philadelphia for the long haul.
Ranger Suarez Exits With Left Hand Contusion
TODAY: The swelling in Suarez’s hand has already significantly reduced overnight, Thomson told Matt Gelb and other reporters today. Suarez still won’t try throwing for a day or two for precautionary reasons.
JUNE 1: Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez exited his start against the Cardinals this evening after just two innings of work after he was struck in the hand by a 106 mph line drive off the bat of outfielder Alec Burleson. As noted by Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies initially termed the injury a left hand contusion before sending him for testing during the game. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb) shortly after the game that x-rays on Suarez’s hand were negative, although he was dealing with some swelling.
It’s not currently clear if Suarez’s hand will recover quickly enough for him to make his next start, although Thomson suggested that they “feel pretty lucky” to have seemingly dodged a more serious injury. The manager added that the club currently plans to give Suarez a few days before determining whether he’ll make his next start or if he’ll require a trip to the injured list. The lefty is currently slated to make his next start on June 8 against the Mets as part of the London series. Thanks to the two days off the team will have prior to the start of that series, Suarez was already slated to make his next start on extra rest.
The fact that Suarez appears to have avoided a major injury is surely a huge relief for Phillies fans. The 28-year-old hurler has been among the very best pitchers in all of baseball this year with a sterling 1.75 ERA through his first eleven starts this season, trailing only Reynaldo Lopez and Seth Lugo. That figure is good for a whopping 230 ERA+, and Suarez has enjoyed impressive peripherals that largely back up his excellent performance. In 72 innings of work to this point in the season, Suarez has struck out a career-best 28.4% of batters faced while walking just 5.4% and generating grounders at a whopping 53.8% clip. Among qualified pitchers, that groundball rate ranks seventh in the majors while K-BB% of 22.5% ranks twelfth.
Given how incredibly productive Suarez has been for the Phillies to this point in the season as they’ve surged to an MLB-best 41-18 record, even a brief absence for the lefty would be a noteworthy blow. Fortunately for the club, however, they have an tailor-made replacement option available to them in the event that the lefty does miss a start or two. Right-hander Spencer Turnbull took the ball for three impressive innings following Suarez’s exit, allowing no hits and no walks while striking out six batters. That sensational performance in relief tonight continues what has been a strong season in Philadelphia for Turnbull.
Entering play tonight, the righty had made twelve appearances for the Phillies including six starts and pitched to a fantastic 2.40 ERA with a 3.43 FIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. While Turnbull was pushed out of the rotation by the return of right-hander Taijuan Walker from the injured list earlier this year, the righty has remained an effect multi-inning relief option for the Phillies and after a 49-pitch outing this evening could reasonably take the ball for an abbreviated start in place of Suarez on Saturday in London if necessary.
Phillies Considering Multiple Ways To Keep Spencer Turnbull In Rotation Mix
Right-hander Spencer Turnbull has been a revelation in the Phillies’ rotation after filling in for the injured Taijuan Walker to begin the season. While Walker’s return from the injured list might have seemed like an obvious means of pushing Turnbull back into a long relief role earlier in the season, Turnbull has pitched so well that the Phils likely feel they can’t take him out of his current spot.
Indeed, manager Rob Thomson told the Phillies beat yesterday that the club will consider creative means of keeping Turnbull in the mix — be it piggybacking him with another starter or alternating between Sanchez and Turnbull in the fifth spot of the rotation depending on the opponent they’re facing (links via Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com).
The Phillies’ rotation, as a whole, has been remarkable this season. Philadelphia starters rank first in the majors with 190 2/3 innings pitched, second with a 2.50 ERA, second with a 26% strikeout rate, tenth with a 7% walk rate and third with a 52% ground-ball rate. Their collective 3.28 FIP is also second-best in MLB, and Phillies starters lead the league with a 3.22 SIERA. By virtually any measure, they’ve been outstanding.
Righties Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are both out to excellent starts. Wheeler, in particular, is sitting on a sub-2.00 ERA with his typical blend of plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Nola is sporting a 3.20 mark with a roughly average strikeout rate and a strong 7% walk rate. He’s been a bit homer-prone for what’s now a second straight season, but he’s generally pitched well in the first season of his new seven-year contract.
Left-hander Ranger Suarez has arguably been the team’s most effective starter. He touts a team-best 1.32 ERA through his first six turns on the mound. He’s logged 41 innings with a plus 27.8% strikeout rate and elite walk and ground-ball rates (3.5% and 60.8%, respectively). He won’t sustain a .189 BABIP and 92.9% strand rate, but the skill components of his performance have been terrific.
Fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez has been solid, recording a 3.68 ERA in 29 1/3 frames. His 22% strikeout rate is barely south of average, and while his 9.8% walk rate is on the high side, he’s helped mitigate some of those free passes with a massive 62.2% grounder rate. Righty Taijuan Walker just returned from the injured list and was hit hard in his first start, but he was a quality innings eater for the Phils last year (4.32 ERA in 31 starts) and is being paid $18MM this season to fill that role again.
Turnbull’s run-prevention thus far is right up there with Wheeler and Suarez. Through six starts, he’s pitched 32 1/3 innings of 1.67 ERA ball with an excellent 28.7% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate that’s about a percentage point better than average. He’s not sitting at Suarez/Sanchez levels with his ground-ball rate, but his mark of 49.4% is still comfortably north of the 43% league average.
A piggyback situation with Sanchez or some kind of alternating fifth starter role could make particular sense for Turnbull, who missed the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and pitched only 57 innings between the big leagues and minors last year. At some point, his workload could become a factor, as his body simply hasn’t endured a full season of innings since the 2019 campaign, when he started 30 games for the Tigers and pitched 148 1/3 innings.
The more straightforward solution would be to go to a six-man rotation, but Thomson has suggested in the past that the team doesn’t consider that a likely arrangement. However they proceed, it seems Turnbull — who has already wildly outperformed his modest one-year, $2MM deal — will continue to factor prominently into the team’s pitching staff as he gears up for what seems likely to be a much more lucrative trip through free agency again next winter.
Phillies Place Ranger Suárez On IL With Hamstring Strain
1:30pm: Suárez tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he has a Grade 1 strain and hopes to return in around 15 days.
12:20pm: The Phillies announced today that left-hander Ranger Suárez has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 16, with a right hamstring strain. Right-hander Andrew Bellatti was recalled in a corresponding move.
Suárez, 27, hits the injured list for the second time this year. He dealt with some forearm tightness in March and began the year on the IL, with the club describing that injury as an elbow strain. Despite that ominous-sounding diagnosis, he was able to return in mid-May and has since made 17 starts. He has a 3.88 earned run average in 97 1/3 innings, along with a 21.3% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate.
It’s unclear how long Suárez will be out of action this time, but the Phillies will have to proceed without him for at least a couple of turns through the rotation. Thankfully, they have been running a six-man rotation since acquiring Michael Lorenzen at the deadline and should be able to get by without worrying about replacing Suárez.
Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported a week ago that Cristopher Sánchez was likely to just get one more start before bumped either to the bullpen or the minors. He’s having a solid season with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts, but the Phils just have a lot of established starters in Suárez, Lorenzen, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker. But with Suárez set to sit things out for a while, Sánchez can stick around.
That’s fine for the time being but will leave the club a bit thin on depth until Suárez can return. Prospect Andrew Painter was supposed to be in the mix this year but required Tommy John surgery and won’t be back until late 2024 at the earliest. Bailey Falter was dealt to the Pirates for Rodolfo Castro, subtracting another depth starter. Griff McGarry is one of the club’s top pitching prospects but he was recently put on the development list at Triple-A after some struggles. His last start saw him face just seven batters, walking six and hitting another, all of them eventually coming around to score and leaving him with a shocking 50.62 ERA in two Triple-A outings this year. Nick Nelson is probably the next man up since he’s on the 40-man and has a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts this year, but his major league work has resulted in a career ERA of 5.38.
The Phils are in good shape overall, currently sporting a record of 66-56 and in possession of the top Wild Card slot in the National League. Even without Suárez, they have a strong group of five starters that can hopefully keep them afloat for the six remaining weeks of the season. Another rotation injury would start to make things feel a bit shaky but hopefully Suárez can return before that becomes a reality.
Phillies Reinstate Ranger Suarez From 15-Day Injured List
Ranger Suarez is set to make his season debut, as the Phillies reinstated the left-hander from the 15-day injured list. Suarez is slated to start tonight’s game against the Rockies. The corresponding move was made yesterday, when the Phillies optioned right-hander Luis Ortiz to Triple-A.
Left forearm tightness prematurely ended Suarez’s work with Venezuela during the World Baseball Classic, and the southpaw ended up starting the season on the 15-day IL due to what was described as an elbow strain. While missing almost a month and a half of action is no small matter, it is at least good news that Suarez avoided any of the more serious and longer-term injuries that can arise from forearm and elbow issues. Suarez looked pretty sharp over three minor league rehab outings, allowing just one earned run over nine total innings pitched at Double-A and Triple-A.
After beginning his first three big league seasons as a reliever, Suarez had a breakout 2021 season while working out of both the rotation and the bullpen, posting a 1.36 ERA over 106 innings. Given a full-time role in Philadelphia’s rotation in 2022, Suarez posted a 3.65 ERA over 155 1/3 frames, capitalizing on a 55.4% grounder rate and some solid hard-contact numbers despite below-average strikeout and walk rates. Suarez then took things up another level during the Phillies’ playoff run, delivering an excellent 1.23 ERA over 14 2/3 postseason innings.
Technically, the Phillies didn’t miss much from Suarez’s absence, since Matt Strahm pitched well in fill-in capacity in the rotation. However, Strahm was moved back to the bullpen in advance of Suarez’s return, as the Phils have opted to continue using Bailey Falter as a starting pitcher. Falter has only a 5.75 ERA over 36 innings and seven starts this season, though he isn’t alone in struggling, as Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Taijuan Walker have all gotten off to varying degrees of slow starts.