A couple of interesting rookie southpaws have burst onto the scene in recent months. RotoAuthority has an in-depth look at Rich Hill and Chuck James.
Rich Hill
Williamson Surfaces In Trade Talks
Mike Kiley of the Sun-Times notes that "Other teams are highly interested in Scott Williamson, as they have been all winter in trade talks with general manager Jim Hendry." In a separate article, Kiley quotes Jim Hendry saying that Matt Murton, Ronny Cedeno, and Rich Hill have been highly sought after as well.
Hill came up in talks for Barry Zito and a possible Miguel Tejada deal. As a 26 year-old, Hill is far past prospect status. Despite pitching college ball as late as 2002, he didn’t pitch above A ball until 2005. Ridiculously high strikeout totals have been negated by massive walk totals. Hill finally got the walks down to an acceptable level in the minors in 2005. If his success continues in Iowa, it’s likely he’s dealt before the All-Star break.
Cedeno was mentioned in talks for Brad Wilkerson, but that was before the Dodgers signed Rafael Furcal. Missing out on him has taken away one of the Cubs’ best trading chips, as they’re now forced to rely on Cedeno as their starting shortstop. Concern has been expressed over Cedeno’s hitting prior to 2005, but he may have turned a corner at age 22. He kept his contact rate near 90% and may be able to couple a .290 average with good defense. At this point, trading Cedeno makes very little sense.
Murton should be fairly expendable, as he may not project to hit for enough power to play left field regularly. He’s a 24 year-old with a sweet swing and a good eye. The average National League left fielder hit .272/.348/.457 last year, and PECOTA projects Murton at .278/.339/.411 for 2006. Sure, there’s room for growth, but the Cubs probably can’t wait around for it with below average production at a power position. You might think of him as Rondell White without the health issues. He’s better suited for a developing team like the Pirates or Royals.
Williamson does fit the win now mentality, and he’s probably the one Cubs reliever with the potential to dominate. I would keep him around as closer insurance and not worry about having too many setup men. At $2MM something like his 2002 season would be spectacular (2.92 ERA in 74 innings). I can’t see how the Cubs would get a more useful player in return unless perhaps it was to bolster their bench.
Cubs Still Discussing Zito, Tejada
Just got off the phone with Dave Kaplan, host of Sports Central on WGN Radio 720 out of Chicago. He gave me the latest on where the Cubs stand with Barry Zito.
Billy Beane is not sure whether he’ll deal Zito now or in July. However, the teams have had discussions recently, and the A’s like the Cubs’ farm system quite a bit. A deal for several of the Cubs’ young arms is a distinct possibility. The A’s aren’t looking for Matt Murton in the trade, but rather pitchers like Rich Hill, Angel Guzman, and Sean Marshall. There’s been plenty of debate on this site about Rich Hill’s future in the Major Leagues, but it’s a fact that many teams absolutely love him and are trying to pry him away from the Cubs. Hill has a ton of trade value. Anyway, sit tight on the Zito idea; nothing’s going down today.
Kaplan also mentioned that the Tejada trade is "not dead" for the Cubs. I don’t know which names are currently being tossed around, but rest assured the Cubs still have a chance at acquiring him.
Cubs Tejada Trade On The Table
An emailer reports that the Cubs are awaiting word from the Orioles on this offer:
Cubs get:
Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard
Orioles get:
Mark Prior, Rich Hill, Corey Patterson
This proposal is on the table. The report comes from Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000.
The pros and cons of this deal have been debated endlessly on this site. To restate my opinion: this move works as a "win now" move. The Cubs would add something like seven wins, so they’d need some additional upgrades or players outplaying projections to be favored as the division winner. A couple of options I like:
Platoon Jacque Jones with Matt Murton and acquire a slugging left fielder. Cliff Floyd would only become available if the Mets acquire Manny Ramirez. While the Cubs aren’t thrilled with Luis Gonzalez, he’s still a top ten LF and could push them over the top.
Trade for Jeff Kent. He’s one of the five best second basemen, and I’m firmly in the camp that Ronny Cedeno will not be a Major League success. Kent’s obviously a force in the Dodgers’ lineup, but the Cubs could come on strong and top the Mets’ weak offer. The Dodgers may want to get some young players in return before Kent’s contract is up. Just a thought.
Update: Prior-Tejada Trade
A couple of emailers have informed me of a radio report by Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000. Levine was the first to report the Juan Pierre trade earlier this month.
According to the emailers, the Cubs are waiting to hear back from the Orioles (Angelos will be involved) on this offer:
Cubs receive Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for Mark Prior, Rich Hill, and Corey Patterson.
Essentially, Patterson is a non-factor in discussing 2006 value. Hill would also not be likely to add much value to a Major League rotation next year. As I mentioned yesterday, this trade nets the Cubs seven wins if everyone plays at their 2005 level.
While beloved by Cubs fans, Prior’s history of elbow problems coupled with two freak injuries have limited his playing time for the team. He’s averaged 166 innings over the last three seasons. Interesting quote in Buster Olney’s blog for ESPN this morning:
"Executives with other teams are assuming, by the way, that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos would likely kill any proposal once club doctors review Prior’s recent medical history."
Bedard is certainly not a pitcher of Prior’s caliber, whether evaluated based on performance or durability. He’s averaged 140 innings over the last two seasons.
Any discussion surrounding Bedard’s potential inevitably references his first half of 2005. He posted a 2.08 ERA in 60 innings before the break. Most encouraging about the successful run was Bedard’s walk rate, which was around 2.1 per nine. He’s walked 4.1 per nine on average in the Major Leagues, and 3.3 per nine in the minors. According to Baseball Prospectus, lefty Bob Ojeda circa 1984 is the closest match to Bedard (although Bedard has better strikeout numbers). Ojeda had a nice decade in the 80s, and reached his peak with 18 wins and a 2.57 ERA for the World Champion 1986 Mets.
Baltimore Sun journalist Jeff Zrebiec’s opinion on all of this?
"The Orioles clearly want to keep the shortstop but seem to be at least willing to deal him if the price is right. However as of now, it appears that Tejada will remain an Oriole at least through Christmas."
