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Cafardo On Gonzalez, Oswalt, Crawford, Granderson

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is now on Twitter, under the handle @nickcafardo, so be sure to follow him. In the meantime, Cafardo also has a new column up for the Globe, in which he addresses the possibility of an Adrian Gonzalez trade and touches on a few other hot stove topics. Let's check out the highlights….

  • Cafardo isn't bullish on the Red Sox' chances of acquiring Gonzalez, noting that a trade would deplete Boston's farm system. Plus, they should face stiff competition from teams like the Mariners and Orioles.
  • The consensus among a few baseball people who spoke to Cafardo is that Padres GM Jed Hoyer will field trade offers for Gonzalez but won't necessarily deal the slugger. The situation could be similar to the Jays shopping Roy Halladay at last year's deadline, when Toronto wasn't sufficiently blown away by any offer.
  • The Padres are more likely to move Chris Young and Heath Bell.
  • Assuming the Sox don't land Gonzalez, Cafardo wonders if Carlos Pena might be an offseason target for Theo Epstein.
  • Roy Oswalt could be an attractive trade chip for the Astros, given the lack of top starting pitchers that will be available during the season. Cafardo thinks Houston will move their ace if they have to, adding that "it looks like they may have to."
  • The Brewers' extension of Yovani Gallardo is a good sign that they'll be aggressive in attempting to lock up Prince Fielder, though it will likely take a Mark Teixeira-esque contract to get it done.
  • Cafardo's "dark horse candidate" in this winter's Carl Crawford sweepstakes? The Angels.
  • The Red Sox looked into acquiring Curtis Granderson to replace Jason Bay, but were outbid by the Yankees.

Top Trade Chips: NL Central

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Let's continue our series looking at each team's top trade chips with the NL Central…

  • Astros: Teams can ask for Hunter Pence, but it's just not happening. 26-year-old catcher J.R. Towles and his five years of team control could be shopped with top prospect Jason Castro coming up behind him. If Houston falls way out of it, Roy Oswalt could be made available, but it would be a massive PR hit. He's owed $31MM through 2011 with a $16MM option ($2MM buyout) for 2012, and would have to approve any trade. Dealing him would signify the start of a full rebuilding effort. 
  • Brewers: Yovani Gallardo was never going to be moved in the first place, but his new contract extension all but guarantees it. Manny Parra seems to have fallen out of favor, but a lefty who can dial it up to the mid-90's will always have value on the trade market. He still has three years of arbitration eligibility ahead of him. 
  • Cardinals: The Cards dealt away most of their top prospects for Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa last year, so there's not much left to move. Triple-A catcher Bryan Anderson and Double-A outfielder Daryl Jones could be used in a trade since the big league team is pretty well set at those positions. Jones is more highly regarded of the two. Colby Rasmus is untouchable, obviously.
  • Cubs: Josh Vitters, the third overall pick in 2007, watched his name pop up in trade rumors involving Jake Peavy last year. If Chicago is willing to eat some of the $26.5MM left on his contract, there would be interest in Kosuke Fukudome.
  • Pirates: Neal Huntington has completely turned over the team's roster since taking over in September 2007, dealing away every notable veteran player. He did, however, build up a nice inventory of veteran relievers this offseason. Octavio Dotel, D.J. Carrasco, Brendan Donnelly, and Javier Lopez could all be used as trade fodder this summer.
  • Reds: Cincinnati is clearly a team on the rise, but one young player they could make available is the blocked Yonder Alonso. The power hitting first baseman masquerading as a left fielder in Double-A has all six years of team control left, and is the best trade chip in the division.

Roy Oswalt Discusses His Future

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Roy Oswalt is only 32 years old, but he's already talking about retirement, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. When asked about his future, Oswalt entertained the possibility of only pitching for a couple more seasons:

"I still love the game. I still love the competition. … But when I get finished with my contract, if I’m not pitching at the level I’m pitching at now, then I’m not going to come back and hurt the team."

Oswalt has been one of baseball's most dominant starting pitchers this century, posting a 3.23 ERA since breaking into the majors in 2001. Though his 4.12 ERA in 2009 was a career-worst, it's still hard to imagine him becoming ineffective enough that he'd want to retire when his current contract expires at age 34.

It's conceivable, however, that he might not be an Astro by 2012. Morosi compares Oswalt to Roy Halladay and Jake Peavy, two aces who were traded from non-contenders to contenders within the last year. The Astros have no immediate plans to rebuild or to deal Oswalt, but teammate Lance Berkman acknowledges, "I could see Roy saying, 'Hey, I want to go somewhere where I’m pitching for a championship.'"

Discussion: Carlos Lee

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Since their team won the NL pennant in 2005, Astros fans have had reason to feel frustrated.  A roster that has included the likes of Lance Berkman, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt and future Hall-of-Famer Craig Biggio has averaged just under 79 wins per year since that World Series appearance. 

This unimpressive stretch of play has led some fans to argue that club should give up on its hopes of contending over the next few seasons and focus on re-stocking its minor-league system.  However, as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes pointed out in his Offseason Outlook piece last October, this is a team that "could contend with the right free agent additions."  In the wide-open NL Central, the Astros seem to be perpetually just a player away from a playoff berth.  Even in 2006, when the club finished 82-80, they still finished just 1.5 games behind the eventual World Series-champion Cardinals.

This winter has provided the same mixed message from Houston, following its 74-88 record in 2009.  Owner Drayton McLane spoke about the importance of developing young talent in an interview with The Houston Chronicle's Richard Justice last June, but the Astros' offseason moves (trading for reliever Matt Lindstrom and signing free agents Brett Myers, Brandon Lyon and Pedro Feliz) make it seem like Houston is once again reloading rather than rebuilding.

If the Astros ever did commit to a rebuild, however, the most obvious candidates for a deal would be their three biggest contracts: Berkman, Oswalt and Carlos Lee.  Houston has $2MM buyouts on Berkman's contract in 2011 and Oswalt's contract in 2012, but most people agree that these two iconic Astros seem destined to retire with the franchise. 

That leaves Lee, who is owed $18.5MM per season through 2012.  The outfielder has performed well in his three years in Houston (.305/.354/.524) but may be showing signs of a decline.  His 26 homers and .831 OPS last season were his lowest totals in each category since 2002 and 2005, respectively.  MLB.com's Brian McTaggart says that between Lee's big contract, poor defense (a -4.6 UZR/150 according to Fangraphs), full no-trade clause and a desire to stay in Texas due to his ranch business, Lee is "about as untradeable as they come."

Let's speculate, for a moment, that Lee could be persuaded (probably through a cash bonus) to leave the ranch behind and agree to a deal.  Houston would almost surely have to eat at least half of Lee's remaining contract in any trade, but for a big-market AL team that could afford to pick up the other half, Lee would be an intriguing DH option.

Perhaps the best fit is Chicago.  Much has been written about Ozzie Guillen's DH-by-committee plan for the upcoming season, and the White Sox seem committed enough to the idea to pass on signing Jim Thome.  But if the Sox find themselves in a pennant race and their platoon of designated hitting options (Omar Vizquel?  Really?) isn't working out, then they could make a play for an everyday DH.  Lee would fit that bill and, since he spent the first six seasons of his career with the White Sox, might be amenable to waive his no-trade clause to return to a familiar location.

This scenario is, admittedly, a longshot.  It's much more likely that, no matter if the Astros choose to keep aiming for contention or commit to a proper rebuilding process, Lee will be a constant in the Astros' outfield.  You could say that Lee is Houston's answer to Vernon Wells — an unwieldly contract that is too big to trade and also takes up enough of the payroll to hamstring the team from making other moves.

Odds & Ends: Johnson, Kouzmanoff, Berkman

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Here's a stocking stuffed with news items on this Christmas Eve…

  • Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues breaks down the details of Nick Johnson's contract with the Yankees.  If Johnson reaches all of his incentives and his mutual option for 2011 is picked up, he can make a total of $14.5MM over his two-year deal.
  • MLB.com's Corey Brock says the Kevin Kouzmanoff trade talks that were swirling at the winter meetings have "cooled," and he thinks Kouzmanoff will remain a Padre unless San Diego receives an overwhelmingly good offer.  Perhaps the Padres want to keep Kouzmanoff to anchor their lineup in case they happen to deal away Adrian Gonzalez. 
  • In a discussion of Lance Berkman's future plans, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com says that "the older [Berkman] gets, I think the less likely he is to play elsewhere."  The Astros star is under contract next season and the team has a $15MM option on Berkman for the 2011 season that it will surely pick up if Berkman matches his 2009 line of .274/.399/.509.  McTaggart notes that the Astros have been hesitant to rebuild since they still feel they can contend with quality veterans like Berkman and Roy Oswalt in their relative primes.  As we learned last September, however, Berkman might rather retire after 2011 than be a burden on the organization.
  • From that same piece, McTaggart says Houston's acquistions of Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz last winter have made the team leery of signing another injury-prone starter like Ben Sheets, especially since Sheets would come at a much higher price.
  • Top Reds prospect Todd Frazier seems to be capable of playing anywhere on the field, but doesn't appear to be Cincinnati's answer at shortstop, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.
  • What team made the best trades in the 20th century?  According to one author, it was the Cleveland Indians.
  • Speaking of Cleveland, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com says the Tribe will put Rafael Perez back in the bullpen next season in spite of the left-hander's excellent starting outings in winter ball.

Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Pitching, Rays, Padres, DeRosa

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Let's see what Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has for us in his latest Full Count video…

  • The free agent market for starting pitching doesn't look very enticing, but the trade market could be intriguing. Toronto will almost certainly field offers for Roy Halladay again, the Cubs could trade Carlos Zambrano, and the Braves could deal Javier Vazquez if they decide to keep Tim Hudson.
  • The Astros might finally be ready to move ace Roy Oswalt. While he does have a full no-trade clause, Oswalt has told the club in the past that he'd be willing to consider moves to St. Louis, both Chicago teams, Texas, and Atlanta.
  • Tampa Bay moved Scott Kazmir when his value was high, so perhaps it's unlikely they'd move B.J. Upton when his value is low. Regardless, many teams covet the elder Upton brother because at his best he's a righty slugger with superior defense in center field. In his place, the Rays could go in-house with Fernando Perez or Desmond Jennings.
  • Keep in mind that if Tampa were to trade an outfielder, they might prefer to deal Carl Crawford. Upton is three years away from free agency; Crawford just one.
  • The Padres' recent surge has GM Kevin Towers thinking the team could be a surprise contender next year. The question is this: how low will the team's payroll go? The subtraction of Brian Giles would leave the payroll in the mid-$30MM range, but there are some that believe the team will move either Adrian Gonzalez or Heath Bell and get down into the mid-$20MM range. Ownership has yet to give the front office a firm payroll number for 2010.
  • The Cardinals want to re-sign Mark DeRosa, but his offseason wrist surgery changes the equation. DeRosa is fully expected to be ready by the start of Spring Training, but he'll come with some risk. If he was fully healthy, he would be nearly as coveted as Chone Figgins, but supply and demand will work in DeRosa's favor because there are very few quality third baseman available. Plus, he can also play a ton of other positions.

McLane “Vows To Evaluate” Astros

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In the aftermath of Roy Oswalt's critical comments on the play of his teammates, Astros owner Drayton McLane seemed to take issue with Oswalt's concerns as well as agree with them:

“We're going to review every part — from the players to the manager, to the farm system. We haven't picked out any one part of it. Roy had great frustration, and that's part of a champion. He wants to win as much as anybody else. These are problems you need to solve internally rather than through the media.”

McLane didn't give a hard answer on whether he believed manager Cecil Cooper would return for next season. McLane also seemed curious about whom Oswalt was referring to, as the righty didn't name names when he questioned the drive of some fellow teammates.

As much as McLane was disappointed in Oswalt, he seemed to place much value on Oswalt's criticisms and it doesn't appear he wants to punish the pitcher, who is under contract through at least 2011 with the Astros. We probably could have predicted it, but it looks like the Astros could be due for a major facelift come winter.

Odds And Ends: Oswalt, Cubs, Chapman, Padres

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More links as we get ready for the final weekend of August baseball…

  • Jermore Solomon of the Houston Chronicle wouldn't be surprised if Roy Oswalt wants out of Houston.
  • Tony Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that Rich Harden and Aaron Heilman aren't the only Cubs to have been claimed on waivers. 
  • Aroldis Chapman continues to practice in Spain and is close to establishing residency in another country, according to Jorge Arangure Jr. of ESPN.com. The Cuban pitcher is considered one of the best amateur talents in the world.
  • Arangure Jr. reports that the Padres are close to signing Fabel Filpo for a six-figure deal.

Odds And Ends: Cordero, Schmidt, Griffey

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Another round of links…

  • Reds GM Walt Jocketty tells MLB.com's Mark Sheldon that no team has inquired on Francisco Cordero.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports has a series of predictions for the season's final month. He doesn't expect Jake Peavy to win more than a single game for the White Sox. 
  • MLB.com's Ken Gurnick reports that Jason Schmidt's season is over. Schmidt, who won three games in as many seasons for the Dodgers, hinted he may retire.
  • Ken Griffey Jr. tells C. Trent Rosecrans of CNati.com he's having the time of his life back in Seattle. He's open to staying with the Mariners, but says he understands if the team decides to move on. Check out the entire interview – it's a great read.
  • Roy Oswalt says there's "a dead feeling" in the Astros clubhouse, according to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle. Justice argues that "the people in charge have screwed up the franchise."
  • Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox evaluated Billy Wagner in depth before trading for him.

Odds And Ends: Giambi, Wagner, Oswalt, Snyder

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Another round of links…

  • Ed Price of AOL FanHouse reports that the Rockies officially announced the signing of Jason Giambi to a minor league deal.
  • Kiley McDaniel of Baseball Prospectus says some clubs watch Latin American teams in the Little League World Series to establish preliminary lists of interesting players.
  • Billy Wagner pitched an inning for the Mets today and Gameday says he hit 95 mph. He threw nine of his 19 pitches for strikes and picked up two strikeouts, walking one without allowing a hit. The Red Sox were surely watching the outing since they have another day to work out a deal with the Mets for Wagner.
  • Roy Oswalt tells MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that time is running out and he wants the Astros to win soon, while he's around with Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and possibly Miguel Tejada. 
  • As MLB.com's Steve Gilbert reports, Chris Snyder is glad to have signed an extension when he did.
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