NPB Posting Window Expanded From 30 To 45 Days
The posting system that allows players to move from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball to the major leagues has been expanded from 30 days to 45 days, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
If a player in Japan wants to pursue a contract with an MLB club, the NPB team can “post” the player. In the past, this opened up a 30-day window where the player and his representatives could negotiate with all 30 major league teams. If they didn’t find a contract to their liking, the player would return to their NPB club. If they did find a deal, the signing team would also owe money to the NPB team, on top of what they pay the player. The amount of that fee would be relative to the size of the contract given, with 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.
It seems that this system is all still in place, just with the window being extended from 30 days to 45 days. This year, this will impact at least two players: Masataka Yoshida and Shintaro Fujinami. It’s also perhaps worth pointing out that this will not impact another NPB player in Kodai Senga, as he has accrued enough service time to become a proper free agent that is not subject to the posting system. Yoshida’s window will reportedly start tomorrow and go until January 20. Fujinami was posted on December 1, meaning his window should be closing around January 15.
Assuming this is a permanent change and not a temporary exception, it will also have a bearing on all future NPB players who are posted in the future.
NPB’s Hanshin Tigers Post Shintaro Fujinami
The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have officially posted right-hander Shintaro Fujinami, according to Yakyu Cosmopolitan.
It was reported back in October that the Tigers planned to post Fujinami. Now that it’s been made official, he and his representatives will have 30 days to secure a major league contract. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Tigers, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given to Fujinami. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Tigers a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Tigers for 2023.
It’s possible that Fujinami will find that there’s a wide variance in the level of interest he gets from major league teams, given the inconsistency he’s shown thus far in his career. He was a highly-touted young arm in his high school days, often compared to Shohei Ohtani as the top names in their draft class. In 2013, he was thrown into the Tigers’ rotation despite being just 19 years old at the time. He ended up throwing 137 2/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 126 strikeouts, 44 walks and a couple of hit batters. He continued producing strong results over the next two seasons, tossing 163 innings in 2014 with a 3.53 ERA and then 199 frames in 2015 with a 2.40 ERA.
From that point on, however, control issues put a damper on his performance. He walked 70 batters in 169 innings in 2016 and then gave out 45 free passes in only 57 innings in 2017, getting sent down to the minors. He’s been shuttled between the farm and the big leagues since then, struggling to show enough improved command to keep a regular job. That was still the case in 2022, as he made 25 appearances on the year but only 16 of them were at the NPB’s top level. In those 16 appearances for Hanshin, he logged 66 2/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA, striking out 65 while walking 21 batters. He faced a total of 276 batters, meaning his walk rate was 7.6%, which is actually respectable. For reference, this year’s MLB average was 8.2%. That’s a huge improvement over 2021, where he walked 40 out of 238 batters faced for a rate of 16.8%.
Taking all this into consideration, the 30 MLB clubs will likely be able to reach different conclusions of Fujinami’s value. The most bullish teams can point to his early career success and 101 mph fastball. Despite his long tenure in NPB, he’s just 28 years old, turning 29 in April. He also showed some improved control this season. For those who take the pessimistic side, they could point to the fact that Fujinami hasn’t been able to maintain a consistent level of performance for years.
There’s little doubt that Fujinami has some skills to bring to the table. The question will be how much major league teams believe they can use their tools to harness Fujinami into a useful pitcher in North America. It makes him an intriguing wild card addition to the offseason and we will see how his market plays out over the remainder of the year.
Hanshin Tigers To Post Shintaro Fujinami
The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to make right-hander Shintaro Fujinami available to MLB clubs this offseason via the posting system, according to a report from Kyodo News. Back in September, reports from Japan (Japanese link from Sponichi Annex and English link from The Japan Times) relayed his desire to attempt the move to North America. It now seems that the club will grant him his wish.
Fujinami, who will turn 29 in April, figures to be an interesting addition to this winter’s free agent market, though a very difficult one to predict. Going back to his high school days, Fujinami was a highly-touted young arm that was often compared to Shohei Ohtani when they were in the same draft class. Fujinami was first mentioned on MLBTR back in 2012, showcasing the hype that has followed him around for some time.
He lived up to that hype in his first few seasons but subsequently spent a long time battling control issues. (This eight-minute video from Yakyu Cosmopolitan is recommended for those who want a rundown of Fujinami’s whole career, though it was made before the 2022 season.) In 2013, Fujinami was thrown directly into the Tigers’ rotation in his age-19 campaign. He responded to that bold assignment by throwing 137 2/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 126 strikeouts, 44 walks and a couple of hit batters. He followed that up with two more excellent seasons, throwing 163 innings in 2014 with a 3.53 ERA and then 199 frames in 2015 with a 2.40 ERA.
In 2016, he was still fairly effective, but took a step back from that 2015 peak. His ERA went up to 3.25 and he walked 70 batters in 169 innings. The control issues would only grow from there, as he issued 45 walks in just 59 innings in 2017, eventually getting sent down to the minors. He’s been up-and-down between the minors and the Tigers in each season since then, struggling to earn enough trust to maintain a more permanent spot in Hanshin.
That was still the case here in 2022, as Fujinami made nine appearances down on the farm and 16 with the Tigers. In those 16 appearances for Hanshin, he logged 66 2/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA, striking out 65 while walking 21 batters. He faced a total of 276 batters, meaning his walk rate was 7.6%, which is actually respectable. For reference, this year’s MLB average was 8.2%. That’s a huge improvement over 2021, where he walked 40 out of 238 batters face for a rate of 16.8%.
All of this seems to make Fujinami a high-risk, high-reward possibility for teams in free agency. On the one hand, he has hit 126 km/h (1o1 mph) with his fastball and has been elite in the past. Despite his decade-long track record, he’ll be just 29 years old next season. On the other hand, he has struggled so badly in recent years that the Tigers haven’t let him be anything more than a depth arm since 2016. There is likely to be a wide variance in how he is viewed by MLB clubs, with some completely uninterested and others willing to take a chance on his arsenal with the aim of helping him harness his tools.
Once he is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Tigers, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given to Fujinami. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Tigers a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Tigers for 2023.
Baseball Leagues In Korea, Japan Face Ongoing Coronavirus Challenges
5:08pm: Although NPB had been pushing for an April 24 start, Sports Nippon in Japan reports that league officials are now questioning whether that’s a viable target date (English-language link via Tokyo-based baseball journalist Jim Allen). Half of the league’s team presidents met this morning and acknowledged that a later date is now likely necessary, although a specific timeframe has yet to be agreed upon. Allen notes that league officials have run simulations of scenarios that include May 8 and May 15 starts to the season.
Meanwhile, in a full column for Yonhap, Yoo reports that the KBO is contemplating weekly Monday doubleheaders as the league mulls season lengths of 124 games, 117 games and 108 games (all declines from the traditional 144-game length). Major League Baseball, of course, has discussed similar use of frequent doubleheaders in an effort to maximize the number of games possible in a shortened season of its own.
9:15am: With COVID-19 raging in the United States, it’s hard not to glance longingly across the Pacific. In Korea and Japan, authorities have seemingly gained control over the spread of the virus — so much so that their highly respected baseball leagues are working toward a resumption of play.
That’s not to say the effort is without challenges. Ramping up economic activity while holding back the tide of disease requires flexibility that’s flatly inconsistent with baseball’s typically regimented structure. Both the Korea Baseball Organization and Nippon Professional Baseball have had to adapt their plans on an ad hoc basis.
The KBO had been tracking toward an Opening Day about three weeks from today. That’s no longer on the table, as Yonhap’s Jeeho Yoo reports (Twitter links). Now, with teams still prevented from traveling away from their own facilities, April 21st is scheduled for the start of the preseason.
There’s still hope that the KBO campaign will get underway by early May, if not a bit sooner. But the league has seemingly scrapped plans to get in all 144 games. Per Yoo, teams expect to play as few as 108 contests.
For the time being, the Japanese schedule has not been altered further since initially being pushed back from March 20 to April 24. But the NPB has come across its own problems. Star Hanshin Tigers right-hander Shintaro Fujinami and two teammates have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to the Associated Press (Kyodo News was first to report on Fujinami). They are the first three professional baseball players in Japan to test positive for the illness.
There have been spectator-less exhibition contests taking place in Japan, but the Tigers canceled their farm team practice game Thursday in response to this news. They’ve also suspended all practice through April 1 and ordered their players and staff to self-quarantine. It’s obviously possible to imagine that this worrisome development could ultimately contribute to another delay for the league. More broadly, the news on the Hanshin players represents another grim reminder of what the world is up against and how challenging it is to carry on with pro sports or any other aspects of normal life at this time.
In other less-than-promising news out of Asia, China has halted attempts to resume professional sports, Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. It seems the overarching concern lies in the potential for transmission between asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus. That decision and reasoning further underscore the remaining uncertainty in dealing with this disease. Even when progress is finally made in getting sports and other business activities back online, it’s all but certain that new hurdles will arise.
Just what this all means for Major League Baseball in 2020 is anyone’s guess, though it’s obviously not promising. But it’s important to bear in mind that the situation is evolving at an exceptionally rapid pace that largely defies prediction. Remarkably, it was less than three weeks ago that MLB halted Spring Training.
Otani, Fujinami Selected In NPB Draft
3:11pm: Otani can sign with an MLB team at any time, an MLB official confirmed to Ben Badler of Baseball America. Signing with an MLB team at this stage would likely irk the Fighters and other Japanese baseball officials, however. If the Fighters sign Otani then attempt to post him, he'd still count against teams' $2.9MM international bonus pools, Badler reports. Fujinami expects to start his professional career in Japan, according to Badler.
8:10am: Shohei Otani, the Japanese pitching prospect who's drawing interest from Major League teams, won't be able to sign with an MLB franchise before April of 2013. As expected, the Nippon Ham Fighters selected the 18-year-old right-hander with the first overall pick in the NPB draft, Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker reports (on Twitter).
The Fighters won’t necessarily be able to sign Otani, who has said he intends to pursue a career in MLB. They have until the end of March to agree to terms with the hard-throwing prospect under an agreement between MLB and NPB. If Otani declines to sign with the Fighters, MLB teams will be able to bid on him as a free agent, though they’ll be subject to international spending restrictions.
The Hanshin Tigers selected Shintaro Fujinami, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America (on Twitter). Some scouts prefer Fujinami to Otani, Badler writes.