Yadier Molina

Cardinals icon Yadier Molina remains in a staredown of sorts with the only team he’s ever known, seeking a two-year deal while the Cards idle amid budgetary uncertainty. Molina noted earlier in the winter that he’s heard from as many as five other clubs, but his preference has clearly been to return to the Cardinals.

Now, in an interview with La Vida Baseball’s Polo Ascencio (hat tip: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), Molina suggests that if he doesn’t receive the right offer, he feels he could retire with his head held high after a terrific 17-year career. Molina made clear that he’s still working out, getting ready as if he’ll play in 2021.

It’s hard to imagine Molina walking away when he’s previously been so adamant about continuing his career, but the Cardinals haven’t been aggressive in their efforts to retain Molina or longtime teammates Adam Wainwright and Kolten Wong — both free agents themselves (Wong after having his 2021 club option declined).

The rest of the market for Molina’s services, meanwhile, may have changed a bit since receiving that early interest. The Mets signed James McCann, taking them out of the market for another catcher. Molina previously mentioned interest from the Padres, but they picked up Victor Caratini from the Cubs. The Yankees are still in a staring contest of their own with DJ LeMahieu and don’t appear willing to spend elsewhere until there’s resolution on that front. The Angels, another club mentioned by Molina himself, could still be a fit but are surely looking at the pitching market and perhaps at J.T. Realmuto, who also remains unsigned. The Phillies would make another on-paper fit, but they, too, are intently waiting to see where Realmuto’s market goes. Goold notes that the Nationals have also been in touch with Molina, but they’ve been focused on adding more thump to their lineup to this point.

At the very least, it seems likely that once Realmuto is off the board, Molina will receive strong one-year interest as the clear best alternative on the market. Whether that pushes the Cardinals or another club toward the two-year term he prefers can’t be known at this time, nor can the level of potential gamesmanship in his comments about retirement be known. However, with about $155MM in career earnings under his belt already, Molina won’t feel financially obligated to simply take the best offer out there if he doesn’t feel he’s being valued appropriately on the market.

There’s no denying that Molina’s bat has tailed off over the past two seasons. He remains extremely difficult to strike out (13 percent) but has posted a combined .268/.310/.388 batting line since Opening Day 2019 — a pronounced decrease from the .282/.330/.434 output he notched from 2016-18. Molina’s bat is still roughly in line with that of the league-average catcher (by measure of wRC+), however, and he’s still revered for his ability to call a game, frame and block pitches, and control baserunners.

The Cardinals and franchise icon Yadier Molina have had a protracted back-and-forth in contract talks this winter. Molina’s agent Melvin Roman opened the offseason noting they were looking for a two-year deal. St. Louis’ front office has stayed in contact with the 38-year-old’s camp but has apparently not yet put forth an offer at what Molina deems an appropriate price point.

Despite being at something of an impasse, there appears to be continued mutual interest. Cardinals ownership still wants to bring back Molina and right-hander Adam Wainwright, whom they consider “legacy players” in the franchise’s history, notes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. For his part, St. Louis remains “where (Molina) wants to be,” a source tells Goold (Twitter link).

The veteran catcher told Mas Que Pelota last month that, in addition to his talks with the Cardinals, he has heard from the Yankees, Mets, Padres and Angels. (The Mets have since signed James McCann, no doubt taking them out of the running). That gives the nine-time All-Star alternatives if the Cards’ front office holds firm on their current valuation. Molina returning to St. Louis still seems a desirable fit for both sides, but they’ll need to bridge their apparent gap on terms to make that happen.

Cardinals icon Yadier Molina has heard from three non-Cardinals clubs since free agency has begun, agent Melvin Roman tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, Roman did not specify which clubs have reached out to this point in the very young offseason. So far, this is shaping up to be something of a public-facing free agency for Molina, as Roman has already been willing to put his name on record in stating his client’s hope for a two-year deal as well.

It’s difficult to picture Molina in the uniform of any club other than the Cardinals after the 38-year-old has spent the past 17 years in St. Louis. But Molina raised some eyebrows among Cardinals fans earlier this year when he declared that he wanted to continue playing and was willing to do so even if it meant signing with a new club. Roman previously indicated that Molina is seeking a two-year deal that would carry him through age 40 and, perhaps, through the end of his likely Hall of Fame career.

While we don’t know yet — and may not know — which clubs plan to seriously pursue Molina, it’s not hard to look around the league and pick out some potential landing spots. There’s already speculation about the Yankees moving on from Gary Sanchez, for instance, and there would be few more dramatic ways to flip the narrative in the Bronx than to move from the free-swinging, defensively challenged Sanchez to the high-contact, defensively revered Molina.

Elsewhere, the Mets are on the lookout for a new backstop with Wilson Ramos hitting free agency. The Phillies could lose J.T. Realmuto this winter, and the Marlins are also expected to explore catching upgrades on the heels of their surprising playoff berth. The Angels could use an upgrade, too. Wherever Molina does go, it’s logical to expect him to sign with a club that has clear postseason aspirations — one that can offer him regular playing time. The nine-time Gold Glover and four-time Platinum Glover already has a pair of rings on his resume and surely would like to add another in the waning stages of his career.

Molina’s bat has tailed off since a solid 2018 showing, but he’s put together a respectable .268/.310/.388 batting line with 14 home runs and a lowly 13 percent strikeout rate through 608 plate appearances over the past two seasons. That level of production — an 86 wRC+ — is well south of the league average hitter but isn’t far off the mark of the performance of the average catcher. And Molina still has well-regarded defensive numbers, including above-average framing marks, a 31.7 percent caught-stealing rate since 2019 and his reputation as one of the game’s premier game callers.

One of the more intriguing storylines — or, for Cardinals fans, more unsettling storylines — to follow this winter will be the future of Molina and fellow Cardinals icon Adam Wainwright. Both aim to continue playing in 2021, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last month that the longtime teammates have even discussed the possibility of signing elsewhere as a pair in free agency. All else equal, both would prefer to return to St. Louis, it seems. However, the Cards do have a younger option behind the plate in Andrew Knizner, and there’s already been plenty of talk about the financial limitations the front office might face this offseason.

Cardinals icon Yadier Molina saw his three-year, $60MM contract expire at season’s end, which could potentially send him into the open market for the first time in his 17-year big league career. There’s sure to be mutual interest in extending the relationship, but agent Melvin Roman tells MLB Network’s Jon Heyman that his client is seeking a two-year deal (audio link to Heyman’s Big Time Baseball Podcast with Tony Gwynn Jr.; Molina talk begins at 34:30).

Whether the Cardinals are interested in handing out a multi-year deal for Molina at this stage of his career is unclear. Though he’s a nine-time All-Star and nine-time Gold Glove winner, Molina’s bat has tailed off dramatically in recent seasons. He’s still managed to hit for a respectable average, but his already meager walk rate has begun to head south. And while his 13.5 percent strikeout rate from 2020 was still considerably lower than the league average, Molina sat around nine to ten percent in that category at his peak. This year’s 78.1 percent contact rate was far and away the lowest of his career, and his 12 percent swinging-strike rate was easily a career-high.

Overall, Molina has turned in a .268/.310/.388 slash over the past couple of seasons. It should be noted that while that translates to an 86 wRC+ — composite production that is 14 percent worse than an average hitter when weighted for home park and league — Molina’s production is right in line with the average MLB catcher in that span. In addition to being a solid bat relative to his positional peers, he also threw out a strong 31.7 percent of attempted base thieves over the past two seasons. In terms of pitch framing, both FanGraphs and Statcast consider Molina slightly above-average dating back to 2019.

It’s not the same package that Molina brought to the table at his peak — or even when he signed that three-year deal prior to the 2018 season — but it’s not as though he has completely wilted. A rather considerable pay cut in terms of annual salary still seems all but certain, whether on a one- or two year deal and whether with the Cardinals or a new team. Not long ago, talk of Molina signing anywhere other than St. Louis would have seemed outlandish, but he said in the run-up to this year’s shortened season that he intended to keep playing even if it meant signing with a new team.

For the Cardinals, the decision comes down to retaining an icon and potential Hall of Famer or turning things over to a younger option like Andrew Knizner. The 25-year-old Knizner (26 in February) has yet to produce in the big leagues but has long rated as one of the organization’s more promising farmhands. He carries a .283/.362/.453 slash through 341 Triple-A plate appearances and a near-identical OPS in a more pitcher-friendly Double-A setting.

At some point, one would imagine the Cardinals would like to see Knizner take on a larger role — even if Molina were to re-sign for a year or two. Further down the organizational pipeline is 20-year-old Ivan Herrera, who could also factor into the equation by the 2022 time frame through which Molina apparently hopes to be extended.

The Cards have some decisions to make regarding both Molina and longtime teammate Adam Wainwright, each of whom seems intent on playing another year at least. The organization must also decide on Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM option, although it’s possible they’ll look to restructure that arrangement.

Those decisions come not only against the backdrop of league-wide revenue losses stemming from the absence of fans in 2020, but at a time when the Cards have $109.75MM guaranteed to eight players and an arbitration class with some key names up for raises. It’s a tough situation for president of baseball ops John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch to navigate — particularly as they look to account for the loss of righty Dakota Hudson (Tommy John surgery) and augment a lineup that produced middling results in 2020.